Tajikistan by Raissa Muhutdinova

Tajikistan by Raissa Muhutdinova Capital: Dushanbe Population: 6.5 million GDP/capita: US$1,314 Ethnic Groups: Tajik (79.9%), Uzbek (15.3%), Russian (1.1%), Kyrgyz (1.1%), other (2.6%) The economic and social data on this page were taken from the following sources: GDP/capita, Population: Transition Report 2006: Finance in Transition (London, UK: European Bank for Re-construction and Development, 2006). Ethnic Groups: CIA World Fact Book 2007 (Washington, D.C.: Central Intelligence Agency, 2007). Nations in Transit Ratings and Averaged Scores 1999 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Electoral Process 5.50 5.25 5.25 5.25 5.75 6.00 6.25 6.50 Civil Society 5.25 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 4.75 5.00 5.00 Independent Media 5.75 5.50 5.75 5.75 5.75 6.00 6.25 6.25 Governance* 6.25 6.00 6.00 6.00 5.75 n/a n/a n/a National Democratic 6.25 Governance n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a 6.00 6.25 Local Democratic 5.75 Governance n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a 5.75 5.75 Judicial Framework 5.75 and Independence 5.75 5.75 5.75 5.75 5.75 5.75 5.75 Corruption 6.00 6.00 6.00 6.00 6.25 6.25 6.25 6.25 Democracy Score 5.75 5.58 5.63 5.63 5.71 5.79 5.93 5.96 * With the 2005 edition, Freedom House introduced separate analysis and ratings for national democratic governance and local democratic governance to provide readers with more detailed and nuanced analysis of these two important subjects. NOTE: The ratings reflect the consensus of Freedom House, its academic advisers, and the authorofthis report. The opinions expressed in this report are those of the author. The ratings are based on a scale of1to7, with 1 representing the highest level of democratic progress and 7 the lowest. The Democracy Score is an aver- age of ratings for the categories tracked in a given year. 684 Nations in Transit 2007 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY n 2006, Tajikistan culminated 15 years of independence and nearly a decade of societal and political peace brought about by a June 1997 accord signed in Moscow between the government and the armed opposition. The bloody civil Iwar (1992–1997), which entailed the loss of roughly 50,000 lives, massive damage to infrastructure and the economy, and the displacement of up to one million people within and outside the country, is undoubtedly the lowest point in Tajikistan’s contemporary history. On the other hand, the peace accord brokered by the United Nations, Russia, and Iran and the consequent achievement of substantial stability and macroeconomic growth are among Tajikistan’s major achievements in its short history as an independent state. There remains room for progress, however. For though in the first half dozen years of its independence, some amount of political pluralism was achieved as required in the signing of the peace accord, in the past few years there has been little real progress in furthering the democratization process, political openness, and human rights. The most important event of 2006 was the presidential election heldon November 6. As was predicted by all observers, the incumbent, President Emomali Rahmonov—who changed his name to Rahmon in 2007 during the editing of this report—saw a landslide victory. Although five political parties fielded candidates in the race, the major opposition parties—Islamic Renaissance Party, Democratic Party, and Social Democratic Party—either refused to participate actively in the election or boycotted the process altogether as a sign of protest. Resource-rich and petrol-poor, Tajikistan’s rough geography has prevented the ready processing and export of a variety of commodities, and despite the improving economy, the country remains largely dependent on foreign aid and investment; and substantial increases in the latter, especially from Russia and China for infra- structural projects, were seen during 2006. However, increased attention to Central Asia, including from Western states after 9/11, though encouraging, has not come with much improvement in the capacity of government structures and the nascent civil society of Tajikistan. And though the government made some efforts in for- mulating a new anticorruption agency toward the end of 2006, no real progress in combating the all-encompassing scourge of corruption has been made. National Democratic Governance. Despite semblances of political pluralism, opposition voices have been largely stymied for the past few years. Genuine political parties have not been formed, and during the November 2006 presidential election, key opposition parties refused to nominate candidates or participate actively in the election. President Rahmon has, in turn, taken his third-term victory at the polls as a mandate for a stronger presidency. He has continued to implement a de facto Tajikistan 685 patronage and clan-based policy when staffing his cabinet and various positions of power throughout the republic. The Parliament remains largely a rubber-stamp entity, with many of its members either appointed or elected through an uncompetitive semi-democratic process. Though the country remains stable and peaceful, given the lack of pluralism and improvements in the democratization process, underlying frustrations and unspoken dissent are present. Owing to the lack of improvement in political pluralism, genuine engagement, and power sharing, Tajikistan’s score for national democratic governance remains unchanged at 6.25. Electoral Process. The result of the November 6, 2006, presidential election was no surprise as the incumbent, President Rahmon, was well expected to be victorious and in the end reportedly took nearly 80 percent of the vote. Despite the genuine popularity of his administration (based on anecdotal evidence that his administration is associated with peace and economic development), Rahmon made sure that real rivals to his rule would not be running in the election. The Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE), which sent over 120 election observers to the November election, also determined that despite the peaceful nature of the poll, there were a series of violations mostly related to Tajikistan’s general commitments to democracy under the OSCE 1990 Copenhagen Document. The November 2006 presidential election lacked genuine competitive spirit, with several key parties having chosen not to participate. Though opposition candidates were given limited airspace on radio and television, the government was in near full control of the media, resulting in a disproportionate campaign opportunity for the incumbent. For these reasons, Tajikistan’s rating for electoral process worsens from 6.25 to 6.50. Civil Society. The dynamics of civil society in Tajikistan remained unchanged during 2006. Over 2,500 nongovernmental organizations (NGOs) were thought to be registered, with less than 10 percent active in varying degrees. Furthermore, donor support for programs remained relatively constant, and the government neither allowed free rein to existing groups nor further restricted their activities. A draft law to restrict the activities of NGOs was introduced, but it had yet to be voted on by the end of 2006. Given both the lack of progress in developing a more vibrant civil society in Tajikistan and the government’s distrustful and stagnant attitude toward the activities of this sector in 2006, Tajikistan’s rating for civil society remains unchanged at 5.00. Independent Media. During 2006, the work of independent media in Tajikistan was characterized largely by stagnation, as the government did not engage in any heavy-handed attacks on existing media outlets as in years past. At the same time, it did not allow new independent media to function. During the weeks leading up to the 2006 presidential election, the state media were used heavily as a source of campaign propaganda for the incumbent government candidate, while opposition candidates were nonetheless each given nearly an hour of airtime on radio and television. Fearing repercussions from the authorities, journalists continued 686 Nations in Transit 2007 to generally practice their well-polished skills of self-censorship and avoidance of controversy. Given the stagnant status quo of the media, where practically no outlet was banned for a long period of time and no new independent media outlets were allowed to register, Tajikistan’s rating for independent media remained at 6.25. Local Democratic Governance. Democracy in Tajikistan did not progress in 2006, especially at the subnational province, district, city, town, and jamoat levels. Though overall poverty continues to fall, the country’s economic growth appears primarily to aid citizens in major cities, and an increasing mostly urban-rich/rural- poor income gap has been developing. Cotton farming continues to be a de facto government policy, with thousands of farmers not having control over the types of crops they prefer to grow. Despite the supposedly “strategic” nature of the crop, cotton farmers have far worse living conditions than non-cotton farmers. Given the lack of progress in local and democratic decision making and near nonexistent elections at the subnational levels, Tajikistan’s rating for local democratic governance for 2006 remains unchanged at 5.75. Judicial Framework and Independence. Despite attempts to reform the judicial system, little progress has been achieved in the past few years. In its 2006 report, the UN committee overseeing the Convention Against Torture asked the government to ensure prompt and objective investigations of violations of due process, look into all instances of deaths in custody, shorten the current pretrial detention (doznanie), and establish an independent health examination service aside from those of the Internal Affairs and Justice Ministries. Likewise, the 2005 recommendations of the UN Special Rapporteur on Independence of Judges and Lawyers remain in place including, among other things, Tajikistan’s Office of the Prosecutor must abide by international standards to promote equality of judicial powers in proceedings, for independent legal counsel to be allowed, and the discarding of confessions extracted via torture and abuse.

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