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Trump Struggles in Polls Despite Impacts President Is Revamping Taxes, Obamacare, Regs, but He’S Not Getting Credit from Wary Voters by BRIAN A

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Trump Struggles in Polls Despite Impacts President Is Revamping Taxes, Obamacare, Regs, but He’S Not Getting Credit from Wary Voters by BRIAN A V23, N18 Thursday, Dec. 21, 2017 Trump struggles in polls despite impacts President is revamping taxes, Obamacare, regs, but he’s not getting credit from wary voters By BRIAN A. HOWEY INDIANAPOLIS – President Trump was on the cusp of signing his first major congressional victory with the final tax reform vote on Wednesday, but he has not convinced Americans of his leadership qualities. The NBC/Wall Street Journal Poll on Tuesday showed that only 36% would vote to reelect the president, down from the 46% of the vote he won in chunk, 38 percent, say they’re dead set on voting against 2016’s epic upset. the GOP commander-in-chief, with an additional 14% The poll found that just 18% of those surveyed saying that they’ll probably vote for the Democrat on the believe that they will “definitely” support Trump if he runs in the next presidential election, with another 18% saying Continued on page 3 that they’ll “probably” choose him. “But a significant Speaker Ryan and Messer By MARK SOUDER FORT WAYNE – Over the last week, rumors began to surface that House Speaker Paul Ryan might retire. In Politico, the suggestion wasn’t subtle. Their featured magazine piece was headlined: “Paul Ryan Sees His Wild Washington Journey Coming “There were 116 women learn- to An End.” The piece did not ing how to run for office, if they leave any wiggle room. “Ryan has made it known to some choose to do so. At the end of the of his closest confidants that day we trained over 1,000 peo- this will be his final term as speaker.” Before discussing the ple.” impact further, let me unpack - Indiana Democrat Chairman that statement: 1.) An assertion that bold John Zody, in the HPI Inter- (i.e. no “might be” or “possi- bly”), in the middle of conten- view, page 12 tious Washington, can discredit Page 2 a publication if not rooted in any truth. stated, both tax and welfare reform In other words, Politico is fairly certain pass before the end of 2018. of its source(s). Speaker Ryan is only 47 years 2.) It means they likely old. He certainly is a potential future have several sources which could be president of the United States. While anything from overhearing people hardly poor, enhanced by the rela- in the restroom or at a restaurant to tive wealth of his wife’s family, means a staffer, member, or lobbyist. The that he doesn’t need to make a big assertion doesn’t claim to be a direct salary lobbying, but some extra cash source. is always nice. The Ryans’ children Howey Politics Indiana 3.) It could have been a trial are 15, 14 and 12. Having more time WWHowey Media, LLC 405 balloon leaked by the speaker’s office to enjoy their high school years has Massachusetts Ave., Suite as a “head’s up people, at some point probably crossed his mind, as it does 300 Indianapolis, IN 46204 this is going to happen” or even as a every elected official. If you want a threat to get people in line for the tax normal family life, don’t run for Con- www.howeypolitics.com and appropriations debates. In other gress. It is like being in the military or words, he’s getting tired of political other jobs that require sacrifice for the Brian A. Howey, Publisher Groundhog Day. greater good. Mark Schoeff Jr., Washington Then, in the tangled world I believe it was somewhere Jack E. Howey, Editor of media and politics, Speaker Ryan between a trial balloon and a threat. more or less confirmed that it could But if he does retire before or after Mary Lou Howey, Editor be his last term. (Note I used “could the elections of 2018, it could poten- Mark Curry, photography be.”) He did that with the strong tially have a major impact on Hoosiers denial of an assertion Subscriptions not made. The Hill, another influential po- HPI, HPI Daily Wire $599 litical newspaper read HPI Weekly, $350 by political insiders, Ray Volpe, Account Manager this past Tuesday car- 317.602.3620 ried a headline: “Paul email: [email protected] Ryan refutes rumors of early retirement from House.” Contact HPI A “dismissive” [email protected] Ryan told reporters at a news conference Howey’s cell: 317.506.0883 after a closed-door meeting with Mike Pence and Luke Messer. It also Washington: 202.256.5822 House Republicans that “I’m not going could further cause Republican chaos. Business Office: 317.602.3620 anywhere anytime soon.” It was the It is not like President Trump or Sen. extraordinarily political useful “partial Mitch McConnell provide leadership © 2017, Howey Politics denial” complete with the wonderful with specific issue detail. They like word “soon.” to modify the initial proposals of the Indiana. All rights reserved. Synonyms for “soon” include House Republicans (i.e. Ryan). Photocopying, Internet forward- shortly, presently, in the near future, In other words, further inertia ing, faxing or reproducing in in a moment, in an instant, any min- and conflict only would help Sen. any form, whole or part, is a ute, any day, and “in the twinkling of Joe Donnelly and the challengers to violation of federal law without an eye.” Personally, I don’t think he incumbent Indiana Republican con- was using “soon” like the Bible does gressmen. This is how trends become permission from the publisher. about the second coming of Christ. tsunamis. Paul Ryan is savvy politi- I have known Paul Ryan cian. He knows the resignation talk since we were both staffers in the complicates things. If he goes ahead, Senate. He’s always been too focused he may have already concluded that on issues to obsess over his political in the current situation a tsunami is future, personal life and other such inevitable. Or more likely, he has now mundane things, but, that said, of publicly stated that if the present course he thinks about all those things erratic nature of the Trump adminis- especially if, as the Politico article tration continues combined with the Page 3 internal House divides and senatorial inertia, that he is any particular “idea” leadership and the Republican leader- leaving because he’s tired of being the fireman and getting ship has an intellectual vacuum if Ryan leaves. So, while blamed for the fires. this could be a problem if Messer sought the post, if his A departure by Ryan would likely help him in a opponent was McCarthy, it would not be crippling. Majority future race for the presidency. He converted the policies Leader McCarthy is a listener, a solid and thoughtful guy, of the Trump administration, or the but so far hasn’t demonstrated that he is a Ryan “Trump-Pence administration” which type. is what it will be in future politics as Conference Chairman Messer could also Mike Pence becomes a top presi- run into a “Trump” problem, as Congressman dential contender, as best he could. Rokita likes to raise. Trump, and Steve Bannon, If the Trump-Pence administration viewed Ryan negatively, so likely would prefer is viewed positively by Republicans someone who is more a part of the Trump cheer- in the future, Speaker Ryan helped leading squad. The conference likely does not its start. If it blows up, Ryan got out favor such a person, but might accept someone perhaps in time. who hasn’t mused aloud about Trump’s shortcom- Since Ryan is only 47 ings. In other words Rokita, unlike Messer, is not (Pence is 58), after 2018 Ryan could even in any internal speaker discussion. McCarthy wait out six more years of Trump and eight years of Pence has been more discreet about the president. Furthermore, (2032), and still be only 62. Vice President Pence will be Ryan’s statement that it wouldn’t be “soon” suggests that 61 when Trump-Pence runs for a second term. it won’t occur before Senate filing deadlines in Indiana. The more direct impact could be on Conference Messer’s calculations would have so many Chairman Luke Messer. The two elected leaders above variables – when does Ryan leave, what are my chances him, Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy and Whip Steve of moving up the leadership ladder, can I at least win the Scalise, are already internally scrambling to secure mov- Senate primary, is Donnelly beatable – that unless he just ing up one slot. The wild card is Patrick McHenry, the chief wants out of the Senate race, he likely will not reverse deputy whip. That position is always under-estimated in course on the race. One can also get the feeling that leadership fights. For example, Denny Hastert was chief we have some sort of Wabash College “king-of-the-hill” deputy whip. Eric Cantor was chief deputy whip. Often the match going on between Rokita and Messer. Or, in political chief deputy is the best headcounter in the caucus. parlance, same fight only now with real political bullets. I I sought to have McHenry as my subcommittee think Messer stays in. vice chairman when he was a rambunctious freshman As for Speaker Ryan, I think he will not seek re- congressman. He remains a tremendous, though more election if he thinks the continuing disorder is going to rip nuanced, in-fighter. McCarthy and Scalise would want him apart the party and cost the Republicans the majority no running the whip organization. So, likely, would the Repub- matter what he does. I think the divisions are nearly im- lican members. possible to fix. And if men like Paul Ryan and Mike Pence In other words, the only route up the ladder for cannot do it, I don’t know of anyone who can.
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