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Outlook on Climate Change Adaptation in the Tropical Andes Mountains

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Outlook on Climate Change Adaptation in the Tropical Andes Mountains MOUNTAIN ADAPTATION OUTLOOK SERIES Outlook on climate change adaptation in the Tropical Andes mountains 1 Summits of the Iliniza volcano, Ecuador 2 Foreword Mountain ecosystems enrich the lives of over half of The result of a broad assessment process By the end of this century, the coldest years in the the world’s population as a source of water, energy, involving national governments and regional and Tropical Andes Mountains will be warmer than the agriculture and other essential goods and services. international experts, the reports offer concrete warmest years to which humans and other species Unfortunately, while the impact of climate change is recommendations for adaptation. This includes have adapted so far. A vast variety of ecosystems are accentuated at high altitude, such regions are often sharing regional good practices with the potential found in these mountains, including the Amazon on the edge of decision-making, partly due to their for wider replication to improve cost efficiency and basin, snow-capped peaks and more arid areas isolation, inaccessibility and relative poverty. adaptation capacity. like the Atacama Desert, the world’s driest. These support the lives of tens of millions of people, That is why the United Nations Environment While each of the regions is covered in a dedicated so cooperation and information sharing among Programme and GRID-Arendal have partnered report, they all face similar issues. On one hand, rising Andean countries are crucial for the health of on a series of outlook reports about the need for temperatures and changing precipitation patterns these ecosystems, which is why assistance from the urgent action to protect mountain ecosystems and to affect a range of mountain ecosystems, including respective governments has been much appreciated mitigate human risk from extreme events. Covering forests, grasslands and lakes. On the other, drivers in creating this report. the Western Balkans, Southern Caucasus, Central such as pollution from mining and unsustainable Asia, (Tropical) Andes and Eastern Africa, the agriculture erode their ability to cope with these We hope that this report will serve as a practical reports assess the effectiveness of existing adaptation changes. The combined impact is increasing companion for local, regional and national policy policy measures and the extent to which they apply vulnerability among the local and downstream makers seeking to protect fragile mountain to mountain landscapes, going on to identify critical populations who depend on mountain ecosystems ecosystems and the people who depend on them. gaps that must be addressed to meet current and – especially when they are isolated from markets, future risks from climate change. services and decision-making institutions. Achim Steiner H.E. Andrä Rupprechter UNEP Executive Director and Under-Secretary- Austrian Federal Minister of Agriculture, Forestry, General of the United Nations Environment and Water Management 3 Executive summary The Tropical Andes are the home to many diverse The Tropical Andes will experience some of the in the drier Altiplano area and northeast. The rainy communities, from remote farming villages to large most drastic climate changes in South America. season in the Altiplano area is also becoming more urban centres and capitals, such as Merida, Bogotá, By the end of this century, the coldest years in the concentrated, and the dry season longer. Quito, Cusco and La Paz. In total, about 60 million Tropical Andes mountains will be warmer than the people live between 1,000 to 4,500 meters. The warmest years to which humans and other species The Tropical Andes are among the world’s climate in the region is tropical, with low seasonal have adapted so far. Different climate models all biodiversity hotspots most vulnerable to climate variation in temperatures. However, there is strong indicate warming everywhere, but there is much change. These mountains contain a wide spectrum seasonality of precipitation, in particular in the more uncertainty when it comes to projections of of microclimates, harbouring a unique diversity of Peruvian Andes. In Colombia and Venezuela, the precipitation and seasonality. However, the general ecosystems. Glaciers, high mountain grasslands, Andes are generally more humid, while the Altiplano trend across the region is that precipitation will mountain forests, rivers, lakes and wetlands provide and the Bolivian Andes are drier. increase in the already wet northwest and decrease essential services for society. Therefore, damage from climate change on these ecosystems can consequently harm society. To adapt successfully to climate change, mountain ecosystem services and mountain communities must be recognized and protected. Key risks from climate change Change in precipitation regime will have serious implications for the provision of water for drinking, sanitation, agriculture, energy and industries. Temperature increase in turn will alternate the biochemical composition of soil and vegetation; hereby changing its capacity to regulate water flows. Extreme events, albeit not only caused by climate change, will further reduce the capacity of the soil and vegetation to prevent landslides. Glacier melt releases heavy metals into water flows which can pose health risks for those using the water. The increase and concentration of the demand for water and other resources will be amplified by population growth and urbanization. Peru Water availability is essential to all key economic activities in the Tropical Andes, especially for 4 Climate change in the Tropical Andes 1950-2000 1950-2000 1950-2000 VENEZUELA VENEZUELA VENEZUELA COLOMBIA COLOMBIA COLOMBIA ECUADOR Annual temperature distribution ECUADOR Annual rainfall distribution ECUADOR Seasonality* Millimetres ˚C 500 2000 4000 Percentage 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 0 1000 3000 5000 0 30 40 60 80 100 PERU PERU PERU BOLIVIA BOLIVIA BOLIVIA *Precipitation of the wettest consecutive three months divided by annual precipitation Projection for Projection for Projection for 2061-2080 2061-2080 2061-2080 VENEZUELA RCP 8.5 VENEZUELA RCP 8.5 VENEZUELA RCP 8.5 COLOMBIA COLOMBIA COLOMBIA ECUADOR ECUADOR ECUADOR Projected temperature change* Projected precipitation change Projected seasonality* change** ˚C Percentage Percentage points 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 -40 -20 -10 0 10 20 40 -10 -5 0 1 2 3 4 5 7 PERU PERU PERU BOLIVIA BOLIVIA BOLIVIA *Climate models *Agreement *Agreement agree well on between climate Sources: worldclim.org. Maps have between climate direction of change models can be low been produced within the SMD4GC models can be low program at UZH (Switzerland) 5 Roseau Tens of millions of people rely on water and Castries other services flowing down the Tropical Water stress in the Tropical Andes Andes Mountains. Sustainable mountain development should be a priority, given the Caracas multitude of ecosystem goods and services VENEZUELA the Andes provide, not only to those living in the high sierra, but also to the millions COLOMBIA Paramaribo living downstream. Bogota GUYANA hydropower, which generates the majority of the electricity in the region. Mining is another key Equator economic activity in the Tropical Andes, which relies Quito heavily on water resources. In areas where water is becoming scarce, inclusive management systems are ECUADOR necessary to prevent conflict between stakeholders. BRAZIL PERU Agriculture is among the most important subsistent and economic activities in the Tropical Andes, and one Water stress of the sectors that is most affected by climate change. Percent of water withdrawal Tubers, such as potatoes and oca, are particularly on water availability Less than 10 vulnerable to warming. As the mountains become 10 to 20 warmer, crops need to be moved to higher elevations. 20 to 40 Warming is also threatening high mountain 40 to 80 More than 80 grasslands, which are particularly important for Lima pastoral communities and water regulation. Arid land (low water use) Dams Agricultural problems affect some of the poorest and Capacity, billion cubic metres BOLIVIA most vulnerable to food-insecurity, with substantial 1 10 50 135 negative effects on human health. Furthermore, La Paz insects and vector borne diseases have moved upwards in elevation as the climate has warmed. Sucre Malaria, dengue fever and other diseases will therefore become more prominent in the mountains. Baseline water stress measures total annual water withdrawals (municipal, industrial, and agricultural) expressed as a percentage of the total annual available blue water. Higher values indicate more competition among users. Extreme climatic events are predicted to increase in Sources: WRI Aqueduct; FAO AQUASTAT; NASA GLDAS-2 Tropic of Capricorn strength and can in turn cause floods, droughts and 6 Deforestation in the Tropical Andes region VENEZUELA Forest and forest loss areas Intact forest landscape* COLOMBIA Peru Other forest cover Net forest loss (2000-2014) Annual deforestation rate Percentage industries and increases the costs of hazardous 0,4 events and adaptation policies. Furthermore, remote 2001-2005 mountain areas are often under-prioritized by central governments. Adaptation, targeting mountain ECUADOR BRAZIL 0,2 2006-2010 specific environments, is currently underdeveloped but is necessary to avoid the above risks. Because of the complex topography in mountainous 0 regions, available climate models are often too coarse Forest and forest loss extent PERU to provide precise and less ambiguous projections Thousands square kilometres,
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