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June 9, 2018 Belmont Park

June 9, 2018

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In 2015, -trained won the first Triple Crown since 1978. It could be déjà vu all over again. Baffert’s back for the , this time with , a swift, talented, big and beautiful chestnut colt, poised to add a third jewel to a pair previously garnered during stops in Baltimore and Louisville. For a variety of handicapping reasons, it appears as if Justify will join 12 others as winners of one of the most elusive prizes in sport. He will be a short price to succeed in the Big Apple.

Those seeking value in Belmont Stakes wagering pools while simultaneously casting Justify in the starring role must construct creative exotic wagers. Those going against the son of merely need to find the correct alternative. Hopefully, the contents of this guide will point readers in the right direction. That’s why Xpressbet has recruited top handicappers, writers and broadcasters to examine the race—Analysis, Main Contenders, Value Plays and $100 Wagering Strategies. Inside the guide you’ll also find useful Belmont Stats & Trends, a handy Exotic Wagering Chart and much more.

Wager on the Belmont Stakes and worldwide and harness racing with Xpressbet online, by phone or via mobile device. New account holders are eligible for up to a $500 bonus. Current account holders enjoy a variety of exciting and profitable seasonal promotions. Act now to open an account in time to wager on the Belmont Stakes. Complete details are available at Xpressbet.com.

Return to the Xpressbet website daily beginning Tuesday, June 5, for free updates, including Johnny D’s in- depth, horse-by-horse Belmont analysis available Thursday, revised expert opinions and selections based on scratches, post positions, weather, etc. and much more. An enhanced guide version, including NBC Sports analyst Eddie Olcyzk’s picks, will be available online Friday, June 8.

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Must be 18 or older (21 in AL, AZ, IA, IN, KS, NH, ND, WA) to open an account with Xpressbet, LLC and reside in a state where such activity is legal. Void where prohibited. National Gambling Support Line 800.522.4700. Belmont Wagering Facts By Jeremy Plonk, Xpressbet @HorsePlayerNow

Below are some informative wagering tidbits from past Belmont Stakes events.

Win-Place-Show Odds Superfecta Payoffs (Last 10 Years, Odds to $1) (Last 10 years, $1 Payoffs) Win Odds Average: $9,961.88 Average: 13.64 High: $37,026 High: 38.50 (Da’ Tara, 2008) (--Brilliant Speed-Nehro, 2011) Low: .75 (American Pharoah, 2015) Low: $285 Notable: 7 of the last 10 winners were at least 9-to-1 odds. (American Pharoah-Frosted-Keen Ice-Mubtaahij, 2015) Average Odds of Fourth-Place Finishers: 12.52-to-1 Place Odds Notable: 6 of the last 9 Belmont superfectas have paid at least Average: 9.09 $5,329 for a $1 wager. High: 28.00 (Commissioner, 2014) Low: 2.75 (Irish War Cry, 2017) Highest-Priced Runners In Superfecta Notable: In 2017, Irish War Cry became the first Belmont favorite to (Last 10 Years, Odds to $1) finish second since in 2007. Year Odds Horse Fin. 2008 38.50 Da’ Tara 1st Show Odds 2008 34.25 Anak Nakal 3rd (dead heat) Average: 13.88 2008 28.75 Ready’s Echo 3rd (dead heat) High: 34.25 (Anak Nakal, 2008-DH) Low: 1.25 (, 2009) Shortest-Priced Belmont Favorites Notable: 6 of the last 7 show horses were double-digit odds. (Last 10 Years, Odds to $1) Year Odds Horse Fin. Exacta Payoffs 2008 .30 dnf (Last 10 Years, $2 Payoff) 2015 .75 American Pharoah 1st Average: $288.32 2014 .85 4th High: $928.00 (Ruler On Ice-Stay Thirsty, 2011) 2009 1.25 Mine That Bird 3rd Low: $13.60 (American Pharoah-Frosted, 2015) Notable: 3 of the last 6 Belmont Stakes $2 exactas have Odds-On Belmont Favorites paid $45.20 or less. (Since 1940) Total Odds-On Favorites: 34 Trifecta Payoffs Winning Odds-On Favorites: 13 (Last 10 Years, $1 Payoff) % of Winning Odds-On Favorites: 38% Average: $1,241.33 Last Odds-On Favorite to Compete: High: $4,134.00 American Pharoah (.75-to-1, 2015) (Ruler On Ice-Stay Thirsty-Brilliant Speed, 2011) Last Odds-On Favorite to Win: Low: $54.75 (American Pharoah-Frosted-Keen Ice, 2015) American Pharoah (.75-to-1, 2015) Notable: The trifecta has paid $1,000 or more in 5 of 18 years offered.

Bob Neumeier Millie Ball Jeff Siegel Jon White Dick Jerardi Steve Byk Expert (HPNow) (XBTV.com) (XBTV.com) (Santa Anita) (DRF) (SiriusXM Radio)

First Hofburg Justify Justify Justify Justify Justify Second Justify Bravazo Hofburg Hofburg Hofburg Third Vino Rosso Bandua Vino Rosso Vino Rosso Noble Indy Free Drop Billy Fourth Tenfold Hofburg Tenfold Bravazo Tenfold Restoring Hope The Belmont Contenders By Johnny D., Xpressbet @XBJohnnyD

Justify He’s on the brink of becoming just the 13th in history to win the Triple Crown. He’s already broken a more than century-old jinx and established a brand spanking new standard by becoming the first in history to win the Derby and Preakness without racing as a 2-year-old. Hall-of-Fame trainer Bob Baffert looks to set a record for most Triple Crown event wins at 15.

Bravazo Trained by Hall-of-Fame resident D. Wayne Lukas, Bravazo threw a legitimate scare into Justify in the Preakness when he closed late to miss by a mere half-length. Sixth in the , he should handle the mile and one-half Belmont distance. Pertinent question is if he can threaten Justify without another horse first softening up the Derby and Preakness winner.

Hofburg Second in the in just his third start, Hofburg delivered an encouraging effort in the Kentucky Derby when seventh, three-quarters of a length behind Bravazo. While Bravazo raced wide in the Derby, Hofburg encountered traffic trouble. He’s capable, rested and, like the top two, is in a Hall-of-Fame trainer’s hands—Bill Mott.

Tenfold Third in the Preakness in just his fourth lifetime start, merely three-quarters of a length behind Justify, Tenfold has plenty of upside for another Hall-of-Fame trainer . Tenfold was passed late in the stretch by Bravazo but, as the son of Curlin out of a mare, distance should not be an issue.

Vino Rosso You may recall that in the Kentucky Derby Hall-of-Fame John Velasquez chose to ride Vino Rosso over several other -trained runners. Cards were stacked against Velazquez and ‘Vino breaking from the 18-hole and they were forced to race wide throughout on the muddy surface, finishing ninth. Vino Rosso romped in the Grade 2 Wood and seems to relish a distance.

Noble Indy Like Vino Rosso, Noble Indy is trained by Todd Pletcher, a man who knows how to win the Belmont Stakes. Both runners have been rested for this race. Well-beaten in the Kentucky Derby from post 19, ‘Indy has won three of five starts, including the . He has some speed and could be closest to Justify early. Shame On Me Post Time: 4:14 PM ET By , HorsePlayerNow.com 4YO+, Fillies & Mares 1 1/2 Miles Turf

Analysis: You’ve likely heard this expression a gazillion times, “Fool me once, shame on Stats & Trends you; fool me twice, shame on me.” After incorrectly picking the winners of the Kentucky Preakness Winners in Belmont Derby and the , I should abide by this quote and opt for JUSTIFY in (Last 10 Years) the Belmont Stakes. This should be a unanimous verdict. His gaudy past performances Year Horse Fin 2017 did not compete - scream that people should back the favorite. With the less-than-stellar opposition, it 2016 11th SHOULD be even easier for JUSTIFY to win the 13th Triple Crown based on his guts, 2015 American Pharoah 1st talent and a most favorable pace shape. His trainer, Bob Baffert, needs no directions to 2014 California Chrome 4th 2013 2nd a Triple Crown winner’s circle, with 14 T.C. wins on his ledger. ‘Big Money’ Mike Smith 2012 did not compete - should be poised to add more zeroes to his lofty checking account. On the evening of 2011 5th June 9, JUSTIFY should be an undefeated Triple Crown champion. Easy, right? Nope. 2010 did not compete - 2009 did not compete - 2008 Big Brown dnf Main Contenders: This is not about “value” in this particular case. It’s a prediction about upside … and likely regression. HOFBURG has the look of a 3-year-old with Most Belmont Wins by Jockey Wins Jockey enormous potential. His sire, Tapit, is one of the best ever with a penchant for late- 6 bloomers and progeny that can run from Maine to Spain. On the female side of 6 Jim McLaughlin HOFBURG’S blue-blooded pedigree is , his broodmare sire, a Belmont 5 Earl Sande 5 Bill Shoemaker Stakes winner. HOFBURG ran a sneaky-good race in the Florida Derby and suffered 3 * several major traffic jams in the Kentucky Derby.VINO ROSSO was touted as Todd 3 Pletcher’s “Belmont horse” a few months ago. On his best day, he can be a danger. 3 Pat Day 3 Laffit Pincay, Jr. With 6 races in 16 short weeks, it could be that JUSTIFY will be “over the top” with a 3 James Stout regression in his form cycle. * Active

Value Plays: The Preakness results should boost the prospects of BRAVAZO and ? Know This TENFOLD, who clearly benefitted from an upfront speed duel in the second jewel. Tarnishing A Crown GRONKOWSKI will be grossly overbet because of the peculiar popularity of the tight The most shocking upsets at Belmont with a Triple Crown on the line are (70.25-to-1 over War end of the New England Patriots. The final win odds of the Belmont will be fascinating. Emblem) 2002; and (65.05-to-1 over JUSTIFY will land in the 3-5 win range. At 4 or 5-1, HOFBURG looks enticing. At 6 or 7-1, ) 1961. VINO ROSSO is a decent play as well. Going the Distance The Belmont Stakes is 440 yards longer than the $100 Wagering Strategy: Kentucky Derby and 550 yards longer than the • $30 Win: HOFBURG ($30) Preakness Stakes.

• $30 Exacta: HOFBURG over JUSTIFY ($30) Little to do at Two • $20 Exacta: HOFBURG over VINO ROSSO ($20) Justify could become the first Triple Crown winner • $20 Exacta: JUSTIFY over HOFBURG ($20) that did not have at least 3 starts as a juvenile. He had zero. Bob’s Picks 1. HOFBURG 3. VINO ROSSO 2. JUSTIFY 4. TENFOLD Exotic Wagering Chart

Belmont exotic wagers usually produce hefty payoffs. Use this handy Exotic Wagering Chart to help plan your attack.

Exacta Box: ($1 Wager) Trifecta Key: ($.50 Wager) 2 horse box ...... $2 1 Horse with 3 others ...... $3 3 horse box ...... $6 (Example: 1/ 2, 3, 4/ 2, 3, 4) 4 horse box ...... $12 1 Horse with 4 others ...... $6 5 horse box ...... $20 (Example: 1/ 2, 3, 4, 5/ 2, 3, 4, 5) 6 horse box ...... $30 1 Horse with 5 others ...... $10 7 horse box ...... $42 (Example: 1/ 2, 3, 4, 5, 6/ 2, 3, 4, 5, 6) 8 horse box ...... $56 1 Horse with 6 others ...... $15 (Example: 1/ 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7/ 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7) Exacta Wheel: ($1 Wager) 1 Horse with 7 others ...... $21 One Horse with All (Example: 1/ 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8/ 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8) 6 horse field ...... $5 7 horse field ...... $6 Superfecta Box: ($1 Wager) 8 horse field ...... $7 4 Horse Box ...... $24 9 horse field ...... $8 5 Horse Box ...... $120 10 horse field ...... $9 6 Horse Box ...... $360

Trifecta Box: ($.50 Wager) Superfecta Wheel: ($1 Wager) 3 Horse Box ...... $3 One Horse with All with All with All 4 Horse Box ...... $12 (Example: 1/All/All/All or All/1/All/All or All/All/1/All or All/ All/ All/1) 5 Horse Box ...... $30 7 Horse Field ...... $120 6 Horse Box ...... $60 8 Horse Field ...... $210 7 Horse Box ...... $105 9 Horse Field ...... $336 8 Horse Box ...... $168 10 Horse Field ...... $504

Trifecta Wheel: ($.50 Wager) One Horse with Two Horses with All with All One Horse with All with All (Example: 1/2,3/All/All or 2,3/1/All/All or 1/All/All/ 2,3 or (Example: 1/All/All or All/1/All or All/All/1) 2,3/All/All/1 or All/All/1/ 2,3 or All/All/2,3/ 1) 7 Horse Field ...... $15 7 Horse Field ...... $40 8 Horse Field ...... $21 8 Horse Field ...... $60 9 Horse Field ...... $28 9 Horse Field ...... $84 10 Horse Field ...... $36 10 Horse Field ...... $112

One Horse with Two Horses with All Superfecta Key: ($1 Wager) (Example: 1/2,3/All or 2,3/1/All or 1/ 1 Horse with 3 others ...... $6 All/2,3 or 2,3/All/1 or All/1/2,3 or (Example: 1/2, 3, 4/2, 3, 4/2, 3, 4) All/2,3/1) 1 Horse with 4 others ...... $24 7 Horse Field ...... $5 (Example: 1/2, 3, 4, 5/2, 3, 4, 5/2, 3, 4, 5) 8 Horse Field ...... $6 1 Horse with 5 others ...... $60 9 Horse Field ...... $7 (Example: 1/2, 3, 4, 5, 6/2, 3, 4, 5, 6/2, 3, 4, 5, 6) 10 Horse Field ...... $8 1 Horse with 6 others ...... $120 (Example: 1/2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7/2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7/2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7) 1 Horse with 7 others ...... $210 (Example: 1/2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8/2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8/2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8) Beat Goes on for Baffert Post Time: 4:14 PM ET By Millie Ball, XBTV.com 4YO+, Fillies & Mares @camillayakteen 1 1/2 Miles Turf

Analysis: Two of the most important qualities necessary for a 3-year-old to win the Stats & Trends mile and one-half Belmont Stakes are 1) A sound mind – skim the charts since the turn- Belmont Winners in Prior TC Races of-the-century and notice the descriptive tone used for every winner’s trip: “settled,” (Since 2000) “unhurried,” “content to track,” “rated kindly;” and 2) A pedigree that suggests more than Year Horse TC Race 2017 Derby a wink of stamina. JUSTIFY has these AND Bob Baffert in his corner! He remains the best 2016 Derby 3-year-old in the country and will run his race in the Belmont. 2015 American Pharoah Derby, Preakness 2014 none 2013 Derby Main Contenders: JUSTIFY’S work May 29 at assured me that he 2012 Derby remains healthy and is still moving forward. Most pleasing is that he appears to have 2011 Ruler On Ice none maintained his condition despite the rigors of his Triple Crown campaign. Winning the 2010 none 2009 Derby Triple Crown, however, is an onerous task. Since the turn-of-the-century, just three 2008 Da’ Tara none favorites have won the Belmont Stakes and only one of them, like JUSTIFY, had won 2007 none the first two legs. But he’s already proven he is extraordinary. BRAVAZO’S career can 2006 Derby 2005 Alex Derby, Preakness be described as ‘hit-or-miss,’ but he has shown the ability to run back-to-back top 2004 Derby performances. His sire was a BC Classic winner and his dam sire produced the multiple 2003 Derby BC Classic winner . He is quick enough to lay close to JUSTIFY, but tactical 2002 Sarava none 2001 Derby, Preakness enough not to get tangled up in a speed duel with the favorite. HOFBURG is fresh, 2000 Derby coming off 35 days’ rest since the Derby, and can switch off quickly in a race. His sire Tapit has produced three of the last four Belmont winners and his dam sire Touch Gold Most Belmont Wins by Trainer Wins Trainer won the ‘97 edition. 8 James Rowe, Sr. 7 Sam Hidreth Value Plays: European shippers were all the rage in the Belmont Stakes through the 6 Sunny Jim Fitzsimmons 5 Woody Stephens 1980s and into the ‘90s, but that trend has subsided. The only European-based trainer 4 D. Wayne Lukas* ever to win the Belmont Stakes, Dermot Weld with in 1990, also trains 4 R. W. Walden BANDUA, who according to his connections is an outside possibility to run. A champion 4 Max Hirsch Six trainers, including Todd Pletcher* are tied with trainer in Ireland no less than 21 times, Weld has a reputed international resume; so if 3 wins each and six trainers, including Bob Baffert* BANDUA appears in the entry box, be well advised, he’s a contender! and Nick Zito* are tied with 2 wins each. *Active

$100 Wagering Strategy: • $50 Trifecta Key: JUSTIFY over BRAVAZO and BANDUA ($100) ? Know This

Lucky Seven No Triple Crown winner has ever faced more than 7 rivals at Belmont. American Pharoah (2015), (1977) and Citiation (1948) all defeated 7 foes. Millie’s Picks 1. JUSTIFY 3. BANDUA 2. BRAVAZO 4. HOFBURG A Stroll in the (Belmont) Park Post Time: 4:14 PM ET By Jeff Siegel, XBTV.com 4YO+, Fillies & Mares @jsiegelracing 1 1/2 Miles Turf

Analysis: JUSTIFY had to work hard to win the Kentucky Derby. He had to work even Stats & Trends harder to win the Preakness. But, assuming Mother Nature (finally) cooperates, the third Bob Baffert’s Triple Crown Tries jewel in racing’s Triple Crown – historically the most taxing in the series – will almost Year Horse Fin. Margin certainly be his least-difficult assignment since he demolished maidens by more than 2015 American Pharoah 1st 5 ½ lengths 2002 8th 19 ½ lengths nine lengths in mid-February. The Belmont Stakes’ 12-furlong distance will do nothing 1998 2nd Nose but accentuate his superiority over his overmatched opponents, especially on a fast 1997 2nd ¾ length strip. Yes, the Bob Baffert-trained colt is a perfect 3-for-3 over wet surfaces, but the son Undefeated Triple Crown Runners in Belmont of Scat Daddy does nothing more than tolerate off tracks and is much faster and much Year Horse Fin. Odds to $1 more dominant on dry land. If he gets his conditions in New York, he’ll not only win, he’ll 2008 Big Brown dnf .30 put on an exhibition. 2004 2nd .35 1977 Seattle Slew 1st .40 1969 2nd 1.30 Main Contenders: BRAVAZO is generally regarded as JUSTIFY’S main competition; after all, he did finish second, beaten just a half length, in the Preakness. But here’s the ? Know This thing: BRAVAZO is (or eventually will be proven to be) a superior off-track performer, Pharoah Flash as his pedigree dictates he should. If the rains come, well, yes, he’s a player. Otherwise, American Pharoah’s 2015 score was the second he’s a toss-out. TENFOLD, also beaten less than a length in the Preakness, will get some wire-to-wire win at Belmont since 1984. Previously, longshot Da’ Tara in 2008 stole the show. backing, but a mile and one-half will be stretching his limit. VINO ROSSO can hit the board based on his Wood Memorial win and I’m convinced he didn’t handle the slop in Odds-On for the Crown Kentucky. 26 of 32 Triple Crown hopefuls at Belmont have been under even-money favorites, most recently American Pharoah at .75-1 in 2015. Value Plays: HOFBURG ran better than any colt in the Kentucky Derby other than the three that hit the board. The son of Tapit encountered a brutal trip – severe Stretching It The “long” Belmont stretch actually is the shortest traffic trouble from midway down the backstretch to the top of the lane – and he did of the 3 Triple Crown races because of the finish remarkably well to finish seventh, beaten less than nine lengths. He’ll enter the Belmont line placement on the track. Belmont’s stretch run off a five-week freshening, likely has plenty of improvement in him, and should have no equals 1,097 feet – compared to 1,152 at Pimlico and 1,234 ½ at Churchill Downs. difficulty with the trip. To me, he’s clearly the second horse in the race. Preakness Redux Rare $100 Wagering Strategy: The last time the Preakness exacta repeated at Belmont was 2001 when Point Given led AP • $80 Exacta: JUSTIFY over HOFBURG ($80) Valentine to the wire in both. The last Preakness • $20 Exacta: JUSTIFY over VINO ROSSO ($20) exacta reversal at Belmont was when ended Real Quiet’s Triple Crown bid in 1998.

Jeff’s Picks 1. JUSTIFY 3. VINO ROSSO 2. HOFBURG 4. TENFOLD Justify is Just Unstoppable Post Time: 4:14 PM ET By Jon White, Santa Anita Oddsmaker 4YO+, Fillies & Mares @PostTimeJon 1 1/2 Miles Turf

Analysis: Many belittled JUSTIFY’S Preakness performance because he won by only Stats & Trends a half-length. But he actually should be commended. JUSTIFY found himself locked Winning Belmont Post Positions in a tussle for the lead with that continued for furlong…after furlong…after (Since 1905) furlong. When JUSTIFY finally put away Good Magic, the table was set forBRAVAZO Post Wins Post Wins 1 23 8 6 and/or TENFOLD to pounce late and win. But, despite JUSTIFY never getting a breather 2 12 9 4 during the entire 1 3/16 miles, he still was able to prevail. It’s a that so much is 3 15 10 2 being asked of JUSTIFY in such a short period of time. He’s seeking Triple Crown glory 4 10 11 3 5 15 12 1 on June 9, just 111 days after winning his career debut. However, JUSTIFY probably will 6 7 13 1 become the 13th Triple Crown winner for four primary reasons: First, the pace scenario 7 12 14 0 is likely to be much better for him in the Belmont than it was in the Kentucky Derby and Active Jockeys to Win Belmont Preakness. Second, the sweeping turns of Belmont Park’s massive 1 ½-mile oval should Year Jockey Horse be ideal for this big equine athlete. Third, JUSTIFY’S trainer, Bob Baffert, knows how to 2017 Jose Ortiz Tapwrit complete a Triple Crown , having done so with American Pharoah in 2015. And 2016 Irad Ortiz, Jr. Creator 2015 American Pharoah fourth, JUSTIFY’S rider is so darn good at coming through under pressure that he’s 2014 Joel Rosario Tonalist known as ‘Big Money’ Mike Smith. 2013 Mike Smith Palace Malice 2012 John Velazquez Union Rags 2011 Jose Valdivia, Jr. Ruler On Ice Main Contenders: There’s a good chance JUSTIFY not only is going to win the 2010 Mike Smith Drosselmeyer Belmont, but win it by a comfortable margin. Beyond JUSTIFY, I think two of those 2009 Summer Bird vanquished in the Kentucky Derby that then skipped the Preakness, HOFBURG and 2008 Alan Garcia Da’ Tara 2007 John Velazquez Rags to Riches VINO ROSSO, merit a measure of respect. HOFBURG came home enthusiastically in the 2006 Fernando Jara Jazil Derby, then galloped out strongly after the finish.HOFBURG needs to improve by more 2005 than just a little if he is going to beat JUSTIFY on June 9. But HOFBURG, with only 4 2004 Edgar Prado Birdstone 2002 Edgar Prado Sarava races under his belt, does seem to have a lot of upside. VINO ROSSO looked good when 2001 Gary Stevens Point Given he won the Wood Memorial. BRAVAZO and TENFOLD ran well enough in the Preakness 1998 Gary Stevens Victory Gallop to suggest that either or both could hit the board again in the Belmont. 1995 Gary Stevens Thunder ? Know This Value Plays: BLENDED CITIZEN, who probably will be a nice price, did win the Peter Pan at Belmont Park. He seems on the upswing. The One & Only The Belmont Stakes is the only Grade 1 dirt stakes race in America longer than 1 1/4 miles. $100 Wagering Strategy: • $90 Win: JUSTIFY ($90) Get Your Nose Down Only 4 times in history has the Belmont Stakes • $4 Exacta Part Wheel: JUSTIFY over HOFBURG and VINO ROSSO ($8) been decided by a nose, including 2016’s photo • $2 Exacta: JUSTIFY over BLENDED CITIZEN ($2) finish score by Creator.

Jon’s Picks 1. JUSTIFY 3. VINO ROSSO 2. HOFBURG 4. BRAVAZO Meet Lucky Number 13 Post Time: 4:14 PM ET By Dick Jerardi, Daily Racing Form 4YO+, Fillies & Mares @DickJerardi 1 1/2 Miles Turf

Analysis: When JUSTIFY crossed the finish line in the Preakness, even before I checked Stats & Trends to make sure the trifecta tickets I thought I had were indeed what I had, I thought to Odds-On Belmont Starters myself there is no way this horse is winning the Belmont. The next day, after watching (Since 1979) the replay and learning about the likely makeup of the Belmont field, I knew I had Year Horse Fin. Odds 2015 American Pharoah 1st 3-5 overreacted. First, the replay. Watch the gallop out. BRAVAZO and TENFOLD still have 2014 California Chrome 4th 4-5 not gone by JUSTIFY, a horse who clearly has a giant will to win; that’s in addition to 2008 Big Brown dnf 1-5 talent that will take him from unraced to a shot at the Triple Crown in 111 days. Second, 2004 Smarty Jones 2nd 1-5 1998 Real Quiet 2nd 4-5 the field. Anybody notice any early speed to run withJUSTIFY ? Didn’t think so. And even 1989 2nd 4-5 though JUSTIFY’S 97 Preakness was the lowest of his career, the 1987 4th 4-5 other American prospects have combined for 53 starts with exactly one figure better 1981 3rd 4-5 1979 3rd 1-5 than JUSTIFY’S low, the 98 VINO ROSSO got in a career performance, winning the Notable: 8 of the last 9 odds-on favorites Wood Memorial. There is a really good chance JUSTIFY is going to be loose on the lead have lost the Belmont Stakes. in moderate fractions, the exact scenario that carried American Pharoah home three Triple Crown Winner Starts years ago. This could definitely be a wire-to-wire repeat. (Pre-Belmont) Starts Horse Year Main Contenders: JUSTIFY is likely to be higher than the 2-5 he was in the Preakness, 26 1941 20 1943 due to his small winning margin at Pimlico and perceived vulnerability. I did not think 19 1948 JUSTIFY could lose the Preakness and he almost did. I think he could lose the Belmont, 15 1978 but I doubt he will. HOFBURG never really got a chance to run in the Derby until the 14 1973 14 1946 race was essentially over. He ran into traffic twice, but, once he finally got clear sailing 14 1935 in the stretch, his stride got very long. And this son of Tapit (a recent-winning Belmont 10 1937 formula that includes 3 of the last 4 race winners) flies into the Derby video replay during 10 1930 9 1919 the gallop out. 8 Seattle Slew 1977 7 American Pharoah 2015 Value Plays: NOBLE INDY is way better than his Derby 17th and will get a much more Triple Crown Hopefuls in Belmont comfortable, close-to-the-pace trip. Total: 32 Won Triple Crown: 12 $100 Wagering Strategy: Lost Belmont: 20 Second: 8 • $100 Exacta: JUSTIFY over HOFBURG ($100) Third: 5 Did Not Compete: 3

? Know This

Late to the Party The last Belmont winner to rally from more than 10 lengths back is Jazil (2006). Dick’s Picks 1. JUSTIFY 3. NOBLE INDY 2. HOFBURG 4. TENFOLD Just Win, Baby Post Time: 4:14 PM ET By Steve Byk, At the Races (SiriusXM) 4YO+, Fillies & Mares @Steve_Byk 1 1/2 Miles Turf

Analysis: When we arrive in New York with a Triple Crown in play, the ‘smart money’ Stats & Trends says abandon the dual-classic winner in search of a score. Why not? Between 1979- Fastest Belmont Final Times 2014, that approach was 12-0 with an average win mutuel of $37.80! In the wake of Year Time Horse 2015 and American Pharoah ending the futile search for a sweep, the question becomes 1973 2:24 Secretariat 1989 2:26 ‘Is anything that different now?’ IsJUSTIFY more eligible to succeed at Belmont than 1992 A.P. Indy imposing Derby-Preakness winners like California Chrome, Smarty Jones, Real Quiet, 2001 2:26 2/5 Point Given Alysheba and others? While standing against JUSTIFY may be the right play, his positive 1988 2015 2:26 3/5 American Pharoah post-Preakness appearance and opportunity for a rhythmic gallop around the sweeping 1978 2:26 4/5 Affirmed 12-furlong oval that leaves his foes panting is enough to support him in his quest. Belmont Winners Since Affirmed (Last 39 Years) Main Contenders: BRAVAZO did his best in Baltimore to emulate Lukas trainee 15 Triple Crown Series Newcomers Oxbow, who then ran second in the Belmont. Like JUSTIFY, HOFBURG was making his 12 Derby & Preakness Runners fourth career start in the Derby, but his style afforded more opportunity for trouble and 11 Derby Runners that Skipped Preakness 1 Preakness Runner that Skipped Derby that’s exactly what he found. He’ll have far more room to operate at Belmont. TENFOLD was unlucky at Pimlico, running better than BRAVAZO. 2017 Belmont Handle (Millions, Except for Pick 6) Pool Handle Value Plays: VINO ROSSO shares breeder John Gunther in common with JUSTIFY Win, Place, Show $ 15.9 and is even more credentialed to take to the mile and one-half. With Tapwrit’s victory Trifecta $ 10.2 last year, trainer Todd Pletcher is now 21: 3-5-4 in the Belmont since 2006. Dale Exacta $ 8.8 Superfecta $ 5.6 Romans has sent out 4 third-place finishers in the Belmont since 2005 andFREE DROP Pick 4 $ 3.8 BILLY has the page (Union Rags out of a Giant’s Causeway mare) and style to nab a Pick 6 $ 951k share. While everyone focuses on stablemate JUSTIFY, RESTORING HOPE comes into the race with perhaps the best pedigree for the Test of the Champion. Baffert lit up when ? Know This asked about the Wood show pony’s preparations. Peter Pan winner BLENDED CITIZEN Baltimore Bypass (Proud Citizen) is a half to long-winded Lookin At Lee and GRONKOWSKI (Lonhro) is out 15 of the last 18 Belmont winners skipped the Preakness. Preakness winners that also won of a mare that’s a half to Stephen Foster winner Flashy Bull. Belmont during that span were American Pharoah, Afleet Alex, Point Given. $100 Wagering Strategy: Iron Mike • $7 Trifecta part-wheel: JUSTIFY with VINO ROSSO with FREE DROP BILLY, Jockey Mike Smith could become the oldest jockey RESTORING HOPE, HOFBURG, BRAVAZO, BLENDED CITIZEN, TENFOLD ($42) ever to pilot a Triple Crown winner, 9 years the • $3 Trifecta part-wheel: JUSTIFY with FREE DROP BILLY, RESTORING HOPE, senior of Victor Espinoza, American Pharoah’s rider, and 15 years older than Jean Cruguet, who was HOFBURG, BRAVAZO, BLENDED CITIZEN, TENFOLD with VINO ROSSO ($18) aboard Seattle Slew. • $8 Exacta part-wheel: JUSTIFY over VINO ROSSO, FREE DROP BILLY, RESTORING HOPE, BLENDED CITIZEN, TENFOLD ($40)

Steve’s Picks 1. JUSTIFY 3. FREE DROP BILLY 2. VINO ROSSO 4. RESTORING HOPE

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