NC Water Resources Planning SC Natural Resources Society – Discussion on Statewide Water Resources Management

February 24, 2011

Tom Fransen Division of Water Resources One of the Drivers For NC’s Planning Drought Critical Period Summer of 2002

Under global warming drought could overtake much of the world by 2030. UCAR 10/19/2010 Surface Water Gaging Ground Water Monitoring • Gage downstream of • Monitoring well at Jordan Dam. Maury Prison.

3 Water Withdrawals http://www.ncwater.org/Water_Withdrawals/

All Withdrawals

Industrial & Thermal Power Withdrawals 4 Local Water Supply Plans Local Water Supply Plans

The Old Planning Process

The New Planning Process

Water Supply Planning

River Basin Modeling Water Resources Planning & Modeling

Water Supply Planning

River Basin Modeling River Basin Water Supply Planning/Modeling is a tool to:

• Support long range, sustainable management of North Carolina’s river basins • Provide a reliable, quantitative method to plan for sustainable water use • Provide an objective basis for management and regulatory decisions Modeling Basics Questions Hydrologic Cycle • Is there enough water to sustain expected uses now and in the future? • DWR does consider ecologic flows to be part of “expected uses”. • Where, when and for how long could we expect to experience shortages? Hydrologic River Basin Modeling Software

OASIS – A modeling program for simulating water supply systems.

OASIS’ Flexibility In Simulating Reservoir Operations Is One Of The Reasons We Selected It As Our Preferred Model. Basin Modeling Limits

• Basin Model is not a water quality model. – OASIS can be linked to a water quality model. – The outputs can be used to define boundary conditions to a water quality model. • The OASIS general is not the model for flood studies. – OASIS does use channel geometry which is needed to flood stages associated with flooding events. – OASIS has been successfully on the Lower Roanoke for flood plain flooding. • The OASIS does not simulate ground water. – OASIS can be linked to a ground water model. – The outputs can be used to define boundary conditions to a ground water model. Hydrologic Stationarity

• Key Assumption – The future will be statistically indistinguishable from the past. • Is stationarity dead? – Climate change and coping with non-stationarity in water and ecosystem management. Practical Applications of Modeling

• Determine the impacts of new & existing water withdrawals and wastewater discharges. • Determine potential shortfalls based on projected uses detailed in Local Water Supply Plan. • Scientifically defensible means of generating daily stream flows for ungaged stream segments. • Safe yield estimates for run-of-the-river intakes and water supply impoundments. • Develop and test drought management plans.

Risk Based Drought Management

Benefits to Local Governments Example – SEPA EA/EIS

• Common analysis tool to study the impacts of new and expanding projects. • Saves the cost developing a new model for project. • Value added approach. • Open approach, easier for everyone to understand the assumptions and interpretation of the results. • Reduces agency review time.

15 Broader State Policies

• Since the models include both withdrawals and discharges. We can look at the quantity interactions and unintended consequences of new/changes in policy. – Example – Increase in reclaimed water. – Example – Changes in ecological flow requirements. • A base for better interstate cooperation. Broader State Policies - IBT

The image most people have when they think about Interbasin transfer.

The NC reality.

Current IBT regulations impact the ability to create regional water systems and complicate drought mitigation.

17 Modeling and Planning Can Help Prevent This

… If Instream Flows and Uses are Included in the Equation WATER RESOURCES BASIN PLANNING IS NOT

.rulemaking, .legislation, (or) .permitting and is generally not encumbered by the more formal procedures and legal requirements that such actions usually entail However, The planning process and methods should possess such process legitimacy as would lend its use for such future actions as might be indicated or become relevant.

WHAT IS THE PLANNING HORIZON FOR THE WATER RESOURCES BASIN PLAN?

. The River Basin Water Resources Plan is a long range plan.

. The planning horizon is 50 years.

. The longer time period allows the time - to address the complex and expensive steps to plan, permit, finance, and construct the infrastructure and other improvements

- to permit, create, expand, and/or interconnect water intake and discharge facilities (and)

- to allow for stakeholder participation throughout the process. WHAT ARE THE OBJECTIVES OF WATER RESOURCES BASIN PLANNING?

The primary objectives of water resources basin planning are:

. to identify times and areas when the water supply might not meet the projected demand;

. to plan for and address stresses due do climatic variability such as drought and/or other identifiable emergencies;

. to evaluate and consider ecological flows; (and)

. to evaluate the impact on water-based recreation. Model & Plan Development Schedule Model Plan Tar-Pamlico River Basin Complete Complete Broad River Basin 2011 2012 Broad River Basin Tar-Pamlico River Basin 2011 2012 Cape Fear River Basin Neuse River Basin 2012 2013 Neuse River Basin 2012 2013 Cape Fear River Basin Roanoke River Basin 2012 2013 Hiwassee River Basin 2013 2014 Roanoke River Basin Little Tennessee River Basin 2013 2014 Basin Little Tennessee River Basin 2014 2015 Lumber River Basin 2014 2015 Hiwassee River Basin New River Basin 2015 2016 Watauga River Basin 2015 2016 Lumber River Basin Savannah River Basin 2016 2017 Catawba River Basin 2016 2017 French Broad River Basin Albemarle Sound 2018 2019 Chowan River Basin 2018 2019 Watauga River Basin Onslow Bay 2018 2019 New River Basin Yadkin- Basin 2019 2020

Catawba River Basin

Savannah River Basin

Onslow Bay Model

Chowan River Basin Plan

Albemarle Sound

Yadkin-Pee Dee River Basin

1/2010 1/2011 1/2012 12/2012 1/2014 1/2015 1/2016 12/2016 1/2018 1/2019 1/2020 12/2020 1/2022 Slide - 23 Challenges of Current Program • Incorporation of Ecological Flows. – How much water needs to be left in the river? – Not a single number – a seasonal flow regime. – Complex issue for all States to address. • Full incorporation of groundwater impacts. • Incorporation of climate change. • Resource limitations - Staffing • IT changes high potential to cause major problems. – Server Consolidation – Staffing

3-25-2011 24 Questions

Contact Information Tom Fransen 919-715-0381 After December 26th New Phone Number 919-707-9015 [email protected] www.ncwater.org