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Ipsos MORI 2008 Budget Briefing 11 March 2008

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Ipsos MORI 2008 Budget Briefing 11 March 2008 Contacts: [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] Ipsos MORI 020 7347 3000 www.ipsos-mori.com/publicaffairs Introduction This slide pack outlines commentary and data from Ipsos MORI on key issues for Chancellor Alistair Darling’s first Budget, being delivered on Wednesday 12 March. The pack contains data from the new Ipsos MORI Delivery Index (fieldwork 7-9 March) outlining the public’s assessment of Alistair Darling as Chancellor, with comparative data for previous Chancellors going back to Denis Healey, as well as the public’s optimism about public services. The pack also contains our latest data on other economic issues from Ipsos MORI’s Political Monitor, such as optimism towards the economy, views on the best party to handle the economy and the economy's importance as an issue. Additional data (some going back as far as 1979) is available on our website at www.ipsos-mori.com/political. Please direct queries, suggestions or press requests to Ben Page, Julia Clark, Gideon Skinner or Graham Keilloh at Ipsos MORI on 020 7347 3000. Summary Alistair Darling delivers his first Budget as Chancellor this week having faced a number of difficulties since entering 11 Downing Street last summer. These include forecasts of an economic slowdown, a ‘credit crunch’ in the international money markets as well as criticisms of Darling’s handling of the crisis and eventual nationalisation of Northern Rock. These are reflected by almost half of the public (44%) being dissatisfied with Darling’s Chancellorship, while fewer than three in ten (28%) are satisfied. While Darling’s ratings are similar to Gordon Brown’s final ratings as Chancellor, they are far behind the first (and many of the subsequent) ratings of previous Labour Chancellors Brown and Denis Healey. Darling’s first ratings are nevertheless similar to those of previous Conservative Chancellors Ken Clarke and Nigel Lawson who, like Darling, assumed the role in the middle of a Parliamentary term. Summary Labour has lost its lead as the party best able to get good value from the public money it spends. The public are now split between the Labour and the Conservatives on this issue, whereas just before the 2005 General Election Labour was 11 points ahead of the Conservatives. This will be a crucial issue ahead of the next General Election, given the similarity of the two main parties’ economic policies and widespread perceptions that there is little economic room to manoeuvre in the current financial climate. Further, two in five of the public either don’t know or believe neither party would be better on getting value for public money, so there is plenty of scope for these ratings to change to the benefit of either main party. Summary The Conservatives are currently ahead in our voting intention measure, and the public’s mood on the future of public services remains pessimistic overall, although the situation has at least stabilised in recent months. There are also some signs of an increasingly positive mood on the NHS and on opportunities for young people. Pessimism about the economy has however grown in recent months. Indeed, more of the public have been viewing the economy as a key issue facing Britain across recent months, and the battle over the prized asset of economic competence, which the Labour Party have maintained throughout their ten years in office, will be a vital one for the main parties in deciding the outcome of the next General Election. With the Conservatives leading in the polls, almost half of the public are dissatisfied with Darling’s Chancellorship so far. This is likely to reflect difficulties such as the handling of Northern Rock and growing concerns about the economy. Conservatives hold a lead in the polls Q How would you vote if there were a General Election tomorrow? All giving a voting All certain to intention (75%) vote (47%) Other Other 11% Con 12%6% Con LD LD 15% 38% 15% 41% Con lead = +2% Con lead = +9% 36% 32% Lab Lab All voting = 75% (758); All certain to vote = 47% (477) Source: Ipsos MORI Delivery Index Attitudes towards Darling as Chancellor Q Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Alistair Darling is doing his job as Chancellor of the Exchequer? Don’t know 28% 28% Satisfied 44% Dissatisfied Base: 1,012 British adults 18+, 7-9 March 2008 Source: Ipsos MORI Delivery Index Darling’s ratings are similar to Brown’s last as Chancellor… Q Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Gordon Brown/ Alistair Darling is doing his job as Chancellor of the Exchequer? % net satisfaction Denis Geoffrey Nigel John Norman Kenneth Gordon Alistair 60 Healey Howe Lawson Major Lamont Clarke Brown Darling 46 49 40 32 32 29 23 20 22 1917 14 16 16 14 14 14 11 11 9 11 2 6 8 1 2 0 0 0 -2 -1 -3 -4 -3 -11 -7 -13 -13 -16 -18 -17 -16 -20 -19 -21 -28-29 -40 -52 -53 8 5 -60 7 3 4 6 8 9 9 0 0 2 4 6 7 -82 8 9 9 -95 9 9 0 0 -0 r r- r- c- c- r- l-0 r- b-0 a ar-85 a ar-89 ar-91 a e e a Ju pr- ar-03 a ov Apr-76 Apr-78 M M M M M M D Dec D Feb-9 Nov- M Feb-0 Nov-00 A M M N Fe Apr-0 Base: c. 2,000 British adults 18 +; March 2008 c. 1,000 British adults 18 + Source: Ipsos MORI Delivery Index …but his first ratings as Chancellor are far below Brown and Healey Q Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Gordon Brown/Alistair Darling is doing his job as Chancellor of the Exchequer? % Dissatisfied % Satisfied First ratings for each Chancellor April 1976 (Denis Healey) 20 66 July 1980 (Geoffrey Howe) 38 52 March 1985 (Nigel Lawson) 53 34 March 1990 (John Major) 37 39 March 1991 (Norman Lamont) 40 37 December 1993 (Kenneth Clarke) 49 31 July 1997 (Gordon Brown) 20 52 March 2008 (Alistair Darling) 44 28 Base: c. 2,000 British adults 18 +; March 2008 c. 1,000 British adults 18 + Source: Ipsos MORI Delivery Index Labour has lost its lead as the party most likely to achieve value for public money, and the public is now split between them and the Conservatives – and many do not know. Getting value for public money Q Do you think a Labour or Conservative Government would be most effective in getting good value for the public money it spends? April 2005 March 2008 Labour Don’t know Don’t know Government None 12% 19% 27% 13% Labour 41% Government Other 4% 22% 30% None 3% 29% Conservative Other Government Conservative Government Base: 1,012 British adults, 7-9 March 2008 Source: Ipsos MORI Social Research Institute Delivery Index Expectations of public services Q On balance, do you agree or disagree that in the long term, this government’s policies will improve the state of Britain’s public services? Don’t know 12% 33% Agree 55% Disagree Base: 1,012 British adults 18+, 7-9 March 2008 Source: Ipsos MORI Delivery Index -22 -20 -13 -22 Mar-08 Nov-07 Sep-07 May-07 e long term, this government’s -28 -28 Mar-07 Nov-06 -2 Sep-06 the ‘Browne of Britain’s bounce’ public services” -21 May-06 Mar-06 arch Institute Delivery Index Nov-05 Sep-05 Expectations of public services have -19 -13 May-05 stabilised since the election, aside from Feb-05 Nov-04 Sep-04 -27 Jun-04 Mar-04 Dec-03 -14 -34 Sep-03 Jul-03 policies will improve the stat Jun-03 22 6 Mar-03 Source: Ipsos MORI Social Rese Q Do you agree or disagree… “In th3 % net agree -18 Dec-02 20 Sep-02 10 May-02 0 Mar-02 -10 Nov-01 Oct-01 -20 Jun-01 -30 -40 Base: c.1,000 British Adults Pessimism about the future of the economy has grown in recent months, reflecting the ‘credit crunch’ and forecasts of an economic slowdown. worse Base: 1,037 British adults 18+, 21-26 Feb 2008 Q Do you think that the general economic condition of the country Get Don’t know will improve, stay the same or months? EOI = -47% 54% February 2008 5% 7% pessimistic about the economy Improve Most of the public are now 33% Stay the same 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 get worse over the next 12 Jan-04 Mar May July January 2004 – February 2008 Sept Nov Jan-05 Mar May July Sept Nov Feb Apr Stay the same 33% Source: Ipsos MORI June Sept Get worse 54% Nov Jan-07 Improve May-07 Jul-07 Sep-07 Dec-07 Feb-08 7% The Ipsos MORI Economic Optimism Index Q Do you think that the general economic condition of the country will improve, stay the same or get worse over the next 12 40 months? +28 30 Index (get better minus get worse) 20 10 0 -4 -10 -20 -30 -40 -50 -46 -60 -47 -56 (Feb 08) -70 Jul '03 Jul Jul '01 Jul Apr '07 Apr Jan '06 Jun '06 Oct '04 Oct Oct '02 Oct Apr '00 Apr Jan '99 Jun '99 Oct '97 Oct Jan '97 Mar '05 Mar Mar '03 Mar Mar '98 Mar Nov '06 Nov '99 Aug '05 May '04 Feb '01 May '02 Aug '98 May '97 Sep '07 Dec '03 Sep '00 Dec '01 Base: c.
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