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ANALYSE DEMOCRACY AND HUMAN RIGHTS The victory of GERB in the elections enables the party POLIT-BAROMETER to complete its governing mandate. Year 19 Issue 4 October – November, 2019 BSP has made a break- through in some regional cit- ies of the country, but it can- Georgi Karasimeonov (Ed.) not yet be seen as an alternative for a ruling party. Nationalist formations achieved lower results after the division. FRIEDRICH-EBERT-STIFTUNG – POLIT-BAROMETER DEMOCRACY AND HUMAN RIGHTS POLIT-BAROMETER Year 19 Issue 4 October – November, 2019 CONTENTS Contents 1. THE POLITICAL SITUATION 2 2. THE POLITICAL PARTIES AND THE RESULTS OF THE LOCAL ELECTIONS 4 2.1 GERB ........................................................................................................................... 4 2.2 BSP .............................................................................................................................. 5 2.3 MRF ............................................................................................................................. 5 2.4 Nationalist formations .......................................................................................... 5 2.5 “Volya” (“Will” in Bulgarian) ............................................................................... 6 2.6 Democratic Bulgaria .............................................................................................. 6 3. CONCLUSIONS AND FORECASTS 7 1 FRIEDRICH-EBERT-STIFTUNG – POLIT-BAROMETER 1 THE POLITICAL SITUATION The election campaign for the local elections took place in a the president has the right to do, it would mean a new tense domestic political environment. Despite this, with few procedure, or a procedure with other candidates. exceptions, a normal tone between political parties and can- didates for positions in local government was maintained. The first time President Radev commented on Geshev’s The election campaign was generally somewhat low-key in election was on the day of the first round of local elections, terms of election events and political advertising. The rea- when he answered questions from journalists after exer- sons for this could be found in the drastic cut in party sub- cising his right to vote. He said he would make a decision sidy, with only GERB being able to afford a more expensive only after carefully examining all the documents and would campaign. A campaign which was particularly active was not submit to pressure from any side. Radev attacked Prime that of GERB in Sofia, where Yordanka Fandakova relied on Minister Borisov for having an enormous influence over the a diverse campaign with a strong presence on Facebook, SJC through the parliamentary quota, as he was obliged to where dozens of advertising videos could be seen. This ac- make sure there was a contest with the nomination of a tivity was fully justified in view of the high political stakes second candidate by the Minister of Justice. According to in the capital, where for the first time in 14 years there was Radev, Borisov cannot pretend that he has nothing to do real competition and expectations that there would be a with the election of the attorney general. Borisov dismissed run-off turned out to be well-founded. these allegations, saying that Radev was involved in the election campaign, indeed on the very day of the vote with Protests against the election of Ivan Geshev as the new at- a speech against the leader of the largest party. Borisov torney general of the country continued throughout the said BSP also has three representatives in the SJC, elected election campaign. The election took place 3 days before after having been proposed by the party. the local elections, with Geshev supported as expected by 20 members of the SJC - the whole of the public prosecu- With the exception of Democratic Bulgaria, political parties tor’s office, plus the members of the parliamentary quo- refrained from evaluating Geshev’s election. GERB said they ta in the panel. There were four judges against Geshev’s were not interfering in the procedure and that this was election, selected by the professional quota, including the the job of the SJC. Before the first round of local elections, President of the Supreme Court of Cassation Lozan Pan- BSP leader Korneliya Ninova nevertheless declared that “a ov. According to a number of observers, Geshev’s hearing one-horse race is not a race.” She said BSP had warned of was not convincing. He purportedly once again allowed the dangers posed by the adopted judicial reform in 2015, himself to give assessments of certain media, non-gov- when the SJC was split into two colleges. ernmental organisations and political forces, showing bias and prejudice. According to Lozan Panov, Geshev Before the run-off in the mayoral elections in the capital, does not have the necessary professional skills and that Maya Manolova announced that she stood on the side of this could be seen from his workload as a prosecutor over protesters against Ivan Geshev and urged President Radev the last 10 years. Panov pointed out that Geshev had not not to issue a decree for appointment. In this move many dealt with cases of practical legal complexity, and exclud- saw an attempt by Manolova to win right-wing votes be- ed the case of the Corporate Commercial Bank, as it was fore the run-off. still in the judicial phase and could not be taken into ac- count when considering the results of the candidate. At- The results of the local elections showed that at the na- torney General Sotir Tsatsarov attacked Lozan Panov by tional level, GERB is the first political force in a large num- allowing himself personal attacks and expressed doubts ber of municipal councils which have always been con- about transparency and his choice. sidered as an indicator of party vote. As for the mayoral elections - the political map of the country will be much Protesting citizens and a number of non-governmental or- more colourful, thanks to the large number of run-offs, ganisations urged the president not to issue a decree ap- including in a number of regional cities, which in itself pointing Geshev, and to refer to the Constitutional Court was a prerequisite for a protest anti-GERB vote that unit- to clarify whether, if the candidature was returned, which ed politically diverse voters. 2 THE POLITICAL SITUATION Turnout for the first round of local elections was about local elections, the mayor of the Black Sea municipality of 48% nationwide, slightly lower than 4 years ago. Among Nessebar and four candidates for municipal councillors were the regional cities of the country the lower turnout in Var- arrested on suspicion of vote-buying. What was paradoxical na was striking - 39%. about the case was that the citizens of Nessebar protested in support of the mayor and, although he remained in cus- The election for mayor of Sofia was with the highest stake tody, he won in the first-round election, receiving in excess and intrigue after the candidacy of former Ombudsman of 60% of the vote. The mayor-elect and the four municipal Maya Manolova. As expected, Yordanka Fandakova and councillors elected were subject to the most severe pre-trial Maya Manolova made it to the run-off, with the differ- measures of “detention in custody”. ence between the two being nearly 10% in favour of the incumbent mayor of the capital. At the elections in Sofia, Another major distortion of the vote, especially in smaller the big surprise in the first round was the result of the inde- settlements, is to add people with temporary residences to pendent candidate Boris Bonev from the civic association the electoral rolls, who have nothing to do with the set- “Save Sofia”. Bonev received nearly 11% of the actual may- tlement, in order to vote for a specific candidate. This is oral vote and almost as much as an independent candidate a phenomenon that has already been observed in several for municipal councillor. “Save Sofia” has been particularly local elections. active over the last year, showing shoddy repairs to Sofia residents that have boosted public sentiment towards city Something that remains a significant weakness is the governance. Boris Bonev appealed to younger and educat- poor preparation of the members of the section elec- ed voters, with both left and right-wing voters opting for tion commissions, as evidenced by the huge number of him, as well as many people who do not normally vote in wrong protocols. Even for the elections in Sofia over elections. Boris Bonev conducted an active campaign on 90% of the protocols were wrong. In addition, these social media, and stood out in the election debate in BTV, elections saw a record number of invalid ballots - over which had all the main contenders for the post of mayor. 15% in the first round. All this casts doubt on the fair- ness of the election process. In this connection there Yordanka Fandakova won 49.9% of the run-off vote in So- was an announcement by President Rumen Radev, who fia against 45.1% for Manolova, with 4.9% of voters say- stated that he would convene a meeting of the Min- ing they did not support anyone. Manolova’s headquarters istry of Interior, the Central Election Commission and said the difference between the two was below 20,000 the parties in order to identify measures for overcom- votes and that there had been abuse of the electoral pro- ing these defects in the election process. One possible cess and vote-buying, so they would request a cancellation step, according to the president, would be to introduce of the elections in the capital. Manolova said that support- machine voting, which had been implemented, but was ing her were citizens who wanted change, and so she will removed for these local elections by the GERB majority. decide how to retain this public energy. This message could Radev urged citizens to vote en masse in the second be seen as an appeal for a new political project. round, so that the weight of the purchased and con- trolled vote could be overcome.

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