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The Future of Work

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The Future of Work SAJID JAVID MP LORD WILLETTS on the importance of on the future of tax credits Centre vocational education and welfare reform Write The future of work professor david blanchflower | priti patel mp | matthew taylor | james graham Editorial Contents Contributors 4 Editor’s letter a new welfare settlement bim afolami is a former Conservative PPC Richard Mabey 24 The Human Welfare Economy kate andrews is Research Fellow 5 Director’s note Matthew Taylor at the Adam Smith Institute Ryan Shorthouse 25 Tories and Tax Credits diane banks is a Non-Executive Director of Bright Blue the economy of the future The Rt Hon Lord (David) Willetts david blanchflower is 6 Is the UK experiencing a “jobs 26 The future of the Living Wage Professor of Economics at miracle”? campaign Dartmouth Andrew Lilico and David Blanchflower Neil Jameson christopher brooks is Senior Policy Manager at Age UK 27 Is the Conservative Party now the 9 Rev the finance engine to avoid dave coplin is Chief Envisioning an economic stall workers’ party? Office of Microsoft UK David Skelton John Longworth benedict dellot is Senior 10 The problem with productivity a more diverse workforce Researcher at the RSA Dave Coplin james dobson is a Researcher at 28 Narrowing the gender pay gap Bright Blue 11 The role of finance in the economy of Philip Salter carole easton is Chief the future 29 Pride and prejudice in an ageing Executive of the Young Women’s Bim Afolami workforce Trust the jobs of the future Christopher Brooks james graham is an award winning playwright 12 Giving vocational education the respect 30 The wasted talent of female NEETs will humphreys is a DPhil it deserves Carole Easton candidate at Oxford University The Rt Hon Sajid Javid MP 31 Deregulation holds the key to nick hurd is MP for Ruislip, Northwood & Pinner 13 Who would want to be self- affordable childcare neil jameson is Founding Kate Andrews employed? Director of Citizens UK Benedict Dellot books & arts the rt hon sajid javid mp is 14 Letter from America: A future like Secretary of State for Business, 32 Winston Churchill Reporting: the past Innovation & Skills Adventures of a Young War Margaret Levi alexander king is an Associate Correspondent (Simon Read) of Bright Blue 15 The Great Fragmentation: challenges Keith Tomlinson david kirkby is Senior Research for the on-demand economy 33 The Rise of the Robots: Technology Fellow at Bright Blue Wingham Rowan and the Threat of Mass Unemployment margaret levi is Professor 16 The future of trade unions (Mark Ford) of Political Science at Stanford Frances O’Grady Will Humphreys andrew lilico is Chairman of Europe Economics from bright blue 35 Thatcher’s Trial: Six Months john longworth is Director that Defined a Leader (Kwasi 17 Bright Blue research update General of the British Chambers Kwarteng) of Commerce David Kirkby Diane Banks richard babey is the Editor 18 The Centre Write interview: 36 Arts interview: James Graham of Centre Write The Rt Hon Priti Patel MP frances o’grady is General 37 Dynasty: The Rise and Fall Secretary of the TUC 20 Why I’m a Bright Blue MP of the House of Caesar (Tom Holland) the rt hon priti patel mp Nick Hurd MP Basil Vincent is Minister for Employment 21 Going part-time: Bright Blue’s recent wingham rowan is Director report of the Beyond Jobs project James Dobson philip salter is Director of the Entrepreneurs Network ryan shorthouse is Director of Bright Blue Bright Blue Director: Ryan Shorthouse david skelton is Director Bright Blue is an independent think tank and Chair: Matthew d’Ancona Board of Directors: Rachel Johnson, of Renewal pressure group for liberal conservatism. Alexandra Jezeph, Diane Banks & Phil Clarke matthew taylor is Chief Executive of the RSA Editor: Richard Mabey keith tomlinson is an economic Assistant Editors: Corinna Peachey, Meera Sonecha and investment researcher & Alexander King (Arts) basil vincent is a Teach First www.brightblue.org.uk graduate the rt hon lord willetts is Printers: PPC, www.ppcbristol.co.uk Executive Chair of the Resolution Designers: Soapbox, www.soapbox.co.uk Foundation Editor’s letter Why we should be cautiously optimistic richard mabey is the about the future of work Editor of Centre Write I recently received an email from the General Manager of Dr Andrew Lilico (page 6) and former Monetary Policy Uber, London. With a subject line that read “Help save the Committee member Professor David Blanchflower (page 6) Uber you know and love”, it was pretty clear from the outset debate the macro side of the UK “jobs miracle”, while on what it would be about. the micro side Microsoft executive Dave Coplin (page 10) For some time, the heavily-regulated drivers of London’s discusses the future of workplace productivity. black cabs had been lobbying Transport for London (TFL) On the jobs of the future, Business Secretary The Rt Hon to limit the exponential growth of Uber and its unlicensed Sajid Javid MP (page 12) highlights the importance of voca- minicab service. Among their concerns, the $50bn company’s tional education in equipping our workforce with the skills contribution to congestion, doubts over its drivers’ employ- of the future. In our Letter from America, we hear from ment status and its modest contribution to UK tax receipts. Stanford Professor Margaret Levi (page 14) on familiar US The black cab drivers were furious. experiences of recent job creation. Benedict Dellot (page 13) And sure enough, the email was a counterstrike from Uber. discusses barriers to self-employment and we hear from It hit back at proposals from TFL, which aimed to impose a TUC General Secretary Frances O’Grady (page 16) on the mandatory five-minute waiting time, force drivers to work future of the trade union movement. with only one operator and take out that bit of magic that lets On a new welfare settlement, RSA Chief Executive you see on your screen all the Uber cars around you. Luddite Matthew Taylor (page 24) suggests design principles for nonsense, they alleged, which would make life worse for both a ‘human welfare economy’. David Skelton (page 27), customers and drivers. Director of Renewal, casts a political eye on the idea of the Wherever you come out on the point, there is no denying Conservatives being the ‘workers’ party, while The Rt Hon that technology is having a profound impact on the nature Lord (David) Willetts (page 25) dissects the thorny issue of of work. And it’s not just taxi drivers who are threatened. tax credits. Professionals too are starting to experience the impact of On a more diverse workforce, Philip Salter (page 28), disruptive business models on their long-established indus- Director of the Entrepreneurs’ Network, proposes a novel tries. The level of self-employed workers is higher than at approach to narrowing the gender pay gap. Kate Andrews any point over the last 40 years, our workplaces are more (page 31) of the Adam Smith Institute shares her take diverse than ever before and thousands of companies across on the elusive policy prize of affordable childcare, while the country, from Aviva to Lidl, are offering their employees Christopher Brooks (page 29) of Age UK looks to the other the Living Wage. end of the spectrum to show the economic and social benefits Technology has been a significant enabler of this change, but of working in later life. policy has played its part too. Government has both reacted to Finally, I put some of the questions raised across these four the new landscape and proactively encouraged (or mandated) policy areas to Employment Minister The Rt Hon Priti Patel change. Take the Chancellor’s Budget announcement to raise MP (page 18) when I interviewed her on her approaches to the minimum wage; take recent legislation (originally proposed future-proofing UK employment policy. by Bright Blue) to extend shared parental leave to grandpar- The changing nature of work will be one of the defining ents; take the Government’s commitment to reducing NEETs policy challenges of our age. Government should choose to by 15% over the next 10 years. This, against a backdrop of a embrace the extraordinary opportunity for economic and growing economy and record employment levels. social progress it affords, while making sure that no one is left In this edition of Centre Write, we look at four key aspects behind. If it does so successfully, and executes on the policy to the future of work: the new economy, the jobs of the future, directions to which it has committed itself, we can be cau- a new welfare settlement and a more diverse workforce. tiously optimistic about a brighter future for work; a future in On the new economy, John Longworth (page 9), Director which everyone can benefit. General of the British Chambers of Commerce, highlights the I hope you enjoy reading this edition of Centre Write as importance of small business lending to power future growth. much as we have enjoyed making it. 4 | Centre Write But the naysayers are adamant that critical role in topping up the incomes director’s note work needs to be cut. They argue for of those working day in and day out maximum working times in a week and to support their families. They did not Ryan Shorthouse the redistribution of working hours. deserve the scale of the cuts to their tax Last year, the President of the UK credits which the Chancellor originally Faculty of Public Health, one of Britain’s proposed, hence why Bright Blue ryan shorthouse is the top doctors, called for a switch to a campaigned against those proposals Director of Bright Blue four-day working week.
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