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Home , 2013 Kentucky Derby, Itsmyluckyday

The Stan Caris Checklist and Selections 2013 Handicapping the Kentucky Derby

By Stanley Caris

in Contenders: The fol- 4 of his races. Frac Daddy raced well in the lowing 7 Horses are Overanalyze is tied with Revo- while finishing Wmy win contenders: My lutionary for fourth choice on my second to Overanalyze and has checklist leader is Normandy In- checklist. He finished strongly in Buckpasser in the X passing posi- vasion with 13 points. Normandy the Arkansas Derby while running tion. Another runner that may hit Invasion closed strongly in the Wood the last 1/8 of a mile in 12 3/5 sec- the board at long odds. Memorial with a final 3/8 in 36 flat onds. and a final 1/8 in 12 1/5. He carries Vyjack ran the last 3 furlongs of Longshot Recommendations: the strong conduit mare, Chit Chat in the Wood Memorial in 36 flat and Revolutionary, Normandy In- tail-female and is a member of fam- the final 1/8 in 12 3/5 seconds. He vasion, Mylute and Overanalyze ily #1, one of the strongest families is a member of family #1, one of the for generating Derby winners. best families for generating Derby Exotic Wagers: is second choice on my check- winners. An exacta wheel of Orb on top of list with 9 points and qualified on my Mylute ran the last 3 furlongs of the entire field and an exacta wheel final fraction indicator. He carries the in 37 3/5 sec- with Revolutionary on top of the Buckpasser in the X passing posi- onds. Although this author does not entire field. tion which is a strong indicator in all consider the La. Derby to be a big An exacta wheel of the entire field three legs of the Triple Crown. In 5 prep race that final time is com- over Orb and an exacta wheel of the addition Orb has the strong conduit mendable. If the La. Derby was entire field over Revolutionary. mare, Cherokee Rose in tail-female. considered a big 5 prep race Mylute An exacta box of the following 5 Revolutionary- is fourth choice would have accumulated a much horses: Revolutionary, Orb, Nor- on my checklist with 4 points and larger point total on my checklist. mandy Invasion, Mylute, and carries the great conduit mare, Doxa Mylute is a member of the powerful . in tail-female. In addition, Revolu- Raise A Native sire line, a sire line A trifecta key with Orb on top tionary has Buckpasser in the X that has generated 18 Derby win- of the following 9 horses: Revo- passing position by way of AP Indy, ners. lutionary, Normandy Invasion, a definite source of stamina in the Verrazano, Overanalyze, Vy- modern thoroughbred. Revolution- Runners That Might Hit The jack, Mylute, , ary finished fast in the Louisiana Board At Very Long Odds: Charming Kitten and Frac Daddy Derby while running the final 3/8 in Palace Malice is a member of A trifecta key with Revolution- 37 4/5 and the final 1/8 in 12 3/5. the powerful Raise A Native sire ary on top of the following 9 horses: Although this author does not con- line and finished second in the Blue Orb, Normandy Invasion, Ver- sider that race to be a big 5 prep it is Grass over a polytrack surface. razano, Overanalyze, Vyjack, still commendable. If the La Derby Charming Kitten- was clos- Mylute, Palace Malice, Charm- was a big 5 prep race Revolutionary ing fast in the Blue Grass stakes at ing Kitten, and Frac Daddy. would have achieved a much larger Keenland which was contested over point total. a polytrack surface. Although he Sloppy or Muddy Track: Verrazano is third choice on has never raced over a dirt surface If the track comes up sloppy or my checklist and has qualified on he looks like the type of runner muddy give extra consideration my final fraction indicator. This that will relish the Derby distance. to Mylute, Vyjack, and colt has fine speed and has won all Could hit the board at long odds. Palace Malice. 8 Factor Checklist for the members of family 1 or 23b. Horse 37.8 RF 98 23b SR 92 BK CM Total Conduit Mare Derby Indicator #5 (SR) Normandy Invasion 2 0 0 2 3 2 0 4 13 Chit Chat Give 3 points to all horses who 1) Orb 2 0 0 0 0 0 3 4 9 Cherokee Rose were first or second in a big 5 prep Verrazano 2 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 5 race provided that they also achieve Revolutionary 0 0 0 2 0 2 0 0 4 Doxa a Daily Racing Form speed rating Vyjack 2 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 4 plus track variant of 103 or higher in that big 5 prep. 2) The runner Overanalyze 2 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 4 must show no loss of ground from Mylute 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 2 Broom Flower the 6 furlong call to the finish of a 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 2 big 5 prep race unless it shows no 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 2 loss of ground in another big 5 prep. Golden Soul 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 2 Marchetta 3) Races over polytracks were not Lines of Battle 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Artless considered party of this study. Palace Malice 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Derby Indicator #6 (92) Black Onyx 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Give 2 points to all horses who won a race at a mile or more at age 2 and Charming Kitten 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 also achieved a Beyer figure of 92 Java's War 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 or higher at age 2. Frac Daddy 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Falling Sky 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Derby Indicator #7 (BK) Giant Finish 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Give 3 points to all runners who Oxbow 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 carry Buckpasser in the X passing AE Fear the Kitten 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 position and also qualify on all the rules of Derby Indicator #1.

Codes for the 8 Indicators Arkansas Derby and the Wood Me- Derby Indicator #8 (CM) in My Newly Revised morial). Note the Blue Grass does Give 4 points to all runners who car- Derby Checklist not count any more because it is a ry one of our special conduit mares polytrack surface. However, prior in tail- female and also qualify on Derby Indicator #1 (37.8) to 2007 the Blue Grass was run over all the rules of Derby Indicator #1. Give 2 points to all horses that fit the a dirt surface and was used as a big following rules: 1) It must achieve a 5 prep race. So actually there are final 3/8 of a mile in 37 4/5 or less only 4 big preps that are presently or a final 1/8 of a mile in 12 4/5 or used in my checklist. less in a big 5 prep race 2) It must not have finished worse than 4th in Derby Indicator #2 (RF) its last start before the Derby 3) the Give 4 points to all horses that carry runner must not have been worse the Raise A Native sire line and fit than 4th in the race that qualifies it all the rules found in indicator #1. on final fraction times above 4)The Note: runner must not have lost 2 lengths Derby Indicator #3 (98) On the far right of the checklist I or more from the 6 furlong call to Give 2 points to all horses that listed the names of strong conduit the finish of a big 5 prep race unless achieve a 98 Beyer figure at 9 fur- mares in bold face. Note that some it shows no loss of ground in an- longs at age 3 and also fit all the of the entries carry a strong conduit other big 5 prep race 5)Races over rules of Indicator #1. mare in tail-female but do not fit all polytracks were omitted from this the rules found in Derby Indicator study (The Big 5 Preps are the Santa Derby Indicator #4 (23b) #1. Therefore these runners do not Anita Derby, the , the Give 2 points to all horses that are qualify on Derby Indicator #8.