ARAB LIBERALISM and DEMOCRACY in the MIDDLE EAST a Panel Discussion

ARAB LIBERALISM AND DEMOCRACY IN THE MIDDLE EAST A Panel Discussion

On August 13, 2004, the National Endowment for Democracy (NED) held a forum on Arab Liberalism and Democracy in the Middle East. The following is an edited transcript of the event, as broadcast on C-Span. It is hoped this edited transcript will inspire additional thought, debate, and ideas on the subject. Brief biographies of the participants can be found at the end of the article.

information and an underestimate of how Barry Rubin: Our goal today is not difficult it would be to establish a stable, a political discussion but an attempt to democratic regime in Iraq. make an assessment. Making an assessment Let us not make this mistake a requires separating analysis from policy fourth time by overestimating support for recommendations. We have had a real reformists in the Arab world and problem in the study of Arab liberalism underestimating the difficulty they face because the evaluation of the material has because many people think Arab liberals sometimes been so tied in with what people are doing good and necessary things, as want to recommend that the United States well as assuming that the Middle East is--or or the West do, as well as what they would should be--a carbon copy of the West. like to see happen. The kinds of problems I am talking We have now had in recent years about are illustrated by two articles three major situations in the Middle East published in late 2004 in two of the very where people's goals and aspirations have top American newspapers. The first article gotten in the way of their assessment and claimed that Muslims are reassessing the have distorted that analysis. First of those more radical interpretations of Islam, which was the Oslo Peace Process. People wanted are very powerful now, and used as a peace, to believe it could be easily attained, specific example the argument that one and to achieve it. As a result, there was a would get several dozen black-eyed virgins significant overestimate of the Palestinian if one committed a suicide bombing and leadership's willingness to keep its went to heaven. But the entire article commitments and desire to make peace. consisted of an account of a German Next, many people wanted to scholar writing under a pseudonym saying encourage rapprochement between the West that this claim is based on a linguistic and Islam, and so they hoped that terrorism misunderstanding. The researcher is not a would not prove to be a big problem. This Muslim, Arab, or Middle Easterner and his resulted in a significant misestimate of the writing is not even appearing in Arabic or threat of Islamist terrorism internationally. any publication in the region. Indeed, he so After that, there were many people intimidated that he has to write under a who thought that overthrowing Saddam pseudonym. So how does this prove that a Hussein was an obviously good thing, but reassessment is taking place? If one is, this this gave us mistaken intelligence article didn't show it.

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The second article, by an American, this issue. The questions raised here revolve asserted that Arab liberalism has become around issues like "Is democracy very strong and that the reformers wanted impossible for Muslims? Is it impossible for active U.S. help. The article, though the Arab world?" These types of questions passionate and assertive, provided only two are nonsense. They are a waste of time. quotes from actual Arabs. One was from a If we look at the history of the very fine gentleman who stays clear of world, every single society has gone politics; the other was by an individual through centuries of autocratic rule. It is from whom I can bring ten statements in very interesting to compare the Middle East print saying the exact opposite of what he to European history, going back several supposedly believes here. centuries. What we see is that the road of So we must start with and stick with democracy is always very difficult and that the evidence--and the evidence shows that it takes an incredibly long time. In England Arab liberals are weak. If you actually we are talking about centuries. The period survey all the possible literature, it is clear between the French Revolution and the real that they still represent a small minority, not institution of actual democracy in France only on the political scene, not only in was one hundred years. In Germany, to put public opinion, but even in the columns of it mildly, they had a few problems before the newspapers open to running liberal they finally got it right. Russia took a 70- articles. We have done content analysis of year detour through totalitarian newspapers like al-Sharq al-Awsat which Communism. And religious ideas, demonstrates this fact. The question to be institutions, and hierarchies were persistent answered is why Arab liberals are so weak obstacles on the road to democracy in and have to water down their arguments so Europe. much. And the answer here lies in large part So, what we see in the Middle East with the mechanisms through which the is not atypical in any basic way from Arab nationalist regimes, the intellectuals Western history. No special factor who carry that ideology and serve those involving Arabs or Islam is needed to regimes, and the Islamist opposition explain the lack of democracy and social dominate Arab society and discourse. change in the Middle East. On top of this is the fact that there is What is, however, atypical about the a lot more being written by Arab liberals region is that the year on the calendar page who live outside the Middle East. Even is 2004. Other places have already resolved Arab liberals who live inside the Middle the problems that plague the Middle East. East are doing much of their writing in In Latin America, though, much of this English--both in Western publications and process of democratization only took place local English-language newspapers--and are in the 1980s and 1990s, despite the fact that going much further in their views when the area had much more of a foundation for they do write in English as opposed to democratization and a Western-oriented Arabic. culture and religion. This is understandable. I want to The problem is not the essence, make it very clear that I am sympathetic to culture, or theology of the Arab world and their efforts and respect their courage. But Iran but the prevailing political and their struggle becomes all the more ideological system there. It is not that the impressive when one understands how Arab system failed to adapt to modern incredible are the odds they face and their times. It has adapted very well to modern own side's pitifully few assets. times in terms of keeping bad regimes in At this point, I must refer to a side power. Again, there is a parallel to issue that greatly distorts any discussion of European history, Europe in the process of

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modernization developed two phenomena These systems--and obviously every called communism and fascism, which country is different in some ways--are very arose as reactions against modernization effective at staying in power. The problem and created incredible problems. Millions is that they are far less effective at bringing of people died in this process in Europe. In higher living standards, economic progress, the Middle East there have been two more freedom, social change and things like parallel phenomena called Arab nationalism that. Repression is only one element of the and Islamism. system and sometimes it is one of the least In the modernization process--which important aspects. For a rough analogy, includes democratization, industrialization, think of the kind of system that existed in individualism, equality for women, the Soviet bloc but even stronger. After all, urbanization, a weakening of religion, the in the Soviet bloc, religion and nationalism development of mass commercial culture, were often opposed to the prevailing and many other phenomena--a long time is regime. In contrast, in the Middle East these needed, obstacles are thrown in the way, are two powerful tools manipulated by the and movements arise which oppose these regime or the Islamist opposition with changes. One of the critical differences in which it has so much in common. the Middle East is that the retrograde In short, Arab liberals are fighting movements have almost completely taken against an incredibly powerful system, over all the political systems, control the well-skilled at staying in power, at economic system, and enjoy hegemony discrediting them, and at manipulating over thought. Groups and classes which symbols. They have a very difficult uphill spearheaded the drive to democracy and battle. liberalization elsewhere in the world-- Given this challenge, how do Arab students, intellectuals, labor unions, and liberals deal with the issues they face? After businesspeople, for example--have been co- all, if they are going to argue for major opted as supporters for the system. So structural reforms and all that entails, they overwhelming is its hegemony and ability must offer alternative explanations and to avoid blame for its failings--especially by solutions for the prevailing issues in their putting them onto foreign scapegoats--that countries. it is very hard to challenge and has What are some of these critical tremendous power to intimidate its critics. issues? First, there is the explanation of I wrote a book, The Tragedy of the why the Arab world is facing so many Middle East (Cambridge University Press, problems, why it is in such bad shape. The 2002), in which I tried to explain what the official answer tends to be imperialism and system is. It is a very fully developed Zionism has held back the Arab world. Not system and includes everything from how only are the Arab regimes not at fault, but you handle the military (for example, they must act as they do in order to survive multiple forces including ethnic and and defeat the enemy. ideological ones; special privileges); how Arab liberals have a choice of you have a doctrine that justifies responses. One response can be an anti- dictatorship (blaming Western imperialism system strategy. The reason for the mess in and Zionism for all problems; maintaining a the Arab world is, "Because these permanent state of war); how you win the dictatorships are in power. They are bad support of the masses (control of media, and incompetent. We must overthrow them schools, and even mosques); and how you in some way and institute democracy." build a sufficient base to stay in power A second choice is to agree with the (demagoguery, ideology, rewards, rulers by saying, "Yes you are right, the repression). problem is imperialism and Zionism. But

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the system you have in place doesn't face complex network of rewards and them effectively. So make the reforms that punishments to spread their influence. we want and then you can combat them They also have a range of highly much more effectively." Just as the effective ways of sabotaging the liberals. Islamists offer their form of Islam as the Some of these might be called Middle East only way to fulfill the existing goals, the McCarthyism. The liberals are said to be liberals can do the same with their traitors, agents in the pay of the Americans philosophy. or Zionist agents, operating out of greed The third option is a more and sabotaging Arab society. They are said technocratic approach: "What we really to be importing inappropriate, alien ideas need are certain economic and structural which will bring ethnic strife or an Islamist reforms, as China has done, that allow us to takeover. perform better without having to change the What is an Arab liberal to do? political system. So we are not against you, Should he say, "To call America our enemy the government, we want to work with you is a lie. We need good relations with the to make it more likely you survive. United States. Its pro-democracy policy is a Finally, a fourth, related, approach positive thing." Or should he keep his is to offer the regimes an alliance against distance from America, covering that the radical Islamists. Only the liberals' ideas country with scorn in order to protect and methods can defeat the great common himself and pander to his audience. threat, they argue. The regimes may play Should an Arab liberal say, "The along but understand that they have more to overthrow of Saddam Hussein is a good gain by appeasing the conservatives thing and a chance for a breakthrough to however much they pretend to sympathize democracy," or should he make it seem as if with the reformers. the main fault of that regime was to go too The problem is that if the liberals far and thus provoke foreign intervention. follow any but the first choice, they are far Can an Arab liberal advocate peace more likely to be coopted, their message with Israel or claim he has a more effective watered down and their arguments used way to destroy it? largely to reinforce the existing system. Yet Difficult as these issues are, they if they follow the first alternative they are pale in comparison with the difficult more likely to be repressed by the rulers question of Islam. Historically, many and ignored (or more likely, condemned) by democratic reformers in the West and the masses. elsewhere were secular and anti-religious. On every issue--whether it be Look at the French revolution. Look at the women's rights, the United States, Israel, Italian revolutionary nationalist tradition. Islam, the Iraq war, etc--the liberals have a Even the Arab left of decades ago argued choice of different courses to take, all of that religion was a counterproductive opiate them pretty unattractive. of the masses. But obviously this is not a Aside from the substance of the very effective tactic for Arab liberals to argument--with which the Arab nationalists follow today. and Islamists have a much easier time--is A second option is to say that Islam the regime's control of the means of should be a matter of private life. It should expression. It can ensure that the schools, not be in the public arena. Or reformers media, and (in some cases) mosques follow could say, "Let us work with those people its line. The Arab nationalists and Islamists who have more liberal interpretations of have far more money and many times more Islam." If they choose the former path, they supporters than do the liberals. They have a are likely to be ignored; picking the latter,

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they will find very few partners. Once there. It is dangerously misleading to look again, there is no easy way out. at the Arab masses as closet liberals. Having said all this about the When I tell people that I am writing structural problems, the ideological a book on liberal Arabs, the standard joke is difficulties, the difficulty in winning mass that it must be a short book. My response is support, the repression, and so on, it is not to say, "No, on the contrary, there is a lot of surprising that the movement is very weak. material because the ideas and discussions It controls almost no institutions, except a are so interesting." But it is also true to few think tanks, or media outlets. There are admit that one must refer again and again to no secret societies of sympathetic military the same individuals, a courageous but officers, no strongholds in universities. small group which is far more often heard Outside of Kuwait, there are virtually no and is far better known in the West rather real liberal parties, and even there a poor than the Middle East. electoral performance shows the limit of It is necessary here to say something popular support. There is not even any about Islamism. This issue cannot be liberated reformist territory, no liberal glossed over. True, radical Islamism equivalent of Moscow or Tehran. Iraq could inspires a lot of opposition among Arabs possibly fill that gap, but events since horrified that they would have to live in Saddam's overthrow give little cause for such a regime. In one Western poll series, hope. Arab respondents were asked what kind of How sharply this contrasts with the political system they favored. They were history of Asia, Africa, or Latin America! told to choose between an Islamic system or Those places were and are full of liberal a democratic system. The majority chose a intellectuals, businesspeople, journalists, democratic system, which was used to universities, newspapers, political parties, argue that this was their true feeling. But and just about every other form of when this is the choice, all the existing endeavor. There are attempts to create such Arab regimes are classified as newspapers, television stations, and even "democratic." This does not tell us about universities. They are praiseworthy, but the support for democracy but rather support process is barely in its infancy. The liberals for the status quo among those frightened are outgunned in every sector of society. It by the prospect of an Islamist revolution. is going to take a long time to change this Today, Islamism--not liberalism--is situation. the main opposition movement and Then let us turn to the people. Arab alternative doctrine in every Arab state. liberals like to say that the masses are really Now on one hand, Arab nationalism and a silent majority which supports them. Islamism are completely opposed and they There are some indications of this in polls are engaged in a struggle for power. On the but these are not clear-cut. Of course, other hand, they reinforce each other's people do not speak their real feelings as arguments on many points in an anti-liberal they live within a dictatorship. But I suggest direction. it is reasonable to argue that there is a broad In addition, every liberal has to deal and genuine sympathy for radical Arab with what can be called "Islamist threat." In nationalist and Islamist positions. Some of other words, if we consider Saudi Arabia, this is due to indoctrination, constant Egypt, or Algeria as examples, citizens propaganda. Some is due to rewards and must pick between these two powerful things like ethnic loyalties--of Alawites in forces against which liberal reformism is a Syria and Sunnis in Iraq--or communal minor factor. Do you want the Saudi nationalism in religious form for Islamists-- monarchy or bin Ladin, the Algerian junta Sunnis in Syria and Shi'a in Iraq. But it is or the Islamists, President Husni Mubarak

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or Ayman al-Zawahiri? Like it or not, it is a like, "There are only two possible futures credible argument when regimes warn that for the Arab world. One is Islam and the there will be anarchy, violence, and the other is democracy." I don't think that is possibility of Islamist revolution if people accurate. The status quo, perhaps with tinker with the status quo. Post-Saddam minor modifications, is a third option. Iraq is an extremely graphic demonstration People think of the Middle East as an of that point. unstable part of the world. But in fact, So how do you deal with that? Now, literally in the last thirty years no Arab if you are an Algerian liberal, what do you regime has really changed with the do? Do you say, "We have a military exception of Sudan and Yemen. regime, we have an Islamist opposition, so I So we have to be realistic. This is am for a third way." Or do you say, "If I going to be an extended struggle, and it is had to choose between them--and I do--I going to go on for decades. The outcome is support the regime." I think the latter path is not inevitable or simple. The forces of the one that far more people are going to liberalism are weak. Will they grow take. stronger? I think they will, but how much There is a popular song in Egypt stronger? How quickly? which shows how the anti-liberal forces put their case so effectively using nationalist Now, I do not want to get into the policy and religious appeals: "Better Saddam's issues, but I will just make one remark here, Hell Than Bush's Heaven." But there is also which is external influence is going to be a phrase that could be used in Saudi Arabia limited under any conditions. Let us say just that illustrates the equally effective use of for the sake of discussion that external this choice to gain support for the status influence is not going to be more than ten quo: Better the Saudi monarchy's hell than or twenty percent of the equation. Is that bin Ladin's heaven." effect important and useful? Is it worth All of these multiple factors doing? Absolutely yes, but it is extremely undercut liberalism. Nineteenth-century hard to do right. Western liberals battled monarchies, many But again much of the talk about of which gave a large latitude for these issues is a debate that has more to do democracy, secularism, free enterprise, and with Washington than with the reality of the cultural freedom--far more than is available Middle East. It is easy and common for in the Arab world today. Only when people to talk as if Washington is the only Western liberalism was stronger, even fairly place that matters. There is much ignorance hegemonic, did it have to confront about these matters in the United States, Communism and fascism. And when it did which usually goes in the direction of so, liberalism fought this battle by being in overstating the U.S. role. Some argue that control of powerful countries which U.S. policy is responsible for the sad state defeated these enemies. Arab liberals must of the region; others that it can easily fix fight a highly organized, ideologically these problems. Both concepts are wrong. coherent, well-armed enemy in their These issues are going to be fought movement's infancy. out and dealt with by the people in the In short, we should not region who are going to succeed or fail by underestimate the power of the status quo, the arguments that they make, the struggles how long the process is going to take, how they wage, and the tactics they adopt. many setbacks it will suffer, and even Let me repeat: good policy and good whether it can triumph at all in anything scholarship begins with a clear-eyed, other than a very long time span. More than unsentimental, non-partisan and honest one leading Arab liberal has said something attempt to understand reality. If things are

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not the way we would like them to be then not likely to be effective voices on behalf of we must begin by trying to accept that fact democratic change in their societies. and to figure out whether it is possible to Second, I will ask how Arab liberals bridge that gap and how it could be done. are--and might become--positioned relative Now, I have not fully done justice to to their own society's political evolution the subject. There are dozens more points to and relative to U.S. policy in the region. In discuss but I hope to have touched on some other words, what can we expect from Arab important points that might be new and liberals as the region continues to struggle useful to you. with questions of political change, and what should we not expect from them? Third, I will suggest what role the amara Cofman Wittes: I want to thank T U.S. can play in influencing the fate of Barry for setting up my remarks so well. I Arab liberals. don't want to dispute the essential analysis Let me start, though, by contending that he has given, which is that liberals are with just one point Barry made towards the weak, are limited in number and influence, end of his presentation: that in his view the and face a tremendous series of dilemmas status quo remains an option in the Arab when they attempt to act in the political world. While I would agree that the sphere. What I will differ with him on, political systems in most Arab states today though, is the root of that difficult situation, retain a wide variety of powerful tools to and what might be done to change it and to sustain the ruling regimes in power, it give liberals a better shot. appears to me as a social scientist that the In the last few weeks, we have seen demographics and the economics in the some written analyses of Arab liberalism region are such that those regimes are that argue that liberal elites are increasingly rubbing up against the limit of their ability aging, increasingly isolated, and to use those tools effectively. I think that, diminishing in number. They are said to be more than anything else, this is what has an endangered species. It is stated that they driven liberals in the region and others in are not the vanguard of democracy in the the region to discuss questions of reform. Middle East, Islamists are. The implication As we all know, the United States came of all these expert opinions is that it is fairly late to this conversation. So, the perhaps misguided, or even folly, for U.S. internally generated logic of change, I policy to embrace and to support this think, will continue to play itself out beleaguered and. perhaps ultimately, regardless of what attitude the United States hapless group as the centerpiece of its may or may not take. efforts to democratize the Arab world. I want to start by saying that in What I would like to do is to probe every society liberals are a fairly small elite the common wisdom about Arab liberals on group that in many ways is isolated from several points that center around this the grassroots. It was true in revolutionary question of what U.S. policy attitudes America; it was true in enlightenment towards this group should be. Europe; it was true in Eastern Europe First, it is undoubtedly true, as an before the fall of the Berlin Wall. Liberals empirical matter, that Arab liberals are in are not usually that popular. Liberalism is the minority among politically active Arabs, not a populist ideology. But I do want to and they appear to be out of the mainstream dispute the idea that liberals in the Arab of what we can find out about public world are aging and decreasing in number. opinion. I will ask why this is the case and It may be that liberal intellectuals in the whether that means that, in fact, liberals are tradition of those who flourished in the early decades of the 20th century in the

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Arab world are aging and decreasing in against them. Our contribution from the number and that's just a fact of life. outside to liberalism and ultimately to But there is a younger generation of democratization in the Arab world in the liberals who are not necessarily all coming years should be our assiduous work journalists and novelists: they are to level this playing field. I will return to businessmen, they are lawyers, they are this point at the end to explain what I mean doctors and they are parliamentarians. by that and what we can do to help make it Many of you in this room know them well happen. But let me first give you the and work with them every day--and they diagnosis. are fairly pragmatic in their approach to Arab regimes, whether republican or promoting liberal politics and liberal ideas. monarchical, have managed to strictly I think that is precisely why we need to pay control most arenas of public discussion careful attention to what they are doing and and debate, but they have never been able saying. But whether liberal visions of to fully control religious institutions--and government can win sufficient support from religious authorities have always Arab publics to gain ground against state maintained sufficient independent authority socialism, against Islamism, and against in society that regimes have had to co-opt those other alternatives, that is the real them rather than controlling them entirely. question. I don't think we can answer that Indeed, when Islamist oppositions and question yet. violent Islamist movements began to gain It is very important, as Barry strength in many countries, including suggests, to understand the reasons why secular Baathist countries like Syria and liberals remain a small weak elite group in Iraq, the regimes responded by ceding the Arab world. Barry has argued in some certain social arenas to the Islamists in of his previous writing that obviously the order to co-opt them, while at the same time answer involves state repression, but that violently repressing the radical Islamists the biggest obstacle to liberals raising their who couldn't be co-opted. voice is that they are drowned out and As a result, I think you have seen discredited by people who are willing to over the last 20-25 years, over the last play the Palestine card and otherwise generation basically, many Arab societies deflect the national conversation toward who have seen their educational systems, pan-Arab or anti-colonial issues and away their TV and radio airtime, and sometimes from domestic political problems. even more, their streets and their stores I think that is no doubt true, to a artificially Islamicized. While most arenas degree--but I would argue that that is not of political debate have been controlled, the the biggest obstacle that Arab liberals face religious institutions have always retained today. Arab liberals over the past year in their ability to discuss public policy and particular have found their voice to an political issues through their language of amazing extent, and are standing up to religion. In this way, the regimes have express their concerns and beliefs in spite maintained control--and they have also of not only a continuing intifada but also maintained the Islamists as the only viable the US invasion of Iraq, and indeed, some alternative to their rule. So you have, in of them would say because of the U.S. fact, a tacit, and in some cases not a tacit invasion of Iraq. but an outright, bargain between these two The biggest obstacle Arab liberals groups. face in becoming a stronger and more This is the process that, over the relevant force in Arab politics today, by my past quarter century, has placed Arab analysis, is that liberals today are trying to liberals in the very difficult situation that play on a field that is tilted very much Barry described. The longer that we on the

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outside press Arab regimes to undertake Today, in this artificial situation, many reform that doesn't involve opening new Arab liberals--and the U.S. government, arenas for freedom of speech and freedom frankly--are choosing to support regimes' of association, the more the Islamists are efforts at controlled gradual liberalization the ones who are going to benefit most from as a hedge against the Islamists. What I am the limited liberalization that occurs, while suggesting to you is that, not only is that not other political tendencies, liberals and an effective strategy, but it is a others, are going to remain locked out or counterproductive strategy. forced, as Barry said, to work within the So, assume for the moment that this system, to try and make their influence felt public square could be opened up and that within the ruling party, within the ruling alternatives to Islamist political voices family. So in the public eye, the Islamists could make themselves heard, could have become more and more firmly entrenched, the ability to organize, to gain adherents, to more prominent, and the only political exercise their views publicly. What can we alternative to the status quo; meanwhile expect? What can we expect from the Arab liberals and other alternatives are seen, at liberals and what should we not expect best, as irrelevant, and at worst, they from them? become closely associated with the failings I think we can expect them to voice of the current regime. their views without hesitation and without So if Islamists are the vanguard of relying on others to set their agenda. By democratic politics today--a fact that is others, I mean not only outside actors like making democracy in the Arab world the U.S., but also the regimes themselves by something that some people in Washington mouthing words about reform. Arab liberals fear instead of embrace--that is an artificial need to define and articulate the priorities situation, because Islamists haven't really they see for change within their own had to compete. If liberals are weak, that is societies and we should attend to and because they haven't had the chance to support those priorities. So for example, make their case. So, of course, if free having women political candidates, which elections were held tomorrow in most Arab we have made a big priority in our countries, Islamist candidates and parties government-supported democracy would predominate. But I don't think we assistance programs, might be less of a could make a proper assessment of what priority for Arab liberals than having more Arab democracy is likely to bring in a women doctors, or having women's rights situation this artificially controlled. to property protected by law and enforced Now, the first conclusion from this in the courts. fact is that we shouldn't assume that the We shouldn't expect that Arab current lack of popular support for liberal liberal views on policy issues will always ideas and politicians is a meaningful accord with our own--I think that is indicator of their prospects in the event of obvious; demanding support for US policy eventual democratization. We shouldn't goals from those who receive our funding assume that they will get support, but we and assistance is a death knell for their can't assume that they won't. The second domestic legitimacy and for their trust in conclusion is that we shouldn't allow this our support for democracy as opposed to artificial advantage for Islamists to our support for a particular political continue, or we risk creating a self-fulfilling outcome. That said, I think that the prophecy about Islamist victories and argument that any assistance from America Islamists being the only ones to triumph in or the West to Arab liberals is a kiss of democratic politics. death, is an argument that is largely overblown.

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I think we can expect Arab liberals given them in the courts; in parliament; in to make their views known to their the ruling parties; in newly sanctioned governments, but we shouldn't expect them government-sponsored NGOs. all to be dissidents. We should not expect But I think that, even in those them all to be absolutists, to operate outside countries where liberals are now trying to the system and declare themselves wholly exploit openings in the existing system, in opposition to existing regimes. A lot of there may indeed come a time when liberals the more neo-conservative discussion of will have to give up trying to persuade their Arab liberalism seems to paint Arab liberals governments and turn into a genuine anti- as though they were the natural successors regime opposition movement. But where to Eastern European and Soviet dissidents, liberals are still testing how much they can that they're oppressed outsiders calling achieve by persuasion, we should support attention to the fundamental illegitimacy of them in this effort. We shouldn't require the ruling regime. I think there is also a them to serve as a foil to maximize the broader sense among some in the United contradictions of the existing system and States that, in order for liberal democracy to we should also support them, of course, be realized in Arab states, civil society has when they fail at persuasion and suffer the to stand entirely in opposition to consequences of their challenge, as Saad government. But Arab liberal activists by Eddin Ibrahim discovered. One and large have not acquiesced in this consequence of this analysis is that it is dichotomy and I think that is appropriate. inevitable that, as liberals begin truly to The Middle East is not like Eastern compete and to compete in the local public Europe, where regimes were externally square as opposed to competing for our imposed, where their legitimating attention, they will probably act and sound ideologies were essentially alien and more nationalist than they do today. fundamentally illegitimate. Arab regimes Looking at the region today, versus have impaired legitimacy because of poor looking at it even five years ago, I don't see performance; because of the decline of their how anyone can say that liberals have not post-colonial ideologies, but they do retain found their voice. In the past year alone, if some legitimacy. It is this legitimacy that is we have seen a tremendous number of galvanized by our forceful interventions meetings, statements, petitions, into the region. communiqués and the founding of Arab liberals are struggling to make movements and organizations to perpetuate their case in the face of this continued their views, even in situations where nationalist legitimacy that the regimes founding those organizations is rather enjoy. I think the key is for liberals and for difficult and sometimes even illegal. other opposition figures to gain a certain Privately, and I think increasingly publicly, degree of confidence in their own Arab liberal activists are saying that explicit nationalism, in their own ability to make the pressure from the United States on case for globalization and democratization democratization has helped them raise their being good for their own society. Not to voices by forcing their leaders to discuss cede the language of nationalism and previously taboo issues and by extending national identity to regimes, just as they them in a way, a sort of rhetorical umbrella shouldn't cede the language of Islam to of protection to speak about those issues. Islamist radicals. I think that Arab liberals Given this renewed sense of mission are beginning to do this in some places and and this rediscovered voice among Arab in some cases, and I think some of them are liberals, what should the U.S. be doing? As doing it by working within the existing I said, I think the first thing we should do is system, taking advantages of opportunities to work to level the playing field, so that

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regimes and the Islamist opposition are not how to fill out grant applications to western the only actors able to project political ideas agencies or prepare budget accountability to the public. Doing this requires the United reports or give congressional testimony. It States, first of all, to clearly state and means funding their travel and logistics so prioritize in our talks with Arab they can meet with one another, so that they governments the need to provide for and can gain strength from one another's protect fundamental rights of free experiences. I think, too, it might help to expression, free press and free association give them opportunities to network with so that liberal spokesmen can make their and learn from liberal activists in others message heard; so that liberals can build parts of the developing world, Serbia, organizations and demonstrate the strength Georgia, South Korea, Central America and of their public following. so on. Second, I think the U.S. government I think, for the U.S. government, needs to be talking with these individuals in this last point is perhaps the most depth prior to every high-level U.S. visit to important: that we need to distinguish their countries or visit of their officials here. between democracy promotion and public I think it was great that Secretary Powell diplomacy. We should not be insisting that took the time to meet with Egyptian every activity that takes place in the region activists during his recent trip to Cairo. But that is funded with American money gets an I hope that those same activists had a shot American stamp on it. Democracy at putting talking points on his agenda for promotion is not about making us look his meeting with Mubarak before he got to good. If we are promoting democracy in the Cairo. I don't know that that was the case. region on behalf of our own national My understanding is that, even within the security interests and because we believe U.S. government, it is difficult to get those the long-term strength, the long-term talking points on the agenda. stability of the region demands it; that is Leveling the playing field, for the true whether or not people who end up United States, also means recognizing and voting in those societies like our policies. I embracing the tradeoffs that this strategy think that is perhaps one reason for more of requires. We shouldn't be wasting our the assistance to be directed through non- political capital with the friendly Arab governmental as opposed to governmental regimes, asking them to show up at some agencies, because I think the bureaucratic multilateral forum on reform. Instead we imperative to put the American stamp on it should be tightly focused on achieving is just too strong from inside. meaningful gains in freedom inside Arab So, to help these liberals win their countries. I think we have to trust in our struggle, which is very much an uphill mutual interests with these governments, in battle, I do think we need to enable their our longstanding relations with them, to successes but not to claim them as our own. carry our conversations with them past the I will stop there. Thank you. point of initial rejection. Laith Kubba: Thank you. With the I think the second thing we can do--and I ten minutes at my disposal, I will focus on will end here--is to support the liberals' where I disagree. There is a lot I agree with growing efforts at networking, at on recommendations made and issues organization-building and agenda-setting raised. But I would like to focus more on within their own countries and across the areas open to criticism. region. That is where the work of Firstly, I think I disagree with the organizations like the NED are so notion of both speakers that Arab liberals important. But it doesn't mean training them are really too weak or so weak to the extent

Middle East Review of International Affairs, Vol. 8, No. 4 (December 2004) Arab Liberalism and Democracy in the Middle East

that if we give them space then they are not looking at the culture in Arab and Muslim going to prevail. We need to ask a question, countries, that is a slightly different issue. if Arab liberals are there, why don't we see If I want to look at the history, there them, why don't we hear them, why aren't have been liberal currents in Arab countries they influential in politics? And that is a in the last hundred years. I can look at three very legitimate question. But to answer that cities that tell the story; someone actually we need to look at two things: one, what is briefed them as the BBC: Baghdad, Beirut, our definition and conception of Arab and Cairo. I think if you look at these three liberals? What sort of Arab liberalism are cities a hundred years ago when they were we talking about? Two, what are the just post-Ottoman, there was an open space, patterns of behavior of those liberals under modern constitutions, and there was natural tough conditions of authoritarianism. Then I growth of liberal currents. These currents think we can explore the undercurrents of manifested themselves in independent liberalism in Arab countries, which way associations, NGO syndicates, independent they are heading and of course the most media and literature, in flourishing cultures critical question, would they benefit from and religions, and diversity within the an open space or would they lose out more society. However, these liberal currents in such an open space? comfortably grew out of conservative I think first one must create a clear societies. Traditional societies were not the distinction between home-grown liberalism real obstacles. The real obstacle that and western-grown liberalism. I think crushed liberalism was the state liberalism in its classic definition looks at authoritarianism, military authoritarianism anchored and self-individual values, in particular, that arose and assumed full freedom of expression, freedom of control over public space and could not enterprise, all the basic freedoms that one tolerate liberal tendencies. has. Liberalism went through a long, unique What are the patterns of behavior journey, emerged in the West, within a for liberals? I totally underline and agree Western culture, where it had a discourse with Tamara when she described liberals in on loosening up from religion and religious general as being of diverse opinions--they control, from state control, from are not populist movements. It is not an monarchies, etc. Ultimately, it manifested ideology; it is not an -ism in a sense like all itself in a Western lifestyle. I think in terms the totalitarian views. Among liberals, we of values, the fundamental values that have a wide range of views toward religion, define liberalism, we will have a real towards the state, towards development, problem in adopting and seeing these values and we have a wide range of political in Arab countries. attitudes and positions. Hence, we do find I will go even further to argue many or some liberal intellectuals who were clearly and strongly that looking at Islam-- compromised by the state, who started and not anything that is labeled Islamic, but moving along on a nationalist discourse, looking at Islam in its original sense--it is, maybe being used in that respect. But in like the previous Abrahamic religions: general, liberals tend to stay low when they anchored in individual salvation, it focuses are threatened, purely because they are on individual responsibility, individual liberals, they are pragmatists, they want to rights, the right to choose, and the right of survive and look after their own values, and freedom, etc. Looking at theses values in if the atmosphere is wrong, they are the first the original text, I do not think ones to go in hiding and stay low and they fundamentally there is a problem in are the last ones to emerge. I think the establishing and adopting these values. But currents are very much there despite tough conditions.

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If we want to look at what the short term, yes, they will not win the conditions normally encourage, and are first round in elections, but I think associated with, liberal tendencies, it is the ultimately they are going to influence the level of development and education which culture and thinking, even for example, of are in line with, and in favor of, liberal Islamic parties. I can see lots of liberal currents. If you ask what are their politics, I currents that are pushing Islamic parties to agree that we need not associate liberalism reinterpret religion and readjust their in Arab countries with political positions worldviews, because, after all, a good part aligned with Western countries or with the of the liberal discourse is focused on United States. Liberals can be critical of the religion itself. I will stop here. West and of diverse views--they have to look after their national interests. Liberals BIOGRAPHIES can disagree amongst themselves on issues, Barry Rubin, is Director of the Global if they are Arabs or Kurds, or if they are Research and International Affairs conservatives or not. There is full diversity (GLORIA) Center, and editor of the Middle of political views among liberals and I think East Review of International Affairs we need to look at our definition as to what (MERIA). His recent books include Yasir liberalism is, and define it in a much Arafat, a Political Biography and Anti- broader sense. American Terrorism in the Middle East Maybe I will move to the most (Oxford University Press) and The Tragedy important point here being a senior program of the Middle East. (Cambridge University officer at NED and giving grants and Press). He is completing a book on Arab supporting trends that will encourage liberals and their struggle. liberalization in Arab countries. I think the argument here is extremely sensitive and Tamara Cofman Wittes is a research important. Is the problem really weak fellow at the Brookings Institution's Saban liberal currents because of culture, because Center for Middle East Policy. Formerly a of religion or whatever, or is the problem program officer at the U.S. Institute of lack of space? I tend to argue strongly that Peace, she is editor of the forthcoming How the problem is in the conditions and the lack Israelis and Palestinians Negotiate: A Cross of space and the way states have crushed Cultural Analysis of the Oslo Peace the space that could have naturally nurtured Process. Her article, "The Promise of Arab these liberal tendencies. I think also that the Liberalism: America's Role in Middle East focus should be not as you quite rightly Reform" appeared in the June 2004 Policy said, on simply supporting those who we Review. handpick in groups or individuals but supporting the liberalization process at Laith Kubba, a senior program officer for large. I make a clear distinction between the Middle East and North Africa at the Westernization and liberalization. National Endowment For Democracy, I don't think we need to narrow directed the international program of the Al down our definition of liberalizing the Khoei Foundation in London and was the political process to simply Westernization. founder of the Islam 21 Project. When it comes to a vote of confidence, despite all the gloom that is out there, I think the undercurrents are strong. Liberals will benefit more from the open space that is created through the media and through the internet. I think they are benefiting more from the failures of authoritarian states. In

Middle East Review of International Affairs, Vol. 8, No. 4 (December 2004)