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Inderes Yhtiöraportti Remedy Entertainment Company report 6/2018 Video game company for the Remedy company report 4.6.2018 long run Analysts Mikael Rautanen Remedy has progressed as planned in all its strategic objectives since the IPO a year ago. The +358 50 3460321 gaming projects have progressed as scheduled, and Remedy has advanced successfully to the simultaneous development of two large scale gaming projects. The company has a good [email protected] relationship with two strong publishers, with whom we believe the co-operation has gone well thus far. Although the progress of the strategy does not yet reflect in the company’s numbers Atte Riikola due to the developmental stage of the projects, the development going as planned has +358 44 5934500 substantially decreased Remedy’s risk level when compared to last year. We expect the multi- [email protected] project model strategy transition currently underway to start to bear fruit next year. We reiterate our buy recommendation and increase our target price to 8.50 EUR (previously 7.5 EUR). Recommendation and target price Not just a hit business Remedy is a gaming studio established in 1995, best known for its Max Payne, Alan Wake and Quantum Buy Break games. The company focuses on developing AAA (video games with the highest development Previous: Buy budget and promotion) games for PC and console platforms, with gaming enthusiasts being the main end users. Remedy differentiates from competitors with original story-driven third-person shooter action games. The contest for publishing contracts and buyer recognition is tough, but the entry barrier in 8,50 EUR Remedy’s segment is also high. This is due to the multi-year lead times in game development which Previous: 7.50 EUR requires technology, visibility and vast know-how in terms of success and financing. Competitive advantage and sustainability of the business model are supported by in-house game development technologies, publishing deals as well as sequels to own game brands. Share price: 7.30 EUR Potential: 16.4 % Uneventfulness has been a good thing for the last year After the IPO, Remedy has been busy implementing its multi-project strategy, where developing Key figures 2016 2017 2018e 2019e numerous projects simultaneously is in the spotlight. This requires financing a larger portion of development costs, which thereby enables the company to hold onto the IPR (intellectual property rights) Revenue 16,4 17,2 20,9 31,2 and thus enables Remedy to receive a larger portion of sales’ revenue. Remedy has a strong track record growth-% 19,4 % 4,6 % 21,5 % 49,6 % in developing quality games, but just as importantly also a good track in developing the games efficiently EBIT 3,9 2,0 0,0 7,7 with a relatively small budget, meaning that Remedy doesn’t have to hit multimillion sales numbers to be EBIT-% 24,0 % 11,7 % -0,2 % 24,7 % profitable. The company has been unable to tell much about upcoming games, but the underlying PTP 3,7 1,8 -0,2 7,6 business has progressed according to plan. The success of the strategy will be measured next year with EPS (EUR) 0,26 0,16 -0,01 0,50 the release of the self-owned P7 game project, which we cautiously expect to reach 1.5M unit sales Dividend (EUR) 0,05 0,00 0,00 0,20 volumes. This translates to revenue in excess of 30 MEUR and an EBIT of 7.7 MEUR (EBIT-% 25%) in 2019. P/E (adj.) - 52,9 neg. 14,5 Valuation still tempting in terms of FY19 P/B - 3,6 4,1 3,2 On a whole, we find the risk/reward ratio tempting when considering the substantial value creation EV/S - 3,3 3,2 2,0 potential offered, providing the strategy is successful. The risks are however high, as is common with EV/EBITDA - 20,5 404,1 7,7 gaming companies. Remedy operates in a market that reacts quickly to development in both technology EV/EBIT - 22,1 neg. 7,9 and consumer behavior. With the current share price, the FY19 P/E estimate is 14.5x and the EV/EBIT Dividend yield-% - 0,0 % 0,0 % 2,8 % multiple is 7.9x, which still offer a tempting upside potential should our estimates materialize. Source: Inderes Global gaming market (BUSD) Revenue and EBIT-% CAGR 11 % 45 30% 180 166 40 25% 152 35 138 20% 122 30 107 25 15% 20 MEUR 10% 15 5% 10 0% 5 0 -5% 2015 2016 2017 2018e 2019e 2020e 2021e 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 LiikevaihtoRevenue Liikevoitto-%EBIT-% Source: Newzoo Source: Inderes Value Risk factors Valuation Revenue EBIT drivers 31 M€ 7.7 M€ 2019e 2019e ◼ Transition in value chain to ◼ Gaming projects failing or ◼ Industry relative valuations a stronger position, larger being delayed rising portion of sales income ◼ Dependence on publisher ◼ Strong value creation ◼ Multi-project model ◼ Dependence on success of potential providing provides continuity and single games successful game sales EV/S EV/EBIT diversifies risks. ◼ Technology and market ◼ Requires perseverance, ◼ Strong track record in trends valuation should be 2.0x 7.9x developing successful ◼ Business model transition observed from 2019 view- 2019e 2019e games still unproven point ◼ In-house technology platform provides Source: Inderes scalability and competitive 3 advantage Table of contents Remedy in short p. 5 Company description and business model p. 6-13 Investment profile p. 14-16 Markets and competition p. 17-26 Strategy p. 27-32 Financial status p. 33-34 Estimates and valuation p. 35-39 P&L statement, balance sheet and DCF p. 40-44 Disclaimer p. 45 4 Remedy in short Remedy has specialized in developing story-driven single-player action games for PC, Xbox, and PlayStation platforms. 1996 2001 2003 2010 1995 78/100 ESTABLISHED Metacritic score Death Rally Max Payne Max Payne 2 Alan Wake 8 RELEASES 2011 2012 2014 2016 DURING THE COMPANY’S HISTORY Death Rally Alan Wake: Agents of Quantum 17.2 MEUR (+4.6 % vs. 2016) Mobile American Storm Break REVENUE Nightmare Revenue and profitability 20 30% 2.0 MEUR (EBIT-% 11.7) 18 16 25% OPERATING PROFIT 2017 14 20% 12 10 15% MEUR 8 164 3 6 10% EMPLOYEES 5/2018 GAMES UNDER 4 5% DEVELOPMENT 2 0 0% 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 LiikevaihtoRevenue EBIT-% Source: Inderes, Remedy 5 Company description 1/3 Company description shorter, entry barriers lower, target groups and experience had to be altered mid-project, the market are different, and the business model leading to a release delay of one year. The costs Respected game studio is based on free downloads usually driven by in- of the delay came out of Remedy’s pocket, game micro transactions. resulting in no revenue in 2008. Remedy Entertainment (Remedy) is a Finnish video game developer founded in 1995. It is one Long history has matured the company into an Microsoft published Alan Wake in the spring of of the oldest and most recognized game experienced game studio 2010, the same day Rockstar’s hit game Red developers in Finland, best known for its Max Dead Redemption hit the shelves (Metacritic: Payne games, Death Rally, Alan Wake, the add- Remedy’s first game, Death Rally, was released 95/100). This partially gnawed Alan Wake’s on Alan Wake American Nightmare, as well as in 1996. Before the 2001 release on their first hit sales, but it was a moderate success financially Quantum Break which was released in 2016. game, Max Payne, Remedy was learning the ins nonetheless. To this day, a loyal fan base is Remedy’s revenue for 2017 was 17.2 MEUR and and outs of operating in the gaming market, how patiently waiting for a sequel, with Remedy still operating profit 2.0 MEUR (EBIT-%: 11.7 %). The differentiation is achieved and how to cultivate a holding the IP. company employed 164 people in May 2018. 12 unique culture. With Max Payne, the company outsourced employees are working on the learned what it takes to create a story-driven hit Partnering with Microsoft last decade was a gaming projects in addition to the in-house game. Building upon this basis, a culture of worthy choice, as Xbox 360 was well received personnel. ingenuity and creativity was formed, one that among the contemporary generation of can integrate and absorb American pop culture consoles, but with Alan Wake Remedy was Remedy is best known for story-driven action into its themes. Max Payne was a hit, and with dependent on Microsoft’s strategy. Microsoft games, being one of the most respected studios the hit sequel Max Payne 2, the company was supposed to publish Alan Wake for PC, but in the premium games category. As a distinction understood the importance of sequels in game made a strategy call to emphasize Xbox instead, of this, the Max Payne Hollywood movie hit the development. Developing a sequel is easier, resulting in a notable delay of the PC release. big screens in 2008, when game-based movies and often sequels fare even better than the Remedy decided to develop an add-on for the were still a rarity. The internal driving force and original. Remedy sold the IP of Max Payne in PC independently, and this proved successful ambition to develop unique, high-quality story 2002, continuing to develop the game up until with 2012 revenue reaching 15.5 MEUR. Through driven games is reflected in Remedy’s Metacritic 2003. Following the divestment of the IP, the the Microsoft partnership Remedy learned the score of 78/100.
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