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1.2. Ingenico: an Acquisition and a Reassuring Publication

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1.2. Ingenico: an Acquisition and a Reassuring Publication INDEPENDENT RESEARCH Payments 6th September 2017 PSPs to play and avoid in the European payments sector Payments Finalised on 5th September In our sample of payment stocks, our preference is more than ever for GEMALTO SELL FV EUR39 Ingenico Group (for its attractive valuation and improved momentum), Bloomberg GTO FP Reuters GTO.PA Price EUR38.74 High/Low 63.98/38.6 Wirecard (best fundamentals in the sector and speculative appeal) as Market cap. EUR3,503m Enterprise Val EUR4,556m well as Worldline (a natural consolidator in Europe and good PE (2017e) 21.5x EV/EBIT (2017e) NS momentum). We remain negative on Gemalto (lack of visibility and INGENICO GROUP BUY FV EUR119 another profit warning possible for 2017), Nets (the current share price is Bloomberg ING FP Reuters INGC.PA Price EUR81.86 High/Low 95.01/69.73 close to the IPO price and already includes speculation) and Worldpay Market Cap. EUR5,105m Enterprise Val EUR6,560m (we advise selling to gain exposure to other European PSPs rather than PE (2017e) 17.2x EV/EBIT (2017e) 16.1x becoming shareholder of the new Vantiv+Worldpay group). NETS SELL FV DKK119 Bloomberg NETS DC Reuters NETS.CO The payments sector is attracting attention, which is no surprise given Price DKK150.4 High/Low 158.5/105.9 Market Cap. DKK30,142m Enterprise Val DKK36,612m its sharp growth (6-8% for physical payments and ~15% for online), PE (2017e) 20.2x EV/EBIT (2017e) 23.0x recurring sales, healthy margins (EBITDA margin of 20-25% for WIRECARD BUY FV EUR73 physical payments and 30-35% for online), excellent transformation of Bloomberg WDI GR Reuters WDIG.DE Price EUR71.57 High/Low 71.91/39.345 EBIT into FCF (60% on average for our sample) and still accessible Market Cap. EUR8,844m Enterprise Val EUR8,196m valuation levels. Not to mention the fact that European regulations are PE (2017e) 32.0x EV/EBIT (2017e) 26.6x favouring competition by reducing the monopoly enjoyed by banks (e.g. WORLDLINE BUY FV EUR37 cut in interchange commissions in the EU at end-2015 and PSD2 in 2018), Bloomberg WLN FP Reuters WLN.PA Price EUR33.5 High/Low 35.71/23.505 and since security issues (especially online fraud: ~50% of global fraud) are Market Cap. EUR4,428m Enterprise Val EUR4,123m PE (2017e) 27.0x EV/EBIT (2017e) 20.7x prompting banks to outsource payment activities to specialists. WORLDPAY SELL FV 278p We expect further consolidation in the payment services sector Bloomberg WPG LN Reuters WPG.L especially in e-commerce, like that seen a few years ago in the terminals Price 413.2p High/Low 430.4/256.6 Market Cap. GBP8,264m Enterprise Val GBP9,382m segment (in 2007 there were around 20 hardware manufacturers in the PE (2017e) 30.9x EV/EBIT (2017e) 27.0x world whereas today there is virtually only Ingenico and VeriFone). Until Top Picks recently, wide-ranging transactions have taken place between US players (Heartland Payment Systems bough by Global Payments in December 2015, TransFirst by TSYS in January 2016 and CardConnect by First Data Corp in May 2017) while Europe could now catch up its lag. We therefore believe that the next takeover move could target European players whether on a national scale (e.g. Dalenys' takeover by Natixis) or a transnational one (e.g. acquisition of UK group Worldpay by US group Vantiv). Analyst: Sector Analyst Team: Richard-Maxime Beaudoux Thomas Coudry 33(0) 1.56.68.75.61 Gregory Ramirez [email protected] Dorian Terral Frédéric Yoboué r r Payments Table of contents 1. H1 2017 and investment cases ....................................................................................................... 3 1.1. Gemalto: 4th profit warning in a row for 2017! ................................................................................. 3 1.2. Ingenico: an acquisition and a reassuring publication ....................................................................... 5 1.3. Nets: H1 slightly below forecasts, the group is considering signs of interest ............................... 7 1.4. Wirecard: solid H1 and excellent momentum ..................................................................................... 9 1.5. Worldline: healthy H1 figures and a fresh wave of M&A ............................................................... 11 1.6. Worldpay: a weak H1 and a firm offer from Vantiv ........................................................................ 13 2. Is there any real speculative appeal in our coverage? What to do? ........................................ 15 2.1. Players the most immune to takeover bids ........................................................................................ 15 2.1.1. Gemalto (Sell, FV EUR39) ..................................................................................................... 15 2.1.2. Ingenico Group (Buy, FV EUR119) ..................................................................................... 16 2.1.3. Worldline (Buy, FV EUR37) .................................................................................................. 17 2.2. Players with the easiest takeover profiles ........................................................................................... 18 2.2.1. Nets (Sell, FV DKK119) ......................................................................................................... 18 2.2.2. Wirecard (Buy, FV EUR73) ................................................................................................... 19 2.2.3. Worldpay (Sell, FV 278p) ........................................................................................................ 21 3. Multiples and main M&A deals ................................................................................................... 23 3.1. Multiples of players we cover ............................................................................................................... 23 3.2. Main M&A operations in payment services ...................................................................................... 23 4. Accounts of groups we follow ..................................................................................................... 24 Gemalto ......................................................................................................................................................... 24 Ingenico Group ............................................................................................................................................ 25 Nets ................................................................................................................................................................ 26 Wirecard ........................................................................................................................................................ 27 Worldline ....................................................................................................................................................... 28 Worldpay ....................................................................................................................................................... 29 Bryan Garnier stock rating system .................................................................................................... 31 Payments 1. H1 2017 and investment cases 1.1. Gemalto: 4th profit warning in a row for 2017! Gemalto's H1 2017 results were slightly below the consensus: H1 sales stood at EUR1.393bn (cons.: EUR1.405bn, BG EUR1.391bn) with a PFO of EUR93m (cons.: EUR96m, BG: EUR95m, guidance: EUR90-100m). The group announced a 9% like-for-like sales decline in Q2, representing an organic fall of 12% on our estimates (i.e. adjusting for the acquisition of 3M Identity Management Business, which contributed two months over the quarter). H1 sales were therefore down 10% in organic terms with a PFO margin of just 6.7%. This sales under-performance was due to the payments business at -19% (especially due to the Americas -37%) and the SIM business at -17% (deterioration). Fig. 1: H1 2017 sales were penalised by two main businesses Date Sales growth Contribution to Explanations (YoY) sales Payment -19% 30% Especially due to the Americas -37%: ongoing return to normalised inventory levels of US EMV cards at GTO’s customers, coupled with a soft market environment in Latam. SIM -17% 17% Lower market share in a more competitive landscape as MNOs continue to shift their investments from removable SIMs to focus on next-gen connectivity, coupled with soft demand in regions affected by a stricter subscription registration processes. Source: Company. The other businesses were not satisfying with Enterprise down 1% lfl, Government programmes up 1% lfl, M2M up 7% and Mobile Platforms & Services down 12%. The group is now expecting the trends seen in Q2 to continue in H2, namely YoY sales between -15% and -20% for both Payment and SIM businesses. This contrasts significantly with what it was previously hoping for in the second half of the year (stable organic growth over one year as of Q3, implying that 77% of full- year PFO would be generated in H2), a situation that we considered a blue-sky scenario. Finally, a EUR425m goodwill write-down was booked in H1 accounts (representing 100% of goodwill in the Mobile Communication division in 2016), to reflect the deteriorated outlook in the removable SIM market. Fig. 2: Four profit warnings in a row over 2017 (EURm) Guidance 2017 09/2013 28/10/16 22/03/17 24/04/17 24/07/17 PFO >660 500-520 ~453 390-450 293-323 Source: Company. Consequently, as we expected, the company
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