Bulgaria Political Briefing: General Parliamentary Elections for the 45Th Ordinary National Assembly of the Republic of Bulgaria Evgeniy Kandilarov

ISSN: 2560-1601

Vol. 39, No. 1 (BG)

April 2021

Bulgaria political briefing: General Parliamentary Elections for the 45th Ordinary National Assembly of the Republic of Bulgaria Evgeniy Kandilarov

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General Parliamentary Elections for the 45th Ordinary National Assembly of the Republic of Bulgaria

Summary

General Parliamentary elections were held in Bulgaria on April 4th. The results show that the ruling right-wing party GERB again won the most votes and came out on top in the rankings. However, the future government is extremely unclear, as GERB does not have a majority to form an independent government. According to the election results, in the parliament enter five other parties and coalitions that have previously declared themselves in opposition to the ruling party so far with its leader Boyko Borissov. On a second place with the most votes in parliament enter a completely new party called "There is such a people", created by the famous showman, TV presenter and singer Slavi Trifonov which has a categorical position that it will not form a coalition with any of the parties that have been present in the parliament so far - GERB, the Bulgarian Socialist Party and the Movement for Rights and Freedoms (MRF; primarily representing the country's Turkish minority). The biggest loss in these elections was suffered by the Bulgarian Socialist Party, which became the third political force and lost much of the support of its voters and respectively its influence in the parliament.

On April 4, Bulgaria held general parliamentary elections for MPs in the 45th Ordinary National Assembly of the Republic of Bulgaria. Preliminary data from the Central Election Commission show that out of the 6,588,372 eligible voters, about 47% -48% ultimately voted, despite the pandemic and bad weather. Although lower than in the previous elections (in 2017 the turnout was 54%), it is comparable to those in 2014 and 2013 (48% and 51%). Apocalyptic predictions of very low activity did not come true. Bulgaria’s Central Election Commission (CEC) on April 6 announced the preliminary election results. According to them, 6 parties and coalition succeed to cross the 4% barrier for entering the Parliament. Prime Minister Boiko Borissov’s centre-right wing party GERB received the largest share of the vote , but the distribution of seats shows that this coalition does not have a majority and this raises the big question for the formation of a cabinet. The results show that a broad coalition is needed to create a new government. GERB-Union of Democratic Forces electoral coalition

1 had received the most votes - over 800 thousand. They are followed by the newly established party of the popular in Bulgaria showman, TV presenter and singer Slavi Trifonov. The name of his party is “There is such people”. This party have received about 546 thousand votes. In third place is the Bulgarian Socialist Party with 460 thousand votes. The votes for the Movement for Rights and Freedoms (MRF; primarily representing the country's Turkish minority) are 311 thousand. On the fifth place is the opposition and hostile to Borissov centre- right coalition called Democratic Bulgaria. It received about 293 thousand votes. The last coalition entering the Parliament with 146 thousand people that voted for it is the so called “Stand up, Mafia out”. This is also a newly formed centre-left force formed by some of the leaders of the civil protests against Borissov's government, which lasted more than three months last summer. A total of 180,000 Bulgarians voted abroad. According to the CEC, this is a record, with the previous highest achievement being 153,000 votes. The most votes are from Germany - 33 thousand, followed by Great Britain 32 thousand and Turkey - 22 thousand. "There is such a people" and "Democratic Bulgaria" received the most votes from abroad. At the same time, in the ballot, 47,753 people said they did not support anyone. In percentages, this results means the following: a little over 26% and the first political force for GERB-UDF, 17.8% for “There are such people” and around15% for BSP. The MRF has a little over 10%, and Democratic Bulgaria takes 9.54% of the vote. For “Stand Up, Mafia out” the votes are close to 4.8%. In terms of mandates, the 240 MP’s parliament looks like this: 75 deputies for GERB-UDF, “There is such people” with 51 MPs, BSP with 43. The deputies of MRF are 30, of Democratic Bulgaria - 27, and of “Stand up, Mafia get out” - 14. According to the results the IMRO – Bulgarian National Movement of Krassimir Karakachanov, which was a junior party to GERB in the government, hasn’t been able to pass the 4% barrier to enter Parliament. At the moment, the electoral results can clearly outline two groups of parties - the winners and the losers. For GERB, the party that has ruled the country for more than 10 years in one combination or another since 2009, these elections have brought one good and two bad news. The good news is that it is again the first political force - with a big difference over the second. This result is impressive (and somewhat difficult to explain) given the collapse in trust in the party last year amid spectacular scandals, mass protests and its apparent failure to tackle the coronavirus crisis. The first bad news is that compared to the previous elections, GERB received about 8 percent less - a difference measured by nearly 400,000 votes that the party lost. This is the party's weakest result in parliamentary elections in its existence. There are several main

2 factors for this, and it remains to be seen which of them was most important. In the first place, these are the protests related to corruption, which in practice made the election campaign over nine months. Secondly - the pandemic and (not) dealing with it. Apart from national peculiarities, this is a trend that is observed all over Europe - after the initial bonus of trust, with the continuation of the anti-pandemic measures (no matter how intensive they are), the society exhausts its patience towards the government. More unpleasant for GERB, however, is probably the second bad news - it will no longer have anyone and how to govern as before, since almost all other participants in the 45th National Assembly declare that they do not want to form a coalition with it. The newly formed party "There is Such a People" became a second political force, surpassing all predictions before the elections. Undoubtedly, Slavi Trifonov's party is the big surprise of this election. The party was created last year during the anti-corruption protests. At the moment this party does not have clear ideological profile and is able to form a coalition with literally everyone. At the same time, however, the party leadership stated categorically that it would not form a coalition with any of the so-called "status quo parties", which according to "There is such a people" are namely GERB, BSP and MRF. This mean that Slavi Trifonov’s party may enter in coalition with the other two forces that emerged from the civil protests: Democratic Bulgaria, led by pro-European reformist politician Hristo Ivanov and “Stand up, Mafia out”, led by former national Ombudsman Maya Manolova. However, their aggregate force is not enough to form a majority in the 240-seat parliament. The second place also guarantees “There is such people” a second term for forming a government if GERB fail to form such, according to the constitutional procedure. This means that they will decide whether there will be new elections or not, because in case the first mandate holder (GERB) and the second (TSN) fail to form a government, it is 99% certain that the third one will not succeed without the participation of the first two parties. The most significant loss is suffered by the Bulgarian Socialist Party, which, despite the fact that it has been the leading parliamentary opposition so far, now remains the third political force. The party led by Cornelia Ninova received its weakest result since 1989. The BSP lost almost half a million votes compared to 2017 and is 11 percent behind the formal winner - GERB. However, its ranking in third place is more humiliating, after Slavi Trifonov's "There is such a people", which managed to attract hundreds of thousands more voters. According to analysts, this result for the BSP is due to many factors. On the one hand, in the last year the party has been torn apart by internal contradictions and struggles between different party fractions. On the other hand, the party lost the initiative and failed to convince the people protesting against the government that the BSP was a real alternative to the GERB government.

What follows from now on? The formula of the future government remains unclear. At this stage, it seems impossible to form a majority in the future parliament. If everyone keeps their election promises, it is absolutely certain that a government will not be formed. If they do not keep their election promises is another matter. At the moment it is guaranteed that at least three parties will be needed to form a government, and the decisive factor will certainly be “There is Such a People.” According to the country's constitution, the president must schedule the first session of the 45th parliament by May 4th. After the first sitting of the parliament, consultations on forming a government between the various political forces begin. The president must then hand over a mandate to form a government to the first political force in parliament. In case of failure, the mandate goes to the second political force. If it does not form a government, the president gives a mandate to a party of his choice. If it also fails to form a government, the head of state dissolves the National Assembly, sets a date for new elections and appoints a caretaker cabinet. According to many experts, in this situation such an option is not excluded at all. Although Borissov called on his opponents to work with him to form a broad-based governing coalition, most political groups have already rejected the idea of cooperating with GERB. In conclusion, according to analysts, the elections turned to be a slap in the face of the forces which were represented in the outgoing parliament, especially for Borissov’s GERB and its main opposition BSP, who had hoped for much better results. At least five things have changed after elections - for the first time since its establishment, the GERB party and its leader Boyko Borissov are in a weak position; three new political forces enter the National Assembly and replace almost half of its members; the three major political parties - GERB, BSP, MRF are no longer the three major political forces; nationalists remain outside parliament for the first time in 16 years; Bulgarians around the world not only vote more than before, but are already a key factor in the end result. Nevertheless, the future governance of the country remains completely unclear, which makes many experts to foresee a period of political turbulence.