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2019 Economic Report

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2019 Economic Report 2019 Table of Contents PERSPECTIVE –TRENDS OF NOTE PERSPECTIVE – TRENDS OF NOTE ...........................3-5 LIMITATIONS............................................................................. 6 YEAR IN REVIEW AND OUTLOOK ......................... 7-13 Macroeconomic Indicators BC Real GDP Growth Rate 2017/18, Exchange Rate, Unemployment Rate Infrastructure and Development Building Permits, Housing Starts, Infrastructure Investment, Major Infrastructure Projects BUSINESS ENVIRONMENT & INVESTMENT ATTRACTION ...............................14-17 Number of Businesses, Insolvency, Business Formations Skilled and Entrepreneurial Immigration PNP Applications, Skills Immigration, Entrepreneur Immigration POPULATION AND LABOUR FORCE .................18-22 n behalf of VIEA and the Population Growth, Population Distribution, Labour Economic Report Committee, I am pleased Force, Employment Rate, Participation by Region and to introduce the 2019 State of the Island Age, Employment by Industry, Share of Employment by Sector on VI and in BC Economic Report or, as we commonly call it, SOTIER. This year marks the fifth annual INDUSTRY ANALYSIS ...................................................23-44 Oedition of SOTIER and it is now established Tourism as a must read in the business and investor Visitor Indicators and Ferry Traffic communities. Manufacturing Distribution of Businesses SOTIER was first published in 2015 with a Aquaculture & Agriculture goal of providing data, analysis and insight Shellfish and Finfish Licenses, BC Aquaculture specific to Vancouver Island. The intent was Production, Distribution of Agrifoods Businesses to find reliable, repeatable data that would 2019 EDITION Island Liquor - Crafting a New Industry allow us to identify trends in the Island Forestry economy through the years. We continue Distribution of Businesses, Employment, Timber to seek new, relevant data and you will see Processing Facilities, Product and Log Cargo Volumes, some of that reflected in this year’s report. Published in Canada by Harvest Volumes The report complements the successful VANCOUVER ISLAND Coast Forest Sector Revitalization - Positioning for Long ECONOMIC ALLIANCE Vancouver Island Economic Summit put on Term Success (VIEA) annually by VIEA. High Technology Prepared for VIEA by Distribution of Businesses This year’s report remains true to those MNP Island Tech original ideas and goals, providing what Printing Education is now the usual data on the economy HEMLOCK PRINTERS Post-Secondary International Enrollments by Regional and demographics of the region and the Districts and on Vancouver Island communities. As you read through it, Design & Layout you will realise that Vancouver Island BLACKBERRY COST OF LIVING & AFFORDABILITY .................45-50 CREATIVE Housing-Benchmark, Living Wages, Median Wage Rates continues to be a wonderful place to live work and play, but we still have areas for Homelessness - A Social & Economic Crisis Copyright improvement and new opportunities to VIEA 2019 IN CLOSING ............................................................................. 51 nurture and grow. We trust you will find All rights reserved. this year’s report insightful and thought provoking. $195.00 CANADA ISBN 978-1-7751480-0-5 Following global and national trends, the BC economy experienced more moderate growth in 2018, but remained one of the 2 OCTOBER 2019 www.viea.ca STATE OF THE ISLAND ECONOMIC REPORT 3 PERSPECTIVE –TRENDS OF NOTE strongest economies in Canada. On the Island, (and eventually much more…) has been a major infrastructure projects such as the huge success. We look forward to reaching a McKenzie Interchange, John Hart Generating point where we will have enough data to start Station and Kennedy Hill Safety Improvements quantifying the impact. VIEA is the first non- offset contractions in the forestry and housing governmental organization to be awarded sectors. While the headline numbers show Foreign Trade Zone (FTZ) designation and continued increase in new businesses being Vancouver Island is the first regional FTZ. As formed and fewer bankruptcies, there are this initiative matures, we hope to be in position concerning signs in the first half of 2019 as to gather data on import/export activity specific business formations slowed and bankruptcies to the Island. increased compared to the first half of 2018. The labour market in the region boasts the lowest Indigenous business continues to move forward regional unemployment rate in the province. on the Island as numerous First Nations The tight labour market is a driver for have created development corporations. continued migration to the Island and that While anecdotal information exists regarding migration is the main driver of population partnerships and new ventures in various growth. Population on the Island continues to sectors such as the Huu-ay-aht Nation and grow at about the provincial average and that Western Forest Products joint ownership and growth was fairly evenly distributed across management of TFL 44, and Nuu chah nulth communities. Migrants to the region come Seafood LP becoming the major shareholder mainly from other parts of the province and, to of St. Jean’s Cannery and Smokehouse, we a lesser degree, other provinces. An interesting are working to engage First Nations in a data trend is the shift in working age population to collection process so that we can include those in mid-career (Generation X) and newer accurate information on the Island’s Indigenous entrants to the workforce in younger age economy in the Economic Report. groups (Post-millennials). In an effort to make this report accessible to Feature articles in this year’s report highlight anyone in the world interested in our Island the burgeoning local beer, wine and spirits economy, 2018 saw SOTIER made available for industry and some of the challenges it faces. sale through Amazon. We will continue to make We have a feature piece on the changing the report available through this channel. nature of the coast forest industry as another VIEA is dependent on sponsors and volunteers revitalization initiative has been introduced. for its success and the SOTIER publication This piece also introduces a new VIEA initiative is a result of great sponsors and dedicated focused on greater use of wood waste. The member volunteers. I would like to thank contribution of the tech sector to the Island MNP for their continued support of SOTIER, economy and understanding what a tech job not just financially, but also with the time and is illustrated in our editorial on the sector. An energy of Susan Mowbray and her team. The article on the growing problem of homelessness production of SOTIER is a year-long endeavour and an appeal to the business community to overseen by a steering committee and I would be more involved is also included in this year’s like to thank George Hanson, Po Wan, Shannon report. Baikie, Joe Cristiano, Susan Mowbray and Peter van Dongen for their thoughtful and active In addition to producing the Summit and the participation on this year’s committee. Economic Report, VIEA continues to work on various initiatives to grow and develop Pip White the communities and economy of Vancouver CHAIR, 2019 SOTIER Committee Island. For instance, both the Island Good and FTZVI initiatives are directly attributable to the data collected for the first Economic Report in 2015 which showed need and potential for more goods production to strengthen the Island economy. The Island Good program to promote Island produced foods and beverages 4 OCTOBER 2019 www.viea.ca STATE OF THE ISLAND ECONOMIC REPORT 5 A YEAR IN REVIEW This report is provided for information LIMITATIONS purposes and is intended for general guidance only. It should not be regarded as comprehensive or a substitute for personalized, professional advice. We have relied upon the completeness, accuracy and fair presentation of all information and data obtained from public sources, believed to be reliable. The accuracy and reliability of the findings and opinions expressed in the presentation are conditional upon the completeness, accuracy and fair presentation of the information underlying them. As a result, we caution readers not to rely upon any findings or opinions expressed as complete and disclaim any liability to any party who relies upon them as such. The findings and opinions expressed in fter a strong start to the year, the presentation constitute judgments as Canadian economic growth slowed in the of the date of the presentation, and are second half of 2018 and annual economic subject to change without notice. MNP is growth fell to 1.9% from 3% in 2017.1 under no obligation to advise of any change AMuch of the slowdown can be attributed brought to its attention which would alter to weakening global economic conditions those findings or opinions. The reader must due to escalating trade tensions, continued understand that our analysis is based upon weakness in the oil and gas sector and projections, founded on past events giving cooling of the domestic housing market. an expectation of certain future events. Future events are not guaranteed to follow Against the backdrop of slowing economic past patterns and results may vary, even growth, the BC economy moderated but significantly. Accordingly, we express no remained among the strongest in Canada. assurance as to whether the projections BC benefited from infrastructure projects underlying the economic and financial in Northern BC, while a slowdown in analysis will be achieved.
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