Job Name:2274802 Date:15-06-18 PDF Page:2274802pbc.p1.pdf Color: Black PANTONE 7530 C THE AMERICAN ENTERPRISE INSTITUTE FOR PUBLIC POLICY RESEARCH, established in 1943, is a publicly supported, nonpartisan research and educa­ tional organization. Its purpose is to assist policy makers, scholars, businessmen, the press and the public by providing objective analysis of national and inter­ national issues. Views expressed in the institute's publications are those of the authors and do not necessariIy reflect the views of the staff, advisory panels, officers or trustees of AEI. Institute publications take three major forms: 1. Legislative Analyses-balanced analyses of current proposals before the Congress, prepared with the help of specialists from the academic world and the fields of law and government. 2. Studies-in-depth studies and monographs about government programs and major national and international problems, written by independent scholars. 3. Rational Debates, Meetings, and Symposia-proceedings of debates, dis­ cussions, and conferences where eminent authorities with contrasting views discuss controversial issues. ADVISORY BOARD Paul W. McCracken, Chairman, Edmund Ezra Day University Professor of Business Administration, University of Michigan R. H. Coase, Professor of Economics, University of Chicago Milton Friedman, Paul S. Russell Distinguished Service Professor of Economics, University of Chicago Gottfried Haberler, Resident Scholar, American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research C. Lowell Harriss, Professor of Economics, Columbia University George Lenczowski, Professor of Political Science, University of California, Berkeley Robert A. Nisbet, Albert Schweitzer Professor of the Humanities, Columbia University James A. Robinson, President, University of West Florida EXECUTIVE COMMITTEE Herman J. Schmidt, Chairman of the Richard J. Farrell Board Dean P. Fite William J. Baroody, President Richard B. Madden Charles T. Fisher III, Treasurer SENIOR STAFF Anne Brunsdale, Director of Edward J. Mitchell, Director of National Publications Energy Project Joseph G. Butts, Director of Legislative W. S. Moore, Director of Legal Policy Analysis Studies Robert B. Helms, Director of Health Robert J. Pranger, Director of Foreign Policy Studies and Defense Policy Studies Thomas F. Johnson, Director of Louis M. Thompson, Jr., Assistant to Research the President for Communication Gary L. Jones, Assistant to the David G. Tuerck, Director of Center for President for Administration Research on Advertising Richard M. Lee, Director of Planning and Development NORTHERN IRELAND NORTHERN IRELAND Time of Choice Richard Rose American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research Washington, D. C. Distributed to the Trade by National Book Network, 15200 NBN Way, Blue Ridge Summit, PA 17214. To order call toll free 1-800-462-6420 or 1-717-794-3800. For all other inquiries please contact the AEI Press, 1150 Seventeenth Street, N.W., Washington, D.C. 20036 or call 1-800-862-5801. Richard Rose is professor of politics at the University of Strath­ clyde, Glasgow, Scotland. ISBN 0-8447-3206-0 Foreign Affairs Study 33, April 1976 Library of Congress Catalog Card No. 76-10080 © 1976 by American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research, Washington, D. C. Permission to quote from or to reproduce materials in this publication is granted when due acknowledgment is made. Printed in the United States of America To the people of Antrim, Armagh, Down, Fermanagh, Londonderry and Tyrone­ however they choose to describe themselves. They endured ABBREVIATIONS B Specials Ulster Special Constabulary (paramilitary police organization disbanded in 1969) DUP Democratic Unionist party (leader: Ian Paisley) IRA Irish Republican Army IRSP Irish Republican Socialist party NILP Northern Ireland Labour party NIO Northern Ireland Office of the United Kingdom government PR Proportional representation RUe Royal Ulster Constabulary (police force) SDLP Social Democratic and Labour party (leader: Gerry Fitt) STV Single transferable vote UDA Ulster Defence Association (Protestant paramilitary organization) UDR Ulster Defence Regiment (British army-led paramilitary reserve) UPNI Unionist party of Northern Ireland (leader: Brian Faulkner) uuue United Ulster Unionist Council UVF Ulster Volunteer Force uwe Ulster Workers' Council VUP Vanguard Unionist party CONTENTS INTRODUCTION 1 1 THE PROBLEM BRIEFLY STATED 7 Nationality 9 Religion 11 Government without Consensus 14 2 TO THE PRECIPICE 19 Stormont,1921-1972 19 The Political Vacuum, 1972-1975 27 3 THE PARTIES TO THE CONFLICT 33 Characteristics of Political Organization in Ulster 33 Protestant Political Groupings 37 Catholic Political Groupings 49 The "Extreme" Moderates 58 The British Role 59 Ulster and the Republic 65 Strange Bedfellows 68 4 CAMPAIGNING FOR A CONSTITUTION 71 The Circumstances of the Election 71 The Competing Parties 79 On the Eve of the Election 92 5 THE RESULT OF THE BALLOT 95 Turnout and Boycott 95 The Distribution of Votes 99 The Effects of Proportional Representation 102 The Discipline of Voters 105 The Winning Candidates 111 6 IN SEARCH OF A SETTLEMENT 117 Strategic Options 117 A Productive Recess 123 The Outcome 132 7 THE LIMITS OF CHOICE 139 An Insoluble Problem 139 Alternative Ways of Coping 142 Self-Government within the United Kingdom 143 Direct Rule from London 153 An Independent Northern Ireland 156 Unification with Southern Ireland 157 The Destruction of Northern Ireland 160 The Way Ahead 165 APPENDIX A: Vote Transfers 167 APPENDIX B: A Note on Readings 173 LIST OF TABLES AND FIGURES 1. Deaths by Political Violence in Northern Ireland, 1969-1975 25 2. Northern Ireland Assembly Election Result, 1973 30 3. Northern Ireland Convention Election Result, 1975 97 4. Relation of Seats to Votes, Northern Ireland and the United Kingdom 104 5. The Strength of Partisanship 108 6. Votes by Tendencies, Westminster and Northern Ireland Elections, 1973-1975 110 7. Religious Affiliation of Convention Members 111 8. Comparison of Ages of Convention Members and Westminster M.P.s 112 9. Comparison of the Occupations of Convention Members and Westminster M.P.s 113 10. Comparison of the Education of Convention Members and Westminster M.P.s 114 11. The Political Experience of Convention Members 115 A-I. Sources of Vote Transfers, Northern Ireland Convention Election 171 A-2. Distribution of Vote Transfers, Northern Ireland Convention Election 172 Figure 1. The Distribution of the Vote by Tendencies, 1973 and 1975 98 LIST OF MAPS Britain and Ireland, opposite page 1 Northern Ireland 8 BRITAIN AND IRELAND v o INTRODUCTION For seven years the community has been torn and wounded by deep and unhappy differences. Our people have drained the cup of suffering. Some have been touched more closely and more poignantly than others, but no one has escaped, and no hon1e and no family has been immune. The days of our affliction have been long. Opening statement of the chairman, Northern Ireland Constitutional Convention, 8 May 1975 In most countries where they are held, elections decide who governs; in Northern Ireland, elections are about how the country should be governed-or whether it should be governed at all. For almost a century, a choice between alternative constitutions and national loyal­ ties has been the central choice facing the voters of Northern Ireland. Elections have been concerned not so much with which party should govern Ulster, but rather with what country Northern Ireland belongs to, Great Britain or a united Ireland. Parties have ,disputed whether the electorate should be composed principally of Ulstermen, or citizens of the Republic of Ireland, or British voters, or some combination of these three groups. Lacking agreement about issues basic to gover­ nance, one or another (and sometimes several) of the major parties to the dispute have turned from election campaigns to military cam­ paigns, hoping to decide with bullets what could not be decided with ballots. Since 8 March 1973, the people of Northern Ireland have seven times gone to the polls to cast their votes-or to express their rejection of the system by spoiling their ballots. Ulstermen have been asked 1 to vote about everything from local government to the territorial sovereignty of the British Isles and the European Community. None of these elections has settled the problem of how Northern Ireland can be governed. On 1 May 1975, the people of Ulster were finally asked, for the first time in their history, to vote for representatives to a constitutional convention that would discuss new instruments of civil government. The initial reaction to the results-in London, in Dublin, and in many parts of Northern Ireland itself-was doubt about whether this ballot would be any more successful than its predecessors in bringing political stability to a much troubled land. Politics aside-if that were possible-Northern Ireland might best be described as a small"nation" slightly outside the mainstream of Western industrial civilization. A visitor from London or New York enjoys the advantages of a small-scale society. A visitor from the coal fields of Pennsylvania or the English midlands marvels at the unspoiled landscape. Northern Ireland is less sunny but far greener than the Rocky Mountain states of America or the northern and western states of Australia. It is less isolated than Finland and less cursed with poverty than Southern Italy. All in all, a seasoned traveler would compare Northern Ireland with nearby parts of the British Isles-Wales and Scotland-and