mp lord willetts on the importance of on the future of tax credits Centre vocational and welfare reform Write

The future of work

professor david blanchflower | mp | matthew taylor | james graham

Editorial

Contents Contributors

4 Editor’s letter a new welfare settlement is a former Richard Mabey Conservative PPC 24 The Human Welfare Economy kate andrews is Research Fellow 5 Director’s note Matthew Taylor at the Adam Smith Institute Ryan Shorthouse 25 Tories and Tax Credits diane banks is a Non-Executive Director of Bright Blue the economy of the future The Rt Hon Lord (David) Willetts david blanchflower is 6 Is the UK experiencing a “ 26 The future of the Living Professor of at miracle”? campaign Dartmouth Andrew Lilico and David Blanchflower Neil Jameson christopher brooks is Senior Policy Manager at Age UK 27 Is the Conservative Party now the 9 Rev the finance engine to avoid dave coplin is Chief Envisioning an economic stall workers’ party? Office of Microsoft UK David Skelton John Longworth benedict dellot is Senior 10 The problem with productivity a more diverse workforce Researcher at the RSA Dave Coplin james dobson is a Researcher at 28 Narrowing the Bright Blue 11 The role of finance in the economy of Philip Salter carole easton is Chief the future 29 Pride and prejudice in an ageing Executive of the Young Women’s Bim Afolami workforce Trust the jobs of the future Christopher Brooks james graham is an award winning playwright 12 Giving the respect 30 The wasted talent of female NEETs will humphreys is a DPhil it deserves Carole Easton candidate at University The Rt Hon Sajid Javid MP 31 Deregulation holds the key to nick hurd is MP for Ruislip, Northwood & Pinner 13 Who would want to be self- affordable childcare Kate Andrews neil jameson is Founding employed? Director of Citizens UK Benedict Dellot books & arts the rt hon sajid javid mp is 14 Letter from America: A future like Secretary of State for Business, 32 Reporting: the past Innovation & Skills Adventures of a Young War Margaret Levi alexander king is an Associate Correspondent (Simon Read) of Bright Blue 15 The Great Fragmentation: challenges Keith Tomlinson david kirkby is Senior Research for the on-demand economy 33 The Rise of the Robots: Technology Fellow at Bright Blue Wingham Rowan and the Threat of Mass margaret levi is Professor 16 The future of trade unions (Mark Ford) of Political Science at Stanford Frances O’Grady Will Humphreys andrew lilico is Chairman of Europe Economics from bright blue 35 Thatcher’s Trial: Six Months john longworth is Director that Defined a Leader (Kwasi 17 Bright Blue research update General of the British Chambers Kwarteng) of Commerce David Kirkby Diane Banks richard babey is the Editor 18 The Centre Write interview: 36 Arts interview: James Graham of Centre Write The Rt Hon Priti Patel MP frances o’grady is General 37 Dynasty: The Rise and Fall Secretary of the TUC 20 Why I’m a Bright Blue MP of the House of Caesar (Tom Holland) the rt hon priti patel mp Nick Hurd MP Basil Vincent is Minister for 21 Going part-time: Bright Blue’s recent wingham rowan is Director report of the Beyond Jobs project James Dobson philip salter is Director of the Entrepreneurs Network ryan shorthouse is Director of Bright Blue Bright Blue Director: Ryan Shorthouse david skelton is Director Bright Blue is an independent think tank and Chair: Matthew d’Ancona Board of Directors: Rachel Johnson, of Renewal pressure group for liberal . Alexandra Jezeph, Diane Banks & Phil Clarke matthew taylor is Chief Executive of the RSA Editor: Richard Mabey keith tomlinson is an economic Assistant Editors: Corinna Peachey, Meera Sonecha and investment researcher & Alexander King (Arts) basil vincent is a Teach First www.brightblue.org.uk graduate the rt hon lord willetts is Printers: PPC, www.ppcbristol.co.uk Executive Chair of the Resolution Designers: Soapbox, www.soapbox.co.uk Foundation Editor’s letter Why we should be cautiously optimistic richard mabey is the about the future of work Editor of Centre Write

I recently received an email from the General Manager of Dr Andrew Lilico (page 6) and former Monetary Policy Uber, . With a subject line that read “Help save the Committee member Professor David Blanchflower (page 6) Uber you know and love”, it was pretty clear from the outset debate the macro side of the UK “jobs miracle”, while on what it would be about. the micro side Microsoft executive Dave Coplin (page 10) For some time, the heavily-regulated drivers of London’s discusses the future of workplace productivity. black cabs had been lobbying Transport for London (TFL) On the jobs of the future, Business Secretary The Rt Hon to limit the exponential growth of Uber and its unlicensed Sajid Javid MP (page 12) highlights the importance of voca- minicab service. Among their concerns, the $50bn company’s tional education in equipping our workforce with the skills contribution to congestion, doubts over its drivers’ employ- of the future. In our Letter from America, we hear from ment status and its modest contribution to UK tax receipts. Stanford Professor Margaret Levi (page 14) on familiar US The black cab drivers were furious. experiences of recent creation. Benedict Dellot (page 13) And sure enough, the email was a counterstrike from Uber. discusses barriers to self-employment and we hear from It hit back at proposals from TFL, which aimed to impose a TUC General Secretary Frances O’Grady (page 16) on the mandatory five-minute waiting time, force drivers to work future of the trade union movement. with only one operator and take out that bit of magic that lets On a new welfare settlement, RSA Chief Executive you see on your screen all the Uber cars around you. Luddite Matthew Taylor (page 24) suggests design principles for nonsense, they alleged, which would make life worse for both a ‘human welfare economy’. David Skelton (page 27), customers and drivers. Director of Renewal, casts a political eye on the idea of the Wherever you come out on the point, there is no denying Conservatives being the ‘workers’ party, while The Rt Hon that technology is having a profound impact on the nature Lord (David) Willetts (page 25) dissects the thorny issue of of work. And it’s not just taxi drivers who are threatened. tax credits. Professionals too are starting to experience the impact of On a more diverse workforce, Philip Salter (page 28), disruptive business models on their long-established indus- Director of the Entrepreneurs’ Network, proposes a novel tries. The level of self-employed workers is higher than at approach to narrowing the gender pay gap. Kate Andrews any point over the last 40 years, our workplaces are more (page 31) of the Adam Smith Institute shares her take diverse than ever before and thousands of companies across on the elusive policy prize of affordable childcare, while the country, from Aviva to Lidl, are offering their employees Christopher Brooks (page 29) of Age UK looks to the other the . end of the spectrum to show the economic and social benefits Technology has been a significant enabler of this change, but of working in later life. policy has played its part too. Government has both reacted to Finally, I put some of the questions raised across these four the new landscape and proactively encouraged (or mandated) policy areas to Employment Minister The Rt Hon Priti Patel change. Take the Chancellor’s Budget announcement to raise MP (page 18) when I interviewed her on her approaches to the ; take recent legislation (originally proposed future-proofing UK employment policy. by Bright Blue) to extend shared to grandpar- The changing nature of work will be one of the defining ents; take the Government’s commitment to reducing NEETs policy challenges of our age. Government should choose to by 15% over the next 10 years. This, against a backdrop of a embrace the extraordinary opportunity for economic and growing economy and record employment levels. social progress it affords, while making sure that no one is left In this edition of Centre Write, we look at four key aspects behind. If it does so successfully, and executes on the policy to the future of work: the new economy, the jobs of the future, directions to which it has committed itself, we can be cau- a new welfare settlement and a more diverse workforce. tiously optimistic about a brighter future for work; a future in On the new economy, John Longworth (page 9), Director which everyone can benefit. General of the British Chambers of Commerce, highlights the I hope you enjoy reading this edition of Centre Write as importance of small business lending to power future growth. much as we have enjoyed making it.

4 | Centre Write But the naysayers are adamant that critical role in topping up the incomes Director’s note work needs to be cut. They argue for of those working day in and day out maximum working times in a week and to support their families. They did not Ryan Shorthouse the redistribution of working hours. deserve the scale of the cuts to their tax Last year, the President of the UK credits which the Chancellor originally Faculty of Public Health, one of Britain’s proposed, hence why Bright Blue ryan shorthouse is the top doctors, called for a switch to a campaigned against those proposals Director of Bright Blue four-day working week. So did The New since they were first announced. Economics Foundation, the year before. Government policy can help Ghastily illiberal and totally those in working poverty in another Work, in general, is a good thing. unnecessary. Employment fundamental way: by setting a Honestly. It provides income, purpose opportunities are likely to be reduced sensible national minimum wage. and new relationships. It might be for those with no or few working hours For years now, Bright Blue has been maddening at times, insecure for if those working long hours are no campaigning for the UK’s wage floor too many, but it is far better than longer allowed to do so. The truth is to rise significantly but sensibly. The unemployment. So it is welcome that that work need not be, and increasingly Chancellor’s new National Living Wage employment in the UK, especially is not, antithetical to family life, leisure will be quite a significant jump upwards youth and female employment, is at or happiness. in the minimum wage. The OBR has record levels. That is because when and where forecast job losses as a result of it. But Having a job is good for our people work has become increasingly job supply is affected by a wide arrange pockets and our minds. Much of the flexible. Parental leave and pay, as of factors, including the performance of gain in household living standards well as childcare support, is now more the economy and the tax and regulatory during the latter part of the twentieth generous. The rise in self-employment, environment. Bright Blue believes this century, for example, was a result of a structural trend to our labour market new National Living Wage is a risk the increase in two-earner households. since the 1980s, is largely a positive worth taking; let’s see how employers Since work is the engine of national trend: of individuals seeking more respond. In fact, Bright Blue has paid prosperity and facilitates greater social control over their lives. Actually, a small role in all of this by becoming integration, it is little wonder that this there has been a big rise among young an accredited ‘Living Wage Employer’ Conservative Government has made people in the numbers freelancing in October 2015. We hope more ‘’ one of their key and launching their own businesses, organisations will follow suit. aims. often indicative of a desire – especially Ultimately, to help people climb Still there are some who argue that among those with higher educational out of low pay, we need to focus increased work is problematic. They qualifications – for work to be more on improving their skills. It is vital, say it disrupts family life. But Professor than just about making money, but to especially in a flexible labour market, Jonathan Gershuny’s ‘Time Use’ derive great enjoyment from too. For that people have the opportunity surveys – which have tracked the daily their work to be the end-goal of a good to upskill and reskill throughout activities of 66,000 people for decades life, not just the means to it. their lives. As you will read in – shows that although both men and Today’s policymakers should not be this magazine, Bright Blue’s latest women in the mid-2000s were working finding ways to reduce the importance report detailed why there has been longer hours than in the mid-1970s, of work in our lives. Rather, the focus a worrying decline in the number they were also spending more time should be on ensuring a much broader of workers undertaking part-time caring for their children. group of people really can benefit from higher education in recent years. Then they say it increases stress our modern and flexible labour market. We proposed two new policies – a and misery. There are, admittedly, Big challenges remain. lifetime HE tuition fee loan account some studies which suggests Low pay is at the top of the list. The and a ‘graduate levy’ on large graduate in some industries is associated with proportion of the British workforce in employers – to provide more financial poorer health outcomes. But, overall, low paying jobs is much greater than in support to those looking to better their despite the fact that more of us are other comparable countries. So much so circumstances so they can progress in working, and a higher proportion of that a majority of households under the the labour market. Britons are working very long hours current poverty line – specifically, living Work is not the enemy. But compared to in other OECD countries, in a household which is 60% or below there’s still a long way to go to levels of unhappiness in Britain have the median income – have now at least ensure that, for more people, it is not risen in recent decades. one adult working. Tax credits play a a friend.

Winter 2015 | 5 THE ECONOMY OF THE FUTURE LETTER EXCHANGE

professor david blanchflower is Bruce V. Rauner ‘78 Professor of Is the UK experiencing Economics at and a former external member of a “jobs miracle”? the Monetary Policy Committee dr andrew lilico is the Chairman of Europe Economics Andrew Lilico and David Blanchflower discuss and a member of the Institute for Economic Affairs’ Shadow Monetary Policy Committee

Dear David, is up: the proportion of workers who say From Q2 1979 to Q1 1981, quarterly real GDP fell in the they have a temporary job and want a permanent job is up by UK by 5.5%. Unemployment rose rapidly, from 1.4m in Q2 210,000. Fifty-five percent of the jobs created since 2008 are part- 1979 to 2.4m by the end of the , then continued rising time. And 15% of part-time workers now say they are part-time through to its peak of 3.3m in 1984 – 12% of the workforce. is because they could not find a full-time job, compared with 10% Unemployment stayed above 3m for 51 straight months. pre-recession. There has also been a sharp rise in the self-em- This is the pattern economists expect in a serious recession. ployment rate which is up 700,000, but more self-employment Unemployment rises, then stays persistently high, falling back doesn’t seem to be better. A typical self-employed person is paid only well into the recovery. It has also been the experience less than a typical employee. The incomes of the self-employed of much of the developed world since the are down 22% since the start of the recession. The self-employed of 2008/09. So, for example, whereas US unemployment was are especially likely now to say they are underemployed. below 5% in 2007, it rose to about 10% in 2010, falling back Seventy-nine percent of the employment increase is among only gradually over several years thereafter. Similarly, in Spain the non-UK born. The increase in the numbers of workers from unemployment rose from 8.4% in 2007 to 27% in 2013. the A10 Accession countries alone is nearly twice as large as The UK’s experience with unemployment during the the increase from those who are UK-born. It looks more like a Great Recession has, however, been very different – indeed, labour market disaster to me than a miracle. almost unique, internationally. Despite our contraction in Regards, GDP being worse (at least initially) than that in either the US David Blanchflower or Spain, unemployment here rose much less — from around 5% in 2008 to 8% in 2009, where it stayed steady until 2012 before falling back to 5% again now. Whereas in past severe UK labour market flexibility was much greater , UK unemployment rose rapidly and stubbornly refused to fall, this time it rose only modestly and then fell than in the past and much greater than in other back as soon as steady growth returned. developed economies affected by the Great This was not expected by economists — neither by you nor me. Would you not agree that one might reasonably Recession characterise this as a “jobs miracle”? Regards, Dear David, Andrew Lilico So far we’ve both quoted lots of statistics, and doubtless we or others might quibble over them. But isn’t the key lesson from your data that the fall in unemployment was the product of Dear Andrew, labour market flexibility and of job creation? You are right that the rise in the unemployment rate in the UK Whereas in previous recessions almost everyone initially in the Great Recession was less than everyone expected, in- employed either remained in full-time work or become cluding me. This time around, unemployment rose to a peak of unemployed and the real incomes of those remaining in work 8.5% in 2011, which was less than in the where it rose whilst others experienced unemployment, in our modern reached 10% in 2009. But real in the UK have declined labour market there is more of a continuum. Some people ini- and are still 4% lower than at the start of the recession, whereas tially employed accepted wage cuts; others had less overtime; in the US they increased. In the UK, wages, rather than unem- others worked part-time; others became self-employed; yet ployment, took the strain. others took on zero hours contracts.

6 | Centre Write LETTER EXCHANGE THE ECONOMY OF THE FUTURE LETTER EXCHANGE

At the same time the labour market also absorbed addi- successful in lowering the living standards of the hard-working tional workers from abroad, re-absorbed a number of the man on the Bradford omnibus. longer-term unemployed, through measures such as the Work Regards, Programme, and even coped with significant public sector David Blanchflower job cuts. UK labour market flexibility was much greater than in the past and much greater than in other developed economies Dear David, affected by the Great Recession. Fears that the Thatcherite Since productivity is simply the ratio of output to employ- labour market reforms had been undermined by New Labour ment, saying that productivity growth has been poor recently proved unfounded, and those that doubted public spending is just another way of saying that employment has grown more could be cut without unemployment or doubted the efficacy of rapidly than expected, relative to output. Poor productivity the Coalition’s own labour market measures were proved wrong. growth is a form of the jobs miracle, not a refutation of it. You might justly point out that labour market flexibility has My understanding is that the jobs created since 2010, at downsides as well as upsides, but you surely should not deny least, have been overwhelmingly full-time employed jobs that in its own terms of trying to make the UK’s labour market – not self-employment or part-time work. Furthermore, in one in which unemployment did not rise rapidly and in which total post-tax income terms, my understanding is that those unemployment would fall without inflation, the reforms of the employed on low incomes have had amongst the fastest past 30 years have proved stunningly effective. post-tax income rises. Overall income inequality (including Regards, benefits, tax etc as well as wages) has been steady in the UK Andrew Lilico for about two decades, apart from a modest fall recently. It is simply incorrect to characterise the situation in the UK as one in which jobs growth has come at the expense of jobs being of My understanding is that the jobs created since poor quality or failing to be associated with income growth. A job gives people a stake in society, self-respect, a reason 2010 have been, at least, overwhelmingly full- to get up in the morning, and the opportunity to learn and time employed jobs – not self-employment or progress on the job. Those in continuous full-time employ- ment have had much more rapid wage rises in recent years part-time work than the average worker overall. Across Europe, many societies have been blighted by high Dear Andrew, unemployment and its social consequences — as indeed the I do agree that the UK labour market has been remarkably UK was in the 1970s and 80s — not only in economic and flexible downwards but as you say that has downsides as well as personal social terms but also in the poisoning of their political upsides. Wages have fallen more than ever in recorded debates and in deep tensions (even violence) between com- and that is supposed to be a reason to celebrate? Those at the munities. Through some ill-understood combination of wise, top end, especially in London, have done well but those at the long-standing policy decisions, more recent policy decisions bottom haven’t and we know that relative things matter. The that worked out okay and a fair dollop of luck, the UK econ- jobs that have been created are not good jobs and they aren’t omy this time has been a jobs engine, keeping unemployment well paid. Labour productivity levels remain about 15% below low. I believe we should count our job market blessings. an extrapolation of pre-downturn trends. Output per hour is Regards, 20% below the average for the rest of the G7 major advanced Andrew Lilico countries and a third lower than that of France. Some miracle. The scale of the shock was immense, which meant that the Bank of had to inject unprecedented levels of monetary Wages have fallen more than ever in recent stimulus that I voted for, which still remain in place. This has been the slowest recovery in a century, measured by the time it history and that is supposed to be a reason took to restore output to starting levels. There is even historical to celebrate? evidence to suggest it is the slowest since the South Sea Bubble. It took the UK 66 months to restore lost output compared with under 48 for every recovery in the last 100 years. Dear Andrew, The shock was insulated by the drop in mortgage interest Glad to see you concur that the jobs that have been created payments but the impact is going to be devastating when are disproportionately low paid, temporary, part-time and rates rise. The labour market reforms have been stunningly self-employed. There has also been a rise of nearly half a mil-

Winter 2015 | 7 THE ECONOMY OF THE FUTURE LETTER EXCHANGE

lion in the employment of those over 65 who were unable to done well, but we know from behavioural economics that retire due to the deterioration in the size of their relative things matter. savings. Since May 2010, around 42% of the jobs that were I do agree with you that unemployment hurts. My own created were either self-employed or part-time employees. research has examined the impact of a one percentage point These are not good jobs so creating them clearly does not con- rise in unemployment versus a similar increase in inflation stitute a miracle. on well-being across European countries. I find that unem- Of particular concern is that the young have been hit by ployment hurts five times more than an equivalent rise in a double whammy. They can’t find jobs but when they do they inflation. But poverty in work creates unhappiness too. are low paid, temporary and have fewer hours than they would There is no sign that the UK has rebalanced away like. This hardly looks like a miracle. It is surprising that the from financial services and construction, and it is even more young have been so compliant given that their relative position exposed to a shock today than it was in 2008 versus the old, as a direct result of government policy to buy when interest rates could be cut by a lot. One of the main votes, has deteriorated sharply. This surely will not continue reasons the UK has performed better than most other EU for ever. Unemployment when you are young creates perma- countries is that it has its own central bank and currency. So nent scars. much of the credit for the relatively low levels of unemploy- Average Weekly Earnings shows that real total pay includ- ment should go to and who kept the ing bonuses is down 9.5% since its peak in February 2008. It is UK out of the Euro. But now we are in deflation with a new down 2.5% since May 2010 despite its recent rise, principally round of totally unnecessary austerity about to hit. This baby due to the UK moving to deflation. There is little or no sign of isn’t over. any wage pickup. Wage settlements have remained unchanged Regards, during 2015 at 2%. Those in continuous employment have David Blanchflower

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8 | Centre Write LETTER EXCHANGE THE ECONOMY OF THE FUTURE

Rev the finance engine to avoid an economic stall John Longworth discusses how government can show commitment to access to finance

Many banks have highlighted a drop revolution in its approach to exporting. john longworth is Director General of the British in demand for capital from businesses. Businesses need greater financial Chambers of Commerce At first this seems surprising. However, support to help them overcome the the difficult trading conditions and additional costs associated with entering uncertain outlook during the recession new export markets. The UK’s post-recession recovery will have made many firms more As with infrastructure investment, has been impressive, and despite the cautious about taking on additional making more finance available to slowdown in Q3 2015 GDP per capita financial risks. Those companies that support exporters should be viewed remains just above its pre-crisis peak. have grown throughout and after the by government as an investment in This is credit to the hard work and recession are less likely to have gone the future growth of the UK econ- resilience of British businesses who through the process of applying for omy. The welcome return of UK Export drove the recovery, and who have also finance for their growth plans, and may Finance to the Small and Medium ensured that over the past two years be unaware of their own readiness for Enterprise (SME) market is an encour- UK GDP grew faster than any other G7 such lending. aging step in the right direction, and economy. A major casualty of the recession means companies trading internationally One of the lasting effects of the was the relationship between businesses can access finance options similar to recession, however, has been a further and banks. The fear that approaching those of their competitors abroad. reduction in access to capital from their financial institutions for support More needs to be done to encourage UK lenders, particularly non-equity would result in an unwanted review lenders to improve access to export finance. Major UK banks came close of their banking facilities has led many finance, and schemes like the Business to collapse and required significant businesses to become ‘non-seekers’ of Banking Insight (BBI) project can taxpayer support. Inevitably, many finance. This trust will take many years help to encourage greater competition became even more hesitant than normal to build back up again. within the banking sector. The BBI is an to lend – particularly to relatively new This is often compounded by comparison website backed and fast-growing businesses and those now entrenched and justifiable view that and delivered by the BCC and the who had run down working capital banks will simply not lend to firms or Federation of Small Businesses. It allows during the recession. Of course, this sectors that are viewed as higher risk. In companies to check how their peers have is a category that UK commercial fact, it is probably unreasonable, even in rated bank services – and make decisions banks have historically always normal times, to expect that commercial accordingly. We’re doing our bit to boost found too risky. banks should take on board such risk. competition through transparency, with It is now more important than ever This is the job of equity investors and, support from the big high street lenders. for the long term health of our economy crucially, banks underwritten by the We also need to see greater that access to finance is improved, to state as we see in other nations like choice in the financial marketplace enable businesses to move from survival Germany, Canada and the US. to improve competition and mode to full-on growth mode. We need There is a big role for government choice for businesses. Unfor- to take rapid action to capitalise fully to play in improving access to capital. tunately, challenger banks have on our early recovery if we are to stay Some encouraging work has already been flattened by the Chancellor’s ahead of other nations – and that means begun, such as the establishment of the decision to impose an additional that business needs access to working British Business Bank (BBB) by the levy on Corporation Tax, while and patient investment capital to help Coalition Government. What the BBB regulators have made market entry expand and invest in future growth. now needs and deserves is both political unnecessarily complicated for them. Unfortunately, after several major support and the resources needed to It will take time and effort initiatives designed to encourage banks play a much bigger role, more akin to its to make finance work for busi- to start lending to UK businesses, international counterparts, in addition nesses. It is important that there such as the Enterprise Finance to being able to forge a more direct is dialogue between businesses, Guarantee, Credit Easing and Funding relationship with businesses. government, and lenders to ensure that for Lending schemes, things are far from In order to continue to drive the changes that are made are the ones back-to-normal. economic growth, the UK needs to see a that are most needed.

Winter 2015 | 9 THE ECCOLINMOATMYE OCHF ATNGEHE FUTURE

The problem with productivity Dave Coplin explains how we must work smarter to address the productivity crisis

dave coplin is the Chief Envisioning Officer of Microsoft UK

The UK economy faces a massive problem, one that extends beyond the recession and transcends governments and political parties. It is the problem of productivity. It may sound counter-intuitive, after all, isn’t productivity supposed to be the solution not the problem? The truth in itself the product of work. However, sufficiently differently to see the is, right now there is a productivity this particular technology has enslaved potential to change the way we live crisis that has the UK (and many other us all and is fast reaching breaking and work, so that we make the most economies) in its grasp. But why is this point where neither the machines, nor of both the human and technological the case? Especially when many feel the humans using them, can cope with opportunity that our future holds. they are working harder and have less the deluge that overwhelms us every Instead of focusing on processes free time than ever before. single day. of work like hours spent, emails Much of our understanding and Now I get the irony of this, here I answered or forms filled, we need to approach to productivity comes from am a fully paid up a representative of reconnect our people with outcomes: the end of the 19th century from the technology industry telling you the products, services and subsequent the work of a handful of people like that there’s a problem with technology. value created for customers. This means Frederick Winslow Taylor and Frank But before you dismiss the argument, moving away from a world fixated and Lillian Gilbreth, who were amongst I need you to consider this: most by Taylor’s legacy of efficiency and the first people in our industrialised of the problems we face today with instead focus more on ‘effectiveness’, society to take a keen interest in the our relationship with technology empowering people to achieve more science of work. exist not because of failures with the both inside and outside of work by Taylor in particular, valued technology itself but because we are ensuring that the result of all their efficiency. He believed that if he could using new technologies to work in old efforts is meaningful. make the workers more efficient, fashioned ways. Providing technology that empowers both the organisation and the workers Today, most of us still work like people to achieve more has been at the would benefit. But perhaps the most Victorians, only we use 21st century heart of Microsoft’s mission for over significant remnant of his legacy is tools to make that work slightly better 40 years. But as the world has changed not so much about the science of or quicker. Our 20th century approach so have we. We know it is no longer management but instead that we are left to work and life is fast approaching a enough to use technology to help in a world that seems to value process point where it can no longer support expedite traditional ways of working; over outcomes. the pressures of, or more importantly instead we need to rise up and embrace A recent study by Microsoft rise to the opportunities afforded by, a new wave of technologies that provided stark evidence of how bad the 21st century. If we continue on our fundamentally change our opportunity. the problem actually is. In a poll of a current path, without fundamentally In order to achieve this, we need to representative sample of the UK work- changing our definition of productivity remember that technology is here to force, 77% of respondents declared or changing our working habits, the help and that the success of our future that clearing their email inbox was a ability to ‘work smarter’ is simply will depend entirely on our ability to “productive day at work”. If you’re untenable, leaving only the prospect of grasp the potential it offers us. As a struggling with why this might be a working harder in order to survive. result, our aspiration should be to do problem, let me just remind you that But this cannot be our future. things differently, not the same things email is just a process of work; it is not Instead, our challenge is to think slightly better.

10 | Centre Write THE ECONOMY OF THE FUTURE

The role of finance in the economy of the future Bim Afolami on the changing nature of finance in the digital economy

bim afolami works for a large alternative ownership models so investing in start-ups and later-stage international bank and was the that more people can own a home of businesses, which allows users Conservative Party PPC for Lewisham Deptford at the last their own. Why shouldn’t banks give to invest as little as £10 into the General Election people the opportunity to buy 50% businesses they choose and lets early- (rather than 100%) of a new home (50% stage start-ups and more established What did the financial crisis owned by the individual, 50% owned businesses raise investment from demonstrate about modern, big and by the bank), which could really help friends, family, customers, ‘angels’ globalised finance? Although we first time buyers? Governments (local and other independent investors in appreciate that the answer as to who and central) have certain versions of exchange for equity in the business. ‘caused’ the financial crisis is complex, this – why not banks? It grows at 15% per month, and has the crisis has shown that much recent One principal way in which SMEs funded 110 deals in 2014 alone. financial innovation has failed to create (and especially newer SMEs) are It is plausible that larger businesses (or even enhance) enough economic currently poorly served is that they might start using similar methods to value in the real economy. In the don’t have enough access to capital. raise finance from both the UK and future, the key question is: how should The model used by banks works very abroad. This will not only reduce finance help serve the new economy well if you are an established business. the long term income of banks from and correspondingly re-legitimise its They work adequately if you are a new businesses, but it will further divorce place in our market economy? business entering a market that is well banks from the very people that they Most fundamentally, finance needs established and clearly understood are meant to serve. to remember that it needs to be part by the bank’s managers. However, of society, not apart from it. Financial if you are a dynamic small business, Banks are being increasingly firms must adapt their models to better perhaps internet based or reliant on serve both (i) the new workforce, technology, banks rarely deal with you cut out of the growing new which is much more likely to be because you don’t fit their traditional markets for finance, and self-employed and (ii) new business, models. This can be changed. Banks alternative financial providers which is likely to be tech–based, more can be more flexible and set up teams mobile, and much smaller. who understand the new growing are going to fill the gaps One in seven of the British businesses that are providing so much in provision workforce is self-employed, and 40% growth in the modern economy, and of new jobs over the past four years also attracting many of our most gifted came from self-employment. For young people. Banks also need to allow their very young people, these figures are even Why can’t banks ignore these capable people to think innovatively higher. Well over 50% of new jobs trends and go on as before? Banks about how to serve the new British are created by Small and Medium are being increasingly cut out of the workforce and keep connected to the Enterprises (SMEs). If banks are to do growing new markets for finance, revolution in British business, and a better job of being part of society, and alternative financial providers not just leave new business entirely to and not apart from it, they need to be are going to fill the gaps in provision. these new platforms. serving this SME community much Technology has fundamentally Where government regulation does more effectively. If they do not, the changed the business model of most not allow them to do either they vacuum will be filled by alternative industries – finance is not immune. should call out and apply pressure financial providers. The rise of cheap physical computing to have regulations changed – if they The modern world presents many power and communications has can show that their innovation will problems. Alas, not all of them can be allowed peer-to-peer lending to emerge benefit the real economy. Otherwise, solved by finance! However, some can as a major source of finance for small they will slowly become unloved, be made just a bit easier. For example, start-ups. decaying relics of our economic with rising house prices let’s see banks Take one example: Seedrs is an system, not part of society but think more creatively about offering equity crowdfunding platform for apart from it.

Winter 2015 | 11 THE JOBS OF THE FUTURE

Giving vocational education the respect it deserves Sajid Javid MP says that vocational education is the key to social mobility

the rt hon sajid javid mp is the Secretary of State for Business, Innovation & Skills

I grew up on Stapleton Road in , which a tabloid once dubbed “Britain’s most dangerous street” and “a moral cesspit”. Sure, it wasn’t exactly salubrious, but the people I knew around there weren’t bad, or lazy, or providing a real education; an excellent will make vocational education a more stupid. More often than not, they just way for young people to gain the skills attractive option for young people and lacked the opportunities that many take they need to compete and for employ- demonstrate the value of vocational for granted. ers to develop the leaders of tomorrow. education to employers. And when my school advisor Our best vocational education is Second, we’re abolishing employer said I should set my sights no higher world-class, but for the past 20 years contributions for than an entry-level job at Radio Rentals, employer investment in has apprentices under the age of 25, making he wasn’t doing so because he thought been in steady decline. This isn’t it easier for employers to take one on. I could learn a trade, get qualifications just bad news for the employees Third, we’re introducing an and work my way up the organisation. and companies, it’s bad news for the levy for large employers, He was just telling me what kids from economy – a fifth of the difference putting them in control by allowing Stapleton Road were expected to do. between Britain’s productivity and that them to fund the skills training their We didn’t go to university, we simply of the USA, France and Germany is workforce needs. left school at 16 and got ourselves a down to a lack of comparative skills. And finally, we’re leading by low-paid, low-skilled job. If we’re going to close that example. All public sector bodies will In 2015, I’m not prepared to tolerate productivity gap and secure lasting be expected to employ apprentices, just that attitude. Every young person has economic growth and prosperity, we as many Whitehall departments, the the potential to succeed, and, while have to make the most of everyone’s Department for Business, Innovation I’m not in the business of mandating talents – and a serious commitment to and Skills (BIS) included, already do. equal outcomes, I’m a fierce believer in vocational education is one of the ways Thirty years after I moved out, giving equal opportunities. Everyone in which we’re achieving that. Stapleton Road is still not the nicest should have the opportunity to show In the last Parliament we helped place in the world. But, like millions what they can do, and we need to create well over two million apprentice- of other young people on similar provide them with the education and ships. In this one, we’re going to create streets across the country, the kids training they need in order to fulfil their at least three million more, making growing up there today are no potential. an option that is open longer treated like a problem to be That training and education can to every employer. tackled or a liability to be managed. come in many forms, but for too long There are a number of ways in which They’re an incredible asset, filled a myopic focus on sending half of our we’re going to ensure we achieve this. with unlimited potential. young people to university has led to the First, we’re legislating to put appren- We owe it to them to unlock that alternatives being neglected and ignored. ticeships on the same level as degrees, potential and give them the Not anymore. This Government is and to give the term legal protection opportunity to fulfil it, and our plans giving vocational education the respect to ensure high standards. Apprentices for vocational education represent a it deserves. We see apprenticeships for deserve to know they’ll be getting huge step towards making that happen what they really are: not a second-best top-quality training, not simply being – something that will benefit the option, or a safety net for failures, used as a cheap way of filling vacancies. economy, the country and, above all, but real jobs, paying a real wage and By guaranteeing high standards, we young people themselves.

12 | Centre Write THE JOBS OF THE FUTURE

Who would want to be self-employed? Benedict Dellot on how government can help those who go it alone

But the ‘pushed-into-it’ thesis is market, overhaul the design and delivery benedict dellot is Senior only one part of the story – and a small of , and introduce Researcher at the Royal Society one at that. Polling by the RSA and equal treatment under the Work of Arts (RSA) Populus last year found that the vast Programme. Behind every proposal is majority of the newly self-employed a recognition that the self-employed Take the wages. People who strike (those who started since the economic have both rights and responsibilities, out on their own earn a third less than crash in 2008) did so in the pursuit which is why we also recommend someone in a typical job. They are also of greater autonomy and creativity at changing National Insurance levies to half as likely to contribute to a private work. Our research also showed that finance extra protection. This should , and considerably less likely to over 84% of self-employed people not be seen as unnecessary meddling engage in regular training. This is not to are more satisfied with their job than by an overreaching state, but rather as mention the myriad personal pressures: they would have been working for a strategic investment in the country’s isolation, a lack of affirmation and an somebody else. wealth creators. abiding sense of precariousness. So let’s be clear: this is a positive Why, then, do the ranks of the trend to be lauded not lamented. For the unions and other self-employed continue to grow? The question we must now ask is The number of people who work for what we can do to help this growing sceptics, the explanation is themselves has risen by 40% since 2000, band of self-starters to flourish, for simple: in the absence of good compared with a 10% increase in the their benefit and the wider economy. quality jobs, people are being conventional workforce. The result One option is to focus on familiar is that one in seven of the working policy levers. Reduce burdensome forced to create their own. population now answer to themselves taxes, boost access to finance and pare There is no doubt some truth – the highest figure on record. Should back unnecessary red tape. And true this trend continue, the RSA predicts to form, this is precisely what the in this assessment that the self-employed community present government has done. Thanks could soon outgrow the public sector to policies such as the one-in, two-out The alternative is to carry on as workforce. ruling on regulation, the UK now ranks usual. But we should know that doing 9th on the World Bank’s Ease of Doing so will deprive many people of the The question we must now ask Business Index. chance to enter the world of business. Such efforts should be applauded. Indeed, is already is what we can do to help this But take a step back and a common pat- the preserve of the privileged. Our growing band of self-starters to tern comes into view: nearly all focus on latest research finds that people who flourish, for their benefit and supporting the business rather than the have received a windfall of more than individual that sits behind the business. £10,000 are twice as likely to work for the wider economy By this I mean that policymakers have themselves, and that the self-employed tended to overlook personal issues such who own their home outright are 30% For the unions and other sceptics, as people’s access to mortgages, pension more likely than renters to last three the explanation is simple: in the absence provision, maternity pay and general years or more in business. of good quality jobs, people are being wellbeing. Little wonder that our poll Self-employment is not meant to be forced to create their own. There is no showed just 14% of the self-employed an easy-ride, of course. Not everyone is doubt some truth in this assessment; think the Government adequately cut out to work for themselves, and several studies have demonstrated a supports people like them. failure is an inevitable aspect of correlation between unemployment and So what needs to change? Among entrepreneurship. But too many people start-up rates. And it now appears that the RSA’s ideas are to extend automatic are struggling unnecessarily. Let’s hope some of those who started up in busi- pension enrolment to the self-employed, this Government can get to grips with ness during the recession are beginning establish a ‘right to request’ for more the real issues facing people who go to return to typical employment. flexible payment terms in the housing it alone.

Winter 2015 | 13 THE JOBS OF THE FUTURE

Letter from America: A future like the past Professor Margaret Levi on a familiar story of job creation

maraget levi is Director of workers as independent contractors or The latter tactic was always illegal and the Center for Advanced Study temporary employees hired through is not to be advocated, and the former in the Behavioral Sciences and an employment agency. The workers requires imaginative new strategies. Professor of Political Science at Stanford University thus have few rights; there are limits on Class actions and state legislation collective bargaining and even access redefining work and employers are “All along the shore, come in.” This to benefits provided to others doing sometimes successful. Transforming was the call to the men sleeping rough comparable jobs. And when jobs reduce on-site marketplaces into digital hiring on the beach and keen for work on the face-to-face interactions and interde- halls, where employers must come to docks. The films On the Waterfront and pendencies among the employees, trust find workers and where the workers Cinderella Man capture the indignity of and solidarity, the stuff of effective control the supply of labour, is another this employment process. organising, is harder to achieve. possibility. But how to do this in the This was the 1920s and 1930s, and The inability of workers to express world of the ‘gig economy’, where so those who later formed the longshore voice has significant consequences many are stitching together part-time unions began as casual labour, treated for our societies. Political parties and jobs, is not obvious. with indifference, disrespect, and elected officials are likely to be less and The capacity to strike peacefully greed by their temporary employers. less responsive to workers who neither declines in the US as one state after It is to that world we are returning. mobilise in labour organisations nor another adopts ‘Right to Work Laws’ Casual labour, part-time and seasonal vote. The effect, in numerous sectors, is – that is, laws that restrict the ability of employment, jobs without benefits or a decline in occupational safety, health unions to collect the dues that support rights – this appears to be the future of care benefits and social insurance, and their negotiation of contracts, their the post-industrial societies. an increase in inequality and insecure lobbying and their general organisational Those who held the old industrial employment. capacity. Such legislation has passed even jobs had a significant advantage over Employers now have more power in states once as progressive and union- contemporary workers. They had over their workforce. While some may friendly as Wisconsin and Michigan. factory floors, water coolers, hiring argue that this enables the companies to To regain voice, employees must halls, and other places to gather. be more efficient and wealth enhancing, find new bases for common identity But that kind of workspace is gone there is far more evidence that uncon- and action, and this requires fresh ideas, or transformed in the highly developed strained employer power leads to job leadership and strategies. Where those economies. Technological change and dissatisfaction, lowers productivity, and will come from remains unclear. the new industries tend to separate passes off to society the costs of care of How will the workers of the future rather than congregate workers. those who work multiple jobs or none join to express their economic and Workers once used those spaces to at all. political needs/demands? The first step is express class-consciousness; employees Some potential solutions exist. forging a collective identity, of recognis- now have little or no class identity. Unions, such as the Teamsters, ing a ‘community of fate’ in which their Today’s workers are an increasingly intimidated employers with a combina- futures are entwined and they are complex category. Some sit together tion of leapfrog tactics (refusing to drop motivated to act on each other’s behalf. in large spaces and gather regularly in off or load goods for those who refused Creating such a ‘community of fate’ the lunch and meeting rooms. Think to recognise their union) and thuggery. might be the hardest problem of all. Google or Uber. Some work in teams to create a product. Think Apple or Microsoft. But many have little or no actual contact with each other. Think Uber drivers or the ‘Turkers’ of Amazon who browse online to find work a computer still can’t do. Many of the new tech and transpor- tation companies define a lot of their

14 | Centre Write THE JOBS OF THE FUTURE

The Great Fragmentation: challenges for the on-demand economy Wingham Rowan asks if it is time for a full-spectrum employment policy

wingham rowan is Director of the Beyond Jobs project (www.BeyondJobs.com) which aims to unlock the potential of irregular work

We seem to be witnessing the start of a ‘Great Fragmentation’ in developed economies. Supply and demand across all sorts of sectors is breaking down into smaller units. Householders renting their sofas on occasional nights pushed AirBnB to the world’s fifth biggest hotelier six years after launch. Taskrabbit workers drop everything when booked for a half hour’s courier work that would previously have gone to a company rostering employees elsewhere when not required. This think tanks we are now engaged with for deliveries. Uber’s pool of ad hoc blind-spot in labour market support senior workforce figures in America’s minicab drivers had full time taxi is becoming indefensible. Ministers largest cities. drivers gridlocking European cities in can no longer shoehorn citizens into The mission requires an unusually protest last June. traditional structures and ignore the sophisticated technology platform that Forbes calculates this volatile local increasingly fragmented, personalised can seamlessly underpin all sorts of hire of people or their resources is work options. local ad-hoc transactions from cleaning, growing at 25% a year. Yet, around Many in the British Government through on-demand work in a café/ the world, governments are clamping understand this challenge. For years, shop/contact centre to domiciliary care. down under pressure from established disparate parts of Whitehall and local That has been built. Now comes the businesses. This fragmentation creates authorities have funded technology and hard part. Public bodies are the biggest economic opportunity for those at the expertise to create a 21st century model single buyer of on-demand labour bottom of the pyramid and can provide of irregular work. The aim is to create (directly or indirectly) as well as the more responsive services. Yet, it can be fragmented work that is empowering, primary regulator, owner of licensing a gateway into the informal economy of informed, safe, convenient, low-over- databases, and setter of welfare and illegal – untaxed, unregulated – transac- head and offers progression to ever tax codes. Yet their focus remains tions. For years, governments have been increasing opportunities and security. ‘job creation’. fighting the rise in illegal working while I oversaw those projects. We learned Our work suggests it’s time for struggling to protect existing jobs. a lot about how challenging it is to full-spectrum employment policy. Yes, Current policies do next to nothing get a new paradigm for hour-by-hour jobs are vital. But irregular opportuni- for someone needing a few hours work working off the ground in small ties also merit support. With a vacuum today, perhaps a few more tomorrow. scale pilots. It takes real heft and on these issues at national level, cities That person could be a carer, a parent commitment. That has been hard to are best placed to seize the initiative. with complex childcare issues or a find because the Universal Credit’s slow They can leverage budgets, relation- sufferer from an unpredictable medical progress is putting a brake on employ- ships and facilities to go beyond jobs condition. Increasingly, they are likely ment innovation. To get we into also supporting less stable workers. to be on zero hours contracts; expected have turned to US cities through the We welcome the chance to talk with to be available for a primary employer’s www.BeyondJobs.com website. With decision makers who want to get ahead fluctuating needs, scrabbling for hours support from some key Washington of ‘the Great Fragmentation’.

Winter 2015 | 15 THE JOBS OF THE FUTURE

The future of trade unions Frances O’Grady on the place of trade unions in the modern world

the high-productivity, high-wage econ- together to act in their common frances o’grady is omy on which working lives depend. interest, and negotiate for better the General Secretary of For unions, the future is organising training as well as pay, , family the TUC in new sectors, where short-term and friendly rights, safety at work, sickness flexible contracts are all too common. and holiday benefits. In my job, I am privileged to meet In some ways, these workers face That’s why we need to extend workers from all over the country. the same challenges as those workers collective bargaining to more sectors One of the workers whose story has who grew trade unionism during and more industries, so more workers stayed with me is Daisy, who worked industrialisation 150 years ago – low benefit from agreements. Social in a cinema in south London. Daisy pay, unpredictable hours and no movements like the Living Wage and her colleagues just weren’t paid control over their conditions of work. campaign prove that there is strong enough to live on – but by banding Organising in these workplaces public concern and an appetite for together as a union, they were able to is difficult – but some unions have government intervention to help get a 23% pay rise. shown the way, negotiating indus- bring more employers to the table. Daisy isn’t the media’s stereotype try-wide agreements that protect the New industry-wide agreements of a trade unionist. She’s young, on a most vulnerable. And where workers between employers and unions could flexible contract, and working in the find it hard to organise through fear of transform the working life chances of private sector. But her experience tells victimisation, customer campaigns to the so-called ‘’ at a stroke – us a lot about the role of unions – and shame poor employers can help stop and help reduce the in-work benefit bill our future. shoddy treatment. We’ve seen this into the bargain. And it would give all In 2015, unions are still about mak- recently with the fair tips campaign workers a chance to progress beyond the ing sure that workers have a voice and – pressure from customers changed legal floor of workplace rights to build some power where most of us spend restaurants’ unfair policies. the life they want for their families. most of our waking hours – in the And more than this, unions must help And that’s why we are so worried workplace. Coming together in a union shape the skills revolution – which is by the threat to the right to strike gives staff a way to speak collectively, to creating better jobs for some, but leaving in the Government’s Trade Union pool their individual power and bring too many behind. All over the UK, Bill. The democratic right to decide some balance to the employmen unions are working with employers to together to stop work, as a last But the world has changed. Workers boost workplace learning and deliver resort when an employer won’t change jobs, employers and even training opportunities to individual negotiate, is the ultimate source of careers far more frequently. Zero hours workers who otherwise would miss out. strength when workers are faced with contracts and the rise of self-employ- Each pound invested in union learning injustice. It is rightly used rarely in the ment are reinventing casualisation, generates a return of £9.15, shared UK – but further restrictions on this even as some welcome the freedom between the employer and the worker, right can only tip the balance of power of more flexible forms of work. in terms both of increased wages and even further against working people. People are living – and remaining in the increased productivity. Daisy would not have won her pay workforce – far longer. Technological rise without it. innovation is all-pervasive and changing Workers change jobs, In the union movement, our the nature of jobs. Society is becoming priority is building the kind of more atomised. employers and even careers high-wage, high-productivity economy And yet most people still want far more frequently that grows the cake, and delivers fair a decent job they can be proud of, shares. Our role – as the voice of enough money to live a decent life and working people in Britain – is vital in enough time to spend with their loved But the really big improvements that. And we’d far rather work with the ones. Modern, confident trade unions could come through extending Government to deliver that vision than not only meet those aspirations; they collective bargaining: using the power have to fight their threats to the right are also part of the answer to building that comes when workers decide to strike.

16 | Centre Write Bright Blue Politics

Bright Blue research update David Kirkby updates us on Bright Blue’s research programme

leavers – including those from the risen dramatically, accounting for over david kirkby is Bright Blue’s most disadvantaged backgrounds – are half of all job creation between 2008 Senior Research Fellow enrolling in full-time higher education. and 2014. But all is not rosy in the world of higher One in seven workers is now education. self-employed. At the same time, The register of bills before Parliament Since 2010–11, there has been a sharp however, earnings from self-employ- is a fascinating list, and underrated as decline in the number of part-time ment have fallen. It is imperative that bedtime reading for the politically- higher education entrants at both under- public policy be updated to reflect inclined. graduate and postgraduate level. This these changes and the Government There are currently over a hundred was the subject of our report Going part has recently commissioned a review bills before Parliament. They include time: understanding and reversing the to investigate the challenges faced by the Bread and Flour Regulations (Folic decline in part-time higher education. self-employed people. The challenges Acid) Bill, Compulsory Emergency The report identified the possible causes faced by those on low incomes should First Aid Education (State-funded of this worrying decline and the barriers be seen as especially pressing. Our Secondary Schools) Bill, Convicted that individuals considering part-time research Self-employment for those Prisoners Voting Bill and the Trade HE face. Two original policy reforms on low incomes will focus on this Union Bill. Some are potentially were proposed to mitigate the financial group, exploring their characteristics, momentous bills, contentious and much barriers many of those considering identifying the challenges which they scrutinised; others will slip through part-time HE face. If we can have more face and proposing policies to support more quietly. Either way, it feels like a upskillers and reskillers undertaking them better. busy time for policy-making! part-time HE, Britain has a better London is now the world’s most Over the past few months Bright chance of winning ‘the global race’. visited city, with strengths ranging from Blue has published research to inform Finally, one of the biggest concerns its flourishing 2012 Olympic legacy to public policy in a number of key areas. of policymakers in recent years has a globally leading Financial Services This Government has sought new been intergenerational inequity. Or, the industry. But what is the Future of ways to understand and tackle poverty. notion that lucky baby boomers are London? What will it look like in 2050? Our report Strengthening the social prospering while younger generations We are putting together a collection networks of different ethnic minorities are finding getting on in life much of essays on this subject collaboration explored the relationship between tougher. We published an essay with Localis. In this collection, we will poverty, ethnicity and social networks. collection entitled The generation game: bring together leading thinkers, decision There is evidence of a limited but spending priorities for an ageing society, makers and industry representatives significant relationship between less with the Fabian Society and CentreFo- to propose radical, original ideas for ethnically and socio-demographically rum. This collection explored spending London’s future. diverse social networks and poverty. priorities for an ageing population to Finally, we will be publishing an To help diversify the social networks find the fairest and most sustainable essay collection on Conservatism and of disadvantaged people from ethnic funding settlement. This collection human rights. In recent years, the debate minority backgrounds, four policy included contributions from across the about human rights has become divisive recommendations were offered to political spectrum: George Freeman MP, and political, largely driven by the boost their participation in crucial The Rt Hon Lord (David) Willetts, Dr rulings of distant judges in Strasbourg. local institutions: Sure Start Children’s John Pugh MP, Debbie Abrahams MP Against this contentious backdrop, fresh Centres, nurseries and primary schools. and many more. thinking on the role and value of human Britain’s economy continues to grow, In the coming months we will add rights, both in the UK and abroad, is but low productivity remains a pressing to our publications with a number of crucial. This collection will explore how challenge. projects currently underway. conservatives can think about human Increasing the skills of the British Britain’s labour market is changing rights in a positive way that draws on workforce is key. So it is welcome and self-employment is a big part of the conservative traditions of individual that a record number of school story. Since 2008, self-employment has freedom and empowerment.

Winter 2015 | 17 Bright Blue Politics THE CENTRE WRITE INTERVIEW

The Centre Write interview: The Rt Hon Priti Patel MP Richard Mabey spoke to spoke to the Employment Minister about the jobs of the future

Over the last five years or so, we have seen marked increases in a fantastic job, giving tailored support to people of all ages, the rate of employment. What do you see as the major causes ranging from skills training and work experience placements, of this shift? through to practical help for budding entrepreneurs. As Employment Minister, my focus is on helping people of all ages and from all backgrounds to be able to get on in work. How does the Government’s policy framework of taking the UK We recently marked a major milestone in our long-term from a high tax, high welfare, low wage economy to a low tax, economic plan – more than 31 million people are now in work, low welfare, high wage economy play out in your Department? the highest since records began, with a record employment rate With more than 700,000 vacancies at any one time in the econ- of 73.3%. The unemployment rate is at a seven-year low and omy we are making sure that anyone, whatever their back- wages are also rising, meaning people are not only working ground, can take advantage of the opportunities being created in record numbers, they are also seeing more money in their by our growing economy. pockets. And this can only be done by continuing to rebalance the I firmly believe that our network of Jobcentres has played a economy, which is why the Chancellor is introducing the major role in this employment revolution. We have more than National Living Wage and cutting taxes for the lowest paid, 700 Jobcentres across the country where our work coaches do and why my Department is continuing to reform welfare.

18 | Centre Write THE CENTRE WRITE INTERVIEW Bright Blue Politics THE CENTRE WRITE INTERVIEW

We are ensuring that people keep more of the money they We have seen thousands of mostly young people taking part earn, and that the welfare system is fair to the people who in our schemes, such as the Work Programme, sector-based pay for it as well as the people who rely on it. That includes work academies, and work experience, and finding work as a lowering the benefit cap to incentivise work and increasing our result. But we are not stopping there. support for young people through apprenticeships, training or Through our Youth Obligation we are ensuring young work experience placements, so choosing a life on benefits people are either earning or learning, focusing on their skills over employment is no longer an option. or careers so they can create real futures for themselves. We have pledged to create two million more jobs and three million Bright Blue was pleased to see the Chancellor adopt our more apprenticeships over the course of this Government policy recommendation of extending shared parental leave and our education and welfare reforms are supporting young to grandparents. Do you believe we are doing enough to give people into those opportunities. people security in their later years? We will be working across Government to ensure that No one should be written-off from contributing to the every young person is either in a job or training – so that a life workplace because of their age. People are living longer and on benefits is simply not an option. it is absolutely right that you are not consigned to a rocking chair and labelled ‘past it’ when you are in your 50s, 60s or Given the rise of entrepreneurship and the ‘freelance economy’, even 70s. how is the Government supporting the self-employed? Our Jobcentre Plus staff run projects around the country The best way to create jobs and raise living standards is to to support older people into employment. The fact that since support the private sector to flourish and we are backing 2011 Jobcentre Plus advisers have found work experience businesses to do that. placements for more than 30,000 over 50-year-olds, just shows Entrepreneurs are the backbone of this country and, as that you are never too old to learn something new and pursue Employment Minister, I want anyone with a credible idea, a new . whatever their background or where they from, to have the We are also working with employers to help them see the opportunity to become their own boss. That is why, through value and wealth of experience older workers have to offer. our New Enterprise Allowance we are supporting people on Those employers who discount someone on the grounds of benefits to set up in business and, hopefully, to become the their age are missing out on valuable skills that could be of employers of the future. huge benefit to their businesses. Specifically to support small businesses and charities to But we are not only helping older people to have fulfilling create jobs, we are raising the Employment Allowance by working lives, we are also ensuring people have secure retire- £1,000 to £3,000 by April 2016. ments. Saving for later life is crucial if people are to have the The scheme provides benefit claimants who have a dignity they deserve in their later years and we are supporting solid business idea with financial support and a mentor to people of all ages to do that by radically reforming the pen- get their ideas off the ground and so far has seen an average sions system. of 70 businesses started on every working day over the By the time Automatic Enrolment is fully rolled out, we last four years. Something this government is very proud of. estimate that 10 million workers will have been enrolled into a But we want to go even further and have launched a DWP- workplace pension. And the New State Pension that comes in led review, carried out by leading entrepreneur Michelle Mone, April 2016 will provide a clear foundation for people to save into how to support more people from disadvantaged areas to and those who have paid full National Insurance contributions set up their own businesses. will receive around £150 a week. As the nature of work changes, what do you see as the main You recently promised to cut the number of NEETs by 15% over challenges for Government in creating and maintaining jobs the next ten years. How will the Government help to build the growth? skill sets and know-how necessary to drive this change? Since 2010, our long-term economic plan has laid down the This one nation Government’s ambition is for our young peo- foundations for a stronger economy. We have achieved record ple to be at the forefront of the global race and we are doing employment, businesses are creating opportunities and total everything we can to support this pay growth is continuing to strengthen. The number of unemployed young people who are not But we are not complacent and our focus is now building a students is the lowest in a decade, at 6.2% of the total youth resilient economy and delivering economic security for every- population. While the employment rate of young people who one. We are doing that by growing the economy and creating a have left full-time education is at its highest level in more than low-welfare, low-tax and high-wage society with opportunity 10 years at 73.9%. and security for all at its heart.

Winter 2015 | 19 Bright Blue Politics

Why I’m a Bright Blue MP Nick Hurd MP on Bright Blue’s role in shaping forward-looking policy

nick hurd mp is the managing the day-to-day pressures power is shifting, and with it the map of Conservative MP for Ruislip of Government. I would argue that it competition and opportunity. Powerful Northwood and Pinner and a former Minister for Youth becomes even more important when demographic trends will change the our political opponents are in such picture of labour supply and demand. The Conservative Party needs to be disarray. It is up to us. Attitudes in society towards the constantly nudged out of its comfort Take the theme of this magazine world of work and wealth creation zone. In a changing world, future – the future of work. We are already may be changing, especially among the success as a political party depends on aware that our young are growing up young. For example, 1 in 4 start-ups in our ability to think deeply about the in a world much more complicated London is now a social enterprise. The big challenges of the era. That is why than even the recent past. Youth sharing economy is real and creating I think Bright Blue is so important as a unemployment is coming down jobs that were unimaginable ten years goad. Indeed more important than ever. but it is still too high. Many more ago. Crystal ball gazers, like Mckinsey, In his latest book, Charles Handy children attend good schools but far predict a dislocated future with too few writes about how the most successful too many are still leaving school with high skilled workers and too few jobs at organisations, like Apple, buck the qualifications that will not give them the lower skills end. These factors, and well-established trends of growth and choices. others, converge to present a very major decline by finding a ‘second curve’. The backdrop is a growing challenge for politicians, employers and This is a “change of direction towards recognition that the world of work is educators. the future”, best started before the end set to change significantly. We have So we need to ask ourselves very of the previous curve of growth. seen big growth in microbusinesses tough questions about how are we For a political party, I think it is and the self-employed. There is an doing as a country in terms of preparing about constantly fighting complacency increasingly noisy public commentary our young for the future world of to have thought leadership on the issues around disruptive technology, work. The Conservative Party in that will become increasingly important automation, robotics and implications government can point to undeniable to people. That is our challenge, for the workplace and the role of success in terms of impressive job especially demanding when we are people. The geography of economic creation; big improvements in schools and long overdue growth in apprenticeships. We can also take pride in groundbreaking innovations like the National Citizen Service, which is helping young people develop the so called life skills that employers increasingly value. However, we must recognize that we are still at the start of the journey to create a more secure future for Young Britain. The modern Conservative party should be looking to find the ‘second curve’ in pushing ourselves harder to anticipate the future world of work and the capabilities that young people will require. I back Bright Blue to be an important voice in that critical debate.

Nick Hurd MP is a Parliamentary supporter of Bright Blue

20 | Centre Write Bright Blue Politics

Going part-time: Bright Blue’s recent report James Dobson on the importance of part-time higher education

considerers cited such barriers while for the repayment of the lifetime loan james dobson is a 34% cited informational barriers. In account should be stricter (for example, Researcher at Bright Blue particular, the most common barrier was the minimum threshold for ‘not being able to afford it’. In order to repayment) for every new qualification An increasing proportion of workers address these financial barriers, Bright obtained, or when the student is older. are having both longer careers and Blue has developed two original and changing careers. To survive in Britain’s innovative policies. Between 2010–11 and 2013–14, flexible labour market, individuals need Our first proposal is that all eligible to be able to ‘upskill’ and ‘reskill’. As adults should be able to access a lifetime the number of UK and other the former Director of Strategy for the HE tuition fee loan account from EU part-time undergraduate PM, , wrote in his recent government to pay for the tuition of entrants fell by 46% book: “The idea that we get trained any HE course – full-time or part-time for our careers in our late teens and – throughout their lives. Under new early twenties and then are done is Government plans, some part-time It is important that this new preposterously antiquated. We have to students can access government back repayment model is also progressive. normalise readjustment and reinvention tuition loans for some undergraduate Sufficient subsidies should remain in throughout life”. degrees, postgraduate degrees and the loans scheme to ensure low lifetime Part-time higher education (HE) is PhDs. This results in an elitist system earners pay less than high lifetime invaluable for this. This is reflected in that favours only the most academically earners. One way of achieving this is the older age of the average part-time excellent students. Conversely, our our second policy recommendation: HE student. The evidence suggest that proposed lifetime loan account that large graduate employers should part-time HE yields significant benefits will be much more progressive by contribute to the subsidy on our to participating individuals, including a allowing individuals to use it to pay the loans through the payment of a new salary premium. tuition fees for any type of HE course, ‘graduate levy’. However, there has been a worrying including for an equivalent or lower We do not specify the level of this decline in part-time HE. Between qualification, modular courses and levy, nor the size of qualifying employ- 2010–11 and 2013–14, the number of UK when they are aged 30 or over. ers. As with the ‘apprenticeship levy’, and other EU part-time undergraduate The amount in the lifetime loan we believe that the Government should entrants fell by 46%. Taught postgradu- account would be determined by consult on this. ate entrants fell by 28% during the same government. The Government’s new This graduate levy will prevent some period. To boost social mobility and postgraduate loans will result in a employers from gaining a ‘free-ride’ by Britain’s productivity, this decline has to student who undertakes full-time recruiting employees who were funded be understood and reversed. This was undergraduate, postgraduate and PhD by their previous employer to do a the subject of Bright Blue’s latest report. study potentially receiving £44,000 in part-time HE course. It ensures that all There seems to be significant latent tuition fee loans. However, the loan large graduate employers contribute to demand for studying part-time HE. account should be set at a low enough the cost of a system of which they are Our polling found that 37% of English level to cause price competition and major beneficiaries. There should, of adults with no experience of part-time downward pressure on undergraduate course, be a reduction in the amount HE had considered but ultimately not tuition fees in England. some large graduate employers pay if pursued it in the past five years. The We believe it essential, especially they are already funding some of their report then went on to unearth the considering the current fiscal climate, employees to undertake part-time study. barriers these ‘considerers’ face. that our lifetime loan allowance requires If Britain’s workers and economy are We found that, overall, some sort of no greater government subsidy than is to prosper in the future, then govern- financial barrier was the most frequently the case under the current student loans ment must make it easier for individuals cited reason for not pursuing an interest scheme. We suggest several measures to reskill and upskill through part-time in part-time HE. Fifty-four percent of to achieve this. Chiefly, the parameters HE study.

Winter 2015 | 21 BRIGHT BLUE POLITICS

OUR PARLIAMENTARY SUPPORTERS

Lucy Allan MP George Freeman MP Charlotte Leslie MP Stuart Andrew MP MP MP MP Nick Gibb MP The Rt Hon MP The Rt Hon Lord Greg Barker MP Jonathan Lord MP Gavin Barwell MP The Rt Hon MP The Rt Hon Lord Lucas Henry Bellingham MP Richard Graham MP Karen Lumley MP MP The Rt Hon MP The Rt Hon Lord MP MP Paul Maynard MP Nicholas Boles MP Sam Gyimah MP Jason McCartney MP Graham Brady MP MP Stephen McPartland MP Steve Brine MP Stephen Hammond MP Stephen Metcalfe MP MP The Rt Hon Matthew Hancock MP The Rt Hon MP The Rt Hon Alistair Burt MP Richard Harrington MP The Rt Hon MP Neil Carmichael MP MP The Rt Hon MP MP George Hollingbery MP Sarah Newton MP Damian Collins MP Kevin Hollinrake MP John Penrose MP Oliver Colvile MP Kris Hopkins MP MP Lord Andrew Cooper John Howell MP MP The Rt Hon MP Ben Howlett MP MP Glyn Davies MP MP John Stevenson MP Jane Ellison MP Nick Hurd MP MP MP Margot James MP Dr Charles Tannock MEP MP Stewart Jackson MP Anne-Marie Trevelyan MP MP Syed Kamall MEP Lord Christopher Tugendhat Suella Fernandes MP MP MP Mark Field MP Dr. Phillip Lee MP The Rt Hon Baroness Warsi Lord Jeremy Lefroy MP The Rt Hon Lord

If you sit in the House of Commons, the or the European Parliament and would like to become a supporter, please email [email protected] Our Parliamentary Supporters endorse Bright Blue and its aim of strengthening and advancing liberal conservatism. They do not necessarily agree with all the policies and opinions we advocate.

22 | Centre Write All I wanted was a living wage. I had no choice but to go on strike.

The government is threatening the right to strike. Find out more at tuc.org.uk/right

Daisy, cinema worker A NEW WELPFOARSTE-16 SETTLEMENT

The human welfare economy Matthew Taylor proposes design principles for marrying human and economic welfare

reputation. While disagreement on key grounded in a commitment to autonomy matthew taylor is the Chief Executive of the Royal Society policy questions suggests it is unlikely and dignity, and has been advanced by of the Arts (RSA) that such a question will result in a diverse range of thinkers, including widespread agreement, it is important as John Stuart Mill, and The UK economy is performing well a starting point for judging the degree . in conventional terms, outperforming to which our actions are depleting or 5. Fostering democratic and many rival economies. Whilst this enhancing our asset base. participative dimensions within success is welcome, deep-seated 3. Effective and strategic use of existing economic institutions. characteristics of our economy, such as key policy instruments. One might Enabling public participation can entrenched inequality, low productivity, think of tax here; as well as being mobilise collective intelligence, foster and unsustainable levels of consumption very complicated, our current regime responsibility and trust; crucially it remain. Our economic debates continue isn’t grounded in a set of consistent can give policy makers the space to act to be narrow and technocratic, detached principles or ultimate goals. This for the long term. In the workplace, from broader considerations of human design principle would demand that an this might demand structures which welfare. This gap between top line economy oriented to long-term human provide greater voice and autonomy success and underlying problems flourishing would tax things likely to to employees; more broadly, it might highlights two aspects of misalignment: detract from that goal (profiteering, mean public deliberation on the aims of on the one hand, between economic or intergenerational inequality) industrial strategy. After all, as Mariana progress and human welfare, on the while incentivising behaviour likely Mazzucato has shown, public funding other, between short-term growth and to contribute (employment, socially and policy have lain behind much long term economic resilience. useful innovation and enterprise). One commercial innovation. I propose five design principles to policy that might seem attractive as a To take these ideas further, the RSA help us work towards a more resilient way of achieving these explicit aims is has proposed that a Citizens’ Economic human welfare economy. By going a land value tax, which would act as a Council, made up of around 30 back to first principles, a number of barrier to inherited wealth, incentivise representative people, might explore the policies currently deemed too radical for productive use of land, and would be deeper strengths and weaknesses of our consideration might emerge as worthy of difficult to avoid. economy, develop core design principles serious consideration. 4. Empowering individuals as for a resilient human welfare economy, 1. Clarity of mission. In order to economic actors. Even within the sphere and asses a set of ideas which might help establish how well our economy is of consumer choice – where the criteria to create that economy by 2030. performing, we must identify the goals for conventional economic success As the economy moves out of crisis of economic progress. The RSA’s ‘Power is most compelling – concentrations and as living standards finally start rising, to Create’ worldview provides one of economic power curtail individual we need to reopen the substantive debate answer: substantive individual autonomy enterprise and collective choice. about the relationship between growth and an understanding of human Thus, there is a strong case for a more and human flourishing started by leaders wellbeing. A focus on enabling people to robust competition regime. Beyond ranging from and live what Robert Unger calls “the larger consumption, it is in the sphere of wider Nicolas Sarkozy but cut short by the life” moves us beyond the restricted human development, particularly in credit crunch. Liberal is the prevailing understandings of wellbeing. relation to people with lower incomes, best system ever developed for solving 2. Efficient and sustainable use that the failure to enhance economic human problems, but through debate, of assets. This initially involves an agency is more glaring. We might, for engagement and policy innovation we identification of what constitutes an example, favour a citizens’ basic income, need to channel that creative force economic asset: everything from natural which provides all citizens with a modest toward what must surely be the ultimate resources and people to institutions and annual living allowance. This proposal is goal of politics – a larger life for all.

24 | Centre Write A NEW WELFARE SETTLEMENT

Tories and tax credits The Rt Hon Lord Willetts on tax credits and the future of in-work benefits

Indeed took the bold some dismiss tax credits as a form of the rt hon lord (david) willetts is Executive Chair move to set a new, higher national ‘corporate welfare’. But there is no of the Resolution Foundation living wage which we at The Resolution evidence to support this assertion. Foundation warmly welcome. Recent Resolution Foundation research The Chancellor did the right thing in But even this does not fully into the possible wage effects of in-work deciding not to pursue his cuts to tax resolve the problem which exercised support found no evidence of lower credits. The scale of the proposed losses us back in the 1980s. We may feel an earnings growth among those most for low income working families was obligation to help someone whose likely to receive tax credits. just too much for them. That was the wage is the lifeline keeping a family The economists will argue that pragmatic political argument and it was afloat but there are other workers in the macro-economic impact does not very persuasive. very different circumstances – from depend on employers having such But it leaves open another and deeper pensioners working to get out of specific knowledge – it shows up in question. What do Conservatives think the house to students boosting their an aggregate effect on wage pressure of tax credits in principle? Do they fit maintenance grants and loans. The case in the job market. But one of the main in to our picture of the world even if for tax credits alongside labour market macro-impacts of tax credits has been not on the scale to which Brown grew regulation is that there comes a point strong employment growth, particularly them? I went through this fundamental when it is better to help that worker among single parents. issue with in the with young kids via a top-up to their Above all we should look to see mid eighties when I helped to persuade earnings than by regulating everyone’s which countries have earnings top- her of the case for the family credit, the wages to the same high level. ups – the leaders are the US and the simpler and more modest precursor of UK. Earning top-ups are part of the what became tax credits. How we saw Critics of in-work support deal when you have a particularly open the issue then, offers insight into how we diverse labour market employing people consider the future of in-work support. must explain the labour with a range of needs and on a range of We were trying to liberalise the market effects of making terms. In that case, an earnings top-up is British job market. But some people employers foot the entire bill surely a price worth paying. were not commanding very high wages. Critics of in-work support must Indeed, as The Resolution Foundation for supporting the incomes of explain the labour market effects of has shown, in the mid-late 1980s low-paid working families making employers foot the entire bill around 1 in 5 workers were low paid (a for supporting the incomes of low-paid proportion that hasn’t changed much working families. in the last 30 years), and 1 in 20 were One way to design this top-up They should also recognise that – extremely low paid (earning less than payment – and the way we designed with employment now at an historic half the typical hourly wage). We might the Family Credit – is to reflect the high – worklessness is no longer the hope that over time better skills and design of the benefit system so the pressing labour market challenge it was greater demand for them would boost extra help that an unemployed family 20 years ago. their earnings but meanwhile one has to gets per child is reflected in in-work But working poverty is. And with deal with the world as it is. top-up payments per child too. This the majority of children in poor families One solution is to require also ensures you are always better off now living in working households, employers to pay more. That used to working rather than on benefits. a complete withdrawal of in-work be thought completely unacceptable However, the critics come back support would lead to rapidly rising and Conservatives campaigned against with the objection that employers are poverty – an outcome all of us should Labour’s minimum wage because we exploiting this system to get away with want to avoid. feared it would cost a million jobs. But paying lower wages than they otherwise We need a mixture of in-work that did not happen. Now a minimum would. This argument draws support benefits and a national living wage. wage is part of the British labour market. from both the left and the right – indeed They both have a job to do.

Winter 2015 | 25 A NEW WELFARE SETTLEMENT

The future of the Living Wage campaign Neil Jameson on the importance of pay reflecting the cost of living

decent wage and have access to secure paying sectors to move to a Living neil jameson is the Founding and meaningful work. Wage and maximise the benefits Director of Citizens UK The number of Living Wage by addressing wider issues such accredited employers has doubled to as insecurity, low skills and weak The Chancellor’s announcement more than 2,000 over the past year, productivity at work. in the Summer Budget that he will and earlier this month we celebrated introduce a higher minimum wage for their leadership in a national week of The number of Living Wage over 25 year olds was a milestone for action and events. They now include Citizen UK’s 15-year campaign for a more than a quarter of the FTSE-100, accredited employers has Living Wage and an important win for household names such as Unilever, doubled to more than 2,000 millions of low paid workers across ITV, Nationwide, Chelsea FC, KPMG, over the past year the country. Oxfam and the Houses of Parliament, The campaign for a Living Wage and small businesses across many began in 2001, when Citizens UK different sectors. The campaign has The future of the campaign will brought together communities in made strong in-roads into low paying also remain firmly rooted in Citizen East London to discuss what changes sectors such as cleaning and catering, UK’s mission to develop civil society’s would improve their lives. Parents and in recent months has seen a major capacity to take action on issues that spoke of the hardship they faced breakthrough into retail – with IKEA, matter to them. For many years, working for poverty wages, many Oliver Bonas and Lidl all announcing people living outside areas where of them working two jobs and still their decision to go beyond statutory Citizens UK is active have asked us struggling to make ends meet. At the requirements and commit to paying how they can take action on the Living time the National Minimum Wage was their employees and sub-contracted Wage. Earlier this month we launched just £3.70 an hour. staff a rate that meets their basic needs. a new Living Wage People’s Movement But with one in five employees on to harness that energy by supporting low pay, there is still more to do. The local campaign groups to raise The UK has one of the UK has one of the highest rates of low awareness and encourage employers highest rates of low pay pay in the developed world, and the in their towns and cities to pay the in the developed world Government’s proposed changes to recommended Living Wage rates. Our the welfare budget mean that living new interactive map of all accredited standards could continue to be an issue Living Wage Employers means that, Citizens UK is a coalition of in the years to come. for the first time, people can search for grassroots institutions who began to Our priorities are to drive more Living Wage employers or products ask employers who could afford to progress among the FTSE-100 and and services in their area. pay more to pay a wage that reflected in sectors hiring large numbers of The pressures disadvantaged the basic cost of living for all workers low paid people. The success of communities face have not gone away. over 18. The rate, set by independent the campaign has historically been As long as low pay and insecurity at calculation bodies each year, is rooted in the benefits of paying work exist, we will continue to push currently £8.25 an hour, and £9.40 an higher wages, including reductions in for a Living Wage that reflects the hour in London – significantly higher staff and improvements in basic cost of living, supports healthy than the current minimum wage, at staff performance. The Living Wage family life, and is the foundation of a £6.70, and the new over 25s rate, which Foundation – an initiative of Citizens modern workforce in the 21st century is due to kick in at £7.20 in April 2016. UK set up to promote, accredit and economy. The campaign has been at the support employers to pay a Living forefront of efforts to ensure that Wage – is currently working with Bright Blue was proud to become an the most socially and economically several major retailers to develop new accredited Living Wage employer in disadvantaged communities are paid a tools to support employers in low October 2015

26 | Centre Write A NEW WELFARE SETTLEMENT

Is the Conservative Party now the workers’ party? David Skelton on being on the side of working people

feel empowered and engaged in the is that which enables workers to spend david skelton is the future direction of the company. The more time with their families, to be Director of Renewal British workplace should be one treated fairly by their employers and to that boasts high skilled, empowered have a reasonable work-life balance. When we launched Renewal in the workers, with both government and Equally, Conservatives shouldn’t heatwave summer of 2013, our express employers investing to make sure sound unremittingly hostile to the goal was that the Conservative Party that workers are highly skilled in the role of trade unions in the workplace. should be seen as the ‘workers’ party’, skills needed in today’s workplace. As Nissan in Sunderland, the most unapologetically being on the side of The UK needs to be the world leader productive car plant in Europe, has working people. And with policy moves in engineering and technology, for shown, effective cooperation between like the Northern Powerhouse and the example, rather than continuing to trail unions and management means a National Living Wage, the Party is going many of our major competitors. workforce with higher morale and a a long way to make that a reality. The future British workplace should more productive workplace. Politicians Now, with Labour’s catastrophic be one defined by what Zenyep Ton should be talking more about how doubling down into the obsessions of of MIT described as the “Good Jobs” unions can play a more constructive Islington and its election of Jeremy strategy. Firms should realise that role in the workplace, ensuring that Corbyn, Conservatives can take this pruning margins and cutting costs workers feel more engaged in how their opportunity to win over what were isn’t a sustainable route to success in companies are run. Such a shift would once loyal Labour voters. Put simply, an economy where the highly skilled also help trade unions become more rel- the votes of the patriotic working class, companies and countries will prosper. evant in the private sector, where they now disengaged from Labour, but still Instead, the most successful companies have become an endangered species. sceptical about some of the market will be those who invest in training The future workplace presents fun- liberal elements of Conservatism, are their staff and boosting their skills and damental challenges and opportunities up for grabs and whichever party can regard a well-paid workforce as a more for politicians and political parties. The show itself to be genuinely on the productive one that will be loyal to the most successful will be those who are side of working people can reap a rich company and its goals. seen as pro-business, pro-worker and dividend. If the Conservatives can do A successful political party in this pro-opportunity, combining economic this, then they can win a far bigger new environment will also be one that competence with a compassionate belief majority at the next election. is comfortable with the language of in social justice. Conservatives should A political party that shows it is on social justice and compassion – driven take advantage of the gap opened by the side of workers will need to show by a moral imperative that no the Corbyn fiasco to park themselves how they can ensure that the next individual and no part of the economy squarely in this space, showing that generation workplace is one in which should be left behind. The ‘Northern they can be the party of the factory workers feel engaged and empowered. Powerhouse’ should be expanded worker just as much as they can be the An economy that is still too dominated to help revive those towns and party of the small business owner. by low pay and low skilled jobs should villages that have been struggling since Conservatives should remember that become an economy that is dominated deindustrialisation in the 1970s, ‘80s there is no inevitability that Labour will by high paid and high skilled jobs. and ‘90s. And both government and perpetually lack economic credibility Equally, an economy where too many employers should ensure that people and be led with somebody who is workers see their pay cheque disap- don’t become stuck in low-paid work universally regarded as unsuitable to pearing in rent needs to be an economy for a prolonged period of time. lead the country. Tories should use the where more people are on the housing Conservatives should think twice next few years to show that they can be ladder, rather than being stuck in poor before endlessly complaining about the party fundamentally on the side of quality private rented accommodation. ‘regulation’ in the workplace. Of workers in the new workplace, just as The most successful workplaces in course, some regulation is excessive, but Labour reheat outmoded platitudes the future will be those where workers some of the ‘regulation’ that is attacked from a bygone age.

Winter 2015 | 27 A MORE DIVERSE WORKFORCE

Narrowing the gender pay gap Philip Salter highlights the nuances of the equal pay debate

research, Petter Lundborg and others or penalise men for having stronger philip salter is Director of found that having children impacts preferences to work longer hours. The Entrepreneurs Network women’s prospect in the workplace Even though it doesn’t look as negatively, significantly and for a long though there’s an easy policy lever to In these enlightened days, nobody apart time. balance things out, technology and new from the most contrarian of internet And as Ben Southwood of the Adam working practices look to offer those trolls, is in favour of discrimination. Smith Institute explains: “Women are women that want to get back on the So how do we explain the gender wage on a steady upward trajectory, likely in same pay trend as men after leaving the gap – the much-discussed gap between line with comparable men (as seen in workforce to have and raise children, what men and women earn? Do we live previous studies). They then decide to as well as satisfy the desire for working in a world of hypocrites? Or are people take time out to have and raise children, fewer hours at less overall cost. in positions of power discriminating and never make it back to their against women without knowing it? previous trend-line, perhaps moving to If we really want to narrow the Perhaps the best place to start in more flexible work or less demanding unpacking the gender wage gap debate jobs. Even those who go back to similar gender pay gap, we shouldn’t is to acknowledge that pay can be careers are far behind in experience and look to government for quick measured in different ways. have to catch up with movements they fixes but for businesses to step By some measures, for example, have missed.” men are paid less than women. Last Assuming policymakers are not into the twenty-first century year, the Office for National Statistics going to interfere any further with opened up a can of worms when it women’s preferences for taking time In A Grand Gender Convergence: revealed “women working for more out of the workforce to have and care Its Last Chapter, Claudia Goldin than 30 hours a week were actually paid for their children, the question should argues that the US gender pay gap 1.1% more than men in the 22 to 29 age be: what, if anything, can we do to exists because hours of work in many bracket and, for the first time were also help get women’s pay back on trend? occupations (such as law, finance and paid more in the 30 to 39 age bracket.” Although policies like shared management) are worth more when However, women on average earn less parental leave probably help at the given at particular moments and in weekly wages and there are greater margins, not many fathers are taking when the hours are more continuous. and lesser disparities depending on the up the option. A more radical solution However, she demonstrates how industry. could be to offer a tax for women this has changed in some industries, Similarly, according to George-Levi returning to work to compensate them including biological sciences, Gayle and others, controlling for for the time they’ve taken out and the pharmacy, optometry, and veterinary executive rank and background, women cost it imposes on future earnings. medicine. earn higher compensation than men However, such a policy would also It might take time to trickle through and are promoted more quickly. But need to factor in other preferences all our corporate behemoths, but tech- this research also finds that women besides having children. As David nology and changing views of where, experience more income uncertainty, Lubinski says, men seem to prioritise when and how long people should work and acknowledges that fewer women higher pay, risk taking and merit-based offers the option for all women to earn than men become executive managers, compensation, whereas the top three the same as men per hour (even if men women earn less over their careers, things women valued more than men still choose to work more). hold more junior positions and exit the relate to working a shorter week. If we really want to narrow the occupation at a faster rate. These splits may or may not be gender pay gap in a way that accounts The decision to have and raise socially conditioned, but either way for women’s preferences, we shouldn’t children is probably the most signifi- once again I’m not sure policymakers look to government for quick fixes but cant factor in why women are paid less should be using carrots or sticks to for businesses to step into the twen- than men. In an interesting piece of goad women to be more like men ty-first century.

28 | Centre Write A MORE DIVERSE WORKFORCE

Pride and prejudice in an ageing workforce Christopher Brooks calls for sense and sensibility in helping older people work

christopher brooks is consider if they are to get the most out around ‘three Rs’ – Recruit, Retain Senior Policy Manager for of their 50+ employees. Here we put and Retrain. We fully support this Consumer and Community at AgeUK them into three broad groups. approach, as it is simple for employers First, psychological. This refers to understand and encapsulates the According to the latest Office for to the organisational culture and the major issues. Combined with the National Statistics figures, over 30% day-to-day working environment. ‘three Ps’ outlined above, employers of the UK workforce is aged 50 and Achieving an open, trusting relation- can create the processes for maximising above, and there are over 1.1 million ship between management and other the skills of older workers that we over 65 still in employment. As the employees, where people can speak believe will help them to succeed as State Pension age continues to rise, openly about their problems and ambi- demographics change. reaching 67 by 2028, more and more tions without fear of recrimination Flexible working underpins all people are likely to decide to keep is important. Crucially, this includes of this. Older workers like flexible working, meaning this number is only eradicating discrimination and the use working for a variety of reasons, going to increase. The need for govern- of stereotypes in decision-making at for example to meet their caring ment and employers to understand all levels – restoring the ‘pride’ and responsibilities or to manage a health what this means has never been greater. eliminating the ‘prejudice’. Ambitious, condition. Maximising the skills and yes, but something to strive towards Age UK has also analysed how experience of our ageing workforce is nonetheless. flexible working is used among older essential. An oft-quoted statistic from Second, practical. Linked to the workers. There are clear barriers the Department for Work and Pen- cultural aspects, this is how the emerging – genuine flexibility is sions is that halving the employment organisation develops and implements too often unavailable at point of gap between 50-to-64 year olds and HR policies, trains line-managers, uses (hence the 26-week people in their 40s in 2013 would have technology to aid workplace design, qualifying period for the ‘right to added 1% (£18bn) to nominal GDP – and aligns the skills and experience – as request’ should be abolished); rarely this is a clear statement of the gains for well as the aspirations – of its 50+ offered to lower skilled workers the UK, while for employers there are employees (and future employees) (indicating employers only use it potential benefits in recruitment, skills with its organisational objectives. when ‘easy’); and is still often used utilisation and productivity. Third, personal. At the employee as a tool for managing people rather There are some employers who level, this means ensuring that people than to facilitate improved work- clearly ‘get it’, and numbers in this have ‘good jobs’, which evidence life balance. Access to genuine, group are increasing. The impetus demonstrates is beneficial for health worker-friendly flexibility needs to given to the agenda by Ministers, flag- and wellbeing, as well as productivity. improve, and quickly, if fuller work- ship employers and other stakeholders Good jobs that allow people to take ing lives are to become a reality. That over the past few years has without responsibility, offer decent pay and is why we’ve suggested all jobs should doubt enabled significant progress. But improve their wellbeing help to be ‘flexible by default’ by 2020 – going we also need a wider debate about how facilitate longer working lives and beyond the right to request, where to make workplaces accessible – both enable employers to benefit from this the employee can assume they can physically and psychologically – for too. Without this ‘personal touch’ work flexibly unless the employer older workers. many workers, particularly those in can justify otherwise. Age UK has been doing much lower skilled roles, will have less desire It won’t be easy for employers and thinking about what might help to keep working and be regarded less the public to undo ingrained prejudice older workers stay in productive and favourably by their employer. about the perceptions of later working enjoyable work, as well as being able The Business Champion for life and retirement. But a lot more to fulfil their potential. Employers Older Workers, Baroness Altmann sensibility is essential if the UK is are of course crucial in this – there (now the Pensions Minister), framed going to thrive with an ageing are various factors that they need to the ‘Fuller Working Lives’ agenda workforce.

Winter 2015 | 29 A MORE DIVERSE WORKFORCE

The wasted talent of female NEETs Carole Easton on getting young women into work

carole easton is Chief Executive of the Young Women’s Trust

“I knew I was going to have to work my way up from the bottom, but I couldn’t even get a job at the bottom. I wasn’t expecting to have a dream job land in my lap but at the same time I wasn’t expecting to be turned away from places But yet again, for women, academic a landscape in which little has changed like McDonalds.” qualifications are not translating into in a generation and creative responses This was the experience of Emalene, higher . Young male graduates are needed to break into this vicious one of the young women interviewed earn more than young women, even circle. Women and Manual Trades in 2015 for the Young Women’s Trust when they study the same subject. reports that there are only 2% of inquiry Scarred for Life, which focused This difference is apparent in women “working on the tools” and this on the situation of young women who apprenticeships too. YWT’s poll figure has persisted for decades. are NEET (not in education, employ- commissioned from ComRes showed Valuable talents will go to waste ment or training). The title reflects how that female apprentices are paid on without urgent action. For example, serious the long-term consequences of average £2,000 a year less than their YWT is encouraging employers to youth worklessness can be. male counterparts if they are working improve the recruitment and retention Recent publicity has shown that full time. This is likely to be related to of young women in industries where it is white working class boys who the types of apprenticeships that young they are currently under-represented. are over-represented amongst those women undertake, for example social Our poll demonstrated too that there securing poor academic qualifications. care and health and beauty pay less than is an appetite amongst the public for This can easily lead to the assumption IT and engineering. greater enforcement of the National that it is these young men who are most This is the background to YWT’s Minimum Wage, with 81% of those aged likely to be NEET. But Department for annual report about young women and over 30 agreeing that employers should Education statistics show that many work, The Clock Turns Back for Young face tougher legal action for offering more women than men aged 18–24 are Women. It shows that young women remuneration below the minimum wage in this position, now 408,000 compared take a more gendered approach than (67% of those aged 30 and under). to 313,000, and that this discrepancy older women towards and Ninety five percent of NEET young has existed for over a decade. work and think that many traditional women polled by ComRes said they On average young women are NEET male roles are out of their reach. In want to work. But with limited choices for longer – three years compared to two relation to the roles of electrician, ICT available to them, young women are for young men – and the impact on their technician, construction worker, care being forced back into traditional roles futures is greater. They are more likely worker, nurse and plumber, women with few opportunities to enter and than both those who have not been over 30 were much more likely than progress in the job market. Despite NEET or men who have been NEET to younger women to say that the role was what they really want to do, staying at be unemployed in the future; they are suitable equally for men and women. home may be their only option and also likely to earn less (measured with There is a big chasm about to they know it. YWT is calling for reference to subjects aged 34). open up between the skills needed improved recruitment and employment The fact that more young women go in industries such as ICT and practices to attract and retain young to university and get degrees can lead, in construction and the number of young women in a broader range of employ- a similar way, to assumptions that it is people available to fill these increasing ment opportunities. We know this will young women who are earning more or numbers of vacancies. Young women benefit young women, their children who are more likely to be in secure jobs. seem to have responded to the reality of and the UK economy.

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Deregulation holds the key to affordable childcare Kate Andrews reports on the future of childcare

their children enter full-time education, intentions, it is government subsidies kate andrews is a diminishing their potential earnings that are perpetuating the distorted and Research Fellow at the Adam Smith Institute when they return to work. The gender expensive childcare market. pay gap – a hot topic of discussion in Even in the past year, the cost of the UK – is not a gap between men and putting a child under the age of two Starting next year, all working parents women per se, but rather a gap between into childcare part-time has risen by will be able to claim up to 30 hours mothers and non-mothers; the latter 5.1% – above the rate of inflation. worth of ‘free’ childcare. This is usually earning as much, if not more, Come 2016, the increased childcare estimated to affect 600,000 families to than their male colleagues while the benefits on offer will continue to the tune of roughly £5,000 per year. former sees a drop in their income. exacerbate the problem and drive prices However, despite the Government’s up even higher. generous giveaway packages, childcare No one disputes that The only way to tackle these costs remains one of the biggest expenses for is for the Government to cut off the UK households, akin to other topical childcare costs remain a vicious cycle of funding that keeps this necessities, like housing. burden to families. At every bloated industry afloat and take on To send a child under the age of income level, parents are expensive regulations that remain some two to nursery, just part-time, costs of the harshest in Europe. families an average of £6,000 per year; getting priced out of the kind Ofsted’s childcare regulations are for middle-income earners, coming up of childcare they want especially stringent, including strict with the additional funding is going mandatory child-to-staff ratios. In the to be a stretch, not to mention the UK, child to child-minder ratios are 1:3 burden those costs have on low-income Childcare payments have also been a for children aged 1 or younger, 1:4 for families, or single parents. driving factor in the tax credits debate. children aged 2–3, and 1:8 for children Now factor in full-time childcare While the government is right to make aged 3+. costs (roughly £11,000 a year, or a good on its mandate to reform the In contrast, countries like Denmark staggering £14,750 in London), or welfare system, many working families and Germany have no mandatory ratios the cost of having multiple kids in are dependent on tax credits to provide for children to child-minders (at any childcare; the costs become nearly daytime care for their kids. Though the age), yet manage to keep the quality of impossible to match, and families are threshold to receive child tax credits childcare at a safe and acceptable level. forced to make concessions. may seem relatively high – paid out This allows nurseries to keep staffing And those concessions have to couples earning collectively up to costs relatively low, which in turn results consequences. For one thing, some £41,000 a year – the cost of childcare in cheaper childcare costs for families. families find that the cost of childcare is is also so high that it can cut a couple’s Just like housing, the government too high to justify having both parents income down by thousands of pounds continues to throw money at problem- back at work. For many families, the a year. atic sectors instead of reforming the second income just manages to cover the No one disputes that childcare costs regulations that keep costs high. Not childcare payments. In some cases, child- remain a burden to families. At every only does this waste money, but it care costs actually exceed the net income income level, parents are getting priced reinforces the cost of living crisis that brought home by the second earner. out of the kind of childcare they want. keeps so many people, who could These high costs disproportionately The real debate is how to lower the cost otherwise be self sufficient, dependent affect women, as more than twice as of provisions while still maintaining on government benefits and handouts. many women, at 29%, than men (14%) high standards of care in the sector. It is within government’s power to have found that returning to work after But if the UK is to reform childcare deregulate childcare to the point of having a child isn’t financially worth- provisions to make them affordable affordability; but under current policies, while. Many women, who want to for families, political leaders will need 2016 will usher in even higher costs and work, are forced to stay at home until to swallow a tough pill: despite good even higher burdens.

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BOOKS & ARTS

Winston Churchill Reporting: Adventures of a Young War Correspondent By Simon Read

keith tomlinson is an a war correspondent were soon made expedition, but only as a correspondent economic and investment clear: “Churchill was biting into a from a reputable paper. researcher bony chicken when enemy fire battered As it happened, Churchill only Nearly half of RAF Bomber the clearing. One round, missing found the backing of such a paper well Command crews never returned from Churchill’s head by no more than a after departing on his trip to join Blood, their missions in the Second World foot, struck a nearby horse” (p. 34). where more than 200 of the 1,200 War, the highest casualty rate of any of Injury or death had seemed remote strong force were killed or wounded. the services. When I asked Simon Read until now. The mortally wounded horse Read’s description of Churchill’s how he came to write about Winston had to be put down. Read feels Cuba 1898 cavalry charge in the Sudan makes Churchill, he told me his grandfather proved definitive. the heart race. The Prime Minister, served in that war as a tail gunner. Churchill’s dispatches were well Lord , who enjoyed The His log book told a moving story of received, except by the Foreign Office, Story of the Malakand Field Force, courage, determination and survival where Churchill, a serving British helped to secure him a place with Lord against the odds. officer, minced no words in saying the Kitchener’s army which was about Churchill, who led Britain with Spanish would lose against the rebels. to re-conquer Khartoum. Kitchener such defiance in those years, had also Top brass read this with great interest did not want him there, but Churchill revealed great moral and physical cour- but it was awkward, given a family soon proved himself in a desperately age as a war correspondent between friend Sir Henry Drummond Wolff, bloody battle. “A trumpet sounded the 1895 and 1900. This he felt would be a British ambassador to Madrid, had order to gallop. The Lancers thundered great story. Indeed, it is. Simon Read’s arranged the posting. The experience forward, hooves beating the ground and Winston Churchill Reporting is an proved Churchill was a good journalist lances at the ready” (p. 115). So began absolutely rollicking adventure. and understood war. the last great charge of British cavalry, Driven by a desire to follow in his “Who could say if any of it meant Churchill a lieutenant attached to the father’s footsteps in politics, Winston anything?” (p. 87), wrote Churchill of 21st Lancers, pitted against a Dervish Churchill reasoned that performance in his 1897 experience as correspondent army of Islamic fundamentalists. battle would win him a name and thus attached to Sir Bindon Blood’s The 400 strong Lancers easily an entry into politics. Churchill’s family Malakand expedition on India’s broke through the first line of Dervish name and particularly his mother’s North-West frontier. Britain’s aim was riflemen, only to discover the terrifying influence were to provide the opportu- to create a buffer against the Russians sight of 3,000 more, which had been nity, combining his already well-honed but the fiercely independent Pashtun obscured by a depression in the ground. writing skills with military training as a tribes strongly resisted. The fighting The vastly outnumbered Lancers superlative war correspondent. was brutal but Churchill found war charged through the 12-deep Dervish Read first takes us to Cuba, where exciting: “It stripped away all pretense, line, and a brutal battle was underway. Spanish soldiers were putting down blew away the façade, and exposed a Churchill himself shot three an 1895 rebellion against colonial rule. man for who he really was” (p. 88). Dervish, and saw men on both sides He describes Churchill’s experience His book The Story of the Malakand horribly disfigured with injuries. The reporting this insurgency as a dress Field Force was dedicated to Sir Bindon action ended with the Lancers losing rehearsal for the assignments which Blood, who he had met the year before. 71 men and 119 horses, a signifi- followed. In Cuba, the dangers of being Blood allowed Churchill to join his cant part of the regiment. In one >>

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>> of his many close scrapes, Churchill of five successful books, Churchill Churchill was fearless. Whist playing, quickly put his horse into a gallop as was ready for politics. he once jumped from a bridge to a tree two Dervish opened fire from just Yet Churchill’s early life is a con- but, unfortunately, missed the tree and 20 yards away, astonished not to be hit tradiction. “He has no ambition”, said fell to the ground 29 feet below. He at the crack of the rifle fire. His next the headmaster of St George’s, his first spent three months recovering. And book The River War, a broad history school. At Harrow he “dazzled school though Churchill had little interest in of the Sudanese conflict, did not paint a officials with a blaze of complacency”. dead languages, he excelled at English favourable picture of Lord Kitchener. And finally, after three attempts at the and was a voracious reader of history. A prisoner of war in South , entrance exams, Churchill eventually He enjoyed the military, graduating Churchill was served coffee in bed entered the Royal Military College at with honours from Sandhurst. As each morning, along with the other Sandhurst, but with scores too low to be for how Churchill survived his many captive British officers. He was also considered for a future commission. All scrapes with death, Read suggests it is a able to continue writing his dispatches of which convinced his father, Randolph, combination of luck, skill and destiny. and even left a nice letter addressed that Winston was destined for failure. Simon Read’s fast paced book makes to the Boer Secretary of State on his I asked Simon Read how we should Winston Churchill’s story accessible to bed, following his escape. Churchill reconcile Churchill’s poor academic many new readers, who can simply wrote that he was a journalist not a performance with winning the Nobel enjoy the pure adventure. At another soldier but he had no complaints about Prize for Literature; faring poorly at level, the obvious parallels with today’s his treatment as a prisoner. The long Sandhurst’s entrance exams then leading conflicts, in these very same regions, journey back to British lines was not a cavalry charge; managing a death should cause us to think carefully about so civilised, spending several nights in a defying escape as a prisoner of war, what we expect to accomplish now, coal mine. Rats ran over him as he slept and consistently defying authority. He more than 100 years later. Winston and even ate his candle. replied simply that the young Churchill Churchill Reporting is an insightful Churchill was lucky to find a was an adrenalin junkie who gets bored look at what motivated one of the most sympathetic mine owner, given the £25 easily, “he did the things I would never prominent men of the 20th century, bounty on his head, dead or alive, and have the guts to do.” who went on to lead his country during even luckier to be there at all, given Read believes Churchill was driven its fight for survival. But most of all, Lord Kitchener was one of the generals by the desire to measure up to his Read nails it with a book that is just in charge. His new books From London father, Randolph, who was harshly such good fun. to Ladysmith and Ian Hamilton’s critical of his son. Randolph also March secured both his reputation and died young at 45, which left Winston Winston Churchill Reporting: Adventures of income. By age 25, a war correspondent convinced he would too. Read offers a Young War Correspondent, Simon Read; in three major campaigns and author other interesting insights. As a child Da Capo Press; 288pp; £17.79 The Rise of the Robots: Technology and the Threat of Mass Unemployment By Mark Ford

Will Humphries deciphers the relationship between technology and unemployment

will humphries is Armageddon, the future that the author fundamentally reshape the labour currently researching for predicts will be a far greater challenge market. his DPhil in Renaissance Literature at Oxford to policy-makers than any sci-fi film British readers will appreciate that could imagine. Dividing his analysis this new issue has been substantially Though the title of Mark Ford’s across ten chapters, Ford offers a rewritten to include economic data latest book, The Rise of the Robots, convincing vision of how advancing from the UK – grounding Ford’s conjures images of a Terminator-style robotics and artificial intelligence will predictions in localized examples

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and economic trends. The disturbing sector, in particular, has already faced no longer be a route to job security – conclusion is that the tendency for serious challenges from technology, something he backs up by noting the robotics to hollow-out sectors of the with online services vastly reducing the number of university graduates who are labour market will not only continue number of workers required to produce over-qualified for their current jobs. but accelerate as technology begins to the same output. The problem is that replace white-collar as well as the more there are, as yet, no obvious industries In the future it will not merely obvious manufacturing jobs. that will employ this glut of downsized In a series of graphs presented early labour – the farming, to manufacturing, be jobs that are “routine” that in the book, Ford challenges the notion to services trajectory seems to be at a are replaced by robots, but that productivity in the dead-end. those that are “predictable” (often heralded as the cause of slow or What is particularly alarming in stagnant growth) is in decline. Instead, Ford’s account is his prediction that as – if someone could learn how he offers a more profound insight, that technology becomes more ‘intelligent’ to do your job by studying since 1973 in the US and 1992 in the it will begin to challenge middle-class UK growth in labour productivity and jobs that were once thought safe from a record of everything that real, median salaries have decoupled. automation. As Ford notes, in the you’ve done, then chances While traditional economics has future it will not merely be jobs that are a robot may one day do it long believed in the the parallel growth are “routine” that are replaced by of these two figures (suggesting that robots, but those that are “predict- instead of you as labour became more productive it able” – if someone could learn how would demand proportionally high to do your job by studying a record The Rise of the Robots is best read wages), Ford demonstrates that, in of everything that you’ve done, then as a call-to-arms – and whilst it lacks the US particularly, compensation for chances are a robot may one day do it credible suggestions as to how our econ- production and nonsupervisory workers instead of you. omies will be able to restructure under has in real terms barely increased over It would be easy to get carried away advanced automation, it will certainly the last forty years despite productivity guessing at the potential technologies spark policy-makers into taking this more than doubling. This, he suggests, that could be just around the corner, issue seriously. We are beginning to is almost entirely down to the role of but instead Ford offers his readers discover, as Ford so succinctly puts it, technology. hard data that makes his short-term that “from the perspective of a great predictions not only compelling but many workers, computers will cease to What seems certain is that precise. Looking into the long-term, the be tools that enhance their productivity potential implications of mass unem- and instead become viable substitutes”. flexibility in the labour market ployment resulting from automation How we face this challenge is key to will be vital to ensuring high have highly disruptive effects when shaping the future prosperity of the UK. levels of employment demand for goods and services in the What seems certain is that flexibility economy simply dries up. Whilst there in the labour market will be vital to will always be an elite made wealthy ensuring high levels of employment. As automation has challenged through their ties to the capital of an Twentieth-century obstinacy in the labour-intensive industries such economy or personal innovation, how form of over-unionised labour will as farming and manufacturing, the many cars or haute-cuisine chefs does a accelerate rather than slow the rate of supply of available labour has vastly billionaire really need? automation, as firms simply mitigate outstripped the demand, forcing wage Unfortunately the weakest chapter their risk from strike action by replacing compression and off-shoring with the of Ford’s book is the one that deals man with machine. With the Labour result that western economies have with policy suggestions. His proposal Party slipping further into the past, it undergone a fundamental restructuring for a citizens’ wage fails to account will be the role of the Conservatives, as towards service industries. for where the money will be raised, the party for working people, to seek Whilst this may not seem a reve- nor does it configure this policy in the viable, market-led solutions to the issues lation to many who have studied the global economic nexus. Similarly, he raised by technology’s advance. labour market over the last forty years, contradicts himself when he suggests it offers a useful insight into the impact that education should be a funding The Rise of the Robots: Technology and the that intelligent technology will have on priority when earlier in the book he threat of Mass Unemployment, Martin Ford; the service-based economies. The retail argues that hard work and study will Oneworld Publications; 352pp; £18.99

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Thatcher’s Trial: Six Months that Defined a Leader By MP

Diane Banks reminds us of key moments in Margaret Thatcher’s leadership

diane banks is a literary way Keynes and his Bloomsbury agent and a non-executive cohorts conducted their entire lives director of Bright Blue completely unfathomable.

Thatcher’s Trial presents a concise, A political career worthy beautifully written argument for the six months from the 1981 budget to the of being written about is Cabinet reshuffle of September that year, necessarily long and multi- establishing Thatcher’s place in history faceted as a leader. Kwasi Kwarteng uses the turbulent sequence of events during this time – the Thatcher’s binary way of thinking government’s unpopularity, Geoffrey led to an attempt to create a binary Howe’s controversial budget, unrest in cabinet, with the September reshuffle Ireland, urban riots, strikes and a brutal seeing the more moderate, traditional, Cabinet reshuffle leaving many to ques- older, privately educated Tories such as tion the raison d’etre of the Conservative , Peter Thorney- Party – as the backdrop for examining croft and Ian Gilmour ousted, in favour concentrating on an aspect of character. Thatcher’s defining characteristics. of largely grammar school educated Notable examples of the genre are Ben Thatcherite loyalists such as Cecil Brown’s 2011 play Three Days in May, Whatever one thought of her Parkinson and . James Graham’s This House (2012), Whatever one thought of her actions Richard Davenport-Hines’s Universal actions at the time - and it’s at the time – and it’s hard to deny that Man: The Seven Lives of John Maynard hard to deny that she could be she could be brutal – her methods Keynes (2015) and numerous books on brutal - her methods worked worked. She went on to hold office aspects of Churchill’s life, one of which for another nine years, coinciding is reviewed in this magazine. with a massive economic upsurge and A political career worthy of being First and foremost is that she “saw re-establishing the UK’s place on the written about is necessarily long and the world in basic, even simplistic world stage. multi-faceted, and whilst there will terms”, her thinking underpinned Kwarteng’s argument works too. always be a place for the seminal by core ideas such as freedom, the This is a short book covering a short biography, space given to scrutiny of rule of law, good and evil, and small period of time and it is possible to one element of a complex subject does government. The book makes much make any number of arguments for refresh the debate. Kwarteng’s style of her Methodist upbringing, an other moments in Thatcher’s long and gives a wonderful sense of immediacy influence which is certainly difficult illustrious career being definitive. Yet it by drawing heavily on contemporary to ignore given her frequent references is difficult to think of such an extensive accounts, succeeding in showing to her faith in her speeches and her sequence of obstacles occurring in just without too much telling, whilst sometimes bizarre – many would a few months so early on in any other maintaining a coherent argument. His say flawed – comparisons between leader’s career, rooted in a period of previous titles have won great critical the role of a prime minister and great unpopularity. acclaim, and we must hope there will be the role of a prophet. As Kwarteng Thatcher’s Trial is a very twenty-first many more to come. points out, it wasn’t only Keynesian century biography, fitting in with economics which made no sense a trend in both print and on stage Six Months that defined a leader, Kwasi to her. She would have found the for examining a snapshot in time or Kwarteng; Bloomsbury; 272pp; £21.99

Winter 2015 | 35 BOOKS & ARTS INTERVIEW

Arts interview: Award-winning playwright and politico James Graham

You have written a number of political plays for screen and the evolution of democracy. theatre, including This House, Coalition and The Vote. Where I also grew up in a politically charged time, and environ- did this interest in politics come from? ment – a mining village in the 80s & 90s, as the pits closed. I came to politics through the backdoor, I think – that back- There was always a human face to politics, to me. It wasn’t door being history. It was one of my favourite subjects at academic, it was real. school, mainly because I’m passionate about narrative. I’ve al- The Vote takes place in a Lambeth polling station on the night of ways believed that story is the best vehicle to unlocking truth. the recent election. Did you see a Conservative majority coming? Cause and effect, ‘who did what, as a response to what, and Absolutely not! I like to think I have a reasonably astute polit- why?’. Through this I was introduced to the clash of ideology, ical antenna but at the time, looking at the polls, I thought, >>

36 | Centre Write INTERVIEW BOOKS & ARTS

>> “if they couldn’t achieve a majority in more probable cir- Culture has such important economic and social currency in cumstances in 2010, how they could increase their vote in this country. I’ve never understood how, if people can see 2015?” But on reflection, of course, it makes total sense. The how a huge investment in education is a no-brainer for long rise of UKIP affecting northern Labour towns more than Tory term financial and social and emotional prosperity, why a heartlands. The loss of 50 Scottish seats. How Lib Dem votes comparatively minuscule investment in storytelling, music, moving to Labour in Liberal/Conservative marginals would art, drama outside of normal market forces (which gets re- only benefit the Conservatives in those seats. turned to the treasury four times over) is such a hard thing to get our head around. Who did you speak to when researching material for The Vote? Obviously I’m biased. But it’s one of the only things left What did you learn? that gives Britain a reputation on the world stage, and still some We were very lucky to have access to a range of polling people want to kill it, as part of a seemingly inevitable national clerks and presiding officers from London boroughs. We decline. The tax breaks the previous government introduced also spoke to political advisors, journalists, historians, to get were helpful. But huge cuts are coming, and it wil be the nail a sense of where this election sat in the British electoral narra- in the coffin for large swathes of our cultural life. tive. What it ‘meant’. Would you ever be tempted to become involved in politics You have touched upon the theme of democracy in several of yourself? your works. Do you think our current democratic system is fit I feel like I am involved in politics. I think we should all feel for purpose? like we are part of this endeavour, whether we’re standing in I think the prevalent cynicism and negativity towards politics parliament or not. Activism, debates, campaigns – and yes, isn’t helpful. I truly believe we get the democracy we deserve. even plays. If it isn’t fit for purpose, we shouldn’t just moan about it down the pub and step out of the system by not voting or whatever. Finally, what do you make of ? We should work to change it. There are huge problems – I can’t deny that, at the very least, politics seems surprising and mainly in representation; the kind of people who want to interesting again, which is never a bad thing. I thought a lot of stand and are selected to stand for parliament. MPs used to the conversation between different tribes during the leadership be pulled from the communities they served, have experience was unnecessarily aggressive and toxic. Passion is fine, in all sorts of professions. Now, politics is a . And but polemical intolerance is destructive. It didn’t have to be that’s really bad. that way. It could have been a respectful and open sharing of Did you think that the Coalition Government did enough to opposing views. Labour is meant to be a broad church, capable support culture and the arts? What message do you have for the of many different ideas. As for the future – I have my pad and current Culture Secretary? pen at the ready…

Dynasty: The Rise and Fall of the House of Caesar By Tom Holland

Basil Vincent picks apart this history of the Julio-Claudians

basil vincent is a teacher outlandish and often striking detail. , the first Emperor, was at at a secondary school in Tom Holland’s latest tome the forefront of this process, carefully East London. He has just recounts the intrigue, scandal and high transforming the broken republican completed two years of Teach First. politics of Rome’s inaugural imperial system into a deliberately understated dynasty, the Julio-Claudians. Holland imperial regime. After Augustus’ “Desire”, mused Ovid, is “fuelled by sees the Julio-Claudian dynasty death, the baton of power passed prohibitions”. This example of one (marked by the reigns of Augustus, peacefully to his step-son Tiberius, of the celebrated Roman poet’s more Tiberius, Caligula, Claudius and infamous for gross depravity in the salacious aphorisms is well placed ) as a “long, continuous period latter years of his otherwise successful in a new book that is peppered with of experimentation”. reign. The popularity of the youthful

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Caligula, Tiberius’ successor, quickly construction of Nero’s Golden House. Holland rightly prefaces the reign of gave way to abject horror at the new Political violence is detailed in all Augustus with an overview of Roman Emperor’s flagrant abuse of imperial >> its horror, underlining the dangerously history since the foundation of the >> power, resulting in a violent and arbitrary nature of Julio-Claudian city but is careless in his approach. early end to his tyrannical rule. rule. Notably gory references include He claims that only the Romans Caligula’s uncle, Claudius, behaved the murder and rape of the disgraced “possessed the talents sufficient to con- more sensitively in office. Yet for all of Praetorian Prefect Sejanus’ children, quer and maintain a universal Empire”, Claudius’ efforts, the Julio-Claudian and the plebeian proclivity for dragging utterly ignoring the prominence of experiment was nevertheless extin- mauled aristocratic corpses from the the Carthaginians, whom he reduces guished by the wildly irresponsible forum to the river on meat hooks. to a mere “metropolis of merchant and despotic Nero, who exceeded Holland certainly relishes his princes on the coast of North Africa”, Tiberius in his degeneracy and subject, as his eccentric use of choosing to ignore their unques- Caligula in his cruelty. language demonstrates. During a tionable dominance of the Western lengthy discussion of Roman sexual Mediterranean between the seventh Holland is particularly attitudes, Holland mentions how and third centuries BC. It was not for impotence was “rammed home to nothing, after all, that Cato warned: perceptive on the role of men” and that to cuckold “was also to “Carthage must be destroyed”. the built environment in shaft the husband”. The “prohibitions and are reflecting imperial interests, and perils” that were “erected” also predictably featured, but there is ensured “a paradox that plenty were no mention whatsoever of Marius, such as the glorious rebuilding prepared to swallow”. The extreme whose revolutionary military reforms of Augustan Rome or the prurience of Julio-Claudian society is were arguably a major factor in the clearly something Holland wishes to downfall of the Republic, nor Sulla, controversial construction impress upon us, though we are left who set the benchmark for ruthless of Nero’s Golden House wondering just how much innuendo is autocracy decades before Caesar and necessary to prove the point. his Julio-Claudian successors. The There is much to commend In many ways, however, Dynasty Gracchi are similarly diminished as Holland’s account of the Julio-Clau- is disappointing. In keeping with “grandsons of Scipio Africanus”, and dians. He takes the time to construct his previous works, Holland writes Cicero is barely mentioned at all. Not a broad cultural hinterland for the in a broad, narrative style, which he until the final chapter on Nero are period, drawing on the works of Ovid, defends as being the most appropriate we given any sense of the influence Horace and other literary figures to for covering a lengthy period of of Greek culture on Rome, which enrich his narrative. Considerable history. But by doing so, Holland unhelpfully presents Nero’s interests attention is paid to the importance of unfortunately overlooks a great deal as exceptional. religion in Julio-Claudian Rome; the of historical nuance, as he leaves no Overall, Dynasty provides a decent role of portents and omens feature room for scrutinising his sources. introduction to the period, but those heavily alongside the more meaty The section on Augustus, for with a serious interest in the fascinating military and political analysis. instance, uses the Emperor’s own reign of the Julio-Claudians would do Women are refreshingly recurrent boastful posthumous res gestae as an well to approach the book with a throughout the book. Julia, the objective source to prove his modesty, keenly critical eye. The closing pages of beloved daughter of Augustus, is and relies on the Second Century the book suggest that Holland may well mischievously dubbed “the people’s Greek writer Appian to substantiate have future plans to cover the reigns of princess”, whilst the unfortunate Augustus’ early popularity. Holland the Flavian Emperors, who gained Agrippina, the mother of Nero, makes no mention of the fact that power in the civil war that followed receives deserved attention for her Appian’s own primary sources are Nero’s demise. Vespasian, Titus and part in the accession of her enfant problematic, nor that a patchy account Domitian will certainly be another terrible. written nearly 200 years after Augus- imperial ‘dynasty’ worthy of Holland’s Holland is particularly perceptive tus’ death may be untrustworthy. attention. on the role of the built environment Augustus himself, rather bizarrely, is in reflecting imperial interests, repeatedly referred to as a “terrorist”, The Rise and Fall of the House of such as the glorious rebuilding of in a judgement that is anachronistic, Caesar, Tom Holland; Little, Brown; Augustan Rome or the controversial absurd, and completely unexplained. 512pp; £25.00

38 | Centre Write Individual power and potential Thirteen million Britons are in poverty, the majority of which are in low paid work. Especially when fiscal resources are increasingly constrained, Bright Blue is exploring and devising credible and imaginative approaches to improve our welfare and education systems to ensure greater individual and national prosperity.

Security and prosperity in the globalised world The globalised, capitalist economy has increased living standards and opportunities for millions. But the composition of communities has changed, sometimes rapidly, and pressures on our resources and environment have mounted. Bright Blue is suggesting ways to find a better balance between maximising the benefits and addressing the challenges of globalisation – such as immigration, environmental degradation and resource scarcity – to build stable societies and sustainable economies.

The future of conservatism Across the western world, societies are becoming more ethnically diverse and socially liberal. Bright Blue is looking at how conservatism can modernise to remain compelling and inspiring in RESEARCH THEMES liberal democracies. www.brightblue.org.uk

professor david blanchflower | priti patel mp | matthew taylor | james graham