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A Post-Cold War Cash of Civilizations?

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A Post-Cold War Cash of Civilizations? A Post-Cold War Clash of Civilizations? A New Approach to Testing Huntington’s Thesis Bård Ludvig Thorheim Master Thesis, Department of Political Science, University of Oslo October, 2002 Acknowledgements I have had the benefit of much support and assistance throughout writing this thesis. The people who have spent most time hearing about this thesis and assisting me with it, are probably my fiancée Inger Karin Fuglesteg, and thereafter Svein Olav Krøgli, who has provided invaluable assistance operating GIS software. Without their support I would definitely not have accomplished this work within the prescribed time of one year. A great share of this accomplishment is, no doubt, due to my tutors, Bjørn Erik Rasch at the University of Oslo and Tanja Ellingsen at the Norwegian University of Science and Technology (NTNU), who have provided excellent guidance through every step of the process. Not only have Tanja and Bjørn expertly guided me through this field of research, they have also been available for me at all times. The same goes for my tutors and good colleagues at PRIO, Scott Gates, Nils Petter Gleditsch and Håvard Strand. In addition, I have profited much from the scholarly environment at PRIO through my residence with a student scholarship at this excellent research institute. The Department of Political Science, University of Oslo, has provided extra funding for generating data. Fredrik Skribeland has proofread the thesis and provided valuable comments. I would also like to thank David W. Throup at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, with whom I had many enlightening discussions on the topic during our time as election observers in Sierra Leone. Bård Ludvig Thorheim 1 Table of Contents Acknowledgements.................................................................................................................................1 Table of Contents....................................................................................................................................2 1 Introduction...................................................................................................................................3 1.1 Background ...........................................................................................................................3 1.2 Overall Objective and Research Questions ...........................................................................4 1.3 Theory ...................................................................................................................................5 1.4 Definitions.............................................................................................................................6 1.5 Research Design and Methodology.......................................................................................7 2 Theoretical Framework..............................................................................................................10 2.1 The theory of Civilizations..................................................................................................11 2.2 Huntington’s Thesis in a Theoretical Context .....................................................................19 2.3 Attempts to Test Huntington’s Thesis Empirically .............................................................24 2.4 Hypotheses ..........................................................................................................................28 3 Method and Data.........................................................................................................................33 3.1 The PRIO/Uppsala Dataset..................................................................................................36 3.2 Geographical Data...............................................................................................................38 3.3 Combining the Data in GIS – how the “Civilizational Variable” is Generated...................42 3.4 Reliability ............................................................................................................................48 3.5 Validity................................................................................................................................50 4 Analysis........................................................................................................................................55 4.1 The Significance of Civilizational Borders to the Pattern of Conflict.................................55 4.2 Is the Civilizational Theory more Applicable to the Post-Cold War Era?...........................62 4.3 Fault Line Wars – Bloodier and over Territory? .................................................................64 4.4 Is the Civilizational Theory only Significant for Civil Wars?.............................................67 4.5 Civilizations and their Clashes ............................................................................................68 5 A Qualitative Approach..............................................................................................................77 5.1 The Top Ten Civilizational Conflicts..................................................................................78 5.2 Introduction to Studying Bosnia..........................................................................................84 5.3 Bosnia – A Civilizational Conflict ......................................................................................88 5.4 “The Puppet Masters” – the Instrumentalist Approach .......................................................90 5.5 Constructivists – and the Relevance of Other Variables .....................................................93 5.6 Triggers, Targets, Channels and Catalysts – Sorting the Causes of Armed Conflict ..........98 5.7 An Attempt to Answer the Initial Questions .....................................................................100 6 Conclusion .................................................................................................................................102 6.1 Findings.............................................................................................................................103 6.2 Suggestions for Further Research......................................................................................105 Bibliography........................................................................................................................................108 Appendixes..........................................................................................................................................114 Maps and Tables Map 1…………………………………………………………………………………………………...13 Map 2…………………………………………………………………………………………………...45 Map 3…………………………………………………………………………………………………...56 Map 4………………………………………………………………………………………………..….79 Table 1…………………………………………………………………………………………………..57 Table 2…………………………………………………………………………………………………..62 Table 3…………………………………………………………………………………………………..63 Table 4…………………………………………………………………………………………………..66 Table 5…………………………………………………………………………………………………..69 Table 6…………………………………………………………………………………………………..70 Table 7…………………………………………………………………………………………………103 2 1 Introduction 1.1 Background A major area of interest after the Cold War, among academics as well as world leaders, has been to reveal new sources of armed conflict. What will be the causes of war in the post-Cold War era? The “grand theories” of international relations have been applied also in this field, although the debate has been more focused on the extent of war in the new era rather than on specific causes. While liberal institutionalism claims that armed conflict can be avoided the next decade with a “continuous pattern of cooperation” (Keohane 1993), realists like John Mearsheimer, claim that there is no promise of more stability going from a bi-polar world to a multi-polar world (Mearsheimer 1995). Some empirical research has been conducted in order to detect changes when proceeding to a new era. For instance, Oneal & Russet (1999: 36) conclude: “The post-Cold War era is full of affirmations about the importance of democracy, freedom, and prosperity built on interdependent markets.” And further: “Analytically, we are progressing towards a synthesis of Kantian and realist influences and of dyadic and systemic perspectives” (Oneal & Russett 1999: 36). Fukuyama (1992) has perhaps the most commonly known contribution claiming that the end of the Cold War marks the “The End of History”. The traditional lines, and eventually all lines of conflict, will disappear, according to Fukuyama, as the nation-states acknowledge the “universal principles” of democracy and liberal markets. It will be the end of all international wars, except minor conflicts between the states that are still “in history”, and the ones that have reached the “end of history”. On this background, Samuel P. Huntington created great controversy with his article “The Clash of Civilizations?” in 1993 and the follow-up book 3 The Clash of Civilizations and the Remaking of World Order in 1996. Instead of harmony in “the new era”, Huntington focuses on emerging conflicts based on cultural dissimilarities. He makes precise predictions about causes of conflict and wars after the fall of the Iron Curtain: “It is my hypothesis that the fundamental source of conflict in this new world will not be primarily ideological or primarily economic. The great divisions among humankind and the dominating source of conflict will be cultural.” (Huntington
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