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Dunkin' Brands Group, Inc 25 June 2019 Americas/United States Equity Research Restaurants Dunkin’ Brands Group, Inc. (DNKN) Rating UNDERPERFORM Price (21-Jun-19, US$) 79.54 INITIATION Target price (US$) 70.00 52-week price range (US$) 80.73 - 61.93 Shares Hot on Luke Warm Outlook; Initiate Market cap(US$ m) 6,574 Enterprise value (US$ m) 9,020 Underperform Target price is for 12 months. Research Analysts ■ We initiate coverage of Dunkin’ Brands (DNKN) with an Underperform Lauren Silberman rating and $70 target price. At ~18.5x NTM EV/EBITDA (3-yr avg ~15.5x), 212 325 2720 DNKN trades near peak valuation despite ongoing traffic and SSS challenges [email protected] and lowered development targets. While we believe DNKN’s 100% franchised business model warrants a premium to overall restaurants (~12x), its multiple has moved in-line with heavily franchised peers despite higher peer multiples driven by business model transformations. We see downside risk to shares against lower growth prospects and elevated valuation. ■ Traffic A Show-Me Story: Traffic has been negative for 12 consecutive quarters (-2.7% in 2018) and a reversal in trends seems unlikely NT against competitive headwinds. Mixed brand positioning makes Dunkin’ more susceptible to competition from high- and low-end peers. While initiatives around espresso, value, operations and digital are positives, we’re cautious on a sustainable improvement in SSS given recent trends, competitive backdrop and execution concerns. We model Dunkin’ US SSS of ~1.5% in 2019 and long-term, and relative to DNKN’s target for low-single-digit SSS. ■ Moderating Unit Growth: Following a 4.2% unit CAGR over the last five years, we expect growth of ~2.1% over the next four, or ~200 units per year (LT guide 200-250 units). Given a primary focus on improving SSS, competitive headwinds, reduced growth in core markets, cost pressures and increased capital needed for remodels, a more tempered unit growth strategy seems prudent. ■ Valuation: Our $70 target price is based on ~16x our NTM EBITDA in 12 months, a ~0.5x turn premium to DNKN’s three-year average given the run- up in valuations in the sector, though a discount to its current multiple of ~18.5x. Key risks: M&A, accelerating traffic and SSS, accelerating unit growth. Share price performance Financial and valuation metrics Year 12/18A 12/19E 12/20E 12/21E EPS (CS adj.) (US$) 2.90 2.98 3.16 3.39 Prev. EPS (US$) - - - - P/E rel. (%) 153.6 154.8 161.9 165.4 Revenue (US$ m) 1,321.6 1,379.5 1,425.6 1,472.1 EBITDA (US$ m) 454.5 482.6 501.2 520.1 OCFPS (US$) 3.17 3.32 3.58 3.83 P/OCF (x) 20.0 24.0 22.2 20.7 EV/EBITDA (current) 20.0 18.8 18.1 17.4 On 21-Jun-2019 the S&P 500 INDEX closed at 2950.46 Net debt (US$ m) 2,453 2,446 2,499 2,568 Daily Jun22, 2018 - Jun21, 2019, 06/22/18 = US$69.76 ROIC (%) 19.71 19.07 19.57 20.16 Quarterly EPS Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Number of shares (m) 82.65 IC (current, US$ m) 1,740.35 2018A 0.62 0.77 0.83 0.68 BV/share (Next Qtr., US$) -8.8 Dividend (current, US$) 1.50 2019E 0.67 0.82 0.81 0.68 Net debt (Next Qtr., US$ m) 2,513.0 2020E 0.70 0.87 0.86 0.73 Net debt/tot eq (Next Qtr.,%) -348.8 Source: Company data, Refinitiv, Credit Suisse estimates DISCLOSURE APPENDIX AT THE BACK OF THIS REPORT CONTAINS IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES, ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS, LEGAL ENTITY DISCLOSURE AND THE STATUS OF NON-US ANALYSTS. US Disclosure: Credit Suisse does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the Firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. 25 June 2019 Dunkin’ Brands Group, Inc. (DNKN) Price (21 Jun 2019): US$79.54; Rating: UNDERPERFORM; Target Price: 70.00; Analyst: Lauren Silberman Income Statement 12/18A 12/19E 12/20E 12/21E Company Background Revenue (US$ m) 1,321.6 1,379.5 1,425.6 1,472.1 Dunkin' Brands Group is one of the world's leading franchisors of EBITDA (US$ m) 455 483 501 520 quick service restaurants with over 20,500 points of distribution Depr. & amort. (20) (20) (20) (21) globally across its two brands: Dunkin' Donuts and Baskin Robbins. EBIT (US$) 435 463 481 499 Net interest exp (122) (122) (122) (122) Blue/Grey Sky Scenario PBT (US$) 312 341 359 377 Income taxes (66) (94) (100) (105) Profit after tax 246 247 258 271 Net profit (US$) 246 247 258 271 Other NPAT adjustments 0 0 0 0 Cash Flow 12/18A 12/19E 12/20E 12/21E Cash flow from operations 269 275 292 306 CAPEX (52) (39) (32) (32) Free cashflow to the firm 217 235 260 274 Cash flow from investments (52) (40) (32) (32) Net share issue(/repurchase) (680) (110) (180) (200) Dividends paid (115) (123) (133) (144) Changes in Net Cash/Debt (490) 7 (53) (69) Balance Sheet (US$) 12/18A 12/19E 12/20E 12/21E Cash & cash equivalents 518 510 457 388 Account receivables 76 65 67 69 Other current assets 220 185 185 185 Total fixed assets 209 226 238 249 Investment securities - - - - Total assets 3,457 3,786 3,747 3,690 Total current liabilities 540 529 529 529 Shareholder equity (713) (691) (730) (786) Total liabilities and equity 3,457 3,786 3,747 3,690 Net debt 2,453 2,446 2,499 2,568 Our Blue Sky Scenario (US$) 85.00 Per share 12/18A 12/19E 12/20E 12/21E Our $85 Blue Sky scenario is based on the following assumptions in No. of shares (wtd avg) 85 83 82 80 2020: 1) Dunkin’ US SSS of 3%; 2) Unit growth of 3%; 3) operating CS adj. EPS 2.90 2.98 3.16 3.39 margin of ~55% (51.1% in 2018); and 4) EV/EBITDA multiple of Prev. EPS (US$) ~18.5x. Dividend (US$) 1.39 1.50 1.65 1.81 Free cash flow per share 2.56 2.84 3.19 3.43 Earnings 12/18A 12/19E 12/20E 12/21E Our Grey Sky Scenario (US$) 55.00 Sales growth (%) 3.6 4.4 3.3 3.3 Our $55 Grey Sky scenario is based on the following assumptions in EBIT growth (%) 5.7 6.5 3.9 3.8 2020: 1) Dunkin’ US SSS of approx. flat; 2) unit growth of ~1%; 3) Net profit growth (%) 29.2 0.1 4.7 5.1 operating margin of ~53%; and 4) EV/EBITDA multiple of ~15x. EPS growth (%) 40.2 2.7 6.3 7.3 EBITDA margin (%) 34.4 35.0 35.2 35.3 Share price performance EBIT margin (%) 32.9 33.5 33.7 33.9 Pretax margin (%) 23.6 24.7 25.1 25.6 Net margin (%) 18.6 17.9 18.1 18.4 Valuation 12/18A 12/19E 12/20E 12/21E EV/EBITDA (x) 20.0 18.8 18.1 17.4 P/E (x) 27.4 26.7 25.1 23.4 Returns 12/18A 12/19E 12/20E 12/21E ROIC (%) 19.7 19.1 19.6 20.2 Gearing 12/18A 12/19E 12/20E 12/21E Net debt/equity (%) (344.2) (354.1) (342.3) (326.6) Quarterly EPS Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2018A 0.62 0.77 0.83 0.68 2019E 0.67 0.82 0.81 0.68 2020E 0.70 0.87 0.86 0.73 On 21-Jun-2019 the S&P 500 INDEX closed at 2950.46 Daily Jun22, 2018 - Jun21, 2019, 06/22/18 = US$69.76 Source: Company data, Refinitiv, Credit Suisse estimates Dunkin’ Brands Group, Inc. (DNKN) 2 25 June 2019 Executive Summary We initiate coverage of Dunkin’ Brands (DNKN) with an Underperform rating and $70 target price. At ~18.5x NTM EV/EBITDA, DNKN trades near peak valuation despite ongoing traffic and SSS challenges and lowered development targets. While we believe DNKN’s 100% franchised business model warrants a premium to overall restaurants, its multiple has moved in-line with heavily franchised peers despite higher peer multiples driven by business model transformations. We see downside risk to shares against lower growth prospects and elevated valuation. Please refer to our views summarizing the Restaurants industry: US Restaurants Phone To Table: Digitizing Restaurants. ■ Dunkin’ US Traffic and SSS Likely Remain Sluggish: Dunkin’ US SSS have been sluggish in recent years, averaging 1.2% over the last five years, with largely negative traffic offset by increases in average check. Traffic was -2.7% in 2018 and has been consistently negative over the last three years, offset by price increases and some benefit from mix shift. Initiatives to improve trends through beverage positioning, better value messaging, digital and operational improvements have largely failed to gain traction. We believe DNKN faces heightened competitive pressure given mixed brand positioning as it competes against lower-end channels, QSRs increasing their coffee focus and traditional coffee peers. With limited conviction in traffic and SSS acceleration given recent trends, we model SSS relatively in-line with the five-year average (~1.5%). ■ Lower Unit Growth Expectations: Following a ~4.2% unit CAGR over the last five years, or ~350 units per year, we expect Dunkin’ to pursue a more moderate unit growth strategy going forward as it prioritizes SSS and traffic growth and looks to roll out the new remodel image across the system.
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