Catherine De Bolle, Executive Director, Europol EDITORIAL BOARD Paul Cruickshank Colonel Suzanne Nielsen, Ph.D
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OBJECTIVE ·· RELEVANT ·· RIGOROUS || JUNE/JULYJULY 2019 · 2018VOLUME · VOLUME 12, ISSUE 11, ISSUE6 6 FEATURE ARTICLE A VIEW FROM THE CT FOXHOLE A VIEW FROM THE CT FOXHOLE TheThe Dusit Jihadi Hotel Threat Attack and the Evolving Terror LTC(R)Catherine Bryan Price Threatto Indonesia in East Africa De Bolle Former Director, Matt BrydenKirsten and E. Premdeep Schulze Bahra ExecutiveCombating Director, Terrorism EuropolCenter FEATURE ARTICLE 1 East Africa's Terrorist Triple Helix: The Dusit Hotel Attack and the Historical Editor in Chief Evolution of the Jihadi Threat Paul Cruickshank Matt Bryden and Premdeep Bahra Managing Editor INTERVIEW Kristina Hummel 12 A View from the CT Foxhole: Catherine De Bolle, Executive Director, Europol EDITORIAL BOARD Paul Cruickshank Colonel Suzanne Nielsen, Ph.D. Department Head ANALYSIS Dept. of Social Sciences (West Point) 18 The Christchurch Attacks: Livestream Terror in the Viral Video Age Brian Dodwell Graham Macklin Director, CTC 30 From Daesh to 'Diaspora' II: The Challenges Posed by Women and Minors After the Fall of the Caliphate Don Rassler Joana Cook and Gina Vale Director of Strategic Initiatives, CTC 46 The Terrorist Threat to Europe from Frustrated Travelers Robin Simcox CONTACT Combating Terrorism Center U.S. Military Academy 607 Cullum Road, Lincoln Hall In our cover article, Matt Bryden and Premdeep Bahra trace the evolution West Point, NY 10996 of the jihadi terrorist threat in East Africa over the last three decades. They Phone: (845) 938-8495 argue that al-Shabaab’s January 2019 attack on the Dusit D2 luxury hotel compound in Nairobi, Kenya, “brought together three strands of al-Shabaab’s organizational DNA: Email: [email protected] its So mali provenance, its ideological affiliation with al-Qa`ida, and its growing cohort of trained, Web: www.ctc.usma.edu/sentinel/ experienced East African fighters. The successful combination of these traits in a single operation suggests that al-Shabaab’s longstanding ambition to transcend its Somali origins and become a tru ly regional organization is becoming a reality, representing a new and dangerous phase in the group’s SUBMISSIONS evolution and the threat that it poses to the region.” The CTC Sentinel welcomes submissions. Our interview is with Catherine De Bolle, the Executive Director of Europol, who previously Contact us at [email protected]. served as Commissioner General of the Belgian Federal Police between 2012 and 2018. Graham Macklin outlines what is now known about the Christchurch terrorist attacks. He writes: “In the space of 36 minutes on March 15, 2019, it is alleged that Brenton Tarrant, an Australian far- The views expressed in this report are right extremist, fatally shot 51 people in two mosques in Christchurch in the deadliest terrorist attack those of the authors and not of the U.S. in New Zealand’s history. What was unique about Tarrant’s attack—at least insofar as extreme-right terrorism is concerned—is that he livestreamed his atrocity on Facebook and in doing so, highlight- Military Academy, the Department of the ed the Achilles heel of such platforms when faced with the viral dissemination of extremely violent Army, or any other agency of the U.S. content.” Joana Cook and Gina Vale provide an updated assessment of the numbers of foreign men, Government. women, and minors who traveled to or were born in the Islamic State, examine the proportion that have returned ‘home,’ and outline the continuing challenges foreign women and minors affiliated with the Islamic State pose to the international community. Robin Simcox assesses the terrorist Cover: Members of security forces are seen threat from “frustrated travelers” in Europe by examining the 25 plots (eight of which resulted in at the scene where explosions and gunshots attacks) by such individuals since January 2014. were heard at the Dusit hotel compound, Paul Cruickshank, Editor in Chief in Nairobi, Kenya, on January 15, 2019. (Thomas Mukoya/Reuters) JULY 2019 CTC SENTINEL 1 East Africa’s Terrorist Triple Helix: The Dusit Hotel Attack and the Historical Evolution of the Jihadi Threat By Matt Bryden and Premdeep Bahra were killed and at least 28 injured.1 In contrast with the shambolic On January 15, 2019, a group of al-Shabaab terrorists car- response to al-Shabaab’s 2013 attack on Nairobi’s Westgate shop- ried out a deadly attack against an office complex in Ken- ping mall, Kenya’s security forces reacted with alacrity and profes- ya’s capital, Nairobi, that also hosts the Dusit D2 luxury sionalism, assisting some 700 people in the compound to reach hotel. During the course of the overnight siege 21 people safety. By mid-morning the following day, the siege was over and were killed and at least 28 injured. Although al-Shabaab the terrorists dead. The Somali jihadi group Harakaat al-Shabaab has struck Kenya several times previously, and with more al-Mujaahidiin, commonly known as al-Shabaab, claimed respon- sibility for the attack.2 deadly consequences, the D2 attack, as it came to be known, The D2 operation, as it came to be known, bore the classic hall- represented a disquieting milestone in al-Shabaab’s evolu- marks of an al-Shabaab complex attack: the tactics, techniques, and tion. In the past, the group had relied almost exclusively procedures employed by the assailants were all too familiar, tried on ethnic Somalis to carry out its ‘martyrdom’ operations and tested dozens of times over the past decade by al-Shabaab in both inside and outside Somalia. The terrorist cell that Somalia. Nor was it the first time that the group has conducted conducted the assault on the Dusit compound, however, mass casualty ‘martyrdom’ operations beyond Somalia’s borders. comprised Kenyan nationals of non-Somali descent, in- Only the successful deployment of a suicide bomber—something cluding a suicide bomber from the Kenyan port town of the group has managed to do in Uganda and Djibouti—distin- Mombasa. In the aftermath of the attack, al-Shabaab is- guished the operation from previous al-Shabaab attacks in Kenya.3 sued a statement claiming that it had staged the operation But the Dusit attack was unique in one important respect: it was the in accordance with an al-Qa`ida edict demanding retalia- first successful al-Shabaab martyrdom operation planned, led, and carried out primarily by Kenyans not of Somali descent.4 tion for the relocation of the U.S. embassy in Israel to Je- Although one operation does not in itself indicate a trend, key rusalem. The raid on the D2 compound brought together aspects of the D2 operation suggest that this is a new phase in the three strands of al-Shabaab’s organizational DNA: its So- evolution of the terrorist threat in East Africa and the Horn. The mali provenance, its ideological affiliation with al-Qa`ida, reasons are twofold: first, the coming of age of al-Shabaab’s East and its growing cohort of trained, experienced East Afri- African fighters, gradually transforming a predominantly Somali can fighters. The successful combination of these traits in organization into a more inclusive regional avatar of al-Qa`ida in a single operation suggests that al-Shabaab’s longstanding East Africa; and second, the faltering of Somalia’s political recon- ambition to transcend its Somali origins and become a tru- struction under the administration of President Mohamed Abdul- ly regional organization is becoming a reality, representing lahi Farmaajo and Prime Minister Hassan Ali Khaire,5 offering al- a new and dangerous phase in the group’s evolution and Shabaab ample time and space to plan and prepare new operations. the threat that it poses to the region. Historically, the threat of terrorism in the region has been at its most acute when three main strands of jihadism—Somali, East African, and global—have intertwined in a kind of ‘triple helix’: n January 15, 2019, a group of terrorists carried out Somalia serves as the geographic and organizational host; East Af- a deadly attack against 14 Riverside Drive, an of- rican extremists provide the foot soldiers who can operate most fice complex in Nairobi’s upscale Westlands neigh- effectively across the wider region; and al-Qa`ida provides the ideo- borhood that also hosts the Dusit D2 luxury hotel. logical legitimacy and global appeal. The 1998 suicide bombings of During the course of the overnight siege, 21 people the U.S. embassies in Kenya and Tanzania, killing over 220 people O and wounding thousands more, were the work of just such a triad: al-Qa`ida, the Somali jihadi group al-Ittihad al-Islami, and a net- Matt Bryden is an analyst with 29 years of experience working on work of Kenyan extremists that later came to be known as al-Hijra. peace and security issues in the Horn of Africa. He is a co-founder So, too, were the bombing of a tourist resort near Mombasa and and strategic adviser at the think-tank Sahan and has authored attempted shooting down of an Israeli passenger jet in 2002.6 numerous papers and publications on al-Shabaab. After 2002, the remnants of al-Qa`ida East Africa (AQEA) and al-Ittihad bound together out of necessity, giving rise to al-Shabaab. Premdeep Bahra is an investigative research analyst working Their East African comrades-in-arms entered a mutually support- with the think-tank Sahan on issues affecting the Horn and East ive relationship with al-Shabaab, but initially pursued an indepen- of Africa. She has been in this field since 2012 when she consulted dent path. In 2009, however, that trajectory began to shift, and in with the UN Somalia Eritrea Monitoring Group as a field analyst recent years, al-Hijra’s identity has been steadily subsumed by al- focusing on extremist groups in East Africa.