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Twice the Size?:Imagineering the Future of Irish Gateways Technological University Dublin ARROW@TU Dublin Reports Futures Academy 2008-03-01 Twice the size?:Imagineering the Future of Irish Gateways Futures Academy, Technological University Dublin Technological University Dublin Follow this and additional works at: https://arrow.tudublin.ie/futuresacrep Recommended Citation Futures Academy, (2008) Technological University Dublin: Twice the size?:Imagineering the Future of Irish Gateways. Technological University Dublin , The Futures Academy, 2008. This Report is brought to you for free and open access by the Futures Academy at ARROW@TU Dublin. It has been accepted for inclusion in Reports by an authorized administrator of ARROW@TU Dublin. For more information, please contact [email protected], [email protected]. This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-Noncommercial-Share Alike 4.0 License TWICE THE SIZE? IMAGINEERING THE FUTURE OF IRISH GATEWAYS A REPORT FOR THE URBAN FORUM March 2008 School of Spatial Planning 2 TWICE THE SIZE? IMAGINEERING THE FUTURE OF IRISH GATEWAYS A REPORT FOR THE URBAN FORUM March 2008 The Futures Academy The School of Spatial Planning The Faculty of Built Environment Dublin Institute of Technology 3 The Urban Forum is an initiative of the Royal Institute of the Architects of Ireland, Engineers Ireland, the Irish Planning Institute, the Irish Landscape Institute and the Society of Chartered Surveyors. The aims of the Forum are: to promote the discipline of urban design in the public and private sectors; to develop education courses for members of the above bodies to improve the levels of Urban Design knowledge and skills within the professions; and to promote the benefits of good urban design to the public. The Futures Academy is an active research organisation, which was founded in response to the need for a fresh, more effective approach towards forward planning. It was established in January 2003 and it is located in the Faculty of the Built Environment in the Dublin Institute of Technology (DIT), Ireland. Through the futures thinking, the Academy aims to promote new ways of exploring and approaching the future. Using various futures methodologies and techniques we examine the future of society, economy and the environment. In order to encourage creative and innovative thinking we introduce futures methodologies to industry and government and assist public and private parties in applying futures methods. School of Spatial Planning The School of Spatial Planning at DIT is the largest planning school in Ireland and educates professionals in the areas of land use planning, environmental management and geomatics. The appropriate use of limited space and resources is one of the most pressing concerns in modern times. Pivotal issues include the location of public facilities, efficiency of movement, how to use limited resources with best regard to future generations, and concerns about the spatial consequences of climate change. Graduates of the School of Spatial Planning at DIT have gone on to play leadership roles equipped with the strategic foresight and practical skills that are essential for these roles. 4 THE PROJECT TEAM The project has been carried out by The Futures Academy, Dublin Institute of Technology in collaboration with the School of Spatial Planning, Faculty of Built Environment, Dublin Institute of Technology. Project Leader: Professor John Ratcliffe, Director, Faculty of the Built Environment Project Manager: Dr Ela Krawczyk, Head of The Futures Academy Project Consultants: Henk van der Kamp, Head of the School of Spatial Planning Conor Skehan, Head of the Department of Environment and Planning, Fellow, The Futures Academy Brian Hughes, Lecturer, Department of Real Estate, Fellow, The Futures Academy Project Team: Julie Gannon, The Futures Academy Dr Lorcan Sirr, Head of Research, Faculty of Built Environment, Fellow, The Futures Academy Ruth Saurin, The Futures Academy Gillian O’Brien, The Futures Academy Patrick Shiels, Urban Research Analyst Dorothy Stewart, The Futures Academy Paraic Fallon, Lecturer, School of Spatial Planning Paul Lawlor, Lecturer, School of Spatial Planning 5 F O R E W O R D, by Professor John S. Ratcliffe and D. Conor Skehan Whilst this study is primarily about the necessary hopes and visions of the various gateway towns and cities identified in the National Spatial Strategy, it was inevitable that, in a world where increasingly everything affects everything else, their future wellbeing would be shaped by the driving forces of change sweeping around the world and an economy inexorably dominated by Dublin, and heavily influenced by emerging synergies with Belfast and the rest of Northern Ireland. Unashamedly, it adopts a ‘futures studies’ approach, believing that time and effort spent on strategic thinking prior to strategic planning ultimately pays enormous dividends in terms of discovering, exploring and evaluating possible, probable and preferable futures. Furthermore, in an era of accelerating change, growing complexity and heightened uncertainty, it enables all the key players and stakeholders in policy formulation and decision-making processes to think, talk, plan and act, creatively and differently, together. It imagines ahead and plans backward. Spatial planning and futures studies are both chiefly concerned with the needs and expectations of tomorrow. Each activity deals with ambiguous, multifaceted and contentious issues, for which the outcomes are complex and uncertain. Their common purpose is to provide a ‘better future’, while avoiding undesirable risks. Spatial planning and futures studies both share ethical dilemmas of representation and manipulation from the way they operate, and the methodological difficulties of balancing a wide range of information, techniques, participants and attitudes. Despite these similarities, the way of thinking about and addressing the future by the spatial planning profession differs greatly from the one practiced by futurists. This is discussed elsewhere, (Ratcliffe & Krawczyk, 2007), but in the context of this study, a ‘futures’ approach constitutes a much more effective platform for collaborative planning, helping to develop agreed solutions and ensuring that the ownership of those solutions is embedded in the community so that they have a greater chance of successful implementation. What has emerged from the Twice the Size study is that the central tenet of present planning in the Republic of Ireland – the attainment of balanced regional development – is mistaken. Further, that unless this error is recognised and redressed, then Ireland’s future economic, environmental and social prospects are likely to be seriously impaired. In examining the main aim of the National Spatial Strategy, to increase the size of the Gateway settlements to twice the current population, the principal drivers of change emerging as having the greatest significance to such an outcome were as follows. 1. Demographics. The very strong concentration of population towards the East is likely to continue as the relative size of the rest of the State continues to fall. This Eastern region will most notably remain the primary engine of the Irish economy because of intrinsic competitive advantages conferred by scale and a critical mass of urban population. 2. Spatial Continuity. The low density spatial pattern of development, following coasts, river valleys, favourable topography and transportation corridors are unlikely to change 6 – although there will continue to be an increased local urbanisation of the population on all areas. 3. Changing Agriculture. The completion of the reform of the Common Agriculture Policy by 2015 will create widening differences between an area of intensive agribusiness in the south and the East compared to very large areas in the West and north where agriculture will cease to be a dominant and full-time activity, and where environmental designations are likely to become the dominant determinant for development. 4. Changing Values. The recent rapid economic and social development of the country combined with the urbanisation of lifestyles and populations, as well as the continuing high proportion of younger people will mean that values in Ireland will continue to change rapidly and dramatically compared to other European countries. 5. Changing Politics. The changing demographics, values and urbanization are likely to mean that an urban agenda will come to dominate politics and policies within ten years or less. The basic conclusion emerging from these drivers is that by the year 2030 over two-thirds of the population of the island of Ireland will be concentrated within 25 km of the East coast. There is no evidence that existing strategies will prevent this, nor indeed is there any evidence that this would be desirable. An Eastern corridor from Belfast to Waterford, is likely to be Ireland’s best opportunity to maintain a competitive position among the city-regions of an increasingly competitive Europe. More disturbingly, there is no evidence of any plans to provide for this future. On the contrary the existing National Spatial Strategy is fundamentally conceived to achieve ‘balanced regional development’. This strategy, dubbed at one workshop as the ABD Strategy [Anywhere But Dublin] is likely to be counterproductive to all parts of Ireland because it will divert resources away from the region that will probably sustain the economic growth necessary to transfer funds to less advantaged areas. This strategy is viewed as a relict of a political
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