Reforming Baltimore's Mayoral Elections

1 The Abell Report Published by the Abell Foundation May 2020 Volume 33, Number 5 Reforming Baltimore’s Mayoral Elections: Could it Increase Electoral Competition, Raise Participation, and Improve Political Representation? by Christopher Warshaw Abstract of Baltimore’s municipal elections, including a) establishing nonpartisan elections; b) By June 2, voters across the city of Baltimore implementing ranked choice voting (RCV); will cast their ballots in the city’s Democratic and c) switching Baltimore’s primary election and Republican mayoral primary elections. to a system where all candidates run in The current system used for Baltimore’s one primary and the top two vote-getters mayoral elections leads to several potential advance to the general election. Overall, the problems for political representation and report concludes that the “top-two primary” is participation. First, the primary elections can the reform most likely to improve Baltimore’s be won with a narrow plurality, and not a mayoral elections. This reform would increase majority, potentially enabling someone to win turnout and electoral competition. It is also with a third or less of the total vote. Second, likely to improve political representation there is unlikely to be a competitive general in Baltimore. Second, RCV, as it is newly election under the current system. The implemented in New York City, should be lack of competition in the general election analyzed carefully to see whether it could be probably exacerbates polarization and combined with the top-two primary to choose deprives many voters of a voice in municipal the candidates that advance to the general politics. Third, only registered partisans can election. And third, state legislation enabling vote in the primary elections, which leaves election reform should be pursued to give unaffiliated and third-party voters unable to Baltimore voters the opportunity to choose participate. This report considers a number an alternative to the current election process. of reforms that could improve the functioning Abell Foundation www.abell.org @abellfoundation P: 410-547-1300 May 2020 2 Executive Summary one. This means that the roughly 50,000 unaffiliated and third-party Baltimore voters By June 2, voters across the city of Baltimore cannot participate in the mayoral primary. will cast their ballots in the city’s Democratic and Republican mayoral primary elections. This report examines the efficacy of a number The candidate winning the plurality of the vote of potential institutional reforms that could in each party’s primary will proceed to the improve the functioning of Baltimore’s general election in November. mayoral elections and, potentially, other municipal elections. The current system used for Baltimore’s 1. Partisan vs. nonpartisan elections: mayoral elections leads to several potential Baltimore’s municipal officials are problems for political representation and elected via partisan elections. That is, participation. First, the primary, which is the candidates need to win their party’s key election in most municipal races, can be primary to get onto the general won with a narrow plurality of the vote, or election ballot. One possible reform a very low threshold of votes.1 For example, would be to switch to nonpartisan Catherine Pugh won the 2016 Democratic municipal elections. There is some primary with just 37% of the vote, and polls evidence that this reform could show that leading candidates in this year’s improve the responsiveness of Democratic primary are favored by less than elected officials. However, academic 20% of primary voters.2 This means that a studies also indicate that switching candidate who is supported by just a small to nonpartisan elections could make fraction of Baltimore’s voters could ultimately it harder for citizens to determine become the city’s next mayor. which candidate represents their policy Second, because voter registrations are preferences, and it could decrease overwhelmingly dominated by a single party voter turnout. As a result, this report there is unlikely to be a competitive general does not recommend a switch to election under the current system. The nonpartisan elections. winner of the Democratic primary will be the 2. First-past-the-post vs. RCV: overwhelming favorite in the general election Baltimore’s municipal elections due to Baltimore’s strong Democratic lean. (including both the primary and The lack of competition in the general election general elections) are currently means that the roughly 100,000 voters that conducted via a first-past-the-post participate in the general election, but not system where the candidate who the primary, have little voice in Baltimore’s receives the most votes, even if it’s mayoral elections. Moreover, it means that not an absolute majority, wins the Democratic candidates only have to appeal to election. Ranked choice voting (RCV) is primary voters in order to become the favorite a reform that would enable voters to to become the next mayor. As a result, they rank their choices for mayors. If there can focus their campaigns on a small slice is no majority winner after counting of the population without worrying about first choices, the race is decided by an appealing to the wider Baltimore electorate. “instant runoff,” which continues Third, only registered partisans can vote until one candidate obtains a “50% in the primary elections. In other words, plus one vote” majority of the total only registered Democrats can vote in the votes still outstanding. This ensures Democratic primary and only registered that a candidate could not win the Republicans can vote in the Republican election with just a narrow plurality. 3 RCV could reduce the negativity their partisan affiliation on the ballot. of campaigns and help insure that But all the candidates would run in a candidates cast a wide net among single primary election (rather than Baltimore City voters as they would separate Democratic and Republican be competing for second and third primaries), and the top two candidates place votes, as well as first place. would advance to the general election. However, the evidence on RCV is still California and Washington have evolving. This report recommends that recently adopted this approach for Baltimore closely study the growing their state legislative and congressional academic literature on RCV, and, elections. This reform would enable especially, the upcoming rollout of RCV all voters to participate in the primary elections in New York City and other election, including voters registered as large cities with partisan elections, unaffiliated and with a non-major like Baltimore’s, to determine whether party. Thus, it would likely increase it could improve the functioning of voter turnout and could increase Baltimore’s mayoral elections. electoral competition. 3. Primary type: Baltimore’s municipal Although a top-two primary would primary elections are conducted via probably result in two Democratic a closed primary that is only open mayoral candidates advancing to the to registered voters affiliated with a general election, both candidates major political party. So Democrats can would be incentivized to compete for only vote in the Democratic primary the support of the largest number of and Republicans in the Republican voters in the general election, making primary. Unaffiliated voters, including the winner more representative of 4 Independents, cannot vote in either. Baltimore voters’ preferences. This Since the Democratic primary is the could improve the functioning of only election that usually matters Baltimore’s municipal government. in Baltimore, this means that a In addition, Baltimoreans would have candidate could become mayor by much more time to evaluate these receiving support from just a small candidates, and a larger electorate fraction of Baltimore’s voters. As a would select which one becomes result, the majority of voters can feel Baltimore’s next mayor. As a result, disenfranchised after the primary the top-two primary could improve because they voted for another political representation in Baltimore’s candidate or because they are part municipal government. of the 21% of voters who are not In order to implement election registered Democrats and were not reform in Baltimore City, the report able to vote in the Democratic primary. recommends that state legislation be Essentially this is a one and done pursued to enable Baltimore City to put election where the primary largely election reform to the voters. determines who will be the next mayor. To address this problem, this report recommends that Baltimore consider switching to a top-two primary election.3 In a top-two primary system, candidates would continue to show Abell Foundation www.abell.org @abellfoundation P: 410-547-1300 May 2020 4 Background on Baltimore’s Mayoral Elections Table 1: Voter Registration in Baltimore (November 2018) Baltimore is an overwhelmingly Democratic city. There are about 10 times more registered Registered Democrats in Baltimore than registered Party Voters 2 Republicans (see Table 1). This Democratic advantage is reflected in elections up and Democrats 305,704 down the ballot. Hillary Clinton received about 85% of the vote in Baltimore in the Republicans 30,873 2016 presidential election.5 The Democratic candidates in all of Baltimore’s recent mayoral Libertarian 1,475 election have also won by huge margins, and Green 1,264 all 15 members of Baltimore’s city council are Democrats. Other 1,768 Table 2 shows the results of the last five Unaffiliated 47,859 elections for Baltimore mayor. In each election, the Democratic candidate won Total 388,943 an overwhelming victory. The Republican candidate’s best performance came in 2011, Table 2: General Election Results in Baltimore Mayoral Races Year Candidate Party Votes Vote Share 1999 Martin O’Malley Democrat 87,607 90% 1999 David F. Tufaro Republican 9,207 10% 2004 Martin O’Malley Democrat 173,030 87% 2004 Elbert R. Henderson Republican 24,445 12% 2007 Sheila Dixon Democrat 36,726 86% 2007 Elbert R.

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