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Edgecast Path LOS ANGELES | SAN FRANCISCO | NEW YORK | BOSTON | SEATTLE | MINNEAPOLIS | MILWAUKEE July 29, 2013 Michael Pachter Rohit Chopra (213) 688-4474 (212) 668-9871 [email protected] [email protected] PRISM … Progress Report for Internet and Social Media In This Issue: EdgeCast, Path EdgeCast Content distribution network estimated to be fifth largest in the industry, with Twitter, Yahoo and Hulu for customers. Doubling revenue each year, with approximately $100 million annual run rate. Rapidly growing industry and solid customer base should provide a tailwind for growth. Path Alternative social network with no advertising, small networks and simple design. Saw accelerated user growth after adding direct messaging feature. Some signs indicate difficulty maintaining user growth and ensuring privacy. THE INFORMATION HEREIN IS ONLY FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS AS DEFINED IN RULE 501 OF REGULATION D UNDER THE SECURITIES ACT OF 1933 OR INSTITUTIONAL INVESTORS WEDBUSH PRIVATE COMPANY STRATEGIES GROUP Wedbush Securities does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. Thus, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. Please see page 10 of this report for analyst certification and important disclosure information. EdgeCast EdgeCast provides software and services in the developing market of content distribution networks (CDNs). CDNs are a crucial element in the efficient operation of Internet services, acting as channels for online content publishers and managing electronic storage and routing of delay-sensitive material to ensure speedy and reliable delivery of the content to end-users. For example, if a news publication in New York City creates a video, EdgeCast can host the video on multiple servers throughout the U.S., relieving the publisher’s server of distribution duty, keeping the content closer to viewers on the West Coast. This improves the availability of the video, and speeds loading when users request it. Accelerating delivery by a fraction of a second or improving reliability by a percentage point may seem trivial, but such improvements are crucial to web-based companies. Google (GOOG) found that a half-second delay in search response equaled a 20% decrease in ad revenue; and Yahoo (YHOO) found that improving response time by 0.4 seconds yielded a 9% increase in traffic (via Techweb.com). The issue will become more critical as more content is consumed online, more data is stored in the cloud, and content files become larger from higher definition video and sound. Content distribution networks incorporate both hardware and software. Data centers and networks hold and distribute the content, while software manages the packaging and routing of the data. EdgeCast focuses on the software aspect, contracting with storage providers and telecommunications carriers to handle hardware. The firm claims its software allows its network to operate 25% faster than competing CDNs. It also offers analytic services and additional solutions for gaming platforms, e-commerce websites and software distribution. EdgeCast was founded in 2006 in Santa Monica, CA by Alex Kazerani, James Segil and Phil Goldsmith. According to an interview with SoCalTech.com, Segil says the company focuses on clients with “mission-critical” web requirements; companies that are primarily Internet-driven. These customers include Twitter, Yahoo, Pinterest, LinkedIn (LNKD) and Hulu. Other large accounts include Mercedes-Benz, JetBlue (JBLU), Kellogg’s (K) and Sony (SNE). According to Segil, the founders’ experience in web hosting has allowed them to scale the business, while maintaining high performance. He also claims that customer service is superior, A simplified example of a content distribution network. allowing for faster ramp-up and greater flexibility for clients’ IT departments. EdgeCast has been attracting clients quickly, increasing customer count from 1,000 at year-end 2009 to over 6,000 currently. Employee headcount has expanded as well, from 100 in 2011 to 300 now. Leadership Alex Kazerani co-founded EdgeCast and is now Chairman and CEO. He previously co-founded KnowledgBase and HostPro, both web and database hosting companies that he eventually sold. He is also a partner in several venture capital funds and a board member at Web.com (WWWW). President James Segil handles business development and often acts as the spokesman for the company. Prior to EdgeCast, he was President and COO at KnowledgeBase, then became Vice President of Business Development at Talisma Corporation when it acquired KnowledgeBase. Previously, he was the COO of Virtualis, and then became COO of Allegiance Telecom (ALGX) when it merged with Virtualis. Phil Goldsmith is the Chief Revenue Officer, and worked with Mr. Kazerani at Talisma, KnowledgeBase and HostPro. The CTO is Jay Sataka, who co-founded IP3 Networks. Mr. Sakata was also the network architect at HostPro and Internet service provider iWay Broadband. Market The market for content delivery networks is heavily concentrated—In April 2012 it was estimated that 85% of the market is controlled by the top three firms: Akamai (AKAM), Limelight Networks (LLNW) and Level 3 Communications (LVLT) (according to RCR Wireless). The value of the global CDN market was estimated by BCC Research to be $3.6 billion in 2012, with $1.9 billion coming from North America and $1.1 billion from the Asia-Pacific region. The global market is projected to grow rapidly (13.9% annually) to $6.9 billion by 2017. Asia-Pacific is expected to grow faster than North America, with 14% CAGR vs. 13.65% for North American (see chart below). 2 CDN Market 2012 1.1 1.9 0.6 2017 2.1 3.6 1.2 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Billions of Dollars Asia-Pacific North America Other Source: BCC Research, Wedbush Much of this growth is expected to come from delivery of video, which is expected to increase in volume by more than 30% over the five-year period to 2017, fueled by consumers’ growing appetite for in-home streaming and mobile video. As this growth has become apparent, other companies have begun to enter the market, including large firms that offer similar products and services. Amazon has extended its cloud storage capabilities to content distribution, and Microsoft now offers CDN services under its Azure brand. Rackspace and Google have also entered the space. Dell entered the market in April of 2012 by partnering with EdgeCast, with the former providing hardware and EdgeCast contributing software. EdgeCast is believed to be the fourth largest company in the space, behind the three largest services and CDNetworks, a South Korean company traded publicly on the Korean stock exchange. Publicly traded Akamai, which had sales of $1.47 billion over the past four quarters, is the pioneer of the industry. It was founded in 1998 by a group including an MIT professor and graduate student; the two developed algorithms to dynamically route online content and relieve Internet congestion. Over the past five years, Akamai’s revenue has almost doubled, and it now employs 3,000 people. Limelight Networks was founded in 2001; it is also publicly traded, but unlike Akamai, it is not profitable. It earned $181 million over the previous four quarters (up 47% over five years) and has approximately 500 employees. Level 3 is a multi-billion dollar corporation that provides multiple networking products and services. Although it does not typically break out revenue from content distribution, the company disclosed in April 2012 that it expected global CDN sales to be approximately $600 million for fiscal year 2012 (via RCR Wireless). Financials EdgeCast has disclosed approximate growth rates through press releases over the last several years. (Dollars in Millions) Akamai Limelight EdgeCast According to these announcements, the company roughly Revenue $1,470 $181 $100 doubled revenue in 2011, and doubled again in 2012. It also claimed that 2012 was its third consecutive year of Employees 3,000 500 300 profitability. In a July 2013 interview with The Wall Street Rev/Emp $0.49 $0.36 $0.33 Journal, EdgeCast President Segil disclosed the company’s revenue was at a $100 million annual run rate. According to an article from Seeking Alpha, the company Est. Sales NTM $1,664 $194 $140 $200 can expect a run rate of $140 million for 2014, suggesting Enterprise Value $ 7,499 $120 $1,912 $6,830 a growth rate of 40%. The table at right shows how these numbers stack up against publicly traded, competition. EV/Sales NTM 4.51 0.62 13.66 34.15 Because Limelight is not profitable, the most appropriate Growth Rate 13.2% 7.2% 40.0% 100% pure-play comparison is Akamai. The company currently carries an enterprise value of $7.5 billion with sales EV/S NTM/G 34.1 8.6 estimated to reach $1.66 billion over the next 12 months Source: Thomson Reuters, Company data, Wedbush (NTM), implying a growth rate of 13.2%. Taking the EV/sales NTM ratio and dividing by the growth rate, we calculate that Akamai carries a growth adjusted EV/sales NTM ratio of 34.1. Applying that ratio to a range of revenue and growth rates, we project an enterprise value between $1.9 and $6.83 billion. Funding EdgeCast received $4 million in Series A capital in its first funding round in June of 2007. Investors included Mark Amin and Jon Feltheimer. Six months later, the company received an additional $6 million from Steamboat Ventures in a Series B round. In April 2010, Menlo Ventures contributed $10 million in Series C funding; and in July of this year, EdgeCast received $54 million from existing 3 investors Menlo Ventures and Steamboat, as well as Performance Equity Management.
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