Air Quality Assessment Deltaport Terminal, Road and Rail Improvement Project

Final Report

Prepared for: Port Metro Vancouver 100 The Pointe, 999 Canada Place Vancouver, BC V6C 3T4

Prepared by: SENES Consultants Limited 1338 West Broadway, Suite 303 Vancouver, BC V6H 1H2

October 2012 (Blank Page)

AIR QUALITY ASSESSMENT DELTAPORT TERMINAL, ROAD AND RAIL IMPROVEMENT PROJECT

Prepared for:

Port Metro Vancouver 100 The Pointe, 999 Canada Place Vancouver, BC Canada V6C 3T4

Prepared by:

SENES Consultants Limited 1338 West Broadway, Suite 303 Vancouver, B.C. V6H 1H2

October 2012

Printed on Recycled Paper Containing Post-Consumer Fibre

AIR QUALITY ASSESSMENT DELTAPORT TERMINAL, ROAD AND RAIL IMPROVEMENT PROJECT

Prepared for:

Port Metro Vancouver 100 The Pointe, 999 Canada Place Vancouver, BC Canada V6C 3T4

Prepared by:

SENES Consultants Limited 1338 West Broadway, Suite 303 Vancouver, B.C. V6H 1H2

______Bohdan W. Hrebenyk, M.Sc. Sandy Willis, M.Eng., P.Eng. Manager, B.C. Office Senior Environmental Engineer

October 2012

Printed on Recycled Paper Containing Post-Consumer Fibre Air Quality Assessment Deltaport Terminal, Road and Rail Improvement Project

TABLE OF CONTENTS Page No.

GLOSSARY OF ACRONYMS AND ABBREVIATIONS ...... vii

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ...... x

1.0 INTRODUCTION ...... 1-1

2.0 AIR QUALITY IN THE LOWER FRASER VALLEY...... 2-1 2.1 Air Quality trends ...... 2-1 2.1.1 Carbon Monoxide (CO) ...... 2-1 2.1.2 Nitrogen Oxides (NOx)...... 2-2

2.1.3 Sulphur Dioxide (SO2) ...... 2-3

2.1.4 Ground-level Ozone (O3) ...... 2-4 2.1.5 Volatile Organic Compounds (VOCs) ...... 2-5

2.1.6 Ammonia (NH3) ...... 2-6 2.1.7 Greenhouse Gases (GHG) ...... 2-6

2.1.8 Particulate Matter (PM10 and PM2.5) ...... 2-6 2.2 Air Quality in Tsawwassen ...... 2-8 2.3 Hourly Averaged Concentrations ...... 2-12 2.4 8-Hour and Daily Averaged Concentrations...... 2-18 2.5 Summary ...... 2-20

3.0 REGULATORY INITIATIVES IN FUTURE EMISSION SCENARIOS ...... 3-1 3.1 Marine Engines ...... 3-1 3.2 Cargo Handling Equipment (CHE) ...... 3-2 3.2.1 DTRRIP CHE ...... 3-2 3.2.2 CEA CHE...... 3-2 3.3 On-Road Vehicles ...... 3-2 3.3.1 Container Trucks ...... 3-3 3.3.2 Employee-owned Vehicles ...... 3-3 3.4 Rail Locomotives ...... 3-4

4.0 DTRRIP EMISSION INVENTORY ASSESSMENT...... 4-1 4.1 DTRRIP Annual Emission Inventory ...... 4-1

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4.1.1 DTRRIP Local Annual Emissions ...... 4-5 4.1.2 DTRRIP Regional Annual Emissions ...... 4-15 4.2 Construction Phase Emissions ...... 4-24

5.0 EMISSION INVENTORY FOR CUMULATIVE EFFECTS ASSESSMENT ...... 5-1 5.1 CEA Local Annual Emission Inventory ...... 5-1 5.2 CEA Regional Annual Emission Inventory ...... 5-11 5.3 Fugitive Coal Dust Emissions ...... 5-20 5.4 VAFFC Emission Inventory ...... 5-23

6.0 SHORT-TERM LOCAL EMISSIONS ASSESSMENT ...... 6-1 6.1 Hourly DTRRIP Local Emission Inventory ...... 6-3 6.2 Daily DTRRIP Local Emission Inventory ...... 6-12 6.3 Hourly CEA Local Emission Inventory ...... 6-21 6.4 Daily CEA Emission Inventory ...... 6-30 6.5 Emissions Along Major Road and Rail Corridors ...... 6-39 6.5.1 DTRRIP Roadside Emissions ...... 6-39 6.5.2 DTRRIP Rail Corridor Emissions ...... 6-42 6.5.3 CEA Roadside Emission Rates ...... 6-43 6.5.4 CEA Rail Corridor Emissions ...... 6-46

7.0 AMBIENT AIR QUALITY IMPACTS ASSESSMENT ...... 7-1 7.1 Anticipated Changes in Air Quality at Station T39 ...... 7-1 7.1.1 Source-Receptor Relationships at English Bluff ...... 7-1 7.1.2 DTRRIP Hourly Emission Scenarios...... 7-4 7.1.3 DTRRIP Daily Emissions Scenarios ...... 7-7 7.1.4 CEA Hourly Emission Scenarios ...... 7-9 7.1.5 CEA Daily Emission Scenarios ...... 7-12 7.2 CEA Fugitive Coal Dust Impacts on Air Quality in Tsawwassen ...... 7-14 7.3 Anticipated Changes in Air Quality along Road and Rail Corridors...... 7-15 7.3.1 DTRRIP Roadside Air Quality Impacts ...... 7-17 7.3.2 DTRRIP Rail Corridor Air Quality Impacts ...... 7-31 7.3.3 CEA Roadside Air Quality Impacts ...... 7-38 7.3.4 CEA Rail Corridor Air Quality Impacts ...... 7-53 7.4 Fugitive Dust from Coal Trains ...... 7-58

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8.0 DTRRIP CONSTRUCTION PHASE EMISSIONS ...... 8-1

9.0 REFERENCES ...... 9-1

LIST OF TABLES Page No. Table 1.1 – Case Cargo Volume Comparison ...... 1-3 Table 2.1 – Observed 1-hour Average Concentrations (µg/m3) for Station T39 (June 2010 – May 2011) ...... 2-13 Table 2.2 – Observed 8-hour & 24-hour Average Concentrations (µg/m3) for Station T39 (June 2010 – May 2011) ...... 2-19 Table 3.1 – TLS Program Requirements for Trucks at Port Metro Vancouver ...... 3-3 Table 4.1 – DTRRIP Local Annual Emissions, tonnes/year ...... 4-8 Table 4.2 – DTRRIP Regional Annual Emissions, tonnes/year ...... 4-17 Table 5.1 – CEA Local Annual Emissions, tonnes/year ...... 5-4 Table 5.2 – CEA Regional Annual Emissions, tonnes/year ...... 5-13 Table 5.3 – Estimated Fugitive Coal Dust Emissions from the Westshore Terminal ...... 5-21 Table 5.4 – Summary of Net Emission Changes due to VAFFC ...... 5-23 Table 6.1 – Assumptions on Daily and Hourly Activities at Roberts Bank ...... 6-2 Table 6.2 – Maximum Hourly DTRRIP Emissions, kg/hour ...... 6-5 Table 6.3 – Average Hourly DTRRIP Emissions, kg/hour ...... 6-6 Table 6.4 – Maximum Daily DTRRIP Emissions, kg/day ...... 6-14 Table 6.5 – Average Daily DTRRIP Emissions, kg/day ...... 6-15 Table 6.6 – Maximum Hourly CEA Emissions, kg/hour...... 6-23 Table 6.7 – Average Hourly CEA Emissions, kg/hour ...... 6-24 Table 6.8 – Maximum Daily CEA Emissions, kg/day...... 6-32 Table 6.9 – Average Daily CEA Emissions, kg/day ...... 6-33 Table 6.10 – Estimated DTRRIP Roadside Emission Rates...... 6-41 Table 6.11 – Estimated DTRRIP Rail Corridor Emission Rates ...... 6-43 Table 6.12 – Estimated CEA Roadside Emission Rates ...... 6-45 Table 6.13 – Estimated CEA Rail Corridor Emission Rates ...... 6-47

Table 7.1 – Source-Receptor Relationship for SO2 Emissions at Roberts Bank ...... 7-2 Table 7.2 - Source-Receptor Relationship for Fugitive Coal Dust Emissions at Roberts Bank .. 7-4

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Table 7.3 – Estimated DTRRIP Hourly Averaged Concentrations at T39 ...... 7-6 Table 7.4 – Estimated DTRRIP Daily Averaged Concentrations at T39 ...... 7-8 Table 7.5 – Estimated CEA Hourly Averaged Concentrations at T39 ...... 7-11 Table 7.6 – Estimated CEA Daily Averaged Concentrations at T39 ...... 7-13 Table 7.7 - Maximum Projected Incremental Daily Impact of Fugitive Dust Emissions ...... 7-15 Table 7.8 – Estimated DTRRIP Incremental Average Hour CO Roadside Impacts ...... 7-19 Table 7.9 – Estimated DTRRIP Incremental Peak Hour CO Roadside Impacts ...... 7-20

Table 7.10 – Estimated DTRRIP Incremental Average Hour NO2 Roadside Impacts ...... 7-21

Table 7.11 – Estimated DTRRIP Incremental Peak Hour NO2 Roadside Impacts ...... 7-22

Table 7.12 – Estimated DTRRIP Incremental Average Hour SO2 Roadside Impacts ...... 7-23

Table 7.13 – Estimated DTRRIP Incremental Peak Hour SO2 Roadside Impacts ...... 7-24

Table 7.14 – Estimated DTRRIP Incremental Average Hour PM2.5 Roadside Impacts ...... 7-25

Table 7.15 – Estimated DTRRIP Incremental Peak Hour PM2.5 Roadside Impacts ...... 7-26

Table 7.16 – Estimated DTRRIP Average Hour Incremental CO & NO2 Rail Impacts ...... 7-32

Table 7.17 – Estimated DTRRIP Average Hour Rail Incremental SO2 & PM2.5 Impacts ...... 7-33

Table 7.18 – Estimated DTRRIP Peak Hour Rail Incremental CO & NO2 Impacts ...... 7-34

Table 7.19 – Estimated DTRRIP Peak Hour Rail Incremental SO2 & PM2.5 Impacts ...... 7-35 Table 7.20 – Estimated CEA Incremental Average Hour CO Roadside Impacts ...... 7-41 Table 7.21 – Estimated CEA Incremental Peak Hour CO Roadside Impacts ...... 7-42

Table 7.22 – Estimated CEA Incremental Average Hour NO2 Roadside Impacts ...... 7-43

Table 7.23 – Estimated CEA Incremental Peak Hour NO2 Roadside Impacts ...... 7-44

Table 7.24 – Estimated CEA Incremental Average Hour SO2 Roadside Impacts ...... 7-45

Table 7.25 – Estimated CEA Incremental Peak Hour SO2 Roadside Impacts ...... 7-46

Table 7.26 – Estimated CEA Incremental Average Hour PM2.5 Roadside Impacts ...... 7-47

Table 7.27 – Estimated CEA Incremental Peak Hour PM2.5 Roadside Air Quality Impacts .... 7-48

Table 7.28 – Estimated CEA Rail Incremental CO & NO2 Impacts ...... 7-55

Table 7.29 – Estimated CEA Rail Incremental SO2 & PM2.5 Impacts ...... 7-56

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LIST OF FIGURES Page No. Figure 2.1 – Location of Station T39 in Tsawwassen ...... 2-10 Figure 2.2 – Station T39 Wind Rose ...... 2-11 Figure 2.3 – Observed Hourly Averaged CO Concentrations at T39 ...... 2-14

Figure 2.4 – Observed Hourly Averaged NO2 Concentrations at T39 ...... 2-14 Figure 2.5 – Observed Hourly Averaged SO2 Concentrations at T39 ...... 2-14 Figure 2.6 – Observed Hourly Averaged O3 Concentrations at T39 ...... 2-14

Figure 2.7 – Observed Hourly Averaged PM2.5 Concentrations at T39...... 2-14 Figure 2.8 – CO Pollution Rose for T39 ...... 2-15

Figure 2.9 – NO2 Pollution Rose for T39 ...... 2-15

Figure 2.10 – SO2 Pollution Rose ...... 2-16

Figure 2.11 – O3 Pollution Rose for T39 ...... 2-16

Figure 2.12 – PM2.5 Pollution Rose for T39 ...... 2-17 Figure 2.13 – Observed 8-hour Averaged CO Concentrations at T39 ...... 2-21

Figure 2.14 – Observed 24-hour Averaged SO2 Concentrations at T39 ...... 2-21

Figure 2.15 – Observed 24-hour Averaged PM2.5 Concentrations at T39 ...... 2-21

Figure 2.16 – Observed 24-hour Averaged NO2 Concentrations at T39 ...... 2-22

Figure 2.17 – Observed 8-hour Averaged O3 Concentrations at T39 ...... 2-22 Figure 4.1 – Activity Polygons for Regional Emission Estimates...... 4-3 Figure 4.2 – Activity Polygons for Local Emission Estimates ...... 4-4 Figure 4.3 – Estimated CO Emissions for Existing and Future Operational Scenarios ...... 4-9 Figure 4.4 – Estimated NOx Emissions for Existing and Future Scenarios ...... 4-10

Figure 4.5 – Estimated SO2 Emissions for Existing and Future Scenarios ...... 4-11 Figure 4.6 – Estimated VOC Emissions for Existing and Future Scenarios ...... 4-12

Figure 4.7 – Estimated PM2.5 Emissions for Existing and Future Scenarios ...... 4-13

Figure 4.8 – Estimated CO2e Emissions for Existing and Future Scenarios ...... 4-14 Figure 4.9 – Estimated CO Emissions for Existing and Future Operational Scenarios ...... 4-18 Figure 4.10 – Estimated NOx Emissions for Existing and Future Scenarios ...... 4-19

Figure 4.11 – Estimated SO2 Emissions for Existing and Future Scenarios ...... 4-20 Figure 4.12 – Estimated VOC Emissions for Existing and Future Scenarios ...... 4-21

Figure 4.13 – Estimated PM2.5 Emissions for Existing and Future Scenarios ...... 4-22

Figure 4.14 – Estimated CO2e Emissions for Existing and Future Scenarios ...... 4-23 Figure 5.1 – Estimated CO Emissions for Existing and Future Operational Scenarios ...... 5-5

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Figure 5.2 – Estimated NOx Emissions for Existing and Future Scenarios ...... 5-6

Figure 5.3 – Estimated SO2 Emissions for Existing and Future Scenarios ...... 5-7 Figure 5.4 – Estimated VOC Emissions for Existing and Future Scenarios ...... 5-8

Figure 5.5 – Estimated PM2.5 Emissions for Existing and Future Scenarios ...... 5-9

Figure 5.6 – Estimated CO2e Emissions for Existing and Future Scenarios ...... 5-10 Figure 5.7 – Estimated CO Emissions for Existing and Future Operational Scenarios ...... 5-14 Figure 5.8 – Estimated NOx Emissions for Existing and Future Scenarios ...... 5-15

Figure 5.9 – Estimated SO2 Emissions for Existing and Future Scenarios ...... 5-16 Figure 5.10 – Estimated VOC Emissions for Existing and Future Scenarios ...... 5-17

Figure 5.11 – Estimated PM2.5 Emissions for Existing and Future Scenarios ...... 5-18

Figure 5.12 – Estimated CO2e Emissions for Existing and Future Scenarios ...... 5-19 Figure 5.13 – Trend in Estimated Total Annual Fugitive Dust Emissions from Westshore Terminal ...... 5-22 Figure 6.1 – Maximum and Average Hourly Emissions, kg/day ...... 6-7 Figure 6.2 – Maximum and Average Daily DTRIPP Emissions, kg/day ...... 6-16 Figure 6.3 – Maximum and Average Hourly CEA Emissions, kg/hour ...... 6-25 Figure 6.4 – Maximum and Average Daily CEA Emissions, kg/day ...... 6-34 Figure 7.1 – Estimated DTRRIP Incremental CO Roadside Air Quality Impacts ...... 7-27

Figure 7.2 – Estimated DTRRIP Incremental NO2 Roadside Air Quality Impacts ...... 7-28

Figure 7.3 – Estimated DTRRIP Incremental SO2 Roadside Air Quality Impacts ...... 7-29

Figure 7.4 – Estimated DTRRIP Incremental PM2.5 Roadside Air Quality Impacts ...... 7-30 Figure 7.5 – Estimated DTRRIP Average Hour Incremental Rail Corridor Air Quality Impacts7-36 Figure 7.6 – Estimated DTRRIP Peak Hour Incremental Rail Corridor Air Quality Impacts .. 7-37 Figure 7.7 – Estimated CEA Incremental CO Roadside Air Quality Impacts...... 7-49

Figure 7.8 – Estimated CEA Incremental NO2 Roadside Air Quality Impacts ...... 7-50

Figure 7.9 – Estimated CEA Incremental SO2 Roadside Air Quality Impacts ...... 7-51

Figure 7.10 – Estimated CEA Incremental PM2.5 Roadside Air Quality Impacts ...... 7-52 Figure 7.11 – Estimated CEA Peak Hour Incremental Rail Corridor Air Quality Impacts...... 7-57

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GLOSSARY OF ACRONYMS AND ABBREVIATIONS

Abbreviations AAQO Ambient Air Quality Objective AQMP Metro Vancouver’s Air Quality Management Plan CACs Common Air Contaminants Roadway model that predicts air pollutant concentrations near highways and CAL3QHCR arterial streets due to emissions from motor vehicles CEA Cumulative Effects Assessment CHE Cargo Handling Equipment CWS Canada-Wide Standards DP Deltaport Container Terminal at Roberts Bank in Delta, BC DTRRIP Deltaport Terminal, Road and Rail Improvement Project ECA North American Emission Control Area Emission Reduction Measure under the Port Metro Vancouver’s Truck ERM Licensing System IMO International Maritime Organization LDV Light Duty Vehicles LFV Lower Fraser Valley in south-western British Columbia NAPS National Air Pollution Surveillance network of air quality monitoring stations RBRC Roberts Bank Rail Corridor RTG Rubber-tired gantry cranes SFPR South Fraser Perimeter Road T2 Proposed Terminal 2 container terminal at Roberts Bank in Delta, BC Air quality monitoring station in Tsawwassen, BC; part of the network of T39 monitoring stations operated by Metro Vancouver TLS Truck Licensing System US EPA United States Environmental Protection Agency WS Westshore Terminals coal port at Roberts Bank in Delta, BC

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Contaminants

CH4 Methane CO Carbon Monoxide

CO2 Carbon Dioxide

CO2e Carbon Dioxide equivalent; refers to global warming potential COHb Carboxyhaemoglobin; a measure of the amount of inhaled CO in human blood GHG Greenhouse Gases HC Hydrocarbon

NH3 Ammonia NO Nitric Oxide

NO2 Nitrogen Dioxide

NOx Nitrogen Oxides (NO and NO2)

N2O Nitrous Oxide

O3 Ground-level Ozone OH Hydroxyl Radical PM Particulate Matter Inhalable Particulate Matter (consisting of particles with a mean diameter less PM10 than 10 microns) Respirable or Fine Particulate Matter (consisting of particles with a mean PM2.5 diameter less than 2.5 microns)

SO2 Sulphur Dioxide SOx Sulphur Oxides Airborne particles or aerosols that are less than 100 micrometers mean diameter TSP are collectively referred to as Total Suspended Particulate Matter; also known as particulate matter (PM), suspended particulate matter (SPM), and soot Volatile Organic Compounds; include a variety of organic chemicals that have a VOCs high vapour pressure at room temperature

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Units of Measure µg/m3 micrograms per cubic meter (unit of concentration in air) hr hour kg kilogram km kilometre m metre m/s metres per second ppb parts per billion (unit of concentration) ppm parts per million (unit of concentration) TEU Twenty-foot Equivalent Units (unit of measure for shipping containers) Concepts Cumulative Cumulative effects are changes to the environment caused by the combination of Effects effects of past, present and “reasonably foreseeable” future Emissions of particulate matter or gases due to uncontrolled leaks, unintended Fugitive releases of particulate matter from bulk material handling, heavy equipment Emissions travel on paved and unpaved roads or wind erosion of exposed surfaces such as stockpiles of bulk materials Incremental Effects/concentrations due to a certain activity, exclusive of past effects or Effects background concentrations from other source emissions A diagram that correlates wind direction data with pollutant concentration value. Pollution The length of the line corresponds to the frequency of readings in that direction Rose and concentration value, while the line color corresponds to the magnitude of pollutant value Wind Rose A diagram that correlates wind direction data with wind speed

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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

The Deltaport Terminal, Road and Rail Improvement Project (DTRRIP) is a series of improvements to the existing Deltaport Terminal at Roberts Bank in Delta, B.C. These infrastructure upgrades will allow for an increase in terminal container capacity for future operations. The information presented in this report provides a summary of the anticipated changes in air contaminant emissions and associated air quality due to these changes in container handling capacity at the Deltaport Terminal.

The air quality assessment for DTRRIP was conducted based on Deltaport container terminal capacity of 2.4 million Twenty-foot Equivalent Units (TEU), per year by 2030. This is the most practical and sustainable terminal operation scenario. In addition, two other potential scenarios of future operations at the Deltaport Terminal (DP) were assessed: one scenario based on a Deltaport container terminal capacity 3.0 million TEU per year by 2030, and a second scenario also with 3.0 million TEU but with larger container ships calling at Deltaport, resulting in a lower number of ship calls per year.

Of the three scenarios, the first scenario is considered the most likely because 800,000 TEU per container terminal berth can be achieved practically and sustainably. Therefore, the first scenario (Case 1) is the focus of the executive summary. The report discusses the impacts of all three scenarios.

A key element of all of the scenarios is a definition of the term “capacity”. 2.4 million TEU of cargo “across the dock” (meaning all cargo and empty containers moved to and from a vessel) is the “Maximum Practical Sustainable Capacity (MPSC)” of the Deltaport Terminal. This is the amount of cargo the terminal (and all of its components) can be expected to handle in an efficient and economic manner, year after year. The MPSC is typically 80% to 85% of the design capacity of the terminal. The design capacity is the capacity at which the terminal can operate (and could do so during the peak season of late June through October), but both the market and the operational sustainability of operating at peak levels cannot be maintained in a safe, efficient or even economical manner.

Another aspect that bears discussion is that a marine terminal is composed of several operational components, each with a unique design capacity. The overall capacity of the terminal is based upon the component with the least capacity. Berths are one of the components and an increase of one berth (from 2 berths to 3 berths) may make an incremental jump in annual TEU capacity for

380220 - October 2012 x SENES Consultants Limited Air Quality Assessment Deltaport Terminal, Road and Rail Improvement Project that component. Thus, using a capacity of 3.0 million TEU for the air quality analysis due to vessel operations is very appropriate as larger vessels will be calling at Deltaport in the future as the world’s container fleet vessel size increases. What is unknown is the direct relationship between increasing vessel size and the number of vessel calls to Deltaport as many North American container ports have witnessed an increase in TEU throughput based on vessel size (and the increase in containers discharged) while not seeing an increase in the number of vessel calls. The terminal capacity analysis indicated that with three berths and larger vessels, the berth component was not the component restricting terminal capacity, meaning that during the peak season, this component could be effectively operating near the 3.0 million TEU limit.

In addition, the report provides a cumulative air quality effects assessment for anticipated changes in future cargo handling capacity at the existing Westshore (WS) coal terminal at Roberts Bank and a potential new container capacity at Roberts Bank in the future. For Westshore Terminals, emissions are calculated for a potential increase in coal shipments to 35 million tonnes per year. For additional potential container terminal increases, projected operating scenarios are calculated for up to 2.4 million TEU and up to 3.0 million TEU per year by 2030.

Air contaminant emissions were calculated for the following compounds:

Common Air Contaminants (CAC) Carbon Monoxide (CO) Nitrogen Oxides (NOx)

Sulphur Dioxide (SO2) Volatile Organic Compounds (VOC)

Ammonia (NH3) Particulate Matter (PM, PM10 and PM2.5)

Greenhouse Gases (GHG)

Carbon Dioxide (CO2) Methane (CH4), expressed as CO2-equivalent (CO2e) Nitrous Oxide (N2O), expressed as CO2-equivalent (CO2e)

For simplicity, and because carbon dioxide is the dominant source of GHGs, GHG emissions are expressed in CO2e. Although emission calculations were completed for all three size fraction of particulate matter, most of the emission sources being evaluated are diesel-powered and 97% of the total PM emitted is composed of PM2.5 emissions. Therefore, the focus of the air quality impact assessment is on the fine particulate fraction.

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Emissions were calculated for four source groups or activities:

 Marine Vessels o Activity consisting of underway, manoeuvring and while at berth o Main engines, auxiliary engines and boilers o Tug boat assist vessels  Cargo Handling Equipment (CHE) o Reach stackers o Rubber-tired gantry (RTG) cranes o Top and/or side picks chassis or reach stackers o Yard trucks and chassis/bombcarts (hostlers or terminal tractors)  On-road Vehicles o Container trucks, service vehicles and employee-owned vehicles  Rail Locomotives

Changes in air emissions were calculated for six time periods: 2010, 2014, 2017, 2020, 2025 and 2030. The estimated emissions in each time period were based on detailed consideration of activity levels for each type of equipment associated with changes in container handling capacity. The emission estimates not only reflect changes in activity levels for marine vessels, cargo handling equipment, container trucks and rail locomotives at the Deltaport Terminal, but also consider changes in fuel quality and the normal replacement of older equipment with newer equipment that meets new emission technology standards.

Air emissions were assessed over different time averaging periods including hourly, daily, and annual. For the hourly and daily averaging periods, both maximum and average emission scenarios were considered.

The emission estimating techniques used in this report follow current established practices for predicting impacts from present and future port-related activities. However, in any emission inventory development, there are uncertainties that are inherent in the work and assumptions need to be made to complete the work. Different approaches may also be used to calculate emissions from the same operations. The general approach used in this screening-level assessment have been biased towards higher emission estimates. The result of using this approach is that actual emissions and associated air quality impacts may be considerably lower than has been estimated using conservative methods. It should be emphasized that none of the alternative methods or data sources would result in substantially different conclusions as to the overall estimates of current or future projected emissions and impacts.

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Air Quality Trends in the Lower Fraser Valley

Metro Vancouver operates a network of air quality monitoring stations in the Lower Fraser Valley (LFV). Information gathered from the LFV Air Quality Monitoring Network is used to support and guide Metro Vancouver’s Air Quality Management Plan (AQMP) for the region. The network consists of 27 stations operated by Metro Vancouver and the Fraser Valley Regional District. Estimated emissions of Common Air Contaminants (CAC) in the Lower Fraser Valley (LFV) from 1990 to 2030 were derived by Metro Vancouver.

The following table summarizes the air quality and trends for the key study contaminants.

Ambient Air Quality Observed and Projected Contaminant Objectives Major Sources Trend (AAQOs) Light Duty Vehicles CO has steadily been declining. 30,000 µg/m3 (1-hr) CO Space Heating AAQOs achieved since 1990 10,000 µg/m3 (8-hr) Non-road vehicles and will continue to decline Combustion sources including NOx emissions have declined 200 µg/m3 (1-hr for NO ) NOx 2 building heating, commercial since 1990, and will continue to 40 µg/m3 (annual for NO ) 2 and industrial operations decline Industrial sources in such as SO emissions have declined 450 µg/m3 (1-hr) 2 petroleum refining, primary since 1990, and will continue to SO 125 µg/m3 (24-hr) 2 metals and non-metallic mineral decline 30 µg/m3 (annual) processing Natural sources (vegetation), VOC emissions have declined VOCs N.A. solvent evaporation and light- since 1990, and will continue to duty gasoline vehicles decline 3 50 µg/m (24-hr for PM10) Action of the wind, and A gradual decline in annual 3 PM, PM10 20 µg/m (annual) for PM10, anthropogenic sources, such as PM10 and PM2.5 for most 3 and PM2.5 25 µg/m (24-hr for PM2.5) the combustion of fuels locations has been observed 3 12 µg/m (annual) for PM2.5 Mobile Transportation Sources Light-duty gasoline-powered and Area Sources vehicle emissions are projected (e.g., agricultural activity, to decrease, while GHG

CO2e N.A. landfills residential and emissions from area sources are commercial space heating) projected to increase. Marine vessel emissions are also expected to increase

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Air Quality in the Tsawwassen

Metro Vancouver has completed several air quality monitoring studies specifically aimed at determining the air quality levels in the vicinity of the marine terminal operations at Roberts Bank. The results of the monitoring studies concluded that the measured air quality within the Delta study area was generally good as compared with other locations in Metro Vancouver and that the study contaminants are well below applicable Ambient Air Quality Objectives (AAQOs).

The available monitoring data at English Bluff in Tsawwassen indicates that the area experiences overall good air quality. In 2010-2011, the levels of all gaseous contaminants monitored at the station were well within the ambient air quality objectives and standards set by Metro Vancouver, the Province of British Columbia and the Federal Government. In particular:

 The concentrations of CO and SO2 are small fractions of the objectives, and the levels of SO2 are likely to decline further in the future as a result of the adoption of a sulphur Emission Control Area for shipping in North America. However, contributions of SO2 from oil refineries south of the border and a cement plant to the east of Tsawwassen will

limit the degree of reduction in SO2 levels.

 Hourly averaged concentrations of NO2 are actually higher at the highest percentile levels for winds from directions other than from the marine terminals, indicating that other sources of emission in the vicinity of the monitoring site contribute more to the highest

NO2 levels than do the marine terminals. The maximum contribution to hourly averaged NO2 concentrations from the direction of the marine terminals is less than one-third of the Metro Vancouver AAQO, while the maximum 24-hour average NO2 concentration from all directions was less than one-quarter of the AAQO.  Ozone is a secondary contaminant formed in the atmosphere from the emission of NOx and VOC. The available monitoring data indicate that the contaminant is ubiquitous in the Tsawwassen area, but that the hourly averaged concentrations are slightly higher for wind directions other than those coming from the direction of the marine terminals at Roberts Bank.

 The Metro Vancouver AAQO for 24-hour average PM2.5 was once exceeded during the year of recorded observations, and that by less than 1 µg/m3 during a period of elevated pollution from forest fires in the region. Excluding the days with smoke from forest fires,

99% of the time ambient PM2.5 concentrations at T39 were at approximately 35% of the AAQO, while the 98th percentile was slightly more than one-quarter of the Canada-Wide Standard value.

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DTRRIP Annual Emission Inventory

The emission inventories are presented as both local emissions that occur in the immediate vicinity of the Deltaport terminal, and regional emissions that occur within a selected area of the western portion of the Lower Fraser Valley (LFV) and Georgia Strait. Emissions were categorized as local if they resulted from activity in the immediate vicinity of Roberts Bank, and regional if the emissions are derived from transport to and from Roberts Bank, either by ship, rail or truck. Local emission estimates were used to calculate anticipated changes in air quality at the T39 monitoring station in Tsawwassen. Regional emission estimates include local emission estimates, in addition to emissions from ship movements in Georgia Strait and container truck and rail locomotives along specific travel corridors in Delta and Richmond.

In general, for most contaminants, ships and cargo handling equipment (CHE) are the dominant sources from DTRRIP with minor contributions from the rail and vehicle activities. Contributions decrease for CHE as the existing diesel RTGs are retired and are replaced with electric cranes. The following annual trends are observed for both local and regional emissions:

 CO and VOCs increase to 2017 and 2020 and then decrease after 2020 due to replacement of older CHE with newer, lower emitting equipment such that 2030 levels are similar to 2010 levels;  NOx emissions increase to 2017 and 2020, before decreasing to well below 2010 levels, primarily due to fleet turnover to more stringent emissions standards;

 SO2 emissions are dominated by shipping activities and are highest in 2010 and then decrease to well below 2010 levels by 2014 as a result of the lower sulphur fuel requirements;

 Particulate emissions, including PM10 and PM2.5, fluctuate around 2010 levels and then decrease to lower than 2010 levels by 2025; and

 CO2e emissions increase steadily above 2010 levels to 2030.

CEA Annual Emission Inventory

The CEA Annual Emission Inventory includes operations from Westshore and proposed Terminal 2 container terminal. The same categorization of local and regional emissions applies as for the DTRRIP emissions.

In general, for most contaminants, ships and CHE are the dominant sources from CEA with minor contributions from the rail and vehicle activities. The following annual trends are observed for both local and regional emissions:

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 Regional CO and VOCs emissions increase to 2020 then fluctuate around 2020 levels to 2030 for Case 1, but regional and local CO and VOC emissions would steadily increase for Cases 2 and 3 to 2030;  Local and regional NOx emissions increase to 2014 and then decrease to below 2010 levels after 2017 for Cases 1 and 2 and after 2020 for Case 3. The primary influence on NOx emissions is fleet turnover to equipment that meets more stringent emissions standards, however the reductions are not as obvious as with DTRRIP because potential future container capacity is considered operational at 2020 and beyond;

 SO2 emissions are highest in 2010 and then decrease to well below 2010 levels by 2014 as a result of the lower sulphur fuel requirements. SO2 levels increase in 2020 and beyond because of the additional potential container capacities but are still well below 2010 levels;

 Local and regional particulate emissions, including PM10 and PM2.5, from combustion sources fluctuate around 2010 levels all of the horizon years for Cases 1 and 2, but could increase by up to 20% for Case 3. Fugitive coal dust emissions could increase by 32% for

PM, 29% for PM10 and 28% for PM2.5 due to projected increases in coal shipments from 2010 to 2025/2030; and

 CO2e emissions increase above 2010 levels for each of the horizon years.

Projected Changes to Air Quality in Tsawwassen due to DTRRIP

The assessment of air quality impacts in relation to ambient air quality objectives at the local scale require consideration of emissions in terms of daily and hourly emissions. The daily and hourly effects were assessed on an average and maximum basis for all horizon years and contaminants. In addition to a total daily loading, emissions per kilometer of rail and on-road vehicle travel along a section of the South Fraser Perimeter Road (SFPR) and the rail corridor were also considered in the assessment.

CO Concentrations There would be fairly minor variation in 1-hour average CO concentrations in Tsawwassen for the six horizon years for the average hourly emission scenario. For the peak hourly emission scenario, CO concentrations would be 5-7 µg/m3 higher than for the average emission scenario at the 100th percentile level, but all concentrations would remain well below the Metro Vancouver AAQO level of 30,000 µg/m3.

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NO2 Concentrations

The average observed 1-hour average NO2 concentrations in Tsawwassen would change little between 2010 and 2017 for the average and peak hourly emission scenarios, but would then be reduced by more than 25 µg/m3 at the 100th percentile level during the period 2020-2030 due to fleet turnover of ships and CHE. Although the peak 1-hour 3 average NO2 concentrations may be more than 35 µg/m higher with the peak emission

scenario than for the average emission scenario, all NO2 concentrations would remain well below the Metro Vancouver AAQO of 200 µg/m3.

There would be minor variations in 24-hour average NO2 concentrations during the horizon years 2014 and 2017 compared with existing levels in 2010 for the average 3 emission scenario, but NO2 concentrations could be reduced by 2-3 µg/m from 2020 to th 2030 at the 100 percentile level. The NO2 concentrations could be approximately 10-11 µg/m3 higher for the peak emission scenario than has been observed to date until 2017.

However, by 2020 and beyond, NO2 concentrations for the peak emission scenario would be comparable to existing levels for the average emission scenario. All concentrations would remain well below the Metro Vancouver AAQO of 200 µg/m3.

SO2 Concentrations Hourly averaged SO2 concentrations in Tsawwassen are currently at their peak for emissions from the direction of Roberts Bank and will decline by 2014 and again most precipitously after 2017. The reduction in fuel sulphur content as part of the ECA will

reduce observed SO2 concentrations to a fraction of existing levels for winds from Roberts Bank from the 2017 to the 2030 horizon years. All 1-hour average SO2 concentrations would remain well below the Metro Vancouver AAQO of 450 µg/m3 for all emission scenarios and all horizon years.

All projected 24-hour average SO2 concentrations for the average emission scenario represent a small fraction of the Metro Vancouver AAQO of 125 µg/m3 for all horizon

years. With the reduction in fuel sulphur levels, 24-hour average SO2 concentrations from the direction of Roberts Bank would be reduced to below existing observations after 2014 even for the peak emission scenario.

PM2.5 Concentrations For the combustion sources at Roberts Bank, all projected changes in 24-hour average 3 PM2.5 concentrations in Tsawwassen would vary by less than 0.5 µg/m over the future horizon years at the 100th percentile level for the average emission scenario. Concentrations could potentially be about 1.5 µg/m3 higher for the peak traffic day

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emission scenario than for the average traffic day emission scenario, but would remain at 40% or less of the Metro Vancouver AAQO in future horizon years.

Incremental impacts from fugitive coal dust emissions at the Westshore Terminal could 3 3 add from 0.2 µg/m to 0.4 µg/m to maximum daily PM2.5 concentrations measured in Tsawwassen between 2010 and 2025/2030.

Projected Incremental Changes to Air Quality along Road and Rail Corridors due to DTRRIP

CO Concentrations The highest 1-hour average CO impacts are projected to occur in 2020 for the Case 2 and Case 3 peak hour traffic activity scenarios. At 10 m from the roadway, ambient concentrations are estimated at 1174 µg/m3, declining with distance from the roadway to 127 µg/m3 at 190 m from the roadway. Even if the 98th percentile observed CO concentration of 394 µg/m3 were added as background CO concentration to the incremental impacts, the total ambient air concentration of 1568 µg/m3 would represent approximately 5% of the Metro Vancouver ambient air quality objective of 30,000 µg/m3.

CO concentrations are highest at 10 m from the rail line in 2010, declining slightly by 2014 and then remaining steady. Even if the 98th percentile CO concentration measured at T39 were to be added to the projected incremental impacts from rail emissions, the total concentration of 564.8 µg/m3 in 2010 would only comprise 1.6% of the Metro Vancouver ambient air quality objective of 30,000 µg/m3. Concentrations would be even lower at greater distances from the rail line.

NO2 Concentrations Due to more stringent emission standards for heavy duty diesel-powered vehicles and

fleet turnover, 1-hour average NO2 impacts from container trucks beside the roadway are estimated to be highest in 2010, declining in all subsequent years, even with the projected additional traffic levels in 2020 and beyond. At 10 m from the roadway, the maximum estimated incremental ambient air quality impact for peak traffic levels in 2010 is 84.6 3 th µg/m . Even with the addition of the observed 98 percentile NO2 concentration of 46 3 µg/m at T39 as a measure of background NO2 levels, the total air quality level of 130.6 µg/m3 is still well below the Metro Vancouver ambient air quality objective of 200 µg/m3. With declining emissions in all subsequent horizon years, the AAQO would be achieved at all distances from the roadway.

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Hourly averaged NO2 concentrations are highest at 10 m from the rail line in 2010, declining in 2014 and then again in 2025 and 2030. By 2030, the estimated NO2 concentrations would be approximately 20% of the levels in 2010. Even if the 98th percentile CO concentration measured in Tsawwassen were to be added to the projected incremental impacts from rail emissions, the total concentration of 130.4 µg/m3 in 2010 at 10 m from the rail line is still projected to be well below the Metro Vancouver ambient air quality objective of 200 µg/m3, and would be much lower at greater distances from the rail line.

SO2 Concentrations All estimated 1-hour average ambient air concentrations of SO2 are very low, ranging from 1.0 µg/m3 for Case 1 at average traffic levels in 2010 (10 m from roadway) to just 3 th 3.6 µg/m for peak traffic levels in 2030. Even if the 98 percentile SO2 concentration of 7.2 µg/m3 measured in Tsawwassen were added to the incremental impact from DTRRIP

roadway emissions, the total concentration of SO2 would be less than 3% of the Metro Vancouver ambient air quality objective of 450 µg/m3. At greater distances from the roadway, the small incremental impacts of less than 1-2 µg/m3 would be

indistinguishable from background SO2 concentrations.

Hourly averaged SO2 concentrations are highest at 10 m from the rail line in 2010, declining in 2014 to 0.4 µg/m3 or less at all distances from the rail line in all subsequent

horizon years. At such low levels, the incremental impacts of SO2 emissions from the rail corridor would be indistinguishable from background SO2 levels.

PM2.5 Concentrations Similar to the NO2 concentrations, the estimated PM2.5 concentrations beside the roadway indicate that concentrations are highest in 2010 and decline in subsequent years, even with increased traffic activity in 2020. The maximum estimated incremental 1-hour average concentration of 7.9 µg/m3 at 10 m from the roadway would be reduced by over 50% to 3.5 µg/m3 in the 2020 to 2030. There are no applicable ambient air quality

objectives for 1-hour average PM2.5 concentrations. However, since measured 3 concentrations of PM2.5 less than 3 µg/m are likely to fall within the ‘noise’ range of monitoring equipment1, all estimated concentrations beyond 30 m from the roadway in the horizon years 2014 and beyond are likely to be indistinguishable from background

1 3 For example, studies of collocated continuous PM10 sampling instruments have a reported precision of +2.8 µg/m for hourly averaged PM10 concentrations. Due to the smaller mass of PM2.5 particles, the precision of PM2.5 sampling equipment could be even lower.

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concentrations.

Similar to the NO2 concentrations from rail traffic, 1-hour average PM2.5 concentrations are highest at 10 m from the rail line in 2010, declining in 2014 and then again in 2025 3 and 2030. Incremental PM2.5 concentrations would be less than 4 µg/m at 30 m from the rail line from 2014 onwards, making the incremental impacts indistinguishable from

background PM2.5 levels.

Projected Changes to Air Quality in Tsawwassen due to CEA

The same analysis of projected air quality impacts that was performed for DTRRIP was also completed for the CEA emissions. The anticipated changes in ambient air quality in Tsawwassen and along the road and rail corridors are as follows:

CO Concentrations The maximum 1-hour average CO concentrations in Tsawwassen could be expected to increase by about 7-8 µg/m3 for the average traffic activity emission scenario to 2017, and decline slightly afterward to 2030. For the peak hourly emission scenario, the CO concentrations could increase by 15-25 µg/m3 to 2025 and decline slightly afterward to 2030. Nevertheless, these would represent negligible fluctuations in CO concentrations in comparison with the Metro Vancouver AAQO of 30,000 µg/m3.

NO2 Concentrations For the average activity scenario, maximum 1-hour average NO2 concentrations could increase slightly by about 0.5-1.0 µg/m3 to 2014, but would subsequently decline to about 20 µg/m3 below existing levels for the average emission scenario. For the peak emission scenario, assuming a hypothetical situation where all ships at berth in 2020 are older

model ships with higher NOx emission rates, the NO2 concentrations could potentially increase to a level approximately double the currently observed concentrations as

representative of average operations at Roberts Bank. Nevertheless, the NO2 th concentrations at the 100 percentile in 2020 would still be comparable to NO2 concentrations observed in Tsawwassen during the 2010-2011 monitoring period for

emissions from other wind directions. Therefore, while the NO2 concentrations may increase for winds from Roberts Bank to 2020, the observed maximum 1-hour average

NO2 concentrations in Tsawwassen for all wind directions may not change much compared to existing levels. After 2020, with the retirement of older model ships and

replacement with newer, larger capacity ships, overall maximum NO2 concentrations would decline below existing levels in 2010, even for the peak activity scenario. For both

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the average and peak activity scenarios, all NO2 concentrations would remain below the Metro Vancouver AAQO of 200 µg/m3 for all horizon years.

There would be only minor fluctuations in maximum daily averaged NO2 concentrations for the average activity emission scenario over the six horizon years, and all concentrations would remain less than one-quarter of the Metro Vancouver AAQO of 200 µg/m3. For a hypothetical situation where all of the ships at berth in 2020 consist of older model vessels with higher NOx emission rates, the peak emission scenario would 3 have NO2 concentrations at about 14-15 µg/m higher than the average emissions scenario, reaching a maximum of 25 µg/m3 above the average scenario in 2020. However, by 2025 when the older ships are likely to have been replaced by newer model 3 ships, ambient NO2 concentrations would return to only about 2-3 µg/m below levels in 3 2010 and around 9-10 µg/m for the peak emissions scenario. All NO2 concentrations would remain well below the Metro Vancouver AAQO of 200 µg/m3 for all horizon years.

SO2 Concentrations The 1-hour average SO2 concentrations for the peak activity emission scenario could potentially have produced observed levels in Tsawwassen more than double what was

actually recorded in 2010-2011. However, maximum SO2 concentrations even for the peak activity scenario in 2014 would be lower than has been observed to date, and all

SO2 levels from 2017 to 2030 would represent a negligible fraction of the Metro Vancouver AAQO of 450 µg/m3.

All 24-hour average SO2 concentrations for the average activity emission scenario are low, declining to negligible levels for horizon years 2017 to 2030. Even under the peak

emission scenario, SO2 concentrations for emissions from Roberts Bank would be expected to decline to barely measurable levels in 2020-2030. All projected concentration levels would be well below the Metro Vancouver AAQO of 125 µg/m3 for all horizon years and all emission scenarios.

PM2.5 Concentrations The projected changes in maximum ambient levels of PM2.5 in Tsawwassen would be on the order of <0.5 µg/m3 for the average activity emission scenario and less than 2 µg/m3 for the peak activity emission scenario. However, even for the peak emission scenario, all ambient concentrations would remain at 50% or less of the Metro Vancouver AAQO of 25 µg/m3.

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Projected Incremental Changes to Air Quality along Road and Rail Corridors due to CEA

CO Concentrations The estimated 1-hour average CO concentrations are highest at 10 m from the roadway and decrease with increasing distance from the roadway. Based on the projected changes in on-road emissions, CO concentrations would more than double at all distances from the roadside between levels in 2010 and 2030 for the average hour traffic scenario, and would reach a peak concentration of 2376 µg/m3 in 2030 for the peak hour traffic scenario (10 m distance). If the 98th percentile concentration of 394 µg/m3 at T39 is added to the maximum estimated incremental CO concentration, the maximum 1-hour average CO concentration at 10 m from the roadway would be 2770 µg/m3, a level less than 10% of the Metro Vancouver ambient air quality objective of 30,000 µg/m3.

The incremental 1-hour average CO concentrations due to rail traffic are projected to be reduced from 2010 to 2014 and increase to a maximum of 146.5 µg/m3 (10 m distance from the rail line) in 2020. If the 98th percentile CO concentration of 394.4 µg/m3 observed in Tsawwassen is added to the maximum estimated incremental CO concentration, the maximum 1-hour average CO concentration at 10 m from the rail corridor of 540.9 µg/m3 would only comprise 1.8% of the Metro Vancouver ambient air quality objective of 30,000 µg/m3.

NO2 Concentrations The estimated 1-hour average NO2 concentrations are highest at 10 m from the roadway in 2010, would decline to a minimum in 2017, and then increase again to a secondary peak level in 2025 with the additional container truck traffic from the proposed Terminal 2 before declining from 2025 to 2030 for Case 1 or continuing to increase again to 2030

for Case 2/3. Nevertheless, the maximum projected NO2 concentrations in 2030 would be one-third of the levels in 2010 for the average traffic scenario and approximately 42%

of the 2010 levels for the Case 2/3 peak hour traffic scenario. In all case, therefore, NO2 concentrations would decline even with higher traffic levels in future horizon years. If th the 98 percentile NO2 concentration observed in Tsawwassen is added as a background estimate to the highest estimated concentration in 2030 for marine terminal traffic at 10 m 3 from the roadway, the resultant total NO2 concentration of 86.4 µg/m would still be less than half the Metro Vancouver ambient air quality objective of 200 µg/m3.

The incremental 1-hour average NO2 concentrations are projected to be reduced from 2010 to 2014 and increase to a maximum of 125.5 µg/m3 (10 m distance from the rail line) in 2020, with substantial reductions in 2025 and 2030. The 2030 concentrations are

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projected to be approximately 62% of the maximum levels in 2017. If the 98th percentile 3 NO2 concentration of 46.4 µg/m observed at Tsawwassen is added to the maximum

estimated incremental NO2 concentration, the maximum 1-hour average NO2 concentration at 10 m from the rail corridor of 171.9 µg/m3 is still well below the Metro Vancouver ambient air quality objective of 200 µg/m3, and would be much lower at greater distances from the rail line.

There would be no change to air quality emissions or air quality impacts from rail locomotives for the grade separations at 192nd and 196th Streets. However, 1-hour

average NO2 concentrations at the nearest residential locations for the Panorama Ridge Whistle Cessation project could increase by up to 39% if two locomotives were idling near the residences at the railway siding after the realignment of Colebrook Road. However, the hypothetical assumption of having two engines idling outside the receptor closest to the railway siding is considered to be a very conservative assumption since it is unlikely that two engines would ever be in close proximity to the residential receptors.

SO2 Concentrations All estimated 1-hour average SO2 concentrations beside the roadway would be very low. Although the maximum 1-hour average SO2 concentrations at 10 m from the roadway 3 3 could increase from 2.0 µg/m in 2010 to 7.4 µg/m in 2030, the changes in SO2 levels at distances greater than 30 m from the roadway would be largely indistinguishable from background concentrations. The total concentrations would remain as a small fraction of the Metro Vancouver ambient air quality objective of 450 µg/m3.

3 The maximum incremental 1-hour average SO2 concentration of 10.0 µg/m (10 m distance from the rail line) in 2010 is projected to be reduced substantially in 2014. If the th 3 98 percentile SO2 concentration of 7.2 µg/m observed at Tsawwassen is added to the

maximum estimated incremental SO2 concentration, the maximum 1-hour average SO2 concentration at 10 m from the rail corridor of 17.2 µg/m3 would only comprise 3.8% of the Metro Vancouver ambient air quality objective of 450 µg/m3.

PM2.5 Concentrations Similar to the trend for NO2 concentrations, incremental 1-hour average PM2.5 concentrations would be highest at 10 m from the roadway in 2010, decline to a minimum level in 2017, and increase thereafter with the additional traffic levels from the

proposed Terminal 2 container trucks. However, the increase in PM2.5 concentrations from 2020 to 2030 would remain below the existing levels for the average hour traffic

scenarios in Cases 1 and 2/3 and the peak hour traffic scenario for Case 1. PM2.5

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concentrations would only begin to approach existing 2010 levels by 2030 for the Case 2/3 peak traffic scenario. Nevertheless, for the most part, incremental 1-hour average

PM2.5 concentrations would be indistinguishable from background levels at distances greater than 30 m from the roadway for all traffic scenarios in future horizon years.

Similar to the NO2 concentrations, 1-hour average PM2.5 concentrations are highest at 10 m from the rail line in 2010, declining in 2014 and then again in 2017 and 2025. 3 Incremental PM2.5 concentrations would be less than 7 µg/m at 30 m and beyond from the rail line from 2014 onwards, making the incremental impacts indistinguishable from

background PM2.5 levels.

The air quality assessment for emissions due to vehicular traffic changes associated with the overpasses at 192nd and 196th Street determined that there would be a slight increase

in PM2.5 concentrations, but a net reduction in diesel particulate matter burden. For the Panorama Ridge Whistle Cessation project, PM10 concentrations could decrease by 7% or less compared with 2011, depending on distance from the realignment of Colebrook

Road, while PM2.5 could decrease by up to 2.5%, again depending on location. The annual diesel particulate matter pollutant burden is also expected to decrease by up to 20% as a result of improved engine technologies and fuels.

Projected Incremental Changes to PM along Rail Corridors due to CEA Fugitive Coal Dust Emissions

The increased shipping of coal from the Westshore Terminal would result in more coal train deliveries to Roberts Bank (coal is only delivered to the Westshore terminal by rail). Apart from the exhaust emissions from locomotives that would add to CEA emissions as has been evaluated above, there would be a potential for additional emissions of coal dust from in-transit trains along the rail corridor. The best estimate of such emissions is based on a monitoring study of dusting coal trains that was conducted in Agassiz, B.C. in 1984-85. That study determined that the impact of six moderate-to-heavy dusting coal trains on ambient air quality beside the rail line was only on the order of 20-30 µg/m3 over a 7-hour monitoring period at a distance of 4.5 m from the tracks. Total PM concentrations over a 24-hour averaging period would be much lower still because the contribution of these trains would be averaged over 24 hours instead of 7 hours. 3 Thus, the total contribution could be on the order of 6-9 µg/m on a 24-hour basis. The PM2.5 fraction in fugitive coal dust emissions is typically around 2%. However, for samples collected on days with high coal dust emissions from trains, up to 20% of the total PM concentration may consist of coal dust as PM2.5, meaning that the total contribution of fugitive coal dust to 24-hour 3 average PM2.5 concentrations at track-side would be less than 2 µg/m , even on a day with six

380220 - October 2012 xxiv SENES Consultants Limited Air Quality Assessment Deltaport Terminal, Road and Rail Improvement Project moderate-to-heavy dusting coal trains. At a distance of 10 m from the tracks, the concentrations would be further reduced to a level of impact which falls within the ‘noise’ level of PM2.5 sampling instruments, meaning that the impact would be indistinguishable from background concentrations.

DTRRIP Construction Phase Emissions

The impacts of DTRRIP construction activity cannot be quantified in the absence of a detailed construction plan. As such, explicit impacts on air quality cannot be included in this assessment. In addition, any such air quality impacts would be temporary and low in magnitude, similar to that which was determined for the Deltaport Third Berth Project. However, it should be noted that air quality effects associated with construction activities would be similar to those that were determined for the Deltaport Third Berth Project. As a result, air emission effects from construction activity have not been included in the assessment of regional trends, and regional- level impacts from the DTRRIP.

The impacts of construction on air quality are temporary, and include sources such as worker travel to construction sites, equipment emissions and dust created during site clearing, pre- loading and overpass construction. In general, air emissions from such activity are minimized by standard best management practices (dust production during construction). Any residual emission of fugitive dust would be limited in spatial extent. Approximately 60% to 90% of the dust generated by construction activity can be expected to remain below 2 metres above the surface, and would not travel more than a few hundred meters from the construction site.

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1.0 INTRODUCTION

380220 - October 2012 1-1 SENES Consultants Limited Air Quality Assessment Deltaport Terminal, Road and Rail Improvement Project one berth (from 2 berths to 3 berths) may make an incremental jump in annual TEU capacity for that component. Thus, using a capacity of 3.0 million TEU for the air quality analysis due to vessel operations is very appropriate as larger vessels will be calling at Deltaport in the future as the world’s container fleet vessel size increases. What is unknown is the direct relationship between increasing vessel size and the number of vessel calls to Deltaport as many North American container ports have witnessed an increase in TEU throughput based on vessel size (and the increase in containers discharged) while not seeing an increase in the number of vessel calls. The terminal capacity analysis indicated that with three berths and larger vessels, the berth component was not the component restricting terminal capacity, meaning that during the peak season, this component could be effectively operating near the 3.0 million TEU limit.

In addition, the report provides a cumulative air quality effects assessment for anticipated changes in future cargo handling capacity at the existing Westshore (WS) coal terminal at Roberts Bank and potential new container capacity at Roberts Bank in the future. For Westshore Terminals, emissions are calculated for a potential increase in coal shipments to 35 million tonnes per year. For additional container potential increases, projected operating scenarios are calculated for up to 2.4 million additional TEU per year by 2030.

The three operational scenarios are defined as follows:

 Case 1: High "Direct" container traffic projection. Deltaport and potential future container capacity have a combined sustainable capacity of 4.8 million TEU with the ability to achieve higher throughput during peak periods. Westshore throughput 35 million tonnes coal.

 Case 2: High "Direct" container traffic projection. Deltaport and potential future container capacity have a combined sustainable capacity of up to 6.0 million TEU. Westshore throughput 35 million tonnes coal.

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 Case 3: High "Direct" container traffic projection. Deltaport and potential future container capacity have a total sustainable capacity of up to 6.0 million TEU. TEU per ship call remains at 2010 level. Westshore throughput 35 million tonnes coal. Table 1.1 lists the projected cargo throughput for each Case per horizon year of the assessment.

Table 1.1 – Case Cargo Volume Comparison

Cumulative Effects Assessment Future Potential Container Horizon DP - DTRRIP WS Expansiona Year Case 1 Case 2,3 Case 1,2,3 Case 1 Case 2,3 (million TEU) (million TEU) (Mt Coal) (million TEU) (million TEU) 2010 1.54 1.54 24.7 0.00 0.00 2014 1.74 1.74 25.0 0.00 0.00 2017 2.40 2.40 28.0 0.00 0.00 2020 2.40 3.00 31.0 1.10 0.50 2025 2.40 3.00 35.0 2.40 1.86 2030 2.40 3.00 35.0 2.40 3.00 Notes: DP - Deltaport Terminal WS - Westshore Terminals a proposed Roberts Bank Terminal 2 (T2)

The Cumulative Effects Assessment (CEA) emission inventory includes emissions from DTRRIP, the Westshore Terminal and the proposed Terminal 2 container terminal at Roberts Bank. However, the CEA annual emission inventory does not include emissions that may arise from:  construction-related emissions for the Roberts Bank Rail Corridor (RBRC);  the proposed Vancouver Airport Fuel Facilities Corporation (VAFFC);  industrial/residential development on Tsawwassen First Nation lands;  changes in traffic emissions due to opening of the Sou  th Fraser Perimeter Road (SFPR), other than those associated with operations of the Deltaport container terminal, the Westshore coal terminal and the proposed Terminal 2 container terminal.

While the assessment presented in this report focuses on the DTRRIP impacts, the emissions calculations for all three locations (DP, WS, and the proposed Terminal 2) and Cases were performed concurrently in Appendix A because of the commonalities in the calculation methods. Rather than providing a repetitive discussion of calculation methods for each of the locations in this Appendix, information on the three terminals has been grouped according to the

380220 - October 2012 1-3 SENES Consultants Limited Air Quality Assessment Deltaport Terminal, Road and Rail Improvement Project various calculation parameters.

Air contaminant emissions were calculated for the following compounds:

Common Air Contaminants (CAC) Carbon Monoxide (CO) Nitrogen Oxides (NOx)

Sulphur Dioxide (SO2) Volatile Organic Compounds (VOC)

Ammonia (NH3) Particulate Matter (PM, PM10 and PM2.5)

Greenhouse Gases (GHG)

Carbon Dioxide (CO2) 2 Methane (CH4), expressed as CO2-equivalent (CO2e) Nitrous Oxide (N2O), expressed as CO2-equivalent (CO2e)

The emission estimates were calculated using best practice methods adopted by Transport Canada, Environment Canada, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency and used to estimate marine and landside emissions for Port Metro Vancouver and other ports in California and Seattle. However, in any emission inventory development, there are uncertainties that are inherent in the work and assumptions need to be made to complete the work. Different approaches may also be used to calculate emissions from the same operations. As described in Appendix A (Section 6.0), the general approach used in this screening-level assessment have been biased towards higher emission estimates. The result of using this approach is that actual emissions and associated air quality impacts may be considerably lower than has been estimated using conservative methods. It should be emphasized that none of the alternative methods or data sources would result in substantially different conclusions as to the overall estimates of current or future projected emissions and impacts.

The DTRRIP emission inventory assessment, presented in Section 4.0 includes estimates of air contaminant emissions for existing operations at the Deltaport Terminal in 2010, as well as estimates of future projections of emissions for the five horizon years to 2030.

2 CO2e represents the Global Warming Potential (GWP) of compounds other than CO2 used to determine how much global temperature warming a given type and amount of greenhouse gas may cause, using the functionally equivalent amount or concentration of CO2 as the reference. For methane, the GWP is estimated at 21, while that of N2O is estimated at 310.

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Emissions were calculated for four source groups at Deltaport:

 Marine Vessels o Activity consisting of underway, manoeuvring and while at berth o Main engines, auxiliary engines and boilers o Tug boat assist vessels  Cargo Handling Equipment (CHE) o Reach stackers o Rubber-tired gantry (RTG) cranes o Top and/or side picks chassis or reach stackers o Yard trucks (hostlers or terminal tractors)  On-road Vehicles o Container trucks, service vehicles and employee-owned vehicles  Rail Locomotives

Emissions were assessed for the following time averaging periods:

 Average annual emissions;  Daily maximum and average emissions; and  Hourly maximum and average emissions.

Details of the assumptions used to calculate the emission inventories for each source group are presented in Appendix A. The emission inventory for these same sources as part of the CEA for the Westshore coal terminal and the proposed Terminal 2 are presented in Section 5.0.

Average and peak daily and hourly emission inventories for both DTRRIP and CEA are presented in Section 6.0.

The estimated impact of the changes in DTRRIP and CEA emissions on ambient air quality is estimated at three levels, namely:

1. Anticipated changes in maximum 1-hour and 24-hour average concentrations of the

common air contaminants NO2, SO2 and PM2.5 at the Tsawwassen monitoring station in Pebble Hill Park; 2. Anticipated changes in maximum 1-hour and 24-hour average concentrations of the

common air contaminants CO, NO2, SO2 and PM2.5 within a distance of 200 metres of Highway 17 for 2010 and the SFPR for future horizon years for container truck traffic and employee-owned vehicles, as well as within 200 metres of the rail corridor for rail

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traffic from Roberts Bank through Delta. 3. Fugitive coal dust emissions from the Westshore coal terminal and along the rail corridor from in-transit coal trains.

The air quality impacts for DTRRIP and CEA at Station T39 and along the road and rail corridors are presented in Section 7.0.

The impacts of DTRRIP construction activity could not be quantified in the absence of a detailed construction plan. As such, explicit impacts on air quality were not included in this assessment. In addition, any such air quality impacts would be temporary and low in magnitude, similar to those that were determined for the Deltaport Third Berth Project. As a result, fugitive dust impacts from construction activity have not been included in the assessment of regional trends, and regional-level impacts from the DTRRIP, but are briefly discussed in Section 8.0.

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2.0 AIR QUALITY IN THE LOWER FRASER VALLEY

Metro Vancouver operates a network of air quality monitoring stations in the Lower Fraser Valley (LFV). Information gathered from the LFV Air Quality Monitoring Network is used to support and guide Metro Vancouver’s Air Quality Management Plan (AQMP) for the region. The network consists of 27 stations operated by Metro Vancouver and the Fraser Valley Regional District. Six of those stations (T12, T20, T27, T29, T30 and T33) are also part of the National Air Pollution Surveillance (NAPS) Network operated by Environment Canada.

2.1 AIR QUALITY TRENDS

Estimated emissions of Common Air Contaminants (CAC) in the Lower Fraser Valley (LFV) from 1990 to 2030 were derived by Metro Vancouver (2007). These include gaseous emissions

(CO, NOx, SOx, VOC and NH3), as well as for particulate matter (PM10 and PM2.5) and greenhouse gases (GHG). The inventory includes emissions from all sources in Metro Vancouver, the Fraser Valley Regional District and Whatcom County, WA.

The following sections provide a brief discussion of the major sources of emission for each contaminant and the trends for past and anticipated future emissions.

2.1.1 Carbon Monoxide (CO)

Carbon monoxide is produced by both natural and anthropogenic sources (e.g., automobile emissions, home heating). Natural sources include volcanic eruptions, forest fires and the decomposition of organic materials. Human emissions of CO are primarily caused by the incomplete combustion of fossil fuels.

CO is an odourless, colourless, tasteless gas. When inhaled, CO can combine with haemoglobin to form carboxyhaemoglobin (COHb) which reduces the oxygen-carrying capacity of the blood and impairs the release of oxygen to extra-vascular tissues. This can lead to hypoxia, and cause toxic effects on brain, heart and muscular tissues, and can affect a developing fetus.

The ambient air quality objectives adopted by Metro Vancouver for CO are 30,000 µg/m3 (1- hour average) and 10,000 µg/m3 (8-hour average). The 1-hour average objective was achieved at the National Air Pollution Surveillance (NAPS) monitoring sites in the LFV by 1986, and the 8- hour average objective has been in achievement since 1990. CO levels have continued to decline since the early 1990s. Short-term peak concentrations were less than 1000 µg/m3 at all monitoring locations in the LFV in 2010.

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Light-duty vehicle (LDV) emissions were the dominant source of CO emissions in the LFV over the period 1990-2005, accounting for up to 72% of total emissions in 1990. By 2005, CO emissions from LDV had been reduced by 63% from 1990 levels, and accounted for only 51.9% of total CO emissions. Metro Vancouver forecasts anticipate that CO emissions from LDV will continue to decline until 2020, and only increase slightly from 2020 to 2030 due to increased emissions from non-road equipment, space heating (i.e., buildings) and mobile sources such as aircraft and LDV. In the year 2030, it is anticipated that CO emissions from LDV will account for just 41% of total emissions in the LFV, and that CO emissions in the LFV in 2030 will be 49% lower than they were in 1990.

2.1.2 Nitrogen Oxides (NOx)

The oxides of nitrogen, NO and NO2 (collectively referred to as NOx) are produced primarily by fossil fuel combustion, biomass burning and released from soils (primarily fertilized soils). The reaction of nitrogen with oxygen results in the production of nitrogen oxides (NOx) during fuel combustion. NOx can be produced through biological or atmospheric processes, but monitoring of NOx in urban areas is generally associated with concerns about emissions from combustion processes. In particular, monitoring is generally conducted for two oxides of nitrogen: nitric oxide (NO) and nitrogen dioxide (NO2). NO and NO2 are released in substantial quantities during combustion and have been identified as important pollutants in the lower atmosphere because they are ozone precursors and can contribute to the formation of secondary fine particles as nitrates.

NO2 acts mainly as an irritant affecting the mucosa of the eyes, nose, throat, and respiratory tract. NO2 has an orangey-red colour and irritating odour at high enough concentrations. NO2 is corrosive due to its high potential for oxidation and can cause a reduction in visibility in its role as a smog-forming constituent.

Man-made sources of NO2 include all fossil fuel combustion such as heating buildings, commercial and industrial operations, etc. While motor vehicle exhaust is a important source of

NOx, only a small percentage (5-10%) is emitted as NO2 directly from the tailpipe of diesel engines.

The main component of NOx from tailpipes is NO, which reacts in the atmosphere over time and distance to form NO2. The rate of reaction is influenced by many factors including initial concentration, sunlight, ozone concentrations and the presence and quantity of other compounds such as the hydroxyl radical (OH). Reaction rates are higher in summer than in winter, and higher during the daytime than during the night.

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3 Metro Vancouver has adopted ambient air quality objectives for NO2 of 200 µg/m (1-hour 3 average) and 40 µg/m (annual average). The maximum reported NO2 concentrations for all stations in the LFV in 2010 were less than 120 µg/m3 (1-hour average), and less than 30 µg/m3 (annual average).

The trends in NOx emissions in the LFV indicate that overall emissions have declined by 47% since 1990, from over 100,000 tonnes/year to less than 54,000 tonnes/year in 2010. Metro Vancouver projects that NOx emissions will continue to decline to about 45,000 tonnes/year by the year 2020 and remain at that level until 2030, primarily due to the declining contribution of LDV emissions to total emissions in the LFV from 1990 to 2030. Overall LDV NOx emissions are projected to experience an 87% reduction in emissions over the period 1990-2030. Metro Vancouver projections under the moderate, business as usual case made for the 2005 emission inventory year anticipated that, by 2030, NOx emissions from marine engines and space heating will each exceed LDV emissions, and together were anticipated to account for 45% of total NOx emission in the LFV. However, the low emission scenario for the inventory projections did anticipate the potential benefits for the implementation of a North American Emission Control Area (ECA) under the International Maritime Organization which would result in lower NOx emissions from marine vessels. Since the ECA requirements have now been adopted, Metro Vancouver will be including the NOx emission adjustment in the moderate scenario for the 2010 emissions inventory report.

2.1.3 Sulphur Dioxide (SO2)

Sulphur dioxide is a colourless gas, with an irritating odour at sufficiently high concentrations.

Emissions of SO2 can be oxidized in the atmosphere, leading to the formation of sulphuric acid (H2SO4) and secondary particulate matter as ammonium sulphate [(NH4)2SO4] as a component of fine particulate matter in the atmosphere. Background levels of SO2 tend to be very low, meaning measurable concentrations are usually connected to anthropogenic activity, and occur in or near urban areas.

Sulphur oxides (SOx) are released during the combustion of sulphur bearing fuels. Sulphur dioxide (SO2) makes up the great majority of any SOx found in the lower atmosphere. Due to a substantial lowering of sulphur levels in gasoline and on-road diesel, SO2 emissions from motor vehicles have declined considerably over the past decade. Sulphur levels in on-road diesel engines were reduced to 15 parts per million (ppm) in 2006 which further lowered mobile source

SO2 emissions. The sulphur content of fuels used within the zone of the ECA will reduce SO2 emissions to 10,000 ppm in 2012, and to 1,000 ppm by January 1, 2015.

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Metro Vancouver has adopted ambient air quality objectives of 450 µg/m3 (1-hour average), 125 3 3 µg/m (24-hour average) and 30 µg/m (annual average). The maximum reported SO2 concentrations for all stations in the LFV in 2010 were less than 250 µg/m3 (1-hour average), less than 40 µg/m3 (24-hour average) and less than 10 µg/m3 (annual average).

The projected SO2 emissions for the LFV made by Metro Vancouver for the 2005 inventory year indicated that industrial point sources (specifically petroleum refining, primary metals and non- metallic mineral processing) were the primary sources of SOx emissions in the LFV prior to 2005, but that the relative significance of mobile sources to total emissions was expected to grow over the period 2010 to 2030. Under the moderate, business as usual emission scenario, Metro Vancouver projected that total SOx emissions in the LFV in 2030 would be 30% lower than they were in 1990. However, the low emission scenario for the inventory projections did anticipate the potential benefits for the implementation of an ECA which would result in lower SOx emissions from marine vessels. Since the ECA requirements have now been adopted, Metro Vancouver will be including the SOx emission adjustment in the moderate scenario for the 2010 emissions inventory report.

2.1.4 Ground-level Ozone (O3)

Ozone is a photochemical oxidant that is formed in the atmosphere from chemical reactions involving NOx, ultraviolet radiation (sunlight), oxygen and hydrocarbons (HC). Ozone is a natural component of the atmosphere, with peak concentrations experienced in the lower stratosphere. In the lower troposphere, ground level zone (O3) is a secondary pollutant and can be formed at considerable distances from the origin(s) of the primary pollutants. Relatively high ground-level concentrations can be caused by anthropogenic emissions of NOx and HC, or by natural processes, such as stratospheric intrusion. Stratospheric intrusion involves atmospheric motions that bring ozone-rich air from very high altitudes to the surface.

Variations in weather patterns from year to year can have a large effect on community concentrations of ground-level ozone. It is believed that springtime weather conditions favour the potential for stratospheric intrusion. Higher temperatures and solar insolation in the summer favour production of ozone from NOx and HC released in urban areas. The formation of ozone depends on a rather complex set off reactions that are sensitive to relative concentrations of pollutant precursors. In addition, ozone can be titrated by NO to produce NO2. This can result in ozone concentrations decreasing near NO source regions such as near combustion sources within a city. However, this can result in the NOx being transported from these centres and producing ozone downwind of the source. It is common in many urban areas to observe a decrease in ground-level ozone concentrations during periods of peak NOx emissions.

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Metro Vancouver has adopted an 8-hour average ambient air quality objective of 65 ppb (126 µg/m3), which is numerically identical to the Canada-Wide Standard (CWS), except that the CWS is less stringent since it is applied as the 4th highest measurement annually, averaged over three consecutive years. The CWS for ozone was met at all monitoring stations in the LFV in 2010, and the more stringent Metro Vancouver objective was also met in 2010 for the first time in the last decade. This objective had been exceeded in each of the previous nine years at least once every year.

A recently completed retrospective study of ozone in the LFV (Steyn et al. 2011) concluded that the large VOC reductions that occurred in the LFV over the period 1985-2005, stemming largely from the LDV and petroleum refining sectors, have been effective in reducing ozone concentrations in the Port Moody area. Although some of the benefits of the VOC emissions reductions have likely been offset by the concomitant NOx emission reductions within the LFV, local NOx and VOC emissions reductions have been responsible for decreasing 1-hour average and 8-hour average episodic ozone concentrations in Port Moody and other western areas of the LFV surrounding Port Moody (Coquitlam, Port Coquitlam and Pitt Meadows). On the other hand, the eastern portions of the LFV around Chilliwack have not benefited much from these reductions in emissions of NOx and VOC over the last 20 years. It is considered possible that this region currently has a mixed sensitivity to NOx and VOC emissions, and that VOC reductions and NOx emission reductions have offset one another in terms of ozone production in this part of the LFV. As a result, 8-hour averaged peak ozone concentrations appear to have increased over the same time frame, compared with the decreased levels in the western portions of the LFV.

2.1.5 Volatile Organic Compounds (VOCs)

VOC emissions in the LFV are dominated by emissions from natural sources (i.e., vegetation) which accounted for approximately 36% of total VOC emissions in the LFV in 2010. Other major sources of emission include solvent evaporation (20.5%) and light-duty gasoline vehicles (13%). In fact, area sources, which include natural sources, are currently responsible for 70% of total VOC emission in the LFV. By comparison, the combined total contribution of VOC emissions from marine vessels, on-road diesel trucks and rail locomotives in the LFV is less than 1% of total emissions in the LFV. By 2030, the total VOC emissions in the LFV are expected to be 40% lower than they were in 1990 due in part to large reductions in emissions from gasoline- power vehicles.

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2.1.6 Ammonia (NH3)

Estimated NH3 emissions in the LFV and indicates that these emissions are dominated by agricultural sources. Area sources typically account for over 90% of total emissions, and emissions from agricultural sources are projected to account for most (62.5%) of the projected increase in emissions from 1990 to 2030. By comparison, the contribution from marine vessel emissions accounted for a negligible 0.04% of total ammonia emissions in the LFV in 2010.

2.1.7 Greenhouse Gases (GHG)

Mobile transportation sources are currently the largest source group for GHG emissions in the LFV, accounting for almost 42% of total GHG emissions in 2010. Light-duty gasoline-powered vehicle emissions alone account for 23.9% of total LFV emissions, although those emissions are projected to decrease by about 20% by 2030. By comparison, GHG emissions from area sources (e.g., agricultural activity, landfills residential and commercial space heating) are projected to increase by almost 30% from 2010 to 2030, with the largest increases coming from space heating. Marine vessel emissions contributed only about 2% to total GHG emissions in the LFV in 2010, and their contribution to total emissions in 2030 is expected to increase to only 2.8% of total LFV emissions.

2.1.8 Particulate Matter (PM10 and PM2.5)

Suspended particulate matter (PM) can either be emitted into the atmosphere as primary particulates or produced in the atmosphere as secondary particulates. Primary particulate matter originates from natural sources such as dust disturbed by the action of wind, and from anthropogenic sources, such as the combustion of fuels. Fuel combustion tends to produce smaller PM, whereas fugitive dust tends to be of a larger size fraction. Secondary particles are produced through nucleation within the atmosphere and can grow through the accumulation of material of both gas-phase and particulate matter to its surface. PM can remain suspended in air for as little as a few seconds to as long as several days or even weeks and longer. Loss of particulate matter can either occur by dry deposition (settling) or wet deposition (precipitation). Ambient PM is measured as both ‘inhalable’ particulate matter, which is the fraction of suspended particles with diameters of 10 micrometres (µm) or less and ‘respirable’ particulate matter, which have diameters of 2.5 µm or less. These fractions are denoted as PM10 and PM2.5 respectively.

There is interest in community levels of PM2.5, as health research has indicated the smaller size range of suspended particles can have negative effects on human health at concentrations

380220 - October 2012 2-6 SENES Consultants Limited Air Quality Assessment Deltaport Terminal, Road and Rail Improvement Project typically observed in urban areas. For this reason, PM2.5 is one of two common air contaminants (along with ground-level ozone) with CWS criteria. Exposure to PM2.5 can aggravate pulmonary and cardiovascular disease, increase the occurrence of asthmatic attacks and increase the risk of premature mortality. An additional adverse effect that can be related to ambient PM concentrations is the reduction of visibility.

Metro Vancouver has adopted ambient air quality objectives 50 µg/m3 (24-hour average) and 20 3 3 3 µg/m (annual average) for PM10, and 25 µg/m (24-hour average) and 12 µg/m (annual 3 average) for PM2.5. The progress report on the 2005 AQMP that was prepared in 2008 noted that PM10 concentrations had decreased slightly since 1994. Despite some year-to-year variability, peak 24-hour average PM10 levels had remained relatively constant in recent years. A comprehensive review4 of the LFV Air Quality Monitoring Network in 2008 noted that there was little evidence of any change in PM10 concentrations since the early 1990s at monitoring stations in Kitsilano, Port Moody, Richmond, Pitt Meadows, Abbotsford, Chilliwack or Hope.

Data on PM10 concentrations for the six NAPS monitoring stations in the LFV over the period 1994-2006 indicate a high degree of year-to-year variability in peak concentrations. However, there has been a gradual trend to lower annual average concentrations, from 17 μg/m3 in 1995 to 3 14 μg/m in 2006, a decrease of 17.7%. Therefore, while the peak 24-hour average PM10 concentrations occasionally exceed the ambient air quality objective of 50 µg/m3 at NAPS stations in the LFV, the annual average objective of 20 µg/m3 is achieved.

The available monitoring record for fine particulate matter in the LFV is somewhat shorter than for PM10 levels. However, analysis of the data shows similar trends to PM10 in that PM2.5 concentrations have been relatively constant in recent years, with some year-to-year variability.

Trend analyses conducted for the network review in 2008 reported little change in PM2.5 concentrations in Pitt Meadows, Chilliwack or Hope. Peak 24-hour average PM2.5 concentrations continue to exceed the Metro Vancouver ambient air quality objective of 25 µg/m3, although smoke from forest fires contributed to some of the exceedances in both 2009 and 2010. Ambient levels of PM2.5 were well below the CWS at all locations, and the provincial and annual objective of 8 µg/m3 and planning goal of 6 µg/m3 were also achieved at all monitoring locations.

3 Metro Vancouver 2008. Progress Report Air Quality Management Plan – October 2008. 4 RWDI Air Inc. 2008. Review of the Lower Fraser Valley Ambient Air Quality Monitoring Network. Prepared for metro Vancouver, in association with Sonoma Technology Inc., D.G. Steyn, C. Reuten and Bruce Ainslie.

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2.2 AIR QUALITY IN TSAWWASSEN

Metro Vancouver has conducted two monitoring studies specifically aimed at determining the air quality levels in the vicinity of the marine terminal operations at Roberts Bank. A special air quality monitoring program was conducted in 2002 in the Tsawwassen area of Delta to address enquiries raised by local citizens groups and civic officials (GVRD 2002). The program was aimed at determining the levels of PM10 and PM2.5 in this area. In addition, efforts were made to identify the contribution of fugitive coal dust emissions from the Westshore coal port to ambient concentrations of particulate matter. The program was conducted during the period June 1 to August 24, 2002. The results of the monitoring program were summarized as follows:

 Measured PM10 and PM2.5 levels in the Tsawwassen area are well below the most stringent established health-based objectives and/or standards;

 Measured concentrations of PM10 and PM2.5 are similar in magnitude and pattern to values measured elsewhere within the region;  Particulate levels measured at English Bluff are representative of those experienced elsewhere in other parts of Tsawwassen;  No site in the Tsawwassen area was unduly influenced by any one emission source (based on statistical and visual analyses);

 The ratio of PM2.5/PM10 are similar to other sites located in the Metro Vancouver area;  Overall, visual analysis of particles showed that only a very small percentage (<1%) were identifiable as coal particles.

A second special monitoring program was conducted at several locations in the Ladner and Roberts Bank foreshore area during the period June 2004 and March 2006 (GVRD 2006). The program was conducted to measure CO, NOx, SO2 and PM2.5 concentrations and to compare these to established objectives and/or standards. The results of the monitoring program determined that:

 24-hour average PM2.5 concentrations in the study area were below the Metro Vancouver objective of 25 µg/m3, and that the levels observed in the monitoring locations were the same as or lower than levels measured at other monitoring stations in Metro Vancouver even though efforts were made to conduct the monitoring in Delta in the more urbanized areas and closer to transportation routes;

 Annual average PM2.5 concentrations in the study area were less than 50% of the Metro Vancouver objective and less than levels observed in neighbouring municipalities;

 CO and SO2 concentrations in the study area were very low (less than 10%) when compared to Metro Vancouver objectives;

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 NO2 concentrations in the study area were less than 50% of the Metro Vancouver objectives and were lower than other comparable monitoring sites in Metro Vancouver even though efforts were made to conduct the monitoring in Delta in the more urbanized areas and closer to transportation routes.

In short, the monitoring study concluded that the measured air quality within the Delta study area was generally good as compared with other locations in Metro Vancouver.

Metro Vancouver currently operates an air quality monitoring station in the English Bluff area of Tsawwassen, which is funded by Port Metro Vancouver. Designated as Station T39 in the Metro Vancouver network of monitoring stations, the monitoring site is located in the northwest portion of Pebble Hill Park. The T39 station provides monitoring data for CO, NO and NO2, SO2, O3 and PM2.5, as well as the meteorological parameters of wind speed, wind direction and temperature.

Figure 2.1 depicts the location of the station relative to the Deltaport Terminal at Roberts Bank. The station was established in the spring of 2010, and Metro Vancouver provided a full year of monitoring data for the site from June 2010 to the end of May 2011. This data forms the primary basis for estimates of the existing air quality impacts of emissions from the marine terminal operations at Roberts Bank evaluated in this report.

The location for the monitoring station was chosen specifically in order to obtain a measure of the impact of emissions from the marine terminals at Roberts Bank. Figure 2.2 shows the frequency of winds by direction at T39 for the period of record from June 2010 to May 2011. The data indicate that air flow at English Bluff is largely channelled parallel to Georgia Strait, with prevailing winds from the SSE. There is a lower frequency of winds from the NW in the general direction of Roberts Bank, and relatively few winds from the W through SW. Thus, emissions from the marine terminals at Roberts Bank are most likely to be carried away from shore over Georgia Strait, with some of the emissions being transported toward English Bluff. Emissions from Roberts Bank are only infrequently transported directly eastward to the northern portion of Tsawwassen or towards Ladner.

For the purposes of evaluating the contribution of emissions from the marine terminals at Roberts Bank to the air quality concentrations measured at Station T39, the wind sector from 260o to 340o was considered to be the direction of possible influence as ships approach the Roberts Bank terminals up to and including all on-road vehicular and rail traffic along the Deltaport causeway. Any emissions from the Tsawwassen ferry terminal and traffic along the ferry terminal causeway would of necessity be included in this sector. Therefore, not all of the

380220 - October 2012 2-9 SENES Consultants Limited Air Quality Assessment Deltaport Terminal, Road and Rail Improvement Project air contaminant concentrations recorded at T39 from this sector can be solely attributed to operations at Roberts Bank.

Figure 2.1 – Location of Station T39 in Tsawwassen

Deltaport

260 Station T39 Westshore ˚-340˚ sector

Tsawwassen Ferry Terminal

380220 - October 2012 2-10 SENES Consultants Limited Air Quality Assessment Deltaport Terminal, Road and Rail Improvement Project WIND ROSE PLOT: DISPLAY: Station #11024 Wind Speed Direction (blowing from) Figure 2.2 – Station T39 Wind Rose

Pollution Rose Plot: Display:

Station # 1102425 Tsawwassen, BC Wind Speed Direction (blowing From)

NORTH

20%

16%

12%

WEST EAST

WIND SPEED (m/s)

>= 8.0 6.0 - 8.0 4.0 - 6.0 SOUTH 2.0 - 4.0 1.0 - 2.0 Data Period: Legend: 0.5 - 1.0 Calms: 6.98% Date: 12/10/2011 Start Date: 06/05/2010 Project Name: Wind Speed (m/s)

End Date: 31/05/2011 >=8

COMMENTS:Comments: DATAAverage PERIOD: Wind Speed TotalCOMPANY Count: NAME: 9369 6.0.0 - Start(m/s): Date: 1.86 06/05/2010 - 00:00hours End Date: 31/05/2011 - 23:00 4.08.0- Calm Winds: 6.98% MODELER: 2.06.0-

1.04.0- CALM WINDS: TOTAL COUNT:

6.98% 9369 hrs. 0.52.0-

AVG. WIND SPEED: DATE: 1.0PROJECT NO.:

1.86 m/s 28/11/2011

WRPLOT View - Lakes Environmental Software

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2.3 HOURLY AVERAGED CONCENTRATIONS

Table 2.1 provides a summary of the observed 1-hour average CAC air quality levels in the available monitoring period. The data are presented for two wind direction sectors: 1) from 260o to 340o representing the direction from which emissions at Roberts Bank and along the Deltaport causeway would be carried to Station T39, and 2) 340o to 260o representing the direction from which all other emissions sources would affect observations at the monitoring location. Also listed in Table 2.1 are the relevant Ambient Air Quality Objectives (AAQO) adopted by Metro Vancouver and the National Ambient Air Quality Objectives defined by the Federal Government for ground-level ozone.

The data for Sector 260o to 340o includes emissions from the ferry terminal and causeway adjacent to Roberts Bank, as well as some emissions from marine vessels sailing in Georgia Strait but not connected to operations at Roberts Bank. As such, the observed air quality levels for the sector 260o to 340o may actually overestimate the relative magnitude of the contribution from emissions at Roberts Bank alone for some contaminants. However, for SO2 emissions, the bulk of which are almost entirely related to emissions from marine vessels, the highest hourly averaged concentration of 53.5 µg/m3 occurred on June 22, 2010 with a wind direction of 268o, placing the T39 monitoring station directly downwind of Roberts Bank.

As is evident from Table 2.1 all of the observed hourly averaged CAC concentrations are well below the regulatory objectives for CO, NO2 and SO2, while the O3 levels meet the Maximum Acceptable NAAQO level but exceed the Maximum Desirable NAAQO level. There are no hourly objectives for PM2.5. The maximum observed concentrations of CO and SO2 are higher for winds from the direction of Roberts Bank, but the maximum observed concentrations of NO2, O3 and PM2.5 are higher for winds from other source regions.

Figure 2.3 to Figure 2.7, provide a graphical comparison of the data in Table 2.1, while Figure 2.8 to Figure 2.11 provide pollution roses for the five CAC monitored at Station T39.

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Table 2.1 – Observed 1-hour Average Concentrations (µg/m3) for Station T39 (June 2010 – May 2011)

CO NO2 SO2 O3 PM2.5

Metro Vancouver AAQO 30000 200 450

NAAQO - Max. Desirable 100

NAAQO - Max. Acceptable 160

All Data Filtereda

260o-340o Sector Direction of Emissions From Roberts Bank Maximum 800.4 62.5 53.5 108.2 41.6 20.3 Minimum 92.8 1.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 Mean 191.2 13.4 2.5 48.2 3.8 3.4 5th Percentile 127.6 2.7 0.3 8.8 0.2 0.2 25th Percentile 162.4 5.7 0.8 34.2 1.8 1.7 50th Percentile 185.6 10.1 1.6 48.2 3.0 3.0 75th Percentile 208.8 17.6 3.2 65.2 4.6 4.5 98th Percentile 348.0 43.8 11.5 85.8 14.4 9.8 99th Percentile 371.2 49.3 14.7 89.0 20.3 11.3

340o-260o Sector Direction of Emissions from Other Source Regions Maximum 696.0 120.1 34.6 127.6 45.7 41.2 Minimum 81.2 0.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 Mean 197.3 12.1 1.8 50.1 3.4 3.3 5th Percentile 127.6 2.1 0.3 5.9 0.0 0.0 25th Percentile 162.4 4.4 0.5 34.0 1.4 1.4 50th Percentile 185.6 8.0 1.3 51.8 2.7 2.6 75th Percentile 220.4 15.5 2.1 68.0 4.5 4.5 98th Percentile 394.4 46.4 7.2 91.6 11.4 10.5 99th Percentile 440.8 51.6 9.3 94.8 14.8 12.0 Note: a Filtered data for PM2.5 excludes days with elevated concentrations due to forest fires on August 4-6 and 15-17, 2010

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Figure 2.3 – Observed Hourly Averaged CO Concentrations at T39 Figure 2.4 – Observed Hourly Averaged NO2 Concentrations at T39 Figure 2.5 – Observed Hourly Averaged SO2 Concentrations at T39

35000 500

Metro Vancouver AAQO 450 Metro Vancouver AAQO 30000 Metro Vancouver AAQO 200 400 Filtered (260-340) Filtered (260-340) Filtered (260-340)

25000 Filtered (<260, >340) 350 Filtered (<260, >340)

Filtered (<260, >340)

)

) 3 3 150 300 20000

250

15000

100 Concentration(µg/m 200

Concentration(µg/m

CO NO 150 10000

100 50

5000 50

0 0 0 MAX MIN MEAN 5 PERCENTILE 25 PERCENTILE 50 PERCENTILE 75 PERCENTILE 98 PERCENTILE 99 PERCENTILE MAX MIN MEAN 5 PERCENTILE 25 PERCENTILE 50 PERCENTILE 75 PERCENTILE 98 PERCENTILE 99 PERCENTILE MAX MIN MEAN 5 PERCENTILE 25 PERCENTILE 50 PERCENTILE 75 PERCENTILE 98 PERCENTILE 99 PERCENTILE

Figure 2.6 – Observed Hourly Averaged O3 Concentrations at T39 Figure 2.7 – Observed Hourly Averaged PM2.5 Concentrations at T39

180 50

Maximum Acceptable NAAQO 160 45

40 140

Filtered (260-340) 35

) 120 3

Filtered (<260, >340) ) 3

30 Filtered (260-340) 100 Filtered (<260, >340) 25 80

Concentration(ug/m 20 2.5

Ozone ConcentrationOzone (µg/m 60 PM

40 10

20 5

0 MAX MIN MEAN 5 PERCENTILE 25 PERCENTILE 50 PERCENTILE 75 PERCENTILE 98 PERCENTILE 99 PERCENTILE 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

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Figure 2.8 – CO Pollution Rose for T39 Figure 2.9 – NO2 Pollution Rose for T39

WIND ROSE PLOT: DISPLAY: WIND ROSE PLOT: DISPLAY: Display: Wind Speed Display: Wind Speed Pollution Rose Plot: Direction (blowing from) Pollution Rose Plot: Direction (blowing from) Carbon Monoxide (µg/m3) with Wind Direction (blowing Nitrogen Dioxide (µg/m3) with Wind Direction (blowing Station # 1102425 Tsawwassen, BC Station # 1102425 Tsawwassen, BC From) From)

NORTH NORTH

20% 20%

16% 16%

12% 12%

8% 8%

4% 4%

WEST EAST WEST EAST

WIND SPEED WIND SPEED (m/s) (m/s)

>= 250.0 >= 40.0 225.0 - 250.0 20.0 - 40.0 200.0 - 225.0 10.0 - 20.0 SOUTH SOUTH 175.0 - 200.0 8.0 - 10.0

150.0 - 175.0 4.0 - 8.0 100.0 - 150.0 1.0 - 4.0 Data Period: Legend: Data Period: Legend: Calms: 0.17% Calms: 0.06% 3 3 CO (µg/m ) NO2 (µg/m ) Date: 28/11/2011 Project Name: Date: 28/11/2011 Project Name: Start Date: 06/05/2010 Start Date: 06/05/2010 COMMENTS: DATA PERIOD: COMPANY NAME: COMMENTS: DATA PERIOD: COMPANY NAME:

End Date: 31/Start05 Date:/201 06/05/20101 - 00:00 >=250 End Date: Start31/05/2011 Date: 06/05/2010 - 00:00 >=40.0 End Date: 31/05/2011 - 23:00 End Date: 31/05/2011 - 23:00 MODELER: 225-250 MODELER: 20.0- Comments: Average Concentration 200-225 Comments: Average Concentration 10.040.0- 3 3 (µg/m ): 195CALM WINDS: Total Count:TOTAL 8880 COUNT: hours 175-200 (µg/m ): 12.35CALM WINDS: Total Count: 9130TOTAL hoursCOUNT: 20.08.0- 0.17% 8880 hrs. 250-175 0.06% 9130 hrs. 4.010.0-8.0

AVG. WIND SPEED: DATE: PROJECT NO.: AVG. WIND SPEED: DATE: PROJECT NO.:

100-150 1.0-4.0 194.60 m/s 28/11/2011 12.35 m/s 28/11/2011

WRPLOT View - Lakes Environmental Software WRPLOT View - Lakes Environmental Software

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WIND ROSE PLOT: DISPLAY: Figure 2.10 – SO2 Pollution Rose WIND ROSE PLOT: Figure 2.11 – O3 Pollution Rose for T39DISPLAY: Wind Speed Wind Speed Direction (blowing from) Direction (blowing from) Pollution Rose Plot: Display: Pollution Rose Plot: Display:

3 3 Station # 1102425 Tsawwassen, BC Sulphur Dioxide (µg/m ) with Wind Direction (blowing From) Station # 1102425 Tsawwassen, BC O3 (µg/m ) with Wind Direction (blowing From)

NORTH NORTH

15% 20%

12% 16%

9% 12%

6% 8%

3% 4%

WEST EAST WEST EAST

WIND SPEED WIND SPEED (m/s) (m/s)

>= 5.0 >= 100.0 4.0 - 5.0 80.0 - 100.0 3.0 - 4.0 60.0 - 80.0 SOUTH SOUTH 2.0 - 3.0 40.0 - 60.0

1.0 - 2.0 20.0 - 40.0 Data Period: Legend: 0.5 - 1.0 10.0 - 20.0 Calms: 11.86% Data Period: Legend: Calms: 6.51% 3 SO2 (µg/m ) 3 Date: 28/11/2011 Project Name: Date: O3 (µg/m ) Start Date: 06/05/2010 Project Name: COMMENTS: DATA PERIOD: COMPANY NAME: 28/11/2011COMMENTS: Start Date: 06/05/2010DATA PERIOD: COMPANY NAME: End Date: 31/05/2011 >=5.0 Start Date: 06/05/2010 - 00:00 End Date: 31/05/2011Start Date: 06/05/2010 - 00:00 >=100.0 End Date: 31/05/2011 - 23:00 End Date: 31/05/2011 - 23:00 4.0-5.0 MODELER: MODELER: 80.0-100.0 Comments: Average Concentration 3.0-4.0 Comments: 3 Average Concentration 60.0-80.0 CALM WINDS: TOTAL COUNT: (µg/m ): 1.88CALM WINDS: Total Count: 9123TOTAL hours COUNT: 2.0-3.0 (µg/m3): 49.5 Total Count: 9135 hours 40.0-60.0 11.86% 9123 hrs. 1.0-2.0 6.51% 9135 hrs.

AVG. WIND SPEED: DATE: PROJECT NO.: AVG. WIND SPEED: DATE: PROJECT NO.: 20.0-40.0

0.5-1.0 1.88 m/s 28/11/2011 49.52 m/s 28/11/2011 10.0-20.0

WRPLOT View - Lakes Environmental Software WRPLOT View - Lakes Environmental Software

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WIND ROSE PLOT: Figure 2.12 – PM2.5 Pollution Rose for T39DISPLAY: Wind Speed Direction (blowing from) Pollution Rose Plot: Display:

3 Station # 1102425 Tsawwassen, BC PM2.5 (µg/m ) with Wind Direction (blowing From)

NORTH

15%

12%

WEST EAST

WIND SPEED (Knots)

>= 19 10 - 19 8 - 9 SOUTH 6 - 7 4 - 5 1 - 3 Calms: 10.52% Data Period: Legend:

3 PM2.5 (µg/m )

Date: 12/10/2011COMMENTS: DATA PERIOD: Project Name: COMPANY NAME: Start Date: 11/06/2010 Start Date: 11/06/2010 - 00:00 End Date: 31/05/2011End Date: 31/05/2011 - 23:00 >=10 MODELER: 5-10 Average Concentration Comments: CALM WINDS: TOTAL COUNT: 4-5 3 (µg/m ): 3.44 10.52% Total Count: 78587858 hours hrs. 3-4

AVG. WIND SPEED: DATE: PROJECT NO.: 2-3 6.69 Knots 12/10/2011

0.5-2

WRPLOT View - Lakes Environmental Software

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The pollution roses for CO and NO2 (Figure 2.8 and Figure 2.9) indicate that hourly averaged concentrations of these two contaminants are similar regardless of which direction the wind is blowing from, indicating that these contaminants are ubiquitous in the environment around Station T39. Concentrations are not higher for winds blowing from the direction of the Roberts

Bank marine terminals than for winds from any other direction. The same can be said for the O3 pollution rose in Figure 2.11.

On the other hand, the pollution rose for SO2 (Figure 2.10) is quite different from those for CO, NO2 and O3 in that there is clearly a higher contribution for winds from Georgia Strait and from the marine terminals at Roberts Bank. This reflects the higher contribution of SO2 emissions from marine vessels. With the adoption of the sulphur Emissions Control Area (ECA) in North America beginning in 2012, the sulphur content of marine fuels will be reduced by about 96% by January 1, 2015. As a consequence, the marine vessel contributions to the pollution wind rose for winds from the SW through NW will be largely eliminated. This does not, however, mean that SO2 concentrations at Station T39 will be similarly reduced by 96% because, as is evident in Figure 2.9, hourly averaged concentrations greater than 5 µg/m3 are also recorded at this location for winds from the SSE through to the east. The concentrations of SO2 from the SSE and SE are most likely associated with emissions from the oil refineries at Cherry Point, WA, while those from the east may be attributable to emissions from the cement plant on Tilbury Island. These two sources of SO2 emission were previously identified as contributors to SO2 concentrations in Tsawwassen in the analysis of the monitoring data collected by Metro Vancouver’s Mobile Air Monitoring Unit (MAMU) from June 1st to June 11st and July 28th to August 4th, 2004 in the 6000 Block of 45th Avenue near Highway 17.

3 Figure 2.12 shows that hourly averaged PM2.5 concentrations greater than 10 µg/m can be recorded at Station T39 for any wind direction. However, Figure 2.6 indicates that the PM2.5 concentrations from the direction of the Roberts Bank marine terminals tend to be slightly higher at the higher percentile levels than for other wind directions. Because the reduction in fuel sulphur levels under the ECA will also have a beneficial effect in reducing PM2.5 emissions, it is reasonable to assume that there would be some reduction in ambient PM2.5 concentrations for wind flow from this direction in the future, although the reduction would not be anywhere near as large as that for SO2 emissions.

2.4 8-HOUR AND DAILY AVERAGED CONCENTRATIONS

Ambient concentrations of NO2, SO2 and PM2.5 are also regulated on the basis of daily averaged concentrations, while CO and O3 regulated on the basis of 8-hour averaged concentrations. Table 2.2 provides a summary of the maximum observed concentrations of these contaminants in

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relation to the ambient air quality objectives adopted by Metro Vancouver, the Government of British Columbia and the Federal Government. Because wind direction can change over the course of several hours, it is not possible to clearly differentiate between concentrations due to wind flow from the direction of the Roberts Bank terminals and other wind directions in the same way that was done for hourly averaged concentrations.

Table 2.2 – Observed 8-hour & 24-hour Average Concentrations (µg/m3) for Station T39 (June 2010 – May 2011)

CO NO2 SO2 O3 PM2.5

Averaging Period (hours) 8 24 24 8 24 Canada-Wide Standard 127.6b 30a (CWS) Metro Vancouver AAQO 10,000 127.6

Metro Vancouver AAQO 200 125 25

All Data Filteredc

Maximum 503.2 48.1 7.1 109.2 25.8 9.5 Minimum 102.5 2.5 0.09 0.0 0.05 0.05 Mean 196.2 12.3 1.9 49.7 3.4 3.2 5th Percentile 132.0 4.0 0.5 11.0 1.0 0.9 25th Percentile 161.0 6.8 1.0 35.1 1.8 1.8 50th Percentile 185.6 10.0 1.7 50.7 2.9 2.8 75th Percentile 215.2 16.3 2.5 65.8 4.3 4.3 98th Percentile 361.1 37.8 6.0 87.7 9.0 8.2 99th Percentile 388.9 39.9 6.4 90.9 15.6 8.7 Notes: a CWS attainment based on the 98th percentile averaged over 3 consecutive years b CWS attainment based on the annual 4th highest daily measurement, averaged over 3 consecutive years c Filtered data excludes elevated PM2.5 concentrations due to smoke from forest fires for two periods, August 4-6 and August 15- 17, 2010

As is evident from Table 2.2, all of the maximum observed concentrations for the four gaseous

contaminants (CO, NO2, SO2 and O3) meet the ambient air quality criteria adopted by regulatory agencies. In fact, both the CO and SO2 concentrations are at approximately 5% of the objective concentration for each contaminant. The data in Table 2.2 are graphically displayed in Figures Figure 2.13 to Figure 2.17.

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Only the AAQO adopted by Metro Vancouver for PM2.5 was exceeded during the year of recorded observations, and that by less than 1 µg/m3 on one day of the year (August 15, 2010). The exceedance of the objective coincided with similar exceedances and elevated concentrations that occurred throughout the LFV caused by smoke from forest fires (Metro Vancouver 2011). However, excluding the days with smoke from forest fires, 99% of the time ambient PM2.5 concentrations at T39 were at approximately 35% of the AAQO, while the 98th percentile was slightly more than one-quarter of the CWS value.

2.5 SUMMARY

The T39 Station in Tsawwassen provides a good indication of the impact of emissions from the marine terminals at Roberts Bank on air quality at English Bluff in Tsawwassen where the impacts on land from emissions at the terminals are most likely to occur. The available monitoring data indicates that the area experiences overall good air quality. The levels of all gaseous contaminants monitored at the station were well within the ambient air quality objectives and standards set by Metro Vancouver, the Province of British Columbia and the Federal Government. In fact, the concentrations of CO and SO2 are small fractions of the objectives, and the levels of SO2 are likely to decline further in the future as a result of the adoption of a sulphur Emission Control Area for shipping in North America. However, contributions of SO2 from oil refineries south of the border and a cement plant to the east of Tsawwassen will limit the degree of reduction in SO2 levels at T39.

Hourly averaged concentrations of NO2 at T39 are actually higher at the highest percentile levels for winds from directions other than from the marine terminals, indicating that other sources of emission in the vicinity of the monitoring site contribute more to the highest NO2 levels than do the marine terminals. The maximum contribution to hourly averaged NO2 concentrations from the direction of the marine terminals is less than one-third of the Metro Vancouver AAQO, while the maximum 24-hour average NO2 concentration from all directions was less than one-quarter of the AAQO.

Ozone is a secondary contaminant formed in the atmosphere from the emission of NOx and VOC. The available monitoring data at Station T39 indicate that the contaminant is ubiquitous in the area, but that the hourly averaged concentrations are slightly higher for wind directions other than those coming from the direction of the marine terminals at Roberts Bank.

The Metro Vancouver AAQO for 24-hour average PM2.5 was once exceeded during the year of recorded observations, and that by less than 1 µg/m3 during a period of elevated pollution from forest fires in the region. Excluding the days with smoke from forest fires, 99% of the time th ambient PM2.5 concentrations at T39 were at approximately 35% of the AAQO, while the 98 percentile was slightly more than one-quarter of the CWS value.

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Figure 2.13 – Observed 8-hour Averaged CO Concentrations at T39 Figure 2.14 – Observed 24-hour Averaged SO2 Concentrations at T39 Figure 2.15 – Observed 24-hour Averaged PM2.5 Concentrations at T39

12000 140 40

Metro Vancouver AAQO 35 Metro Vancouver AAQO 10000 115 CWS

) ) 8000 3

3 90 Metro Vancouver AAQO )

3 25

6000 65

Concentration(ug/m 2.5

Concentration(µg/m 15

PM SO Ozone ConcentrationOzone (µg/m 4000 40

2000 15 5

MAX MIN MEAN 5 PERCENTILE 25 PERCENTILE 50 PERCENTILE 75 PERCENTILE 98 PERCENTILE 99 PERCENTILE 0 0 MAX MIN MEAN 5 PERCENTILE 25 PERCENTILE 50 PERCENTILE 75 PERCENTILE 98 PERCENTILE 99 PERCENTILE MAX MIN MEAN 5 PERCENTILE 25 PERCENTILE 50 PERCENTILE 75 PERCENTILE 98 PERCENTILE 99 PERCENTILE -10

Note: Filtered data excludes effect of smoke from forest fires on August 4-

6 and 15-17, 2010

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Figure 2.16 – Observed 24-hour Averaged NO2 Concentrations at T39 Figure 2.17 – Observed 8-hour Averaged O3 Concentrations at T39

225 140 Metro Vancouver AAQO CWS Metro Vancouver AAQO 200 120

175

100

150 )

) 3

80 125

100

Concentration(µg/m

2 NO 75 ConcentrationOzone (µg/m

20 25

0 0 MAX MIN MEAN 5 PERCENTILE 25 PERCENTILE 50 PERCENTILE 75 PERCENTILE 98 PERCENTILE 99 PERCENTILE MAX MIN MEAN 5 PERCENTILE 25 PERCENTILE 50 PERCENTILE 75 PERCENTILE 98 PERCENTILE 99 PERCENTILE

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3.0 REGULATORY INITIATIVES IN FUTURE EMISSION SCENARIOS

For each of the horizon years of projected emissions from the Deltaport Terminal, Westshore Terminals and the proposed Terminal 2 at Roberts Bank, a number of assumptions were required to be made in order to account for regulatory initiatives that are anticipated to take effect in the future whose effect would be to reduce emissions from new equipment or as a result of fuel quality and usage. The initiatives and their adoption in the assessment of future emissions are briefly described below. Their application to specific types of engines is discussed in more detail in Appendix A.

3.1 MARINE ENGINES

The regulatory initiatives considered in this assessment for marine engines are related to fuel quality standards under ECA and to engine emission standards as defined under both the ECA and International Maritime Organization (IMO) initiatives. The most immediate of these is the ECA initiative adopted by Canada and the United States which mandates the use of low sulphur fuels within a 200 mile (320 km) distance of the coast on North America. Emission standards for ships trading internationally are agreed to at the IMO level. Within the framework of the IMO standards, countries are allowed to establish Emission Control Areas.

The United States and Canada submitted a joint application to the IMO to establish an ECA zone within their respective territorial waters. At present, the average fuel sulphur content of marine fuel used by commercial vessels in Vancouver is about 2.7%. Beginning on August 1, 2012, all vessels within the ECA zone will be required to use fuel with no more than 1% fuel sulphur content. By January 1, 2015, ships will not be allowed to use fuel with sulphur content greater than 0.1%. This requirement will result in a reduction in SO2 emissions of approximately 96% from marine vessels compared to existing levels. Because the emission of PM2.5 is partially related to SO2 emissions, the reduction in fuel sulphur content will also result in lower PM2.5 emissions as well. In addition, the ECA will require that newer ships have reduced levels of NOx emission, representing an 80% reduction in emissions from current standards.

For the purposes of the DTRRIP and CEA assessments presented in this report, the provisions for fuel sulphur content were applied such that the average fuel sulphur content for the 2010 horizon year was assumed to be 2.7%, reduced to 1% for the 2014 horizon year and to 0.1% for the 2017 horizon year and beyond. PM2.5 emissions were adjusted accordingly in association with fuel sulphur content. Reductions in NOx emissions were introduced based on the assumption of the rate of fleet turnover for both container ships and bulk carriers. The fleet turnover rate for ships is described in Appendix A. No adjustments to emission rates were made for tug boats used to assist marine vessels at the terminals as there was no information available about fleet turnover rates for tug boats.

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3.2 CARGO HANDLING EQUIPMENT (CHE)

3.2.1 DTRRIP CHE

There are no specific regulations for the control of emissions from CHE. Port Metro Vancouver is working jointly with the Ports of Seattle and Tacoma on the Northwest Ports Clean Air Strategy (Strategy) that has established emission reduction targets for CHE 2010 and 2015. This program is voluntary and is presently being updated for 2012 and this initiative has not been included in this assessment. Emission reductions from CHE are however anticipated to occur as a result of normal equipment fleet turnover to newer, lower emitting equipment as each piece of equipment reaches the end of its useful working life.

The largest emission reductions are anticipated to occur as a result of the replacement of the Rubber-Tired Gantry (RTG) cranes at the Deltaport Terminal after 2020. At that time, it has been assumed that the RTG would be replaced by electric-powered cranes.

3.2.2 CEA CHE

For proposed Terminal 2, total CHE emissions are much lower than for the Deltaport Terminal because the design of proposed Terminal 2 assumes that a large portion of the CHE will be electric-powered rather than diesel-powered. Any diesel-powered equipment would meet the more stringent emission standards in place in 2020.

No changes were anticipated for CHE at the Westshore Terminal from that which was in use in 2010. It is reasonable to assume that any changes in the CHE at Westshore would meet newer, more stringent emission standards. However, there is no information on the timing of any such changes in equipment at the Westshore Terminal.

3.3 ON-ROAD VEHICLES

On-road vehicles are regulated to meet the emission standards in place at the time of manufacture. In addition, however, Port Metro Vancouver has instituted a Truck Licensing System (TLS) that limits the age of trucks that are allowed to operate on port lands, or requires operators of older trucks to obtain an age exemption. Emissions from employee-owned vehicles are also subject to the AirCare vehicle inspection and maintenance program in the LFV up to 2014.

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3.3.1 Container Trucks

The Port Metro Vancouver TLS Program requires truck operators to meet the requirements listed in Table 3.1:

Table 3.1 – TLS Program Requirements for Trucks at Port Metro Vancouver

Category Requirement

Trucks 2006 and older NOT already in the TLS are prohibited after April 1, 2011 Truck Age Trucks 1998 and older already in the TLS can only remain in the TLS with an approved ‘Age Exception’ 2001 and older trucks are required to be tested annually and ‘pass’ the test by showing Exhaust Opacity emissions results of 20% or less. No more than 3 continuous minutes in any 60 minute period (all trucks) on Port Idling Limits Property Awareness Program Mandatory Awareness Sheet review for all trucks, when applying for license/permit

As of September 2011, all 1998 and older model year trucks operating at the Deltaport Terminal had received the required age exemption. The granting of an age exception to trucks is dependent on those vehicles having an emission reduction measure (ERM) retrofitted that reduces emissions to at least the 1999 model year level. The provisions of the TLS program were incorporated into the fleet-averaged emission factors used to estimate emissions for the horizon years 2010 and 2014. The need for the truck age and exhaust opacity requirements of the TLS program beyond 2014 was assumed to be diminished due to more stringent emission standards on newer trucks and the gradual reduction of older trucks from the TLS program as a proportion of the overall fleet. Nevertheless, older trucks with ERMs were assumed to continue to operate after 2014 until their normal replacement through fleet turnover. The idling limits of the TLS program were assumed to continue after 2014.

3.3.2 Employee-owned Vehicles

For light-duty gasoline-powered vehicles operated by employees at the terminals, emissions were reduced based on the presence of the AirCare inspection and maintenance program in the Lower Fraser Valley. The AirCare program will be discontinued after 2014. However, employee- owned vehicles contribute a marginal amount of emission to total emissions from marine vessels, CHE, container trucks and rail locomotives. Therefore, the difference in emissions from these vehicles with or without the AirCare program is negligible.

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3.4 RAIL LOCOMOTIVES

The authority for regulating railway locomotive emissions lies with Transport Canada under the Railway Safety Act. Environment Canada monitors locomotive emissions through information provided under a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) signed by Environment Canada, the Canadian Council of Ministers of the Environment and the Railway Association of Canada in 1995. The MOU sets a cap on annual NOx emissions from railway locomotives operating in Canada of 115,000 tonnes per annum. This agreement expired in 2005 (DieselNet 2011).

In 2007, the United States Environmental Protection Agency (US EPA) issued a set of draft regulations for rail locomotive engines. The draft regulations were finalized in March 2008. The regulations do not affect engines that are in current operation in the U.S., but do require Tier 0 and Tier 1 engines that are remanufactured after 2010 to meet new emission standards. Engines that are not undergoing remanufacture are not required to meet the new standards.

The new US EPA emission standards are the first to be defined for these types of engines anywhere in the world. There has been no indication to date as to whether or not Environment Canada or Transport Canada will opt to maintain consistency with the United States on these standards for locomotives in Canada, and no provincial environment ministries have adopted similar emission standards. Canadian Off-Road Compression-Ignition Engine Emission Regulations are aligned with the engine certification values of the US EPA Tier 2 and Tier 3 values for engines manufactured after 2006. However, Canadian regulations are silent with respect to any emission standards for Tier 0 engines and Tier 1 engines.

For the purposes of this assessment, it has been assumed that all of the switch locomotives used at the container terminals in the LFV will meet Tier 1 emission standards for all horizon years. However, line-haul locomotives were assumed to be split into 50% Tier 1 and 50% Tier 2 locomotives in 2010, and to be gradually replaced through normal fleet turnover by Tier 2, Tier 3 and Tier 4 locomotives over the period 2014 to 2030, such that 50% of line-haul locomotives operating in 2025 and 2030 meet the Tier 3 emission standards and the remaining 50% meet Tier 4 emission standards defined by the US EPA. It is reasonable to assume that new engines brought into use in Canada will be manufactured to the same emission specifications as those built for the U.S. market. Details on the assumed mix of rail locomotives meeting different Tier standards are provided in Appendix A.

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4.0 DTRRIP EMISSION INVENTORY ASSESSMENT

The DTRRIP effects assessment for air quality includes estimates of air contaminant emissions for existing operations at the Deltaport Terminal in 2010, as well as estimates of future projections of emissions for the five horizon years to 2030.

Emissions were calculated for four source groups at Deltaport:

 Marine Vessels o Activity consisting of underway, manoeuvring and while at berth o Main engines, auxiliary engines and boilers o Tug boat assist vessels  Cargo Handling Equipment (CHE) o Reach stackers o Rubber-tired gantry (RTG) cranes o Top and/or side picks or reach stackers o Yard trucks (hostlers or terminal tractors)  On-road Vehicles o Container trucks, service vehicles and employee-owned vehicles  Rail Locomotives

Details of the assumptions used to calculate the emission inventories for each source group are presented in Appendix A.

4.1 DTRRIP ANNUAL EMISSION INVENTORY

The DTRRIP emission inventory is presented as both local emissions that occur in the immediate vicinity of the Deltaport terminal, and regional emissions that occur within a selected area of the western portion of the Lower Fraser Valley (LFV) and Georgia Strait. The geographic scope within which emissions were estimated is shown in Figure 4.1 and 4.2. Emissions were categorized as local if they resulted from activity in the immediate vicinity of Roberts Bank, and regional if the emissions are derived from transport to and from Roberts Bank, either by ship, rail or truck. Local emission estimates were used to calculate anticipated changes in air quality at the T39 monitoring station in Tsawwassen and along Highway 17 in 2010 or along the SFPR in 2014 and all subsequent horizon years. Regional emission estimates include local emission estimates, in addition to emissions from ship movements in Georgia Strait and container truck and rail locomotives along specific travel corridors in Delta and Richmond.

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Marine vessel emissions were categorized as regional emissions if they occur within Georgia Strait from the southern tip of Saturna Island up to and including English Bay (as shown in polygons 1-4 of Figure 4.1) because any emissions within this area are likely to contribute to overall air quality within the LFV. This is a much larger area than was previously considered in the air quality assessment for the Deltaport Third Berth Project. In the latter project, container vessel emissions were only estimated for the short distance from the United States border in Georgia Strait to Roberts Bank. The current analysis includes a longer portion of underway vessel emissions for container vessels arriving and departing Roberts Bank, as well as emissions from a small number of container vessels who may deliver containers to Deltaport and then transit to English Bay to off-load or pick up containers before returning to Deltaport to pick up additional cargo. As such, the underway emissions from marine vessels in the analysis will be higher than those previously presented for the Deltaport Third Berth Project.

Marine vessel emissions that occur during manoeuvring operations to and from berths at the terminals, as well as during the time spent at dockside loading and unloading container cargo, are considered local emissions. Manoeuvring emissions include those derived from assisting tugboats, as well as from the marine vessels themselves.

Cargo handling equipment (CHE) refers to those activities that relate to loading and unloading containers from marine vessels at the terminals. All emissions due to CHE are considered local to Roberts Bank.

For rail and container trucks, emissions were categorized as regional if they occurred along the transport routes in Delta that were previously included in air quality impact assessments for the Deltaport Third Berth Project in 2005, and local if they occurred on-site in the container terminals. Idling and travel by trucks and locomotives on the Deltaport causeway outside the terminal gates were included in local emissions, but transport along Deltaport Way and major trucking routes in Delta (e.g., Highway #17, #99, Ladner Trunk Road, River Road and the South Fraser Perimeter Road) were categorized as regional emissions. The geographic boundary for transport emissions was defined as that which was used for the Deltaport Third Berth Project in order to retain consistency with this previous work.

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Figure 4.1 – Activity Polygons for Regional Emission Estimates

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Figure 4.2 – Activity Polygons for Local Emission Estimates

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4.1.1 DTRRIP Local Annual Emissions

Table 4.1 provides summaries of the emissions of common air contaminants and CO2e for the three operational scenarios defined for the DTRRIP analysis5. Total emissions for each horizon year are shown in Figure 4.3 to Figure 4.8, with the relative contribution of each source group illustrated to show the magnitude of their individual contributions.

The following provides a summary and discussion of the anticipated trends for each contaminant6:

Carbon Monoxide (CO) CO emissions are primarily related to CHE activity. For all three operational scenarios, CO emissions would increase to 2017 for Case 1 and to 2020 for Case 2 and Case 3 scenarios, after which emissions would decline to levels in 2030 that are below existing emission levels in 2010 for Case 1 scenario. However, as is indicated in the monitoring data at Station T39 in Tsawwassen, ambient CO concentrations are far below any ambient air quality objectives. Therefore, the increase in CO emissions to 2017 and 2020 would not be expected to result in any exceedance of the objectives, particularly as CO emissions from other sources in the vicinity (traffic along the ferry terminal causeway and local traffic in Tsawwassen) are important contributors to ambient CO levels in the community.

Nitrogen Oxides (NOx) Both marine vessels and CHE operations are important contributors to NOx emissions at the Deltaport Terminal. NOx emissions are expected to increase to 2017 for Case 1 and Case 2 scenarios as a result of increased shipping and cargo handling activity. NOx emissions are expected to increase to 2020 for Case 3 scenario. However, by 2020, the gradual replacement of older ships with newer vessels to meet more stringent emission standards and the retirement of much of the older CHE fleet at Deltaport would result in some large decreases in NOx emissions by 2025. Additional major decreases would be expected through to 2030 as more of the older marine vessels in the fleet are replaced and the existing RTG cranes at Deltaport reach the end of their useful life between 2020 and 2025. By 2030, total local NOx emissions would be reduced to less than half the existing emissions in 2010 for Case 1and Case 2 and for Case 3, emissions are reduced by about a

third. Existing 1-hour average NO2 concentrations for winds blowing from Deltaport to

5 NH3 emissions are not discussed as these are marginal compared to overall emissions in the LFV 6 Because PM and PM10 emissions are only slightly higher than PM2.5 emissions, the trends for PM2.5 emissions provide an accurate indicator for PM and PM10 emissions as well.

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Station T39 are less than one-third of the ambient air quality objective. The impact of

local emission reductions to 2030 on NO2 concentrations measured in Tsawwassen would be expected to be lower than current observed levels.

Sulphur Dioxide (SO2) Sulphur dioxide emissions are almost exclusively related to emissions from marine vessels. The implementation of the ECA for North America will reduce these emissions for the 2014 horizon year, with additional reductions after 2015 for the other four horizon

years considered in this assessment. As a result, local SO2 emissions due to DTRRIP would decline to 2017 for the all cases and remain fairly constant to 2030. However, the emission levels never reach the levels for existing operations in 2010. .

Volatile Organic Compounds (VOC) Local VOC emissions are largely related to CHE operations, with additional important contributions from marine vessels. For the Case 1 scenario, VOC emissions would reach a peak in 2017 due to increased volumes of cargo shipments. However, as some of the older CHE equipment is replaced with newer, lower emitting equipment by 2020, and by the replacement of the RTG cranes by 2025, overall VOC emissions are expected to decline to below emissions in 2010. Case 2 scenario emissions would reach a peak in 2020 and the decline in emissions would not be as great. VOC emissions in 2030 would be slightly higher than in 2010. Case 3 scenario emissions would also see a decline from peak emissions in 2020, and the total emissions in 2030 would be about 30% higher than in 2010.

Fine Particulate Matter (PM2.5) Local emissions of fine particulate matter are almost entirely related to marine vessels

and CHE operations. Reductions in PM2.5 emissions from marine vessels are related to the implementation of the ECA and gradual fleet turnover to newer vessels meeting more stringent PM emission standards. Reductions in emissions from CHE operations are entirely related to the retirement of older equipment at Deltaport, especially the replacement of older RTG cranes with newer cranes. As a result, the overall trend in

local PM2.5 emissions is not straightforward. For the Case 1 and Case 2 scenario, PM2.5 emissions are relatively consistent to 2020, and decline thereafter to levels below existing emissions by 2025 and 2030. The Case 3 scenario would see emissions peak in 2020 and by 2030 would be slightly lower than existing emission levels.

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Greenhouse Gas Emissions (expressed as CO2e) GHG emissions are primarily related to CHE operations, with increasing contributions from emissions from marine vessels. Local scale GHG emissions for all the Case scenarios reach a peak concentration in 2020 and then level off. Case 3 GHG emissions would be higher than for either Case 1 or Case 2.

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Table 4.1 – DTRRIP Local Annual Emissions, tonnes/year

Case 1 Case 2 Case 3 Activity Year NOx SO2 CO HC NH3 PM PM2.5 CO2e NOx SO2 CO HC NH3 PM PM2.5 CO2e NOx SO2 CO HC NH3 PM PM2.5 CO2e 2010 567.2 428.2 49.5 16.0 0.119 52.9 46.7 30,165 567.2 428.2 49.5 16.0 0.1 52.9 46.7 30,165 567.2 428.2 49.5 16.0 0.1 52.9 46.7 30,165 2014 663.3 200.6 58.8 19.2 0.138 39.3 34.8 35,841 663.3 200.6 58.8 19.2 0.1 39.3 34.8 35,841 780.1 237.0 69.5 22.6 0.2 46.5 41.1 42,337 2017 603.3 19.3 74.9 24.5 0.173 32.9 29.0 45,657 603.3 19.3 74.9 24.5 0.2 32.9 29.0 45,657 603.3 19.3 74.9 24.5 0.2 32.9 29.0 45,657 Ships 2020 403.6 20.8 80.4 26.4 0.183 35.4 31.3 48,947 469.7 23.9 92.4 30.4 0.2 40.7 35.9 56,269 606.7 30.2 117.0 38.5 0.3 51.6 45.5 71,287 2025 238.6 20.0 76.7 25.5 0.173 34.1 30.1 46,689 327.9 27.2 104.3 34.6 0.2 46.4 40.9 63,513 412.8 34.4 131.9 43.8 0.3 58.7 51.8 80,363 2030 242.1 21.0 80.2 26.7 0.180 35.8 31.6 48,791 287.4 24.8 94.5 31.5 0.2 42.1 37.2 57,500 418.5 36.1 137.7 45.8 0.3 61.4 54.2 83,844 2010 456.0 0.5 216.4 47.9 9.3 29.1 28.2 57,884 456.0 0.5 216.4 47.9 9.3 29.1 28.2 57,884 456.0 0.5 216.4 47.9 9.3 29.1 28.2 57,884 2014 470.9 0.6 235.1 52.4 10.5 33.3 32.3 65,360 470.9 0.6 235.1 52.4 10.5 33.3 32.3 65,360 470.9 0.6 235.1 52.4 10.5 33.3 32.3 65,360 2017 559.4 0.8 295.5 66.9 14.3 42.3 41.0 89,196 559.4 0.8 295.5 66.9 14.3 42.3 41.0 89,196 559.4 0.8 295.5 66.9 14.3 42.3 41.0 89,196 CHE 2020 409.5 0.7 228.6 54.9 13.8 36.0 34.9 86,058 521.0 1.0 288.2 72.9 20.1 45.3 44.0 125,093 521.0 1.0 288.2 72.9 20.1 45.3 44.0 125,093 2025 205.8 0.6 94.1 25.5 11.7 13.1 12.7 72,889 266.4 0.8 120.1 36.2 17.4 16.8 16.3 108,632 266.4 0.8 120.1 36.2 17.4 16.8 16.3 108,632

2030 205.8 0.6 94.1 25.5 11.7 13.9 13.5 72,889 266.4 0.8 120.1 36.2 17.4 17.7 17.2 108,632 266.4 0.8 120.1 36.2 17.4 17.7 17.2 108,632

2010 38.6 0.06 27.8 5.2 0.219 1.3 1.2 5,518 38.6 0.06 27.8 5.2 0.219 1.3 1.2 5,518 38.6 0.06 27.8 5.2 0.219 1.3 1.2 5,518

2014 31.6 0.06 24.4 4.6 0.247 0.6 0.6 6,169 31.6 0.06 24.4 4.6 0.247 0.6 0.6 6,169 31.6 0.06 24.4 4.6 0.247 0.6 0.6 6,169

2017 38.6 0.09 37.5 6.3 0.339 0.8 0.7 8,395 38.6 0.09 37.5 6.3 0.339 0.8 0.7 8,395 38.6 0.09 37.5 6.3 0.339 0.8 0.7 8,395 Vehicles 2020 38.1 0.09 37.6 6.3 0.339 0.8 0.7 8,303 47.6 0.11 47.0 7.9 0.424 1.0 0.9 10,378 47.6 0.11 47.0 7.9 0.424 1.0 0.9 10,378

2025 37.5 0.09 36.4 6.2 0.339 0.8 0.7 8,242 46.8 0.11 45.5 7.7 0.424 1.0 0.9 10,302 46.8 0.11 45.5 7.7 0.424 1.0 0.9 10,302

2030 37.3 0.09 36.0 6.2 0.339 0.8 0.7 8,213 46.6 0.11 45.0 7.7 0.424 1.0 0.9 10,267 46.6 0.11 45.0 7.7 0.424 1.0 0.9 10,267 2010 22.5 0.23 13.0 3.1 0.005 0.5 0.5 2,743 22.5 0.23 13.0 3.1 0.005 0.5 0.5 2,743 22.5 0.23 13.0 3.1 0.005 0.5 0.5 2,743 2014 24.1 0.03 7.6 2.3 0.006 0.6 0.6 3,452 24.1 0.03 7.6 2.3 0.006 0.6 0.6 3,452 24.1 0.03 7.6 2.3 0.006 0.6 0.6 3,452 2017 27.5 0.04 7.0 2.1 0.008 0.6 0.5 4,871 27.5 0.04 7.0 2.1 0.008 0.6 0.5 4,871 27.5 0.04 7.0 2.1 0.008 0.6 0.5 4,871 Rail 2020 27.5 0.04 7.0 2.1 0.008 0.6 0.5 4,871 30.3 0.05 7.8 2.2 0.009 0.6 0.6 5,580 30.3 0.05 7.8 2.2 0.009 0.6 0.6 5,580 2025 21.1 0.04 7.0 1.8 0.008 0.5 0.4 4,871 22.8 0.05 7.8 2.0 0.009 0.5 0.5 5,580 22.8 0.05 7.8 2.0 0.009 0.5 0.5 5,580 2030 21.1 0.04 7.0 1.8 0.008 0.5 0.4 4,871 22.8 0.05 7.8 2.0 0.009 0.5 0.5 5,580 22.8 0.05 7.8 2.0 0.009 0.5 0.5 5,580

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Figure 4.3 – Estimated CO Emissions for Existing and Future Operational Scenarios

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Figure 4.4 – Estimated NOx Emissions for Existing and Future Scenarios

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Figure 4.5 – Estimated SO2 Emissions for Existing and Future Scenarios

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Figure 4.6 – Estimated VOC Emissions for Existing and Future Scenarios

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Figure 4.7 – Estimated PM2.5 Emissions for Existing and Future Scenarios

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Figure 4.8 – Estimated CO2e Emissions for Existing and Future Scenarios

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4.1.2 DTRRIP Regional Annual Emissions

Table 4.2 provide summaries of the emissions of common air contaminants and CO2e for the three operational scenarios defined for the DTRRIP analysis. Total emissions for each horizon year are shown in Figure 4.9 to Figure 4.14, with the relative contribution of each source group illustrated to show the magnitude of their individual contributions.

The following provides a summary and discussion of the anticipated trends for each contaminant7:

Carbon Monoxide (CO) For horizon years 2010, 2014, 2017 and 2020, regional DTRRIP CO emissions are still dominated by CHE operations, although marine vessels and on-road vehicles also contribute substantial amounts. However, the contribution from CHE operations in 2025 and 2030 declines, in large part due to the anticipated retirement of the existing RTG cranes after 2020. For the Case 1 scenario, CO emissions peak in 2017, and decline thereafter to levels slightly below those in 2010. For the Case 2 scenario, CO emissions reach a peak in 2020 due to higher cargo volumes, and decline thereafter, although the emissions remain somewhat above those in 2010. Case 3 emissions follow a similar trend to those for Case 2, but the overall emissions are higher than for Case 2 in the period after 2020, and are approximately 20% higher than in 2010.

Nitrogen Oxides (NOx) Regional DTRRIP NOx emissions are dominated by emissions from marine vessels and CHE operations. The gradual replacement of older vessels with newer vessels that meet more stringent emission standards is the primary driver for changes in regional NOx emissions. NOx emissions for all three operating scenarios are expected to remain similar to 2010 levels until 2020, and decline thereafter to levels below those in 2010. Differences between the three scenarios are largely due to differences in estimated ship emissions.

Sulphur Dioxide (SO2) Regional DTRRIP SO2 emissions are virtually all related to marine vessel operations. These emissions are expected to decline with the implementation of the ECA in 2012 and further reductions in fuel sulphur levels in 2015. All three emission scenarios are

7 Because PM and PM10 emissions are only slightly higher than PM2.5 emissions, the trends for PM2.5 emissions provide an accurate indicator for PM and PM10 emissions as well.

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projected to follow similar trends, with much lower emissions in the later horizon years of 2017 through 2030 than in 2010.

Volatile Organic Compounds (VOC) Regional scale VOC emissions are related to both marine vessel and CHE operations. Emissions for the Case 1 scenario are projected to reach a peak in 2017, thereafter declining to levels slightly above existing operations in 2010. Case 2 and Case 3 VOC emissions are projected to continue to increase until 2020, declining afterward but remaining at levels higher than in 2010. . For all Case scenarios, marine vessels become the dominant source of VOC emissions in 2025 and 2030. The decline in VOC emissions from CHE operations is related to the anticipated replacement of older CHE equipment at Deltaport, particularly the RTGs after 2020.

Fine Particulate Matter (PM2.5) Regional-scale DTRRIP PM2.5 emissions are primarily related to marine vessel operations, followed by important contributions from CHE equipment at Deltaport. On- road vehicles and rail locomotives contribute a relatively small share of overall

emissions. The trend in projected regional-scale PM2.5 emissions shows a slight decrease in emissions to 2014 - 2020, followed by a decline thereafter to levels below existing

emissions. The Case 2 and 3 scenarios project PM2.5 emissions to gradually decrease until 2017, increase in 2020 and then decrease, with 2030 levels being slightly lower than existing levels in 2010. The Case 3 scenario emissions are higher than Case 2 scenario emissions.

Greenhouse Gas Emissions (expressed as CO2e) On a regional scale, GHG emissions from DTRRIP are split between marine vessels, CHE equipment and on-road vehicles, with rail providing a much smaller share of total annual emissions. For all Case scenarios, annual GHG emissions would increase to 2020 and then remain relatively steady.

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Table 4.2 – DTRRIP Regional Annual Emissions, tonnes/year

Case 1 Case 2 Case 3 Activity Year NOx SO2 CO HC NH3 PM PM2.5 CO2e NOx SO2 CO HC NH3 PM PM2.5 CO2e NOx SO2 CO HC NH3 PM PM2.5 CO2e 2010 964.0 673.4 80.2 28.9 0.6 84.6 74.7 44,287 964.0 673.4 80.2 28.9 0.6 84.6 74.7 44,287 964.0 673.4 80.2 28.9 0.6 84.6 74.7 44,287 2014 1080.8 305.9 94.3 34.1 0.6 61.3 54.2 52,152 1080.8 305.9 94.3 34.1 0.6 61.3 54.2 52,152 1266.0 360.1 111.0 40.1 0.7 72.1 63.8 61,402 2017 947.1 32.1 119.0 43.1 0.8 50.5 44.6 65,901 947.1 32.1 119.0 43.1 0.8 50.5 44.6 65,901 947.1 32.1 119.0 43.1 0.8 50.5 44.6 65,901 Ships 2020 605.7 34.3 126.8 46.0 0.8 54.0 47.7 70,271 704.2 39.3 145.3 52.7 1.0 61.9 54.6 80,588 907.2 49.5 183.3 66.4 1.2 78.1 68.9 101,730 2025 349.2 32.7 120.5 43.9 0.8 51.6 45.6 66,773 477.5 44.2 162.6 59.3 1.1 69.7 61.5 90,296 598.8 55.7 204.9 74.6 1.3 87.8 77.6 113,857 2030 352.9 34.2 125.5 45.9 0.8 53.9 47.6 69,591 417.6 40.1 147.3 53.8 1.0 63.3 55.9 81,728 604.5 58.0 213.1 77.7 1.4 91.6 80.9 118,472 2010 456.0 0.5 216.4 47.9 9.3 29.1 28.2 57,884 456.0 0.5 216.4 47.9 9.3 29.1 28.2 57,884 456.0 0.5 216.4 47.9 9.3 29.1 28.2 57,884 2014 470.9 0.6 235.1 52.4 10.5 33.3 32.3 65,360 470.9 0.6 235.1 52.4 10.5 33.3 32.3 65,360 470.9 0.6 235.1 52.4 10.5 33.3 32.3 65,360 2017 559.4 0.8 295.5 66.9 14.3 42.3 41.0 89,196 559.4 0.8 295.5 66.9 14.3 42.3 41.0 89,196 559.4 0.8 295.5 66.9 14.3 42.3 41.0 89,196 CHE 2020 409.5 0.7 228.6 54.9 13.8 36.0 34.9 86,058 521.0 1.0 288.2 72.9 20.1 45.3 44.0 125,093 521.0 1.0 288.2 72.9 20.1 45.3 44.0 125,093 2025 205.8 0.6 94.1 25.5 11.7 13.1 12.7 72,889 266.4 0.8 120.1 36.2 17.4 16.8 16.3 108,632 266.4 0.8 120.1 36.2 17.4 16.8 16.3 108,632 2030 205.8 0.6 94.1 25.5 11.7 13.9 13.5 72,889 266.4 0.8 120.1 36.2 17.4 17.7 17.2 108,632 266.4 0.8 120.1 36.2 17.4 17.7 17.2 108,632 2010 108.2 0.2 110.6 12.1 0.9 2.6 2.5 19,735 108.2 0.2 110.6 12.1 0.9 2.6 2.5 19,735 108.2 0.2 110.6 12.1 0.9 2.6 2.5 19,735 2014 57.7 0.2 93.1 9.8 1.1 1.1 1.1 22,022 57.7 0.2 93.1 9.8 1.1 1.1 1.1 22,022 57.7 0.2 93.1 9.8 1.1 1.1 1.1 22,022 2017 55.2 0.3 153.8 13.4 1.5 1.2 1.1 29,994 55.2 0.3 153.8 13.4 1.5 1.2 1.1 29,994 55.2 0.3 153.8 13.4 1.5 1.2 1.1 29,994 Vehicles 2020 52.5 0.3 154.3 13.5 1.5 1.2 1.2 29,573 65.6 0.4 192.9 16.8 1.8 1.5 1.4 36,966 65.6 0.4 192.9 16.8 1.8 1.5 1.4 36,966 2025 49.2 0.3 147.7 12.9 1.5 1.2 1.2 29,279 61.5 0.4 184.6 16.1 1.8 1.5 1.4 36,599 61.5 0.4 184.6 16.1 1.8 1.5 1.4 36,599 2030 47.9 0.3 145.6 12.8 1.5 1.2 1.2 29,143 59.9 0.4 182.0 16.0 1.8 1.5 1.4 36,429 59.9 0.4 182.0 16.0 1.8 1.5 1.4 36,429 2010 52.7 0.4 27.3 6.1 0.009 1.3 1.3 5,296 52.7 0.4 27.3 6.1 0.009 1.3 1.3 5,296 52.7 0.4 27.3 6.1 0.009 1.3 1.3 5,296 2014 60.9 0.1 21.8 5.3 0.011 1.5 1.4 6,856 60.9 0.1 21.8 5.3 0.011 1.5 1.4 6,856 60.9 0.1 21.8 5.3 0.011 1.5 1.4 6,856 2017 73.5 0.1 19.5 4.6 0.017 1.4 1.4 9,976 73.5 0.1 19.5 4.6 0.017 1.4 1.4 9,976 73.5 0.1 19.5 4.6 0.017 1.4 1.4 9,976 Rail 2020 73.5 0.1 19.5 4.6 0.017 1.4 1.4 9,976 83.9 0.1 22.4 5.2 0.019 1.6 1.5 11,536 83.9 0.1 22.4 5.2 0.019 1.6 1.5 11,536 2025 49.5 0.1 19.5 3.7 0.017 1.0 1.0 9,976 56.0 0.1 22.4 4.1 0.019 1.1 1.1 11,536 56.0 0.1 22.4 4.1 0.019 1.1 1.1 11,536 2030 49.5 0.1 19.5 3.7 0.017 1.0 1.0 9,976 56.0 0.1 22.4 4.1 0.019 1.1 1.1 11,536 56.0 0.1 22.4 4.1 0.019 1.1 1.1 11,536

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Figure 4.9 – Estimated CO Emissions for Existing and Future Operational Scenarios

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Figure 4.10 – Estimated NOx Emissions for Existing and Future Scenarios

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Figure 4.11 – Estimated SO2 Emissions for Existing and Future Scenarios

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Figure 4.12 – Estimated VOC Emissions for Existing and Future Scenarios

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Figure 4.13 – Estimated PM2.5 Emissions for Existing and Future Scenarios

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Figure 4.14 – Estimated CO2e Emissions for Existing and Future Scenarios

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4.2 CONSTRUCTION PHASE EMISSIONS

The effects of DTRRIP construction activities cannot be quantified until a detailed construction plan is developed. As such, explicit effects on air quality during construction were not included in the air quality assessment (SENES, 2012). However, it should be noted that air quality effects associated with construction activities would be temporary and low in magnitude, similar to those that were determined for the Deltaport Third Berth Project. As a result, air emissions from construction have not been included in the assessment of regional trends, and regional-level effects from DTRRIP.

The effects of construction on air quality include sources such as worker travel to construction sites, emissions associated with trucks transporting pre-load material, equipment emissions and dust created during site clearing, pre-loading and overpass construction. In general, these sources have low effect because they have a small contribution to total emissions or can be effectively mitigated by standard best management practices (dust generation during construction). Standard mitigation measures during construction may include:

 watering of exposed soils and haul roads to reduce fugitive dust emissions;  chemical stabilization by applying soil stabilizers and dust suppressants to maintain soil moisture levels in exposed soils;  traffic and speed restrictions on vehicles at the construction site to reduce the amount of dust generated through travel on exposed soils;  minimizing the areas of disturbed soils;  compaction of disturbed soils when not being worked;  wind breaks to reduce wind erosion;  covering steep slopes with netting or mulch to reduce wind erosion;  track-out controls to prevent dirt or mud from being spread by trucks leaving the construction site. These may include: o asphalt paving or gravel at driveway access points; o removal of dirt or mud deposited on paved roads; o limiting load size and covering the loaded trucks when hauling material off-site; o watering or chemical stabilization of loads; o washing or treating loaded haul trucks to remove materials from the exterior of the vehicles prior to leaving the site; and o speed restrictions.

Any residual emission of fugitive dust would be limited in spatial extent. Approximately 60% to 90% of the dust generated by construction activity can be expected to remain below 2 metres above the surface, and would not travel more than a few hundred meters from the source.

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5.0 EMISSION INVENTORY FOR CUMULATIVE EFFECTS ASSESSMENT

 construction-related emissions for the Roberts Bank Rail Corridor  (RBRC);  the proposed Vancouver Airport Fuel Facilities Corporation (VAFFC);  industrial/residential development on Tsawwassen First Nation lands;  changes in traffic emissions due to opening of the SFPR, other than those associated with operations of the Deltaport container terminal, the Westshore coal terminal and the proposed Terminal 2 container terminal.

Local and regional annual emissions from the Deltaport and proposed Terminal 2 container terminals and the Westshore terminal are presented in Sections 5.1 and 5.2, respectively. The increase in fugitive dust emissions from future coal shipments at the Westshore terminal are presented in Section 5.3. A brief discussion of the emissions associated with the proposed VAFFC development is presented in Section 5.4.

5.1 CEA LOCAL ANNUAL EMISSION INVENTORY

Table 5.1 provide summaries of the emissions of common air contaminants and CO2e for the three operational scenarios defined for the CEA analysis. Total emissions for each horizon year are shown in Figure 5.1 to Figure 5.6, with the relative contribution of each source group illustrated to show the magnitude of their individual contributions.

In general, ships and CHE are the dominant sources of the total CEA local emissions.

The following provides a summary and discussion of the anticipated trends for each contaminant:

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Carbon Monoxide (CO) Annual CO emissions for the CEA local scale are dominated by CHE equipment operations in 2010, and remain as the primary source of emissions to 2020. Thereafter, emissions from marine vessels are dominant. Although emissions from on-road vehicles and rail locomotives increase slightly after 2020, the relative magnitude of their emissions remains less important than from marine vessels and CHE operations. Overall, CO emissions are projected to increase for all three scenarios over existing emissions in 2010. However, the increase is largest for the Case 3 scenario.

Nitrogen Oxides (NOx) Local CEA NOx emissions are dominated by marine vessel operations. Although CHE operations also contribute to overall emissions, those contributions decline after 2020 such that the relative significance of marine vessel emissions increases. Nevertheless, total CEA NOx emissions in the LSA are projected to decrease after 2020 as compared with emissions in 2010, with the largest decreases being projected for the Case 1 scenario and the smallest decreases for the Case 3 scenario.

Sulphur Dioxide (SO2) Similar to the SO2 emissions for DTRRIP, local CEA SO2 emissions are almost entirely related to marine vessel operations. Total annual emissions for all three operational scenarios are projected to decrease after 2010 due to the implementation of the provisions

for lower sulphur fuels under the North American ECA agreement. SO2 emissions are projected to reach a minimum in 2017 and increase thereafter for all three scenarios, total annual emissions would remain well below existing emission levels in 2010.

Volatile Organic Compounds (VOC) Annual CEA emissions of VOC at the local scale are currently dominated by CHE operations. The relative magnitude of CHE equipment emissions is projected to decrease after 2020 due to replacement of older equipment with newer equipment that meets more stringent emission standards. As a result, the relative importance of VOC emissions from marine vessels is projected to increase over time. Overall VOC emissions are projected to increase above existing levels in 2010, with the largest increases occurring for the Case 3 scenario.

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Fine Particulate Matter (PM2.5) Annual CEA PM2.5 emissions at the local scale are primarily related to marine vessel operations, followed by important contributions from CHE equipment at Deltaport. On- road vehicles and rail locomotives contribute a relatively small share of overall

emissions. The trend in projected regional-scale PM2.5 emissions shows a variable rate of emissions for the Case 1 scenario, with a slight decrease in emissions to 2014 and 2017, followed by slight increases from existing levels for 2020 and beyond. The Case 2

scenario projects PM2.5 emissions to decrease in 2014 and 2017 to below existing emission levels, with an increase afterward from 2020 to 2030. The Case 3 scenario

differs from Case 2 in that PM2.5 emissions would reach a higher peak levels in 2020 and beyond. Shipping emissions in Cases 2 and 3 for 2030 are higher than 2010 levels. CHE is a less dominant source of emissions in 2025 and 2030 as the facilities move to replacing existing equipment with electric or Tier 4 engines.

Greenhouse Gas Emissions (expressed as CO2e) On a local scale, GHG emissions from CEA are split between marine vessels and CHE equipment, with on-road vehicles and rail providing a much smaller share of total annual emissions. For the Case 1 scenario, GHG emissions continue to rise throughout all of the horizon years and would reach more than double the existing levels by 2030. This trend is consistent for Case 2 and Case 3, however the increases are more notable for Case 2 and Case 3, with Case 3 having the highest emissions. Marine vessels also comprise a larger portion of the emissions for Case 3 than for Case 1 or Case 2.

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Table 5.1 – CEA Local Annual Emissions, tonnes/year

Case 1 Case 2 Case 3 Activity Year NOx SO2 CO HC NH3 PM PM2.5 CO2e NOx SO2 CO HC NH3 PM PM2.5 CO2e NOx SO2 CO HC NH3 PM PM2.5 CO2e 2010 947.7 671.4 80.4 26.7 0.167 86.4 76.3 48,963 947.7 671.4 80.4 26.7 0.167 86.4 76.3 48,963 947.7 671.4 80.4 26.7 0.167 86.4 76.3 48,963 2014 1050.7 294.8 90.2 30.1 0.188 60.9 53.8 54,944 1050.7 294.8 90.2 30.1 0.188 60.9 53.8 54,944 1167.5 331.2 100.9 33.5 0.212 68.0 60.1 61,440 2017 932.9 28.9 110.1 36.7 0.228 49.4 43.6 67,053 932.9 28.9 110.1 36.7 0.228 49.4 43.6 67,053 932.9 28.9 110.1 36.7 0.228 49.4 43.6 67,053 Ships 2020 799.7 40.9 155.9 52.0 0.325 69.8 61.7 94,978 741.8 37.7 143.5 47.9 0.298 64.4 56.8 87,422 938.2 47.3 180.4 60.1 0.379 80.7 71.3 109,960 2025 598.1 50.1 189.6 63.6 0.391 85.4 75.4 115,461 644.5 53.6 203.2 68.1 0.421 91.5 80.8 123,789 816.4 68.1 258.6 86.4 0.541 116.1 102.5 157,547 2030 596.7 52.0 196.2 66.0 0.403 88.6 78.2 119,461 687.2 59.4 224.7 75.5 0.465 101.3 89.5 136,887 949.4 82.1 311.1 104.2 0.650 139.9 123.6 189,572 2010 462.2 0.9 226.5 49.1 9.3 29.6 28.7 59,892 462.2 0.9 226.5 49.1 9.3 29.6 28.7 59,892 462.2 0.9 226.5 49.1 9.3 29.6 28.7 59,892 2014 477.1 1.0 245.3 53.6 10.5 33.9 32.8 67,392 477.1 1.0 245.3 53.6 10.5 33.9 32.8 67,392 477.1 1.0 245.3 53.6 10.5 33.9 32.8 67,392 2017 566.3 1.2 306.9 68.2 14.4 42.9 41.6 91,472 566.3 1.2 306.9 68.2 14.4 42.9 41.6 91,472 566.3 1.2 306.9 68.2 14.4 42.9 41.6 91,472 CHE 2020 427.7 1.3 244.1 61.3 17.1 37.0 35.9 108,769 533.5 1.5 302.2 76.7 21.6 46.1 44.7 136,791 533.5 1.5 302.2 76.7 21.6 46.1 44.7 136,791 2025 237.4 1.4 114.7 38.1 18.8 14.7 14.3 119,788 292.9 1.6 139.3 46.4 22.9 18.2 17.6 145,619 292.9 1.6 139.3 46.4 22.9 18.2 17.6 145,619 2030 237.4 1.4 114.7 38.1 18.8 15.6 15.1 119,788 303.7 1.7 142.3 51.5 26.3 19.7 19.1 166,545 303.7 1.7 142.3 51.5 26.3 19.7 19.1 166,545 2010 38.8 0.1 30.9 5.4 0.244 1.3 1.2 5,626 38.8 0.1 30.9 5.4 0.244 1.3 1.2 5,626 38.8 0.1 30.9 5.4 0.244 1.3 1.2 5,626 2014 31.7 0.1 26.9 4.8 0.272 0.6 0.6 6,272 31.7 0.1 26.9 4.8 0.272 0.6 0.6 6,272 31.7 0.1 26.9 4.8 0.272 0.6 0.6 6,272 2017 38.8 0.1 41.0 6.5 0.367 0.8 0.7 8,511 38.8 0.1 41.0 6.5 0.367 0.8 0.7 8,511 38.8 0.1 41.0 6.5 0.367 0.8 0.7 8,511 Vehicles 2020 55.7 0.1 58.8 9.4 0.525 1.1 1.1 12,226 55.7 0.1 58.8 9.4 0.525 1.1 1.1 12,226 55.7 0.1 58.8 9.4 0.525 1.1 1.1 12,226 2025 75.1 0.2 77.1 12.6 0.713 1.6 1.4 16,606 76.1 0.2 78.0 12.7 0.721 1.6 1.5 16,812 76.1 0.2 78.0 12.7 0.721 1.6 1.5 16,812 2030 74.7 0.2 76.2 12.5 0.713 1.6 1.4 16,545 93.3 0.2 94.2 15.6 0.882 1.9 1.8 20,651 93.3 0.2 94.2 15.6 0.882 1.9 1.8 20,651 2010 52.1 0.5 29.4 7.0 0.010 1.3 1.2 5,888 52.1 0.5 29.4 7.0 0.010 1.3 1.2 5,888 52.1 0.5 29.4 7.0 0.010 1.3 1.2 5,888 2014 51.4 0.1 16.5 4.8 0.011 1.2 1.2 6,597 51.4 0.1 16.5 4.8 0.011 1.2 1.2 6,597 51.4 0.1 16.5 4.8 0.011 1.2 1.2 6,597 2017 52.0 0.1 13.2 4.0 0.013 1.1 1.0 8,016 52.0 0.1 13.2 4.0 0.013 1.1 1.0 8,016 52.0 0.1 13.2 4.0 0.013 1.1 1.0 8,016 Rail 2020 73.9 0.1 18.7 5.8 0.019 1.5 1.5 11,265 73.9 0.1 18.7 5.8 0.019 1.5 1.5 11,265 73.9 0.1 18.7 5.8 0.019 1.5 1.5 11,265 2025 63.1 0.1 21.0 5.5 0.022 1.4 1.3 13,392 61.4 0.1 20.2 5.4 0.021 1.3 1.3 12,683 61.4 0.1 20.2 5.4 0.021 1.3 1.3 12,683 2030 63.1 0.1 21.0 5.5 0.022 1.4 1.3 13,392 66.6 0.1 22.5 5.7 0.025 1.4 1.4 14,811 66.6 0.1 22.5 5.7 0.025 1.4 1.4 14,811

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Figure 5.1 – Estimated CO Emissions for Existing and Future Operational Scenarios

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Figure 5.2 – Estimated NOx Emissions for Existing and Future Scenarios

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Figure 5.3 – Estimated SO2 Emissions for Existing and Future Scenarios

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Figure 5.4 – Estimated VOC Emissions for Existing and Future Scenarios

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Figure 5.5 – Estimated PM2.5 Emissions for Existing and Future Scenarios

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Figure 5.6 – Estimated CO2e Emissions for Existing and Future Scenarios

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5.2 CEA REGIONAL ANNUAL EMISSION INVENTORY

Table 5.2 provides summaries of the combustion source emissions of common air contaminants and CO2e for the three operational scenarios defined for the CEA analysis. Total emissions for each horizon year are shown in Figure 5.7 to Figure 5.12, with the relative contribution of each source group illustrated to show the magnitude of their individual contributions. Fugitive coal dust emissions from the Westshore Terminal are discussed in Section 5.3.

In general, as with the CEA local assessment, ships and CHE are the dominant sources of the total CEA regional emissions, however vehicles become more important in the regional inventory.

The following provides a summary and discussion of the anticipated trends for each contaminant:

Carbon Monoxide (CO) Annual CO emissions for the CEA regional scale are dominated by CHE equipment operations in 2010, and remain as the primary source of emissions to 2017. Thereafter, emissions from marine vessels and vehicles become more dominant. Overall, CO emissions are projected to increase for all three scenarios over existing emissions in 2010. However, the increase is largest for the Case 3 scenario, with ships contributing a larger share for the 2020-2030 years.

Nitrogen Oxides (NOx) Regional CEA NOx emissions are dominated by marine vessel and CHE operations. Nevertheless, total CEA NOx emissions in the LSA are projected to decrease in 2017 and beyond as compared with emissions in 2010, with the largest decreases being projected for the Case 1 scenario and the smallest decreases for the Case 3 scenario.

Sulphur Dioxide (SO2) Similar to the SO2 emissions for DTRRIP, regional CEA SO2 emissions are almost entirely related to marine vessel operations. Total annual emissions for all three operational scenarios are projected to decrease after 2010 due to the implementation of the provisions for lower sulphur fuels under the North American ECA agreement.

Although SO2 emissions are projected to reach a minimum in 2017 and increase thereafter for all three scenarios, total annual emissions would remain well below existing emission levels in 2010.

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Volatile Organic Compounds (VOC) Annual CEA emissions of CO at the regional scale are currently split between marine vessel and CHE operations. The relative magnitude of CHE emissions is projected to decrease after 2020 due to replacement of older equipment with newer equipment that meets more stringent emission standards. As a result, the relative importance of VOC emissions from marine vessels to total CEA regional emissions is projected to increase over time. Overall VOC emissions are projected to increase above existing levels in 2010, with the largest increases occurring for the Case 3 scenario.

Fine Particulate Matter (PM2.5) Annual CEA PM2.5 emissions at the regional scale are primarily related to marine vessel operations. On-road vehicles and rail locomotives contribute a relatively small share of

overall emissions. The trend in projected regional-scale PM2.5 emissions shows a variable rate of emissions for the Case 1 scenario, with a slight decrease in emissions to 2017, followed by slight increases from existing levels for the period 2020 and beyond. The

Case 2 scenario projects PM2.5 emissions to decrease to 2017 to below existing emission levels, with an increase afterward for 2020 to 2030. The Case 3 scenario differs from

Case 2 in that PM2.5 emissions would reach higher peak levels in 2020 and beyond. CHE is a less dominant source of emissions in 2025 and 2030 as the facilities move to replacing existing equipment with electric or Tier 4 engines.

Greenhouse Gas Emissions (expressed as CO2e) On a regional scale, GHG emissions from CEA are split between marine vessels and CHE equipment, with on-road vehicles contributing more than at a local scale. For the Case 1 scenario, GHG emissions continue to rise throughout all of the horizon years and are more than double the existing levels by 2030. This trend is consistent for Case 2 and Case 3. However, the increases are more notable for Case 2 and Case 3, with Case 3 having the highest emissions. Marine vessels also comprise a larger portion of the emissions for Case 3 than for Case 1 or Case 2.

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Table 5.2 – CEA Regional Annual Emissions, tonnes/year

Case 1 Case 2 Case 3 Activity Year NOx SO2 CO HC NH3 PM PM2.5 CO2e NOx SO2 CO HC NH3 PM PM2.5 CO2e NOx SO2 CO HC NH3 PM PM2.5 CO2e 2010 1756.9 1177.6 143.7 52.7 0.9 152.5 134.7 79,695 1756.9 1177.6 143.7 52.7 0.9 152.5 134.7 79,695 1756.9 1177.6 143.7 52.7 0.9 152.5 134.7 79,695 2014 1871.8 499.4 158.8 58.3 1.0 104.2 92.2 88,135 1871.8 499.4 158.8 58.3 1.0 104.2 92.2 88,135 2057.0 553.5 175.5 64.3 1.1 115.1 101.7 97,385 2017 1652.2 54.0 196.9 72.4 1.3 85.3 75.3 109,174 1652.2 54.0 196.9 72.4 1.3 85.3 75.3 109,174 1652.2 54.0 196.9 72.4 1.3 85.3 75.3 109,174 Ships 2020 1345.1 75.6 275.8 101.3 1.8 119.3 105.4 152,936 1260.9 70.5 256.7 94.4 1.7 111.2 98.2 142,299 1551.4 85.9 313.7 115.0 2.0 135.5 119.6 174,026 2025 970.6 90.8 330.3 121.6 2.1 143.4 126.6 183,345 1037.4 96.5 351.2 129.1 2.2 152.3 134.5 194,978 1283.2 119.5 435.8 159.9 2.8 188.7 166.6 242,189 2030 959.4 93.6 339.8 125.2 2.2 147.7 130.4 188,657 1088.5 105.4 383.3 141.0 2.4 166.5 147.0 212,943 1462.3 141.2 515.0 188.9 3.3 223.2 197.1 286,429 2010 462.2 0.9 226.5 49.1 9.3 29.6 28.7 59,892 462.2 0.9 226.5 49.1 9.3 29.6 28.7 59,892 462.2 0.9 226.5 49.1 9.3 29.6 28.7 59,892 2014 477.1 1.0 245.3 53.6 10.5 33.9 32.8 67,392 477.1 1.0 245.3 53.6 10.5 33.9 32.8 67,392 477.1 1.0 245.3 53.6 10.5 33.9 32.8 67,392 2017 566.3 1.2 306.9 68.2 14.4 42.9 41.6 91,472 566.3 1.2 306.9 68.2 14.4 42.9 41.6 91,472 566.3 1.2 306.9 68.2 14.4 42.9 41.6 91,472 CHE 2020 427.7 1.3 244.1 61.3 17.1 37.0 35.9 108,769 533.5 1.5 302.2 76.7 21.6 46.1 44.7 136,791 533.5 1.5 302.2 76.7 21.6 46.1 44.7 136,791 2025 237.4 1.4 114.7 38.1 18.8 14.7 14.3 119,788 292.9 1.6 139.3 46.4 22.9 18.2 17.6 145,619 292.9 1.6 139.3 46.4 22.9 18.2 17.6 145,619 2030 237.4 1.4 114.7 38.1 18.8 15.6 15.1 119,788 303.7 1.7 142.3 51.5 26.3 19.7 19.1 166,545 303.7 1.7 142.3 51.5 26.3 19.7 19.1 166,545 2010 109.2 0.2 126.5 13.2 1.1 2.6 2.5 20,253 109.2 0.2 126.5 13.2 1.1 2.6 2.5 20,253 109.2 0.2 126.5 13.2 1.1 2.6 2.5 20,253 2014 58.4 0.3 106.1 10.5 1.2 1.1 1.1 22,520 58.4 0.3 106.1 10.5 1.2 1.1 1.1 22,520 58.4 0.3 106.1 10.5 1.2 1.1 1.1 22,520 2017 56.1 0.3 172.4 14.3 1.6 1.2 1.2 30,556 56.1 0.3 172.4 14.3 1.6 1.2 1.2 30,556 56.1 0.3 172.4 14.3 1.6 1.2 1.2 30,556 Vehicles 2020 77.5 0.5 245.7 20.5 2.3 1.8 1.7 43,695 77.5 0.5 245.7 20.5 2.3 1.8 1.7 43,695 77.5 0.5 245.7 20.5 2.3 1.8 1.7 43,695 2025 99.2 0.7 317.6 26.7 3.1 2.4 2.3 59,152 100.5 0.7 321.3 27.0 3.1 2.5 2.4 59,884 100.5 0.7 321.3 27.0 3.1 2.5 2.4 59,884 2030 96.7 0.7 313.1 26.5 3.1 2.4 2.3 58,858 120.6 0.8 385.9 32.9 3.8 3.1 2.9 73,429 120.6 0.8 385.9 32.9 3.8 3.1 2.9 73,429 2010 152.2 1.2 76.8 16.8 0.024 3.9 3.8 14,350 152.2 1.2 76.8 16.8 0.024 3.9 3.8 14,350 152.2 1.2 76.8 16.8 0.024 3.9 3.8 14,350 2014 152.0 0.1 55.3 13.0 0.027 3.7 3.6 15,910 152.0 0.1 55.3 13.0 0.027 3.7 3.6 15,910 152.0 0.1 55.3 13.0 0.027 3.7 3.6 15,910 2017 151.2 0.2 40.3 9.4 0.032 2.9 2.8 19,030 151.2 0.2 40.3 9.4 0.032 2.9 2.8 19,030 151.2 0.2 40.3 9.4 0.032 2.9 2.8 19,030 Rail 2020 206.6 0.2 54.9 13.0 0.043 3.9 3.8 26,014 206.6 0.2 54.9 13.0 0.043 3.9 3.8 26,014 206.6 0.2 54.9 13.0 0.043 3.9 3.8 26,014 2025 159.4 0.3 63.5 11.7 0.051 3.2 3.1 30,694 152.9 0.2 60.6 11.3 0.049 3.1 3.0 29,134 152.9 0.2 60.6 11.3 0.049 3.1 3.0 29,134 2030 159.4 0.3 63.5 11.7 0.051 3.2 3.1 30,694 172.3 0.3 69.2 12.6 0.056 3.4 3.3 33,815 172.3 0.3 69.2 12.6 0.056 3.4 3.3 33,815

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Figure 5.7 – Estimated CO Emissions for Existing and Future Operational Scenarios

CEA Regional CO -Case1 CEA Regional CO -Case2 CEA Regional CO -Case3 1200 1200 1200

1000 1000 1000

800 800 800 Rail Rail Rail Vehicles 600 Vehicles 600 600 Vehicles CHE CHE CHE Ships Ships Ships

400 400 400

Emissions (tonnes/year) Emissions (tonnes/year) Emissions Emissions (tonnes/year) Emissions 200 200 200

0 0 0 2010 2014 2017 2020 2025 2030 2010 2014 2017 2020 2025 2030 2010 2014 2017 2020 2025 2030

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Figure 5.8 – Estimated NOx Emissions for Existing and Future Scenarios

CEA Regional NOx-Case1 CEA Regional NOx-Case2 CEA Regional NOx-Case3 3000 3000 3000 2800 2800 2800

2600 2600 2600

2400 2400 2400 2200 2200 2200 2000 2000 2000 1800 Rail 1800 Rail 1800 Rail 1600 Vehicles 1600 Vehicles 1600 Vehicles 1400 CHE 1400 CHE 1400 CHE 1200 Ships 1200 Ships 1200 Ships 1000 1000 1000

800 800 800

Emissions (tonnes/year) Emissions (tonnes/year) Emissions Emissions (tonnes/year) Emissions 600 600 600 400 400 400 200 200 200 0 0 0 2010 2014 2017 2020 2025 2030 2010 2014 2017 2020 2025 2030 2010 2014 2017 2020 2025 2030

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Figure 5.9 – Estimated SO2 Emissions for Existing and Future Scenarios

CEA Regional SO2 -Case1 CEA Regional SO2 -Case2 CEA Regional SO2 -Case3 1400 1400 1400

1200 1200 1200

1000 1000 1000

Rail 800 800 Rail 800 Rail Vehicles Vehicles Vehicles 600 CHE 600 CHE 600 CHE Ships Ships Ships

400 400 400

Emissions (tonnes/year) Emissions (tonnes/year) Emissions (tonnes/year) Emissions 200 200 200

0 0 0 2010 2014 2017 2020 2025 2030 2010 2014 2017 2020 2025 2030 2010 2014 2017 2020 2025 2030

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Figure 5.10 – Estimated VOC Emissions for Existing and Future Scenarios

CEA Regional VOC -Case1 CEA Regional VOC -Case2 CEA Regional VOC -Case3 350 350 350

300 300 300

250 250 250

Rail Rail 200 Rail 200 200 Vehicles Vehicles Vehicles CHE 150 CHE 150 CHE 150 Ships Ships Ships

100 100 100

Emissions (tonnes/year) Emissions

Emissions (tonnes/year) Emissions (tonnes/year) Emissions 50 50 50

0 0 0 2010 2014 2017 2020 2025 2030 2010 2014 2017 2020 2025 2030 2010 2014 2017 2020 2025 2030

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Figure 5.11 – Estimated PM2.5 Emissions for Existing and Future Scenarios

CEA Regional PM2.5 -Case1 CEA Regional PM2.5 -Case2 CEA Regional PM2.5 -Case3

250 250 250

200 200 200

150 Rail 150 Rail 150 Rail Vehicles Vehicles Vehicles CHE CHE CHE

100 Ships 100 Ships 100 Ships

Emissions (tonnes/year) Emissions Emissions (tonnes/year) Emissions Emissions (tonnes/year) Emissions 50 50 50

0 0 0 2010 2014 2017 2020 2025 2030 2010 2014 2017 2020 2025 2030 2010 2014 2017 2020 2025 2030

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Figure 5.12 – Estimated CO2e Emissions for Existing and Future Scenarios

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5.3 FUGITIVE COAL DUST EMISSIONS

Apart from the combustion source emission estimates discussed in Section 5.1 above, fugitive coal dust (particulate matter) can be emitted from the Westshore Terminal as a result of material handling operations and wind erosion of exposed coal stockpiles. Detailed calculations of these local emissions have been previously completed as part of upgrades made to the material handling operations at the terminal by Westshore Terminals LP (SENES 2006). The methods used to complete those calculations are presented in the latter report. Estimates of potential future emissions as part of the CEA assessment have been prorated on the basis of the increase in the amount of coal shipped - in millions of tonnes per year (mtpa) of coal handled. Consistent with the calculations made in 2006, it is assumed that fugitive emissions due to wind erosion of the stockpiles do not change as a result of increased coal throughput at the terminal because the area of exposed coal storage piles would not change. Only the emissions that are directly related to coal handling operations would increase with increased coal throughput. Table 5.3 lists the estimated fugitive PM, PM10 and PM2.5 emissions associated with each of the six horizon years. Total annual emissions are provided both with and without the emissions due to wind erosion to better illustrate the change in estimated emissions with increased coal shipments. Figure 5.13 depicts the trend in emission projections.

The data indicate that the largest increase in emissions between 2010 and 2025/2030 would be for the coarser PM size fraction, with a total increase in PM emissions of 56.6 tonnes per year compared with 20.21 tonnes per year of PM10 emissions and 7.51 tonnes per year of PM2.5 emissions. These increases represent a 31.9% increase in total fugitive dust PM emissions, a

29.1% increase in total fugitive dust PM10 emissions and a 28.3% increase in total fugitive PM2.5 emissions.

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Table 5.3 – Estimated Fugitive Coal Dust Emissions from the Westshore Terminal

Annual Coal Throughput (mtpa)

24.7 25 28 31 35 35 Fugitive Dust Source Annual Emissions (tonnes per year) PM 2010 2014 2017 2020 2025 2030 Stockpile Wind Erosion 41.81 41.81 41.81 41.81 41.81 41.81 Railcar Unloading 3.84 3.89 4.36 4.83 5.45 5.45 Transfer Points 87.62 88.68 99.33 109.97 124.16 124.16 Stacker/Reclaimer 25.67 25.98 29.10 32.21 36.37 36.37 Bulldozing 15.30 15.49 17.35 19.21 21.68 21.68 Ship Loading 3.21 3.25 3.64 4.03 4.55 4.55 Total 177.46 179.10 195.58 212.05 234.02 234.02 Sub-total (excluding wind erosion) 135.65 137.29 153.77 170.24 192.21 192.21

PM10 Stockpile Wind Erosion 20.91 20.91 20.91 20.91 20.91 20.91 Railcar Unloading 1.83 1.85 2.07 2.29 2.59 2.59 Transfer Points 32.13 32.52 36.42 40.33 45.53 45.53 Stacker/Reclaimer 12.14 12.28 13.76 15.23 17.20 17.20 Bulldozing 0.86 0.87 0.97 1.08 1.22 1.22 Ship Loading 1.51 1.53 1.72 1.90 2.15 2.15 Total 69.38 69.96 75.85 81.74 89.59 89.59 Sub-total (excluding wind erosion) 48.47 49.05 54.94 60.83 68.68 68.68

PM2.5 Stockpile Wind Erosion 8.56 8.56 8.56 8.56 8.56 8.56 Railcar Unloading 0.57 0.58 0.65 0.71 0.81 0.81 Transfer Points 13.14 13.30 14.90 16.50 18.63 18.63 Stacker/Reclaimer 3.81 3.86 4.32 4.78 5.40 5.40 Bulldozing 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.03 0.03 0.03 Ship Loading 0.47 0.48 0.54 0.59 0.67 0.67 Total 26.58 26.80 28.99 31.18 34.09 34.09 Sub-total (excluding wind erosion) 18.02 18.24 20.43 22.62 25.53 25.53

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Figure 5.13 – Trend in Estimated Total Annual Fugitive Dust Emissions from Westshore Terminal

250

200

PM with wind erosion 150 PM without wind erosion PM10 with wind erosion 100 PM10 without wind erosion PM2.5 with wind erosion 50 PM2.5 without wind erosion

Total Annual Emissions (tonnes/year) 0 2010 2014 2017 2020 2025 2030 Horizon Year

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5.4 VAFFC EMISSION INVENTORY

The Vancouver Airport Fuel Facility Corporation’s fuel storage facility would be located on the north shore of the South Arm of the Fraser River, in the City of Richmond. As such, the VAFFC facility would be located within the boundaries of the RSA for the DTRRIP project. The fuel delivery project would provide aviation fuel to the Vancouver International Airport.

Table 5.4 lists the net changes in annual emissions that are expected to result from the development of the fuel delivery project (Hatch 2011). According to the analysis provided by the VAFFC, the net change in emissions would be very minor. There would be an overall decrease in regional emissions of particulate matter (PM10 and PM2.5) and NOx as a result of reductions in emissions from tanker truck deliveries which would offset any increases in emissions from marine vessel deliveries. There would be a small increase in SO2 emissions due to the higher sulphur content of marine fuels compared to fuels used by tanker trucks, but the increase in emissions is negligible compared with the CEA emissions presented in Section 5.2. VOC emissions would increase marginally based on current fuel requirements, and decrease based on projected requirements in 2016. Net VOC emissions are expected to increase by less than 0.5% at the local level and less than 0.1% at the regional level.

Table 5.4 – Summary of Net Emission Changes due to VAFFC

Annual Emissions (tonnes/year) Emission Source PM10 PM2.5 NOx SO2 VOC Present Fuel Requirements Tanker Truck Deliveries -0.12 -0.091 -4.963 -.010 -0.285 Vessel Deliveries 0.021 to 0.032 0.021 to 0.032 0.899 to 1.338 0.033 to 1.04 0.006 to 0.012 Receiving Tanks - - - - 0.384 to 12.0 Total Net Emissions -0.099 to -0.089 -0.07 to -0.06 -4.064 to -3.625 0.023 to 1.03 0.105 to 11.728 % Change in LSAa Emissions -0.02 -0.02 -0.12 to -0.10 0.02 to 0.78 0.00 to 0.29 % Change in RSAb Emissions -0.004 -0.005 to -0.004 -0.033 to -0.030 0.005 to 0.2 0.001 to 0.09 Future 2016 Fuel Requirements Tanker Truck Deliveries -0.241 -0.181 -9.926 -0.02 -0.57 Vessel Deliveries 0.103 to 0.123 0.101 to 0.121 4.352 to 5.190 0.129 to 5.293 0.036 to 0.048 Receiving Tanks - - - - 0.384 to 12.0 Total Net Emissions -0.138 to -0.117 -0.08 to -0.061 -5.574 to -4.736 0.109 to 5.273 -0.15 to 11.478 % Change in LSAa Emissions -0.03 to -0.02 -0.02 -0.16 to -0.14 0.08 to 4.0 -0.00 to 0.29 % Change in RSAb Emissions -0.006 to -0.005 -0.006 to -0.004 -0.046 to -0.039 0.022 to 1.1 -0.001 to 0.088 Notes: a LSA boundaries as defined by VAFFC (Hatch 2011) b RSA boundaries as defined by VAFFC (Hatch 2011)

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6.0 SHORT-TERM LOCAL EMISSIONS ASSESSMENT

Whereas the annual emission summaries provided in Sections 4 and 5 provide a useful measure of overall trends in emission over time, the assessment of air quality impacts in relation to ambient air quality objectives at the local scale require consideration of emissions in terms of daily and hourly emissions. The daily and hourly effects were assessed on an average and maximum basis for all horizon years and contaminants. Assumptions used to calculate the short- term emission inventories are provided in Appendix A.

The assessment of short-term air quality impacts was based on emission inventories derived from a set of assumptions about maximum and average daily and hourly activity at Roberts Bank and along the Deltaport Way causeway, namely:

 For short-term impacts, there was no difference between Case 2 and Case 3. Therefore, results are presented as a comparison of Case 1 to Case 2/3.  More marine vessel activity, including tugboats, occurs with the maximum emissions scenario than with the average emission scenario.  Marine vessel activity NOx emissions are dependent on the age of ships in any horizon year. In general, there is very little difference between average and maximum emissions scenarios for NOx with the exception of 2020 when the maximum emissions daily scenario used a higher emission factor than for the average emissions based on the likelihood of the older age of the ships at berth.  CHE was assumed to operate on a steady basis and there is no difference between the average and maximum emissions scenario. The emissions were calculated by assuming that the emissions were distributed evenly throughout the year.  Rail locomotive activities are steady on a daily basis but vary on an hourly basis. Therefore, the maximum hourly scenario is greater than the average emission scenario.  On-road vehicle activities are assumed to vary on a daily and hourly basis. Therefore, the maximum emission scenario has greater activity than the average emission scenario.

These differences are summarized in Table 6.1.

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Table 6.1 – Assumptions on Daily and Hourly Activities at Roberts Bank Equipment Location Hourly Maximum to Average Daily Maximum to Average Category Ships 2x more ships at berth with max 3x ships at berth with max than than with average, no difference in with average, 3x ships manoeuvring manoeuvring CHE No difference between maximum No difference between maximum and average and average Rail Increased line-haul locomotive Increased line-haul locomotive DTRRIP traffic with max than with average, traffic with max than with average, no difference in switch locomotive no difference in switch locomotive activity activity Vehicles Increased container truck and Increased container truck traffic employee and visitor vehicle with max than with average, no traffic with max than with average difference in employee and visitor vehicles Ships 2x more ships at berth with max 2.5x more ships at berth and than with average, no difference in manoeuvring than with average manoeuvring CHE No difference between maximum No difference between maximum and average and average Rail Increased line-haul locomotive Increased line-haul locomotive CEA traffic with max than with average, traffic with max than with average, no difference in switch locomotive no difference in switch locomotive activity activity Vehicles Increased container truck and Increased container truck traffic employee and visitor vehicle with max than with average, no traffic with max than with average difference in employee and visitor vehicles

As with the annual emission inventory assessment, ammonia is considered an insignificant contaminant and is not discussed further. The particulate matter fractions (PM, PM10, and PM2.5) all show similar trends and the discussion focuses on PM2.5 as an indicator of the particulate matter contaminants. Hourly and daily GHG emissions are presented but not discussed because GHG emissions are not relevant to the determination of local air quality impacts relative to achievement of AAQOs.

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Sections 6.1 and 6.2 provide the discussion of the emission inventories for hourly and daily DTRRIP activity. Sections 6.3 and 6.4 provide a similar discussion of the emission inventories for CEA hourly and daily activities. The anticipated changes in ambient air quality at the Station T39 monitoring site in Tsawwassen are presented in Section 6.5. In addition, air quality impacts for road and rail activity along transportation routes is provided in Section 6.6.

6.1 HOURLY DTRRIP LOCAL EMISSION INVENTORY

The maximum and average hourly emissions are shown in Figure 6.1 and in Table 6.2 and Table 6.3 for the study contaminants. In general, there are no major differences between Case 1 and

Case 2/3. PM2.5, SO2, and NOx are projected to decrease over the study period with the other contaminants increasing over the same time frames.

Carbon Monoxide (CO) Hourly CO emissions for the DTRRIP local scale are primarily the result of ship, CHE, and vehicle activities. Under the maximum hourly emission scenario, emissions are expected to increase until 2017 for Case 1 and to 2020 for Case 2/3, and then decrease until 2030 under all cases. However, emission levels are well below any applicable criteria. In general, the average hourly emissions of CO are less than half of the maximum hourly emissions.

Nitrogen Oxides (NOx) Local average hourly DTRRIP NOx emissions are dominated by ship operations until 2020 when the average hourly ship emission contributions decrease by more than a factor of three. There are no real projected differences between Case 1 and Case 2/3 for NOx with both scenarios showing minor decreases to 2020 and appreciable decreases for 2025 and 2030. In general, the average hourly NOx emissions are approximately half that of the maximum hourly NOx emissions for 2010 to 2017, and marginally smaller than the maximum hourly NOx emissions for 2020 to 2030.

Sulphur Dioxide (SO2) As with the annual cases, local hourly SO2 emissions are almost entirely related to marine vessel operations. Total hourly emissions for all three operational scenarios are projected to decrease after 2010 due to the implementation of the provisions for lower sulphur fuels

under the North American ECA agreement. The maximum hourly SO2 emissions are approximately double the average hourly SO2 emissions.

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Volatile Organic Compounds (VOC) Local hourly emissions of VOCs are primarily related to ship operations with additional contribution from CHE and rail operations. The relative magnitude of CHE equipment emissions is projected to decrease after 2020 due to replacement of older equipment with newer equipment that meets more stringent emission standards. As a result, the relative importance of VOC emissions from marine vessels is projected to increase over time. Overall, maximum hourly VOC emissions are projected to be within approximately 20% of existing 2010 levels throughout the study period with some increase to 2017 for Case 1, to 2020 for Case 2/3, and a slight drop for all cases until 2030. Average VOC emissions are marginally lower than maximum VOC emissions.

Fine Particulate Matter (PM2.5) Maximum hourly DTRRIP PM2.5 emissions at the local scale are primarily related to marine vessel operations and are also a function of fuel sulphur content. On-road vehicles and rail locomotives contribute a relatively small share of overall emissions. The

trend in projected local-scale PM2.5 maximum emissions shows a substantial decrease in emissions to approximately 50% of the existing 2010 emissions by 2017. The trend in

projected local-scale average PM2.5 emissions shows a gradual decrease in emissions to approximately 60% of the existing 2010 emissions by 2025. Maximum hourly emissions are approximately double the average hourly emissions in 2010, but in later years the difference is less notable and the maximum hourly emission level is within about 20% of the average emission level.

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Table 6.2 – Maximum Hourly DTRRIP Emissions, kg/hour

Case 1 Case 2/3 Activity Activity Year NOx SO2 CO HC NH3 PM PM2.5 CO2e Year NOx SO2 CO HC NH3 PM PM2.5 CO2e 2010 386.3 244.0 31.8 11.7 0.244 32.3 28.5 16,975 2010 386.3 244.0 31.8 11.7 0.244 32.3 28.5 16,975 2014 386.3 92.5 31.8 11.7 0.244 20.0 17.7 16,975 2014 386.3 92.5 31.8 11.7 0.244 20.0 17.7 16,975 2017 348.8 8.5 31.8 11.7 0.244 13.3 11.7 16,975 2017 348.8 8.5 31.8 11.7 0.244 13.3 11.7 16,975 Ships Ships 2020 348.8 8.5 31.8 11.7 0.244 13.3 11.7 16,975 2020 348.8 8.5 31.8 11.7 0.244 13.3 11.7 16,975 2025 95.2 8.5 31.8 11.7 0.244 13.3 11.7 16,975 2025 95.2 8.5 31.8 11.7 0.244 13.3 11.7 16,975 2030 95.2 8.5 31.8 11.7 0.244 13.3 11.7 16,975 2030 95.2 8.5 31.8 11.7 0.244 13.3 11.7 16,975 2010 52.1 0.1 24.7 5.5 1.1 3.3 3.2 6,608 2010 52.1 0.1 24.7 5.5 1.1 3.3 3.2 6,608 2014 53.8 0.1 26.8 6 1.2 3.8 3.7 7,461 2014 53.8 0.1 26.8 6.0 1.2 3.8 3.7 7,461 2017 63.9 0.1 33.7 7.6 1.6 4.8 4.7 10,182 2017 63.9 0.1 33.7 7.6 1.6 4.8 4.7 10,182 CHE CHE 2020 46.7 0.1 26.1 6.3 1.6 4.1 4 9,824 2020 59.5 0.1 32.9 8.3 2.3 5.2 5.0 14,280 2025 23.5 0.1 10.7 2.9 1.3 1.5 1.5 8,321 2025 30.4 0.1 13.7 4.1 2.0 1.9 1.9 12,401 2030 23.5 0.1 10.7 2.9 1.3 1.6 1.5 8,321 2030 30.4 0.1 13.7 4.1 2.0 2.0 2.0 12,401 2010 25.3 0.04 24.8 3.7 0.204 0.8 0.8 4,135 2010 25.3 0.04 24.8 3.7 0.204 0.8 0.8 4,135 2014 19.2 0.05 27.7 3.5 0.23 0.4 0.3 4,620 2014 19.2 0.05 27.7 3.5 0.230 0.4 0.3 4,620 2017 22.4 0.07 34.4 4.3 0.317 0.5 0.4 6,367 2017 22.4 0.07 34.4 4.3 0.317 0.5 0.4 6,367 Vehicles Vehicles 2020 22.1 0.07 34.6 4.4 0.317 0.5 0.4 6,307 2020 27.5 0.09 43.2 5.4 0.396 0.6 0.5 7,844 2025 21.6 0.07 33.3 4.2 0.317 0.5 0.4 6,243 2025 26.8 0.09 41.6 5.3 0.396 0.6 0.5 7,764 2030 21.4 0.07 32.9 4.2 0.317 0.5 0.4 6,213 2030 26.6 0.09 41.1 5.2 0.396 0.6 0.5 7,727 2010 7.1 0.05 3.6 0.8 0.001 0.2 0.2 635 2010 7.1 0.05 3.6 0.8 0.001 0.2 0.2 635 2014 6.5 0.01 2.3 0.6 0.001 0.2 0.2 635 2014 6.5 0.01 2.3 0.6 0.001 0.2 0.2 635 2017 5.6 0.01 1.5 0.4 0.001 0.1 0.1 635 2017 5.6 0.01 1.5 0.4 0.001 0.1 0.1 635 Rail Rail 2020 5.6 0.01 1.5 0.4 0.001 0.1 0.1 635 2020 5.6 0.01 1.5 0.4 0.001 0.1 0.1 635 2025 4.0 0.01 1.5 0.3 0.001 0.1 0.1 635 2025 4.0 0.01 1.5 0.3 0.001 0.1 0.1 635 2030 4.0 0.01 1.5 0.3 0.001 0.1 0.1 635 2030 4.0 0.01 1.5 0.3 0.001 0.1 0.1 635

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Table 6.3 – Average Hourly DTRRIP Emissions, kg/hour

Case 1 Case 2/3 Activity Activity Year NOx SO2 CO HC NH3 PM PM2.5 CO2e Year NOx SO2 CO HC NH3 PM PM2.5 CO2e 2010 177.7 111.6 15.4 5.4 0.129 14.6 12.9 8,024 2010 177.7 111.6 15.4 5.4 0.129 14.6 12.9 8,024 2014 186.2 44.7 16.0 5.7 0.135 9.5 8.4 8,365 2014 186.2 44.7 16.0 5.7 0.135 9.5 8.4 8,365 2017 171.2 4.2 16.5 5.9 0.139 6.5 5.7 8,594 2017 171.2 4.2 16.5 5.9 0.139 6.5 5.7 8,594 Ships Ships 2020 56.1 4.6 17.9 6.5 0.152 7.1 6.3 9,314 2020 56.1 4.6 17.9 6.5 0.152 7.1 6.3 9,314 2025 62.3 5.2 20.2 7.4 0.172 8.1 7.1 10,498 2025 62.3 5.2 20.2 7.4 0.172 8.1 7.1 10,498 2030 64.6 5.5 21.0 7.7 0.180 8.5 7.5 10,942 2030 64.6 5.5 21.0 7.7 0.180 8.5 7.5 10,942 2010 52.1 0.1 24.7 5.5 1.1 3.3 3.2 6,608 2010 52.1 0.1 24.7 5.5 1.1 3.3 3.2 6,608 2014 53.8 0.1 26.8 6 1.2 3.8 3.7 7,461 2014 53.8 0.1 26.8 6 1.2 3.8 3.7 7,461 2017 63.9 0.1 33.7 7.6 1.6 4.8 4.7 10,182 2017 63.9 0.1 33.7 7.6 1.6 4.8 4.7 10,182 CHE CHE 2020 46.7 0.1 26.1 6.3 1.6 4.1 4 9,824 2020 59.5 0.1 32.9 8.3 2.3 5.2 5 14,280 2025 23.5 0.1 10.7 2.9 1.3 1.5 1.5 8,321 2025 30.4 0.1 13.7 4.1 2 1.9 1.9 12,401 2030 23.5 0.1 10.7 2.9 1.3 1.6 1.5 8,321 2030 30.4 0.1 13.7 4.1 2 2 2 12,401 2010 17.8 0.03 10.6 2.1 0.087 0.6 0.5 2,727 2010 17.8 0.03 10.6 2.1 0.087 0.6 0.5 2,727 2014 13.3 0.03 10.7 2 0.098 0.3 0.2 3,056 2014 13.3 0.03 10.7 2 0.098 0.3 0.2 3,056 2017 15.6 0.04 13.1 2.6 0.135 0.3 0.3 4,212 2017 15.6 0.04 13.1 2.6 0.135 0.3 0.3 4,212 Vehicles Vehicles 2020 15.5 0.04 13.2 2.6 0.136 0.3 0.3 4,212 2020 19.2 0.05 16.4 3.2 0.169 0.4 0.4 5,224 2025 15.2 0.04 12.8 2.6 0.136 0.3 0.3 4,192 2025 18.8 0.05 15.9 3.2 0.169 0.4 0.4 5,199 2030 15 0.04 12.7 2.5 0.136 0.3 0.3 4,182 2030 18.6 0.05 15.8 3.2 0.169 0.4 0.4 5,187 2010 2.6 0.03 1.5 0.4 0.001 0.1 0.1 313 2010 2.6 0.03 1.5 0.4 0.001 0.1 0.1 313 2014 2.8 0.00 0.9 0.3 0.001 0.1 0.1 394 2014 2.8 0.00 0.9 0.3 0.001 0.1 0.1 394 2017 3.1 0.00 0.8 0.2 0.001 0.1 0.1 556 2017 3.1 0.00 0.8 0.2 0.001 0.1 0.1 556 Rail Rail 2020 3.1 0.00 0.8 0.2 0.001 0.1 0.1 556 2020 3.5 0.01 0.9 0.3 0.001 0.1 0.1 637 2025 2.4 0.00 0.8 0.2 0.001 0.1 0.0 556 2025 2.6 0.01 0.9 0.2 0.001 0.1 0.1 637 2030 2.4 0.00 0.8 0.2 0.001 0.1 0.0 556 2030 2.6 0.01 0.9 0.2 0.001 0.1 0.1 637

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Figure 6.1 – Maximum and Average Hourly Emissions, kg/day

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DTRRIP Local SO2 - Case2/3 - Average Hourly 300

250

200

Rail 150 Vehicles CHE

Ships Emissions (kg/hour) Emissions 100

0 2010 2014 2017 2020 2025 2030

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6.2 DAILY DTRRIP LOCAL EMISSION INVENTORY

The maximum daily emissions are shown in Figure 6.2 and in Table 6.4 and Table 6.5 for the study contaminants.

Carbon Monoxide (CO) Maximum daily CO emissions for the DTRRIP local scale are primarily associated with ship and CHE operations, while the average daily CO emissions for the DTRRIP local scale are primarily the result of CHE activities. Overall, maximum and average CO emissions are projected to increase over existing emissions until 2017 and 2020 for Case 1 and Case 2/3, respectively. Thereafter, the maximum and average daily emissions are expected to decrease by 2030 to levels below 2010 for all cases.

Nitrogen Oxides (NOx) Maximum daily local DTRRIP NOx emissions are dominated by ship operations until 2020 and then emissions are associated with ship and CHE. NOx emissions are expected to be less than half of those from 2010 by 2025 and beyond. Local average daily DTRRIP NOx emissions are the result of a combination of ship and CHE operations until 2020 when the average daily ship emissions decrease by up to a factor of three and CHE activities become the dominant source. There are no real projected differences between Case 1 and Case 2/3 for NOx with both scenarios showing minor increases to 2017 and appreciable decreases for 2020 to 2030. In general, the average daily NOx emissions are approximately one third that of the maximum daily NOx emissions for horizon years 2010 to 2017 and approximately half for horizon years 2020 to 2030.

Sulphur Dioxide (SO2) SO2 emissions are almost entirely related to marine vessel operations. Total annual emissions for all three operational scenarios are projected to decrease after 2010 due to the implementation of the provisions for lower sulphur fuels under the North American

ECA agreement. The maximum daily SO2 emissions are approximately five times higher than the average daily SO2 emissions.

Volatile Organic Compounds (VOC) Maximum daily DTRRIP emissions of VOCs at the local scale are currently split between marine vessel and CHE operations. Local average daily emissions of VOCs are primarily related to CHE operations. Overall average and maximum VOC emissions are projected to increase above existing levels in 2010 to 2017 for Case 1 and to 2020 for Case 2/3 and then decrease to slightly below 2010 levels in 2025 and 2030 for all cases.

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Average VOC emissions are approximately 30%-50% lower than maximum VOC emissions.

Fine Particulate Matter (PM2.5) Maximum daily DTRRIP PM2.5 emissions at the local scale are primarily related to marine vessel operations. Average daily DTRRIP PM2.5 emissions at the local scale are primarily related to CHE operations. Both maximum and average daily emissions are also a function of fuel sulphur content. On-road vehicles and rail locomotives contribute a relatively small share of overall emissions. The trend in projected local-scale average

PM2.5 emissions shows a decrease in emissions to less than 65% of the existing 2010 emissions by 2030. Maximum daily emissions are approximately double the average daily emissions for most of the study years.

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Table 6.4 – Maximum Daily DTRRIP Emissions, kg/day

Case 1 Case 2/3 Activity Activity Year NOx SO2 CO HC NH3 PM PM2.5 CO2e Year NOx SO2 CO HC NH3 PM PM2.5 CO2e 2010 5468.2 3668.7 457.3 158.2 1.760 481.0 424.9 266,908 2010 5468.2 3668.7 457.3 158.2 1.760 481.0 424.9 266,908 2014 5468.2 1415.3 457.3 158.2 1.760 300.8 266.0 266,908 2014 5468.2 1415.3 457.3 158.2 1.760 300.8 266.0 266,908 2017 5243.4 120.9 457.3 158.2 1.760 200.9 177.4 266,908 2017 5243.4 120.9 457.3 158.2 1.760 200.9 177.4 266,908 Ships Ships 2020 5322.2 121.6 469.1 160.3 1.839 203.0 179.3 272,411 2020 5322.2 121.6 469.1 160.3 1.839 203.0 179.3 272,411 2025 1490.6 121.6 469.1 160.3 1.839 203.0 179.3 272,411 2025 1490.6 121.6 469.1 160.3 1.839 203.0 179.3 272,411 2030 1490.6 121.6 469.1 160.3 1.839 203.0 179.3 272,411 2030 1490.6 121.6 469.1 160.3 1.839 203.0 179.3 272,411 2010 1249.3 1.5 592.9 131.2 25.4 79.6 77.2 158,586 2010 1249.3 1.5 592.9 131.2 25.4 79.6 77.2 158,586 2014 1290.1 1.6 644.0 143.6 28.7 91.3 88.6 179,068 2014 1290.1 1.6 644.0 143.6 28.7 91.3 88.6 179,068 2017 1532.5 2.1 809.5 183.2 39.2 115.9 112.4 244,372 2017 1532.5 2.1 809.5 183.2 39.2 115.9 112.4 244,372 CHE CHE 2020 1121.9 1.9 626.2 150.3 37.8 98.7 95.7 235,774 2020 1427.4 2.7 789.6 199.8 54.9 124.1 120.4 342,720 2025 563.9 1.6 257.7 69.9 32.0 36.0 34.9 199,696 2025 729.8 2.3 329.1 99.3 47.7 46.0 44.6 297,623 2030 563.9 1.6 257.7 69.9 32.0 38.0 36.9 199,696 2030 729.8 2.3 329.1 99.3 47.7 48.6 47.1 297,623 2010 205.5 0.30 105.4 23.3 0.868 6.7 6.3 31,014 2010 205.5 0.30 105.4 23.3 0.868 6.7 6.3 31,014 2014 153.2 0.34 102.7 21.7 0.980 3.0 2.8 34,777 2014 153.2 0.34 102.7 21.7 0.980 3.0 2.8 34,777 2017 181.4 0.47 124.9 28.5 1.356 3.7 3.5 48,269 2017 181.4 0.47 124.9 28.5 1.356 3.7 3.5 48,269 Vehicles Vehicles 2020 178.0 0.47 125.5 28.7 1.356 3.8 3.5 47,959 2020 221.0 0.59 156.4 35.7 1.689 4.7 4.4 59,541 2025 174.5 0.47 122.1 28.4 1.356 3.8 3.5 47,786 2025 216.5 0.59 152.2 35.2 1.688 4.7 4.4 59,326 2030 173.1 0.47 121.0 28.3 1.356 3.8 3.5 47,704 2030 214.9 0.59 150.8 35.2 1.688 4.7 4.4 59,223 2010 61.7 0.63 35.7 8.6 0.013 1.5 1.4 7,515 2010 61.7 0.63 35.7 8.6 0.013 1.5 1.4 7,515 2014 66.2 0.08 20.9 6.2 0.016 1.6 1.5 9,458 2014 66.2 0.08 20.9 6.2 0.016 1.6 1.5 9,458 2017 75.4 0.11 19.2 5.7 0.022 1.5 1.5 13,345 2017 75.4 0.11 19.2 5.7 0.022 1.5 1.5 13,345 Rail Rail 2020 75.4 0.11 19.2 5.7 0.022 1.5 1.5 13,345 2020 90.7 0.15 23.4 6.5 0.029 1.8 1.8 17,231 2025 57.8 0.11 19.2 5.0 0.022 1.2 1.2 13,345 2025 67.3 0.15 23.4 5.7 0.029 1.4 1.4 17,231 2030 57.8 0.11 19.2 5.0 0.022 1.2 1.2 13,345 2030 67.3 0.15 23.4 5.7 0.029 1.4 1.4 17,231

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Table 6.5 – Average Daily DTRRIP Emissions, kg/day

Case 1 Case 2/3 Activity Activity Year NOx SO2 CO HC NH3 PM PM2.5 CO2e Year NOx SO2 CO HC NH3 PM PM2.5 CO2e 2010 971.3 702.5 87.8 28.1 0.336 87.8 77.5 51,400 2010 971.3 702.5 87.8 28.1 0.336 87.8 77.5 51,400 2014 1018.2 289.7 91.4 29.4 0.350 57.3 50.7 53,481 2014 1018.2 289.7 91.4 29.4 0.350 57.3 50.7 53,481 2017 1008.2 22.9 93.8 30.3 0.360 38.7 34.2 54,876 2017 1008.2 22.9 93.8 30.3 0.360 38.7 34.2 54,876 Ships Ships 2020 351.3 25.3 105.3 33.9 0.416 43.0 38.0 61,098 2020 351.3 25.3 105.3 33.9 0.416 43.0 38.0 61,098 2025 388.3 29.0 117.9 38.6 0.465 49.0 43.3 68,363 2025 388.3 29.0 117.9 38.6 0.465 49.0 43.3 68,363 2030 401.9 30.3 122.5 40.4 0.483 51.2 45.2 71,037 2030 401.9 30.3 122.5 40.4 0.483 51.2 45.2 71,037 2010 1249.3 1.5 592.9 131.2 25.4 79.6 77.2 158,586 2010 1249.3 1.5 592.9 131.2 25.4 79.6 77.2 158,586 2014 1290.1 1.6 644.0 143.6 28.7 91.3 88.6 179,068 2014 1290.1 1.6 644.0 143.6 28.7 91.3 88.6 179,068 2017 1532.5 2.1 809.5 183.2 39.2 115.9 112.4 244,372 2017 1532.5 2.1 809.5 183.2 39.2 115.9 112.4 244,372 CHE CHE 2020 1121.9 1.9 626.2 150.3 37.8 98.7 95.7 235,774 2020 1427.4 2.7 789.6 199.8 54.9 124.1 120.4 342,720 2025 563.9 1.6 257.7 69.9 32.0 36.0 34.9 199,696 2025 729.8 2.3 329.1 99.3 47.7 46.0 44.6 297,623 2030 563.9 1.6 257.7 69.9 32.0 38.0 36.9 199,696 2030 729.8 2.3 329.1 99.3 47.7 48.6 47.1 297,623 2010 148.8 0.23 88.9 17.8 0.732 4.8 4.5 22,792 2010 148.8 0.23 88.9 17.8 0.732 4.8 4.5 22,792 2014 111.3 0.26 90.5 16.7 0.826 2.2 2.0 25,539 2014 111.3 0.26 90.5 16.7 0.826 2.2 2.0 25,539 2017 131.6 0.36 110.9 21.5 1.143 2.7 2.5 35,441 2017 131.6 0.36 110.9 21.5 1.143 2.7 2.5 35,441 Vehicles Vehicles 2020 129.1 0.36 111.4 21.7 1.143 2.7 2.5 35,159 2020 160.3 0.44 138.9 26.9 1.424 3.4 3.2 43,656 2025 126.4 0.36 108.0 21.3 1.143 2.7 2.5 34,988 2025 156.9 0.44 134.7 26.5 1.424 3.4 3.2 43,442 2030 125.4 0.36 106.9 21.3 1.143 2.7 2.5 34,908 2030 155.7 0.44 133.3 26.4 1.423 3.4 3.2 43,342 2010 61.7 0.63 35.7 8.6 0.013 1.5 1.4 7,515 2010 61.7 0.63 35.7 8.6 0.013 1.5 1.4 7,515 2014 66.2 0.08 20.9 6.2 0.016 1.6 1.5 9,458 2014 66.2 0.08 20.9 6.2 0.016 1.6 1.5 9,458 2017 75.4 0.11 19.2 5.7 0.022 1.5 1.5 13,345 2017 75.4 0.11 19.2 5.7 0.022 1.5 1.5 13,345 Rail Rail 2020 75.4 0.11 19.2 5.7 0.022 1.5 1.5 13,345 2020 83.1 0.13 21.3 6.1 0.026 1.7 1.6 15,288 2025 57.8 0.11 19.2 5.0 0.022 1.2 1.2 13,345 2025 62.5 0.13 21.3 5.3 0.026 1.3 1.3 15,288 2030 57.8 0.11 19.2 5.0 0.022 1.2 1.2 13,345 2030 62.5 0.13 21.3 5.3 0.026 1.3 1.3 15,288

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Figure 6.2 – Maximum and Average Daily DTRIPP Emissions, kg/day

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DTRRIP Local NOx - Case1 - Max Daily DTRRIP Local NOx - Case1 - Average Daily 8000 8000

7000 7000

6000 6000

5000 5000

Rail Rail 4000 Vehicles 4000 Vehicles CHE CHE

Ships Ships Emissions (kg/day) Emissions Emissions (kg/day) Emissions 3000 3000

2000 2000

1000 1000

0 0 2010 2014 2017 2020 2025 2030 2010 2014 2017 2020 2025 2030

DTRRIP Local NOx - Case2/3 - Max Daily DTRRIP Local NOx - Case2/3 - Average Daily 8000 8000

7000 7000

6000 6000

5000 5000

Rail Rail 4000 Vehicles 4000 Vehicles CHE CHE

Ships Ships Emissions (kg/day) Emissions Emissions (kg/day) Emissions 3000 3000

2000 2000

1000 1000

0 0 2010 2014 2017 2020 2025 2030 2010 2014 2017 2020 2025 2030

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DTRRIP Local VOC - Case1 - Max Daily DTRRIP Local VOC - Case1 - Average Daily 450 450

400 400

350 350

300 300

250 Rail 250 Rail Vehicles Vehicles 200 CHE 200 CHE

Ships Ships

Emissions (kg/day) Emissions Emissions (kg/day) Emissions 150 150

100 100

50 50

0 0 2010 2014 2017 2020 2025 2030 2010 2014 2017 2020 2025 2030

DTRRIP Local VOC - Case2/3 - Max Daily DTRRIP Local VOC - Case2/3 - Average Daily 450 450

400 400

350 350

300 300

250 Rail 250 Rail Vehicles Vehicles 200 CHE 200 CHE

Ships Ships

Emissions (kg/day) Emissions Emissions (kg/day) Emissions 150 150

100 100

50 50

0 0 2010 2014 2017 2020 2025 2030 2010 2014 2017 2020 2025 2030

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6.3 HOURLY CEA LOCAL EMISSION INVENTORY

The maximum and average hourly emissions are shown in Figure 6.3 and Table 6.7 and Table 6.6 for the common air contaminants.

Carbon Monoxide (CO) Maximum and average hourly CO emissions for the CEA local scale are associated with ship, CHE and vehicle activities. Emissions generally increase under both the maximum and average hourly scenarios but are generally within about 50% of the 2010 horizon year. The average and maximum hourly emissions are within approximately 50% of each other for all horizon years.

Nitrogen Oxides (NOx) Local average and maximum hourly CEA NOx emissions are dominated by ship operations until 2020 when the average hourly ship emission contributions decrease by up to a factor of three. The peak hourly emissions increase in 2020 due to the proposed Terminal 2 becoming active, but in all cases the emissions decrease to well below 2010 levels for 2025 and beyond. .

Sulphur Dioxide (SO2) As discussed previously for all of the scenarios, SO2 emissions are almost entirely related to marine vessel operations. Emissions for Case 1 and Case 2/3 are projected to decrease after 2010 due to the implementation of the provisions for lower sulphur fuels under the

North American ECA agreement. The maximum hourly SO2 emissions are approximately double the average hourly SO2 emissions.

Volatile Organic Compounds (VOC) Ship operations are the highest contributor to the maximum hourly emission scenario, whereas for the average hourly emissions scenario the emissions are associated with ship, CHE, and vehicle activities. VOC emissions increase marginally from 2010 for both maximum and average hourly emissions and for Case 1 and Case 2/3. Average VOC emissions relative to maximum VOC emissions are approximately 30%-40% lower.

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Fine Particulate Matter (PM2.5) Average and maximum hourly CEA PM2.5 emissions at the local scale are primarily related to ship operations and are also a function of fuel sulphur content. On-road vehicles and rail locomotives contribute a relatively small share of overall emissions.

PM2.5 emissions decrease in 2014 to below 2010 levels and then fluctuate within about 30% for the other horizon years. Maximum hourly emissions are approximately double the average hourly emissions for 2010, but are closer to the average hourly emissions for the other horizon years.

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Table 6.6 – Maximum Hourly CEA Emissions, kg/hour

Case 1 Case 2/3 Activity Activity Year NOx SO2 CO HC NH3 PM PM2.5 CO2e Year NOx SO2 CO HC NH3 PM PM2.5 CO2e 2010 451.8 278.0 37.9 13.6 0.261 37.2 32.9 20,467 2010 451.8 278.0 37.9 13.6 0.261 37.2 32.9 20,467 2014 451.8 105.6 37.9 13.6 0.261 23.2 20.6 20,467 2014 451.8 105.6 37.9 13.6 0.261 23.2 20.6 20,467 2017 414.3 9.8 37.9 13.6 0.261 15.6 13.8 20,467 2017 414.3 9.8 37.9 13.6 0.261 15.6 13.8 20,467 Ships Ships 2020 530.8 12.2 48.5 16.8 0.282 20.0 17.7 26,763 2020 530.8 12.2 48.5 16.8 0.282 20.0 17.7 26,763 2025 160.5 12.2 48.5 16.8 0.282 20.0 17.7 26,763 2025 160.5 12.2 48.5 16.8 0.282 20.0 17.7 26,763 2030 160.5 12.2 48.5 16.8 0.282 20.0 17.7 26,763 2030 160.5 12.2 48.5 16.8 0.282 20.0 17.7 26763 2010 52.8 0.1 25.9 5.6 1.1 3.4 3.3 6,837 2010 52.8 0.1 25.9 5.6 1.1 3.4 3.3 6,837 2014 54.5 0.1 28.0 6.1 1.2 3.9 3.7 7,693 2014 54.5 0.1 28.0 6.1 1.2 3.9 3.7 7,693 2017 64.7 0.1 35.0 7.8 1.6 4.9 4.7 10,442 2017 64.7 0.1 35.0 7.8 1.6 4.9 4.7 10,442 CHE CHE 2020 48.8 0.2 27.9 7.0 2.0 4.2 4.1 12,417 2020 60.9 0.2 34.5 8.8 2.5 5.3 5.1 15,615 2025 27.1 0.2 13.1 4.3 2.1 1.7 1.6 13,674 2025 33.4 0.2 15.9 5.3 2.6 2.1 2.0 16,623 2030 27.1 0.2 13.1 4.3 2.1 1.8 1.7 13,674 2030 34.7 0.2 16.2 5.9 3.0 2.2 2.2 19,012 2010 25.6 0.0 28.7 4.0 0.235 0.8 0.8 4,272 2010 25.6 0.0 28.7 4.0 0.235 0.8 0.8 4,272 2014 19.5 0.1 32.1 3.8 0.262 0.4 0.4 4,753 2014 19.5 0.1 32.1 3.8 0.262 0.4 0.4 4,753 2017 23.7 0.1 60.8 5.7 0.526 0.5 0.4 7,233 2017 23.7 0.1 60.8 5.7 0.526 0.5 0.4 7,233 Vehicles Vehicles 2020 32.5 0.1 55.5 6.6 0.502 0.7 0.6 9,348 2020 32.4 0.1 55.4 6.6 0.502 0.7 0.6 9,308 2025 43.4 0.1 72.1 8.7 0.679 0.9 0.9 12,642 2025 43.8 0.1 72.9 8.8 0.686 0.9 0.9 12,759 2030 43.0 0.1 71.1 8.6 0.679 0.9 0.9 12,577 2030 53.5 0.2 87.6 10.7 0.837 1.2 1.1 15,644 2010 16.2 0.1 8.2 1.8 0.002 0.4 0.4 1,394 2010 16.2 0.1 8.2 1.8 0.002 0.4 0.4 1,394 2014 14.9 0.0 5.4 1.3 0.002 0.4 0.3 1,394 2014 14.9 0.0 5.4 1.3 0.002 0.4 0.3 1,394 2017 12.8 0.0 3.4 0.8 0.002 0.2 0.2 1,394 2017 12.8 0.0 3.4 0.8 0.002 0.2 0.2 1,394 Rail Rail 2020 16.2 0.0 4.3 1.1 0.003 0.3 0.3 1,746 2020 16.2 0.0 4.3 1.1 0.003 0.3 0.3 1,746 2025 11.4 0.0 4.3 0.9 0.003 0.2 0.2 1,746 2025 11.4 0.0 4.3 0.9 0.003 0.2 0.2 1,746 2030 11.4 0.0 4.3 0.9 0.003 0.2 0.2 1,746 2030 11.4 0.0 4.3 0.9 0.003 0.2 0.2 1,746

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Table 6.7 – Average Hourly CEA Emissions, kg/hour

Case 1 Case 2/3 Activity Activity Year NOx SO2 CO HC NH3 PM PM2.5 CO2e Year NOx SO2 CO HC NH3 PM PM2.5 CO2e 2010 217.0 128.6 19.4 6.5 0.144 17.2 15.2 10,228 2010 217.0 128.6 19.4 6.5 0.144 17.2 15.2 10,228 2014 225.5 51.3 20.1 6.8 0.150 11.3 10.0 10,569 2014 225.5 51.3 20.1 6.8 0.150 11.3 10.0 10,569 2017 210.6 4.9 20.5 7.0 0.154 7.8 6.9 10,798 2017 210.6 4.9 20.5 7.0 0.154 7.8 6.9 10,798 Ships Ships 2020 97.3 6.1 26.7 8.8 0.183 10.0 8.9 14,199 2020 97.3 6.1 26.7 8.8 0.183 10.0 8.9 14,199 2025 104.6 6.9 29.4 9.8 0.204 11.2 9.9 15,606 2025 104.6 6.9 29.4 9.8 0.204 11.2 9.9 15,606 2030 107.3 7.2 30.3 10.2 0.212 11.7 10.3 16,131 2030 107.3 7.2 30.3 10.2 0.212 11.7 10.3 16,131 2010 52.8 0.1 25.9 5.6 1.1 3.4 3.3 6,837 2010 52.8 0.1 25.9 5.6 1.1 3.4 3.3 6,837 2014 54.5 0.1 28.0 6.1 1.2 3.9 3.7 7,693 2014 54.5 0.1 28.0 6.1 1.2 3.9 3.7 7,693 2017 64.7 0.1 35.0 7.8 1.6 4.9 4.7 10,442 2017 64.7 0.1 35.0 7.8 1.6 4.9 4.7 10,442 CHE CHE 2020 48.8 0.2 27.9 7.0 2.0 4.2 4.1 12,417 2020 60.9 0.2 34.5 8.8 2.5 5.3 5.1 15,615 2025 27.1 0.2 13.1 4.3 2.1 1.7 1.6 13,674 2025 33.4 0.2 15.9 5.3 2.6 2.1 2.0 16,623 2030 27.1 0.2 13.1 4.3 2.1 1.8 1.7 13,674 2030 34.7 0.2 16.2 5.9 3.0 2.2 2.2 19,012 2010 17.9 0.0 11.5 2.2 0.095 0.6 0.5 2,762 2010 17.9 0.0 11.5 2.2 0.095 0.6 0.5 2,762 2014 13.4 0.0 11.8 2.1 0.106 0.3 0.2 3,090 2014 13.4 0.0 11.8 2.1 0.106 0.3 0.2 3,090 2017 15.7 0.0 14.2 2.6 0.144 0.3 0.3 4,250 2017 15.7 0.0 14.2 2.6 0.144 0.3 0.3 4,250 Vehicles Vehicles 2020 22.6 0.1 20.5 3.8 0.208 0.5 0.4 6,180 2020 22.5 0.1 20.5 3.8 0.207 0.5 0.4 6,140 2025 30.4 0.1 27.0 5.2 0.283 0.7 0.6 8,423 2025 30.6 0.1 27.2 5.2 0.286 0.7 0.6 8,487 2030 30.1 0.1 26.7 5.2 0.283 0.7 0.6 8,403 2030 37.5 0.1 33.0 6.4 0.350 0.8 0.8 10,453 2010 6.0 0.1 3.4 0.8 0.001 0.1 0.1 672 2010 6.0 0.1 3.4 0.8 0.001 0.1 0.1 672 2014 5.9 0.0 1.9 0.5 0.001 0.1 0.1 753 2014 5.9 0.0 1.9 0.5 0.001 0.1 0.1 753 2017 5.9 0.0 1.5 0.5 0.002 0.1 0.1 915 2017 5.9 0.0 1.5 0.5 0.002 0.1 0.1 915 Rail Rail 2020 8.4 0.0 2.1 0.7 0.002 0.2 0.2 1,286 2020 8.4 0.0 2.1 0.7 0.002 0.2 0.2 1,286 2025 7.2 0.0 2.4 0.6 0.003 0.2 0.1 1,529 2025 7.0 0.0 2.3 0.6 0.002 0.2 0.1 1,448 2030 7.2 0.0 2.4 0.6 0.003 0.2 0.1 1,529 2030 7.6 0.0 2.6 0.7 0.003 0.2 0.2 1,691

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Figure 6.3 – Maximum and Average Hourly CEA Emissions, kg/hour

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6.4 DAILY CEA EMISSION INVENTORY

The maximum and average daily emissions are shown in Figure 6.4 and Table 6.9 and Table 6.8 for the common air contaminants.

Carbon Monoxide (CO) Average daily CO emissions for the CEA local scale are primarily the result of CHE activities, while the importance of ship emissions increases for the maximum daily scenario. Both average and maximum emission scenarios show peak emissions in 2020 when the proposed Terminal 2 would become operational. Emissions generally decline after 2020 due to implementation of the various controls and regulations. The maximum daily emissions are 1.5 to 2 times those of the average daily emissions. Case 2/3 results in slightly higher emissions than Case 1 under both average and maximum scenarios.

Nitrogen Oxides (NOx) Local maximum daily CEA NOx emissions are dominated by ships, while CHE operations become more notable for the average daily emission scenario. There is an appreciable spike in the maximum emissions for 2020 when the proposed Terminal 2 becomes operational, but by 2025 all emissions are well below the 2010 emission levels due to the anticipated fleet turnover to newer, lower emitting ships and CHE. This spike is also due to the use of a higher emission factor for ships in 2020 than in 2025. In 2020, up to 25% of the ships will still be considered “older” and emitting higher levels of NOx according to predictions detailed in Appendix A. In general, the average daily NOx emissions are less than half that of the maximum daily NOx emissions.

North American ECA agreement. The maximum daily SO2 emissions are up to five times the average daily SO2 emissions.

Volatile Organic Compounds (VOC) Local average daily emissions of VOCs are primarily related to CHE operations while the ships are the primary contributor under the maximum daily scenario. Emissions increase to a peak in 2020 due to the proposed Terminal 2 operations. Thereafter emissions decrease but remain higher than 2010 emissions. Maximum VOC emissions are approximately double average VOC emissions.

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Fine Particulate Matter (PM2.5) Average and maximum PM2.5 emissions are associated primarily with CHE and ship operations. Under the maximum daily emission scenario, ships are a more dominant source than in the average emissions scenario. Emissions decrease from 2010 to 2017 and then increase with the start-up of the proposed Terminal 2 operations in 2020. Maximum emissions are below 2010 levels in all subsequent horizon years. The maximum emissions scenarios are projected to be 2 to 3 times higher than the average daily emission scenario.

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Table 6.8 – Maximum Daily CEA Emissions, kg/day

Case 1 Case 2/3 Activity Activity Year NOx SO2 CO HC NH3 PM PM2.5 CO2e Year NOx SO2 CO HC NH3 PM PM2.5 CO2e 2010 7041.1 4598.4 591.3 202.4 2.114 611.2 540.0 345,440 2010 7041.1 4598.4 591.3 202.4 2.114 611.2 540.0 345,440 2014 7041.1 1769.8 591.3 202.4 2.114 384.3 339.8 345,440 2014 7041.1 1769.8 591.3 202.4 2.114 384.3 339.8 345,440 2017 6794.7 154.3 591.3 202.4 2.114 258.7 228.6 345,440 2017 6794.7 154.3 591.3 202.4 2.114 258.7 228.6 345,440 Ships Ships 2020 12274.7 277.3 1084.1 367.0 4.111 465.9 411.7 628,857 2020 12274.7 277.3 1084.1 367.0 4.111 465.9 411.7 628,857 2025 3537.2 277.3 1084.1 367.0 4.111 465.9 411.7 628,857 2025 3537.2 277.3 1084.1 367.0 4.111 465.9 411.7 628,857 2030 3537.2 277.3 1084.1 367.0 4.111 465.9 411.7 628,857 2030 3537.2 277.3 1084.1 367.0 4.111 465.9 411.7 628,857 2010 1266.2 2.5 620.5 134.4 25.6 81.0 78.6 164,087 2010 1266.2 2.5 620.5 134.4 25.6 81.0 78.6 164,087 2014 1307.2 2.7 672.0 146.9 28.9 92.7 90.0 184,636 2014 1307.2 2.7 672.0 146.9 28.9 92.7 90.0 184,636 2017 1551.6 3.3 840.9 186.9 39.4 117.5 114.0 250,608 2017 1551.6 3.3 840.9 186.9 39.4 117.5 114.0 250,608 CHE CHE 2020 1171.8 3.6 668.8 168.1 46.9 101.4 98.3 297,997 2020 1461.6 4.2 827.9 210.1 59.2 126.3 122.6 374,769 2025 650.5 3.8 314.1 104.4 51.5 40.4 39.2 328,186 2025 802.3 4.3 381.6 127.0 62.9 49.8 48.3 398,956 2030 650.5 3.8 314.1 104.4 51.5 42.7 41.5 328,186 2030 832.2 4.7 389.8 141.2 72.0 53.9 52.4 456,286 2010 206.1 0.3 113.8 23.9 0.937 6.7 6.3 31,312 2010 206.1 0.3 113.8 23.9 0.937 6.7 6.3 31,312 2014 153.8 0.3 112.3 22.3 1.049 3.0 2.8 35,066 2014 153.8 0.3 112.3 22.3 1.049 3.0 2.8 35,066 2017 181.9 0.5 134.7 29.0 1.435 3.7 3.5 48,592 2017 181.9 0.5 134.7 29.0 1.435 3.7 3.5 48,592 Vehicles Vehicles 2020 260.1 0.7 193.9 42.4 2.064 5.5 5.1 70,267 2020 258.6 0.7 193.4 42.2 2.058 5.4 5.1 69,860 2025 349.4 1.0 256.0 57.3 2.810 7.5 7.0 95,914 2025 352.2 1.0 258.6 57.8 2.837 7.6 7.1 96,701 2030 346.7 1.0 253.6 57.2 2.810 7.5 7.0 95,737 2030 431.8 1.2 313.6 71.1 3.481 9.4 8.8 119,182 2010 152.8 1.5 85.2 20.1 0.029 3.7 3.6 17,517 2010 152.8 1.5 85.2 20.1 0.029 3.7 3.6 17,517 2014 140.9 0.2 45.1 13.1 0.030 3.4 3.3 18,074 2014 140.9 0.2 45.1 13.1 0.030 3.4 3.3 18,074 2017 150.1 0.2 38.3 11.4 0.039 3.0 3.0 23,347 2017 150.1 0.2 38.3 11.4 0.039 3.0 3.0 23,347 Rail Rail 2020 210.0 0.3 53.3 16.2 0.054 4.3 4.2 32,248 2020 217.7 0.3 55.4 16.7 0.057 4.4 4.3 34,191 2025 177.6 0.3 59.6 15.4 0.064 3.8 3.7 38,078 2025 177.6 0.3 59.6 15.4 0.064 3.8 3.7 38,078 2030 177.6 0.3 59.6 15.4 0.064 3.8 3.7 38,078 2030 196.6 0.4 67.9 16.6 0.077 4.2 4.0 45,850

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Table 6.9 – Average Daily CEA Emissions, kg/day

Case 1 Case 2/3 Activity Activity Year NOx SO2 CO HC NH3 PM PM2.5 CO2e Year NOx SO2 CO HC NH3 PM PM2.5 CO2e 2010 1744.6 1167.2 152.9 49.8 0.500 152.5 134.8 89,748 2010 1744.6 1167.2 152.9 49.8 0.500 152.5 134.8 89,748 2014 1791.5 466.8 156.5 51.2 0.514 98.7 87.3 91,829 2014 1791.5 466.8 156.5 51.2 0.514 98.7 87.3 91,829 2017 1770.7 39.5 158.9 52.1 0.524 67.3 59.5 93,225 2017 1770.7 39.5 158.9 52.1 0.524 67.3 59.5 93,225 Ships Ships 2020 954.3 67.4 279.7 90.3 1.022 115.3 101.9 162,379 2020 954.3 67.4 279.7 90.3 1.022 115.3 101.9 162,379 2025 1028.2 74.8 304.7 99.7 1.119 127.2 112.4 176,909 2025 1028.2 74.8 304.7 99.7 1.119 127.2 112.4 176,909 2030 1055.5 77.5 314.0 103.2 1.157 131.6 116.3 182,257 2030 1055.5 77.5 314.0 103.2 1.157 131.6 116.3 182,257 2010 1266.2 2.5 620.5 134.4 25.6 81.0 78.6 164,087 2010 1266.2 2.5 620.5 134.4 25.6 81.0 78.6 164,087 2014 1307.2 2.7 672.0 146.9 28.9 92.7 90.0 184,636 2014 1307.2 2.7 672.0 146.9 28.9 92.7 90.0 184,636 2017 1551.6 3.3 840.9 186.9 39.4 117.5 114.0 250,608 2017 1551.6 3.3 840.9 186.9 39.4 117.5 114.0 250,608 CHE CHE 2020 1171.8 3.6 668.8 168.1 46.9 101.4 98.3 297,997 2020 1461.6 4.2 827.9 210.1 59.2 126.3 122.6 374,769 2025 650.5 3.8 314.1 104.4 51.5 40.4 39.2 328,186 2025 802.3 4.3 381.6 127.0 62.9 49.8 48.3 398,956 2030 650.5 3.8 314.1 104.4 51.5 42.7 41.5 328,186 2030 832.2 4.7 389.8 141.2 72.0 53.9 52.4 456,286 2010 149.4 0.2 97.4 18.4 0.801 4.8 4.5 23,090 2010 149.4 0.2 97.4 18.4 0.801 4.8 4.5 23,090 2014 111.9 0.3 100.1 17.2 0.896 2.2 2.1 25,829 2014 111.9 0.3 100.1 17.2 0.896 2.2 2.1 25,829 2017 132.1 0.4 120.7 22.0 1.221 2.7 2.5 35,764 2017 132.1 0.4 120.7 22.0 1.221 2.7 2.5 35,764 Vehicles Vehicles 2020 188.8 0.5 173.3 32.1 1.753 4.0 3.7 51,600 2020 187.7 0.5 173.0 32.0 1.749 3.9 3.7 51,307 2025 253.3 0.7 227.8 43.2 2.383 5.4 5.1 70,317 2025 255.4 0.7 230.2 43.6 2.407 5.5 5.1 70,899 2030 251.3 0.7 225.4 43.1 2.383 5.4 5.1 70,144 2030 312.9 0.9 278.5 53.6 2.950 6.8 6.3 87,305 2010 142.8 1.3 80.5 19.1 0.027 3.5 3.4 16,131 2010 142.8 1.3 80.5 19.1 0.027 3.5 3.4 16,131 2014 140.9 0.2 45.1 13.1 0.030 3.4 3.3 18,074 2014 140.9 0.2 45.1 13.1 0.030 3.4 3.3 18,074 2017 142.5 0.2 36.2 11.0 0.037 2.9 2.8 21,961 2017 142.5 0.2 36.2 11.0 0.037 2.9 2.8 21,961 Rail Rail 2020 202.4 0.3 51.2 15.8 0.052 4.2 4.0 30,862 2020 202.4 0.3 51.2 15.8 0.052 4.2 4.0 30,862 2025 172.9 0.3 57.5 15.1 0.061 3.7 3.6 36,692 2025 168.2 0.3 55.4 14.8 0.058 3.6 3.5 34,748 2030 172.9 0.3 57.5 15.1 0.061 3.7 3.6 36,692 2030 182.4 0.3 61.7 15.7 0.068 3.9 3.8 40,578

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Figure 6.4 – Maximum and Average Daily CEA Emissions, kg/day

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CEA Local NOx-Case2/3 - Average Daily 16000

14000

12000

10000

Rail 8000 Vehicles CHE

Ships

Emissions (kg/day) Emissions 6000

4000

2000

0 2010 2014 2017 2020 2025 2030

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6.5 EMISSIONS ALONG MAJOR ROAD AND RAIL CORRIDORS

The incremental contributions of emissions from container trucks and employee-owned vehicles to ambient concentrations of contaminants beside major roads leading to Roberts Bank were calculated on a kilogram per hour per kilometre travelled basis. Emissions from rail locomotives were similarly estimated for the rail line to Roberts Bank. These emissions were used to estimate air quality impacts within a 200 m distance from the road and rail corridors.

The roadside impacts were calculated for average and maximum hourly averaged traffic scenarios along either Deltaport Way and Highway #17 in 2010 and the South Fraser Perimeter Road (SFPR) for 2014 to 2030. As such, the emission estimates are representative of average and maximum emissions that may occur between the marine terminals and Highway #99, because on-road vehicle traffic splits into several other routes beyond the intersection of SFPR and Highway #9. For the rail corridor, emissions were very conservatively evaluated for a maximum of five trains per hour to and from the marine terminals: two container trains for DTRRIP and three for the Westshore as part of the CEA assessment.

6.5.1 DTRRIP Roadside Emissions

Roadside emissions were calculated based on assumptions about the maximum number of container trucks and employee-owned vehicles that are likely to be using a particular stretch of roadway in a given hour. All traffic was assumed to be on the same roadway, so the emissions may be most representative of emissions along Highway #17 to Highway #99 in 2010 and the SFPR between Highway #99 and Roberts Bank for horizon years 2014 to 2030.

Table 6.10 lists the estimated emission rates (in kg/hr-km) for the average hour and peak hour traffic levels assumed to occur along a kilometre of roadway.

CO Emissions The CO emission rates would increase by about 28% between 2010 and 2020 for the average hour traffic Case 1 scenario and up to about 80% for the peak hour traffic Case 2/3 scenarios. Thereafter, CO emissions would decline to 2030. However, peak hour traffic emission in 2030 for the Case 2/3 scenarios could be almost 4 times the emission rates for the Case 1 scenario.

NOx Emissions NOx emissions for all scenarios are highest in 2010, declining steadily throughout the horizon years to 2030. By 2030, the NOx emissions for the average hour traffic scenario

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in Case 1 would have declined by 87%, while the emissions for the peak hour traffic scenario in Case 2/3 would have declined by 79%.

SO2 Emissions SO2 emissions are very low in all horizon years, but increase steadily with assumptions about increase traffic levels between 2010 and 2030 for all scenarios. Although emissions increase by 50% for the average hour traffic scenario and double for the peak hour traffic scenario, the increases are for very low emission rates to begin with.

PM2.5 Emissions Similar to the NOx emissions, PM2.5 emissions are highest in 2010, and decline in subsequent horizon years to minimum levels in 2020, after which the emission rates are assumed to remain steady to 2030. Peak hour traffic emissions in 2030 for the Case 2/3 scenarios would be twice the average hour traffic Case 1 emission rates, but these would both be less than one-half to one-third the existing emission rates in 2010.

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Table 6.10 – Estimated DTRRIP Roadside Emission Rates

Estimated Emission Rate (kg/hr-km) Average Hour Traffic Peak Hour Traffic Horizon Year Case 1 Case 2/3 Case 1 Case 2/3 CO 2010 1.349 1.349 3.895 3.895 2014 1.465 1.465 4.607 4.607 2017 1.799 1.799 5.746 5.746 2020 1.805 2.257 5.760 7.200 2025 1.723 2.153 5.492 6.865 2030 1.696 2.120 5.407 6.759 NOx 2010 1.516 1.516 2.220 2.220 2014 0.582 0.582 0.953 0.953 2017 0.335 0.335 0.610 0.610 2020 0.286 0.357 0.538 0.673 2025 0.231 0.288 0.442 0.553 2030 0.210 0.262 0.405 0.506

SO2 2010 0.003 0.003 0.006 0.006 2014 0.004 0.004 0.006 0.006 2017 0.005 0.005 0.009 0.009 2020 0.005 0.006 0.009 0.011 2025 0.005 0.006 0.009 0.011 2030 0.005 0.006 0.009 0.011

PM2.5 2010 0.027 0.027 0.039 0.039 2014 0.010 0.010 0.016 0.016 2017 0.009 0.009 0.014 0.014 2020 0.009 0.011 0.015 0.018 2025 0.009 0.011 0.015 0.018 2030 0.009 0.011 0.015 0.018

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6.5.2 DTRRIP Rail Corridor Emissions

The DTRRIP rail corridor emission scenarios assume one container train per hour for the average hour traffic scenario and two trains per hour for the peak hour traffic scenario. Table 6.11 lists estimated emission rates along a one kilometre stretch of the rail corridor for the two scenarios.

CO Emissions CO emissions are highest in 2010 and decline by 2014. After that, emissions are assumed to stay steady to 2030.

NOx Emissions NOx emissions are highest in 2010, and decline in 2014 due to an assumed retirement of older engines. This replacement of older engines may occur in 2014 or later, but the assumption is that newer engines that meet more stringent NOx emission standards will replace older engines in 2020 and 2025. By 2030, the average and peak hour emission rate in 2030 would be about 47% of the emission rate in 2010.

SO2 Emissions SO2 emissions are very low in all horizon years, but are assumed to be highest in 2010. The decline in SO2 emissions from 2014 is assumed to be related to a switch to ultra-low sulphur diesel fuel.

PM2.5 Emissions PM2.5 emissions follow the same pattern of change as for NOx emissions, with the highest emission rates in 2010, a decline in 2014 with additional reductions in 2025 and 2030 due to a combination of equipment fleet turnover and the switch to ultra-low

sulphur diesel in 2014. By 2030, PM2.5 emissions for the average traffic hour scenario would be approximately 36% of the emission rate in 2010, and about 34% of the 2010 emissions for the peak traffic hour scenario.

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Table 6.11 – Estimated DTRRIP Rail Corridor Emission Rates

Estimated Emission Rate (kg/hr-km) Horizon Year Average Hour Traffic

CO NOx SO2 PM2.5 2010 0.523 1.102 0.008 0.028 2014 0.389 1.007 0.001 0.024 2017 0.229 0.839 0.001 0.015 2020 0.229 0.839 0.001 0.015 2025 0.229 0.519 0.001 0.010 2030 0.229 0.519 0.001 0.010 Peak Hour Traffic 2010 1.045 2.205 0.016 0.056 2014 0.778 2.014 0.002 0.047 2017 0.458 1.679 0.002 0.030 2020 0.458 1.679 0.002 0.030 2025 0.458 1.038 0.002 0.019 2030 0.458 1.038 0.002 0.019

6.5.3 CEA Roadside Emission Rates

The assumptions for the CEA roadside emission scenarios mirror those for the DTRRIP roadside emissions, but include the additional container trucks from the proposed Terminal 2 and the additional employee-owned vehicles for the proposed Terminal 2 and the Westshore Terminal. Table 6.12 lists the average hour and peak hour traffic emission rates along a single kilometre of Highway #17 in 2010 or the SFPR roadway in 2014-2030, conservatively assuming that all of the terminal traffic uses this stretch of the roadway.

CO Emissions CO emissions are lowest in 2010 and increase steadily in subsequent horizon years with increasing traffic levels. For the Case 1 average traffic hour scenario, CO emission rates would increase by a factor of 2.4, while the emissions for the Case 2/3 peak traffic hour scenario would increase by a factor of 3.1.

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NOx Emissions NOx emissions are highest in 2010 and decline in subsequent horizon years reaching a minimum in 2017. Although the addition of more container trucks for the proposed Terminal 2 in 2020 increases the NOx emissions from 2017, the increased emissions are still lower than the rate in 2010. By 2030, the peak traffic hour scenario for Case 2/3 would still be 31% lower than the Case 1 average traffic hour scenario in 2010.

SO2 Emissions SO2 emissions are very low for all traffic scenarios in all horizon years. However, emissions do increase in conjunction with increasing traffic levels such that the emission rate in 2030 would be approximately 3.3 times higher than the emission rate in 2010 for the Case 1 average traffic hour scenario, and would increase by a factor 3 for the peak traffic hour scenario.

PM2.5 Emissions For the average traffic hour scenario in Cases 1 and 2/3, PM2.5 emissions are highest in 2010, decline to a minimum in 2017, then increase again in 2020 with the addition of the

proposed Terminal 2 traffic. Although the pattern of change in PM2.5 emissions for the peak traffic hour scenario is similar, the increase in emissions by 2025 raises the emission rate to a level similar to that of the average traffic hour scenario in 2010. However, the peak traffic hour scenario for Case 2/3 in 2030 is slightly lower than the peak traffic hour scenario in 2010.

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Table 6.12 – Estimated CEA Roadside Emission Rates

Estimated Emission Rate (kg/hr-km) Average Hour Traffic Peak Hour Traffic Horizon Year Case 1 Case 2/3 Case 1 Case 2/3 CO 2010 1.547 1.547 4.669 4.669 2014 1.691 1.691 5.488 5.488 2017 2.030 2.030 6.649 6.649 2020 2.889 2.889 9.401 9.401 2025 3.721 3.764 12.062 12.199 2030 3.664 4.512 11.874 14.578 NOx 2010 1.529 1.529 2.267 2.267 2014 0.595 0.595 1.004 1.004 2017 0.345 0.345 0.651 0.651 2020 0.428 0.428 0.829 0.829 2025 0.472 0.478 0.927 0.938 2030 0.430 0.535 0.850 1.053

SO2 2010 0.003 0.003 0.006 0.006 2014 0.004 0.004 0.007 0.007 2017 0.005 0.005 0.009 0.009 2020 0.007 0.007 0.013 0.013 2025 0.010 0.010 0.018 0.018 2030 0.010 0.012 0.018 0.023

PM2.5 2010 0.027 0.027 0.040 0.040 2014 0.010 0.010 0.016 0.016 2017 0.009 0.009 0.015 0.015 2020 0.013 0.013 0.022 0.022 2025 0.018 0.019 0.030 0.030 2030 0.018 0.023 0.030 0.037

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6.5.4 CEA Rail Corridor Emissions

The CEA average traffic hour scenario for rail activity is the same as for the DTRRIP average traffic hour scenario. The CEA peak hour traffic scenario assumes two container trains arriving/departing in the same hour from Deltaport, two additional container trains from the proposed Terminal 2 in the same hour from 2020 onwards, as well as one coal train from Westshore. This is a hypothetical upper bound estimate of how many trains could actually run in a one kilometre stretch of track along the rail corridor, and provides a large measure of conservatism in the estimate of potential emissions from this activity. Emission rates for the average traffic hour and peak traffic hour activity are listed in Table 6.13.

CO Emissions For the average and peak rail traffic scenario, CO emission rates are highest in 2010, decline slightly in 2014 and again in 2017 and remains steady through all subsequent horizon years.

NOx Emissions NOx emissions for the average rail traffic scenario are highest in 2010, decline about 9% in 2014, and then decline again in 2017 and 2025 due to fleet turnover to newer locomotives. For the peak hour traffic scenario, emission rates are projected to decline from 2010 to 2025. By 2030, NOx emissions are projected to be 47% lower for peak rail traffic than in 2010 even with the additional traffic from the proposed Terminal 2.

SO2 Emissions The SO2 emission rates are low for all horizon years for both the average and peak rail traffic scenarios, but are highest in 2010 and decline in 2014 assuming the implementation of ultra-low sulphur fuel requirements.

PM2.5 Emissions The PM2.5 emission rates follow a similar pattern to that described for NOx. Emission rates are highest in 2010 for the average hour traffic scenario, declining in 2014 and remaining steady before declining again after 2017 and 2025. For the peak hour traffic scenario, emission rates are highest in 2010, decline in 2014 before decreasing again in 2017 and 2025. The emission rate in 2030 is expected to be 35% lower than in 2010.

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Table 6.13 – Estimated CEA Rail Corridor Emission Rates

Estimated Emission Rate (kg/hr-km) Horizon Year Average Hour Traffic

CO NOx SO2 PM2.5 2010 0.523 1.102 0.008 0.028 2014 0.389 1.007 0.001 0.024 2017 0.229 0.839 0.001 0.015 2020 0.229 0.839 0.001 0.015 2025 0.229 0.519 0.001 0.010 2030 0.229 0.519 0.001 0.010 Peak Hour Traffic 2010 2.052 4.328 0.031 0.110 2014 1.528 3.954 0.003 0.093 2017 0.899 3.295 0.003 0.058 2020 0.899 3.295 0.003 0.058 2025 0.899 2.037 0.003 0.038 2030 0.899 2.037 0.003 0.038

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7.0 AMBIENT AIR QUALITY IMPACTS ASSESSMENT

The impact on ambient air quality resulting from the short-term emission estimates presented in Section 6.0 were evaluated based on anticipated concentrations at the location of the T39 air quality monitoring station on English Bluff in Tsawwassen and beside the road and rail corridors leading from Roberts Bank. For the purposes of this screening-level assessment, the determination of ambient air quality concentrations due to emissions at Roberts Bank were based on the observed air quality concentrations at the station as being representative of average emission rates at Roberts Bank in 2010, and increases in average and maximum, hourly and daily emission rates relative to average emissions in 2010. No new dispersion modelling was conducted for this assessment to estimate changes in air quality at Station T39. For changes in air quality beside the road and rail corridors, a previous dispersion modelling analysis conducted for the Deltaport Third Berth Project (SENES 2006) was used to determine the incremental change in concentrations within 200 metres of the road or rail corridor.

7.1 ANTICIPATED CHANGES IN AIR QUALITY AT STATION T39

7.1.1 Source-Receptor Relationships at English Bluff

Because the emission of SO2 at Roberts Bank is almost entirely related to emissions from marine vessels, the relationship between emission rates at Roberts Bank and observed ambient air concentrations at English Bluff provides a suitable indicator compound for estimating the relationship between emissions and observed concentrations over the approximate 5 km distance.

For the purposes of this analysis, only the SO2 emissions from ship manoeuvring and while at berth were considered to be solely responsible for the observed SO2 concentrations at T39 for o winds from the sector 260°-340 . The contribution of SO2 emissions from ships while underway to Roberts Bank does not need to be accounted for explicitly because these emissions would occur over a wider area and their contribution to ambient concentrations at a given point such as T39 would not coincide with emissions from ships closer to Roberts Bank while manoeuvring and at berth. Although some SO2 emissions would also be attributable to the operation of ferries at the Tsawwassen terminal, the B.C. Ferry Corporation uses low sulphur fuel compared with ocean-going vessels that call at Roberts Bank. Consequently, all of the observed SO2 impacts at Station T39 in 2010-2011 were conservatively assumed to be attributable to marine vessels at the Deltaport and Westshore terminals.

The highest observed hourly and daily SO2 concentration at Station T39 occurred on June 22, 3 2010 with a maximum hourly averaged SO2 concentration of 53.5 µg/m and a 24-hour averaged 3 concentration of 7.1 µg/m . Although the peak hourly SO2 concentration coincided with winds

380220 - October 2012 7-1 SENES Consultants Limited Air Quality Assessment Deltaport Terminal, Road and Rail Improvement Project blowing from the Roberts Bank terminals, winds for 22 of the 24 hours on that date did not coincide with the direction from Roberts Bank. Ship activity at the terminals on that date consisted of one arrival, one departure and three ships at berth for all or part of the day. Because of the variability in fuel sulphur content used by different ships, it is difficult to generalise about how representative this activity was of average SO2 emissions from the two terminals.

For the purposes of this assessment, it has been conservatively assumed that the maximum observed SO2 concentrations at Station T39 on this date were representative of average SO2 emissions at Roberts Bank in 2010. By choosing to equate the existing observed maximum concentrations to average activity levels at Roberts Bank, the assessment acknowledges that the short period of available monitoring data may not fully represent the highest concentrations that may occur with greater shipping activity levels or combination of shipping activity and poor dispersion atmospheric conditions.

As determined in Section 6.0 of this report, the average hourly SO2 emission rate for the two terminals was estimated at 128.6 kg/h (see Table 6.7), while the average daily SO2 emission rate was estimated at 1167.2 kg/day (see Table 6.9) for ship manoeuvring and berthing activity.

Using these emission rates and the observed SO2 concentrations listed in Table 2.1 and Table 2.2, the source-receptor relationships for average hourly and daily SO2 emissions are listed in Table 7.1.

Table 7.1 - Source-Receptor Relationship for SO2 Emissions at Roberts Bank Source-Receptor Relationship Emission 3 (µg/m at T39 per 1 kg SO2 emission at Roberts Bank) Scenario 100th Percentile 99th Percentile 98th Percentile Maximum Hourly 0.4153 0.1141 0.0893 Maximum Daily 0.0061 0.0055 0.0051

Because CO and PM2.5 are non-reactive contaminants over the distance between Roberts Bank and the T39 monitoring station, the same relationship was assumed to apply for these two contaminants as well. This is an important considerations because there are other major sources of emissions for these two contaminants between Roberts Bank and T39, including the road traffic on the ferry terminal causeway and traffic on English Bluff in the vicinity of T39, as well as residential and commercial heating emissions. As such, not all of the observed CO and PM2.5 concentrations at English Bluff are attributable to emissions at the marine terminals. In fact, previous air dispersion modelling analysis conducted as part of the Deltaport Third Berth Project determined that the relative contribution of emissions from Roberts Bank to land-based ambient

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3 3 air concentrations is on the order of 2 µg/m for CO emissions and less than 1 µg/m for PM2.5 emissions (SENES 2006). Therefore, it is reasonable to expect that most of the CO and PM2.5 measured at Station T39 is derived from other sources.

The source-receptor relationship for NO2 is somewhat more complicated to estimate than for CO, SO2 and PM2.5 because 90-95% of the NOx emitted from diesel-fueled equipment at Roberts Bank is emitted as NO, and only a portion of this is likely to be transformed to NO2 in transport from Roberts Bank to T39. The approach adopted in this assessment attempts to provide a realistic estimate of NO2 concentrations based on the Janssen method (1998). The Janssen method developed NOx/NO2 ratios based on the study of measured stack plumes of Dutch power plants between 1975 and 1985 (Jansen et al., 1998; De Oliveira and Simonsen, 2003). As part of this study, over 60 air flights measuring concentrations at distances from the source were carried out under widely varying atmospheric conditions. The method has also been found to be consistent with observations made in Victoria for marine diesel ship emissions over a distance of 4 km (James Bay Air Quality Study Team, 2008; SENES, 2009). Theoretical support for the empirically-derived relationship developed by Janssen in 1988 was recently provided by Middleton et al. (2008) who used the NAME III Lagrangian dispersion model as well as the MM5/Models 3/CMAQ modelling system to simulate an idealised point source plume with dispersion and chemistry at the University of Hertfordshire, UK.

The NO to NO2 conversion rates differ with distance from the source, as well as by season and over the course of the day, being higher during warmer conditions in the daytime than for cooler conditions and at night. For the purposes of this assessment, a conversion rate representative of daytime conditions in late springtime was chosen for all estimates of conversion rates. The distance between Roberts Bank and T39 is approximately 5 km and the Janssen method would suggest that about 33% of the NO emitted at Roberts Bank could be converted to NO2 over that distance under springtime and early summer conditions. The conversion rate could be lower during the cooler periods of the year and at night. However, for the purposes of this assessment, it was conservatively assumed that 33% of NO emitted at Roberts Bank is converted to NO2 under all circumstances.

For fugitive coal dust emission from the Westshore Terminal, the source receptor relationships for PM, PM10 and PM2.5 were based on previous dispersion modelling completed in 2003 using the Fugitive Dust Model (SENES 2003). Table 7.2 lists the source-receptor relationships at the location of Station T39 in Tsawwassen. Although total fugitive PM emissions from the coal terminal are higher than total PM10 and PM2.5 emissions, the source-receptor factor is larger for the latter two size fractions than for the PM size fraction because the coarser particles of PM settle out much more quickly than the finer particles in the PM10 and PM2.5 size fractions during

380220 - October 2012 7-3 SENES Consultants Limited Air Quality Assessment Deltaport Terminal, Road and Rail Improvement Project the downwind transport from the coal terminal to English Bluff in Tsawwassen. This means that the same quantity of fugitive dust emitted in the PM10 and PM2.5 size fractions will have a proportionately larger impact on ambient PM10 and PM2.5 concentrations than a similar quantity of PM emissions. The highest factor increase in ambient concentration at Station T39 is for the finest size fraction.

Table 7.2 - Source-Receptor Relationship for Fugitive Coal Dust Emissions at Roberts Bank

Source-Receptor Relationship Emission 3 (µg/m at T39 per 1 kg fugitive coal dust emission at Roberts Bank) Scenario PM PM10 PM2.5 Maximum Daily 0.0044 0.0080 0.0087

7.1.2 DTRRIP Hourly Emission Scenarios

Table 7.3 lists the estimated ambient air concentrations at Station T39 for the changes in emissions at Roberts Bank that would be attributable entirely to changes in emissions at the Deltaport Terminal. The estimates are based only on observed concentrations for winds from the 260o-340o sector. These estimates do not include changes in hourly emissions that would be attributable to other emission sources such as operations at the Westshore Terminal, the future proposed Terminal 2, the Tsawwassen Ferry Terminal, on-road vehicular traffic at the ferry terminal and along roads on English Bluff.

CO Concentrations Table 7.3 indicates that there would be fairly minor variation in CO concentrations at T39 for the six horizon years for the average hourly emission scenario. For the peak hourly emission scenario, CO concentrations would be 5-8 µg/m3 higher than for the average emission scenario at the 100th percentile level, but all concentrations would remain well below the Metro Vancouver AAQO level of 30,000 µg/m3.

NO2 Concentrations Table 7.3 indicates that there would be minor variation in NO2 concentrations at T39 between 2010 and 2017 horizon years for the average emission scenario, but would then be reduced by more than 25 µg/m3 at the 100th percentile level during the period 2020-

2030 due to fleet turnover of ships and CHE. Although the peak NO2 concentrations may 3 be more than 40 µg/m higher than the average emission scenario, all NO2 concentrations would remain well below the Metro Vancouver AAQO of 200 µg/m3.

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SO2 Concentrations Table 7.3 indicates that SO2 concentrations are currently at their peak and will decline by 2014 and again most precipitously after 2017. The peak emission scenario assumes that there is a possibility that existing observations at T39 may not represent the maximum

SO2 levels that could be recorded at T39 with greater ship activity. Nevertheless, the reduction in fuel sulphur content as part of the ECA will reduce observed SO2 concentrations to a fraction of existing levels for winds from Roberts Bank from the 2017

to the 2030 horizon years. All SO2 concentrations remain well below the Metro Vancouver AAQO of 450 µg/m3 for all emissions scenarios and all horizon years.

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Table 7.3 – Estimated DTRRIP Hourly Averaged Concentrations at T39

1-Hour Average Concentrations (µg/m3) at Percentile Level AAQO Average Hourly Activity Peak Hourly Activity Horizon (µg/m3) Year 100th 99th 98th 100th 99th 98th CO - Case 1 2010 797.1 370.3 347.3 810.7 374.0 350.2 2014 798.0 370.5 347.5 812.2 374.5 350.5 2017 802.0 371.6 348.3 817.5 375.9 351.7 30,000 2020 799.5 370.9 347.8 814.4 375.1 351.0 2025 793.9 369.4 346.6 807.5 373.2 349.5 2030 794.2 369.5 346.7 807.4 373.1 349.5 CO - Case 2/3

2010 797.1 370.3 347.3 810.7 374.0 350.2 2014 798.0 370.5 347.5 812.2 374.5 350.5 2017 802.0 371.6 348.3 817.5 375.9 351.7 30,000 2020 803.7 372.1 348.7 820.8 376.8 352.4 2025 796.5 370.1 347.2 812.2 374.4 350.5 2030 796.8 370.2 347.2 812.0 374.4 350.5 NO - Case 1 2 2010 55.3 47.3 42.3 91.7 57.3 50.1 2014 56.3 47.6 42.5 90.9 57.1 49.9 2017 56.0 47.5 42.4 86.8 56.0 49.0 200 2020 34.1 41.5 37.7 83.9 55.2 48.4 2025 31.1 40.7 37.1 37.9 42.5 38.5 2030 31.5 40.8 37.1 37.8 42.5 38.5 NO - Case 2/3 2 2010 55.3 47.3 42.3 91.7 57.3 50.1 2014 56.3 47.6 42.5 90.9 57.1 49.9 2017 56.0 47.5 42.4 86.8 56.0 49.0 200 2020 36.9 42.3 38.3 86.9 56.0 49.0 2025 32.9 41.2 37.4 39.9 43.1 38.9 2030 33.3 41.3 37.5 39.8 43.1 38.9 SO - Case 1/2/3 2 2010 46.4 12.7 10.0 101.4 27.9 21.8 2014 18.6 5.1 4.0 38.5 10.6 8.3 2017 1.8 0.5 0.4 3.6 1.0 0.8 450 2020 1.9 0.5 0.4 3.6 1.0 0.8 2025 2.2 0.6 0.5 3.6 1.0 0.8 2030 2.3 0.6 0.5 3.6 1.0 0.8 Note: Representative of contaminant dispersion from the 260o-340o wind sector

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7.1.3 DTRRIP Daily Emissions Scenarios

Table 7.4 lists the estimated ambient air concentrations at Station T39 for the changes in emissions at Roberts Bank that would be attributable entirely to changes in daily emissions at the Deltaport Terminal. The estimates are based only on observed concentrations for winds from the 260o-340o sector. These estimates do not include changes in emissions that would be attributable to other emission sources such as operations at the Westshore Terminal, the future proposed Terminal 2, the Tsawwassen Ferry Terminal, on-road vehicular traffic at the ferry terminal and along roads on English Bluff.

NO2 Concentrations Table 7.4 indicates that there would be minor variations in NO2 concentrations during the horizon years 2014 and 2017 compared with existing levels in 2010 for the average emission scenario, but that concentrations could be reduced by 2-4 µg/m3 from 2020 to th 2030 at the 100 percentile level. The NO2 concentrations could be approximately 11-12 µg/m3 higher for the peak emission scenario than has been observed to date until 2017.

However, by 2025 and beyond, NO2 concentrations for the peak emission scenario would be comparable to existing levels for the average emission scenario. All concentrations would remain well below the Metro Vancouver AAQO of 200 µg/m3.

SO2 Concentrations Table 7.4 indicates that all SO2 concentrations for the average emission scenario represent a small fraction of the Metro Vancouver AAQO of 125 µg/m3 for all horizon years. Concentrations could have reached as high as one-fifth of the AAQO under the peak emission scenario in 2010, although no such levels were ever recorded at Station T39 for the period June 2010 to May 2011. Therefore, this high concentration is a hypothetical upper-bound limit for potential air quality levels only. With the reduction in

fuel sulphur levels, SO2 concentrations would be reduced to below existing observations after 2014 even for the peak emission scenario.

PM2.5 Concentrations 3 Table 7.4 indicates that PM2.5 concentrations would vary by less than 0.5 µg/m over the future horizon years at the 100th percentile level for the average emission scenario. Concentrations could potentially be about 1.5-2 µg/m3 higher for the peak emission scenario than for the average emission scenario, but would remain at 40% or less of the Metro Vancouver AAQO in future horizon years.

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Table 7.4 – Estimated DTRRIP Daily Averaged Concentrations at T39

24-Hour Average Concentrations (µg/m3) at Percentile Level AAQO Horizon 3 Average Daily Activity Peak Daily Activity (µg/m ) Year 100th 99th 98th 100th 99th 98th

NO2 - Case 1 2010 46.0 38.0 36.0 57.0 47.9 45.4 2014 46.1 38.1 36.1 56.9 47.9 45.4 2017 46.8 38.7 36.7 57.1 48.0 45.5 200 2020 44.2 36.4 34.4 56.3 47.3 44.8 2025 42.9 35.2 33.3 45.7 37.7 35.7 2030 42.9 35.2 33.3 45.7 37.7 35.7 NO - Case 2/3 2 2010 46.0 38.0 36.0 57.0 47.9 45.4 2014 46.1 38.1 36.1 56.9 47.9 45.4 2017 46.8 38.7 36.7 57.1 48.0 45.5 200 2020 45.0 37.1 35.2 57.1 48.1 45.6 2025 43.4 35.6 33.7 46.2 38.2 36.1 2030 43.4 35.7 33.8 46.2 38.2 36.1 SO - Case 1/2/3 2 2010 4.3 3.9 3.6 22.3 20.1 18.8 2014 1.8 1.6 1.5 8.6 7.7 7.3 2017 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.7 0.7 0.6 125 2020 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.8 0.7 0.6 2025 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.8 0.7 0.6 2030 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.8 0.7 0.6 PM - Case 1 2.5 2010 9.1 8.4 7.9 11.2 10.3 9.7 2014 9.0 8.3 7.8 10.3 9.5 8.9 2017 9.1 8.3 7.8 9.9 9.1 8.6 25 2020 9.0 8.2 7.8 9.9 9.0 8.5 2025 8.7 7.9 7.5 9.5 8.7 8.2 2030 8.7 8.0 7.5 9.5 8.7 8.2 PM - Case 2/3 2.5 2010 9.1 8.4 7.9 11.2 10.3 9.7 2014 9.0 8.3 7.8 10.3 9.5 8.9 2017 9.1 8.3 7.8 9.9 9.1 8.6 25 2020 9.1 8.4 7.9 10.0 9.2 8.6 2025 8.7 8.0 7.5 9.6 8.7 8.2 2030 8.7 8.0 7.6 9.6 8.8 8.3 Note: Representative of contaminant dispersion from the 260o-340o wind sector

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7.1.4 CEA Hourly Emission Scenarios

Table 7.5 lists the estimated ambient air concentrations at Station T39 for the changes in emissions at Roberts Bank that would be attributable entirely to changes in hourly emissions at the Deltaport and Westshore terminals in 2014 and 2017, as well as at all three Roberts Bank terminals from 2020 to 2030. The estimates are based only on observed concentrations for winds from the 260o-340o sector. These estimates do not include changes in emissions that would be attributable to other emission sources such as operations at the Tsawwassen Ferry Terminal, on- road vehicular traffic at the ferry terminal and along roads on English Bluff.

The CEA average emission scenario in 2010 is considered to be representative of air quality levels recorded at Station T39 over the period June 2010 to May 2011. As such, the maximum, 99th and 98th percentile concentrations for 2010 are those listed in Table 2.1 for observations at T39.

CO Concentrations Table 7.5 indicates that maximum CO concentrations could be expected to increase by about 7-8 µg/m3 for the average emission scenario to 2017 and decline slightly afterward to 2030. For the peak emission scenario, the CO concentrations could increase by 15-23 µg/m3 to 2025 and decline slightly afterward to 2030. Nevertheless, these would represent negligible fluctuations in CO concentrations in comparison with the Metro Vancouver AAQO of 30,000 µg/m3.

NO2 Concentrations For the average activity scenario, Table 7.5 indicates that maximum NO2 concentrations could increase slightly by about 0.5-1 µg/m3 to 2014, but would subsequently decline to about 20 µg/m3 below existing levels for the average emission scenario. For the peak emission scenario, assuming a hypothetical situation where all ships at berth in 2020 are

older model ships with higher NOx emission rates, the NO2 concentrations could potentially increase to a level approximately double the currently observed concentrations

as representative of average operations at Roberts Bank. Nevertheless, the NO2 th concentrations at the 100 percentile in 2020 would still be comparable to NO2 concentrations observed at T39 in the 2010-2011 monitoring period for emissions from

other wind directions. Therefore, while the NO2 concentrations may increase for winds from Roberts Bank to 2020, the observed maximum NO2 concentrations at T39 for all wind directions may not change much compared to existing levels. After 2020, with the retirement of older model ships and replacement with newer ships, overall maximum

NO2 concentrations would decline below existing levels in 2010, even for the peak

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activity scenario. For both the average and peak activity scenarios, all NO2 concentrations would remain below the Metro Vancouver AAQO of 200 µg/m3 for all horizon years.

SO2 Concentrations Table 7.5 indicates that SO2 concentrations for the peak emission scenario could potentially have produced observed levels at T39 more than double what was actually

recorded in 2010-2011. However, by 2014, maximum SO2 concentrations even for the peak activity scenario in 2014 would be lower than has been observed at Station T39 to

date and all SO2 levels from 2017 to 2030 would represent a negligible fraction of the Metro Vancouver AAQO of 450 µg/m3.

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Table 7.5 – Estimated CEA Hourly Averaged Concentrations at T39

1-Hour Average Concentrations (µg/m3) at Percentile Level AAQO Horizon 3 Average Hourly Activity Peak Hourly Activity (µg/m ) Year 100th 99th 98th 100th 99th 98th CO - Case 1 2010 800.4 371.2 348.0 817.2 375.8 351.6 2014 801.1 371.4 348.1 818.4 376.1 351.9 2017 805.0 372.5 349.0 832.4 380.0 354.9 30,000 2020 807.5 373.1 349.5 831.9 379.9 354.8 2025 805.2 372.5 349.0 832.7 380.1 354.9 2030 805.5 372.6 349.1 832.3 380.0 354.9 CO - Case 2/3

2010 800.4 371.2 348.0 817.2 375.8 351.6 2014 801.1 371.4 348.1 818.4 376.1 351.9 2017 805.0 372.5 349.0 832.4 380.0 354.9 30,000 2020 810.2 373.9 350.1 834.7 380.6 355.4 2025 806.5 372.9 349.3 834.2 380.5 355.3 2030 809.5 373.7 350.0 840.4 382.2 356.6 NO - Case 1 2 2010 62.5 49.3 43.8 104.2 60.8 52.8 2014 63.4 49.6 44.0 103.2 60.5 52.6 2017 63.0 49.4 43.9 99.1 59.4 51.7 200 2020 43.3 44.0 39.7 117.7 64.5 55.7 2025 42.0 43.7 39.4 54.1 47.0 42.0 2030 42.4 43.8 39.5 54.0 47.0 42.0 NO - Case 2/3 2 2010 62.5 49.3 43.8 104.2 60.8 52.8 2014 63.4 49.6 44.0 103.2 60.5 52.6 2017 63.0 49.4 43.9 99.1 59.4 51.7 200 2020 45.3 44.6 40.1 119.7 65.0 56.1 2025 43.0 44.0 39.6 55.2 47.3 42.2 2030 44.9 44.5 40.0 57.0 47.8 42.6 SO - Case 1/2/3 2 2010 53.5 14.7 11.5 115.6 31.7 24.8 2014 21.4 5.9 4.6 43.9 12.1 9.4 2017 2.1 0.6 0.4 4.2 1.1 0.9 450 2020 2.6 0.7 0.6 5.2 1.4 1.1 2025 3.0 0.8 0.6 5.2 1.4 1.1 2030 3.1 0.8 0.7 5.2 1.4 1.1 Note: Representative of contaminant dispersion from the 260o-340o wind sector

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7.1.5 CEA Daily Emission Scenarios

Table 7.6 lists the estimated ambient air concentrations at Station T39 for the changes in emissions at Roberts Bank that would be attributable entirely to changes in daily emissions at the Deltaport and Westshore terminals in 2014 and 2017, as well as at all three Roberts Bank terminals from 2020 to 2030. The estimates are based only on observed concentrations for winds from the 260o-340o sector. These estimates do not include changes in emissions that would be attributable to other emission sources such as operations at the Tsawwassen Ferry Terminal, on- road vehicular traffic at the ferry terminal and along roads on English Bluff.

NO2 Concentrations Table 7.6 indicates that there would be only minor fluctuations in maximum daily averaged NO2 concentrations for the average emission scenario over the six horizon years, and that all concentrations would remain less than one-quarter of the Metro Vancouver AAQO of 200 µg/m3. For a hypothetical situation where all of the ships at berth in 2020 consist of older model vessels with higher NOx emission rates, the peak 3 emission scenario would have NO2 concentrations at about 14-15 µg/m higher than the average emissions scenario, reaching a maximum of 27 µg/m3 above the average scenario in 2020. However, by 2025 when the older ships are likely to have been replaced by 3 newer model ships, ambient NO2 concentrations would return to only about 2-3 µg/m 3 below levels in 2010 and around 9-10 µg/m for the peak emission scenario. All NO2 concentrations would remain well below the Metro Vancouver AAQO of 200 µg/m3 for all horizon years.

SO2 Concentrations Table 7.6 indicates that all SO2 concentrations for the average emission scenario are low, declining to negligible levels for horizon years 2017 to 2030. The hypothetical maximum 3 SO2 concentration of 27.9 µg/m for the peak emission scenario was never actually observed during the 2010-2011 monitoring period. Even under the peak emission scenario, SO2 concentrations for emissions from Roberts Bank would be expected to decline to barely measurable levels in 2020-2030. All projected concentration levels would be well below the Metro Vancouver AAQO of 125 µg/m3 for all horizon years and all emission scenarios.

PM2.5 Concentrations Table 7.6 indicates that changes in maximum ambient levels of PM2.5 would be on the order of <0.5 µg/m3 for the average emission scenario and less than 2 µg/m3 for the peak emission scenario. However, even for the peak emission scenario, all ambient concentrations would remain at 50% or less of the Metro Vancouver AAQO of 25 µg/m3.

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Table 7.6 – Estimated CEA Daily Averaged Concentrations at T39

24-Hour Average Concentrations (µg/m3) at Percentile Level AAQO Horizon 3 Average Daily Activity Peak Daily Activity (µg/m ) Year 100th 99th 98th 100th 99th 98th

NO2 - Case 1 2010 48.1 39.9 37.8 61.0 51.5 48.9 2014 48.2 40.0 37.9 61.0 51.5 48.8 2017 48.8 40.5 38.4 61.0 51.6 48.9 200 2020 46.2 38.2 36.2 73.6 62.9 59.7 2025 45.2 37.3 35.3 51.5 43.0 40.7 2030 45.3 37.4 35.4 51.5 43.0 40.7 NO - Case 2/3 2 2010 48.1 39.9 37.8 61.0 51.5 48.9 2014 48.2 40.0 37.9 61.0 51.5 48.8 2017 48.8 40.5 38.4 61.0 51.6 48.9 200 2020 46.9 38.8 36.8 74.4 63.6 60.4 2025 45.6 37.6 35.6 51.9 43.3 41.0 2030 45.9 37.9 35.9 52.2 43.6 41.3 SO - Case 1/2/3 2 2010 7.1 6.4 6.0 27.9 25.1 23.6 2014 2.8 2.6 2.4 10.7 9.7 9.1 2017 0.3 0.2 0.2 1.0 0.9 0.8 125 2020 0.4 0.4 0.4 1.7 1.5 1.4 2025 0.5 0.4 0.4 1.7 1.5 1.4 2030 0.5 0.4 0.4 1.7 1.5 1.4 PM - Case 1 2.5 2010 9.5 8.7 8.2 12.0 10.9 10.3 2014 9.3 8.5 8.0 10.8 9.9 9.3 2017 9.2 8.5 8.0 10.3 9.4 8.9 25 2020 9.4 8.6 8.1 11.3 10.3 9.7 2025 9.1 8.4 7.9 11.0 10.0 9.4 2030 9.2 8.4 7.9 11.0 10.0 9.4 PM - Case 2/3 2.5 2010 9.5 8.7 8.2 12.0 10.9 10.3 2014 9.3 8.5 8.0 10.8 9.9 9.3 2017 9.2 8.5 8.0 10.3 9.4 8.9 25 2020 9.6 8.8 8.3 11.5 10.5 9.9 2025 9.2 8.4 7.9 11.0 10.1 9.5 2030 9.2 8.5 8.0 11.0 10.1 9.5 Note: Representative of contaminant dispersion from the 260o-340o wind sector

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7.2 CEA FUGITIVE COAL DUST IMPACTS ON AIR QUALITY IN TSAWWASSEN

The impact of fugitive coal dust emissions from operations at the Westshore Terminal were calculated based on average daily emissions from normal operations (i.e., without wind erosion of exposed stockpiles). Although discrete fugitive dust events during periods of high winds may generate more dust emissions than during typical operations on any given day, those emissions cannot be quantified. Furthermore, the Westshore Terminal operator applies water sprays to reduce those emissions, and the higher winds that produce those wind erosion events produce greater dispersion than would otherwise occur under normal circumstances. For the purposes of this assessment, the estimated wind erosion emissions were assumed to be evenly distributed throughout the year, representing average wind erosion rather than discrete high wind erosion events. Using the source-receptor relationships listed in Table 7.2, the projected impact on incremental concentrations of PM, PM10 and PM2.5 are listed in Table 7.7.

The data indicate that the existing maximum daily impact of fugitive coal dust emissions in Tsawwassen is on the order of <4 µg/m3 for PM with wind erosion emissions, and slightly greater than 1.5 µg/m3 for material handling operations alone. The increase in coal throughput from 24.7 mtpa in 2010 to 35 mtpa in 2025/2030 would increase maximum daily PM concentrations by about 1.4 µg/m3 with wind erosion and 0.7 µg/m3 for material handling operations alone.

The potential impact on maximum PM10 concentrations in Tsawwassen is lower than for PM emissions. For existing operations in 2010, the incremental maximum daily PM10 impact in Tsawwassen is estimated at 2.6 µg/m3 with wind erosion and 1.1 µg/m3 without wind erosion emissions. By 2025/2030, the maximum daily impact could increase by less than 1 µg/m3 with the inclusion of wind erosion emissions and less than 0.5 µg/m3 for material handling alone.

This level of increase in ambient concentrations would not be detectable using PM10 sampling equipment as it would fall within the range of sampling uncertainty for this type of equipment.

Similarly, the impact on maximum daily PM2.5 concentrations in Tsawwassen would not be detectable with observational data. The existing incremental maximum daily PM2.5 concentrations increase due to Westshore operations in 2010 is estimated at about 1 µg/m3 at Station T39 (including wind erosion), and about 0.4 µg/m3 for material handling operations alone. These impacts could increase by 0.4 µg/m3 and 0.2 µg/m3 respectively by 2025/2030 with the projected increase in coal throughput to 35 mtpa.

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Table 7.7 - Maximum Projected Incremental Daily Impact of Fugitive Dust Emissions

Horizon Year

2010 2014 2017 2020 2025 2030

Contaminant Annual Coal Throughput (mtpa) 24.7 25 28 31 35 35 Maximum Projected Incremental Concentration (µg/m3) (with wind erosion) PM 3.76 3.80 4.20 4.60 5.12 5.12

PM10 2.57 2.59 2.85 3.11 3.45 3.45

PM2.5 1.06 1.07 1.17 1.28 1.42 1.42 Maximum Projected Incremental Concentration (µg/m3) (material handling operations only) PM 1.63 1.65 1.85 2.05 2.31 2.31

PM10 1.06 1.07 1.20 1.33 1.50 1.50

PM2.5 0.43 0.43 0.49 0.54 0.61 0.61

7.3 ANTICIPATED CHANGES IN AIR QUALITY ALONG ROAD AND RAIL CORRIDORS

The impact of road and rail traffic emissions associated with the marine terminals at Roberts Bank were evaluated in terms of incremental changes in ambient air quality within a distance of 200 m from the road and rail corridors. In order to estimate maximum impacts, it was assumed that all vehicular traffic would flow along one road. Therefore, the results presented are representative of maximum impacts along Deltaport Way and the South Fraser Perimeter Road (SFPR), but would overestimate potential impacts along other roadways once traffic splits are considered beyond the junction of the SFPR and Highway 99. The analysis assumes that all of the traffic (i.e., container trucks and employee-owned vehicles) use one road between Roberts Bank and Highway 99, using Highway 17 in 2010 and the SFPR in subsequent horizon years. This oversimplification of traffic patterns provides a conservative estimate of potential air quality impacts beside the roadway. This is not an issue for rail, as all train traffic is assumed to travel on one rail corridor.

Both road and rail traffic were assessed for an average and a peak activity scenario along a kilometre section of the road and rail corridors. For rail, the average scenario assumed one container train travelling along a 1 km stretch of rail. In reality, for a particular 1 km stretch of rail, there may or may not be a train travelling along that specific stretch in a given hour on an average basis.

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The maximum rail traffic scenario assumes that the rail lines operate at maximum capacity and that in a given hour, a 1 km stretch could see up to two train movements (mainline departures, arrivals and rail switching movements) from DTRRIP, one train from Westshore, and two train movements per hour from the proposed Terminal 2. It is unlikely that this would actually occur, but does provide an indicator of potential air quality impacts due to upper bound emission estimates.

Road traffic modelling was based on a previous modelling assessment completed for the Deltaport Third Berth Project (SENES 2006) using the CAL3QHCR traffic model. The latter analysis was completed using traffic data consistent with the future air quality impacts assessment for the proposed SFPR as part of the Gateway Program.

Consistent with the analysis of roadside emissions completed in 2005, emissions along the rail corridor were not explicitly modelled. Short-term air quality impacts from rail locomotives are difficult to simulate because, at any given location, the emissions occur over a very short time period as the locomotive passes by, unlike roadway emissions where the traffic stream is more- or-less continuous over the period of an hour. For the purposes of this analysis, however, it was assumed that the locomotive emissions over a kilometre of rail line would be evenly distributed over that section for the period of one hour, making the emissions quantitatively analogous to roadway emissions based on the CAL3QHCR model. Therefore, emissions from rail locomotives were estimated as a ratio of emission rates to roadway emissions, consistent with the approach used for the analysis completed in 2005.

Additionally, an estimate is provided for the potential impact of fugitive coal dust from trains delivering coal to the Westshore Terminal at Roberts Bank, based on a monitoring study that was conducted for Environment Canada at Agassiz, BC in 1984/85. The study was conducted at track-side, and was specifically designed to determine the contribution of dusting coal trains to ambient concentrations of particulate matter along the rail corridor.

While both peak and average concentrations are presented in the figures and tables in the following sections, in general, the peak concentrations are discussed in detail because, for all contaminants, the concentrations are well below applicable criteria or indistinguishable from background when using the peak scenarios. Accordingly, the average concentrations would also be below the applicable criteria.

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7.3.1 DTRRIP Roadside Air Quality Impacts

Table 7.8 to Table 7.15 list the estimated incremental 1-hour average ambient air quality impacts beside the roadway for the average hour and peak hour traffic levels along the roadway. In all cases, projected concentrations are highest within 10 m of the roadway, and decrease with increasing distance from the roadway. The data are also presented graphically in Figure 7.1 to Figure 7.4.

CO Concentrations For CO emissions (Table 7.8 and Table 7.9, Figure 7.1), the highest impacts are projected to occur in 2020 for the Case 2/3 peak hour traffic activity scenarios. At 10 m, from the roadway, ambient concentrations are estimated at 1174 µg/m3, declining with distance from the roadway to 127 µg/m3 at 190 m from the roadway. Even if the 98th percentile observed CO concentration of 394 µg/m3 (see Table 2.1) were added as background CO concentration to the incremental impacts, the total ambient air concentration of 1568 µg/m3 would represent approximately 5% of the Metro Vancouver ambient air quality objective of 30,000 µg/m3.

NO2 Concentrations Due to more stringent emission standards for heavy duty diesel-powered vehicles and

fleet turnover, ambient air quality NO2 impacts from container trucks on the roadway are estimated to be highest in 2010, declining in all subsequent years, even with the projected additional traffic levels in 2020 and beyond (Table 7.10 and Table 7.11, Figure 7.2). At 10 m from the roadway, the maximum estimated incremental ambient air quality impact for peak traffic levels in 2010 is 84.6 µg/m3. Even with the addition of the observed 98th 3 percentile NO2 concentration of 46 µg/m at T39 as a measure of background NO2 levels, the total air quality level of 130.6 µg/m3 is still well below the Metro Vancouver ambient air quality objective of 200 µg/m3. With declining emissions in all subsequent years, the AAQO would be achieved at all distances from the roadway.

SO2 Concentrations Table 7.12, Table 7.13 and Figure 7.3 indicate that all estimated 1-hour average ambient 3 air concentrations of SO2 are very low, ranging from 1.0 µg/m for Case 1 at average traffic levels in 2010 (10 m from roadway) to just 3.6 µg/m3 for peak traffic levels in th 3 2030. Even if the 98 percentile SO2 concentration of 7.2 µg/m were added to the

incremental impact from DTRRIP roadway emissions, the total concentration of SO2 would be less than 3% of the Metro Vancouver ambient air quality objective of 450

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µg/m3. At greater distances from the roadway, the small incremental impacts of less than 3 1-2 µg/m would be indistinguishable from background SO2 concentrations.

PM2.5 Concentrations Similar to the NO2 concentrations, the estimated PM2.5 concentrations in Table 7.14, Table 7.15 and Figure 7.4 indicate that concentrations are highest in 2010 and decline in subsequent years, even with increased traffic activity in 2020. The maximum estimated incremental 1-hour average concentration of 7.9 µg/m3 at 10 m from the roadway would be reduced by over 50% to 3.5 µg/m3 in the 2020 to 2030. There are no applicable

ambient air quality objectives for 1-hour average PM2.5 concentrations. However, since 3 measured concentrations of PM2.5 less than 3 µg/m are likely to fall within the ‘noise’ range of monitoring equipment8, all estimated concentrations beyond 30 m from the roadway in the horizon years 2014 and beyond are likely to be indistinguishable from background concentrations.

8 3 For example, studies of collocated continuous PM10 sampling instruments have a reported precision of +2.8 µg/m for hourly averaged PM10 concentrations. Due to the smaller mass of PM2.5 particles, the precision of PM2.5 sampling equipment could be even lower.

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Table 7.8 – Estimated DTRRIP Incremental Average Hour CO Roadside Impacts

1-Hour Average Concentrations (µg/m3)

Distance AAQO Average Hour Traffic Activity 3 (m) (µg/m ) 2010 2014 2017 2020 2025 2030 Case 1 10 220 239 293 294 281 276 30 78 85 104 104 99 98 50 54 59 72 72 69 68 70 43 46 57 57 55 54 90 35 38 47 47 45 44 30,000 110 30 33 40 40 39 38 130 28 30 37 37 35 35 150 26 29 35 35 34 33 170 25 27 34 34 32 32 190 24 26 32 32 30 30 Case 2/3

10 220 239 293 368 351 346 30 78 85 104 130 124 122 50 54 59 72 90 86 85 70 43 46 57 71 68 67 90 35 38 47 59 56 55 30,000 110 30 33 40 50 48 47 130 28 30 37 46 44 43 150 26 29 35 44 42 41 170 25 27 34 42 40 39 190 24 26 32 40 38 38

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Table 7.9 – Estimated DTRRIP Incremental Peak Hour CO Roadside Impacts

1-Hour Average Concentrations (µg/m3)

Distance AAQO Peak Hour Traffic Activity 3 (m) (µg/m ) 2010 2014 2017 2020 2025 2030 Case 1 10 635 751 937 939 895 881 30 225 266 332 333 317 312 50 156 185 230 231 220 217 70 123 146 182 182 174 171 90 102 120 150 150 143 141 30,000 110 87 103 128 129 123 121 130 80 94 118 118 113 111 150 76 90 112 113 107 106 170 73 86 107 107 102 101 190 69 82 102 102 97 96 Case 2/3

10 635 751 937 1174 1119 1102 30 225 266 332 416 396 390 50 156 185 230 288 275 271 70 123 146 182 228 217 214 90 102 120 150 188 179 176 30,000 110 87 103 128 161 153 151 130 80 94 118 148 141 139 150 76 90 112 141 134 132 170 73 86 107 134 128 126 190 69 82 102 127 122 120

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Table 7.10 – Estimated DTRRIP Incremental Average Hour NO2 Roadside Impacts

1-Hour Average Concentrations (µg/m3)

Distance AAQO Average Hour Traffic Activity 3 (m) (µg/m ) 2010 2014 2017 2020 2025 2030 Case 1 10 57.8 22.2 12.8 10.9 8.8 8.0 30 21.3 8.2 4.7 4.0 3.2 2.9 50 15.2 5.8 3.4 2.9 2.3 2.1 70 12.2 4.7 2.7 2.3 1.9 1.7 90 9.1 3.5 2.0 1.7 1.4 1.3 200 110 9.1 3.5 2.0 1.7 1.4 1.3 130 9.1 3.5 2.0 1.7 1.4 1.3 150 9.3 3.6 2.1 1.8 1.4 1.3 170 6.1 2.3 1.3 1.1 0.9 0.8 190 6.1 2.3 1.3 1.1 0.9 0.8 Case 2/3

10 57.8 22.2 12.8 13.6 11.0 10.0 30 21.3 8.2 4.7 5.0 4.0 3.7 50 15.2 5.8 3.4 3.6 2.9 2.6 70 12.2 4.7 2.7 2.9 2.3 2.1 90 9.1 3.5 2.0 2.2 1.7 1.6 200 110 9.1 3.5 2.0 2.2 1.7 1.6 130 9.1 3.5 2.0 2.2 1.7 1.6 150 9.3 3.6 2.1 2.2 1.8 1.6 170 6.1 2.3 1.3 1.4 1.2 1.1 190 6.1 2.3 1.3 1.4 1.2 1.1

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Table 7.11 – Estimated DTRRIP Incremental Peak Hour NO2 Roadside Impacts

1-Hour Average Concentrations (µg/m3)

Distance AAQO Peak Hour Traffic Activity 3 (m) (µg/m ) 2010 2014 2017 2020 2025 2030 Case 1 10 84.6 36.3 23.3 20.5 16.8 15.4 30 31.2 13.4 8.6 7.6 6.2 5.7 50 22.3 9.6 6.1 5.4 4.4 4.1 70 17.8 7.6 4.9 4.3 3.5 3.3 90 13.4 5.7 3.7 3.2 2.7 2.4 200 110 13.4 5.7 3.7 3.2 2.7 2.4 130 13.4 5.7 3.7 3.2 2.7 2.4 150 13.6 5.8 3.7 3.3 2.7 2.5 170 8.9 3.8 2.4 2.2 1.8 1.6 190 8.9 3.8 2.4 2.2 1.8 1.6 Case 2/3

10 84.6 36.3 23.3 25.6 21.1 19.3 30 31.2 13.4 8.6 9.4 7.8 7.1 50 22.3 9.6 6.1 6.7 5.5 5.1 70 17.8 7.6 4.9 5.4 4.4 4.1 90 13.4 5.7 3.7 4.0 3.3 3.0 200 110 13.4 5.7 3.7 4.0 3.3 3.0 130 13.4 5.7 3.7 4.0 3.3 3.0 150 13.6 5.8 3.7 4.1 3.4 3.1 170 8.9 3.8 2.4 2.7 2.2 2.0 190 8.9 3.8 2.4 2.7 2.2 2.0

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Table 7.12 – Estimated DTRRIP Incremental Average Hour SO2 Roadside Impacts

1-Hour Average Concentrations (µg/m3)

Distance AAQO Average Hour Traffic Activity 3 (m) (µg/m ) 2010 2014 2017 2020 2025 2030 Case 1 10 1.0 1.2 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 30 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 50 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 70 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 90 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 450 110 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 130 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 150 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 170 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 190 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 Case 2/3

10 1.0 1.2 1.6 2.0 2.0 2.0 30 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.8 0.8 0.8 50 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 70 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 90 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 450 110 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 130 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 150 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 170 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 190 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3

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Table 7.13 – Estimated DTRRIP Incremental Peak Hour SO2 Roadside Impacts

1-Hour Average Concentrations (µg/m3)

Distance AAQO Peak Hour Traffic Activity 3 (m) (µg/m ) 2010 2014 2017 2020 2025 2030 Case 1 10 1.8 2.1 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 30 0.7 0.8 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 50 0.5 0.6 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 70 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 90 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 450 110 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 130 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 150 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 170 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 190 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 Case 2/3

10 1.8 2.1 2.9 3.6 3.6 3.6 30 0.7 0.8 1.1 1.4 1.4 1.4 50 0.5 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.0 1.0 70 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.8 90 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7 450 110 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 130 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 150 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 170 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 190 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5

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Table 7.14 – Estimated DTRRIP Incremental Average Hour PM2.5 Roadside Impacts

1-Hour Average Concentrations (µg/m3)

Distance AAQO Average Hour Traffic Activity 3 (m) (µg/m ) 2010 2014 2017 2020 2025 2030 Case 1 10 5.5 2.1 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 30 1.9 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 50 1.4 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 70 1.1 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 90 0.9 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 n/a 110 0.8 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 130 0.7 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 150 0.7 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 170 0.6 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 190 0.6 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 Case 2/3

10 5.5 2.1 1.8 2.3 2.3 2.3 30 1.9 0.7 0.6 0.8 0.8 0.8 50 1.4 0.5 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.6 70 1.1 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 90 0.9 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 n/a 110 0.8 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 130 0.7 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 150 0.7 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 170 0.6 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 190 0.6 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 Note: n/a - not applicable

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Table 7.15 – Estimated DTRRIP Incremental Peak Hour PM2.5 Roadside Impacts

1-Hour Average Concentrations (µg/m3)

Distance AAQO Peak Hour Traffic Activity 3 (m) (µg/m ) 2010 2014 2017 2020 2025 2030 Case 1 10 7.9 3.2 2.9 3.0 3.0 3.0 30 2.8 1.1 1.0 1.1 1.0 1.0 50 2.0 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 70 1.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 90 1.3 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 n/a 110 1.2 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 130 1.0 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 150 1.0 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 170 0.9 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.3 190 0.9 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 Case 2/3

10 7.9 3.2 2.9 3.7 3.7 3.7 30 2.8 1.1 1.0 1.3 1.3 1.3 50 2.0 0.8 0.7 0.9 0.9 0.9 70 1.6 0.6 0.6 0.8 0.7 0.7 90 1.3 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 n/a 110 1.2 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 130 1.0 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 150 1.0 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 170 0.9 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 190 0.9 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 Note: n/a - not applicable

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Figure 7.1 – Estimated DTRRIP Incremental CO Roadside Air Quality Impacts

Case 1 - Average Hour Traffic Case 2/3 - Average Hour Traffic

1400 1400 )

) 1200 1200

3 3 1000 2010 1000 2010 800 2014 800 2014 600 2017 600 2017

400 2020 400 2020 Concentration (µg/m 200 2025 Concentration (µg/m 200 2025 0 2030 0 2030 10 30 50 70 90 110 130 150 170 190 10 30 50 70 90 110 130 150 170 190 Distance from Road (m) Distance from Road (m)

Case 1 - Maximum Hour Traffic Case 2/3 - Maximum Hour Traffic

1400 1400

) )

1200 3 1200 3 1000 2010 1000 2010 800 2014 800 2014 600 2017 600 2017

400 2020 400 2020 Concentration (µg/m Concentration (µg/m 200 2025 200 2025 0 2030 0 2030 10 30 50 70 90 110 130 150 170 190 10 30 50 70 90 110 130 150 170 190 Distance from Road (m) Distance from Road (m)

380220 - October 2012 7-27 SENES Consultants Limited Air Quality Assessment Deltaport Terminal, Road and Rail Improvement Project

Figure 7.2 – Estimated DTRRIP Incremental NO2 Roadside Air Quality Impacts

Case 1 - Average Hour Traffic Case 2/3 - Average Hour Traffic 90 90

80 )

) 80

3 3 70 70 2010 2010 60 60 50 2014 50 2014 40 2017 40 2017 30 30 2020 2020

20 20 Concentration (µg/m 2025 Concentration (µg/m 10 10 2025 0 2030 0 2030 10 30 50 70 90 110 130 150 170 190 10 30 50 70 90 110 130 150 170 190 Distance From Road (m) Distance from Road (m)

Case 1 - Maximum Hour Traffic Case 2/3 - Maximum Hour Traffic 90 90

80 80

) ) 3 3 70 70 2010 60 60 2010 50 2014 50 2014 40 2017 40 2017 30 30 2020 2020

20 20 2025 Concentration (µg/m Concentration (µg/m 10 2025 10 2030 0 2030 0 10 30 50 70 90 110 130 150 170 190 10 30 50 70 90 110 130 150 170 190 Distance from Road (m) Distance from Road (m)

380220 - October 2012 7-28 SENES Consultants Limited Air Quality Assessment Deltaport Terminal, Road and Rail Improvement Project

Figure 7.3 – Estimated DTRRIP Incremental SO2 Roadside Air Quality Impacts

Case 1 - Average Hour Traffic Case 2/3 - Average Hour Traffic

4.0 4.0 )

3.5 ) 3.5

3 3 3.0 2010 3.0 2010 2.5 2.5 2014 2014 2.0 2.0 2017 2017 1.5 1.5 2020 2020

1.0 1.0 Concentration (µg/m 0.5 2025 Concentration (µg/m 0.5 2025 0.0 2030 0.0 2030 10 30 50 70 90 110 130 150 170 190 10 30 50 70 90 110 130 150 170 190 Distance from Road (m) Distance from Road (m)

Case 1 - Maximum Hour Traffic Case 2/3 - Maximum Hour Traffic

4.0 4.0

)

) 3

3.5 3 3.5 3.0 2010 3.0 2010 2.5 2.5 2014 2014 2.0 2.0 2017 2017 1.5 1.5 1.0 2020 1.0 2020

0.5 Concentration (µg/m Concentrations (µg/m 2025 0.5 2025 0.0 2030 0.0 2030 10 30 50 70 90 110 130 150 170 190 10 30 50 70 90 110 130 150 170 190 Distance from Road (m) Distance from Road (m)

380220 - October 2012 7-29 SENES Consultants Limited Air Quality Assessment Deltaport Terminal, Road and Rail Improvement Project

Figure 7.4 – Estimated DTRRIP Incremental PM2.5 Roadside Air Quality Impacts

Case 1 - Average Hour Traffic Case 2/3 - Average Hour Traffic 9 9

8 8

) ) 3 3 7 7 2010 2010 6 6 5 2014 5 2014 4 2017 4 2017 3 3 2020 2020

2 2 Concentration (µg/m Concentration (µg/m 1 2025 1 2025 0 2030 0 2030 10 30 50 70 90 110 130 150 170 190 10 30 50 70 90 110 130 150 170 190 Distance from Road (m) Distance from Road (m)

Case 1 - Maximum Hour Traffic Case 2/3 - Maximum Hour Traffic 9 9

8 ) 8

)

3 3 7 7 2010 2010 6 6 5 2014 5 2014 4 2017 4 2017 3 3 2020 2020

2 2 Concentration (µg/m 2025 Concentration (µg/m 1 1 2025 0 2030 0 2030 10 30 50 70 90 110 130 150 170 190 10 30 50 70 90 110 130 150 170 190 Distance from Road (m) Distance from Road (m)

380220 - October 2012 7-30 SENES Consultants Limited Air Quality Assessment Deltaport Terminal, Road and Rail Improvement Project

7.3.2 DTRRIP Rail Corridor Air Quality Impacts

Table 7.16 to Table 7.19 list the estimated 1-hour average concentrations in the immediate vicinity of the rail corridor for the peak and average hour train activity related to DTRRIP. Figure 7.5 and Figure 7.6 illustrate the trends with distance from the rail line.

CO Concentrations CO concentrations are highest at 10 m from the rail line in 2010, declining slightly by 2014 and then remaining steady. Even if the 98th percentile CO concentration measured at T39 (Table 2.1) were to be added to the projected incremental impacts from rail emissions, the total concentration of 564.8 µg/m3 in 2010 would only comprise 1.6% of the Metro Vancouver ambient air quality objective of 30,000 µg/m3. Concentrations would be even lower at greater distances from the rail line.

NO2 Concentrations NO2 concentrations are highest at 10 m from the rail line in 2010, declining in 2014 and then again in 2025 and 2030. By 2030, the estimated NO2 concentrations would be approximately 20% of the levels in 2010. Even if the 98th percentile CO concentration measured at T39 (Table 2.1) were to be added to the projected incremental impacts from rail emissions, the total concentrations of 130.4 µg/m3 in 2010 at 10 m from the rail line is still well below the Metro Vancouver ambient air quality objective of 200 µg/m3, and would be much lower at greater distances from the rail line.

SO2 Concentrations SO2 concentrations are highest at 10 m from the rail line in 2010, declining in 2014 to 0.4 µg/m3 or less at all distances from the rail line in all subsequent horizon years. At such

low levels, the incremental impacts of SO2 emissions from the rail corridor would be indistinguishable from background SO2 levels.

PM2.5 Concentrations Similar to the NO2 concentrations, PM2.5 concentrations are highest at 10 m from the rail line in 2010, declining in 2014 and then again in 2025 and 2030. Incremental PM2.5 concentrations would be less than 4 µg/m3 at 30 m from the rail line from 2014 onwards,

making the incremental impacts indistinguishable from background PM2.5 levels.

380220 - October 2012 7-31 SENES Consultants Limited Air Quality Assessment Deltaport Terminal, Road and Rail Improvement Project

Table 7.16 – Estimated DTRRIP Average Hour Incremental CO & NO2 Rail Impacts

1-Hour Average Concentrations (µg/m3)

Distance AAQO Average Hour Traffic Activity 3 (m) (µg/m ) 2010 2014 2017 2020 2025 2030 CO 10 85.2 63.4 37.3 37.3 37.3 37.3 30 30.2 22.5 13.2 13.2 13.2 13.2 50 20.9 15.6 9.2 9.2 9.2 9.2 70 16.6 12.3 7.2 7.2 7.2 7.2 90 13.6 10.1 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 30,000 110 11.7 8.7 5.1 5.1 5.1 5.1 130 10.7 8.0 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.7 150 10.2 7.6 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 170 9.7 7.2 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.3 190 9.2 6.9 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.1

NO2

10 42.0 38.4 32.0 32.0 19.8 19.8 30 15.5 14.1 11.8 11.8 7.3 7.3 50 11.1 10.1 8.4 8.4 5.2 5.2 70 8.8 8.1 6.7 6.7 4.2 4.2 90 6.6 6.1 5.0 5.0 3.1 3.1 200 110 6.6 6.1 5.0 5.0 3.1 3.1 130 6.6 6.1 5.0 5.0 3.1 3.1 150 6.8 6.2 5.1 5.1 3.2 3.2 170 4.4 4.0 3.4 3.4 2.1 2.1 190 4.4 4.0 3.4 3.4 2.1 2.1

380220 - October 2012 7-32 SENES Consultants Limited Air Quality Assessment Deltaport Terminal, Road and Rail Improvement Project

Table 7.17 – Estimated DTRRIP Average Hour Rail Incremental SO2 & PM2.5 Impacts

1-Hour Average Concentrations (µg/m3)

Distance AAQO Average Hour Traffic Activity 3 (m) (µg/m ) 2010 2014 2017 2020 2025 2030

SO2 10 2.55 0.26 0.26 0.26 0.26 0.26 30 1.02 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 50 0.75 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08 70 0.60 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 90 0.51 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 450 110 0.43 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 130 0.38 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 150 0.36 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 170 0.35 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 190 0.34 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03

PM2.5

10 5.7 4.8 3.0 3.0 2.0 2.0 30 2.0 1.7 1.1 1.1 0.7 0.7 50 1.4 1.2 0.8 0.8 0.5 0.5 70 1.1 1.0 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.4 90 1.0 0.8 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.3 n/a 110 0.8 0.7 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 130 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 150 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.2 170 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.2 190 0.7 0.6 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2

380220 - October 2012 7-33 SENES Consultants Limited Air Quality Assessment Deltaport Terminal, Road and Rail Improvement Project

Table 7.18 – Estimated DTRRIP Peak Hour Rail Incremental CO & NO2 Impacts

1-Hour Average Concentrations (µg/m3)

Distance AAQO Peak Hour Traffic Activity 3 (m) (µg/m ) 2010 2014 2017 2020 2025 2030 CO 10 170.4 126.9 74.6 74.6 74.6 74.6 30 60.4 44.9 26.4 26.4 26.4 26.4 50 41.9 31.2 18.3 18.3 18.3 18.3 70 33.1 24.6 14.5 14.5 14.5 14.5 90 27.3 20.3 11.9 11.9 11.9 11.9 30,000 110 23.4 17.4 10.2 10.2 10.2 10.2 130 21.4 15.9 9.4 9.4 9.4 9.4 150 20.4 15.2 9.0 9.0 9.0 9.0 170 19.5 14.5 8.5 8.5 8.5 8.5 190 18.5 13.8 8.1 8.1 8.1 8.1

NO2

10 84.0 76.8 64.0 64.0 39.5 39.5 30 31.0 28.3 23.6 23.6 14.6 14.6 50 22.1 20.2 16.8 16.8 10.4 10.4 70 17.7 16.2 13.5 13.5 8.3 8.3 90 13.3 12.1 10.1 10.1 6.2 6.2 200 110 13.3 12.1 10.1 10.1 6.2 6.2 130 13.3 12.1 10.1 10.1 6.2 6.2 150 13.5 12.3 10.3 10.3 6.4 6.4 170 8.8 8.1 6.7 6.7 4.2 4.2 190 8.8 8.1 6.7 6.7 4.2 4.2

380220 - October 2012 7-34 SENES Consultants Limited Air Quality Assessment Deltaport Terminal, Road and Rail Improvement Project

Table 7.19 – Estimated DTRRIP Peak Hour Rail Incremental SO2 & PM2.5 Impacts

1-Hour Average Concentrations (µg/m3)

Distance AAQO Peak Hour Traffic Activity 3 (m) (µg/m ) 2010 2014 2017 2020 2025 2030

SO2 10 5.1 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 30 2.0 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 50 1.5 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 70 1.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 90 1.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 450 110 0.9 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 130 0.8 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 150 0.7 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 170 0.7 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 190 0.7 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1

PM2.5

10 11.4 9.6 6.0 6.0 3.9 3.9 30 4.0 3.4 2.1 2.1 1.4 1.4 50 2.9 2.4 1.5 1.5 1.0 1.0 70 2.3 1.9 1.2 1.2 0.8 0.8 90 1.9 1.6 1.0 1.0 0.7 0.7 n/a 110 1.7 1.4 0.9 0.9 0.6 0.6 130 1.5 1.2 0.8 0.8 0.5 0.5 150 1.4 1.2 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.5 170 1.3 1.1 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.5 190 1.3 1.1 0.7 0.7 0.4 0.4 Note: n/a - not applicable

380220 - October 2012 7-35 SENES Consultants Limited Air Quality Assessment Deltaport Terminal, Road and Rail Improvement Project

Figure 7.5 – Estimated DTRRIP Average Hour Incremental Rail Corridor Air Quality Impacts

Average Hour CO Average Hour SO2

160 8 )

) 140 7

3 3 120 2010 6 2010 100 5 2014 2014 80 4 2017 2017 60 3 2020 2020

40 2 Concentration (µg/m Concentration (µg/m 20 2025 1 2025 0 2030 0 2030 10 30 50 70 90 110 130 150 170 190 10 30 50 70 90 110 130 150 170 190 Distance from Rail Line (m) Distance from Rail Line (m)

Average Hour NO2 Average Hour PM2.5 140 16

120 ) 14 3 12 100 2010 2010 10 80 2014 2014 8 60 2017 2017 6 2020 40 2020 4

20 2025 Concentration (µg/m 2 2025 Distance Distance fromLine Rail (m) 0 2030 0 2030 10 30 50 70 90 110 130 150 170 190 10 30 50 70 90 110 130 150 170 190 Distance from Rail Line (m) Distance from Rail Line (m)

380220 - October 2012 7-36 SENES Consultants Limited Air Quality Assessment Deltaport Terminal, Road and Rail Improvement Project

Figure 7.6 – Estimated DTRRIP Peak Hour Incremental Rail Corridor Air Quality Impacts

Maximum Hour CO Maximum Hour SO2

160 8 )

) 140 7

3 3 120 2010 6 2010 100 5 2014 2014 80 4 2017 2017 60 3 2020 2020

Maximum Hour NO2 Maximum Hour PM2.5

140 16 )

) 120 14

3 3 100 2010 12 2010 10 80 2014 2014 8 60 2017 2017 6 2020 2020

40 4 Concentration (µg/m Concentration (µg/m 20 2025 2 2025 0 2030 0 2030 10 30 50 70 90 110 130 150 170 190 10 30 50 70 90 110 130 150 170 190 Distance from Rail Line (m) Distance from Rail Line (m)

380220 - October 2012 7-37 SENES Consultants Limited Air Quality Assessment Deltaport Terminal, Road and Rail Improvement Project

7.3.3 CEA Roadside Air Quality Impacts

Air quality impacts for the Roberts Bank Rail Corridor (RBRC) project were evaluated for the infrastructure improvements at the 54th Avenue and 192nd and 196th Street road/rail grade separations (SENES 2011) and the Panorama Ridge Whistle Cessation Project in Surrey, B.C. (SENES 2011). These assessments considered the impact on local air quality resulting from changes in emissions from vehicular traffic and existing rail traffic.

The air quality assessment for emissions due to vehicular traffic changes associated with the overpasses at 192nd and 196th Street determined that there would be negligible changes in air quality impacts for the gaseous contaminants (i.e., CO, NO2 and SO2) between existing conditions in 2009 and projected future traffic in 2031. There would be a slight increase in PM2.5 concentrations, but a net reduction in diesel particulate matter burden.

For the Panorama Ridge Whistle Cessation project, it was determined that the realignment of Colebrook Road and extension of the railway siding would result in minor changes in air quality concentrations (i.e., generally less than ±3%) for gaseous pollutants by 2026 due to newer engine technologies and fuels, despite projected increases in traffic resulting from population growth.

PM10 concentrations could decrease by 7% or less compared with 2011, depending on distance from the realignment of Colebrook Road, while PM2.5 could decrease by up to 2.5%, again depending on location. The annual diesel particulate matter pollutant burden is also expected to decrease by up to 20% as a result of improved engine technologies and fuels.

The following discussion provides an assessment of the anticipated incremental impact of emissions from on-road traffic associated with the marine terminals at Roberts Bank on air quality. The assessment assumes that all traffic from Roberts Bank travels along a single road. It is therefore most representative of air quality impacts along Highway 17 between Deltaport Way and Highway 99 in 2010 and along the SFPR from Deltaport Way to Highway 99 in all subsequent horizon years.

Table 7.20 to Table 7.27 list the estimated incremental 1-hour average ambient air quality impacts beside the roadway for the average hour and peak hour traffic levels along Highway #17 or the SFPR. The data are also presented graphically in Figure 7.7 to Figure 7.10.

CO Concentrations Table 7.20 and Table 7.21 (Figure 7.7) indicate that the estimated CO concentrations are highest at 10 m from the roadway and decrease with increasing distance from the roadway. Based on the projected changes in emissions, CO concentrations would more

380220 - October 2012 7-38 SENES Consultants Limited Air Quality Assessment Deltaport Terminal, Road and Rail Improvement Project

than double at all distances from the roadside between levels in 2010 and 2030 for the average hour traffic scenario, and would reach a peak concentration of 2376 µg/m3 in 2030 for the peak hour traffic scenario (10 m distance). If the 98th percentile concentration of 394 µg/m3 at T39 is added to the maximum estimated incremental CO concentration, the maximum 1-hour average CO concentration at 10 m from the roadway would be 2770 µg/m3, a level less than 10% of the Metro Vancouver ambient air quality objective of 30,000 µg/m3.

NO2 Concentrations Table 7.22 and Table 7.23 (Figure 7.8) indicate that the estimated NO2 concentrations are highest at 10 m from the roadway in 2010, would decline to a minimum in 2017, and then increase again to a secondary peak level in 2025 with the additional container truck traffic from the proposed Terminal 2, before declining again from 2025 to 2030 for Case 1 or continuing to increase again to 2030 for Case 2,3. Nevertheless, the maximum

projected NO2 concentrations in 2030 would be one-third of the levels in 2010 for the average traffic scenario and approximately 42% of the 2010 levels for the Case 2/3 peak

hour traffic scenario. In all cases, therefore, NO2 concentrations would decline even with th higher traffic levels in future horizon years. If the 98 percentile NO2 concentration at T39 (Table 2.1) is added as a background estimate to the highest estimated concentration

in 2030 for marine terminal traffic at 10 m from the roadway, the resultant total NO2 concentration of 86.4 µg/m3 would still be less than half the Metro Vancouver ambient air quality objective of 200 µg/m3.

SO2 Concentrations Table 7.24 and Table 7.25 (Figure 7.9) indicate that all estimated SO2 concentrations beside the roadway would be very low. Although the maximum 1-hour average SO2 concentrations at 10 m from the roadway could increase from 2.0 µg/m3 in 2010 to 7.4 3 µg/m in 2030, the changes in SO2 levels at distances greater than 30 m from the roadway would be largely indistinguishable from background concentrations. The total concentrations would remain as a small fraction of the Metro Vancouver ambient air quality objective of 450 µg/m3.

PM2.5 Concentrations Table 7.26 and Table 7.27 (Figure 7.10) indicate that, similar to the trend for NO2 concentrations, incremental 1-hour average PM2.5 concentrations would be highest at 10 m from the roadway in 2010, decline to a minimum level in 2017, and increase thereafter with the additional traffic levels from the proposed Terminal 2 container trucks.

380220 - October 2012 7-39 SENES Consultants Limited Air Quality Assessment Deltaport Terminal, Road and Rail Improvement Project

However, the increase in PM2.5 concentrations from 2020 to 2030 would remain below the existing levels for the average hour traffic scenarios in Cases 1, and 2/3 and the peak

hour traffic scenario for Case 1. PM2.5 concentrations would only begin to approach existing 2010 levels by 2030 for the Case 2/3 peak traffic scenario. Nevertheless, for the

most part, incremental 1-hour average PM2.5 concentrations would be indistinguishable from background levels at distances greater than 30 m from the roadway for all traffic scenarios in future horizon years.

380220 - October 2012 7-40 SENES Consultants Limited Air Quality Assessment Deltaport Terminal, Road and Rail Improvement Project

Table 7.20 – Estimated CEA Incremental Average Hour CO Roadside Impacts

1-Hour Average Concentrations (µg/m3)

Distance AAQO Average Hour Traffic Activity 3 (m) (µg/m ) 2010 2014 2017 2020 2025 2030 Case 1 10 252 276 331 471 607 597 30 89 98 117 167 215 212 50 62 68 81 116 149 147 70 49 54 64 91 118 116 90 40 44 53 75 97 96 30,000 110 35 38 45 65 83 82 130 32 35 42 59 76 75 150 30 33 40 57 73 72 170 29 31 38 54 69 68 190 27 30 36 51 66 65 Case 2/3

10 252 276 331 471 614 735 30 89 98 117 167 217 261 50 62 68 81 116 151 181 70 49 54 64 91 119 143 90 40 44 53 75 98 118 30,000 110 35 38 45 65 84 101 130 32 35 42 59 77 92 150 30 33 40 57 74 88 170 29 31 38 54 70 84 190 27 30 36 51 67 80

380220 - October 2012 7-41 SENES Consultants Limited Air Quality Assessment Deltaport Terminal, Road and Rail Improvement Project

Table 7.21 – Estimated CEA Incremental Peak Hour CO Roadside Impacts

1-Hour Average Concentrations (µg/m3)

Distance AAQO Peak Hour Traffic Activity 3 (m) (µg/m ) 2010 2014 2017 2020 2025 2030 Case 1 10 761 895 1084 1532 1966 1936 30 270 317 384 543 697 686 50 187 220 266 377 483 476 70 148 174 211 298 382 376 90 122 143 173 245 315 310 30,000 110 104 123 149 210 270 265 130 96 112 136 193 247 243 150 91 107 130 184 236 232 170 87 102 124 175 225 221 190 83 97 118 166 213 210 Case 2/3

10 761 895 1084 1532 1989 2376 30 270 317 384 543 705 842 50 187 220 266 377 489 584 70 148 174 211 298 386 462 90 122 143 173 245 318 380 30,000 110 104 123 149 210 273 326 130 96 112 136 193 250 299 150 91 107 130 184 239 285 170 87 102 124 175 227 272 190 83 97 118 166 216 258

380220 - October 2012 7-42 SENES Consultants Limited Air Quality Assessment Deltaport Terminal, Road and Rail Improvement Project

Table 7.22 – Estimated CEA Incremental Average Hour NO2 Roadside Impacts

1-Hour Average Concentrations (µg/m3)

Distance AAQO Average Hour Traffic Activity 3 (m) (µg/m ) 2010 2014 2017 2020 2025 2030 Case 1 10 58.2 22.7 13.2 16.3 18.0 16.4 30 21.5 8.4 4.8 6.0 6.6 6.0 50 15.3 6.0 3.5 4.3 4.7 4.3 70 12.3 4.8 2.8 3.4 3.8 3.4 90 9.2 3.6 2.1 2.6 2.8 2.6 200 110 9.2 3.6 2.1 2.6 2.8 2.6 130 9.2 3.6 2.1 2.6 2.8 2.6 150 9.4 3.6 2.1 2.6 2.9 2.6 170 6.1 2.4 1.4 1.7 1.9 1.7 190 6.1 2.4 1.4 1.7 1.9 1.7 Case 2/3

10 58.2 22.7 13.2 16.3 18.2 20.4 30 21.5 8.4 4.8 6.0 6.7 7.5 50 15.3 6.0 3.5 4.3 4.8 5.4 70 12.3 4.8 2.8 3.4 3.8 4.3 90 9.2 3.6 2.1 2.6 2.9 3.2 200 110 9.2 3.6 2.1 2.6 2.9 3.2 130 9.2 3.6 2.1 2.6 2.9 3.2 150 9.4 3.6 2.1 2.6 2.9 3.3 170 6.1 2.4 1.4 1.7 1.9 2.1 190 6.1 2.4 1.4 1.7 1.9 2.1

380220 - October 2012 7-43 SENES Consultants Limited Air Quality Assessment Deltaport Terminal, Road and Rail Improvement Project

Table 7.23 – Estimated CEA Incremental Peak Hour NO2 Roadside Impacts

1-Hour Average Concentrations (µg/m3)

Distance AAQO Peak Hour Traffic Activity 3 (m) (µg/m ) 2010 2014 2017 2020 2025 2030 Case 1 10 86.4 38.3 24.8 31.6 35.3 32.4 30 31.8 14.1 9.1 11.6 13.0 11.9 50 22.7 10.1 6.5 8.3 9.3 8.5 70 18.2 8.1 5.2 6.7 7.4 6.8 90 13.6 6.0 3.9 5.0 5.6 5.1 200 110 13.6 6.0 3.9 5.0 5.6 5.1 130 13.6 6.0 3.9 5.0 5.6 5.1 150 13.9 6.2 4.0 5.1 5.7 5.2 170 9.1 4.0 2.6 3.3 3.7 3.4 190 9.1 4.0 2.6 3.3 3.7 3.4 Case 2/3

10 86.4 38.3 24.8 31.6 35.7 40.1 30 31.8 14.1 9.1 11.6 13.2 14.8 50 22.7 10.1 6.5 8.3 9.4 10.6 70 18.2 8.1 5.2 6.7 7.5 8.4 90 13.6 6.0 3.9 5.0 5.6 6.3 200 110 13.6 6.0 3.9 5.0 5.6 6.3 130 13.6 6.0 3.9 5.0 5.6 6.3 150 13.9 6.2 4.0 5.1 5.7 6.5 170 9.1 4.0 2.6 3.3 3.8 4.2 190 9.1 4.0 2.6 3.3 3.8 4.2

380220 - October 2012 7-44 SENES Consultants Limited Air Quality Assessment Deltaport Terminal, Road and Rail Improvement Project

Table 7.24 – Estimated CEA Incremental Average Hour SO2 Roadside Impacts

1-Hour Average Concentrations (µg/m3)

Distance AAQO Average Hour Traffic Activity 3 (m) (µg/m ) 2010 2014 2017 2020 2025 2030 Case 1 10 1.1 1.2 1.6 2.4 3.2 3.2 30 0.4 0.5 0.7 1.0 1.3 1.3 50 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.7 1.0 1.0 70 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.8 0.8 90 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.7 450 110 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 130 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.5 150 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.5 170 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 190 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 Case 2/3

10 1.1 1.2 1.6 2.4 3.3 4.0 30 0.4 0.5 0.7 1.0 1.3 1.6 50 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.7 1.0 1.2 70 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 90 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.8 450 110 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.7 130 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.6 150 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.6 170 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.6 190 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5

380220 - October 2012 7-45 SENES Consultants Limited Air Quality Assessment Deltaport Terminal, Road and Rail Improvement Project

Table 7.25 – Estimated CEA Incremental Peak Hour SO2 Roadside Impacts

1-Hour Average Concentrations (µg/m3)

Distance AAQO Peak Hour Traffic Activity 3 (m) (µg/m ) 2010 2014 2017 2020 2025 2030 Case 1 10 2.0 2.2 3.0 4.4 6.0 6.0 30 0.8 0.9 1.2 1.8 2.4 2.4 50 0.6 0.7 0.9 1.3 1.7 1.7 70 0.5 0.5 0.7 1.0 1.4 1.4 90 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.9 1.2 1.2 450 110 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.7 1.0 1.0 130 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.9 0.9 150 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.8 0.8 170 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.8 0.8 190 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.8 0.8 Case 2/3

10 2.0 2.2 3.0 4.4 6.0 7.4 30 0.8 0.9 1.2 1.8 2.4 3.0 50 0.6 0.7 0.9 1.3 1.8 2.2 70 0.5 0.5 0.7 1.0 1.4 1.7 90 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.9 1.2 1.5 450 110 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.7 1.0 1.2 130 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.9 1.1 150 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 170 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 190 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0

380220 - October 2012 7-46 SENES Consultants Limited Air Quality Assessment Deltaport Terminal, Road and Rail Improvement Project

Table 7.26 – Estimated CEA Incremental Average Hour PM2.5 Roadside Impacts

1-Hour Average Concentrations (µg/m3)

Distance AAQO Average Hour Traffic Activity 3 (m) (µg/m ) 2010 2014 2017 2020 2025 2030 Case 1 10 5.5 2.1 1.8 2.7 3.7 3.7 30 2.0 0.7 0.6 1.0 1.3 1.3 50 1.4 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.9 0.9 70 1.1 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.7 90 0.9 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.6 n/a 110 0.8 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 130 0.7 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.5 150 0.7 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.5 170 0.7 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 190 0.6 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 Case 2/3

10 5.5 2.1 1.8 2.7 3.8 4.6 30 2.0 0.7 0.6 1.0 1.3 1.6 50 1.4 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.9 1.2 70 1.1 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.8 0.9 90 0.9 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.8 n/a 110 0.8 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.7 130 0.7 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.6 150 0.7 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.6 170 0.7 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 190 0.6 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 Note: n/a - not applicable

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Table 7.27 – Estimated CEA Incremental Peak Hour PM2.5 Roadside Air Quality Impacts

1-Hour Average Concentrations (µg/m3)

Distance AAQO Peak Hour Traffic Activity 3 (m) (µg/m ) 2010 2014 2017 2020 2025 2030 Case 1 10 8.0 3.3 3.0 4.5 6.1 6.1 30 2.8 1.2 1.1 1.6 2.2 2.2 50 2.0 0.8 0.8 1.1 1.5 1.5 70 1.6 0.7 0.6 0.9 1.2 1.2 90 1.4 0.6 0.5 0.8 1.0 1.0 n/a 110 1.2 0.5 0.4 0.7 0.9 0.9 130 1.0 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.8 0.8 150 1.0 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.8 0.8 170 0.9 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.7 190 0.9 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.7 Case 2/3

10 8.0 3.3 3.0 4.5 6.2 7.6 30 2.8 1.2 1.1 1.6 2.2 2.7 50 2.0 0.8 0.8 1.1 1.5 1.9 70 1.6 0.7 0.6 0.9 1.2 1.5 90 1.4 0.6 0.5 0.8 1.1 1.3 n/a 110 1.2 0.5 0.4 0.7 0.9 1.1 130 1.0 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 150 1.0 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.8 0.9 170 0.9 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.9 190 0.9 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.9 Note: n/a - not applicable

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Figure 7.7 – Estimated CEA Incremental CO Roadside Air Quality Impacts

Case 1 - Average Hour Traffic Case 2/3 - Average Hour Traffic

2500 2500

) ) 3 3 2000 2000 2010 2010 1500 2014 1500 2014

1000 2017 1000 2017 2020 2020

500 500 Concentration (µg/m Concentration (µg/m 2025 2025 0 2030 0 2030 10 30 50 70 90 110 130 150 170 190 10 30 50 70 90 110 130 150 170 190 Distance from Road (m) Distance from Road (m)

Case 1 - Maximum Hour Traffic Case 2/3 - Maximum Hour Traffic

2500 2500

)

) 3 2000 3 2000 2010 2010 1500 2014 1500 2014 2017 1000 1000 2017 2020 2020

500 500 Concentration (µg/m 2025 Concentration (µg/m 2025 0 2030 0 2030 10 30 50 70 90 110 130 150 170 190 10 30 50 70 90 110 130 150 170 190 Distance from Road (m) Distance from Road (m)

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Figure 7.8 – Estimated CEA Incremental NO2 Roadside Air Quality Impacts

Case 1 - Average Hour Traffic Case 2/3 - Average Hour Traffic 100 100

90 90

) ) 3 3 80 80 70 2010 70 2010 60 2014 60 2014 50 50 40 2017 40 2017 30 2020 30 2020

20 20 Concentration (µg/m Concentration (µg/m 2025 2025 10 10 0 2030 0 2030 10 30 50 70 90 110 130 150 170 190 10 30 50 70 90 110 130 150 170 190 Distance from Road (m) Distance from Road (m)

Case 1 - Maximum Hour Traffic Case 2/3 - Maximum Hour Traffic 100 100

)

) 3 80 3 80 2010 70 2010 60 2014 60 2014 50 40 2017 40 2017 2020 30 2020

20 20 Concentration (µg/m Concentration (µg/m 2025 2025 10 0 2030 0 2030 10 30 50 70 90 110 130 150 170 190 10 30 50 70 90 110 130 150 170 190 Distance from Road (m) Distance from Road (m)

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Figure 7.9 – Estimated CEA Incremental SO2 Roadside Air Quality Impacts

Case 1 - Average Hour Traffic Case 2/3 - Average Hour Traffic 10 10

9 9

) ) 3 3 8 8 7 2010 7 2010 6 2014 6 2014 5 5 4 2017 4 2017 3 2020 3 2020

2 2 Concentration (µg/m Concentration (µg/m 2025 2025 1 1 0 2030 0 2030 10 30 50 70 90 110 130 150 170 190 10 30 50 70 90 110 130 150 170 190 Distance from Road (m) Distance from Road (m)

Case 2/3 - Average Hour Traffic Case 2/3 - Maximum Hour Traffic 10 10

9 9

)

) 3 8 3 8 7 2010 7 2010 6 2014 6 2014 5 5 4 2017 4 2017 3 2020 3 2020

2 2 Concentration (µg/m 2025 Concentration (µg/m 2025 1 1 0 2030 0 2030 10 30 50 70 90 110 130 150 170 190 10 30 50 70 90 110 130 150 170 190 Distance from Road (m) Distance from Road (m)

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Figure 7.10 – Estimated CEA Incremental PM2.5 Roadside Air Quality Impacts

Case 1 - Average Hour Traffic Case 2/3 - Average Hour Traffic 9 9

8 8

)

) 3 7 3 7 2010 2010 6 6 5 2014 5 2014 4 2017 4 2017 3 3 2020 2020

2 2 Concentration (µg/m Concentration (µg/m 2025 1 2025 1 0 2030 0 2030 10 30 50 70 90 110 130 150 170 190 10 30 50 70 90 110 130 150 170 190 Distance from Road (m) Distance from Road (m)

Case 1 - Maximum Hour Traffic Case 2/3 - Maximum Hour Traffic 9 9

8 8

)

) 3 7 3 7 2010 2010 6 6 5 2014 5 2014 4 2017 4 2017 3 2020 3 2020

2 2 Concentration (µg/m 2025 Concentration (µg/m 2025 1 1 0 2030 0 2030 10 30 50 70 90 110 130 150 170 190 10 30 50 70 90 110 130 150 170 190 Distance from Road (m) Distance from Road (m)

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7.3.4 CEA Rail Corridor Air Quality Impacts

Air quality impacts for the Roberts Bank Rail Corridor (RBRC) project were evaluated for the infrastructure improvements at the 54th Avenue and 192nd and 196th Street road/rail grade separations (SENES 2011) and the Panorama Ridge Whistle Cessation Project in Surrey, B.C. (SENES 2011). These assessments considered the impact on air quality resulting from changes in emissions from vehicular traffic and existing rail traffic.

There would be no change to air quality emissions or air quality impacts from rail locomotives for the grade separations at 192nd and 196th Streets. However, it was estimated that 1-hour average NO2 concentrations at the nearest residential locations for the Panorama Ridge Whistle Cessation project could increase by up to 39% if two locomotives were idling near the residences at the railway siding after the realignment of Colebrook Road. The 1-hour average NO2 concentrations would not exceed applicable ambient air quality objectives at any of the residential locations, with maximum projected concentrations at 42% of the applicable criteria. The likelihood of one locomotive idling nearby a residential location is relatively high; however, the common practice for container trains is for the two lead engines to idle at the front end of the siding, which would result in two engines idling near the bridge at King George Boulevard as opposed to near one of the residential properties. Therefore, the hypothetical assumption of having two engines idling outside the receptor closest to the railway siding is considered to be a very conservative assumption since it is unlikely that two engines would ever be in close proximity to the residential receptors. The effect of in-transit locomotives (as opposed to idling locomotives at the siding) on air quality beside the rail corridor is discussed below.

Table 7.28 and Table 7.29 list the estimated incremental 1-hour average concentrations for emissions from peak rail traffic along the rail corridor from Roberts Bank for the peak hour traffic scenario. The data are presented graphically in Figure 7.11.

There is no difference between Case 1 and Case 2/3 for the hourly emissions scenarios. The average rail traffic scenario is not presented in the tables and figures of this section as it is identical to that which was presented for DTRRIP in Section 7.2.2.

CO Concentrations As indicated in Table 7.28, the incremental CO concentrations are reduced from 2010 to 2014 and increase to a maximum of 146.5 µg/m3 (10 m distance) in 2020. If the 98th percentile CO concentration of 394.4 µg/m3 at T39 is added to the maximum estimated incremental CO concentration, the maximum 1-hour average CO concentration at 10 m from the rail corridor of 540.9 µg/m3 would only comprise 1.8% of the Metro Vancouver

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ambient air quality objective of 30,000 µg/m3.

NO2 Concentrations Table 7.28 also shows that the incremental NO2 concentrations are reduced from 2010 to 2014 and increase to a maximum of 125.5 µg/m3 (10 m distance) in 2017, with substantial reductions in 2025 and 2030. The 2030 concentrations are approximately th 62% of the maximum levels in 2017. If the 98 percentile NO2 concentration of 46.4 3 µg/m at T39 is added to the maximum estimated incremental NO2 concentration, the

maximum 1-hour average NO2 concentration at 10 m from the rail corridor of 171.9 µg/m3 is still well below the Metro Vancouver ambient air quality objective of 200 µg/m3, and would be much lower at greater distances from the rail line.

SO2 Concentrations 3 As shown in Table 7.29, the maximum incremental SO2 concentration of 10 µg/m (10 m th distance) in 2010 is reduced substantially in 2014. If the 98 percentile SO2 3 concentration of 7.2 µg/m at T39 is added to the maximum estimated incremental SO2

concentration, the maximum 1-hour average SO2 concentration at 10 m from the rail corridor of 17.2 µg/m3 would only comprise 3.8% of the Metro Vancouver ambient air quality objective of 450 µg/m3.

SO2 concentrations are highest at 10 m from the rail line in 2010, declining in 2014 to 1 µg/m3 or less at all distances from the rail line in all subsequent horizon years. At such

low levels, the incremental impacts of SO2 emissions from the rail corridor would be indistinguishable from background SO2 levels.

PM2.5 Concentrations Similar to the NO2 concentrations, PM2.5 concentrations are highest at 10 m from the rail line in 2010, declining in 2014 and then again in 2017 and 2025. Incremental PM2.5 concentrations would be less than 7 µg/m3 at 30 m and beyond from the rail line from

2014 onwards, making the incremental impacts indistinguishable from background PM2.5 levels.

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Table 7.28 – Estimated CEA Rail Incremental CO & NO2 Impacts

1-Hour Average Concentrations (µg/m3)

Distance AAQO Peak Hour Traffic Activity 3 (m) (µg/m ) 2010 2014 2017 2020 2025 2030 CO 10 334.5 249.0 146.5 146.5 146.5 146.5 30 118.5 88.2 51.9 51.9 51.9 51.9 50 82.2 61.2 36.0 36.0 36.0 36.0 70 65.0 48.4 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.5 90 53.5 39.8 23.4 23.4 23.4 23.4 30,000 110 45.9 34.2 20.1 20.1 20.1 20.1 130 42.0 31.3 18.4 18.4 18.4 18.4 150 40.1 29.9 17.6 17.6 17.6 17.6 170 38.2 28.5 16.7 16.7 16.7 16.7 190 36.3 27.0 15.9 15.9 15.9 15.9

NO2

10 164.9 150.7 125.5 125.5 77.6 77.6 30 60.8 55.5 46.3 46.3 28.6 28.6 50 43.4 39.6 33.0 33.0 20.4 20.4 70 34.7 31.7 26.4 26.4 16.3 16.3 90 26.0 23.8 19.8 19.8 12.3 12.3 200 110 26.0 23.8 19.8 19.8 12.3 12.3 130 26.0 23.8 19.8 19.8 12.3 12.3 150 26.5 24.2 20.2 20.2 12.5 12.5 170 17.4 15.9 13.2 13.2 8.2 8.2 190 17.4 15.9 13.2 13.2 8.2 8.2

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Table 7.29 – Estimated CEA Rail Incremental SO2 & PM2.5 Impacts

1-Hour Average Concentrations (µg/m3)

Distance AAQO Peak Hour Traffic Activity 3 (m) (µg/m ) 2010 2014 2017 2020 2025 2030

SO2 10 10.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 30 4.0 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 50 2.9 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 70 2.4 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 90 2.0 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 450 110 1.7 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 130 1.5 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 150 1.4 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 170 1.4 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 190 1.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1

PM2.5

10 22.4 18.9 11.8 11.8 7.7 7.7 30 7.9 6.7 4.2 4.2 2.7 2.7 50 5.6 4.7 3.0 3.0 1.9 1.9 70 4.5 3.8 2.4 2.4 1.5 1.5 90 3.8 3.2 2.0 2.0 1.3 1.3 n/a 110 3.3 2.7 1.7 1.7 1.1 1.1 130 2.9 2.5 1.5 1.5 1.0 1.0 150 2.8 2.3 1.5 1.5 0.9 0.9 170 2.6 2.2 1.4 1.4 0.9 0.9 190 2.6 2.2 1.3 1.3 0.9 0.9 Note: n/a - not applicable

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Figure 7.11 – Estimated CEA Peak Hour Incremental Rail Corridor Air Quality Impacts

Maximum Hour CO Maximum Hour SO2

400 12 )

) 350 3 3 10 300 2010 2010 8 250 2014 2014 200 6 2017 2017 150 2020 4 2020

100 Concentration (µg/m Concentration (µg/m 2 50 2025 2025 0 2030 0 2030 10 30 50 70 90 110 130 150 170 190 10 30 50 70 90 110 130 150 170 190 Distance from Rail Line (m) Distance from Rail Line (m)

Maximum Hour PM2.5 Maximum Hour NO2 25 180

160

) ) 3 3 20 140 2010 120 2010 15 2014 100 2014 80 10 2017 2017 60 2020 2020

5 40 Concentration (µg/m Concentration (µg/m 2025 20 2025 0 2030 0 2030 10 30 50 70 90 110 130 150 170 190 10 30 50 70 90 110 130 150 170 190 Distance from Rail Line (m) Distance from Rail Line (m)

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7.4 FUGITIVE DUST FROM COAL TRAINS

No explicit modelling of fugitive coal dust emissions from coal trains was conducted for this assessment. However, the impact of such emissions was determined in monitoring studies conducted on coal trains travelling to Roberts Bank in 1984 and 1985 (ESL 1986). The monitoring studies were conducted at track-side in Agassiz for a period of one month. The study showed that dusting trains were generally associated with days with very high wind speeds, and that only light dusting of the occasional train occurred on days with lighter winds. Consequently, although emissions during periods of moderate-to-high dusting events can produce high emissions, the higher wind speeds also ensure that the emissions are rapidly dispersed leading to low, overall ambient concentration impacts with distance from the tracks.

The monitoring data at Agassiz indicated that the contribution of coal trains to ambient total suspended particulate (TSP, also referred to as PM) matter concentrations beside the railway tracks on a day with up to six moderate-to-heavy dusting coal trains was only on the order of 20- 30 µg/m3 over a 7-hour monitoring period at a distance of 4.5 m from the tracks. Total PM concentrations over a 24-hour averaging period would be much lower still because the contribution of these trains would be averaged over 24 hours instead of 7 hours. Thus, the total 3 PM contribution could be on the order of 6-9 µg/m on a 24-hour basis. The PM2.5 fraction in fugitive coal dust emissions is typically around 2%. However, for samples collected on days with high coal dust emissions from trains, up to 20% of the total PM concentration may consist of coal dust as PM2.5, meaning that the total contribution of fugitive coal dust to 24-hour average 3 PM2.5 concentrations at track-side would be less than 2 µg/m , even on a day with six moderate- to-heavy dusting coal trains. At a distance of 10 m from the tracks, the concentrations would be further reduced to a level of impact which falls within the ‘noise’ level of PM2.5 sampling instruments, meaning that the impact would be indistinguishable from background concentrations.

The 1984/85 study at Agassiz remains as the best estimate of the impact of fugitive coal dust from trains delivering coal to Roberts Bank.

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8.0 DTRRIP CONSTRUCTION PHASE EMISSIONS

The impacts of DTRRIP construction activity cannot be quantified in the absence of a detailed construction plan. As such, explicit impacts on air quality cannot be included in this assessment. In addition, any such air quality impacts would be temporary and low in magnitude, similar to that which was determined for the Deltaport Third Berth Project. However, it should be noted that air quality effects associated with construction activities would be temporary and low in magnitude, similar to those that were determined for the Deltaport Third Berth Project. As a result, air emission effects from construction activity have not been included in the assessment of regional trends, and regional-level impacts from the DTRRIP.

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9.0 REFERENCES

De Oliveira and Simonsen. 2003. Utilization of a method to estimate NO2 concentrations from a NOx simulation for thermal power plants. Air & Waste Management Association Conference and Exhibition (96th : 2003: San Diego, California).

Greater Vancouver Regional District 2002. Tsawwassen Particulate Air Quality Study, 2002. Prepared by the Air Quality Monitoring and Assessment Division, Policy and Planning Department, Burnaby, BC

Greater Vancouver Regional District 2006. Delta Air Quality Monitoring Study June 2004 - March 2006. Prepared by the Air Quality Policy and Management Division, Policy and Planning Department, Burnaby, BC

Hatch Limited 2011. Vancouver Airport Fuel Delivery Project Environmental Assessment Certificate Application. Section 5.4. Local and Regional Air Quality and Climate Assessment. Prepared for the Vancouver Airport Fuel Facilities Corporation.

James Bay Air Quality Study Team. 2008. James Bay Air Quality Study: Phase II. Prepared for the Vancouver Island Health Authority, Victoria, BC

Janssen et al. 1988. A classification of NO oxidation rates in power plant plumes based on atmospheric conditions. Atmospheric Environment, 22(1), 43-53.

Metro Vancouver 2007. 2005 Lower Fraser Valley Air Emissions Inventory & Forecast and Backcast. Prepared by the Air Quality Policy and Management Division, Policy and Planning Department, Burnaby, BC

Metro Vancouver 2011. 2010 Lower Fraser Valley Air Quality Summary. Prepared by the Policy and Planning Department, Burnaby, BC

Middleton, D.R., and A.R. Jones, A.L. Redington, D.J. Thomson, R.S. Sokhi, L. Luhana and B.E.A. Fisher 2008. Lagrangian Modelling of Plume Chemistry for Secondary Pollutants in Large Industrial Plumes. Atmospheric Environment 42(3):415-427.

SENES Consultants Limited 2003. Air Quality Impact Assessment Roberts Bank Superport & B.C. Ferry Terminal. Prepared for the Tsawwassen First Nation, Delta, BC

380220 - October 2012 9-1 SENES Consultants Limited Air Quality Assessment Deltaport Terminal, Road and Rail Improvement Project

SENES Consultants Limited 2006. Roadside Air Quality from Container Terminal Traffic. Addendum to the Air Quality and Human Health Assessment Deltaport Third Berth Project. Prepared for the Vancouver Fraser Port Authority (currently Port Metro Vancouver), Vancouver, B.C.

SENES Consultants Limited 2006. Air Dispersion Modelling Sensitivity Analysis. Addendum to the Air Quality and Human Health Assessment Deltaport Third Berth Project. Prepared for the Vancouver Fraser Port Authority (currently Port Metro Vancouver), Vancouver, BC

SENES Consultants Limited 2006. Air Emissions Inventories for Westshore Terminals, 2005- 2011. Prepared for Westshore Terminals Limited Partnership, Delta, BC

SENES Consultants Limited 2009. Air Quality in the Capitol Regional District. 2008. Prepared for the Capitol Regional District, Victoria, BC

SENES Consultants Limited 2011. Air Quality Impact Assessment for the City of Surrey Roberts Bank Rail Corridor. Prepared for EBA Engineering Consultants Limited, Vancouver, BC

SENES Consultants Limited 2011. Air Quality Impact Assessment for the RBRC Panorama Ridge Whistling Cessation Project. Prepared for EBA Engineering Consultants Limited, Vancouver, BC

Steyn, D.G, B.D. Ainslie, C. Reuten and P.L. Jackson 2011. A retrospective analysis of ozone formation in the Lower Fraser Valley, B.C. Report submitted to the Fraser Valley Regional District, Fraser Basin Council and Metro Vancouver.

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