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In »Lubadar« Ter Najnovejša Ve- Ljavna Sistematika Podlubnikov

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In »Lubadar« Ter Najnovejša Ve- Ljavna Sistematika Podlubnikov Novice iz varstva gozdov Št. 10 2017 Nikica OGRIS in Neva PRISTOV 1 Izboljšave modela za kratkoročno napoved pojava žledoloma v Sloveniji Nikica OGRIS 3 Prostorski prikaz razvoja osmerozobega smrekovega lubadarja (Ips typograp- hus) na območju Slovenije Oddelek za varstvo gozdov 8 Maarten DE GROOT, Lado KUTNAR, Dušan JURC, Nikica OGRIS, Andreja KAVČIČ, Aleksander MARINŠEK, Jana KUS VEENVLIET, Andrej VERLIČ Opozorilni seznam potencialno invazivnih tujerodnih vrst v slovenskih gozdovih in možne poti vnosa teh vrst Andreja KAVČIČ 16 REUFIS – ustanovljena mednarodna povezava za invazivne vrste v gozdovih na območju Evrope in Srednje Azije 19 Andreja KAVČIČ Usmeritve za pravilno rabo izrazov »podlubnik« in »lubadar« ter najnovejša ve- ljavna sistematika podlubnikov Nikica OGRIS 22 Sporočanje najdb invazivnih tujerodnih vrst v gozdovih v informacijski sistem Invazivke 25 Maarten DE GROOT, Andreja KAVČIČ Robinijeva grizlica, Nematus tibialis, nova tujerodna vrsta v Sloveniji Glavni urednik: prof. dr. Dušan Jurc Uredniški odbor: prof. dr. Maja Jurc Marija Kolšek Tehnični urednik: dr. Nikica Ogris ISSN 1855-8348 Naslov: Večna pot 2, 1000 Ljubljana, Slovenija http://www.zdravgozd.si/nvg Tel: 01 200 78 00 Fax: 01 257 35 89 Strokovni članek Izboljšave modela za kratkoročno napoved pojava žledoloma v Sloveniji Nikica OGRIS1* in Neva PRISTOV2 V letu 2016 smo razvili model za napoved debeline INCA, prihodnje T0 pa temeljijo na podatkih tempera- žleda in nevarnosti žledoloma do 12 ur v naprej (Ogris ture modela ALADIN. Vrednosti T0 shranimo v podat- in sod., 2016) s prostorsko ločljivost 1 km in časovno kovno zbirko (GeoDB). Potem na podlagi Rj–1 (prejšnja ločljivostjo 1 ure. Vir meteoroloških podatkov za oceno debelina žleda, INCA), P (količina padavin, ALADIN), debeline žleda je sistem za kratkoročno napoved INCA PT (tip padavin, ALADIN), T0 in V (hitrost vetra, ALA- (ARSO), iz katerega model črpa podatke o količini DIN) izračunamo debelino žledu Req, za naslednjih 72 dežja, ki zmrzuje, hitrosti vetra in temperaturi zraka. ur, ki jo prav tako shranimo v podatkovno zbirko Ge- Model za oceno debeline žleda simulira tudi taljenje oDB. Sledi izračun ranga debeline žledu na podlagi Req žleda. Model za oceno nevarnosti žledoloma je empi- in izračun napovedi nevarnosti pojava žledoloma (S) iz rični model na osnovi indeksa, v katerega smo vključili spremenljivk DV (indeks drevesne sestave), Naklon (na- debelino žleda, indeks drevesne sestave, naklon terena klon terena), Kamnina (indeks matične podlage) in in indeks matične podlage. ranga Req za obdobje 72 ur. Izračunane vrednosti (S) Model za napoved debeline žleda in nevarnosti žle- shranimo v podatkovno zbirko (GeoDB). Proces se doloma smo nadgradili z možnostjo napovedi do 72 ur v konča z izdelavo slik in animacij debeline žledu (Req) in naprej. Vhodne meteorološke podatke dobimo iz nume- ocene nevarnosti pojava žledoloma (S), ki jih shranimo ričnega meteorološkega modela ALADIN-SI (Pristov in v podatkovno zbirko EVG (Ogris, 2012). Podatki za pri- sod., 2002), s prostorsko ločljivost 4,4 km, meteorološke kazovanje rezultatov modela na spletnem portalu za var- spremenljivke pa napove za 72 ur v naprej na vsako uro. stvo gozdov (www.zdravgozd.si) se črpajo iz podat- Na ARSO so dodali izračun dodatne spremenljivke, tj. kovne zbirke GeoDB in EVG. tip padavin, ki je ena ključnih spremenljivk v modelu za Dopolnili smo spletno aplikacijo za prikaz kratko- oceno debeline žleda. Znotraj ALADIN modela so pa- ročne napovedi debeline žleda in pojava žledoloma v davine razdeljene v dežne in snežne, dodana pa je še di- Sloveniji agnostika za pojav dežja, ki zmrzuje. Postopek izračuna (http://www.zdravgozd.si/prognoze_zapis.aspx?idpor=30), debeline žleda in nevarnosti žledoloma je identičen kot kjer je poleg 12 urne napovedi na voljo še napoved za pri podatkih iz sistema INCA z dvema izjemama: vir po- 72 ur v naprej. Napoved si lahko ogledamo s pomočjo datkov za prejšnjo debelino žleda in spremenljivko, ki jo animacije ali spletne interaktivne karte (slika 2 in 3). model uporablja za taljenje ledu (število ur, ko je tem- peratura zraka večja kot 0 °C) je sistem INCA. Slednji Viri spremenljivki temeljita na analizi podatkov avtomatskih Ogris N., Pristov N., Kobler A. 2016. Model za kratkoročno napoved meteoroloških postaj, zato so podatki točnejši kot pro- pojava žledoloma v Sloveniji. Napovedi o zdravju gozdov, 2016. http://www.zdravgozd.si/prognoze_zapis.aspx?idpor=29. gnostični podatki modela ALADIN-SI. Polji le interpo- DOI: 10.20315/NZG.29 liramo na redkejšo mrežo. Vir podatkov o količini dežja, Ogris N. 2012. Prognostične osnove za varstvo gozdov Slovenije. Lju- ki zmrzuje, hitrosti vetra in temperaturi zraka za tri bljana, Silva Slovenica: 104 str. dnevno napoved pa je model ALADIN-SI. Pristov N., Cedilnik J., Jerman J., B. S. 2012. Priprava numerične me- Postopek se prične z odjemom napovedi izbranih ko- teorološke napovedi ALADIN-SI. Vetrnica, 4: 17–22. ličin iz ALADIN-SI: padavine (P), tip padavin (PT), hi- trost vetra (U in V komponenta), temperatura zraka (slika 1). Podatke prevzamemo na FTP strežniku ARSO. Vse prenesene podatke shranimo v prostorsko podat- 1Gozdarski inštitut Slovenije, Večna pot 2, 1000 Ljubljana; 2Agencija Repu- kovno zbirko (GeoDB, Microsoft SQL Server). Sledi iz- blike Slovenije za okolje, Vojkova 1b, 1000 Ljubljana račun T0 (število ur, ko je temperatura zraka večja kot 0 *[email protected] °C) in V (hitrost vetra) in sicer za naslednjih 72 ur. Prej- šnjo vrednost T0 prevzamemo iz podatkov sistema 1 Novice iz varstva gozdov 10, 2017 Slika 1: Shema modela za napoved pojava žledoloma za 72 ur v naprej Slika 2: Primer napovedi za debelino žleda 13. 1. 2017 ob 21:00 Slika 3: Primer napovedi za nevarnost žledoloma 13. 1. 2017 ob 21:00 Novice iz varstva gozdov 10, 2017 2 Kratki znanstveni prispevek Prostorski prikaz razvoja osmerozobega smrekovega lubadarja (Ips typographus) na območju Slovenije Nikica OGRIS* Uvod ljivke napove za 12 ur naprej s korakom ene ure. Vgra- Osmerozobi smrekov lubadar (Ips typographus Lin- dili smo tudi možnost napovedi razvoja I. typographus naeus, 1758) velja za eno ekonomsko najpomembnejših za sedem dni vnaprej in za ta namen smo uporabili po- vrst podlubnikov na navadni smreki (Picea abies (L.) H. datke o temperaturi zraka izključno iz sistema INCA ne Karst.) v Srednji Evropi (Wermelinger in Seifert, 1998.; pa tudi iz numeričnega meteorološkega modela ALA- Wermelinger, 2004). V skladu s Pravilnikom o varstvu DIN-SI (Pristov in sod., 2012), ki jih uporabljamo pri gozdov (2009) v Sloveniji poteka redno spremljanje izračunu napovedi zraka v točkovnem modelu RITY-1- gostote populacije smrekovih podlubnikov. Za namen XY. ugotavljanja prekomerne namnožitve smrekovih luba- Prostorska ločljivost modela RITY-1-GIS je 1 km × darjev se uporabljajo kontrolne pasti s specifičnimi fe- 1 km, kar je pogojeno s podatki o temperaturi zraka iz romonskimi pripravki ter kontrolne nastave. Obstoječi sistema INCA. Časovna ločljivost modela je en dan. sistem kontrolnih feromonskih pasti za spremljanje Model se samodejno izračuna vsak dan med 1. aprilom gostote populacije smrekovih lubadarjev je enoten za ce- in 31. oktobrom. Z modelom RITY-1-GIS lahko na karti lotno območje Slovenije in ne upošteva lokalnih razlik prikažemo potencialni dan, ko nastopi rojenje, napad v geografskih, klimatskih in ekoloških značilnostih po- drevesa, začetek in konec razvoja posameznih čistih in sameznih območij, ki pomembno vplivajo na populacij- sestrskih generacij in spremljamo lahko razvoj osmero- sko dinamiko smrekovih lubadarjev. zobega smrekovega lubadarja po razvojnih fazah od jaj- V srednji Evropi se za spremljanje razvoja osmero- čeca, ličinke, bube, mladega hrošča do odrasle žuželke. zobega smrekovega lubadarja pogosto uporablja fenolo- ški model PHENIPS (Baier in sod., 2007; Berec in sod., Postopek izračuna RITY-1-GIS sledi postopku izra- 2013). Model PHENIPS omogoča natančno določitev čuna RITY-1-XY (Ogris, 2017a). V nadaljevanju poda- datuma prvega rojenja in datum konca prve generacije jamo povzetek tega postopka z navedbo razlik med hroščev v odvisnosti od lokalnih klimatskih in geograf- obema postopkoma. skih razmer. Ogris (2017a) je implementiral in prilago- 1. Pridobitev podatkov o dnevni temperaturi zraka iz dil fenološki model PHENIPS (Baier in sod., 2007) za sistema INCA. simulacijo sezonskega razvoja osmerozobega smreko- 2. Izračun manjkajočih podatkov o temperaturi zraka s vega lubadarja v prostoru in času na območju Slovenije. pomočjo prostorske linearne regresije za zadnjih se- Model je poimenoval RITY-1, kar je kratica za Razvoj dem dni pred manjkajočim podatkom (glej poglavje Ips TYpographus, različica 1. Model RITY-1 omogoča o tehničnih podatkih o modelu RITY-1-GIS). izračun potencialnega razvoja osmerozobega smreko- 3. Napoved temperature zraka za naslednjih sedem dni. vega lubadarja za poljubno točko v Sloveniji. Model je Za ta namen uporabimo samo podatke modela implementiral v spletni interaktivni aplikaciji, kjer upo- INCA, ne pa tudi podatke modela ALADIN-SI, ki rabnik določi želen kraj, leto obravnave in izbere ali želi jih uporabljamo pri napovedi temperature zraka v uporabiti interpolacijo temperature zraka na točno dolo- modelu RITY-1-XY. Napoved izračunamo s pro- čeno lokacijo glede na njeno nadmorsko višino (Ogris, storsko linearno regresijo. 2017b). 4. Izračun dolžine dneva. Trenutna implementacija modela RITY-1 omogoča 5. Izračun kumulativne vsote efektivnih temperatur izračun potencialnega razvoja I. typographus za kon- zraka nad pragom 8,3
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