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June 9, 2018 Belmont Park June 9, 2018 Belmont Park 866.88XPRESS (866.889.7737) Welcome to Xpressbet’s Free Belmont Wager Guide! Fellow Racing Fan, In 2015, Bob Baffert-trained American Pharoah won the first Triple Crown since 1978. It could be déjà vu all over again. Baffert’s back for the Belmont Stakes, this time with Justify, a swift, talented, big and beautiful chestnut colt, poised to add a third jewel to a pair previously garnered during stops in Baltimore and Louisville. For a variety of handicapping reasons, it appears as if Justify will join 12 others as winners of one of the most elusive prizes in sport. He will be a short price to succeed in the Big Apple. Those seeking value in Belmont Stakes wagering pools while simultaneously casting Justify in the starring role must construct creative exotic wagers. Those going against the son of Scat Daddy merely need to find the correct alternative. Hopefully, the contents of this guide will point readers in the right direction. That’s why Xpressbet has recruited top handicappers, writers and broadcasters to examine the race—Analysis, Main Contenders, Value Plays and $100 Wagering Strategies. Inside the guide you’ll also find useful Belmont Stats & Trends, a handy Exotic Wagering Chart and much more. Wager on the Belmont Stakes and worldwide Thoroughbred and harness racing with Xpressbet online, by phone or via mobile device. New account holders are eligible for up to a $500 bonus. Current account holders enjoy a variety of exciting and profitable seasonal promotions. Act now to open an account in time to wager on the Belmont Stakes. Complete details are available at Xpressbet.com. Return to the Xpressbet website daily beginning Tuesday, June 5, for free updates, including Johnny D’s in- depth, horse-by-horse Belmont analysis available Thursday, revised expert opinions and selections based on scratches, post positions, weather, etc. and much more. An enhanced guide version, including NBC Sports analyst Eddie Olcyzk’s picks, will be available online Friday, June 8. The folks at Xpressbet wish you an entertaining and profitable 2018 Belmont Stakes and look forward to serving as your advance deposit wagering account provider for the big day and into the future. Sincerely, The Xpressbet Team Belmont Stakes Money-Back Guarantee Make a Win Bet on the Belmont Stakes and get your money back if your horse finishes 2nd or 3rd! Restrictions apply. Please visit Xpressbet.com for more information. 866.88XPRESS (866.889.7737) Must be 18 or older (21 in AL, AZ, IA, IN, KS, NH, ND, WA) to open an account with Xpressbet, LLC and reside in a state where such activity is legal. Void where prohibited. National Gambling Support Line 800.522.4700. Belmont Wagering Facts By Jeremy Plonk, Xpressbet @HorsePlayerNow Below are some informative wagering tidbits from past Belmont Stakes events. Win-Place-Show Odds Superfecta Payoffs (Last 10 Years, Odds to $1) (Last 10 years, $1 Payoffs) Win Odds Average: $9,961.88 Average: 13.64 High: $37,026 High: 38.50 (Da’ Tara, 2008) (Ruler On Ice-Stay Thirsty-Brilliant Speed-Nehro, 2011) Low: .75 (American Pharoah, 2015) Low: $285 Notable: 7 of the last 10 winners were at least 9-to-1 odds. (American Pharoah-Frosted-Keen Ice-Mubtaahij, 2015) Average Odds of Fourth-Place Finishers: 12.52-to-1 Place Odds Notable: 6 of the last 9 Belmont superfectas have paid at least Average: 9.09 $5,329 for a $1 wager. High: 28.00 (Commissioner, 2014) Low: 2.75 (Irish War Cry, 2017) Highest-Priced Runners In Superfecta Notable: In 2017, Irish War Cry became the first Belmont favorite to (Last 10 Years, Odds to $1) finish second since Curlin in 2007. Year Odds Horse Fin. 2008 38.50 Da’ Tara 1st Show Odds 2008 34.25 Anak Nakal 3rd (dead heat) Average: 13.88 2008 28.75 Ready’s Echo 3rd (dead heat) High: 34.25 (Anak Nakal, 2008-DH) Low: 1.25 (Mine That Bird, 2009) Shortest-Priced Belmont Favorites Notable: 6 of the last 7 show horses were double-digit odds. (Last 10 Years, Odds to $1) Year Odds Horse Fin. Exacta Payoffs 2008 .30 Big Brown dnf (Last 10 Years, $2 Payoff) 2015 .75 American Pharoah 1st Average: $288.32 2014 .85 California Chrome 4th High: $928.00 (Ruler On Ice-Stay Thirsty, 2011) 2009 1.25 Mine That Bird 3rd Low: $13.60 (American Pharoah-Frosted, 2015) Notable: 3 of the last 6 Belmont Stakes $2 exactas have Odds-On Belmont Favorites paid $45.20 or less. (Since 1940) Total Odds-On Favorites: 34 Trifecta Payoffs Winning Odds-On Favorites: 13 (Last 10 Years, $1 Payoff) % of Winning Odds-On Favorites: 38% Average: $1,241.33 Last Odds-On Favorite to Compete: High: $4,134.00 American Pharoah (.75-to-1, 2015) (Ruler On Ice-Stay Thirsty-Brilliant Speed, 2011) Last Odds-On Favorite to Win: Low: $54.75 (American Pharoah-Frosted-Keen Ice, 2015) American Pharoah (.75-to-1, 2015) Notable: The trifecta has paid $1,000 or more in 5 of 18 years offered. Bob Neumeier Millie Ball Jeff Siegel Jon White Dick Jerardi Steve Byk Expert (HPNow) (XBTV.com) (XBTV.com) (Santa Anita) (DRF) (SiriusXM Radio) First Hofburg Justify Justify Justify Justify Justify Second Justify Bravazo Hofburg Hofburg Hofburg Vino Rosso Third Vino Rosso Bandua Vino Rosso Vino Rosso Noble Indy Free Drop Billy Fourth Tenfold Hofburg Tenfold Bravazo Tenfold Restoring Hope The Belmont Contenders By Johnny D., Xpressbet @XBJohnnyD Justify He’s on the brink of becoming just the 13th in history to win the Triple Crown. He’s already broken a more than century-old jinx and established a brand spanking new standard by becoming the first in history to win the Kentucky Derby and Preakness without racing as a 2-year-old. Hall-of-Fame trainer Bob Baffert looks to set a record for most Triple Crown event wins at 15. Bravazo Trained by Hall-of-Fame resident D. Wayne Lukas, Bravazo threw a legitimate scare into Justify in the Preakness when he closed late to miss by a mere half-length. Sixth in the Kentucky Derby, he should handle the mile and one-half Belmont distance. Pertinent question is if he can threaten Justify without another horse first softening up the Derby and Preakness winner. Hofburg Second in the Florida Derby in just his third start, Hofburg delivered an encouraging effort in the Kentucky Derby when seventh, three-quarters of a length behind Bravazo. While Bravazo raced wide in the Derby, Hofburg encountered traffic trouble. He’s capable, rested and, like the top two, is in a Hall-of-Fame trainer’s hands—Bill Mott. Tenfold Third in the Preakness in just his fourth lifetime start, merely three-quarters of a length behind Justify, Tenfold has plenty of upside for another Hall-of-Fame trainer Steve Asmussen. Tenfold was passed late in the stretch by Bravazo but, as the son of Curlin out of a Tapit mare, distance should not be an issue. Vino Rosso You may recall that in the Kentucky Derby Hall-of-Fame jockey John Velasquez chose to ride Vino Rosso over several other Todd Pletcher-trained runners. Cards were stacked against Velazquez and ‘Vino breaking from the 18-hole and they were forced to race wide throughout on the muddy surface, finishing ninth. Vino Rosso romped in the Grade 2 Wood and seems to relish a distance. Noble Indy Like Vino Rosso, Noble Indy is trained by Todd Pletcher, a man who knows how to win the Belmont Stakes. Both runners have been rested for this race. Well-beaten in the Kentucky Derby from post 19, ‘Indy has won three of five starts, including the Louisiana Derby. He has some speed and could be closest to Justify early. Shame On Me Post Time: 4:14 PM ET By Bob Neumeier, HorsePlayerNow.com 4YO+, Fillies & Mares 1 1/2 Miles Turf Analysis: You’ve likely heard this expression a gazillion times, “Fool me once, shame on Stats & Trends you; fool me twice, shame on me.” After incorrectly picking the winners of the Kentucky Preakness Winners in Belmont Derby and the Preakness Stakes, I should abide by this quote and opt for JUSTIFY in (Last 10 Years) the Belmont Stakes. This should be a unanimous verdict. His gaudy past performances Year Horse Fin 2017 did not compete - scream that people should back the favorite. With the less-than-stellar opposition, it 2016 Exaggerator 11th SHOULD be even easier for JUSTIFY to win the 13th Triple Crown based on his guts, 2015 American Pharoah 1st talent and a most favorable pace shape. His trainer, Bob Baffert, needs no directions to 2014 California Chrome 4th 2013 Oxbow 2nd a Triple Crown winner’s circle, with 14 T.C. wins on his ledger. ‘Big Money’ Mike Smith 2012 did not compete - should be poised to add more zeroes to his lofty checking account. On the evening of 2011 Shackleford 5th June 9, JUSTIFY should be an undefeated Triple Crown champion. Easy, right? Nope. 2010 did not compete - 2009 did not compete - 2008 Big Brown dnf Main Contenders: This is not about “value” in this particular case. It’s a prediction about upside … and likely regression. HOFBURG has the look of a 3-year-old with Most Belmont Wins by Jockey Wins Jockey enormous potential. His sire, Tapit, is one of the best ever with a penchant for late- 6 Eddie Arcaro bloomers and progeny that can run from Maine to Spain. On the female side of 6 Jim McLaughlin HOFBURG’S blue-blooded pedigree is Touch Gold, his broodmare sire, a Belmont 5 Earl Sande 5 Bill Shoemaker Stakes winner.
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