On the Interaction Between Atmosphere and Vegetation Under Increasing Radiative Forcing a Model Analysis
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Climate Models and Their Evaluation
8 Climate Models and Their Evaluation Coordinating Lead Authors: David A. Randall (USA), Richard A. Wood (UK) Lead Authors: Sandrine Bony (France), Robert Colman (Australia), Thierry Fichefet (Belgium), John Fyfe (Canada), Vladimir Kattsov (Russian Federation), Andrew Pitman (Australia), Jagadish Shukla (USA), Jayaraman Srinivasan (India), Ronald J. Stouffer (USA), Akimasa Sumi (Japan), Karl E. Taylor (USA) Contributing Authors: K. AchutaRao (USA), R. Allan (UK), A. Berger (Belgium), H. Blatter (Switzerland), C. Bonfi ls (USA, France), A. Boone (France, USA), C. Bretherton (USA), A. Broccoli (USA), V. Brovkin (Germany, Russian Federation), W. Cai (Australia), M. Claussen (Germany), P. Dirmeyer (USA), C. Doutriaux (USA, France), H. Drange (Norway), J.-L. Dufresne (France), S. Emori (Japan), P. Forster (UK), A. Frei (USA), A. Ganopolski (Germany), P. Gent (USA), P. Gleckler (USA), H. Goosse (Belgium), R. Graham (UK), J.M. Gregory (UK), R. Gudgel (USA), A. Hall (USA), S. Hallegatte (USA, France), H. Hasumi (Japan), A. Henderson-Sellers (Switzerland), H. Hendon (Australia), K. Hodges (UK), M. Holland (USA), A.A.M. Holtslag (Netherlands), E. Hunke (USA), P. Huybrechts (Belgium), W. Ingram (UK), F. Joos (Switzerland), B. Kirtman (USA), S. Klein (USA), R. Koster (USA), P. Kushner (Canada), J. Lanzante (USA), M. Latif (Germany), N.-C. Lau (USA), M. Meinshausen (Germany), A. Monahan (Canada), J.M. Murphy (UK), T. Osborn (UK), T. Pavlova (Russian Federationi), V. Petoukhov (Germany), T. Phillips (USA), S. Power (Australia), S. Rahmstorf (Germany), S.C.B. Raper (UK), H. Renssen (Netherlands), D. Rind (USA), M. Roberts (UK), A. Rosati (USA), C. Schär (Switzerland), A. Schmittner (USA, Germany), J. Scinocca (Canada), D. Seidov (USA), A.G. -
The Lagrangian Chemistry and Transport Model ATLAS: Validation of Advective Transport and Mixing
Geosci. Model Dev., 2, 153–173, 2009 www.geosci-model-dev.net/2/153/2009/ Geoscientific © Author(s) 2009. This work is distributed under Model Development the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License. The Lagrangian chemistry and transport model ATLAS: validation of advective transport and mixing I. Wohltmann and M. Rex Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research, Potsdam, Germany Received: 25 June 2009 – Published in Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss.: 3 July 2009 Revised: 15 September 2009 – Accepted: 2 October 2009 – Published: 2 November 2009 Abstract. We present a new global Chemical Transport In the context of this paper, numerical diffusion is defined Model (CTM) with full stratospheric chemistry and La- as any process that is triggered by the model calculations grangian transport and mixing called ATLAS (Alfred We- and behaves like a diffusive process acting on the chemical gener InsTitute LAgrangian Chemistry/Transport System). species in the model. Typically, numerical diffusion will be Lagrangian (trajectory-based) models have several important spurious and unrealistic, e.g. present in every grid cell with advantages over conventional Eulerian (grid-based) models, the same magnitude. We do not consider processes as nu- including the absence of spurious numerical diffusion, ef- merical diffusion here which are deliberately introduced into ficient code parallelization and no limitation of the largest the model, e.g. to mimic the observed diffusion. Eulerian ap- time step by the Courant-Friedrichs-Lewy criterion. The ba- proaches suffer from numerical diffusion because they con- sic concept of transport and mixing is similar to the approach tain an advection step that transfers information between dif- in the commonly used CLaMS model. -
ESM-Tools Version 4.0: a Modular Infrastructure for Stand-Alone
ESM-Tools Version 4.0: A modular infrastructure for stand-alone and coupled Earth System Modelling (ESM) Dirk Barbi1, Nadine Wieters1, Paul Gierz1, Fatemeh Chegini1, 3, Sara Khosravi2, and Luisa Cristini1 1Alfred Wegener Institute Helmholtz Center for Polar and Marine Research, Bremerhaven, Germany 2Alfred Wegener Institute Helmholtz Center for Polar and Marine Research, Potsdam, Germany 3Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany Correspondence: Luisa Cristini ([email protected]) Abstract. Earth system and climate modelling involves the simulation of processes on a wide range of scales and within and across various compartments of the Earth system. In practice, component models are often developed independently by different research groups, adapted by others to their special interests, and then combined using a dedicated coupling software. This 5 procedure not only leads to a strongly growing number of available versions of model components and coupled setups, but also to model- and HPC-system dependent ways of obtaining, configuring, building, and operating them. Therefore, implementing these Earth System Models (ESMs) can be challenging and extremely time consuming, especially for less experienced mod- ellers, or scientists aiming to use different ESMs as in the case of inter-comparison projects. To assist researchers and modellers by reducing avoidable complexity, we developed the ESM-Tools software, which provides 10 a standard way for downloading, configuring, compiling, running and monitoring different models on a variety of High Perfor- mance Computing (HPC) systems. It should be noted that the ESM-Tools are equally applicable and helpful for stand-alone as for coupled models. In fact, the ESM-Tools are used as standard compile and runtime infrastructure for FESOM2, and currently also applied for ECHAM and ICON standalone simulations. -
Documentation and Software User’S Manual, Version 4.1
The Canadian Seasonal to Interannual Prediction System version 2 (CanSIPSv2) Canadian Meteorological Centre Technical Note H. Lin1, W. J. Merryfield2, R. Muncaster1, G. Smith1, M. Markovic3, A. Erfani3, S. Kharin2, W.-S. Lee2, M. Charron1 1-Meteorological Research Division 2-Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis (CCCma) 3-Canadian Meteorological Centre (CMC) 7 May 2019 i Revisions Version Date Authors Remarks 1.0 2019/04/22 Hai Lin First draft 1.1 2019/04/26 Hai Lin Corrected the bias figures. Comments from Ryan Muncaster, Bill Merryfield 1.2 2019/05/01 Hai Lin Figures of CanSIPSv2 uses CanCM4i plus GEM-NEMO 1.3 2019/05/03 Bill Merrifield Added CanCM4i information, sea ice Hai Lin verification, 6.6 and 9 1.4 2019/05/06 Hai Lin All figures of CanSIPSv2 with CanCM4i and GEM-NEMO, made available by Slava Kharin ii © Environment and Climate Change Canada, 2019 Table of Contents 1 Introduction ............................................................................................................................. 4 2 Modifications to models .......................................................................................................... 6 2.1 CanCM4i .......................................................................................................................... 6 2.2 GEM-NEMO .................................................................................................................... 6 3 Forecast initialization ............................................................................................................. -
Climate Modelling Primer
A Climate Modelling Primer A Climate Modelling Primer, Third Edition. K. McGuffie and A. Henderson-Sellers. © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd ISBN: 0-470-85750-1 (HB); 0-470-85751-X (PB) A Climate Modelling Primer THIRD EDITION Kendal McGuffie University of Technology, Sydney, Australia and Ann Henderson-Sellers ANSTO Environment, Australia Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons Ltd, The Atrium, Southern Gate, Chichester, West Sussex PO19 8SQ, England Telephone (+44) 1243 779777 Email (for orders and customer service enquiries): [email protected] Visit our Home Page on www.wileyeurope.com or www.wiley.com All Rights Reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, scanning or otherwise, except under the terms of the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988 or under the terms of a licence issued by the Copyright Licensing Agency Ltd, 90 Tottenham Court Road, London W1T 4LP, UK, without the permission in writing of the Publisher. Requests to the Publisher should be addressed to the Permissions Department, John Wiley & Sons Ltd, The Atrium, Southern Gate, Chichester, West Sussex PO19 8SQ, England, or emailed to [email protected], or faxed to (+44) 1243 770620. Designations used by companies to distinguish their products are often claimed as trademarks. All brand names and product names used in this book are trade names, service marks, trademarks or registered trademarks of their respective owners. The Publisher is not associated with any product or vendor mentioned in this book. This publication is designed to provide accurate and authoritative information in regard to the subject matter covered. -
Validation of Climate Models
Validation of Climate Models Simon Tett 19/6/06 with thanks to: Keith Williams, Mark Webb, Mark Rodwell, Roy Kershaw, Sean Milton, Gill Martin, Tim Johns, Jonathan Gregory, Peter Thorne, Philip Brohan & © Crown copyright John Caesar Page 1 Approaches Parameterisation & Forecast error Climatology's Climate Variability Climate Change. © Crown copyright Page 2 Methodology for improving parametrizations CRMs Observations Forcing Evaluation Evaluation g Fo Analysis Development in rc rc on in Fo ati g alu Ev NWP Forecast SCMs Development Forcing Evaluation (consistent errors?) © Crown copyright Page 3 Tropical Systematic Biases in NWP Moisture balance from Thermodynamic (RH) Profile Errors Idealised Aquaplanet – suggest Vs ARM Manus Sondes JAS 2003– convection largest contributor to Errors in convection? humidity biases Convection too shallow? 20 hPa Unrealistic 77 Moistening and drying 192 in forecasts 367 576 777 Moister at cloud base & Freezing level 922 © Crown copyright Page 4 S.Milton & M.Willett NWP Tropical T, RH, and Wind Errors vs Sondes Summer 2005 – Impact of new Physics A package of physics improvements introduced in March 2006 Improved Thermodynamic Profiles • Adaptive detrainment (conv) –> improve detrainment of moisture. • Changes to marine BL –> reduce LH fluxes Old • Non-gradient momentum stress. -> Improve low level winds Model New Physics ΔRH Day 5 Circulation Errors In Equatorial Winds Reduced ΔT Day 5 S. Derbyshire, A. Maidens, A. Brown, J.Edwards, M.Willett & S.Milton © Crown copyright Page 5 Spinup Tendencies Used to assess the contribution of individual physical parametrisations and dynamics to systematic errors. Run a ~60-member ensemble of 1 to 5 day integrations started from operational NWP analyses scattered evenly over a period e.g. -
Atmospheric Dispersion of Radioactive Material in Radiological Risk Assessment and Emergency Response
Progress in NUCLEAR SCIENCE and TECHNOLOGY, Vol. 1, p.7-13 (2011) REVIEW Atmospheric Dispersion of Radioactive Material in Radiological Risk Assessment and Emergency Response YAO Rentai * China Institute for Radiation Protection, P.O.Box 120, Taiyuan, Shanxi 030006, China The purpose of a consequence assessment system is to assess the consequences of specific hazards on people and the environment. In this paper, the studies on technique and method of atmospheric dispersion modeling of radioactive material in radiological risk assessment and emergency response are reviewed in brief. Some current statuses of nuclear accident consequences assessment in China were introduced. In the future, extending the dispersion modeling scales such as urban building scale, establishing high quality experiment dataset and method of model evaluation, improved methods of real-time modeling using limited inputs, and so on, should be promoted with high priority of doing much more work. KEY WORDS: atmospheric model, risk assessment, emergency response, nuclear accident 11) I. Introduction from U.S. NOAA, and SPEEDI/WSPEEDI from The studies and developments of techniques and methods Japan/JAERI. However, the needs of emergency of atmospheric dispersion modeling of radioactive material management may not be well satisfied by existing models in radiological risk assessment and emergency response which are not well designed and confronted with difficulty have evolved over the past 50-60 years. The three marked in detailed constructions of local wind and turbulence -
Lecture 29. Introduction to Atmospheric Chemical Transport Models
Lecture 29. Introduction to atmospheric chemical transport models. Part 1. Objectives: 1. Model types. 2. Box models. 3. One-dimensional models. 4. Two-dimensional models. 5. Three-dimensional models. Readings: Graedel T. and P.Crutzen. “Atmospheric change: an earth system perspective”. Chapter 15.”Bulding environmental chemical models”, 1992. 1. Model types. Mathematical models provide the necessary framework for integration of our understanding of individual atmospheric processes and study of their interactions. Note, that atmosphere is a complex reactive system in which numerous physical and chemical processes occur simultaneously. • Atmospheric chemical transport models are defined according to their spatial scale: Model Typical domain scale Typical resolution Microscale 200x200x100 m 5 m Mesoscale(urban) 100x100x5 km 2 km Regional 1000x1000x10 km 20 km Synoptic(continental) 3000x3000x20 km 80 km Global 65000x65000x20km 50x50 1 Figure 29.1 Components of a chemical transport model (Seinfeld and Pandis, 1998). 2 • Domain of the atmospheric model is the area that is simulated. The computation domain consists of an array of computational cells, each having uniform chemical composition. The size of cells determines the spatial resolution of the model. • Atmospheric chemical transport models are also characterized by their dimensionality: zero-dimensional (box) model; one-dimensional (column) model; two-dimensional model; and three-dimensional model. • Model time scale depends on a specific application varying from hours (e.g., air quality model) to hundreds of years (e.g., climate models) 3 Two principal approaches to simulate changes in the chemical composition of a given air parcel: 1) Lagrangian approach: air parcel moves with the local wind so that there is no mass exchange that is allowed to enter the air parcel and its surroundings (except of species emissions). -
The Prophet of Climate Change James Lovelock Rolling Stone
The Prophet of Climate Change: James Lovelock : Rolling Stone 4/14/10 6:53 AM Advertisement PRINTER FRIENDLY URL: http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/story/16956300/the_prophet_of_climate_change_james_lovelock Rollingstone.com Back to The Prophet of Climate Change: James Lovelock The Prophet of Climate Change: James Lovelock One of the most eminent scientists of our time says that global warming is irreversible — and that more than 6 billion people will perish by the end of the century JEFF GOODELL Posted Nov 01, 2007 2:20 PM ADVERTISEMENT At the age of eighty-eight, after four children and a long and respected career as one of the twentieth century's most influential scientists, James Lovelock has come to an unsettling conclusion: The human race is doomed. "I wish I could be more hopeful," he tells me one sunny morning as we walk through a park in Oslo, where he is giving a talk at a university. Lovelock is a small man, unfailingly polite, with white hair and round, owlish glasses. His step is jaunty, his mind lively, his manner anything but gloomy. In fact, the coming of the Four Horsemen -- war, famine, pestilence and death -- seems to perk him up. "It will be a dark time," Lovelock admits. "But for those who survive, I suspect it will be rather exciting." In Lovelock's view, the scale of the catastrophe that awaits us will soon become obvious. By 2020, droughts and other extreme weather will be commonplace. By 2040, the Sahara will be moving into Europe, and Berlin will be as hot as Baghdad. -
A Brief Summary of Plans for the GMAO Core Priorities and Initiatives for the Next 5 Years
A Brief Summary of Plans for the GMAO Core Priorities and Initiatives for the Next 5 years Provided as information for ROSES 2012 A.13 – MAP Developments in the GMAO are focused on the next generation systems, GEOS-6, and an Integrated Earth System Analysis and the associated modeling system that supports that analysis. GEOS-6 and IESA (1) The GEOS-6 system will be built around the next generation, non-hydrostatic atmospheric model with aerosol-cloud microphysics (advances upon the Morrison-Gettelman cloud microphysics and the Modal Aerosol Model (MAM) aerosol microphysics module for the inclusion of aerosol indirect effects) and an accompanying hybrid (ensemble-variational) 4DVar atmospheric assimilation system. (2) IESA capabilities for other parts of the earth system, including atmospheric chemical constituents and aerosols, ocean circulation, land hydrology, and carbon budget will be built upon our existing separate assimilation capabilities. The GEOS Model Our modeling strategy is driven by the need to have a comprehensive global model valid for both weather and climate and for use in both simulation and assimilation. Our main task in atmospheric modeling during the next five years will be to make the transition to GEOS-6. This direction is driven by (i) the need to improve the representation of clouds and precipitation to enable use of cloud- and precipitation-contaminated satellite radiance observations in NWP, and (ii) the research goal of understanding and predicting weather- climate connections. Development will focus on 1km to 10km resolutions that will be needed for the data assimilation system (DAS). Climate resolutions (10-100km) will not be ignored, but developments for resolutions coarser than 50 km will have lower priority. -
Assimila Blank
NERC NERC Strategy for Earth System Modelling: Technical Support Audit Report Version 1.1 December 2009 Contact Details Dr Zofia Stott Assimila Ltd 1 Earley Gate The University of Reading Reading, RG6 6AT Tel: +44 (0)118 966 0554 Mobile: +44 (0)7932 565822 email: [email protected] NERC STRATEGY FOR ESM – AUDIT REPORT VERSION1.1, DECEMBER 2009 Contents 1. BACKGROUND ....................................................................................................................... 4 1.1 Introduction .............................................................................................................. 4 1.2 Context .................................................................................................................... 4 1.3 Scope of the ESM audit ............................................................................................ 4 1.4 Methodology ............................................................................................................ 5 2. Scene setting ........................................................................................................................... 7 2.1 NERC Strategy......................................................................................................... 7 2.2 Definition of Earth system modelling ........................................................................ 8 2.3 Broad categories of activities supported by NERC ................................................. 10 2.4 Structure of the report ........................................................................................... -
DJ Karoly Et
Supporting Online Material “Detection of a human influence on North American climate”, D. J. Karoly et al. (2003) Materials and Methods Description of the climate models GFDL R30 is a spectral atmospheric model with rhomboidal truncation at wavenumber 30 equivalent to 3.75° longitude × 2.2° latitude (96 × 80) with 14 levels in the vertical. The atmospheric model is coupled to an 18 level gridpoint (192 × 80) ocean model where two ocean grid boxes underlie each atmospheric grid box exactly. Both models are described by Delworth et al. (S1) and Dixon et al. (S2). HadCM2 and HadCM3 use the same atmospheric horizontal resolution, 3.75°× 2.5° (96 × 72) finite difference model (T42/R30 equivalent) with 19 levels in the atmosphere and 20 levels in the ocean (S3, S4). For HadCM2, the ocean horizontal grid lies exactly under that of the atmospheric model. The ocean component of HadCM3 uses much higher resolution (1.25° × 1.25°) with six ocean grid boxes for every atmospheric grid box. In the context of results shown here, the main difference between the two models is that HadCM3 includes improved representations of physical processes in the atmosphere and the ocean (S5). For example, HadCM3 employs a radiation scheme that explicitly represents the radiative effects of minor greenhouse gases as well as CO2, water vapor and ozone (S6), as well as a simple parametrization of background aerosol (S7). ECHAM4/OPYC3 is an atmospheric T42 spectral model equivalent to 2.8° longitude × 2.8° latitude (128 × 64) with 19 vertical layers. The ocean model OPYC3 uses isopycnals as the vertical coordinate system.