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Energy Transitions in U.S. History, 1800–2019

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Energy Transitions in U.S. History, 1800–2019 Supplementary Information for Energy Transitions in U.S. History, 1800{2019 Robert Suits,1 Nathan Matteson,2 and Elisabeth Moyer3 November 2020 Center for Robust Decision-making on Climate and Energy Policy University of Chicago Affiliations: 1University of Chicago, Department of History 2DePaul University, College of Computing and Digital Media; 3University of Chicago, Department of the Geophysical Sciences About RDCEP The Center brings together experts in economics, physical sciences, energy technologies, law, computational mathematics, statistics, and computer science to undertake a series of tightly connected research programs aimed at improving the computational models needed to evaluate climate and energy policies, and to make robust decisions based on outcomes. For more information please contact us at [email protected] or visit our website: www.rdcep.org RDCEP is funded by a grant from the National Science Foundation (NSF) #SES-1463644 through the Decision Making Under Uncertainty (DMUU) program. Center for Robust Decision-making on Climate and Energy Policy University of Chicago 5734 South Ellis Ave. Chicago, IL 60637 Email: [email protected] Contact: [email protected] Robert Suits: [email protected] Elisabeth Moyer: [email protected] This paper is available as a preprint. Please cite as: Robert M. Suits, Nathan J. Matteson, and Elisabeth J. Moyer. \Energy Transitions in U.S. History, 1800{2019." RDCEP Working Paper Series, 2020. Submitted to PNAS. c 2020 Robert Suits, Nathan Matteson, and Elisabeth J. Moyer. All rights reserved. Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed herein are solely those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the policy or position of the United States Government nor any agency thereof, Argonne National Laboratory, the University of Chicago or RDCEP. 11 Contents 12 1 Introduction and Overview 4 13 1.1 Overview and Approach.................................................4 14 1.2 Summary of Results...................................................5 15 2 Overview of Sources 8 16 2.1 Sources by Period.....................................................8 17 2.2 Details on Selected Sources...............................................9 18 3 Results: Fuel Use of Individual Sectors 10 19 3.1 Residential/Commercial................................................. 10 20 3.1.1 Disaggregating the Residential and Commercial Sectors, pre-1949...................... 10 21 3.1.2 Transitions within the Residential/Commercial Sector............................ 11 22 3.2 Agricultural........................................................ 12 23 3.3 Industrial......................................................... 14 24 3.4 Transportation...................................................... 15 25 3.5 Electricity Generation.................................................. 16 26 3.5.1 Efficiency of electricity generation over time.................................. 17 27 4 Results: Energy Intensity of the Economy 20 28 4.1 Energy Intensity Comparisons.............................................. 20 29 4.2 U.S. Energy Intensity without Residential Use..................................... 23 30 5 Results: Omitted Energy Flows 24 31 5.1 Human Labor....................................................... 24 32 5.2 Natural Ice........................................................ 25 33 6 Definitions 26 34 6.1 Sectors........................................................... 26 35 6.2 Fuels............................................................ 26 36 6.2.1 Biomass...................................................... 26 37 6.2.2 Electricity Generation from Renewables.................................... 27 38 6.3 Physical Assumptions.................................................. 27 39 7 Notes on Estimates 28 40 7.1 Summary: disaggregating early uses of coal, wood, and petroleum......................... 29 41 7.2 Industrial combustion fuels, 1800–1910......................................... 35 42 7.2.1 Iron and steel................................................... 36 43 7.2.2 Brick and tile................................................... 37 44 7.2.3 Glass....................................................... 37 45 7.2.4 Cement...................................................... 38 46 7.3 Railroads......................................................... 39 47 7.4 Steamboats and ocean-going steamships........................................ 40 48 7.5 Fuel wood......................................................... 42 49 7.6 Animal feed........................................................ 42 50 7.7 Biological Oils...................................................... 44 51 7.8 Water Power, Mechanical................................................ 44 52 7.9 Wind Power, Mechanical................................................. 45 53 7.9.1 Sailing Ships................................................... 45 54 7.9.2 Wind Pumps................................................... 45 55 7.10 Natural Gas........................................................ 46 56 7.11 Petroleum......................................................... 46 57 7.12 Electricity......................................................... 50 58 7.13 Post-1949 notes...................................................... 52 59 7.13.1 Adjustment of EIA non-thermal renewables................................... 52 60 7.13.2 Home generation of wind and solar....................................... 52 61 7.13.3 Agriculture, post-1949.............................................. 53 62 7.14 Handling the EIA/Non-EIA Data Discontinuity, 1949................................. 53 2 of 60 Robert Suits, Nathan Matteson, and Elisabeth Moyer 63 8 Validation 54 64 8.1 EIA Estimates, pre-1949................................................. 54 65 8.2 Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory Sankey Diagrams............................. 57 66 8.3 Error Estimation..................................................... 57 67 9 References 58 Robert Suits, Nathan Matteson, and Elisabeth Moyer 3 of 60 68 1. Introduction and Overview 69 1.1. Overview and Approach. This document details our historical study of sectoral energy use and transitions in the United 70 States between 1800 and 2019. We highlight the key findings from this data, describe the key sources, describe estimates for 71 each individual fuel stream in detail, and show validation exercises. The dataset is displayed as an animated Sankey diagram 72 at a companion website, http://us.sankey.rdcep.org/. 73 The United States provides a unique test case for examining energy transitions: relatively early detailed national economic 74 records and a relatively late wood to coal transition mean that we can explore the historical dynamics of energy transitions in 75 detail. Previous studies have estimated historical U.S. energy use by fuel type, allowing understanding of the contribution of 76 different fuels to the energy economy, but studies do not typically evaluate what these fuels have been used for. Energy use by 77 sector is compiled by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) for years after 1949, but no studies catalog sectoral use in 78 earlier periods. This omission prevents distinguishing between, for example, coal burnt in home stoves in the 1800s, in factories 79 and locomotives in the early 1900s, or in power plants for electricity generation in the 2000s. 80 Our goal is to provide a systematic assessment of the evolution of U.S. energy use by sector from 1800 to the present, 81 merging data from different sources with minimal bias. We divide the economy into four sectors: 1) industrial (manufacturing 82 and processing), 2) transportation (between sites rather than on-site), 3) agricultural (on-field), and 4) residential/commercial 83 (domestic spaces and places for the exchange of goods and services). We also make a preliminary attempt at disaggregating 84 historical residential and commercial use prior to 1949. (The EIA provides post-1949 disaggregation.) Sectors are defined in 85 detail in Section ?? and the residential / commercial split is described in Section 3.1.1. In tracking sectoral energy use, we 86 assign each sector its share of electricity waste heat, to correctly reflect its contribution to national primary energy use. 87 We catalogue primary energy inputs: biomass (fuelwood, biological oils and alcohols, and feed for draft animals), the fossil 88 fuels (coal, petroleum, and natural gas), other heat sources (nuclear fission, geothermal), and wind, solar, and hydropower. We 89 also catalogue these fuels’ transformation into electricity. We do not count human labor, for reasons detailed in Section 5.1. For 90 consistency in definition of primary energy inputs, draft animals are counted by their feed input, and nuclear and geothermal 91 electricity by their heat input, i.e. we divide their output of electric power by the assumed efficiency of their turbogenerators. 92 While many other Sankey studies assign non-thermal electricity (by hydro, wind, or solar) a similar efficiency to thermal 93 generation, this practice makes no sense for deep historical studies since the contribution of renewables would then vary 94 arbitrarily with the evolution of engines and turbines. In this work we therefore book-keep hydro, wind, and solar as having 95 efficiency 1. This choice understates the relative contribution of renewables to electricity generation when shown as primary 96 energy, but when computing fuel shares for the electrical sector, we book-keep their respective
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