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The Rents of Banking a Public Choice Approach to Bank Regulation

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The Rents of Banking a Public Choice Approach to Bank Regulation Herausgeber der Reihe: Hans-Werner Sinn Schriftleitung: Chang Woon Nam ifo Beiträge 59 zur Wirtschaftsforschung The Rents of Banking A Public Choice Approach to Bank Regulation Florian Christopher Buck Bibliografische Information der Deutschen Nationalbibliothek Die Deutsche Nationalbibliothek verzeichnet diese Publikation in der Deutschen Nationalbibliografie; detaillierte bibliografische Daten sind im Internet über http://dnb.d-nb.de abrufbar ISBN-13: 978-3-88512-562-4 Alle Rechte, insbesondere das der Übersetzung in fremde Sprachen, vorbehalten. Ohne ausdrückliche Genehmigung des Verlags ist es auch nicht gestattet, dieses Buch oder Teile daraus auf photomechanischem Wege (Photokopie, Mikrokopie) oder auf andere Art zu vervielfältigen. © ifo Institut, München 2015 Druck: ifo Institut, München ifo Institut im Internet: http://www.cesifo-group.de Preface The rise of a crisis-prone banking sector and its political power has received significant attention following the most recent financial crisis. The crisis sparked a growing interest in understanding how and why we have created a world of large, unstable banks. Excessive banking activity arose not by chance. Using theoretical models from a pub- lic choice perspective, the thesis rationalizes this trend as the outcome of political decisions. I argue that the asymmetric information on the costs of banking regulation (and on the social value of making credit available to selected borrowers) incentivizes politicians to combat banking panics and equally preserve electoral support through the smart design of banking rules, and most importantly the provision of an under- priced safety net for banks. However, this incentive structure has produced a regulatory framework that now favors the emergence of large, systemically important financial in- stitutions. Once established, the created rents for banking activity are likely to persist due to political and institutional lock-in effects. This thesis discusses the linkages between banking regulation, rents and financial activ- ity in five chapters, which can be broadly structured into two parts. Part One examines the secular intensification of banking activity over the last century from a public choice point of view. Chapter 2 analyzes the emergence, chapter 3 the growth and chapter 4 the stabilization of the banking rents. The common theme is that politicians can favor bank over market finance when they are able to use the banking sector as a tool to create regulatory rents to a subgroup of citizens for redistributional reasons. The persistent political power of banks is explained by the incentive conflicts of policy-makers and subsequently the bank’s ability to form strategic coalitions with other actors, which has helped them to extract rents until the present day. Part Two addresses the question of how regulators should deal with the fragile and highly subsidized banking sector. The aim of prudential regulation is to reduce the risk of banking crises at minimum intervention costs. To assess the optimal policy approach a normative benchmark for domestic banking regulation is developed in chapter 5, while chapter 6 studies the optimal coordination of regulators on a supranational level. The thesis concludes with an outlook on feasible and necessary institutional reforms to ensure financial stability. JEL-Numbers: D72, G18, G21, G28, P16. Keywords: Financial systems, lending, banking regulation, political economy. Acknowledgements During my doctoral studies and in the course of writing this dissertation, I have received a lot of comments, support and encouragement from several colleagues and friends. I am deeply indebted to all of them. First of all, I would like to thank Hans-Werner Sinn for his guidance and invaluable advice as well as for the lively discussions. I am furthermore very grateful for the chance to spend a research visit at Stanford University and greatly indebted to Steve Haber for inviting me: without them I would not have discovered my enthusiasm for the public choice perspective on bank regulation. Hans-Werner Sinn and Steve Haber are both incredibly inspiring researchers who encouraged and stimulated my research tremendously. Further thanks go to Christoph Trebesch for reading earlier versions of some parts of this dissertation and for his very valuable comments and suggestions. I benefited enormously from discussing with him. A particularly warm thanks goes to Martina Grass for doing all the important work behind the scenes, for always having a sympathetic ear and a smile for me. I also owe a debt of gratitude to my co-authors Ulf Maier (the model in section 4.2) and Eva Schliephake (the model in section 5.2 and 6.2, published in the Journal of Banking and Finance) with whom I had the great pleasure to work with. Furthermore, I owe thanks to Nikolaus Hildebrand for excellent research assistance. Together we developed the idea of bank-oriented financial systems. Thanks also to Ursula Baumann, Ulrike Gasser, Renate Meitner and Susanne Wormslev who provide valuable administrative assistance as well as to the student assistants at the Center for Economic Studies. My work furthermore benefited from very helpful comments and fruitful discussions with CES visitors, colleagues and friends who accompanied me through my time at Center for Economic Studies. I want to thank Nadjeschda Arnold, Beat Blankart, Andreas Bley, Andreas Blöchl, Jakob Eberl, Tim Eisert, Caroline Fohlin, Richard Grossman, Christa Hainz, Hendrik Hakenes, Darko Jus, Niels Krieghoff, Tim Lohse, Marcella Lucchetta, Gianni de Nicoló, Ben Orzelek, Ray Rees, Beatrice Scheubel, Isa- bel Schnabel, Moritz Schularick, Julian Schumacher and Daniel Singh. Moreover, I want to thank Daniele Montanari, Juliane Scheffel and Bert Wibel for their valuable suggestions, for their unconditional trust in me but in particular for being wonderful friends who made this work much easier. All the direct support mentioned so far could not have developed its value without the mental backing by my family. Above all, my parents Christiane and Wolfgang Buck are constant sources of energy through their unconditional trust in me and my abilities. I dedicate this dissertation to them. Florian Buck München, 23.06.2014 The Rents of Banking A Public Choice Approach to Bank Regulation Inaugural-Dissertation zur Erlangung des Grades Doctor oeconomiae publicae (Dr. oec. publ.) eingereicht an der Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität München 2014 vorgelegt von Florian Christopher Buck Referent: Professor Dr. Dr. h.c. mult. Hans-Werner Sinn Korreferent: Professor Stephen H. Haber, Ph.D. Promotionsabschlussberatung: 05.11.2014 1 Contents 1 Introduction 5 1.1 The challenge of bank regulation ..................... 5 1.2 A public choice view: Banks and rent-seeking .............. 6 1.3 Contributions and main findings ...................... 8 1.4 Summary of each chapter .......................... 10 2 The emergence of bank-oriented financial systems 15 2.1 Why do some economic systems depend on bank financing? ....... 15 2.1.1 The argument: Entry deterrence via legal protection ...... 17 2.1.2 Related literature .......................... 20 2.2 The economic model: Political power and legal protection . ...... 23 2.2.1 Structure of the model ....................... 23 2.2.2 Market equilibrium ......................... 25 2.2.3 Firms’ creation ........................... 26 2.2.4 Voting . ............................. 35 2.2.5 Policy implications ......................... 39 2.3 Empirical discussion ............................ 42 2.3.1 Results from ordinary least-squares regressions .......... 46 2.3.2 The historical perspective ..................... 49 2.4 Concluding remarks ............................. 58 3 The growth of banking 59 3.1 Why did banks become so powerful? ................... 59 3.1.1 The argument: The hysteresis of the safety net ......... 62 3.1.2 The economics of loss-shifting ................... 63 3.2 Building the safety net ........................... 64 3.2.1 Lender of last resort ........................ 64 3.2.2 Deposit insurance .......................... 67 3.2.3 Multinational resolution facilities ................. 73 3.3 Consequences ................................ 76 3.3.1 Minimize equity capital ....................... 79 3.3.2 Expanding the balance sheet .................... 83 3.3.3 Increase volatility .......................... 84 3.3.4 Getting interconnected ....................... 85 3.3.5 Path dependency and political influence ............. 87 3.4 Concluding remarks ............................. 90 4 The persistence of bank rents 93 4.1 What explains the pervasive policy influence of the banking industry? . 93 4.1.1 The argument: Interest group coalitions ............. 96 4.1.2 Related literature .......................... 101 4.2 The economic model: Financial repression and economic rents ..... 104 4.2.1 Structure of the model ....................... 104 4.2.2 Allocation of funds ......................... 106 4.2.3 Portfolio regulation ......................... 113 2 4.3 Electoral competition ............................ 117 4.3.1 The political game with lobbying ................. 117 4.3.2 Extensions .............................. 122 4.4 Discussion and implications ........................ 125 4.4.1 Empirical discussion ........................ 126 4.4.2 Modus operandi - the instruments of the lobby’s influence . 130 4.4.3 Policy lessons ............................ 135 4.5 Concluding remarks ............................. 136 5 Optimal national banking regulation 137 5.1 How can
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