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ARAB LIBERALISM and DEMOCRACY in the MIDDLE EAST a Panel Discussion

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ARAB LIBERALISM and DEMOCRACY in the MIDDLE EAST a Panel Discussion ARAB LIBERALISM AND DEMOCRACY IN THE MIDDLE EAST A Panel Discussion On August 13, 2004, the National Endowment for Democracy (NED) held a forum on Arab Liberalism and Democracy in the Middle East. The following is an edited transcript of the event, as broadcast on C-Span. It is hoped this edited transcript will inspire additional thought, debate, and ideas on the subject. Brief biographies of the participants can be found at the end of the article. information and an underestimate of how Barry Rubin: Our goal today is not difficult it would be to establish a stable, a political discussion but an attempt to democratic regime in Iraq. make an assessment. Making an assessment Let us not make this mistake a requires separating analysis from policy fourth time by overestimating support for recommendations. We have had a real reformists in the Arab world and problem in the study of Arab liberalism underestimating the difficulty they face because the evaluation of the material has because many people think Arab liberals sometimes been so tied in with what people are doing good and necessary things, as want to recommend that the United States well as assuming that the Middle East is--or or the West do, as well as what they would should be--a carbon copy of the West. like to see happen. The kinds of problems I am talking We have now had in recent years about are illustrated by two articles three major situations in the Middle East published in late 2004 in two of the very where people's goals and aspirations have top American newspapers. The first article gotten in the way of their assessment and claimed that Muslims are reassessing the have distorted that analysis. First of those more radical interpretations of Islam, which was the Oslo Peace Process. People wanted are very powerful now, and used as a peace, to believe it could be easily attained, specific example the argument that one and to achieve it. As a result, there was a would get several dozen black-eyed virgins significant overestimate of the Palestinian if one committed a suicide bombing and leadership's willingness to keep its went to heaven. But the entire article commitments and desire to make peace. consisted of an account of a German Next, many people wanted to scholar writing under a pseudonym saying encourage rapprochement between the West that this claim is based on a linguistic and Islam, and so they hoped that terrorism misunderstanding. The researcher is not a would not prove to be a big problem. This Muslim, Arab, or Middle Easterner and his resulted in a significant misestimate of the writing is not even appearing in Arabic or threat of Islamist terrorism internationally. any publication in the region. Indeed, he so After that, there were many people intimidated that he has to write under a who thought that overthrowing Saddam pseudonym. So how does this prove that a Hussein was an obviously good thing, but reassessment is taking place? If one is, this this gave us mistaken intelligence article didn't show it. 20 Middle East Review of International Affairs, Vol. 8, No. 4 (December 2004) Arab Liberalism and Democracy in the Middle East The second article, by an American, this issue. The questions raised here revolve asserted that Arab liberalism has become around issues like "Is democracy very strong and that the reformers wanted impossible for Muslims? Is it impossible for active U.S. help. The article, though the Arab world?" These types of questions passionate and assertive, provided only two are nonsense. They are a waste of time. quotes from actual Arabs. One was from a If we look at the history of the very fine gentleman who stays clear of world, every single society has gone politics; the other was by an individual through centuries of autocratic rule. It is from whom I can bring ten statements in very interesting to compare the Middle East print saying the exact opposite of what he to European history, going back several supposedly believes here. centuries. What we see is that the road of So we must start with and stick with democracy is always very difficult and that the evidence--and the evidence shows that it takes an incredibly long time. In England Arab liberals are weak. If you actually we are talking about centuries. The period survey all the possible literature, it is clear between the French Revolution and the real that they still represent a small minority, not institution of actual democracy in France only on the political scene, not only in was one hundred years. In Germany, to put public opinion, but even in the columns of it mildly, they had a few problems before the newspapers open to running liberal they finally got it right. Russia took a 70- articles. We have done content analysis of year detour through totalitarian newspapers like al-Sharq al-Awsat which Communism. And religious ideas, demonstrates this fact. The question to be institutions, and hierarchies were persistent answered is why Arab liberals are so weak obstacles on the road to democracy in and have to water down their arguments so Europe. much. And the answer here lies in large part So, what we see in the Middle East with the mechanisms through which the is not atypical in any basic way from Arab nationalist regimes, the intellectuals Western history. No special factor who carry that ideology and serve those involving Arabs or Islam is needed to regimes, and the Islamist opposition explain the lack of democracy and social dominate Arab society and discourse. change in the Middle East. On top of this is the fact that there is What is, however, atypical about the a lot more being written by Arab liberals region is that the year on the calendar page who live outside the Middle East. Even is 2004. Other places have already resolved Arab liberals who live inside the Middle the problems that plague the Middle East. East are doing much of their writing in In Latin America, though, much of this English--both in Western publications and process of democratization only took place local English-language newspapers--and are in the 1980s and 1990s, despite the fact that going much further in their views when the area had much more of a foundation for they do write in English as opposed to democratization and a Western-oriented Arabic. culture and religion. This is understandable. I want to The problem is not the essence, make it very clear that I am sympathetic to culture, or theology of the Arab world and their efforts and respect their courage. But Iran but the prevailing political and their struggle becomes all the more ideological system there. It is not that the impressive when one understands how Arab system failed to adapt to modern incredible are the odds they face and their times. It has adapted very well to modern own side's pitifully few assets. times in terms of keeping bad regimes in At this point, I must refer to a side power. Again, there is a parallel to issue that greatly distorts any discussion of European history, Europe in the process of Middle East Review of International Affairs, Vol. 8, No. 4 (December 2004) Rubin, Cofman Wittes and Kubba modernization developed two phenomena These systems--and obviously every called communism and fascism, which country is different in some ways--are very arose as reactions against modernization effective at staying in power. The problem and created incredible problems. Millions is that they are far less effective at bringing of people died in this process in Europe. In higher living standards, economic progress, the Middle East there have been two more freedom, social change and things like parallel phenomena called Arab nationalism that. Repression is only one element of the and Islamism. system and sometimes it is one of the least In the modernization process--which important aspects. For a rough analogy, includes democratization, industrialization, think of the kind of system that existed in individualism, equality for women, the Soviet bloc but even stronger. After all, urbanization, a weakening of religion, the in the Soviet bloc, religion and nationalism development of mass commercial culture, were often opposed to the prevailing and many other phenomena--a long time is regime. In contrast, in the Middle East these needed, obstacles are thrown in the way, are two powerful tools manipulated by the and movements arise which oppose these regime or the Islamist opposition with changes. One of the critical differences in which it has so much in common. the Middle East is that the retrograde In short, Arab liberals are fighting movements have almost completely taken against an incredibly powerful system, over all the political systems, control the well-skilled at staying in power, at economic system, and enjoy hegemony discrediting them, and at manipulating over thought. Groups and classes which symbols. They have a very difficult uphill spearheaded the drive to democracy and battle. liberalization elsewhere in the world-- Given this challenge, how do Arab students, intellectuals, labor unions, and liberals deal with the issues they face? After businesspeople, for example--have been co- all, if they are going to argue for major opted as supporters for the system. So structural reforms and all that entails, they overwhelming is its hegemony and ability must offer alternative explanations and to avoid blame for its failings--especially by solutions for the prevailing issues in their putting them onto foreign scapegoats--that countries. it is very hard to challenge and has What are some of these critical tremendous power to intimidate its critics.
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