Too Big to Fail: the Path to a Solution a Report of the Failure Resolution Task Force of the Financial Regulatory Reform Initiative of the Bipartisan Policy Center
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Too Big to Fail: The Path to a Solution A Report of the Failure Resolution Task Force of the Financial Regulatory Reform Initiative of the Bipartisan Policy Center May 2013 ABOUT BPC Founded in 2007 by former Senate Majority Leaders Howard Baker, Tom Daschle, Bob Dole and George Mitchell, the Bipartisan Policy Center (BPC) is a non-profit organization that drives principled solutions through rigorous analysis, reasoned negotiation and respectful dialogue. With projects in multiple issue areas, BPC combines politically balanced policymaking with strong, proactive advocacy and outreach. ABOUT THE FINANCIAL REGULATORY REFORM INITIATIVE The Financial Regulatory Reform Initiative (FRRI) is co-chaired by Martin Baily and Phillip Swagel. Comprised of five task forces, FRRI’s goal is to conduct an analysis of Dodd-Frank to determine what is and what is not working along with recommendations to improve the system. THIS PAPER IS AUTHORED BY THE CO-CHAIRS OF THE FAILURE RESOLUTION TASK FORCE John F. Bovenzi Randall D. Guynn Thomas H. Jackson The authors appreciate the work and input of the initiative co-chairs, fellow task force members and BPC staff. DISCLAIMER This white paper is the product of the BPC’s Financial Regulatory Reform Initiative. The findings and recommendations expressed herein do not necessarily represent the views or opinions of the Bipartisan Policy Center, its founders, or its board of directors. Too Big to Fail: The Path to a Solution | ii Table of Contents Table of Contents....................................................................................... iii Executive Summary ................................................................................... 1 Recommendations .................................................................................... 8 Discussion .................................................................................................. 16 Detailed Executive Summary ........................................................................16 Maturity Transformation, Panics and Runs.............................................................16 Too-big-to-fail Problem ......................................................................................18 Distinction Between Capital and Liquidity ..............................................................19 Purpose, Conclusions and Recommendations.........................................................19 Orderly Liquidation Authority...............................................................................22 Single-Point-of-Entry (SPOE) Recapitalization Strategy ...........................................23 Bankruptcy Code ...............................................................................................33 Detailed Discussion .................................................................................. 36 Financial System, Maturity Transformation, Panics and Runs.....................36 Too-Big-to-Fail Problem...................................................................................42 The Trouble with Government Bailouts .................................................................43 Proposed Solutions ............................................................................................46 Least-Cost Test .................................................................................................46 Distinction Between Capital and Liquidity...................................................46 Government Bailouts: Capital and Uncompensated Risks ........................................47 Lender-of-Last-Resort Facilities: Liquidity .............................................................47 Orderly Liquidation Fund ....................................................................................53 Key to a Successful Resolution ......................................................................53 Orderly Liquidation Authority.........................................................................54 Single-Point-of-Entry (SPOE) Recapitalization Strategy...............................58 Public, Private, and International Reactions...........................................................58 Alternative Strategies for D-SIFIs and D-SIBs .......................................................63 Too Big to Fail: The Path to a Solution | iii Description of SPOE Recapitalization Strategy........................................................63 Bankruptcy Code............................................................................................70 Ex-Ante Proposals............................................................................................72 Break-up and Caps ............................................................................................73 “Cost-Free” Super Equity Capital .........................................................................77 Conclusion ................................................................................................ 81 Annex A. Process for Researching and Writing the Report................. 82 Annex B. Glossary..................................................................................... 90 Annex C. Bibliography........................................................................... 106 Figures Figure 1. SPOE: Group Structure Before Recapitalization...........................24 Figure 2. SPOE: Hypothetical Losses..............................................................25 Figure 3. SPOE Step 1 – Recapitalizing Business Transferred to Bridge Holdco..............................................................................................................25 Figure 4. SPOE Step 2 – Recapitalizing Operating Subsidiaries..................26 Figure 5. U.S. Basel III Proposals......................................................................29 Figure 6. SPOE Step 3 – Distribution of Equity in Bridge FHC in Satisfaction of Claims Left Behind in Receivership......................................30 Figure 7. SPOE Step 4 – Termination of Bridge Status ..................................30 Figure 8. Bank Closings During Banking Panics, 1873-1914.........................51 Figure 9. Bank Failures, 1910-1940 .................................................................51 Figure 10. Failed Banks / Thrifts, 1921-2012 ...................................................53 Too Big to Fail: The Path to a Solution | iv Executive Summary If there is one thing that all sides of the “too-big-to-fail” debate can agree on, it is that reliving the financial crisis of 2008 without an effective means of resolving all financial institutions would be unacceptable. A central premise of this report is that the too-big-to-fail problem would be solved if all financial institutions, including systemically important ones (SIFIs), could be resolved, that is, recapitalized, sold or wound down without triggering the type of contagious panic that can severely destabilize or even result in a collapse of the financial system and without resorting to taxpayer-funded bailouts to prevent such a catastrophe. A contagious panic results in a cascade of mass withdrawals of cash from the financial system – also known as liquidity runs or just runs – that force financial institutions to sell their illiquid but valuable assets at fire-sale prices. Fire sales not only result in wealth transfers, but also in deadweight losses and overall value destruction that hurts the economy as a whole. The reason banks and other financial institutions are vulnerable to liquidity runs and fire sales during a financial crisis is that one of their core activities is maturity transformation. Maturity transformation is the vitally important process by which financial institutions fund themselves with various forms of short-term money (e.g. bank deposits) and use these funds to make long-term loans or investments, which are often illiquid (e.g. small business loans). Without maturity transformation, our modern economy would grind to a halt. If financial institutions are forced to sell their illiquid but valuable assets at fire-sale prices, otherwise solvent firms can become insolvent. A feedback loop consisting of contagious panics, runs and fire sales will destabilize or even result in a collapse of the financial system. A destabilization or collapse of the financial system will result in a severe contraction in the supply of credit, which will in turn result in long-term damage to the wider economy in terms of higher unemployment and lower output and it will potentially create social unrest. The too-big-to-fail problem arises if government officials have no real choice other than between bailouts and a collapse of the financial system. If these two choices are the only ones available, responsible officials will typically choose bailouts as the lesser of two evils. To end the too-big-to-fail problem, government officials need a viable alternative to these two choices. The alternative must allow a SIFI to be recapitalized, sold or wound down in a way that does not risk a collapse of the financial system and without taxpayer-funded bailouts. Too Big to Fail: The Path to a Solution | 1 Taxpayer-funded bailouts are injections of public money as new equity, long-term unsecured debt or other capital structure liabilities of insolvent firms that insulate the holders of the firm’s capital structure liabilities against losses. So are government guarantees of a firm’s public debt, unless the government is properly compensated for