Ukraine-Russia Scenario Document
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Informational Conflict: Ukraine-Russia Relations 2014-2015 Scenario Document in support of the DARPA AIDA Program Version 1.2.1 February 15, 2019 This technical data deliverable was developed using contract funds under Basic Contract No. W15P7T-13-C-A802. The view, opinions, and/or findings contained in this report are those of The MITRE Corporation and should not be construed as an official Government position, policy, or decision, unless designated by other documentation. Approved for Public Release; Distribution Unlimited. Case Number 18-0014 © 2019 The MITRE Corporation Contents Change Log .................................................................................................................................................... 6 About this Document .................................................................................................................................... 6 Purpose of this Document ........................................................................................................................ 6 Organization of this Document ................................................................................................................. 7 A Note about Data Sources ....................................................................................................................... 7 The Russia-Ukraine Conflict in Perspective................................................................................................... 7 Background on the Ukraine Conflict ......................................................................................................... 8 Conflict in the Information Environment .................................................................................................. 9 Divergent Narratives ............................................................................................................................... 10 Conclusion ............................................................................................................................................... 12 Topics Explored in this Scenario Document ................................................................................................ 13 Sentiment, Emotion, and Cognitive State (SEC) .......................................................................................... 13 Committed Belief .................................................................................................................................... 13 Sentiment ................................................................................................................................................ 14 Data Sources Related to Ukraine and Russia .............................................................................................. 15 Timelines, Documentaries, and Overviews ............................................................................................. 15 Hashtags .................................................................................................................................................. 18 Twitter Accounts ..................................................................................................................................... 19 Government ........................................................................................................................................ 19 Journalists ........................................................................................................................................... 20 Other ................................................................................................................................................... 20 Government, Media, and Activist Groups .............................................................................................. 20 Western / European ............................................................................................................................ 20 Ukrainian ............................................................................................................................................. 21 Separatist / Pro-Russian ...................................................................................................................... 24 Russian ................................................................................................................................................ 26 Surveys of Media Outlets ........................................................................................................................ 27 Ukrainian ............................................................................................................................................. 27 Russian Media ..................................................................................................................................... 27 Popular Russian Social Media Sites ..................................................................................................... 27 2 © 2019 The MITRE Corporation Specific Informational Conflict Topics ......................................................................................................... 29 Who Started the Shooting at Maidan? (February 2014) Topic ID R103 ................................................ 29 Background ......................................................................................................................................... 29 Competing Perspectives...................................................................................................................... 29 Data Sources ....................................................................................................................................... 30 Hashtags .......................................................................................................................................... 30 Twitter Accounts ............................................................................................................................. 31 Wikipedia Articles ........................................................................................................................... 31 Articles and Videos .......................................................................................................................... 31 Flight of Deposed President Viktor Yanukovich (February 2014) Topic R102 ........................................ 37 Background ......................................................................................................................................... 37 Competing Perspectives...................................................................................................................... 40 Data Sources ....................................................................................................................................... 41 Hashtags .......................................................................................................................................... 41 Wikipedia Articles ........................................................................................................................... 42 Articles and Videos .......................................................................................................................... 42 Donetsk and Luhansk Referendum, aka Donbas Status Referendum (May 2014) Topic ID R107 .......... 46 Competing Perspectives...................................................................................................................... 46 Data Sources ....................................................................................................................................... 47 Hashtags .......................................................................................................................................... 47 Wikipedia Articles ........................................................................................................................... 48 Articles and Videos .......................................................................................................................... 48 Crash of Malaysian Air Flight MH17 (July 17, 2014) Topic ID R101 ........................................................ 52 Background ......................................................................................................................................... 52 Competing Perspectives...................................................................................................................... 53 Data Sources ....................................................................................................................................... 54 Hashtags .......................................................................................................................................... 54 Twitter Accounts ............................................................................................................................. 54 Wikipedia Articles ........................................................................................................................... 54 Information Portals ......................................................................................................................... 54 Articles and Videos .......................................................................................................................... 55 Humanitarian Crisis in Eastern Ukraine (July-August