The New Normal Predicting Climate Impacts and Building Resilient Communities

The New Normal Predicting climate impacts and building resilient communities

join us: Acknowledgements The primary funding for this work was generously provided by the Joyce Foundation. Additional support for Clean Wisconsin’s climate program work is provided by the Garfield Foundation.

Lead Author: Katy Walter, Clean Energy Specialist, Clean Wisconsin

Several Clean Wisconsin staffers assisted with this report. Special thanks to: Keith Reopelle, Senior Policy Director Amanda Wegner, Creative Director Tyson Cook, Staff Scientist Sam Weis, Communications Director

About Clean Wisconsin Clean Wisconsin is an environmental advocacy organization that works to protect Wisconsin’s clean water and air and advocates for clean energy by being an effective voice in the state legislature and by holding elect- ed officials and polluters accountable. Clean Wisconsin was founded in 1970 as Wisconsin’s Environmental Decade and is the state’s largest environmental advocacy organization.

page 2 The New Normal Preparing for the New Normal

Unprecedented warm spring temperatures interrupt on many facets of life in Wisconsin. Agriculture and Wisconsin’s annual spring maple syrup harvest, leaving outdoor recreation, two prime areas susceptible to a the industry hurting from a 68% decline in production. changing climate, are critical to our way of life and key Cherry farmers from Door County and apple farmers pillars of our economy. Unfortunately, we are already in Bayfield watch helplessly as their fruit trees blos- beginning to see major impacts in these areas. Wiscon- som early, only to be destroyed by frost. In the midst of sin is experiencing the sharpest increase in severe rain1 one of the worst droughts in memory, corn farmers in and is among the states that are warming at the fastest southern Wisconsin hope for rain to save their crops, rate2; Climate Central ranked Wisconsin No. 1 overall as over 6 inches of rain falls on Northern Wisconsin, for record-breaking heat in 2012.3 Going forward, we flooding UW-Superior buildings and causing over $8.5 will continue to be one of the most affected states. million in damage. Overall, WICCI’s modeling estimates with 90% confi- From crop losses for farmers to high prices at gro- dence that Wisconsin may see temperatures rise by 4°F cery stores for our families, flooded basements to dead, to 9°F by 2050. This change will have significant impacts dried-up lawns, residents across Wisconsin were deeply throughout the state, with, for example, twice as many impacted by 2012’s extreme weather. 90˚F days a year by 2050.4 Overall precipitation patterns While we wait to tally the final costs of this year’s are likely to change as well, paradoxically including extreme weather, we’re left with a lingering question: is this year’s extreme weather merely an anomaly, or is it a “new normal” that is the result of climate change? Climate change promises to It is a difficult, yet important question to answer. Luck- have a dramatic impact on many ily, we have a much clearer picture of our future climate facets of life in Wisconsin. in Wisconsin thanks to cutting-edge research from top climate scientists at the Wisconsin Initiative on Climate more droughts and flooding as dry conditions are bro- Change Impacts (WICCI), a partnership between the ken up by more severe rain events. Nelson Institute at University of Wisconsin Madison and the Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources. However, predicting future weather patterns does This valuable research can help us predict, and thereby little on its own. In recognition of this fact, this report better prepare for, climate changes. explores ways that Wisconsin residents, businesses, and industries can limit the impacts of climate change. Each It is impossible to point to any one weather event and section of this report includes an example of an effort say it is the result of climate change; however, growing that will better prepare our state. For instance, stories certainty and understanding in the field of climate sci- like Milwaukee Metropolitan Sewerage District’s ence enable us to better predict weather patterns we can stormwater upgrades demonstrate that preparing for expect to see change. This report aims to use the best an uncertain future can also make our communities science available to connect some of the dots between better, more resilient places to live. With such major what we’re experiencing today and what we will likely changes expected, it is important to take stock of what experience in the future. the future may hold and begin to prepare our farms, Climate change promises to have a dramatic impact communities and residents for the “new normal.”

www.cleanwisconsin.org Introduction | page 3 Table of Contents

Introduction: The New Normal 3 Agriculture: Our Most Iconic Industry 5 In the News 5 By the Numbers 7 Building Resilience: Wisconsin’s New Phosphorus Rule 8 Health: Impacting Our Most Vulnerable Populations 9 In the News 9 By the Numbers 11 Building Resilience: Flood Management & Green Infrastructure in Milwaukee 12 Tourism: Predicting Climate Impacts 13 In the News 13 By the Numbers 14 Building Resilience: Trout Stream Restoration in the Driftless area 15 References 17

page 4 The New Normal Agriculture Our most iconic industry

For good reason, Wisconsin is known as the Dairy State: In the News Both our identity and our economy are tied to the iconic agricul- Maple Syrup harvest down in ture sector. For perspective, it’s worth noting that the dairy industry 2012 due to warm spring in Wisconsin is bigger than Florida’s citrus industry or Idaho’s po- Wisconsin Ag Connection, 6/19/2012 tato industry. But Wisconsin’s agricultural industry is much more There’s no sugar coating it: Wisconsin’s 2012 maple syrup season was not very diverse. Wisconsin is a national leader in a number of crops, in- good this year. State agriculture officials cluding vegetables like carrots, snap beans, ginseng and sweet corn, say 50,000 gallons of syrup was made grains like oats and corn, and commodities like maple syrup and this spring, down 68 percent from the 155,000 gallons harvested in 2011. Sug- cucumbers for pickles. ar content was also off, as it required 44 gallons of sap to make one gallon of This diversity is due, in part, to our varied geography and geol- syrup — up from 38 gallons last year... ogy, and in each region a different set of strategies and techniques is The maple season began just over a week earlier than last year, but also needed to be successful. This diversity, paired with the hard-work- ended sooner because of the warmer ing Midwestern spirit, will serve our farmers well as we start to ex- temperatures. This year’s season aver- perience changes to our climate. These changes have the potential aged 10 days, which is 18 days shorter than last year. 5 to be both positive and negative and will vary for each farm and crop. Some of these changes, as identified in the 2011 WICCI re- Tart cherry crop in Midwest port, “Wisconsin’s Changing Climate,” are discussed here. destroyed by weather Associated Press, Dinesh Ramde, 7/13/2012 SISTER BAY, Wis. (AP) — Walk into Dairy Cherry Republic’s store in the heart of Like other warm-blooded mammals, there is an ideal temperature range the nation’s biggest tart cherry produc- ing region, and you could end up with for dairy cows where no extra energy is needed for them to maintain their jam or salsa with fruit that had to be body temperature. For dairy cows, this range is between 32°F and 68°F,8 imported from Poland. with any temperature above that potentially leading to heat stress. Heat Cherry Republic can’t get enough tart stress can have significant impacts on farm economics, including food in- cherries from its local orchards because 97 percent of Michigan’s crop was de- take, milk production, and reproduction and death rates of the dairy cows. stroyed this year by a freak weather pat- In 2003, a study estimated that dairy cows were in heat stress 9% of the tern. An unseasonably warm March that time in Wisconsin.8 For operations with few systems in place to provide caused trees to bud was followed by an April freeze that killed the blossoms. Trees in New York and Wisconsin, which have smaller but still significant tart cherry harvests, suffered the same weather damage...6

Crops, people wilt in intense heat across southern Wisconsin Isthmus, Nora G. Hertel, 6/28/2012 You don’t need the weatherman or ther- mometer to tell you, it is hot and dry in Madison. Since thaws in January, this year has proved unusually warm. Tem- peratures may reach 100°F Thursday... Madison has not seen a June this dry since 1988, says Chris Kucharik, associ- ate professor of agronomy and environmental studies at the UW-Madison.7 www.cleanwisconsin.org Agriculture | page 5 SHIFTING HARDINESS ZONES temperature control, heat stress led to an annual esti- PLANT HARDINESS ZONES mated loss of $72 per cow and 403 pounds of milk per WICCI climate scientists have docu- 8 cow. As temperatures continue to rise due to climate mented a significant expansion of change, this will lead to an increase in heat stress and Wisconsin’s growing season since 1950 . reduced output for dairy cows. Climate models project an increase in temperatures that will continue to Crops lengthen the growing season and affect Perhaps no other sector of the economy is more sen- crop productivity in Wisconsin . While sitive to climate than cropland. In 2012, record warm the extension of the growing season may spring temperatures followed by a late spring frost boost the productivity of some crops, 1990 Modern decimated cherry crops, and severe drought conditions others could see negative effects if pushed much of Wisconsin’s corn crop past the point of temperatures warm too much . To help us understand how climate will influ- return. Extreme weather, however, is merely one exam- ence agriculture, we can look at how ple of what our farmers may face due to climate change; plant hardiness zones are shifting with changing conditions could bring new weeds and pests, changes in climatic conditions . As these and uncertain weather patterns may threaten the pro- zones shift, so do the types of plants ductivity of crops critical to Wisconsin’s economy. that are able to grow in varying regions The effect of a changing climate is evident in the US- of the state . DA’s newest Plant Hardiness Zone Map (see page 6). 2050 Low Emissions This map, which is based on the average annual lowest 2050 High Emissions We have already seen shifts in plant hardiness zones; these will continue to winter temperature over a 30-year period, helps growers move northward as the climate con- determine what plants will thrive in their areas. Since tinues to change . The maps illustrate 1950, Wisconsin’s growing season has been expanding, potentially major changes in climatic and climate models predict higher temperatures will conditions that characterize Wisconsin, lengthen our growing season even more. With higher and by the end of the century we might temperatures shifting plant hardiness zones north, it is be able to grow new varieties of fruit possible that Wisconsin could grow new fruit crops in crops, but new insects and diseases the future. that impact all of our crops may move into the region, and growers may be 2090 High Emissions 2090 Low Emissions Hardiness zones can tell us how growing patterns challenged by additional management are changing, but to better understand how changes problems that will require adaptive mea- in our climate will impact agriculture, WICCI scien- sures . This implies that the growth and tists took a more detailed look at Wisconsin’s top crops: 3b 4a 4b 5a maintenance of our state’s agricultural corn and soybeans. Using crop yield information and crops, particularly the fruit industry, climate data to predict future yields, they found a mix may require new management methods of possible outcomes. While higher temperatures could and practices to remain profitable . lower crop yields, increased precipitation may have the opposite effect on the state’s crops. The bottom line is 5b 6a 6b 7a that any warming during the core growing season may negatively impact crop yields. To the casual observer, it often seems that the only plants that thrive during drought are weeds; unfortu- Figure 2. Plant hardiness maps. nately, this is more than just anecdotal. Higher tem- Source: Michael Notaro,Plant David Hardiness Lorenz and Maps Daniel Vimont, Nelson Institute Center for Climatic Research, peratures and changes in precipitation could herald University of Wisconsin-Madison.Based on high- and low- new diseases and pests that bring challenges to all our emissions scenarios4 crops. As weeds and pests become more vigorous, the 100 Agriculture and the Soil Resource Impacts and Vulerabilities use of herbicides and insecticides may increase, in turn strengthening their resistance to these methods of control. Going forward, new strategies will likely be needed to protect crops from the threat of pests and weeds. page 6 The New Normal More Research Needed WICCI scientists note that more research is needed in the area of climate change impacts on agriculture, in part because it is clear that changes in climate have already occurred and are having an adverse impact on this important sector of our economy today. However, there are a number of options already available to farmers that will help them adapt to climate changes, including altering planting dates and planting new crops. But more extreme climate change scenarios will require a more systemic approach that goes beyond the scope of a single farmer.9 Monsanto scientist David Gustafson writes that While our agricultural systems can adapt while our agricultural systems can adapt to the types of changes expected through 2050, “Beyond that time, to expected climate changes through modeling suggests that crop productivity in all regions 2050, “Beyond that time, modeling sug- could begin to be harmed by higher temperatures pre- gests that crop productivity in all regions dicted for that period … unless successful greenhouse gas mitigation measures are implemented soon.”10 could begin to be harmed by higher temperatures predicted … unless successful greenhouse gas mitigation measures are implemented soon.” —Monsanto scientist David Gustafson

By the numbers

One in every 10 Wisconsinites works in a job related to agriculture 11

Corn crop classified as “poor” or “very poor,” July 201212 43%

Chippewa Valley apple crop loss, 201213 50-60%

2012 maple harvest loss, from 201114 68%

Estimated cherry crop loss, 201215 94% www.cleanwisconsin.org Agriculture | page 7 Wisconsin’s Phosphorus Rule includes an innovative new tool linking farmers with incentives to implement soil conservation practices; in addition, it has the added benefit of protecting against the growing threat of climate change. Designed to clean up dangerous and smelly algae blooms in our waters, provisions in this rule allow farmers to participate in efforts to improve their watersheds and protect their fields from costly soil erosion. Soil erosion is a significant problem for farmers, as the top layer of soil is the most supportive of plant growth. Just a small number of precipitation events each year causes most of the soil erosion on cropland in Wisconsin and leads to runoff pollution in our waterways. Instead of being absorbed by crops, intense rains can send nutrients like phosphorus into our rivers and lakes, causing algae blooms. Without appropriate adaptation measures, WICCI scientists predict that climate change and other complicating factors could cause soil erosion to double by 2050 (from 1990 rates). Enter the Phosphorus Rule. Unlike other pollut- Water-quality ants regulated under the Clean Water Act, phospho- sampling in a rus pollution largely comes from nonpoint sources, phosphorus- plagued, like farm field runoff and urban lawns, which makes algae-filled this a challenging problem. A provision in Wisconsin’s lake. new phosphorus rule, called the Watershed Adaptive Managment Option, allows point sources like stormwater treatment facilities and factories to work with landowners and farmers to achieve significant pollu- PHOTO: Chetek Lakes Protection Association tion reduction at a much lower cost. Not only do point sources avoid expensive technologies that cost tens of millions of dollars, but landowners receive financial as- sistance to reduce soil erosion and runoff pollution. Building resilience Beyond preventing the loss of valuable nutrients, soil conservation practices like no-tillage farming can ben- Wisconsin’s Phosphorus Rule efit farmers in other ways as well. No-tillage farming reduces labor, irrigation and fuel costs. Crop rotation keeps fields in constant production and can slow the spread of diseases and pests. Wisconsin’s new Intense rain events as well as periods of drought are Phosphorus Rule could projected to increase by mid-century; combined, these prove“ to be a useful tool conditions would put more land at risk for erosion. WICCI scientists recommend better implementation not only for cleaning our of existing soil conservation practices in order to help waters, but also for pro- farmers prepare for these threats. In addition, soil conservation has enormous potential to sequester carbon tecting the state’s valuable and slow the rate of climate change. Wisconsin’s new and productive farmlands. Phosphorus Rule could prove to be a useful tool not only for cleaning our waters, but also for protecting the ” state’s valuable and productive farmlands. page 8 The New Normal Health Impacting our most vulnerable populations

With long stretches of days over 90 degrees, the weather of In the News summer 2012 makes it easy for Wisconsinites to imagine what our Wisconsin braces for heat wave, future might look like under climate change. But apart from being 20 counties under heat advisory sticky and uncomfortable, higher temperatures are dangerous and WSAW CBS 7, Wausau, 6/27/2012 pose a significant threat to Wisconsin resident. While the potential The National Weather Service has issued a heat advisory for 20 southern impacts are still being explored, we know that climate change is a Wisconsin counties including; Mar- significant public health problem that affects our vulnerable popu- quette, Green Lake, Fond du Lac, lations the most. Sheboygan, Sauk, Columbia, Dodge, Washington, Ozaukee, Iowa, Dane, Jefferson, Waukesha, Milwaukee, La- fayette, Green, Rock, Walworth, Racine Heat waves and Kenosha.16 Contrary to our reputation as the “Frozen Tundra,” Wisconsin summers are quite hot and often include dangerous heat waves. In the United States, Historic heat wave claims more heat waves have been become longer, more prevalent and more intense victims 20 State Journal,Gayle Worland and over the last 40 years, and increasing temperatures will only make this Nico Savidge, 7/7/2012 worse. Scientists predict that Wisconsin could see more than twice as many 4 Blistering triple-digit temperatures that 90-degree days a year by 2050. beat down on southern Wisconsin for the third day in a row Friday claimed Heat waves are most dangerous for the elderly and younger populations, the lives of two people in the La Crosse who are more susceptible to heat illnesses like heat stroke. In Wisconsin, area and sent dozens to hospitals and there were 116 heat-related deaths from 1982-2008, with a large portion clinics in the Madison area with heat- 22 related illnesses.17 occurring in Milwaukee County. Cities are more vulnerable than rural areas to the “heat island effect,” where cities are hotter because impervious State: Warm spring means more surfaces like buildings and pavement store and radiate heat. tick activity Associated Press, 5/5/2010 The state Department of Health Ser- vices is warning Wisconsin about Lyme disease after a warm spring triggered more deer tick activity than usual.18

Ozone advisory for Milwaukee, Ozaukee counties Milwaukee Journal Sentinel, 6/28/20102 The Department of Natural Resources issued an ozone advisory for Milwau- kee, Ozaukee, Racine and six other counties until 1 a.m. Friday. This is the second consecutive day that state officials have issued an air pollution notice for the Milwaukee area. The state Department of Health Services is warning Wisconsin about Lyme disease after a warm spring triggered more deer tick activity than usual.19

This image released on July 3, 2012, shows the average maximum temperature forecast from July 3-7. Black signifies a temperature of 90˚F, bright orange signifies 109˚F.21 www.cleanwisconsin.org Health | page 9 Air Pollution Water Quality Air pollution already poses a serious threat to public Climate models predict that the number of heavy health. Prevalent air pollutants like smog and airborne rain events and the intensity of each event in Wiscon- allergens like pollen and ragweed are exacerbated by sin will increase over the next few decades. Heavy rains higher temperatures. With temperatures expected to bring flooding, and while flooding itself can be danger- increase 6˚F by mid-century,4 air pollution may poten- ous, rising waters increase the likelihood of the spread tially become an even bigger problem in the future. of waterborne diseases. Bacteria and viruses can be Ozone, or smog, forms when pollution from vehicles, spread when stormwater runs off contaminated lands, factories and coal plants react with sunlight and heat. floods drinking wells or causes sewers to overflow into Higher temperatures not only speed up waterways. this process but result in more smog. Wisconsin is already familiar with the spread of bac- Air pollutants decrease lung function, teria and viruses through flooding. After the series of trigger asthma attacks and send memorable large precipitation events in 2007-’08, E. people to the hospi- coli bacteria was found to have contaminated drink- tal, posing ing water in 30% of sources tested.25 Similarly, Milwau- kee’s infamous Cryptosporidium outbreak of 1993 hap- pened after heavy rains and record overflows into the Milwaukee River contaminated the public water sup- ply, resulting in over $96 million26 in medical and lost productivity costs.

Total cost of illness during the 1993 26 an additional threat to already vulnerable groups like cryptosporidiosis outbreak the young, elderly and sick. Illness severity Medical costs Lost productivity Total To warn the public of unhealthy air pollution levels, Mild $790,760 $40,212,000 $41,002,000 the Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources issues Moderate $2,710,800 $18,176,000 $20,887,000 Severe $28,153,000 $6,201,400 $34,355,000 air advisories. Through October 31, 2012, Wisconsin Total $31,655,000 $64,589,000 $96,244,000 had experienced 2.5 times as many bad air days as were Costs in 1993 U.S. dollars; may not add up due to rounding. issued in all of 2011.23 The high number of bad air days is likely caused in part by higher temperatures, more of which we can expect in the future. Allergies are not often thought of as a health threat, Vector-borne diseases but they can lead to asthma, result in lost work and The spread of vector-borne diseases, like the West school days, and significantly lower the quality of Nile virus carried by mosquitoes and Lyme disease life for those that suffer from itchy eyes and sneezing transmitted by ticks, are a focus of public health re- and have difficulty breathing. Treating the symptoms search on climate change as both are on the rise. caused by allergens like ragweed and pollen costs $21 An insect’s geographical range and its rates of disease 24 billion annually in the United States. Climate change transmission are impacted by temperature and precipi- could make this worse, as rising carbon dioxide levels tation patterns. For example, a study of horses infected speed weed growth, and higher temperatures lengthen by the West Nile virus showed a temperature drop short- growing seasons, subsequently extending the allergy ly after the outbreak ceased, suggesting a correlation be- season. tween temperature and transmission.27 Wisconsin saw People who are exposed to air pollution are even a 280% jump in Lyme disease cases between 1997 and more sensitive to allergens, and those with asthma are 2007, with a total of 2,376 cases statewide in 2011.28 More especially at risk, as allergies can trigger asthma attacks. extreme temperature swings may mean an increase Climate change threatens to complicate the situation, in these kinds of dangerous infections and diseases. with a combined threat of increased smog pollution and more allergens in the air.

page 10 The New Normal Risk Reduction According to Georges C. Ben- jamin, president of the American Public Health Association, “Cli- mate change is one of the most serious public health threats facing our nation...”29 While the full implications of climate change on our health is unknown, the public health community is preparing for what is to come. To reduce the risks of climate change on health, WICCI’s Human Health Working Group recom- mends a comprehensive approach that combines carbon pollution reductions and adaptation strategies.30 Using cleaner energy sources and designing cities that promote a less sedentary lifestyle will not only improve air quality and health but also slow climate change. Climate change is one of the most serious public health threats

facing our nation... Incidence of Lyme Disease in Wisconsin Over Time31 —Georges C. Benjamin, President, American Public Health Association By the numbers 116 Wisconsin Heat-Wave Deaths, 1982-’0822 Twice as many 90-degree days by 20504 2011 61 2012 (through 10/31/12) 159 Statewide Air Advisories23 2x

www.cleanwisconsin.org Health | page 11 Milwaukee residents are familiar with flooded basements that come with heavy rains and sewers flooded with more water than storage and treatment plants can handle. To meet the demands of a growing popu- lation while preventing potentially dangerous sewer overflows, Milwaukee Metropolitan Sewerage District (MMSD) is making necessary stormwater infrastructure upgrades and implementing green infrastructure and land conservation projects. Not only will these improvements better manage water during periods of intense rain to protect property and public health, but they also help prepare the region for a likely future with more extreme rain events. To cope with intense rain events, MMSD construct- ed deep tunnels 300 feet underground to store up to 521 million gallons of water until the water reclamation facilities can process it. Other projects to prevent overflows include the repair of extensive sewer leaks and sources of inflow; treatment plant upgrades; and homeowner and business efforts like disconnecting downspouts and installing rain barrels, rain gardens, green roofs or porous pavement. MMSD is also employing a unique strategy to ensure land in the watershed is able to do its job of managing In partnership with the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, MMSD completed this 79.5-acre native prairie restoration stormwater. MMSD’s Greenseams program is designed as part of the Greenseams program in the Village of Ger- to prevent future flooding by protecting critical lands mantown. with water-absorbing qualities, such as wetlands. With PHOTO: MMSD Greenseams, either a conservation easement is placed on a property or undeveloped property is sold volun- tarily to MMSD. The land stays undeveloped and is Building resilience sometimes planted with water-absorbing trees or con- verted from agricultural land to its natural state. Not Flood Management and only do wetlands and land with water-absorbing hydric soil filter water and keep stormwater out of waterways Green Infrastructure in and reclamation facilities, keeping them intact prevents Milwaukee the need for detention ponds and channels while pro- viding recreational opportunities for Milwaukee-area residents. By preparing for the future, MMSD In order to better understand the impact of climate can build a more resilient stormwater change on their systems, MMSD has asked for the “system that protects the community’s UW Climate Center and others to downscale WICCI’s models and provide recommendations for how they precious water resources while can better prepare for new conditions. By preparing for minimizing dangerous sewer over- the future, MMSD can build a more resilient stormwater system that protects the community’s precious wa- flows that could negatively ter resources while minimizing dangerous sewer over- harm public health.” flows that could negatively harm public health. Tourism Predicting climate impacts

From torrential rains causing Lake Delton to drain In the News to warm winter weather that threatens the Birkebeiner cross-country ski Winter tourism off to a good start race in Wisconsin’s Northwoods, it is clear that Wisconsin tourism is de- Milwaukee Journal Sentinel, Rick pendent on our climate. The third-largest industry in Wisconsin, tourism Barrett, 12/30/2010 spans nearly a dozen sectors, employs one in every 13 people and generated Blessed with early snow, resorts in $16 billion in economic impact for the state in 2011.35 For winter recreation northern Wisconsin and Michigan re- in particular, weather trumps all. Without cold temperatures and abundant port the winter tourism season is off to successful start.... snow, ski hills, snowmobile trails and ice fishing lakes stay empty and the With a forecast that calls for rain and communities and businesses that support these activities suffer. Looking at higher temperatures, winter tourism the key impacts of climate change on popular recreation activities, we get a businesses are praying for more snow better idea of what’s at stake. — and cold.32 Is snow too late for tourism in Winter Sports the state? Scientists predict that Wisconsin will see the most warming in the winter, Fox 11, Green Bay, 3/4/2012 with a 5˚F- to 11˚F-degree increase expected by 2050.4 Wisconsin’s notori- In Wisconsin, snow can mean many things for many different people. ously harsh winters will become milder; the season will become four weeks 38 It can be a nuisance, or a way to enjoy shorter and we will see up to three fewer weeks of sub-zero temperatures. some of your favorite winter activities. This might be good news for some, but we will also have 14 fewer inches of 4 But for the state’s tourism industry, snow a year. Snow on the ground often means a chance to enjoy the winter it generally means money during the season, but the many Wisconsin residents who snowshoe, ski, or snowmo- winter months. bile will have fewer opportunities to enjoy their sports in coming years. After a slow start to winter without any 36 sort of substantial snowfall, Northeast Ice cover on lakes has been declining over the last century, and predic- Wisconsin finally has enough to strap tions indicate that this will continue in the coming decades. In fact, some 33 on a pair of cross country skis. lakes in Southern Wisconsin may be ice-free all winter. This is particularly Emptied Wis. lake drains dollars concerning to the thousands of Wisconsinites who enjoy ice-fishing. The USA Today, 6/26/2008 tradition, which dates back to American Indians spearing fish in the winter LAKE DELTON, Wis. — One car after for food, is now being threatened by climate change. another pulls into the parking lot at a small public beach on the edge of Lake Delton. Swimming, though, is not on the agenda for the families who clam- ber out. They’re here to gaze at an empty lake... The 267-acre lake drained June 9 after rain caused flooding that broke through its banks and into the Wisconsin River, creating a chasm that toppled homes and severed a road.34

Days of Ice Cover on Dane County’s Lake Mendota, Over Time37 Fishing Brook trout demonstrate the most dramatic impact of climate change on PHOTO: Lake Delton home, Michael Kienietz, DNR Wisconsin. Home to more than 10,000 miles of trout streams enjoyed by fly fisherman from all over, these miles of streams are all at risk. If we continue at our current pace of polluting, Wisconsin would lose its entire brook trout habitat by 2050.4 Under the best case scenario, Wisconsin could still lose 44% of its brook trout habitat.4 The loss of this precious resource would also mean a loss of important tourism dollars; fishing has an annual economic impact of $2.75 billion, supports more than 30,000 jobs, and generates nearly $200 million in tax revenues.38 As for other popular game fish, there will be winners and losers with rising temperatures. Warm-water game fish like largemouth bass and northern pike will benefit from future changes, but not enough to make up for losses seen with their cold-water counterparts. Cold- water fish are expected to decline three times faster than warm-water fish will increase.4

Predicted distribution of brook trout in Wisconsin streams Great Lakes State under current climate conditions and three climate-warm- Property owners, boaters and the tourism industry ing scenarios.39 all have a clear stake in our lakes, but just as important is Wisconsin’s sense of place, which is wrapped up in our identity as a Great Lakes state. Dropping lake lev- As for inland lakes, the future is harder to predict els are a dramatic impact of climate change, and ports, with any certainty and will vary across the state. For harbors and properties along the lakes will all need inland lakes, one of the most significant impacts of to watch this trend. Scientific consensus is that Lake climate change is the increase in water pollution from Michigan and Lake Superior will fall .8 feet to 1.4 feet sediment and nutrients like phosphorus. Increases in by the end of the century.4 While climate change will the size and frequency of heavy rainfalls will send even very likely impact lake levels, the levels will vary widely more pollutants into our already choked lakes, so it will from their averages over the decades. As such, WICCI be even more important that we address water pollu- scientists recommend that shoreland-zoning and con- tion issues in coming years. struction follow high water levels to avoid risk.

By the numbers $16 billion Economic impact of 0 tourism35 brook trout $2.75 million habitat, 2050 Economic impact of fishing37 with current carbon pollution trends4

page 14 The New Normal Untouched by glaciers that would have turned its ridges and hills into gravel and rock, Southwestern Wisconsin’s Driftless area is home to world-class trout streams. The rolling terrain, marked with valleys and streams, provides excellent cold-water habitat for trout, and in their best state, these streams and rivers are enjoyed by anglers and canoeists, who in turn provide economic benefits to nearby communities. Through the centuries, however, erosion, land use patterns and flooding have put much of the Driftless area’s prized trout habitat in jeopardy. Efforts to revitalize this area started in the 1930s and helped to slow erosion, but new threats like nutrient Before runoff and stormwater have hampered existing restoration efforts. In 2004, a new regional approach was cre- ated to expand the work already being conducted by the Department of Natural Resources and many county conservation field offices; TUDARE, or Trout Unlimit- ed Driftless Area Restoration Effort, is accelerating the effort to ensure that these valuable cold-water streams are around for generations to come. By combining conservation in upland areas, habitat improvements along the streams, and partnerships between public and pri- vate entities, real progress is being made. More streams than ever are available to anglers and the area is seeing a revitalization of tourism that is bringing welcome in- come. For example, in 1999 the Kickapoo River Valley After saw $3.25 million in economic activity from canoeists PHOTO: TUDARE and anglers, an increase from the $500,000 in economic activity before the restoration of the river valley. Angling alone contributes $1.1 billion annually to the Building resilience economies of the Driftless area. While the exact nature of how climate change will im- Trout stream restoration in pact trout fisheries is still unclear, we know that access the Driftless Region to cold-water streams is essential for survival. Stream restoration projects like streambank stabilization can help in many ways, such as preventing the build-up of dark particles in the water that absorb heat. Addition- The restoration work will not only ally, restoration projects can convert slow, shallow and help preserve these world-class fish- wide streams into deep and narrow streams, which are “eries and protect Wisconsin’s strong more trout-friendly. According to project manager Jeff Hastings, “The restoration work will not only help pre- fishing tradition for future genera- serve these world-class fisheries and protect Wiscon- tions, but offers the added benefit of sin’s strong fishing tradition for future generations, but offers the added benefit of helping insulate these amaz- helping insulate these amazing ing waters from the threats of climate change.” waters from the threats of climate change.” www.cleanwisconsin.org Tourism | page 15 References

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