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Gonzales Baltimore City Poll May 2019 Gonzales Baltimore City Poll Gonzales Poll Gonzales Baltimore City Poll Table of Contents Background and Methodology ............................................................................................ 3 Synopsis ............................................................................................................................... 4 Gonzales Baltimore Poll Results - May 2019 ...................................................................... 6 Appendix A: Data Tables .................................................................................................. 10 QUESTION: Mayor Catherine Pugh Resignation ........................................................ 10 QUESTION: 2020 Baltimore City Mayoral Election ..................................................... 11 QUESTION: Direction of Baltimore City .................................................................... 12 QUESTION: Baltimore Compared to 10 Years Ago .................................................... 13 QUESTION: Quality of Public Education ................................................................... 14 QUESTION: Attempts To Reduce Crime .................................................................... 16 Appendix B: Baltimore Poll Sample Demographics ......................................................... 18 2 | P a g e Gonzales Baltimore City Poll, Embargo: 12:01 a.m., Wednesday, May 8th, 2019 Gonzales Baltimore City Poll Background and Methodology Patrick E. Gonzales graduated magna cum laude from the University of Baltimore with a degree in political science. His career in the field of public opinion research began in the mid-1980s as an analyst with Mason-Dixon Opinion Research. During this time, Mr. Gonzales helped develop, craft and implement election surveys and exit polls for television and radio in the Baltimore-Washington D.C. metro area. Patrick Gonzales has polled and analyzed well over a thousand elections in Maryland and across the country since that time. Furthermore, Mr. Gonzales and his associates have conducted numerous market research projects, crafting message development plans and generating strategy blueprints for businesses and organizations throughout the state. Over his 35 years conducting public opinion polls, Patrick Gonzales has been widely recognized by his peers for his ability to conduct unbiased surveys, and analyze the results in an impartial, evenhanded manner. Mr. Gonzales frequently appears on radio and television in the Baltimore-D.C. region as a guest commentator. This poll was conducted by Gonzales Research & Media Services from April 29th through May 1st, 2019. A total of 329 registered voters in Baltimore, Maryland, who indicated that they are likely to vote in next year’s Democratic primary election for mayor, were queried by live telephone interviews, utilizing both landline and cell phone numbers. A cross-section of interviews was conducted throughout the City, reflecting primary election voting patterns. The margin of error (MOE), per accepted statistical standards, is a range of plus or minus 5.5 percentage points. If the entire population was surveyed, there is a 95% probability that the true numbers would fall within this range. 3 | P a g e Gonzales Baltimore City Poll, Embargo: 12:01 a.m., Wednesday, May 8th, 2019 Gonzales Baltimore City Poll Synopsis Rome burned…Nero fiddled. Baltimore, home to my alma mater and deep in the heart of the “Land of Pleasant Living,” is suffering. Two-thirds of its citizens believe the City is moving in the wrong direction; three-quarters are dissatisfied with the quality of education coming from its public schools; and nearly nine-out-of-ten residents are fed up with the efforts to reduce crime in Charm City. Sixty-three percent of Baltimore voters thought that Mayor Catherine Pugh made the right decision by resigning from office in light of the controversy surrounding her administration. The City’s now in a holding pattern until April 2020, when Democratic primary voters will exert their will and select the next mayor (the November general election will be a mere formality). And, right now, the contest is wide open. Among likely primary voters, 23% say they would vote for Sheila Dixon, 19% say they would vote for Jack Young, 18% say they’d vote for Marilyn Mosby, 16% say they support Thiru Vignarajah, and 24% are undecided. If former Mayor Sheila Dixon were to enter the race, she would begin with an advantage over Acting Mayor Jack Young with two crucial voting blocs: older voters, where she has an 8-point margin, and African-American voters, among whom she enjoys an 11-point edge. If State’s Attorney Marilyn Mosby decided to enter the race for mayor, she might be able to energize Baltimore’s younger voters, as a plurality of voters under the age of 55 already favor her over any other candidate included in this poll. Former prosecutor Thiru Vignarajah gets more than twice the number of white votes (35%) compared to any other candidate included in this poll. And the buzz has just begun – 2018 gubernatorial nominee Ben Jealous; Councilman and 2018 lieutenant governor candidate Brandon Scott; former police spokesman T.J. Smith; State Senator Jill Carter…all are being mentioned as having a possible interest in entering the campaign. 4 | P a g e Gonzales Baltimore City Poll, Embargo: 12:01 a.m., Wednesday, May 8th, 2019 Gonzales Baltimore City Poll Whoever becomes Baltimore’s next elected mayor starts off with a formidable challenge. Citywide, only 27% of voters feel that things in Baltimore are moving in the right direction, while a disquieting 63% say things in Baltimore are on the wrong track. Disaffection spans all segments of the City. A substantial majority of Baltimore residents, not surprisingly, think things today are worse than they were ten years ago. When asked if “things in Baltimore City are better than they were 10 years ago, worse than they were 10 years ago, or about the same as 10 years ago,” 57% of residents say things are worse, a meager 15% say better, and 28% say things are the same. Sixty percent of voters under the age of fifty-five think things are worse today than they were 10 years ago. Only 20% of voters are satisfied with public education in Baltimore - a measly 5% “very satisfied” - while 73% are dissatisfied with the quality of Baltimore public education. Among voters under the age of fifty-five, 75% are dissatisfied with the quality of public education in Baltimore City. Furthermore, just 12% of City voters are satisfied with attempts to reduce crime in Baltimore, while a devastating 83% are dissatisfied with attempts to reduce crime. Black or white, young or old, male or female…all are exasperated with the attempts being made to reduce crime in Baltimore. A hundred years ago Baltimore native H. L. Mencken declared, “The whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed…by menacing it with an endless series of hobgoblins, all of them imaginary.” Today, the problems are all too real. No community can prosper when an overwhelming proportion of its members live with unease and frustration. 5 | P a g e Gonzales Baltimore City Poll, Embargo: 12:01 a.m., Wednesday, May 8th, 2019 Gonzales Baltimore City Poll Gonzales Baltimore Poll Results - May 2019 Mayor Catherine Pugh Resignation (Phone interviews were completed last Wednesday, the day before Mayor Pugh resigned) Among Baltimore City Democratic primary voters, 63% thought that Mayor Catherine Pugh should resign from office in light of the controversy surrounding her administration, while 23% said she should not resign, and 14% offered no opinion. By gender, 57% of women felt that Pugh should’ve resigned, while 26% thought she shouldn’t; 74% of men believed Mayor Pugh should’ve resigned her position and 18% felt she shouldn’t have resigned. Fifty-one percent of black voters felt that Mayor Pugh’s decision was the correct one, compared t0 85% of white voters who felt that way. 2020 Mayoral Democratic Primary Election A year before the April 2020 primary, the contest to see who will be Baltimore’s next elected mayor is wide open. Among likely Democratic primary voters, 23% say they would vote for Sheila Dixon, 19% say they would vote for Jack Young, 18% say they’d vote for Marilyn Mosby, 16% say they support Thiru Vignarajah, and 24% are undecided. The results by gender, race, and age: Mayoral Election Dixon Young Mosby Vignarajah Men 23% 20% 13% 14% Women 23% 18% 21% 17% White 9% 17% 3% 35% African-American 31% 20% 24% 6% Under 55 19% 20% 21% 18% 55 and older 26% 18% 15% 14% Former Mayor Dixon bests Acting Mayor Young among two key blocs – older voters (8- point margin) and African-Americans (11-point lead). 6 | P a g e Gonzales Baltimore City Poll, Embargo: 12:01 a.m., Wednesday, May 8th, 2019 Gonzales Baltimore City Poll If State’s Attorney Marilyn Mosby were to take a shot at becoming mayor, she might be able to energize the City’s younger voters, as a plurality of voters under the age of 55 already favor her over the other possible candidates included in this poll. Thiru Vignarajah, at 35%, gets more than twice the share of the white vote compared to other candidates. Direction of the City Whoever wins the mayoral election next year will likely begin - from day one - leading a collection of dispirited constituents. Citywide, only 27% of voters feel that things in Baltimore are moving in the right direction, while a distressing 63% say things in the city are on the wrong track, with 10% offering no opinion. Dismay is across the board in
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