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From the IRA to the Islamic State: the Evolving Terrorism Threat in Europe

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From the IRA to the Islamic State: the Evolving Terrorism Threat in Europe December 2018 From the IRA to the Islamic State: The Evolving Terrorism Threat in Europe Authors Seth G. Jones Boris Toucas Maxwell B. Markusen A report of the CSIS Transnational Threats Program December 2018 From the IRA to the Islamic State: The Evolving Terrorism Threat in Europe Authors Seth G. Jones Boris Toucas Maxwell B. Markusen A report of the CSIS Transnational Threats Program About CSIS For over 50 years, the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) has worked to develop solutions to the world’s greatest policy challenges. Today, CSIS scholars are providing strategic insights and bipartisan policy solutions to help decisionmakers chart a course toward a better world. CSIS is a nonprofit organization headquartered in Washington, DC. The Center’s 220 full-time staff and large network of affiliated scholars conduct research and analysis and develop policy initiatives that look into the future and anticipate change. Founded at the height of the Cold War by David M. Abshire and Admiral Arleigh Burke, CSIS was dedicated to finding ways to sustain American prominence and prosperity as a force for good in the world. Since 1962, CSIS has become one of the world’s preeminent international institutions focused on defense and security; regional stability; and transnational challenges ranging from energy and climate to global health and economic integration. Thomas J. Pritzker was named chairman of the CSIS Board of Trustees in November 2015. Former U.S. deputy secretary of defense John J. Hamre has served as the Center’s president and chief executive officer since 2000. CSIS does not take specific policy positions; accordingly, all views expressed herein should be understood to be solely those of the author(s). © 2018 by the Center for Strategic and International Studies. All rights reserved. Acknowledgments PAGE Reports are rarely written without the support of numerous people working tirelessly behind the scenes. II The authors would like to thank Heather Conley, Tom Sanderson, Charles Vallee, Danika Newlee, Nicholas Harrington, Clayton Sharb, Hannah Byrne, Seth Harrison, and other members of the CSIS Transnational Threats Project and CSIS Europe Program for their invaluable support in producing this report. The authors would also like to thank Caroline Amenabar, Jeeah Lee, Timothy Heck, Rebecka Shirazi, Andrew Schwartz, and other members of the CSIS iDeas Lab and CSIS External Relations for their outstanding help in copyediting, designing, publishing, and promoting this report. The report would not have been possible without the helpful input from Paul Smith. The authors would also like to acknowledge government officials from the United States, United Kingdom, France, and other European countries who agreed to meet with the research team, discuss the terrorist threat and European counterterrorism efforts, and provide comments. Their time was immensely valuable in drafting this report. Finally, the authors would like to thank the Diana Davis Spencer Foundation (DDSF) for their support to CSIS. For more than 10 years, the support of DDSF has ensured that CSIS can provide bipartisan strategic insights and policy solutions. Without their support, this report would not be possible. Center for Strategic & International Studies 1616 Rhode Island Avenue, NW Washington, D.C. 20036 202-887-0200 | www.csis.org Table of Contents Executive Summary IV Chapter 1: Introduction 2 Chapter 2: Terrorism Trends in Europe 6 Chapter 3: United Kingdom 16 PAGE Chapter 4: France 32 III Chapter 5: Policy Implications for the United States 48 About the Authors 56 Executive Summary • Terrorism from far-right extremism in Europe has been on the rise since 2000, as groups Europe faces a significant threat from terrorism, and networks have radicalized because of such particularly from Islamic extremists and far-right issues as refugees and asylum-seekers from groups. Europe’s challenges with terrorism have Syria and other countries. In 2017, Europe saw largely gone unnoticed in the United States, whose the highest number of right-wing attacks in over strategy documents like the U.S. Department of two decades. Defense’s National Defense Strategy have shifted away from counterterrorism and toward competition The current threat and response in Europe have with states like China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea. In several implications for the United States. First, the addition, Europe’s increasingly aggressive approach terrorism threat in Europe should give Americans to terrorists—including prosecuting individuals for pause. The threat of attacks from groups like the planning to travel abroad to join terrorist groups, Islamic State and al-Qaeda to U.S. allies like the United Kingdom and France is at one of the highest censoring extremist internet material, punishing levels since 9/11. In addition, the number of active internet companies that fail to remove extremist Salafi-jihadist fighters and groups worldwide are material, and improving intelligence cooperation— both at near-peak levels since 1980, indicating that have also largely gone unnoticed in the United States. the global threat remains substantial. Consequently, This report takes a renewed look at Europe and the recent paucity of successful attacks against the compiles data on the terrorism threat. It also United States at home or abroad, which are inspired examines the counterterrorism response by European or directed by groups like the Islamic States and al- governments, especially the United Kingdom and Qaeda, may be temporary. France. The report highlights several trends: As the European experience highlights, the internet • The number of failed, foiled, and successful PAGE and social media will likely remain a major tool of terrorist attacks perpetrated by Islamic the Islamic State, al-Qaeda, and other groups for IV extremists in Europe increased by 725 percent radicalization, recruitment, fundraising, and other between 2007 and 2017, though 2018 numbers terrorist activities. The ease of accessing online will likely decrease. information is particularly concerning because it • Islamic extremist material on the internet and allows for more rapid radicalization than previously social media platforms is pervasive, which seen. Savvy terrorist networks and individuals will will likely contribute to further radicalization in be able to incorporate advances in commercial Europe. Far-right material is also increasingly technology, such as encryption. Some extremists available online. will—and already have—moved their videos from large platforms like YouTube to smaller platforms • Terrorism from Islamic extremist groups like Dailymotion.1 Others have moved to the Dark accounted for 3.78 percent of all attacks Web. The evolution of commercial technology and between 2000 and 2017, but a notable 71.15 the diffusion of internet and social media platforms percent of all fatalities. will require Western governments to continually • The geographic distribution of attacks in Europe train government personnel, hire experts from has increased. European Union countries that technology companies and academia, update laws, have experienced Islamic terrorism now include and work with the private sector. Companies that such countries as the United Kingdom, France, cannot effectively take down content that supports Germany, Spain, Belgium, Sweden, Denmark, terrorism should be held accountable, including and Finland. through legal means. • Most recent terrorist attacks have been simple European governments, including France and (using such weapons as vehicles, knives, and the United Kingdom, have been aggressive in crude incendiary devices) and failed to kill large combating extremist ideology. They have put numbers of people. significant pressure on social media companies PAGE V ABOVE Britain's Prince Charles, Prince of Wales (R) and Imam Mohammed Mahmoud (L) visit floral tributes left close to the scene of the Finsbury Mosque attack in the Finsbury Park area of north London on June 21, 2017, following a vehicle attack on pedestrians. John Nguyen/AFP/Getty Images "Most significant Islamic extremist terrorist plots and attacks in Europe have been perpetrated by citizens of European countries. Similarly, in the United States, the number of terrorists that are refugees or asylum seekers has been small." to take down content that advocates or otherwise lacks a systematic disengagement strategy and supports terrorism or violent extremism, including should look to European governments for lessons. if the content violates company terms of services. Third, the rise of violent right-wing networks in Restricting extremist access to social media Europe—including in response to immigration requires companies to continue to devote staff concerns—should be a warning to the United PAGE time and engineering resources to detecting such States. In the United Kingdom, for example, extreme VI content and taking it down. Voluntary compliance right-wing groups did not present a significant with government requests may not be sufficient to terrorism threat until recently. Partly in response persuade some of these companies to spend as to rising domestic concerns about refugees much money, time, and effort as the task requires. and asylum-seekers from countries like Syria, Second, disengagement programs will remain the United Kingdom has experienced right-wing challenging. Numerous European governments have threats such as the Finsbury Park mosque attack shifted away from using the term “deradicalization” in June 2017. France
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