Jihadist Attacks on Critical Infrastructure
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PERSPECTIVES on TERRORISM Volume 11, Issue 5
ISSN 2334-3745 Volume V, Issue 5 October 2017 PERSPECTIVES ON TERRORISM Volume 11, Issue 5 Table of Contents Welcome from the Editors......................................................................................................1 Articles Countering Violent Extremism in Prisons: A Review of Key Recent Research and Critical Research Gaps.........................................................................................................................2 by Andrew Silke and Tinka Veldhuis The New Crusaders: Contemporary Extreme Right Symbolism and Rhetoric..................12 by Ariel Koch Exploring the Continuum of Lethality: Militant Islamists’ Targeting Preferences in Europe....................................................................................................................................24 by Cato Hemmingby Research Notes On and Off the Radar: Tactical and Strategic Responses to Screening Known Potential Terrorist Attackers................................................................................................................41 by Thomas Quiggin Resources Terrorism Bookshelf.............................................................................................................50 Capsule Reviews by Joshua Sinai Bibliography: Terrorist Organizations: Cells, Networks, Affiliations, Splits......................67 Compiled and selected by Judith Tinnes Bibliography: Life Cycles of Terrorism..............................................................................107 Compiled and selected by Judith -
How Sophisticated Are Terrorist Attacks on Passenger Rail Transportation
How Sophisticated are Terrorist Attacks on Passenger Rail Project SP 0520 Transportation June 2020 Brian Michael Jenkins and Bruce R. Butterworth Executive Summary Summary of Key Findings Terrorist attacks on passenger rail transportation are statistically rare events in the developed world— only about seven attacks per year are carried out against all of the economically advanced countries combined. However, uncovered plots and attempts indicate continuing terrorist interest in attacking transportation targets. The vast majority of terrorist attacks on passenger rail transportation are aimed at disrupting travel or causing casualties. Most of the attacks (87%) and 100% of the casualties result from attacks on passengers aboard trains and in stations, i.e., where the people are. We have defined sophistication by identifying four criteria, of which at least one must be met: The attack must (1) involve the recruitment of inside assistance, the use of insider knowledge, or the acquisition of specialized skills through training; (2) require the penetration of manned or closely monitored security systems; (3) involve the use of sophisticated weapons, devices, or means (for an IED to be considered sophisticated, it must do more than simply explode—it must have a timing or remote detonating system that guarantees detonation at a remote time or in a specific location, or it must be miniaturized or disguised so as to evade detection); and (4) must be complex—it must involve multiple actors with individual roles or coordinated simultaneous or near-simultaneous attacks at different locations. Using those criteria, we find few of the terrorist attacks on public surface transport are sophisticated. -
The Jihadi Threat: ISIS, Al-Qaeda, and Beyond
THE JIHADI THREAT ISIS, AL QAEDA, AND BEYOND The Jihadi Threat ISIS, al- Qaeda, and Beyond Robin Wright William McCants United States Institute of Peace Brookings Institution Woodrow Wilson Center Garrett Nada J. M. Berger United States Institute of Peace International Centre for Counter- Terrorism Jacob Olidort The Hague Washington Institute for Near East Policy William Braniff Alexander Thurston START Consortium, University of Mary land Georgetown University Cole Bunzel Clinton Watts Prince ton University Foreign Policy Research Institute Daniel Byman Frederic Wehrey Brookings Institution and Georgetown University Car ne gie Endowment for International Peace Jennifer Cafarella Craig Whiteside Institute for the Study of War Naval War College Harleen Gambhir Graeme Wood Institute for the Study of War Yale University Daveed Gartenstein- Ross Aaron Y. Zelin Foundation for the Defense of Democracies Washington Institute for Near East Policy Hassan Hassan Katherine Zimmerman Tahrir Institute for Middle East Policy American Enterprise Institute Charles Lister Middle East Institute Making Peace Possible December 2016/January 2017 CONTENTS Source: Image by Peter Hermes Furian, www . iStockphoto. com. The West failed to predict the emergence of al- Qaeda in new forms across the Middle East and North Africa. It was blindsided by the ISIS sweep across Syria and Iraq, which at least temporarily changed the map of the Middle East. Both movements have skillfully continued to evolve and proliferate— and surprise. What’s next? Twenty experts from think tanks and universities across the United States explore the world’s deadliest movements, their strate- gies, the future scenarios, and policy considerations. This report reflects their analy sis and diverse views. -
From Criminals to Terrorists and Back?
FROM CRIMINALS TO TERRORISTS AND BACK? KICK-OFF REPORT www.globsec.org AUTHORS Kacper Rekawek, Head of Defence and Security Programme, GLOBSEC Policy Institute Stanislav Matejka, Junior Research Fellow, Defence and Security Programme, GLOBSEC Policy Institute Martina Babikova, GLOBSEC Policy Institute Tomas Nagy, Research Fellow, Defence and Security Programme, GLOBSEC Policy Institute Jakub Rafay, GLOBSEC Policy Institute Design by Peter Verček, GLOBSEC The following distinguished partners were consulted in the process of preparation of this report. The sole responsibility for the content of this publication lies with the authors. • Austria - Daniela Pisoiu • Bulgaria - Rositsa Dzhekova, Nadya Stoynova • France - Olivier de France, Damien Saverot, Pierre Colomina • Germany - Matenia Sirseloudi • Greece - Eleni Fotou • Ireland - Orla Lynch • Italy - Marco Lombardi, Giovanni Giacalone, Nicolò Spagna • Netherlands - Jessica Sciarone, Bart Schuurman • Spain - Fernando Reinares, Carola García Calvo, Álvaro Vicente • United Kingdom - John Morrison, Aleksandra Łojek The project is funded under PMI IMPACT, a global grant initiative of Philip Morris International to support projects against illegal trade. GLOBSEC is fully independent in implementing the project and has editorial responsibility for all views and opinions expressed herein. CONTENTS PROJECT SUMMARY 6 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 7 FROM CRIMINALS TO TERRORISTS AND BACK? 10 INTRODUCING CRIME-TERROR NEXUS 10 RESEARCHING THE CRIME-TERROR NEXUS: CHALLENGES 12 RESEARCHING THE NEXUS: WHAT IS NEXT? -
April 11, 2021 Under Attack: Terrorism and International Trade in France
April 11, 2021 Under Attack: Terrorism and International Trade in France, 2014-16* Volker Nitsch Isabelle Rabaud Technische Universität Darmstadt Université d’Orléans, LEO, Abstract Terrorist events typically vary along many dimensions, making it difficult to identify their economic effects. This paper analyzes the impact of terrorism on international trade by examining a series of three large-scale terrorist incidents in France over the period from January 2015 to July 2016. Using firm-level data at monthly frequency, we document an immediate and lasting decline in cross-border trade after a mass terrorist attack. According to our estimates, France’s trade in goods, which accounts for about 70 percent of the country’s trade in goods and services, is reduced by more than 6 billion euros in the first six months after an attack. The reduction in trade mainly takes place along the intensive margin, with particularly strong effects for partner countries with low border barriers to France, for firms with less frequent trade activities and for homogeneous products. A possible explanation for these patterns is an increase in trade costs due to stricter security measures. JEL Classification Codes: F14; F52 Keywords: shock; insecurity; uncertainty; terrorism; international trade; France * We thank Béatrice Boulu-Reshef, Stefan Goldbach, Jérôme Héricourt, Laura Hering, Christophe Hurlin, Miren Lafourcade, Laura Lebastard, Daniel Mirza, Serge Pajak, Felipe Starosta de Waldemar, Patrick Villieu, three anonymous referees, and participants at presentations in Bern (European Trade Study Group), Darmstadt, Köln (Verein für Socialpolitik), Orléans (Association Française de Science Economique), Paris (Université Paris-Saclay, RITM, and Université Paris-Est, ERUDITE), and Poitiers for helpful comments. -
9/11 Report”), July 2, 2004, Pp
Final FM.1pp 7/17/04 5:25 PM Page i THE 9/11 COMMISSION REPORT Final FM.1pp 7/17/04 5:25 PM Page v CONTENTS List of Illustrations and Tables ix Member List xi Staff List xiii–xiv Preface xv 1. “WE HAVE SOME PLANES” 1 1.1 Inside the Four Flights 1 1.2 Improvising a Homeland Defense 14 1.3 National Crisis Management 35 2. THE FOUNDATION OF THE NEW TERRORISM 47 2.1 A Declaration of War 47 2.2 Bin Ladin’s Appeal in the Islamic World 48 2.3 The Rise of Bin Ladin and al Qaeda (1988–1992) 55 2.4 Building an Organization, Declaring War on the United States (1992–1996) 59 2.5 Al Qaeda’s Renewal in Afghanistan (1996–1998) 63 3. COUNTERTERRORISM EVOLVES 71 3.1 From the Old Terrorism to the New: The First World Trade Center Bombing 71 3.2 Adaptation—and Nonadaptation— ...in the Law Enforcement Community 73 3.3 . and in the Federal Aviation Administration 82 3.4 . and in the Intelligence Community 86 v Final FM.1pp 7/17/04 5:25 PM Page vi 3.5 . and in the State Department and the Defense Department 93 3.6 . and in the White House 98 3.7 . and in the Congress 102 4. RESPONSES TO AL QAEDA’S INITIAL ASSAULTS 108 4.1 Before the Bombings in Kenya and Tanzania 108 4.2 Crisis:August 1998 115 4.3 Diplomacy 121 4.4 Covert Action 126 4.5 Searching for Fresh Options 134 5. -
MAY 2018 Part C.Pdf
Page | 1 CBRNE-TERRORISM NEWSLETTER – May 2018 www.cbrne-terrorism-newsletter.com Page | 2 CBRNE-TERRORISM NEWSLETTER – May 2018 www.cbrne-terrorism-newsletter.com Page | 3 CBRNE-TERRORISM NEWSLETTER – May 2018 Weaponizing Artificial Intelligence: The Scary Prospect Of AI- Enabled Terrorism By Bernard Marr Source: https://www.forbes.com/sites/bernardmarr/2018/04/23/weaponizing-artificial-intelligence-the- scary-prospect-of-ai-enabled-terrorism/#7c68133877b6 There has been much speculation about the power and dangers of artificial intelligence (AI), but it’s been primarily focused on what AI will do to our jobs in the very near future. Now, there’s discussion among tech leaders, governments and journalists about how artificial intelligence is making lethal autonomous weapons systems possible and what could transpire if this technology falls into the hands of a rogue state or terrorist organization. Debates on the moral and legal implications of autonomous weapons have begun and there are no easy answers. Autonomous weapons already developed The United Nations recently discussed the use of autonomous weapons and the possibility to institute an international ban on “killer robots.” This debate comes on the heels of more than 100 leaders from the artificial intelligence community, including Tesla’s Elon Musk and Alphabet’s Mustafa Suleyman, warning that these weapons could lead to a “third revolution in warfare.” Although artificial intelligence has enabled improvements and efficiencies in many sectors of our economy from entertainment to transportation to healthcare, when it comes to weaponized machines being able to function without intervention from humans, a lot of questions are raised. There are already a number of weapons systems with varying levels of human involvement that are actively being tested today. -
Crimes Committed by Terrorist Groups: Theory, Research and Prevention
The author(s) shown below used Federal funds provided by the U.S. Department of Justice and prepared the following final report: Document Title: Crimes Committed by Terrorist Groups: Theory, Research and Prevention Author(s): Mark S. Hamm Document No.: 211203 Date Received: September 2005 Award Number: 2003-DT-CX-0002 This report has not been published by the U.S. Department of Justice. To provide better customer service, NCJRS has made this Federally- funded grant final report available electronically in addition to traditional paper copies. Opinions or points of view expressed are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the official position or policies of the U.S. Department of Justice. Crimes Committed by Terrorist Groups: Theory, Research, and Prevention Award #2003 DT CX 0002 Mark S. Hamm Criminology Department Indiana State University Terre Haute, IN 47809 Final Final Report Submitted: June 1, 2005 This project was supported by Grant No. 2003-DT-CX-0002 awarded by the National Institute of Justice, Office of Justice Programs, U.S. Department of Justice. Points of view in this document are those of the author and do not necessarily represent the official position or policies of the U.S. Department of Justice. This document is a research report submitted to the U.S. Department of Justice. This report has not been published by the Department. Opinions or points of view expressed are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the official position or policies of the U.S. Department of Justice. TABLE OF CONTENTS Abstract .............................................................. iv Executive Summary.................................................... -
Terrorism and International Trade in France, 2014-2016
Darmstadt Discussion Papers in ECONOMICS Under Attack: Terrorism and International Trade in France, 2014-16 Volker Nitsch, Isabelle Rabaud Nr. 241 Arbeitspapiere der Volkswirtschaftlichen Fachgebiete der Technischen Universität Darmstadt This text may be downloaded for personal research purposes only. Any additional reproduction for other purposes, whether in hard copy or electronically, requires the consent of the author(s), editor(s). If cited or quoted, reference should be made to the full name of the author(s), editor(s), the title, the working paper or other series, the year, and the publisher. ISSN 1438-2733 © Volker Nitsch, Isabelle Rabaud 2021 Printed in Germany Technische Universität Darmstadt Department of Law and Economics D – 64289 Darmstadt Germany www.wi.tu-darmstadt.de May 19, 2021 Forthcoming: Oxford Economic Papers Under Attack: Terrorism and International Trade in France, 2014-16* Volker Nitsch Isabelle Rabaud Technische Universität Darmstadt Université d’Orléans, LEO Abstract Terrorist events typically vary along many dimensions, making it difficult to identify their economic effects. This paper analyzes the impact of terrorism on international trade by examining a series of three large-scale terrorist incidents in France over the period from January 2015 to July 2016. Using firm-level data at monthly frequency, we document an immediate and lasting decline in cross-border trade after a mass terrorist attack. According to our estimates, France’s trade in goods, which accounts for about 70 percent of the country’s trade in goods and services, is reduced by more than 6 billion euros in the first six months after an attack. The reduction in trade mainly takes place along the intensive margin, with particularly strong effects for partner countries with low border barriers to France, for firms with less frequent trade activities and for homogeneous products. -
CSTPV Occasional Papers Framing of Online News Reporting on Terrorist
CSTPV Occasional Papers Framing of Online News Reporting on Terrorist Attacks in the United Kingdom (2015-17) Juraj Nosal Table of Contents Abstract ...................................................................................................................................... 2 1. Introduction ............................................................................................................................ 3 1.1 Review of Literature ..................................................................................................................... 5 2. Theory .................................................................................................................................... 8 2.1 Framing: definitions and conceptual considerations .................................................................... 8 2.2 Identifying and operationalizing frames ..................................................................................... 11 3. Methodology ........................................................................................................................ 13 3.1 Sample ........................................................................................................................................ 13 3.2 Research Methods ....................................................................................................................... 14 3.3 Research Design ......................................................................................................................... 16 4. -
Catherine De Bolle, Executive Director, Europol EDITORIAL BOARD Paul Cruickshank Colonel Suzanne Nielsen, Ph.D
OBJECTIVE ·· RELEVANT ·· RIGOROUS || JUNE/JULYJULY 2019 · 2018VOLUME · VOLUME 12, ISSUE 11, ISSUE6 6 FEATURE ARTICLE A VIEW FROM THE CT FOXHOLE A VIEW FROM THE CT FOXHOLE TheThe Dusit Jihadi Hotel Threat Attack and the Evolving Terror LTC(R)Catherine Bryan Price Threatto Indonesia in East Africa De Bolle Former Director, Matt BrydenKirsten and E. Premdeep Schulze Bahra ExecutiveCombating Director, Terrorism EuropolCenter FEATURE ARTICLE 1 East Africa's Terrorist Triple Helix: The Dusit Hotel Attack and the Historical Editor in Chief Evolution of the Jihadi Threat Paul Cruickshank Matt Bryden and Premdeep Bahra Managing Editor INTERVIEW Kristina Hummel 12 A View from the CT Foxhole: Catherine De Bolle, Executive Director, Europol EDITORIAL BOARD Paul Cruickshank Colonel Suzanne Nielsen, Ph.D. Department Head ANALYSIS Dept. of Social Sciences (West Point) 18 The Christchurch Attacks: Livestream Terror in the Viral Video Age Brian Dodwell Graham Macklin Director, CTC 30 From Daesh to 'Diaspora' II: The Challenges Posed by Women and Minors After the Fall of the Caliphate Don Rassler Joana Cook and Gina Vale Director of Strategic Initiatives, CTC 46 The Terrorist Threat to Europe from Frustrated Travelers Robin Simcox CONTACT Combating Terrorism Center U.S. Military Academy 607 Cullum Road, Lincoln Hall In our cover article, Matt Bryden and Premdeep Bahra trace the evolution West Point, NY 10996 of the jihadi terrorist threat in East Africa over the last three decades. They Phone: (845) 938-8495 argue that al-Shabaab’s January 2019 attack on the Dusit D2 luxury hotel compound in Nairobi, Kenya, “brought together three strands of al-Shabaab’s organizational DNA: Email: [email protected] its So mali provenance, its ideological affiliation with al-Qa`ida, and its growing cohort of trained, Web: www.ctc.usma.edu/sentinel/ experienced East African fighters. -
Terrorism in Europe
Updated February 10, 2021 Terrorism in Europe Current Trends right-wing extremists may be classified as hate crimes or European governments and the European Union (EU) have other offenses rather than terrorism. In 2016, a far-right, grappled with domestic and foreign terrorist groups for anti-immigrant extremist killed a member of the UK decades, but numerous attacks since 2014 have renewed Parliament. In Germany in 2019, a right-wing extremist concerns about terrorism and violent extremism in Europe. murdered a local politician in June and another killed two Despite variances in how terrorist events are defined and people in an October incident that included an attempted tracked, studies indicate that terrorism poses a security attack on a synagogue during Yom Kippur. In France and threat in many European countries (see data from Europol, Germany, authorities have disrupted several far-right plots the EU’s agency for police cooperation, in Figure 1). against Muslims or foreigners over the last few years. European countries and the EU are key U.S. partners in the fight against terrorism, and Members of Congress may be Figure 2.Terrorist Attacks and Fatalities by Type interested in European counterterrorism efforts. Figure 1. Terrorism-Related Attacks in the EU (includes failed, foiled, and completed attacks) Source: Europol’s Terrorism Situation and Trend Report (TE-SAT) publications, 2015-2020. Data include statistics from the United Kingdom (UK), which withdrew from the EU in January 2020. Of primary concern to Europe is “violent Islamist” terrorism. Such attacks, classified by Europol as “religious” or “jihadist” in motivation, have been much more lethal than other types of terrorism, accounting for nearly all Source: Europol’s TE-SAT publications, 2015-2020.