Volume 3 | Autumn 2017
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Defence and National Security Strategic Review 2017
2017 DEFENCE AND NATIONAL SECURITY STRATEGIC REVIEW STRATEGIC REVIEW REVIEW STRATEGIC 2017 Defence and National Security Strategic Review 2017 DICoD - Bureau des éditions - Octobre 2017 Defence and National Security Strategic Review 2017 1 DEFENCE AND NATIONAL SECURITY STRATEGIC REVIEW PREFACE BY THE PRESIDENT OF THE REPUBLIC . 5 FOREWORD BY THE MINISTER FOR THE ARMED FORCES . 9 INTRODUCTION . 13 PART A A RAPID AND LASTING DETERIORATION OF THE STRATEGIC ENVIRONMENT . 16 1 . A challenged international system . 17 1 .1 . The multilateral order called into question . 17 1 .2 . Deconstructing the European security architecture . 19 1 .3 . Tensions within the European Union . 19 2 . France, exposed and committed . 20 2 .1 . Simultaneous and long-term commitments . 20 • Direct attacks on the national territory . 20 • The vulnerable Sahel-Sahara region . 21 • A destabilized Middle East . 22 • Tensions on Europe’s eastern and northern flanks . 23 2 .2 . Risk areas . 24 • The Mediterranean and its southern regions . 24 • Balkans . 24 • Sub-Saharan Africa . 25 • Asia . 26 3 . Multiple weaknesses aggravating crises . 29 3 .1 . Demographic and migration pressure . 29 3 .2 . Climate change . 29 3 .3 . Sanitary risks . 30 3 .4 . Energy rivalries . 30 3 .5 . Organised crime . 31 4 . Disruptive technological and digital innovation . 31 4 .1 . A double risk: technology lag and operational levelling . 32 TABLE OF CONTENTS TABLE 4 .2 . Growing threats in cyberspace . 33 2 DEFENCE AND NATIONAL SECURITY STRATEGIC REVIEW PART B NEW FORMS OF WARFARE AND CONFLICT . 36 1 . Harder, more disseminated threats . 37 1 .1 . Entrenchment and spread of jihadist terrorism . 37 1 .2 . Accelerating proliferation . 38 • Spread of conventional weaponry . -
Never Again: International Intervention in Bosnia and Herzegovina1
Never again: 1 International intervention in Bosnia and Herzegovina July 2017 David Harland2 1 This study is one of a series commissioned as part of an ongoing UK Government Stabilisation Unit project relating to elite bargains and political deals. The project is exploring how national and international interventions have and have not been effective in fostering and sustaining political deals and elite bargains; and whether or not these political deals and elite bargains have helped reduce violence, increased local, regional and national stability and contributed to the strengthening of the relevant political settlement. This is a 'working paper' and the views contained within do not necessarily represent those of HMG. 2 Dr David Harland is Executive Director of the Centre for Humanitarian Dialogue. He served as a witness for the Prosecution at the International Criminal Tribunal for the Former Yugoslavia in the cases of The Prosecutor versus Slobodan Milošević, The Prosecutor versus Radovan Karadžić, The Prosecutor versus Ratko Mladić, and others. Executive summary The war in Bosnia and Herzegovina was the most violent of the conflicts which accompanied the break- up of Yugoslavia, and this paper explores international engagement with that war, including the process that led to the signing of the Dayton Peace Agreement. Sarajevo and Srebrenica remain iconic symbols of international failure to prevent and end violent conflict, even in a small country in Europe. They are seen as monuments to the "humiliation" of Europe and the UN and the -
Managing the Security Dilemma in East Asia: the Potential and Performance of Confidence Building Measures*
Managing the Security Dilemma in East Asia: The Potential and Performance of Confidence Building Measures* Tamotsu Fukuda Strategic and Defence Studies Centre Research School of Pacific and Asian Studies The Australian National University Canberra December 2002 Abstract: After the end of the Cold War, many states in East Asia embarked on robust military build-up and defence modernisation programs. In light of this development, one of the main security concerns in the region stemmed from the fact that such weapons acquisition programs were conducted with a relative lack of transparency with respect to regional states’ objectives and motivations. In an effort to prevent the military build- up/modernisation programs from escalating into a regional arms race, East Asian countries began implementing confidence building measures (CBMs) mainly through the ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF). This paper assesses the performance of the CBMs that have been implemented in the region and examines their potential in preventing arms races. The paper finds that most measures implemented in East Asia are transparency measures which do not require strong political commitment, while the implementation of constraint measures remains minimal. The region, thus, has not reached a point where it is sufficient to prevent arms races. One of the important reasons for this insufficient level of cooperation stems from the lack of the acceptance of the status quo. Without the acceptance of the status quo or an agreement that the status quo is changed only through peaceful means, CBMs and arms control arrangements will be of nominal value in East Asia. Introduction Overcoming the security dilemma is one of the most important challenges that states in East Asia face today in the twenty-first century.1 Since the end of the Cold War, the region has made efforts to ease the security dilemma. -
International Decision-Making in the Age of Genocide: Srebrenica 1993-1995
International Decision-Making in the Age of Genocide: Srebrenica 1993-1995 Rapporteur Report The Hague June 29-July 1, 2015 International Decision-Making in the Age of Genocide: Srebrenica 1993-1995 Conference in The Hague, June 29 – July 1, 2015 Executive Summary Leading decision-makers from more than a dozen countries gathered in The Hague from June 29 to July 1, 2015, to consider the failure of the international community to protect the United Nations “safe area” of Srebrenica, resulting in the largest massacre in Europe since World War II. Participants included three former members of the UN Security Council, senior government and UN officials, peacekeepers, and eyewitnesses to the Srebrenica tragedy. Over the course of four working sessions, a public event, and numerous informal meetings, conference participants focused on a disastrous two-year chain of events that culminated in the fall of Srebrenica in July 1995. They examined the origins of the “safe area” policy, beginning with the March 1993 visit to Srebrenica by French General Philippe Morillon, and disagreements on how to implement frequently impractical Security Council resolutions. The discussion revealed sharp disconnects between the policy-makers in New York, the peacekeepers on the ground, and the people the “safe areas” were ostensibly designed to keep safe. “I saw this conference as a kind of truth commission,” said Srebrenica survivor Muhamed Duraković. “Twenty years on, we cannot bring back the dead, but we can learn from what went wrong in Srebrenica. If we are not able to go through the process of fact-finding, truth, and reconciliation, we may be creating problems for future generations.” At the heart of the international failure in Srebrenica in July 1995 was the inability of the major powers to devise and implement an agreed strategy for ending the defining conflict of the immediate post-Cold War era. -
The Utility of Military Force and Public Understanding in Today's Britain
EUROPE HEW STRACHAN, RUTH HARRIS The Utility of Military Force and Public Understanding in Today’s Britain For more information on this publication, visit www.rand.org/t/RRA213-1 The Global Strategic Partnership (GSP), a consortium of research, academic and industry organisations that is led by RAND Europe, provides ongoing analytical support to the UK Ministry of Defence. Published by the RAND Corporation, Santa Monica, Calif., and Cambridge, UK © Copyright 2020 RAND Corporation R® is a registered trademark. RAND Europe is a not-for-profit research organisation that helps to improve policy and decision making through research and analysis. RAND’s publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors. Limited Print and Electronic Distribution Rights This document and trademark(s) contained herein are protected by law. This representation of RAND intellectual property is provided for noncommercial use only. Unauthorized posting of this publication online is prohibited. Permission is given to duplicate this document for personal use only, as long as it is unaltered and complete. Permission is required from RAND to reproduce, or reuse in another form, any of its research documents for commercial use. For information on reprint and linking permissions, please visit www.rand.org/pubs/permissions. Support RAND Make a tax-deductible charitable contribution at www.rand.org/giving/contribute www.rand.org www.randeurope.org Table of Contents Table of Contents .................................................................................................................................... -
Defence and Security After Brexit Understanding the Possible Implications of the UK’S Decision to Leave the EU Compendium Report
Defence and security after Brexit Understanding the possible implications of the UK’s decision to leave the EU Compendium report James Black, Alex Hall, Kate Cox, Marta Kepe, Erik Silfversten For more information on this publication, visit www.rand.org/t/RR1786 Published by the RAND Corporation, Santa Monica, Calif., and Cambridge, UK © Copyright 2017 RAND Corporation R® is a registered trademark. Cover: HMS Vanguard (MoD/Crown copyright 2014); Royal Air Force Eurofighter Typhoon FGR4, A Chinook Helicopter of 18 Squadron, HMS Defender (MoD/Crown copyright 2016); Cyber Security at MoD (Crown copyright); Brexit (donfiore/fotolia); Heavily armed Police in London (davidf/iStock) RAND Europe is a not-for-profit organisation whose mission is to help improve policy and decisionmaking through research and analysis. RAND’s publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors. Limited Print and Electronic Distribution Rights This document and trademark(s) contained herein are protected by law. This representation of RAND intellectual property is provided for noncommercial use only. Unauthorized posting of this publication online is prohibited. Permission is given to duplicate this document for personal use only, as long as it is unaltered and complete. Permission is required from RAND to reproduce, or reuse in another form, any of its research documents for commercial use. For information on reprint and linking permissions, please visit www.rand.org/pubs/permissions. Support RAND Make a tax-deductible charitable contribution at www.rand.org/giving/contribute www.rand.org www.rand.org/randeurope Defence and security after Brexit Preface This RAND study examines the potential defence and security implications of the United Kingdom’s (UK) decision to leave the European Union (‘Brexit’). -
Is There a European Way of War?: Role Conceptions, Organizational Frames, and the Utility of Force Pascal Vennesson, Fabian Breuer, Chiara De Franco and Ursula C
Armed Forces & Society http://afs.sagepub.com Is There a European Way of War?: Role Conceptions, Organizational Frames, and the Utility of Force Pascal Vennesson, Fabian Breuer, Chiara de Franco and Ursula C. Schroeder Armed Forces & Society 2009; 35; 628 originally published online May 8, 2008; DOI: 10.1177/0095327X08317994 The online version of this article can be found at: http://afs.sagepub.com/cgi/content/abstract/35/4/628 Published by: http://www.sagepublications.com On behalf of: Inter-University Seminar on Armed Forces and Society Additional services and information for Armed Forces & Society can be found at: Email Alerts: http://afs.sagepub.com/cgi/alerts Subscriptions: http://afs.sagepub.com/subscriptions Reprints: http://www.sagepub.com/journalsReprints.nav Permissions: http://www.sagepub.com/journalsPermissions.nav Citations http://afs.sagepub.com/cgi/content/refs/35/4/628 Downloaded from http://afs.sagepub.com at Freie Universitaet Berlin on October 7, 2009 Armed Forces & Society Volume 35 Number 4 July 2009 628-645 © 2009 Inter-University Seminar on Armed Forces and Is There a European Society. All rights reserved. 10.1177/0095327X08317994 Way of War? http://afs.sagepub.com hosted at http://online.sagepub.com Role Conceptions, Organizational Frames, and the Utility of Force Pascal Vennesson Fabian Breuer Chiara de Franco Ursula C. Schroeder European University Institute—Robert Schuman Centre for Advanced Studies Europe is the region of the world where the network of security institutions is the densest. Yet, these institutions did not erase differences about conceptions of force employment among European countries and between European countries and the United States. -
Are the Armed Forces Understood and Supported by the Public?
Original Article Armed Forces & Society 1-26 ª The Author(s) 2014 Are the Armed Forces Reprints and permission: sagepub.com/journalsPermissions.nav DOI: 10.1177/0095327X14559975 Understood and afs.sagepub.com Supported by the Public? A View from the United Kingdom Lindsey A. Hines1, Rachael Gribble2, Simon Wessely2, Christopher Dandeker2 and Nicola T. Fear2 Abstract Despite the importance of public opinion in supporting the military and their missions, little is known about how the UK public perceive their Armed Forces. This article reviews and evaluates available research and opinion poll data of public attitudes toward the UK military and situates the evidence within the civil–military gap literature. Current evidence suggests public regard for the UK Armed Forces is high despite low levels of support for the Iraq and Afghanistan missions. Public understanding of the work of the Armed Forces is limited. Nonetheless, the United Kingdom’s long history of military deployments may have given the public an ‘‘intuitive understanding’’ of the basic realities of the military compared with other European states. There are indications of differences in attitudes between the UK Armed Forces and wider British society, but no firm evidence that the civil–military ‘‘gap’’ has become a ‘‘gulf’’ as claimed by some military leaders. Keywords public opinion, UK armed forces, civil–military gap 1 King’s College London, London, UK 2 King’s Centre for Military Health Research (KCMHR), King’s College London, UK Corresponding Author: R. Gribble, King’s Centre for Military Health Research, Weston Education Centre, 10 Cutcombe Road, London SE5 9RJ, UK. Email: [email protected] Downloaded from afs.sagepub.com at Kings College London - ISS on March 4, 2015 2 Armed Forces & Society Introduction The UK Armed Forces have a well-established tradition of engagement in military operations that extends back into Britain’s imperial past. -
The Utility of Force Is Contextual Written by Andreas Aagaard Nohr
The Utility of Force is Contextual Written by Andreas Aagaard Nohr This PDF is auto-generated for reference only. As such, it may contain some conversion errors and/or missing information. For all formal use please refer to the official version on the website, as linked below. The Utility of Force is Contextual https://www.e-ir.info/2012/04/06/the-utility-of-force-is-contextual/ ANDREAS AAGAARD NOHR, APR 6 2012 Nothing New Under the Sun: The Utility of Force is Contextual ‘With the advent of each new revolution in the art of war men have predicted the collapse of contemporary civilization or the end of war itself.’ William W. Kaufmann (1956)[1] When new weaponry technology, in combination with other organizational, systematic and technical changes, is introduced onto the battlefield, it often brings about a transformation of the very conduct of war; what scholars have conceptualised as a ‘revolution of military affairs.’[2] Despite the free usage of the word ‘revolution’, what Robert Jervis calls the ‘nuclear revolution’ brings about ‘a change that turns established truths about the relationship between force and statecraft on their heads.’[3] The ‘established truth’ Jervis talks about is that force, as it was known before the nuclear age, has utility. What does it mean to say that force has utility? To give a Clausewitzian answer, we should emphasize two central points: First, the very definition of war, that ‘War is … an act of force to compel our enemy to do our will.’[4] Second, that ‘war is merely the continuation of policy by other means.’[5] Thus, the two points imply that war is a clash of political wills and that force is a tool of policy that has utility to the extent that it can compel our enemy to do our will. -
Is Non-Offensive Defence Viable As a Strategy for National Security?
Is Non-Offensive Defence Viable As A Strategy For National Security? IS NON-OFFENSIVE DEFENCE VIABLE AS A STRATEGY FOR NATIONAL SECURITY? By LTC Goh Nichola ABSTRACT Non-Offensive Defence is described as the strategic defence stance taken by a country to safeguard its naonal interest. Without being aggressive with its military, a naon can potenally deter an aggressor, through its uneven terrain or foreign alliances. In this essay, the author states that non-offensive defence is viable as a strategy only if certain condions are fulfilled—suitable geography, benign strategic environment and neutral foreign outreach. In the case of Japan, the author puts forth an addional condion, which is alliances. In the author’s opinion, however, Non-Offensive defence is only fully viable if the three condions highlighted above are met. Keywords: Offence, Defence, Strategic, Condions, Environment INTRODUCTION extremist groups) and hybrid taccs (e.g. cyberaacks) employed by state actors. Non-Offensive Defence (NOD) gained prominence during the height of the Cold War in the late 1970s to THE CONCEPT OF NON-OFFENSIVE early 1980s as a strategy for the North Atlanc Treaty DEFENCE Organisaon (NATO). Nevertheless, it has remained The concept of NOD originated during the Cold prominent in the discourse of security studies ll today. War as a means of defusing tensions between NATO In this essay, the author argues that non-offensive and the Warsaw Pact. Moller and Wiberg idenfied the defence is viable as a strategy for naonal security only three purposes of NOD as follows: (1) to facilitate arms if the following condions are fulfilled—the geography control and disarmament, (2) to strengthen peace by of the country in queson must defensible, its strategic ruling out pre-empve and prevenve wars, and (3) to environment must be benign, and the way it conducts 1 provide effecve yet non-suicidal defensive opons. -
Strategic Utility of Sof Within 21St Century Warfare
UPSTREAM ENGAGEMENT: STRATEGIC UTILITY OF SOF WITHIN 21ST CENTURY WARFARE Maj M.E. McCloskey JCSP 42 PCEMI 42 Exercise Solo Flight Exercice Solo Flight Disclaimer Avertissement Opinions expressed remain those of the author and Les opinons exprimées n’engagent que leurs auteurs do not represent Department of National Defence or et ne reflètent aucunement des politiques du Canadian Forces policy. This paper may not be used Ministère de la Défense nationale ou des Forces without written permission. canadiennes. Ce papier ne peut être reproduit sans autorisation écrite. © Her Majesty the Queen in Right of Canada, as © Sa Majesté la Reine du Chef du Canada, représentée par represented by the Minister of National Defence, 2016. le ministre de la Défense nationale, 2016. CANADIAN FORCES COLLEGE – COLLÈGE DES FORCES CANADIENNES JCSP 42 – PCEMI 42 2015 – 2016 EXERCISE SOLO FLIGHT – EXERCICE SOLO FLIGHT UPSTREAM ENGAGEMENT: STRATEGIC UTILITY OF SOF WITHIN 21ST CENTURY WARFARE Maj M.E. McCloskey “This paper was written by a student “La présente étude a été rédigée par un attending the Canadian Forces College stagiaire du Collège des Forces in fulfilment of one of the requirements canadiennes pour satisfaire à l'une des of the Course of Studies. The paper is a exigences du cours. L'étude est un scholastic document, and thus contains document qui se rapporte au cours et facts and opinions, which the author contient donc des faits et des opinions alone considered appropriate and que seul l'auteur considère appropriés et correct for the subject. It does not convenables au sujet. Elle ne reflète pas necessarily reflect the policy or the nécessairement la politique ou l'opinion opinion of any agency, including the d'un organisme quelconque, y compris le Government of Canada and the gouvernement du Canada et le ministère Canadian Department of National de la Défense nationale du Canada. -
Lawful Targets in Cyber Operations: Does the Principle of Distinction Apply?
Lawful Targets in Cyber Operations: Does the Principle of Distinction Apply? Noam Lubell 89 INT’L L. STUD. 252 (2013) Volume 89 2013 International Law Studies 2013 Lawful Targets in Cyber Operations: Does the Principle of Distinction Apply? Noam Lubell* I. INTRODUCTION M ost of the advanced and largest militaries in the world have, in recent years, devoted significant attention and resources to the development of the capacity to conduct—and defend against—cyber operations.1 Indeed, cyber operations feature prominently in discussions over future conflicts and are expected to be an inherent and major component in the waging of war. But cyber operations are not usually conducted with the aim of straightforward material harm to a physical military object and their use * Reader in Law, School of Law, University of Essex, United Kingdom. Thanks are due to Marty Ehlenbach for research assistance and to Audrey Guinchard for comments. 1. U.S. Department of Defense, Department of Defense Strategy for Operating in Cyberspace (2011), available at http://www.defense.gov/news/d20110714cyber.pdf; HM Government, Securing Britain in an Age of Uncertainty: UK Strategic Defence and Securi- ty Review (2010), available at http://www.cabinetoffice.gov.uk/sites/default/files /resources/strategic-defence-security-review.pdf; NATO Cooperative Cyber Defence Centre of Excellence, http://www.ccdcoe.org/; Jim Wolf, China Cyber Capability Puts U.S. Forces at Risk: Report, REUTERS (Mar. 8, 2012, 12:11 AM), http://www.reuters.com /article/2012/03/08/us-china-usa-cyberwar-idUSBRE8270AF20120308; Nick Hopkins, Militarisation of Cyberspace: How the Global Power Struggle Moved Online, GUARDIAN (Apr.