Paper number 115 ENVIRONMENT DEPARTMENT PAPERS Climate Change Series Environment Department THE WORLD BANK 1818 H Street, NW Washington, D.C. 20433 Telephone: 202-473-3641 Facsimile: 202-477-0565 Climate Resilient Development Transitioning to Transitioning to Climate Resilient Development Perspectives from Communities in Peru Frank Sperling, with Corinne Valdivia, Roberto Quiroz, Roberto Valdivia, Lenkiza Angulo, Anton Seimon, and Ian Noble May 2008 Perspectives from Communities in Peru Perspectives Sustainable Development Vice Presidency Printed on recycled, environmentally-fiendly paper stock, using soy inks. THE WORLD BANK ENVIRONMENT DEPARTMENT Transitioning to Climate Resilient Development Perspectives from Communities in Peru Frank Sperling with Corinne Valdivia Roberto Quiroz Roberto Valdivia Lenkiza Angulo Anton Seimon Ian Noble May 2008 Papers in this series are not formal publications of the World Bank. They are circulated to encourage thought and discussion. The use and citation of this paper should take this into account. The views expressed are those of the authors and should not be attributed to the World Bank. Copies are available from the Environment Department of the World Bank by calling 202-473-3641. © The International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/THE WORLD BANK 1818 H Street, N.W. Washington, D.C. 20433, U.S.A. Manufactured in the United States of America First printing May 2008 The findings, interpretation, and conclusions presented in this report are those of the author and should not be attributed to the World Bank, its affiliated organizations, or to members of its Board of Executive Directors or the countries they represent. The presentation of material in this document and the geographical designations employed do not imply expression of any opinion on the part of the World Bank concerning the legal status of a country, territory or area, or concerning the delimitation of its boundaries. Design: Jim Cantrell Cover photos: Frank Sperling Contents ACKNOWLEDGMENTS vii EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 1 INTRODUCTION — CLIMATE RESILIENT DEVELOPMENT 5 Chapter 1: Climate Resilient Development — A Country Perspective 9 Disaster Risk — An Overview 11 El Niño’s Influence on Peru’s Climate 11 Forecasting El Niño 14 Institutional Structures for Disaster and Climate Risk Management 16 Climate Change — Challenge and Institutional Response 18 Climate Change and El Niño 19 Chapter 2: Climate Resilient Development — Community Perspectives 21 Approach 21 Perspectives from Communities in Piura and Puno 25 Disaster Risks and Impacts 25 Piura 25 Puno 29 Spatial Disaster Risk 31 Temporal Exposure to Climatic Risks 32 Impacts 34 Comparison of Risk Exposure of Communities in Piura and Puno 36 Vulnerability 36 Socioeconomic Vulnerability 37 Environmental Vulnerability 38 Long-term Consequences of Vulnerability 38 Key Aspects of Vulnerability 38 Coping and Adaptation Strategies 39 Coping Strategies 40 Adaptation Practices 41 External Assistance and Barriers 43 External Information—Weather Forecasts, Early Warning, and Seasonal Climate Outlooks 44 Access to and Use of Information in Piura 45 Weather and Climate Information in Puno 47 Reflections on Community Responses 48 Use of Local Knowledge in the Prediction of Climatic and Environmental Changes 50 Climate Change Series iii Transitioning to Climate Resilient Development — Perspectives from Communities in Peru Piura 50 Puno 50 Gauging the Role and Validity of Indicators 56 Perceptions of Changing Climate Conditions 57 Piura: Perceived Climatic Changes in Northwestern Peru 57 Puno: Perceived Climatic Changes in the Peruvian Altiplano 57 Are These Perceptions True? 58 Piura 58 Puno 60 Chapter 3: Conclusions and Recommendations 65 Use of Climate Information 66 Research 66 Environmental Risks and Change 67 Climate Forecasts and Local Indicators 67 Agriculture and Livestock Management and Market Research 67 Incentive Systems 67 Tracking Progress 68 Community Action on Climate Risk Management 68 Awareness Building 68 Community-Level Investments 69 Enabling Frameworks: Institutional Coordination and Support 70 REFERENCES 73 APPENDIXES Appendix A: Spatial Hazard Maps of Puno Communities 77 Appendix B: Warm (El Niño) and Cold (La Niña) Phases of ENSO 83 Appendix C: Precipitation Totals in Relation to Seasonal SST Anomalies in Esperanza 85 Appendix D: Community-Specific Recommendations 89 Parachique 89 Measures that Do Not Require Outside Assistance 89 Measures that Require Outside Assistance 89 Chato Grande 90 Measures the Community Could Take without Outside Assistance 90 Measures that Require Outside Assistance 90 Locuto 91 Measures the Community Could Take without External Assistance (according to July 13 workshop) 91 Measures that Require Outside Assistance (according to July 13 workshop) 92 Measures that Could Be Implemented by the Community without External Assistance (part of the development plan for the left bank of the Piura River, in Tambogrande) 92 Measures that Require External Assistance (part of the development plan for the left bank of the Piura River, in Tambogrande) 93 Cabuyal 94 Measures the Community Could Take without Outside Assistance 94 Measures that Require Outside Assistance 94 iv Environment Department Papers Contents Appendix E: Project Proposal for Follow-Up Activities in the Altiplano 97 Background 97 Development Objective 97 Expected Contribution to Development Outcomes/Results 98 Expected Outputs and Results 98 Key Performance Indicators 98 Appendix F: Managing Climate Risks in Coastal Ecuador — A Brief Comparison of Community Perspectives 101 FIGURES 1. Monthly Precipitation for (A) La Esperanza, and (B) Huancabamba 12 2. Piura, Northern Peru 13 3. Monthly Precipitation Averages for Puno from 1931–73 14 4. The NINO Regions 14 5. NINO 3.4 Forecasts: Lead Time by Month and Predictive Skill 15 6. Diagram of Information Flow through ERFEN Network in Peru 17 7. NINO 3 Region Climate Trends 20 8. Spatial Exposure to Hydrometeorological Hazards of the Community of Santa Maria 31 9. Time Line of Major Natural Hazard Events Recalled by the Communities 32 10. A Comparison of the Seasonal Precipitation Total from January to March (JFM) for La Esparanza with JFM SST Anomalies in the NINO 3.4 Region 48 11. Comparison between January Precipitation in La Esperanza and SST Values of the NINO 1.2 Region 49 12. Average (A) Annual, (B) Monthly Maximum, and (C) Monthly Minimum Temperatures for Esperanza, Northwestern Coastal Peru 59 13. Average Monthly (A) Maximum and (B) Minimum Temperatures for Huancabamba, Sierras, Upper Piura Watershed 61 14. Long-term Temperature Record for (A) Minimum, (B) Maximum, and (C) Average Temperature in Cusco, Peru 62 15. Precipitation Averaged over 30-year Periods for January to April for the Peruvian Altiplano Region 63 MAPS 1. The Country of Peru 10 2. Location of Communities Assessed in Piura 22 3. Location of Communities in Puno 23 TABLES 1. Annual GDP Growth Rates in Percent by Year, Peru 10 Climate Change Series v Transitioning to Climate Resilient Development — Perspectives from Communities in Peru 2. Disasters in Peru (Recorded by District from 2000–04) 11 3. Three-Month Temperature Anomalies for Classification of El Niño (EN) and La Niña (LN) Conditions, in Degrees Celsius 15 4. Members of ENFEN–Peru 17 5. Community Characteristics, Piura 22 6. Community Characteristics, Puno 24 7. Disaster Events, as Recalled and Ranked by Communities in Piura, Peru 26 8. Impacts of Climate Hazards Identified in the Community Assessments in Piura 27 9. Qualitative Ranking of Natural Hazards by Communities in Puno 30 10. Livelihood Impacts of Drought and Floods, Communities of Puno 35 11. Livelihood Impacts of Hail and Frost, Communities of Puno 36 12. Conditions of Vulnerability Highlighted by Communities 39 13. Destinations of Push Migration, Piura Communties 41 14. Access to Weather and Climate Information 46 15. Awareness, Use, and Trust of El Niño Information in Six Puno Communities, 2005 Workshop 47 16. Indicators Used by Communities to Predict Weather Extremes and Climatic Conditions 51 vi Environment Department Papers Acknowledgments his report is an output of the project The report would not have been possible without the Adaptation Strategies to the Environmental participation of the communities of Parachique, Chato and Socioeconomic Impacts of El Niño for Grande, Locuto, and Cabuyal in the Department of Rural Communities in Ecuador and Peru Piura and the communities of Santa Maria, Ancacca, Tsupported by the Trust Fund for Environmental and Yanamocco, Candile, Accopata, and Alto Achuyo Socially Sustainable Development (TFESSD) and led in the Department of Puno. Their willingness and by the Climate Change Team of the World Bank’s openness for sharing their perspectives on vulnerability Environment Department. to climate risk, coping and adaptive capacities, institutional support, and existing barriers are gratefully This report has been authored by Frank Sperling. acknowledged. It draws upon two major consultancy studies in Piura, northwestern Peru and in Puno, the region Furthermore, our gratitude is extended to the of the Peruvian altiplano, which were carried out by institutions working on climate and disaster risk the Intermediate Technology Development Group management issues in Peru, who shared information (ITDG) and Centro de Investigacion de Recursos and provide insights about the challenges Peru is facing Naturales y Medio Ambiente (Research Center for through the climatic changes associated with El Niño Natural Resources