Clouds in Current and in a Warming Climate Caroline Muller
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Clouds in current and in a warming climate Caroline Muller To cite this version: Caroline Muller. Clouds in current and in a warming climate. Fundamental Aspects of Turbulent Flows in Climate, Volume 108, August 2017, 2020. hal-03023276 HAL Id: hal-03023276 https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-03023276 Submitted on 25 Nov 2020 HAL is a multi-disciplinary open access L’archive ouverte pluridisciplinaire HAL, est archive for the deposit and dissemination of sci- destinée au dépôt et à la diffusion de documents entific research documents, whether they are pub- scientifiques de niveau recherche, publiés ou non, lished or not. The documents may come from émanant des établissements d’enseignement et de teaching and research institutions in France or recherche français ou étrangers, des laboratoires abroad, or from public or private research centers. publics ou privés. 1 Clouds in current and in a warming climate Caroline Muller CNRS, Laboratoire de M´et´eorologie Dynamique, Ecole´ Normale Sup´erieure Paris Lecturer picture from the summer school to be added 2 short lecture title 1.1 Introduction We see them in our everyday lives. They make skies and sunsets even more beauti- ful, inspiring painters all over the world. But what are clouds? What are the physical processes occuring within a cloud? Do they all look alike, or are there different types of clouds? Why? Beyond our small human scale, how are clouds distributed at large, planetary scales? How do they couple and interact with the large-scale circulation of the atmosphere? What do the physics of cloud formation tell us about the hydrolog- ical cycle, including mean and extreme precipitation, in our current climate and in a warming world? What role do they play in the global energetics of the planet, for instance by reflecting the incoming shortwave radiation from the sun, and by reducing the outgoing longwave radiation to space, because of their high altitudes and thus cold temperatures? These are the questions that will be addressed in these five lectures. The two first lectures will review well-understood aspects of cloud distribution and physics, which can also be found in various classical textbooks (which will be referred to at the relevant places). More specifically, the first lecture, Cloud fundamentals, will describe the fundamental properties of clouds: global distribution, cloud types, cloud visualization from satellites in space, and link with the large-scale circulation. The second lecture, Cloud formation and physics, will focus on the physics of clouds. We will briefly review the important results from atmospheric thermodynamics, and their implications for convective instability and cloud formation. Then the last three lectures will address three key open questions about clouds in our current and in a warming climate. The third lecture, Organization of deep convection at mesoscales, addresses the issue of spatial organization of convection (here and in the following, convection refers to overturning of air within which clouds are embedded). The most spectacular example of organized convection is arguably the tropical cyclone, with its eye devoid of deep clouds, surrounded by the eyewall where winds among the strongest on the planet are found. Despite the extreme weather and thus the strong societal impact of organized convection, the physical processes at stake are not fully understood. Recent advances on this topic will be presented. Clouds are also tightly linked with precipitation and the fourth lecture, Response of the hydrological cycle to climate change, will review recent results on the response of the hydrological cycle to climate change, including both mean and extreme precipitation. The fifth and last lecture, Clouds in a changing climate, will review the effect of clouds on climate sensitivity (climate sensitivity refers to the temperature increase at equilibrium in response to a doubling of carbon dioxide concentrations), how this effect is quantified, as well as recent theoretical advances on the response of clouds to climate change including the so-called “fixed anvil temperature" or FAT hypothesis. These last three topics are still very active areas of research, and for each we will review the state-of-the-art and present some recent advances made possible in recent years by the increased computational power as well as increased fundamental understanding of moist convection. Cloud fundamentals 3 1.2 Cloud fundamentals 1.2.1 Spatial distribution of clouds : overview What are clouds? The definition from the World Meteorological Organization of a cloud is a \hydrometeor consisting of minute particles of liquid water or ice, or of both, suspended in the atmosphere and usually not touching the ground. It may also include larger particles of liquid water or ice, as well as non-aqueous liquid or solid particles such as those present in fumes, smoke or dust." In other words, clouds are suspensions of liquid and ice water in the atmosphere. Note that, although there is water vapor in clouds - in fact there is water vapor everywhere in the troposphere-, this is not what we see. Indeed our eyes are not sensitive to water vapor, instead what makes a cloud visible are the liquid and/or ice particles that it contains. Looking at a daily weather map of deep clouds, see e.g. the website (EUMETSAT, 2017), confirms the diversity of cloud dynamics (see figure 1.1 for a snapshot). This map shows a one-year long evolution of weather and clouds derived from infrared satellite measurements, which are sensitive to cloud top temperatures, thus to high and deep clouds reaching cold high altitudes. The distribution of clouds is not uniform, and varies greatly with latitude. The rich dynamics of deep clouds include small-scale, \pop-corn" like, deep convec- tion in the tropics, notably convection associated with the diurnal cycle above tropical continents (e.g. central Africa close to the equator). In the tropics, corresponding to the rising branch of the Hadley circulation known as the inter-tropical convergence zone (ITCZ), deep clouds yield cold cloud-top temperatures. Deep clouds can span the whole depth of the troposphere, from the top of the planetary boundary layer, to the tropopause, around 15 km at tropical latitudes. Also notable at mid latitudes (around ±45◦ latitude) are large-scale cloud sys- tems associated with extra-tropical cyclones and their associated frontal systems. Deep clouds are embedded in frontal low and high pressure systems typical of those lati- tudes. More precisely clouds and high water vapor concentrations can be found on the eastward side of cold fronts. Smaller cloud areal coverage is found in the subtropics (centered around ±30◦ latitude), i.e. in the subsiding branch of the Hadley circulation, as can also be seen in the time-mean spatial distribution of cloud amounts and cloud top temperatures figure 1.2. The data is from the ISCCP project, whose website provides useful information and data on clouds (ISCCP, 2009; Rossow and Schiffer, 1999). In the subtropics, warmer cloud-top temperatures are consistent with the occurence of shallow clouds (typically one to two kilometers in height). Globally, clouds cover a large fraction of our planet, about two thirds (figure 1.2). The zonal mean makes clear that high cloud coverage is found in the tropics (close to the equator, within 10◦ latitude or so) and at mid latitudes (centered around ±45◦ latitude). The largest cloud cover is over the southern ocean, and more generally larger cloudiness is found over oceans than over land. Clouds are thus key actors of the climate system, as they cover a significant fraction of the planet. Indeed, depending on their thickness and their height, clouds can interact with the Earth radiation budget in different ways. Clouds cool the planet by reflecting 4 short lecture title Fig. 1.1 Snapshot from the 2017 \Year of Weather" online one-year long animation of high clouds from satellites. c EUMETSAT 2017. ISCCP-D2: 1983/07-2009/12 Mean Annual Zonal Means ISCCP-D2: 1983/07-2009/12 Mean Annual Zonal Means Mean cloud amount % Mean cloud amount % Cloud top temperature K Cloud top temperature K Fig. 1.2 Time-averaged (1983 to 2009 estimated from ISCCP) distribution of cloud amount (fractional area covered by clouds, left) and cloud top temperatures (right) as a function of latitude and longitude. Also shown are zonal means as a function of latitude (blue curves). From ISCCP data (Rossow and Schiffer, 1999). some of the incoming shortwave radiation from the sun. Clouds also warm the planet by trapping some of the longwave radiation emitted at the Earth surface, thus reducing the radiative cooling to space. Those radiative effects of clouds make them crucial ingredients of the global energetics. We will come back to this in the last lecture x1.6. Consistently, understanding clouds, their coupling with a large-scale circulation, and how it impacts climate sensitivity, has been identified as one of the World Cli- mate Research Programme (WCRP) grand challenge (Bony, Stevens, Frierson, Jakob, Cloud fundamentals 5 Kageyama, Pincus, Shepherd, Sherwood, Siebesma, Sobel et al., 2015). WCRP grand challenges represent areas of emphasis in scientific research in the coming decade, identifying specific barriers preventing progress in a critical area of climate science. 1.2.2 Cloud classification Clouds are classified based on their appearance and altitude (Houze Jr, 2014). The classification is based on five latin roots: • Cumulus: heap, pile; • Stratus: flatten out, cover with a layer; • Cirrus: lock of hair, tuft of horsehair; • Nimbus: precipitating cloud; • Altum: height. Cumulus refers to clouds with some vertical extent, typically resembling \cotton balls". Stratus refers to clouds with some horizontal extent, typically with a flat large horizon- tal cover. Cirrus characterizes the thin, filamentary aspect of the highest clouds almost entirely composed of ice crystals. Nimbus simply indicates precipitation reaching the ground, and altum is used to characterize mid-level clouds.