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The New Normal Predicting Climate Impacts and Building Resilient Communities

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The New Normal Predicting Climate Impacts and Building Resilient Communities The New Normal Predicting climate impacts and building resilient communities join us: Acknowledgements The primary funding for this work was generously provided by the Joyce Foundation. Additional support for Clean Wisconsin’s climate program work is provided by the Garfield Foundation. Lead Author: Katy Walter, Clean Energy Specialist, Clean Wisconsin Several Clean Wisconsin staffers assisted with this report. Special thanks to: Keith Reopelle, Senior Policy Director Amanda Wegner, Creative Director Tyson Cook, Staff Scientist Sam Weis, Communications Director About Clean Wisconsin Clean Wisconsin is an environmental advocacy organization that works to protect Wisconsin’s clean water and air and advocates for clean energy by being an effective voice in the state legislature and by holding elect- ed officials and polluters accountable. Clean Wisconsin was founded in 1970 as Wisconsin’s Environmental Decade and is the state’s largest environmental advocacy organization. page 2 The New Normal Preparing for the New Normal Unprecedented warm spring temperatures interrupt on many facets of life in Wisconsin. Agriculture and Wisconsin’s annual spring maple syrup harvest, leaving outdoor recreation, two prime areas susceptible to a the industry hurting from a 68% decline in production. changing climate, are critical to our way of life and key Cherry farmers from Door County and apple farmers pillars of our economy. Unfortunately, we are already in Bayfield watch helplessly as their fruit trees blos- beginning to see major impacts in these areas. Wiscon- som early, only to be destroyed by frost. In the midst of sin is experiencing the sharpest increase in severe rain1 one of the worst droughts in memory, corn farmers in and is among the states that are warming at the fastest southern Wisconsin hope for rain to save their crops, rate2; Climate Central ranked Wisconsin No. 1 overall as over 6 inches of rain falls on Northern Wisconsin, for record-breaking heat in 2012.3 Going forward, we flooding UW-Superior buildings and causing over $8.5 will continue to be one of the most affected states. million in damage. Overall, WICCI’s modeling estimates with 90% confi- From crop losses for farmers to high prices at gro- dence that Wisconsin may see temperatures rise by 4°F cery stores for our families, flooded basements to dead, to 9°F by 2050. This change will have significant impacts dried-up lawns, residents across Wisconsin were deeply throughout the state, with, for example, twice as many impacted by 2012’s extreme weather. 90˚F days a year by 2050.4 Overall precipitation patterns While we wait to tally the final costs of this year’s are likely to change as well, paradoxically including extreme weather, we’re left with a lingering question: is this year’s extreme weather merely an anomaly, or is it a “new normal” that is the result of climate change? Climate change promises to It is a difficult, yet important question to answer. Luck- have a dramatic impact on many ily, we have a much clearer picture of our future climate facets of life in Wisconsin. in Wisconsin thanks to cutting-edge research from top climate scientists at the Wisconsin Initiative on Climate more droughts and flooding as dry conditions are bro- Change Impacts (WICCI), a partnership between the ken up by more severe rain events. Nelson Institute at University of Wisconsin Madison and the Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources. However, predicting future weather patterns does This valuable research can help us predict, and thereby little on its own. In recognition of this fact, this report better prepare for, climate changes. explores ways that Wisconsin residents, businesses, and industries can limit the impacts of climate change. Each It is impossible to point to any one weather event and section of this report includes an example of an effort say it is the result of climate change; however, growing that will better prepare our state. For instance, stories certainty and understanding in the field of climate sci- like Milwaukee Metropolitan Sewerage District’s ence enable us to better predict weather patterns we can stormwater upgrades demonstrate that preparing for expect to see change. This report aims to use the best an uncertain future can also make our communities science available to connect some of the dots between better, more resilient places to live. With such major what we’re experiencing today and what we will likely changes expected, it is important to take stock of what experience in the future. the future may hold and begin to prepare our farms, Climate change promises to have a dramatic impact communities and residents for the “new normal.” www.cleanwisconsin.org Introduction | page 3 Table of Contents Introduction: The New Normal 3 Agriculture: Our Most Iconic Industry 5 In the News 5 By the Numbers 7 Building Resilience: Wisconsin’s New Phosphorus Rule 8 Health: Impacting Our Most Vulnerable Populations 9 In the News 9 By the Numbers 11 Building Resilience: Flood Management & Green Infrastructure in Milwaukee 12 Tourism: Predicting Climate Impacts 13 In the News 13 By the Numbers 14 Building Resilience: Trout Stream Restoration in the Driftless area 15 References 17 page 4 The New Normal Agriculture Our most iconic industry For good reason, Wisconsin is known as the Dairy State: IN THE NEWS Both our identity and our economy are tied to the iconic agricul- Maple Syrup harvest down in ture sector. For perspective, it’s worth noting that the dairy industry 2012 due to warm spring in Wisconsin is bigger than Florida’s citrus industry or Idaho’s po- Wisconsin Ag Connection, 6/19/2012 tato industry. But Wisconsin’s agricultural industry is much more There’s no sugar coating it: Wisconsin’s 2012 maple syrup season was not very diverse. Wisconsin is a national leader in a number of crops, in- good this year. State agriculture officials cluding vegetables like carrots, snap beans, ginseng and sweet corn, say 50,000 gallons of syrup was made grains like oats and corn, and commodities like maple syrup and this spring, down 68 percent from the 155,000 gallons harvested in 2011. Sug- cucumbers for pickles. ar content was also off, as it required 44 gallons of sap to make one gallon of This diversity is due, in part, to our varied geography and geol- syrup — up from 38 gallons last year... ogy, and in each region a different set of strategies and techniques is The maple season began just over a week earlier than last year, but also needed to be successful. This diversity, paired with the hard-work- ended sooner because of the warmer ing Midwestern spirit, will serve our farmers well as we start to ex- temperatures. This year’s season aver- perience changes to our climate. These changes have the potential aged 10 days, which is 18 days shorter than last year. 5 to be both positive and negative and will vary for each farm and crop. Some of these changes, as identified in the 2011 WICCI re- Tart cherry crop in Midwest port, “Wisconsin’s Changing Climate,” are discussed here. destroyed by weather Associated Press, Dinesh Ramde, 7/13/2012 SISTER BAY, Wis. (AP) — Walk into Dairy Cherry Republic’s store in the heart of Like other warm-blooded mammals, there is an ideal temperature range the nation’s biggest tart cherry produc- ing region, and you could end up with for dairy cows where no extra energy is needed for them to maintain their jam or salsa with fruit that had to be body temperature. For dairy cows, this range is between 32°F and 68°F,8 imported from Poland. with any temperature above that potentially leading to heat stress. Heat Cherry Republic can’t get enough tart stress can have significant impacts on farm economics, including food in- cherries from its local orchards because 97 percent of Michigan’s crop was de- take, milk production, and reproduction and death rates of the dairy cows. stroyed this year by a freak weather pat- In 2003, a study estimated that dairy cows were in heat stress 9% of the tern. An unseasonably warm March that time in Wisconsin.8 For operations with few systems in place to provide caused trees to bud was followed by an April freeze that killed the blossoms. Trees in New York and Wisconsin, which have smaller but still significant tart cherry harvests, suffered the same weather damage...6 Crops, people wilt in intense heat across southern Wisconsin Isthmus, Nora G. Hertel, 6/28/2012 You don’t need the weatherman or ther- mometer to tell you, it is hot and dry in Madison. Since thaws in January, this year has proved unusually warm. Tem- peratures may reach 100°F Thursday... Madison has not seen a June this dry since 1988, says Chris Kucharik, associ- ate professor of agronomy and environ- mental studies at the UW-Madison.7 www.cleanwisconsin.org Agriculture | page 5 SHIFTING HARDINESS ZONES temperature control, heat stress led to an annual esti- PLANT HARDINESS ZONES mated loss of $72 per cow and 403 pounds of milk per WICCI climate scientists have docu- 8 cow. As temperatures continue to rise due to climate mented a significant expansion of change, this will lead to an increase in heat stress and Wisconsin’s growing season since 1950 . reduced output for dairy cows. Climate models project an increase in temperatures that will continue to Crops lengthen the growing season and affect Perhaps no other sector of the economy is more sen- crop productivity in Wisconsin . While sitive to climate than cropland. In 2012, record warm the extension of the growing season may spring temperatures followed by a late spring frost boost the productivity of some crops, 1990 Modern decimated cherry crops, and severe drought conditions others could see negative effects if pushed much of Wisconsin’s corn crop past the point of temperatures warm too much .
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