Early Warnirg and Response: Why the International Community Failed to Prevent :the Genocide

HOWARD ADELMAN, York University, Toronto, and ASTRI SUHRKE, Christian Michelsen Institute, Norway

'Western leadership .. . has proclaimed moral indifference to be its decent Christian right' jotin le Carr6 (1995, p. 213).

The enormity of the genocide in demands that it be subjected to searching enquiry and that members of the international community, collectfuely and indiaidually, examine their own roles in the eaent. This paper draws extensiaely on Study II of the loint Eualuation, and examines the effectiveness of international monitoring (early warning) and management of the Rwanda conflict. It is not intended to explore all the factors which together contrtbutud ta the genocide that were or might haae been amenable to modifiutioi by the internatianal communi$. The focus is on warning and response beginning uith the start of the civil war in 1990, and culminating in an analysis of tie international response to the genocide in April-lune L994.

INTRODUCTION and organisations. This paper, like the study before it, is based Evaluators and historians have the luxury on a number of sub-studies, secondary sources as well as of hindsight to criticise actions and inac- considerable tions that subsequently appear inappro- primary data collected priate. Any search for lessons from the through interviews and document searches system, tragedy must, however, avoid retrospec- in the UN the NGO community and visits to national capitals tive speculation. Decision.makers were in Europe, North America and Africa. faced with often confusing signals, numer- ous competing demands for their attention and limitations on the resources at their IMPLICATIONS OF THE EVENTS OF 1959.-52 disposal. Critical policy theory was used by the evaluators to weigh the formulation Having administered the country through and execution of policies against their the aristocracy for four decades, the stated objectives as well as accepted inter- Belgian colonial authoritiesr turned their national norms for the behaviour of states support towards the majority Hutu in the late-1950s - a switch driven by the realisa- The developments of these last eighteen tion of the inevitability of the de-colonisa- menths have brought about the racial dicta- tion process, the logic of democratic rule torship of one party. .. . An oppressive and Belgian resentment that the strongest system has been replaced by another one. calls for independence were coming from . . . It is quite possible that some day we will witness violent among the favoured Tutsi class. After the reactions on the part of the Tutsi (cited in Prunier, 1995). so

tural mismatch between the responsibili- lacking. This is the conundrum. Without ties of international institutions and inter- either kind of interest, the UN as a ests of states in the post-Cold War world. collective actor was unable to mount an Revitalised by the end of the Cold adequate peace-keeping force expedi War, the UN in the 1990s rapidly tiously and cut through the Byzantine expanded its peace-keeping operations problems endemic to UN peace-keeping. throughout the world. Rwanda was added The mix-and-match system of deployment to the list in October 1993. The framework was slow and inadequate. Lacking a for peace-keeping was, however, set by powerful patron in the Security Council, the distribution of power in the Security the Rwandan operation was subject to Council, which represented the world as it cumbersome and bureaucratic procedures was half a century ago. Apart from France, that involved delays and inflexibility, and the maior powers on the Council were gave insufficient autonomy to the leader- uninterested in a small Central African ship in the field. country that was marginal to their econ- The international community might omic or political concerns and peripheral have responded better had the early warn- to international strategic rivalries. By their ing systems generated a clearer anticipa- power of veto and finances, the Perma- tion of forthcoming events. On the other nent Five controlled the peace-keeping hand, conflict management is a function of and enforcement operations of the UN. interest and capacity, not only to ensuring The only state with a demonstrated ability that information is collected and commu- to energise the Council in a crisis, the nicated, but to react. In this respect, United States, was haunted by memories regionalism appears as a critical and posi- of Somalia and determined not to get tive force that was not sufficiently recog- involved in another African conflict. It was nised or utilised. Structures of conflict also preoccupied with crises elsewhere, resolution and peace-keeping could have especially in Bosnia and Haiti. The lack of been strengthened by more involvement interest in Rwanda on the part of the maior of regional and sub-regional actors (the Western states left France to define a large OAU and the sub-regional grouping of the part of the policy field; the result was to states in the Great Lakes area) in the magnify the consequences, negative as decision and management structures. well as positive, of unilateralism. After all, these actors had definite interests Within the UN system as a whole, in the conflict and a critical stake in the there was no locus for assessing key policy outcome. Strengthening regional rnecha- questions. How, for instance, can the nisms for conflict resolution and peace- democratisation process be promoted keeping will require financial support from without exacerbating ethnic and regional richer states since most of the world's tensions or creating excuses for human conflicts occur in regions where the parties rights violations? How are extremists to be have the fewest resources to deal with controlled? Moreover, there was too little them. The consequence of these cumulative effort at policy co-ordination when oppor- fault lines in the intemational system was tunities appeared. an inability to stop or significantly mitigate a The rationale for UN peace-keeping is genocide of immense proportions. that it provides a neutral force, indepen- dent of partisan interest. However, parti- san interests can provide motivation and Notes energy to be directed at a problem when a 1.. The area which now forms Rwanda and commitment to conflict resolution per se is Burundi was administered bv German colonial authorities based in Dar-es-Salaam References between 1899 and L916. Belgium occu- pied the area during the First World War F6d6ration International Des Droits De l'Homme (FIDHX1993\ and subsequently administered the terri- Rapprt de la commis- tories under mandates first of the sion internationale d'enqu€te sur les oiolations des droits de l'homme au Rwnda depuis le 7er League of Nations and subsequently of the Octobre 1990. Paris, UN. New York, Washington, London, Ouagadougou, Montreal, 2. In part such criticisms were influenced by (1995) the Eastern Bloc and Non-aligned view that Le Carr6, ,. Our .Game. Hodder and Stoughton, London. the Tutsi political parties represented the most effective and radical opposition to Prunier, G. (1995) The Rwanda Crisis: History of a Genocide 7.959-1994. Company, Belgian colonialism. Hurst & London. 3. On 12 April, for instance, the Nal York Times United Nations Commission on Human Rights stated that the Hutu Prime Minister Agathe (UNHCRX1994I Report on Situation of ' Uwilingiyimana who was killed by hoops the Human Rights Rwanda. Addendum and militia on 7 April, in the same attack in E/CN,4/1994l7lAdd 1, 11 August 1993. which resulted in killing of 10 Belgian soldiers serving in UNAMI& was a Tutsi in an apparent attempt to mould reality to the Address for correspondence: Centre for notion that the events were simply Hutu Refugee Studies, York University, 4700 versus Tutsi. Keele Street, North York, Ontario, Canada M3V 1P3.