THE IRAN-IRAQ WAR Also by Efraim Karsh THE CAUTIOUS BEAR: Soviet Military Engagement in the Middle-Eastern Wars in the Post-1967 Era THE IRAN-IRAQ WAR: A Military Analysis NEUTRALITY AND SMALL STATES THE SOVIET UNION AND SYRIA The Iran-Iraq War Impact and Implications Edited by Efraim Karsh Senior Fellow at the Jaffee Center for Strategic Studies and Lecturer in International Relations, Tel-Aviv University Palgrave Macmillan ISBN 978-0-333-48686-3 ISBN 978-1-349-20050-4 (eBook) DOI 10.1007/978-1-349-20050-4 © The Jaffee Center for Strategic Studies, Tel-Aviv University, 1989 Softcover reprint of the hardcover 1st edition 1989 978-0-333-48685-6 All rights reserved. For information, write: Scholarly and Reference Division, St. Martin's Press, Inc., 175 Fifth Avenue, New York, N.Y. 10010 First published in the United States of America in 1989 ISBN 978-0-312-03629-4 Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data The Iran-Iraq war: impact and implications! edited by Efraim Karsh. p. cm. Rev. and updated papers originally delevered at an international conference, September, 1988, Tel-Aviv University. Includes bibliographical references. ISBN 978-0-312-03629-4 1. Iran-Iraq War, 1980-1988-Influence-Congresses. 2. Persian Gulf Region-Politics and Government-Congresses. I. Karsh, Efraim. II. Merkaz le-mehkarim estrategiyim 'al shem Yafeh. DS318.85.169 1989 955.05'4--dc20 89-36375 CIP In memory of Efraim Marszalkowicz The Jaffee Center for Strategic Studies (JCSS) The Center for Strategic Studies was established at Tel-Aviv University at the end of 1977. In 1983 it was named the Jaffee Center for Strategic Studies in honour of Mr and Mrs Mel Jaffee. The objective of the Center is to contribute to the expansion of knowledge on strategic subjects and to promote public understanding of and pluralistic thought on matters of national and international security. The Center relates to the concept of strategy in its broadest meaning, namely, the complex of processes involved in the identification, mobilization, and application of resources in peace and war, in order to solidify and strengthen natiorial and international security. Jess Publications JCSS publications present the findings and assessments of the Center's research staff. Each paper represents the work of a single investigator or a team. Such teams may include research fellows who are not members of the Center's staff. Views expressed in the Center's publications are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Center, its trustees, officers, or other .staff members or the organizations and individuals that support its research. Thus the publication of a work by JCSS signifies that it is deemed worthy of public consideration but does not imply endorsement of conclusions or recommendations. Editor Executive Editor AHARON Y ARIV JOSEPH ALPHER vi Contents List of Figures and Tables ix Notes on the Contributors x Preface xiii Introduction Efraim Karsh PART I THE WAR AND THE BELLIGERENTS I Iran and the War: From Stalemate to Ceasefire Shahram Chubin 13 2 From Ideological Zeal to Geopolitical Realism: The Islamic Republic and the Gulf Efraim Karsh 26 3 Iran: Doctrine and Reality David Menashri 42 4 The Consequences of the Iran-Iraq War for Iraqi Politics Charles Tripp 58 5 Iraq: Between East and West Amazia Baram 78 PART II REGIONAL IMPLICATIONS 6 The Impact on the Arab World ltamar Rabinovich 101 7 The War and the Spread of Islamic Fundamentalism Robin Wright 110 8 The Gulf States and the Iran-Iraq War Barry Rubin 121 9 The Silent Victor: Turkey's Role in the Gulf War Henri J. Barkey 133 10 Israel and the Iran-Iraq War Joseph Alpher 154 PART III THE WAR AND THE WORLD 11 Walking Tightropes in the Gulf Thomas L. McNaugher 171 vii viii Contents 12 The Soviet Union and the Iran-Iraq War Robert S. Litwak 200 13 Europe and the Iran-Iraq War John Chipman 215 PART IV THE ECONOMICS OF WAR 14 Economic Implications for the Region ~d World Oil Market Eliyahu Kanovsky 231 PART V STRATEGIC AND MILITARY IMPLICATIONS IS A Military-Strategic Overview Chaim Herzog 255 16 The Arms Race after the Iran-Iraq War Geoffrey Kemp 269 17 Escalation in the Iran-Iraq War Philip A. G. Sabin 280 Select Bibliography 296 Index 299 List of Figures and Tables Figures 9.1 Destination of Turkish exports 135 9.2 Export shares 137 9.3 Imports 138 9.4 Turkish trade with Iran and Iraq 146 9.5 Imports as a percentage share of the total 147 Tables 9.1 Turkish exports 1978-87 136 9.2 Turkish imports 1978-87 136 14.1 Iraq - selected economic indicators 234 14.2 Iran - selected economic indicators 244 ix Notes on the Contributors Joseph Alpher is Deputy Head of the Jaffee Center for Strategic Studies, Tel­ Aviv University. He is a former department head in the Israeli Prime Minister's Office. He recently served as co-ordinator and co-editor of the JCSS Study Group Report The West Bank and Gaza: Israel's Options for Peace (1989). Amma Baram is a Lecturer on Modem Middle Eastern History at the University of Haifa and the author of numerous articles on Iraqi politics. In 1988-9 he was a Visiting Scholar at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars (Washington, DC). Henri J. Barkey is Assistant Professor in International Relations at Lehigh University, specializing in Turkish affairs. He is currently completing a book on the industrialization of Turkey. John Chipman is Assistant Director for Regional Security Studies at the IISS, where he directs the Institute's research and conference programme on the Middle East, Africa, Asia, and Latin America. He is the editor of NATO's Southern Allies: Internal and External Challenges (1988), and the author of French Power and Africa: History of an Idea and its Post Colonial Practice (1989), among other works. Shabram Chubin an Iranian national is currently at the Graduate Institute of International Studies, Geneva. Formerly on the staff of the International Institute of Strategic Studies (London), his most recent publication (with Charles Tripp) is Iran and Iraq at War (1988). His other books include The Persian Gulf: The Role of the Outside Powers (1981) and Iran's Foreign Relations (1974). Chaim Herzog is President of the State of Israel, and a leading commentator on military and strategic affairs. His long and distinguished career includes postings as Director of Military Intelligence, Member of the Foreign Affairs and Defence Committee of the Knesset, and Israel's Permanent Representa­ tive to the United Nations. His many publications include The War of Atonement (1975); The Arab-Israeli Wars (1982); and Battles of the Bible (1982), of which he is co-author. Eliyahu Kanovsky, Professor of Economics, is Dean of the Faculty of Social Sciences at Bar-Ilan University. His recent publications include: 'Soviet­ American Competition in the Middle East: The US - The Economic x Notes on Contributors xi Dimension', in Spiegel, Heller and Goldberg (eds), The Soviet-American Competition in the Middle East (1988); 'Another Oil Shock in the 1990s? A Dissenting View', Washington Institute for Near East Policy, 1987; 'Saudi Arabia's Dismal Future: Regional and Global Implications', Middle East Contemporary Survey 1987; 'What's Behind Syria's Current Economic Problems?' Middle East Contemporary Survey, 1986. Efraim Karsh, the volume editor, is a Senior Fellow at the Jaffee Center for Strategic Studies and a Lecturer on International Relations, Tel- Aviv University. He has held teaching and/or research posts at Columbia Univer­ sity, the International Institute for Strategic Studies (London), and the Kennan Institute for Advanced Russian Studies (Washington DC). His most recent publications include The Iran-Iraq War: A Military Analysis (1987) and The Soviet Union and Syria (1988). Geoffrey Kemp is a Senior Associate at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. He served in the White House on the National Security Council staff from 1981--4 and was Senior Director for Near East & South Asian Affairs. Robert S. Litwak directs the International Security Studies Program at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars in Washington. He has held research fellowships at Harvard University and at the International Institute for Strategic Studies in London. He is the author of Detente and the Nixon Doctrine and Security in the Persian Gulf: Sources of Interstate Conflict, amongst other publications. Dr Litwak was a visiting scholar at the Institute of Oriental Studies (USSR Academy of Sciences) in Moscow in spring 1986 and is currently completing a book on Soviet policies in the Third World under Gorbachev. Thomas L. McNaugber is a Senior Fellow in Foreign Policy Studies at the Brookings Institution. Formerly a policy analyst at the Rand Corporation, he is the author, inter alia, of Arms and Oil: U.S. Military Strategy and the Persian Gulf. Dand Menasbri is a Senior Research Fellow at the Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies, Tel Aviv-University. He has held teaching and/ or research posts at Princeton and Cornell universities, and is the author of Iran: The Revolution and Beyond (1989), among other works. Itamar Rabinonch, Professor of Middle Eastern History, is Dean of the Faculty of Humanities as Head ofthe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies, Tel-Aviv University. His many publications include Syria under the Ba'th (1972) and The War for Lebanon (1985). xii Notes on Contributors Barry Rubin is a Fellow at the Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International studies. He is author of Paved with Good Intentions: The American Experience and Iran, and Modern Dictators: Third World Coup­ makers, Strongmen, and Populist Tyrants, among other books.