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Regional Integration in Bay of Bengal Region in Post-COVID-19 Period”, Artnet Working Paper Series No A Service of Leibniz-Informationszentrum econstor Wirtschaft Leibniz Information Centre Make Your Publications Visible. zbw for Economics De, Prabir Working Paper Regional integration in Bay of Bengal region in post- COVID-19 period ARTNeT Working Paper Series, No. 204 Provided in Cooperation with: Asia-Pacific Research and Training Network on Trade (ARTNeT), Bangkok Suggested Citation: De, Prabir (2021) : Regional integration in Bay of Bengal region in post- COVID-19 period, ARTNeT Working Paper Series, No. 204, Asia-Pacific Research and Training Network on Trade (ARTNeT), Bangkok This Version is available at: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/229649 Standard-Nutzungsbedingungen: Terms of use: Die Dokumente auf EconStor dürfen zu eigenen wissenschaftlichen Documents in EconStor may be saved and copied for your Zwecken und zum Privatgebrauch gespeichert und kopiert werden. personal and scholarly purposes. Sie dürfen die Dokumente nicht für öffentliche oder kommerzielle You are not to copy documents for public or commercial Zwecke vervielfältigen, öffentlich ausstellen, öffentlich zugänglich purposes, to exhibit the documents publicly, to make them machen, vertreiben oder anderweitig nutzen. publicly available on the internet, or to distribute or otherwise use the documents in public. Sofern die Verfasser die Dokumente unter Open-Content-Lizenzen (insbesondere CC-Lizenzen) zur Verfügung gestellt haben sollten, If the documents have been made available under an Open gelten abweichend von diesen Nutzungsbedingungen die in der dort Content Licence (especially Creative Commons Licences), you genannten Lizenz gewährten Nutzungsrechte. may exercise further usage rights as specified in the indicated licence. www.econstor.eu 1 Regional integration in Bay of Bengal region in post -COVID-19 period Prabir De ASIA-PACIFIC RESEARCH AND TRAINING NETWORK ON TRADE Working Paper No. 204 | 2021 Gloria O. Pasadilla 2 The Asia-Pacific Research and Training Network on Trade (ARTNeT) is an open regional network of research and academic institutions specializing in international trade policy and facilitation issues. ESCAP, WTO and UNCTAD, as key core network partners, and a number of bilateral development partners, provide substantive and/or financial support to the network. The Trade, Investment and Innovation Division of ESCAP, the regional branch of the United Nations for Asia and the Pacific, provides the Secretariat of the network and a direct regional link to trade policymakers and other international organizations. The ARTNeT Working Paper Series disseminates the findings of work in progress to encourage the exchange of ideas about trade issues. An objective of the series is to publish the findings quickly, even if the presentations are less than fully polished. ARTNeT Working Papers are available online at www.artnetontrade.org. All material in the Working Papers may be freely quoted or reprinted, but acknowledgment is requested together with a copy of the publication containing the quotation or reprint. The use of the Working Papers for any commercial purpose, including resale, is prohibited. Disclaimer: The designations employed and the presentation of the material in this Working Paper do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the Secretariat of the United Nations concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area, or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries. Where the designation “country or area” appears, it covers countries, territories, cities or areas. Bibliographical and other references have, wherever possible, been verified. The United Nations bears no responsibility for the availability or functioning of URLs. The views expressed in this publication are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the United Nations. The opinions, figures and estimates set forth in this publication are the responsibility of the author(s) and should not necessarily be considered as reflecting the views or carrying the endorsement of the United Nations. Any errors are the responsibility of the author(s). The mention of firm names and commercial products does not imply the endorsement of the United Nations. © ARTNeT 2021 3 ASIA-PACIFIC RESEARCH AND TRAINING NETWORK ON TRADE WORKING PAPER Regional integration in Bay of Bengal region in post-COVID-19 period Prabir De1 Please cite this paper as: De, Prabir (2021). “Regional integration in Bay of Bengal region in post-COVID-19 period”, ARTNeT Working Paper Series No. 204, January 2021, Bangkok: ESCAP. Available at https://artnet.unescap.org 1 Professor, ASEAN-India Centre (AIC), Research and Information System for Developing Countries (RIS), New Delhi, e-mail: [email protected]. Author is grateful to Durairaj Kumarasamy for his research assistance and analytical support. Author has benefitted from periodic discussions on this topic with a host of scholars, and in particular is grateful to Mia Mikic for her guidance and encouragement. The author also appreciates assistance of ARTNeT in disseminating this paper. Views are author’s own. 4 Abstract Bay of Bengal countries have been affected heavily by the ongoing Coronavirus pandemic. This article argues that the regional cooperation could help in reducing the costs of pandemic-driven barriers. The responses to the Corona pandemic also suggest a greater scope of regional cooperation among the countries in the Bay of Bengal region. Regional integration may help the Bay of Bengal countries overcome divisions that impede the flow of trade in goods and services, people and ideas, particularly when all members have been facing a common challenge to beat the Coronavirus pandemic. This paper briefly discusses the major challenges being faced by the Bay of Bengal countries, and the way forward in the post-COVID-19 period. It presents the trends in economic growth in the region, which has been the key to regional economic integration, and analyses the likely economic loss due to the COVID-19 pandemic. The article discusses the magnitude of the Coronavirus pandemic in the Bay of Bengal region, followed by a discussion on the progress and achievements in regional cooperation in the Bay of Bengal region with particular reference to the pandemic period. It also presents the opportunities and the regional response to deal with the ongoing pandemic. Keywords: Bay of Bengal, BIMSTEC, Trade, Regional integration, COVID-19 JEL codes: F1, F13 5 Contents 1. Introduction .......................................................................................................... 7 2. Rising Bay of Bengal and the coronavirus pandemic ....................................... 9 2.1 Likely trade scenario in post-COVID-19 period ..................................................... 11 3. Dealing with coronavirus pandemic in Bay of Bengal region ........................ 14 4. The CoVID-19 pandemic and regional cooperation in Bay of Bengal region: A primer .................................................................................................................. 17 5. Post-COVID-19 challenges and regional cooperation contours .................... 20 5.1 Public health ............................................................................................................ 20 5.2 Enhanced trade facilitation and regional connectivity ......................................... 22 6. Conclusion .......................................................................................................... 24 List of References .................................................................................................. 26 Appendix 1 .............................................................................................................. 27 Appendix 2 .............................................................................................................. 29 Appendix 3 .............................................................................................................. 30 6 List of Abbreviations APT ASEAN Plus Three ASEAN Association of South-East Asian Nations BCF BIMSTEC COVID-19 Fund BIMSTEC Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation FTAs free trade agreements GDP gross domestic product IMF International Monetary Fund LDCs least developed countries MoU memorandum of understanding MVA Motor Vehicle Agreement PHEIC Public Health Emergency of International Concern RPHLN ASEAN Regional Public Health Laboratories Network SAARC South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation SDGs Sustainable Development Goals SOM senior officials’ meeting SOPs standard operating procedures TH Trilateral Highway TTF Technology Transfer Facility WHO World Health Organization 7 1. Introduction The Bay of Bengal region is presently home to around 1.6 billion people, which constitute around 23 per cent of the world population. It brings together US$3 trillion economy, which accounts for 4 per cent of the global GDP and 3.7 per cent of the global trade. The Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation (BIMSTEC) is a seven-nation organization of Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Myanmar, Nepal, Sri Lanka and Thailand. BIMSTEC, the regional initiative in the Bay of Bengal region, is a unique regional cooperation initiative in terms of geographical contiguity and access to ocean. It not only has direct access to the Bay of Bengal but also enjoys shared history and civilizational links. Bay of Bengal countries are at different
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