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"Waves" of the Russia's Presidential Reforms Break About Premier's "Energy-Rocks"
AFRICA REVIEW EURASIA REVIEW "Waves" of the Russia's Presidential Reforms Break About Premier's "Energy-Rocks" By Dr. Zurab Garakanidze* Story about the Russian President Dmitry Medvedev’s initiative to change the make-up of the boards of state-owned firms, especially energy companies. In late March of this year, Russian President Dmitry Medvedev demanded that high-ranking officials – namely, deputy prime ministers and cabinet-level ministers that co-ordinate state policy in the same sectors in which those companies are active – step down from their seats on the boards of state-run energy companies by July 1. He also said that October 1 would be the deadline for replacing these civil servants with independent directors. The deadline has now passed, but Medvedev‟s bid to diminish the government‟s influence in the energy sector has run into roadblocks. Most of the high-level government officials who have stepped down are being replaced not by independent managers, but by directors from other state companies in the same sector. Russia‟s state-owned oil and gas companies have not been quick to replace directors who also hold high-ranking government posts, despite or- ders from President Dmitry Medvedev. High-ranking Russian officials have made a show of following President Medvedev‟s order to leave the boards of state-run energy companies, but government influence over the sector remains strong. This indicates that the political will needed for the presidential administration to push eco- nomic reforms forward may be inadequate. 41 www.cesran.org/politicalreflection Political Reflection | September-October-November 2011 Russia's Presidential Reforms | By Dr. -
After WTO Membership: Promoting Human Rights in Russia with the Magnitsky Act Ariel Cohen, Phd, and Bryan Riley
BACKGROUNDER No. 2687 | MAY 14, 2012 After WTO Membership: Promoting Human Rights in Russia with the Magnitsky Act Ariel Cohen, PhD, and Bryan Riley Abstract n a few months, Russia will become Russia’s accession to the World Ia member of the World Trade Talking Points Trade Organization (WTO) will put Organization (WTO). U.S. businesses U.S. companies at a disadvantage will not be able to benefit from the ■■ Because of Russia’s imminent with their global competitors unless concessions Russia made to join the accession to the World Trade Organization (WTO), U.S. com- Congress first exempts Russia from WTO unless Congress first repeals panies could be placed at a severe the application of the Jackson–Vanik the Jackson–Vanik Amendment, a disadvantage in Russia due to the Amendment, a tool from the 1970s powerful tool that the U.S. success- continued application of the Jack- designed to promote human rights fully used to promote human rights son–Vanik Amendment. that no longer advances that goal. in Soviet Russia and other countries ■■ The U.S. should grant Russia per- Russia admittedly suffers from weak which restricted emigration dur- manent normal trade relations rule of law and pervasive corruption, ing the Cold War. Failure to repeal status, but only after updating its but Congress should pass new human Jackson–Vanik could place U.S. tools for protecting human rights rights legislation rather than try to companies at a disadvantage while in Russia by replacing the Jack- uphold Jackson–Vanik beyond its companies in other WTO members son–Vanik Amendment with the utility. -
Afghan Narcotrafficking: a Joint Threat Assessment
POLICY REPORT 2013—1 Copyright © 2013 EastWest Institute ISBN: 978-0-9856824-1-5 On the cover: A scarecrow stands tall in a poppy field in northern Afghanistan. Photos: Reporters.be/AP The views expressed in this publication are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the EastWest Institute, its board of directors or its staff. The EastWest Institute is an international, non-partisan, not-for-profit policy organization focused on confronting critical challenges that endanger peace. EWI was established in 1980 as a catalyst to build trust, develop leadership, and promote collaboration for positive change. The institute has offices in New York, Brussels, Moscow and Washington. For more information about the EastWest Institute or this paper, please contact: The EastWest Institute 11 East 26th Street, 20th Floor New York, NY 10010 U.S.A. 1-212-824-4100 [email protected] www.ewi.info AFGHAN NARCOTRAFFICKING A JOINT THREAT ASSESSMENT JOINT U.S. - RUSSIA WORKING GROUP ON AFGHAN NARCOTRAFFICKING APRIL 2013 PRINCIPAL AUTHOR: Ekaterina Stepanova EDITOR: Jacqueline McLaren Miller CONTRIBUTORS: Ilnur Batyrshin, Head of the Scientific Research Center, Russian Federal Drug Control Service (FSKN) George Gavrilis, Executive Director, The Hollings Center for International Dialogue Viktor Korgun, Head of the Afghanistan Department, Institute of Oriental Studies, Russian Academy of Sciences John “Jack” Lawn, former Administrator, Drug Enforcement Administration David Mansfield, Independent Consultant Gretchen Peters, author, -
The Siloviki in Russian Politics
The Siloviki in Russian Politics Andrei Soldatov and Michael Rochlitz Who holds power and makes political decisions in contemporary Russia? A brief survey of available literature in any well-stocked bookshop in the US or Europe will quickly lead one to the answer: Putin and the “siloviki” (see e.g. LeVine 2009; Soldatov and Borogan 2010; Harding 2011; Felshtinsky and Pribylovsky 2012; Lucas 2012, 2014 or Dawisha 2014). Sila in Russian means force, and the siloviki are the members of Russia’s so called “force ministries”—those state agencies that are authorized to use violence to respond to threats to national security. These armed agents are often portrayed—by journalists and scholars alike—as Russia’s true rulers. A conventional wisdom has emerged about their rise to dominance, which goes roughly as follows. After taking office in 2000, Putin reconsolidated the security services and then gradually placed his former associates from the KGB and FSB in key positions across the country (Petrov 2002; Kryshtanovskaya and White 2003, 2009). Over the years, this group managed to disable almost all competing sources of power and control. United by a common identity, a shared worldview, and a deep personal loyalty to Putin, the siloviki constitute a cohesive corporation, which has entrenched itself at the heart of Russian politics. Accountable to no one but the president himself, they are the driving force behind increasingly authoritarian policies at home (Illarionov 2009; Roxburgh 2013; Kasparov 2015), an aggressive foreign policy (Lucas 2014), and high levels of state predation and corruption (Dawisha 2014). While this interpretation contains elements of truth, we argue that it provides only a partial and sometimes misleading and exaggerated picture of the siloviki’s actual role. -
The Siloviki in Putin's Russia
Ian Bremmer and Samuel Charap The Siloviki in Putin’s Russia: Who They Are and What They Want The July 2006 meeting of the Group of Eight (G-8) major indus- trialized nations in St. Petersburg focused the attention of the international media on Russia. On issues ranging from Middle East conflict to energy se- curity, President Vladimir Putin sought to demonstrate that his increasingly self-confident government has earned its seat at the G-8 table. Coverage of the summit focused squarely on Putin—his international priorities, control over domestic politics, personal relationships with other heads of state, and leadership style. These stories created the impression that Putin is Russian politics, reinforcing the view that to understand Putin himself is to under- stand Kremlin policy. Since Putin was named acting president on December 31, 1999, ana- lysts have poured over his personal history, public statements, and writings, confidently forecasting political and economic trends based largely on their interpretations of what they found. Those who portray him as an autocrat underline his KGB background. Others point to his tutelage under former St. Petersburg mayor and liberal reformer Anatoly Sobchak or his preference for pragmatism over ideology. Recently, Western scholars unearthed his doc- toral thesis and used it to explain Russian state involvement in the energy sector.1 President George W. Bush famously contributed to this line of analysis by implying in 2001 that his “sense of the man’s soul” provided a reliable foun- dation for U.S.-Russian relations. Despite its parsimony and popularity, this approach to understanding Kremlin policy, which some have called “Putinol- ogy,” creates a misleading impression of how Russia is ruled. -
Russi-Monitor-Monthl
MONTHLY May 2020 CONTENTS 3 17 28 POLAND AND DENMARK BEGIN BELARUS RAMPS UP RUSSIAN ECONOMY COMES CONSTRUCTION OF BALTIC DIVERSIFICATION EFFORTS BADLY BECAUSE OF PANDEMIC PIPE PROJECT TO CHALLENGE WITH U.S. AND GULF CRUDE RUSSIAN GAS DOMINANCE PURCHASES POLAND AND DENMARK BEGIN CONSTRUCTION OF BALTIC PIPE PROJECT CORONAVIRUS IN RUSSIA: BAD NEWS FOR 3 TO CHALLENGE RUSSIAN GAS DOMINANCE 20 THE COUNTRY MOSCOW: THE CAPITAL RUSSIA UNVEILS RESCUE PLAN FOR OIL 5 OF RUSSIAN CORONAVIRUS OUTBREAK 22 SECTOR VLADIMIR PUTIN SUFFERS PRESTIGIOUS 6 FAILURE IN VICTORY DAY CELEBRATIONS 23 TENSIONS RISE IN THE BLACK SEA RUSSIA EASES LOCKDOWN YET OFFERS ROSNEFT, TRANSNEFT IN NEW FEUD OVER 8 LITTLE SUPPORT TO CITIZENS 25 TRANSPORTATION TARIFFS ROSNEFT’S SECHIN ASKS OFFICIALS FOR NEW TAX RELIEFS DESPITE RECENT GAZPROM IS TURNING TOWARDS CHINA, 10 MISHAPS 27 BUT THERE ARE PROBLEMS FRADKOV REMAINS AT THE HELM OF THE RUSSIAN ECONOMY COMES BADLY 12 KREMLIN’S “INTELLIGENCE SERVICE” 28 BECAUSE OF PANDEMIC RUSSIA STEPS UP DIPLOMATIC EFFORTS AS RUSSIA AIMS TO BOOST MILITARY FACILITIES 14 KREMLIN AIDE KOZAK VISITS BERLIN 30 IN SYRIA GAZPROM’S NATURAL GAS EXPORT RUSSIA–NATO TENSIONS CONTINUE ON 16 REVENUE DECLINED DRAMATICALLY IN Q1 32 BOTH FLANKS BELARUS RAMPS UP DIVERSIFICATION RUSSIA, BELARUS SQUABBLE OVER GAS EFFORTS WITH U.S. AND GULF CRUDE DELIVERIES IN NEW CHAPTER OF ENERGY 17 PURCHASES 34 WAR RUSSIA’S ROSNEFT HAS NEW OWNERSHIP RUSSIA FACES BIGGEST MILITARY THREAT 19 STRUCTURE BUT SAME CEO 36 FROM WEST, SHOIGU SAYS 2 www.warsawinstitute.org 4 May 2020 POLAND AND DENMARK BEGIN CONSTRUCTION OF BALTIC PIPE PROJECT TO CHALLENGE RUSSIAN GAS DOMINANCE Construction of a major gas pipeline from Norway is to begin in the coming days, Polish President Andrzej Duda said in the morning of May 4. -
ASD-Covert-Foreign-Money.Pdf
overt C Foreign Covert Money Financial loopholes exploited by AUGUST 2020 authoritarians to fund political interference in democracies AUTHORS: Josh Rudolph and Thomas Morley © 2020 The Alliance for Securing Democracy Please direct inquiries to The Alliance for Securing Democracy at The German Marshall Fund of the United States 1700 18th Street, NW Washington, DC 20009 T 1 202 683 2650 E [email protected] This publication can be downloaded for free at https://securingdemocracy.gmfus.org/covert-foreign-money/. The views expressed in GMF publications and commentary are the views of the authors alone. Cover and map design: Kenny Nguyen Formatting design: Rachael Worthington Alliance for Securing Democracy The Alliance for Securing Democracy (ASD), a bipartisan initiative housed at the German Marshall Fund of the United States, develops comprehensive strategies to deter, defend against, and raise the costs on authoritarian efforts to undermine and interfere in democratic institutions. ASD brings together experts on disinformation, malign finance, emerging technologies, elections integrity, economic coercion, and cybersecurity, as well as regional experts, to collaborate across traditional stovepipes and develop cross-cutting frame- works. Authors Josh Rudolph Fellow for Malign Finance Thomas Morley Research Assistant Contents Executive Summary �������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 1 Introduction and Methodology �������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� -
Patronage of Vladimir Putin
LLorord of the d of the RiRigsgs RosRosnenefftt a as s a a MMiirrrror oor off Rus Russisia’sa’s Ev Evololututiionon Nina Poussenkova Carnegie Moscow Center PortPortrraiaitt of of RosneRosneft ft E&P Refining Marketing Projects Yuganskneftegas Komsomolsk Purneftegas Altainefteproduct Sakhalin 3, 4, 5 Sakhalinmorneftegas Tuapse Kurgannefteproduct Vankor block of fields Severnaya Neft Yamalnefteproduct West Kamchatka shelf Polar Lights Nakhodkanefteproduct Black and Azov Seas Sakhalin1 Vostoknefteproduct Kazakhstan Vankorneft Arkhangelsknefteproduct Algiers Krasnodarneftegas Murmansknefteproduct CPC Stavropolneftegas Smolensknefteproduct VostochnoSugdinsk block Grozneft Artag Verkhnechonsk KabardinoBalkar Fuel Co Neftegas Karachayevo Udmurtneft Cherkessknefteproduct Kubannefteproduct Tuapsenefteproduct Stavropoliye ExYuganskneftegas: 2004 oil production (21 mt) – 4.7% of Russia’s total CEO – S.Bogdanchikov BoD Chairman – I.Sechin Proved oil reserves – 4.8% of Russia’s total With Yuganskneftegas: > 75% owned by the state Rosneftegas 2006 oil production (75 mt) – 15% of Russia’s total 9.44% YUKOS >14% sold during IPO Proved oil reserves – 20% of Russia’s total RoRosnesneftft’s’s Saga Saga 1985 1990 1992 1995 2000 2005 2015 KomiTEK Sibneft LUKOIL The next ONACO target ??? Surgut TNK Udmurtneft The USSR Slavneft Ministry of Rosneftegas the Oil Rosneft Rosneft Rosneft Rosneft Rosneft Industry 12 mt 240 mt 20 mt 460 mt 75 mt 595 mt VNK 135 mt Milestones: SIDANCO 1992 – start of privatization Severnaya Neft 1998 – appointment of S.Bogdanchikov -
Russia's Reaction to the Magnitsky Act and Relations with the West
RUSSIAN ANALYTICAL DIGEST No. 120, 23 November 2012 2 Analysis Russia’s Reaction to the Magnitsky Act and Relations With the West Ben Aris, Moscow Abstract The reaction of the US and EU to the death of Sergei Magnitsky by issuing travel bans to 60 Russian offi- cials, and the Magnitsky Act in the US, has become an issue of contention in Russian–Western relations. The Kremlin views the Magnitsky Act as a politically-motivated attempt to interfere in Russian domestic affairs. At the same time, in spite of some mild reforms during the Medvedev Presidency, the Magnitsky case has not had a big impact on either Russian domestic governance or political debate. he death of Russian lawyer Sergei Magnitsky on Sep- documentaries on YouTube on the “Russian Untouch- Ttember 16, 2009 in a Moscow pre-trial detention ables” and “Hermitage TV” channels). centre was a tragedy and his human rights were almost In November 2008 Magnitsky was arrested on certainly violated. Magnitsky was a Russian national related tax evasion charges, which Browder claims were and a lawyer with the American firm Firestone Dun- instigated as a retaliatory measure by the same officers can. He was representing the UK registered and highly that were involved in the tax rebate scheme. While in successful fund Hermitage Capital, which had fallen prison he fell ill. It later emerged that Magnitsky had foul of the Kremlin. His death became a lightning rod complained of worsening stomach pain for five days prior for tensions between Moscow and Washington and led to his death. Browder and his associates have also found to the passage of the “Justice for Sergei Magnitsky Act” convincing evidence that Magnitsky was beaten while in into the US Congress in 2011, which has driven a wedge jail and died after medical aid, to which he was entitled, between Russia and US foreign relations. -
Organized Crime and the Russian State Challenges to U.S.-Russian Cooperation
Organized Crime and the Russian State Challenges to U.S.-Russian Cooperation J. MICHAEL WALLER "They write I'm the mafia's godfather. It was Vladimir Ilich Lenin who was the real organizer of the mafia and who set up the criminal state." -Otari Kvantrishvili, Moscow organized crime leader.l "Criminals Nave already conquered the heights of the state-with the chief of the KGB as head of a mafia group." -Former KGB Maj. Gen. Oleg Kalugin.2 Introduction As the United States and Russia launch a Great Crusade against organized crime, questions emerge not only about the nature of joint cooperation, but about the nature of organized crime itself. In addition to narcotics trafficking, financial fraud and racketecring, Russian organized crime poses an even greater danger: the theft and t:rafficking of weapons of mass destruction. To date, most of the discussion of organized crime based in Russia and other former Soviet republics has emphasized the need to combat conven- tional-style gangsters and high-tech terrorists. These forms of criminals are a pressing danger in and of themselves, but the problem is far more profound. Organized crime-and the rarnpant corruption that helps it flourish-presents a threat not only to the security of reforms in Russia, but to the United States as well. The need for cooperation is real. The question is, Who is there in Russia that the United States can find as an effective partner? "Superpower of Crime" One of the greatest mistakes the West can make in working with former Soviet republics to fight organized crime is to fall into the trap of mirror- imaging. -
Power Surge? Russia’S Power Ministries from Yeltsin to Putin and Beyond
Power Surge? Russia’s Power Ministries from Yeltsin to Putin and Beyond PONARS Policy Memo No. 414 Brian D. Taylor Syracuse University December 2006 The “rise of the siloviki ” has become a standard framework for analyzing Russian politics under President Vladimir Putin . According to this view, the main difference between Putin’s rule and that of former president Boris Yeltsin is the triumph of guns (the siloviki ) over money (the oligarchs). This approach has a lot to recommend it, but it also raises sever al important questions . One is the ambiguity embedded in the term siloviki itself . Taken from the Russian phrase for the power ministries ( silovie ministerstva ) or power structures ( silovie strukturi ), the word is sometimes used to refer to those ministrie s and agencies ; sometimes to personnel from those structures ; and sometimes to a specific “clan” in Russian politics centered around the deputy head of the presidential administration, former KGB official Igor Sechin . A second issue , often glossed over in the “rise of the siloviki ” story , is whether the increase in political power of men with guns has necessarily led to the strengthening of the state, Putin’s central policy goal . Finally, as many observers have pointed out, treating the siloviki as a unit – particularly when the term is used to apply to all power ministries or power ministry personnel – seriously overstates the coherence of this group. In this memo, I break down the rise of the siloviki narrative into multiple parts, focusing on three issues . First, I look at change over time, from the early 1990s to the present . -
Minority Report: Ukraine As Bugbear
MINORITY REPORT: UKRAINE AS BUGBEAR [NB: Note the byline; I began writing this as one of my Minority Report pieces; it’s been in my Work In Progress folder for nearly two years, and an unfinished draft here at emptywheel for 18 months. I left off work on it well before the final Special Counsel’s Report was published. This post’s content has become more relevant even if it’s not entirely complete, needing more meat in some areas, and now requiring the last two-plus years of fossil fuel-related developments and events related to the U.S.- Ukraine-Russia triangle after the 2016 U.S. general election. /~Rayne] This post looks at the possibility that the hacking of U.S. election system and events affecting the election’s outcome are part of a much larger picture — one in which NATO figures large, and the future of energy figures even larger. One could attribute Russian attempts at hacking and influencing the 2016 general election to retaliation for the CIA’s involvement in Ukraine, or to a personal vendetta against former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton with regard to Ukraine ahead of the Maidan revolt, or to rousing anti-Putin sentiment in Russia: … Five years ago, he blamed Secretary of State Hillary Clinton for the anti- Kremlin protests in Moscow’s Bolotnaya Square. “She set the tone for some of our actors in the country and gave the signal,” Putin said. “They heard this and, with the support of the U.S. State Department, began active work.” (No evidence was provided for the accusation.) … But after looking at the mission and history of NATO, the integral role of natural gas to Europe’s industry and continuity, Ukraine’s role as a conduit for Russian gas to European states, one might come to a very different conclusion.