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Morning Express 20 May 2019 BOCOM Int'l Research Morning Express 20 May 2019 Focus of the Day Hong Kong Property Sector Insights Global Stock Indices CCL set to surpass 210 by 2020E on reversed Rating: Market Perform Close 1D% YTD% expectations HSI 27,946 -0.71 8.60 HSCEI 10,689 -1.14 5.57 Philip Tse, CFA, FRM [email protected] SH A 3,019 -2.49 15.60 — In-depth sector report, including 3 company reports — SH B 293 -1.96 7.98 SZ A 1,603 -3.26 20.95 We identify several factors that continue to support HK residential property SZ B 951 -1.78 13.64 prices: (1) government-led shortage; (2) wealth effect from the stock market; (3) DJIA 25,764 -0.38 10.44 reversed mortgage rate expectations; and (4) healthy mortgage affordability and S&P 500 2,860 -0.58 14.07 low loan-to-value (LTV) ratio. We expect CCL to reach 200 by 2019 and surpass Nasdaq 7,816 -1.04 17.80 FTSE 7,349 -0.07 9.22 210 by 2020, up ~20% from the 1Q19 bottom. CAC 5,438 -0.18 14.96 We prefer developers with ample launch pipeline to catch the upbeat sentiment DAX 12,239 -0.58 15.91 and tap the purchasing power, which can ensure their earnings visibility for the Source: FactSet next 2-3 years. Key Commodity/Forex Indicators We resume coverage on three HK developers, with Buy ratings on SHKP (16 Close 3M% YTD% HK/TP HK$153.00), due to its ample launch pipeline and high-quality IPs with Brent 72.21 9.00 34.14 good earnings visibility, and on Henderson Land (HLD, 12 HK/TP HK$53.50), due Gold 1,274.50 -3.31 -0.30 Silver 14.48 -7.62 -6.37 to its rich saleable resources and potential catalysts from farmland conversion. Copper 6,025.00 -2.67 1.01 We are Neutral on New World Development (NWD, 17 HK/TP HK$13.01) as we JPY 109.98 0.53 -0.24 do not expect its next catalyst to emerge anytime soon. We rate the HK property GBP 1.27 -0.88 -0.01 sector Market Perform. EUR 1.12 -0.92 -2.38 bps change 3M 6M HIBOR 2.01 17.00 2.09 AAC Technologies 2018 HK US 10yr yield 2.39 -10.26 -22.16 Margins likely have bottomed; upgrade to Rating: Neutral↑ Source: FactSet Neutral HSI Technical CP: HK$ 43.05 TP: HK$ 45.00↑ Upside: +4.5% HSI 27,946.46 Chris Yim [email protected] 50D MA 29,480.12 1Q19 results better than feared: 1Q19 net profit fell 61% YoY, which was slightly 200D MA 27,674.63 14D RSI 32.60 ahead of the profit warning. The company attributed this to better-than- Short sell (HK$ m) 17,041 expected orders in late 1Q19. Source: FactSet Margins should have bottomed: We believe AAC’s margins will see sequential Hao Hong, CFA recovery in 2H19E backed by product mix upgrade (SLS penetration), efficiency Head of Research and yield improvement, and seasonality. Near term, we expect 2Q19 revenue to [email protected] grow 4% QoQ helped by Android flagship ramp-up and a stable outlook from Apple (per Apple 3QFY19 guidance). We expect GPM to remain soft in 2Q19. Upgrade to Neutral. We believe further deterioration in margins is unlikely but see the escalating trade conflict as a downside risk to end demand. Our new TP of HK$45.00 is based on 14x average 2019-20E EPS (previously HK$35.00 on 12x 2019E P/E). Upgrade from Sell to Neutral. Analyst certifications, disclosures and disclaimer at the back forms part of this report and must be read. Download our reports from Bloomberg: BOCM or https://research.bocomgroup.com 20 May 2019 Morning Express Baidu Inc BIDU US 1Q19 missed; downgrade on challenging ad Rating: Neutral↓ growth in 2019 CP: US$ 153.70 TP: US$ 165.00↓ Upside: +7.4% Connie Gu, CPA [email protected] 1Q19 revenue was in line; bottom-line missed consensus by 6%. Baidu saw accelerated traffic but was affected by healthcare ad adjustment and increased ad inventory. AI progress: DuerOS voice assistant installations reached 275m. Apollo saw enlarged adoption in various scenarios. Leveraging AI capability, Baidu cloud revenue grew rapidly to RMB1.3bn. We estimate 2019E cloud revenue to be RMB6.3bn, contributing 6% of total revenue. We expect short-term pressure for search and feed due to adjustment of healthcare interface, macro uncertainty, industry regulation, and increase of ad inventory in the feed industry. The resignation of Hailong Xiang will bring further uncertainty to the search business. As we are cautious on the ad industry, we cut Baidu Core revenue by 12%/15% in 2019E/20E on lower search revenue, partially offset by increase in cloud services. Given growing TAC, we cut 2019E/20E EPS and lower TP from US$232 to US$165. Downgrade to Neutral. iQIYI Inc IQ US 1Q19 bottom line beat; content cost below Rating: Buy estimate on delayed pipeline CP: US$ 20.38 TP: US$ 30.10↓ Upside: +47.7% Gigi Zhou [email protected] 1Q19 results: (1) Membership revenue was RMB3.4bn, up 64% YoY and in line. Subscribers reached 96.8m, primarily driven by The Legend of Haolan and Golden Eyes. (2) Ad revenue was RMB2.1bn, flat YoY and in line. (3) Other revenue came in at RMB983m, up 143% YoY and beating estimates on games. (4) Content cost at RMB5.3bn beat our estimated RMB6bn, partially due to delayed pipeline. 2Q19 outlook: We estimate revenue at RMB7.2bn, up 17% YoY (guidance: 12- 18%); membership revenue at RMB3.7bn; subscriber net adds at 4m; ad revenue at RMB2.2bn, up 3% QoQ/ down 16% YoY; content distribution/other revenue at RMB315m/968m, down 42%/up 80% YoY; content cost as percentage of revenue at 77%. Valuation: We cut 2019E/20E revenue by 1%/2% and narrow 2019E non-GAAP net loss margin by 1ppt. We trim TP from US$30.40 to US$30.10, implying 2019/20E P/S of 4.7x/3.9x. Maintain Buy. Download our reports from Bloomberg: BOCM or https://research.bocomgroup.com 2 20 May 2019 Morning Express Internet Sector Online video monthly monitor (April 2019) Rating: Outperform Connie Gu, CPA [email protected] In April, iQiyi’s MAU continued to lead. Given weak viewership seasonality in 2Q19, Tencent Video’s MAU stayed flattish while other platforms’ MAUs fell slightly in April. Tencent Video led in downloads and gross billing rankings thanks to “Game of Thrones” Season 8. Tencent Video enjoyed higher content popularity last month: (1) For new exclusive dramas, popularity shares of Tencent Video/iQiyi/Mango TV/Youku were 45%/20%/9%/8%, and “Game of Thrones Season 8” on Tencent Video was ranked first. (2) For self-produced variety shows, Tencent Video/iQiyi achieved popularity shares of 57%/43%. iQiyi’s original variety show “I am Singer/Song-Writer” acquired fewer brand advertisers than “Idol producer II” in 1Q19 due to premature brand effect. We estimate the ad revenue of iQiyi may come under pressure in 2Q19. iQiyi’s original drama “The Thunder” has been a big hit in May. Maintain Outperform sector rating and top Buy on iQiyi (IQ US). Internet Sector Weekly As of 17 May 2019 Rating: Outperform Connie Gu, CPA [email protected] Last week, we initiated coverage on Meituan Dianping with a Buy rating. We expect the company to turn around to profitability in 2020. Alibaba’s 4QFY19 earnings beat on cost control; we expect FY20 revenue to grow 33%. Tencent’s ad revenue missed in 1Q19; we expect its game business to recover in 2Q19. NetEase’s 1Q19 earnings beat on lower marketing cost, while game business remains uncertain in 2019. Baidu’s 1Q19 results missed; we expect continuous pressure on ad growth in 2019. iQIYI’s 1Q19 bottom line beat as content cost was below estimate due to delayed pipeline. Kingsoft’s cloud business beat in 1Q19 in terms of revenue and margin; we upgraded the stock to Buy. April video data watch: In terms of new online dramas and online variety shows, Tencent Video/iQIYI had popularity shares of 45%/20% and 57%/43%, respectively. Maintain Outperform sector rating and top Buy on iQIYI (IQ US). Download our reports from Bloomberg: BOCM or https://research.bocomgroup.com 3 20 May 2019 Morning Express Economic data releases for this week – US Economic data releases for this week – China Date Event Survey Prior Date Event Survey Prior 21 May Existing Home sales (m) 5.35 5.21 - - - - 22 May MBA mortgage applications (%) -- -0.60 23 May Initial jobless claims (k) 215 212 23 May New Home sales (k) 675 692 24 May Durable goods order (%) -2.00 2.60 Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg BOCOM Research latest reports Date Report Analyst 17 May Baidu Inc (BIDU US) - 1Q19 missed; downgrade on challenging ad growth in 2019 Connie Gu, CPA, Brandy Sun, Gigi Zhou 17 May Hong Kong Property Sector - CCL set to surpass 210 by 2020E on reversed expectations Philip Tse, CFA, FRM, Carmen Wong, Jennifer Zhang 17 May iQIYI Inc (IQ US) - 1Q19 bottom line beat; content cost below estimate on delayed pipeline Gigi Zhou, Connie Gu, CPA, Brandy Sun 17 May Property Sector Weekly - As of 16 May 2019 Philip Tse, CFA, FRM, Jennifer Zhang, Carmen Wong 17 May Healthcare Sector Insights - Consolidation empowers distributor giants; Top Buy SH Pharma Kelvin Chen, PhD, Li Zhao, PhD, Kent Lin, Mengmeng Xi 17 May Insurance Sector Monthly - ST stock prices hit by external factors, valuation recovery goes on Li Wan, CFA, FRM 16 May NetEase Inc (NTES US) - 1Q19 beat on lower marketing cost; games still uncertain in 2019 Brandy Sun, Connie Gu, CPA, Gigi Zhou 16 May Technology Sector - Choppy semis recovery in 2H19E; downgrade Hua Hong Chris Yim, Xinhe Deng 16 May Alibaba Group (BABA US) - 4QFY19 beat on cost control; FY20E revenue to grow 33% Connie Gu, CPA, Brandy Sun, Gigi Zhou 16 May Tencent Holdings (700 HK) - Ad missed in 1Q19, game to recover in 2Q19E Connie Gu, CPA, Brandy Sun, Gigi Zhou 16 May Renewable Energy Sector Weekly - As of 15 May 2019 Louis Sun, Bob Wen 15 May Automobile Sector Monthly - April PV sales
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