Ipsos MORI 2008 Budget Briefing 11 March 2008

Contacts: [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] Ipsos MORI 020 7347 3000 www.ipsos-mori.com/publicaffairs Introduction

This slide pack outlines commentary and data from Ipsos MORI on key issues for Chancellor Alistair Darling’s first Budget, being delivered on Wednesday 12 March. The pack contains data from the new Ipsos MORI Delivery Index (fieldwork 7-9 March) outlining the public’s assessment of Alistair Darling as Chancellor, with comparative data for previous Chancellors going back to Denis Healey, as well as the public’s optimism about public services. The pack also contains our latest data on other economic issues from Ipsos MORI’s Political Monitor, such as optimism towards the economy, views on the best party to handle the economy and the economy's importance as an issue. Additional data (some going back as far as 1979) is available on our website at www.ipsos-mori.com/political. Please direct queries, suggestions or press requests to Ben Page, Julia Clark, Gideon Skinner or Graham Keilloh at Ipsos MORI on 020 7347 3000. Summary

Alistair Darling delivers his first Budget as Chancellor this week having faced a number of difficulties since entering 11 Downing Street last summer. These include forecasts of an economic slowdown, a ‘credit crunch’ in the international money markets as well as criticisms of Darling’s handling of the crisis and eventual nationalisation of Northern Rock. These are reflected by almost half of the public (44%) being dissatisfied with Darling’s Chancellorship, while fewer than three in ten (28%) are satisfied. While Darling’s ratings are similar to Gordon Brown’s final ratings as Chancellor, they are far behind the first (and many of the subsequent) ratings of previous Labour Chancellors Brown and Denis Healey. Darling’s first ratings are nevertheless similar to those of previous Conservative Chancellors Ken Clarke and Nigel Lawson who, like Darling, assumed the role in the middle of a Parliamentary term. Summary

Labour has lost its lead as the party best able to get good value from the public money it spends. The public are now split between the Labour and the Conservatives on this issue, whereas just before the 2005 General Election Labour was 11 points ahead of the Conservatives. This will be a crucial issue ahead of the next General Election, given the similarity of the two main parties’ economic policies and widespread perceptions that there is little economic room to manoeuvre in the current financial climate. Further, two in five of the public either don’t know or believe neither party would be better on getting value for public money, so there is plenty of scope for these ratings to change to the benefit of either main party. Summary

The Conservatives are currently ahead in our voting intention measure, and the public’s mood on the future of public services remains pessimistic overall, although the situation has at least stabilised in recent months. There are also some signs of an increasingly positive mood on the NHS and on opportunities for young people. Pessimism about the economy has however grown in recent months. Indeed, more of the public have been viewing the economy as a key issue facing Britain across recent months, and the battle over the prized asset of economic competence, which the Labour Party have maintained throughout their ten years in office, will be a vital one for the main parties in deciding the outcome of the next General Election. With the Conservatives leading in the polls, almost half of the public are dissatisfied with Darling’s Chancellorship so far. This is likely to reflect difficulties such as the handling of Northern Rock and growing concerns about the economy. Conservatives hold a lead in the polls

Q How would you vote if there were a General Election tomorrow? All giving a voting All certain to intention (75%) vote (47%) Other Other 11% Con 12%6% Con LD LD 15% 38% 15% 41% Con lead = +2% Con lead = +9%

36% 32%

Lab Lab

All voting = 75% (758); All certain to vote = 47% (477) Source: Ipsos MORI Delivery Index Attitudes towards Darling as Chancellor

Q Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Alistair Darling is doing his job as Chancellor of the Exchequer?

Don’t know 28% 28% Satisfied

44% Dissatisfied

Base: 1,012 British adults 18+, 7-9 March 2008 Source: Ipsos MORI Delivery Index Darling’s ratings are similar to Brown’s last as Chancellor…

Q Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Gordon Brown/ Alistair Darling is doing his job as Chancellor of the Exchequer? % net satisfaction Denis Geoffrey Nigel John Norman Kenneth Gordon Alistair 60 Healey Howe Lawson Major Lamont Clarke Brown Darling

46 49 40 32 32 29 23 20 22 1917 14 16 16 14 14 14 11 11 9 11 2 6 8 1 2 0 0 0 -2 -1 -3 -4 -3 -11 -7 -13 -13 -16 -18 -17 -16 -20 -19 -21 -28-29

-40

-52 -53

-60 7 3 4 6 8 8 9 0 0 2 4 5 6 7 8 9 9 -95 9 9 9 0 0 -0 r-82 r- r- c- c- r- l-0 r- b-0 a ar-85 a ar-89 ar-91 a e e a Ju pr- ar-03 a ov Apr-76 Apr-78 M M M M M M D Dec D Feb-9 Nov- M Feb-0 Nov-00 A M M N Fe Apr-0 Base: c. 2,000 British adults 18 +; March 2008 c. 1,000 British adults 18 + Source: Ipsos MORI Delivery Index …but his first ratings as Chancellor are far below Brown and Healey Q Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Gordon Brown/Alistair Darling is doing his job as Chancellor of the Exchequer? % Dissatisfied % Satisfied First ratings for each Chancellor April 1976 (Denis Healey) 20 66 July 1980 (Geoffrey Howe) 38 52 March 1985 (Nigel Lawson) 53 34 March 1990 (John Major) 37 39 March 1991 (Norman Lamont) 40 37 December 1993 (Kenneth Clarke) 49 31 July 1997 (Gordon Brown) 20 52 March 2008 (Alistair Darling) 44 28 Base: c. 2,000 British adults 18 +; March 2008 c. 1,000 British adults 18 + Source: Ipsos MORI Delivery Index Labour has lost its lead as the party most likely to achieve value for public money, and the public is now split between them and the Conservatives – and many do not know. Getting value for public money

Q Do you think a Labour or Conservative Government would be most effective in getting good value for the public money it spends?

April 2005 March 2008 Labour Don’t know Don’t know Government

None 12% 19% 27% 13% Labour 41% Government Other 4% 22%

30% None 3% 29% Conservative Other Government Conservative Government Base: 1,012 British adults, 7-9 March 2008 Source: Ipsos MORI Social Research Institute Delivery Index Expectations of public services

Q On balance, do you agree or disagree that in the long term, this government’s policies will improve the state of Britain’s public services?

Don’t know 12% 33% Agree

55% Disagree

Base: 1,012 British adults 18+, 7-9 March 2008 Source: Ipsos MORI Delivery Index Expectations of public services have stabilised since the election, aside from the ‘Brown bounce’ Q Do you agree or disagree… “In the long term, this government’s policies will improve the state of Britain’s public services” % net agree

20 22

10 6 3 0 -2 -10 -14 -13 -13 -18 -19 -20 -21 -22-20-22 -27 -30 -28 -28 -34 -40

J O N M M S N M M S u S D M J J N M M S N c o S D M J S e o M a a e e u u N F M a a e o e n- t a e e u p v a a o v r y p c n- a e o e r y p v p a - - - r l p c a - - - r y v 0 0 - - - - - r n p v b- 0 0 0 0 - - - - r 0 0 0 0 02 0 0 - - - y 0 0 0 0 - - - - 1 1 2 0 0 03 - - - 5 5 5 6 0 0 0 0 1 2 2 3 3 0 0 0 0 0 - 6 6 6 7 3 3 4 7 7 7 8 4 4 4 5

Base: c.1,000 British Adults Source: Ipsos MORI Social Research Institute Delivery Index Pessimism about the future of the economy has grown in recent months, reflecting the ‘credit crunch’ and forecasts of an economic slowdown. Most of the public are now pessimistic about the economy Q Do you think that the general economic condition of the country will improve, stay the same or get worse over the next 12 months? February 2008 January 2004 – February 2008 Don’t know Improve Get worse 54% 5%7% 60 50 Get worse 33% 40 30 Stay the same 33% 54% 20 Stay the 10 Improve 7% same 0

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n c n EOI = -47% n p b S S S J u

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Base: 1,037 British adults 18+, 21-26 Feb 2008 Source: Ipsos MORI The Ipsos MORI Economic Optimism Index Q Do you think that the general economic condition of the country will improve, stay the same or get worse over the next 12 months? 40 +28 30 Index (get better minus get worse) 20 10

0 -4 -10 -20 -30 -40 -50 -46 -47 -60 -56 (Feb 08) -70 Jul '03 Jul Jul '01 Jul Jan '06 Jun '06 '07 Apr Oct '04 Oct Oct '02 Oct Jan '99 Jun '99 '00 Apr Oct '97 Oct Jan '97 Mar '05 Mar Mar '03 Mar Mar '98 Mar Nov '06 Nov '99 Aug '05 May '04 Feb '01 May '02 Aug '98 May '97 Sep '07 Dec '03 Sep '00 Dec '01

Base: c. 1,000 British adults each month Source: Ipsos MORI More of the public think the economy is important over recent months, again reflecting recent concerns. More see the economy as an important issue facing Britain

Q What would you say is the most important issue facing Britain today? What do you see as other important issues facing Britain today? % 25

20

15

10 Economy 5

0

5 5 5 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 8 0 05 -06 0 0 0 r- l-0 r-0 l t-06 t- c-0 -0 y- a y-0 c-06 b a Ju a Ju e Jun-0 e Jan-0 Ma M Sep-05Nov-05Jan-06M M Oc D Apr- Aug- Oc D Fe Base: c. 1,000 adults 18+ each month Issues facing Britain: February 08

Q What would you say is the most important issue facing Britain today? What do you see as other important issues facing Britain today? Top spontaneous mentions Crime/ law and order 50% Race relations/immigration 44% NHS/Hospitals 25% Economy 18% Education/Schools 17% Defence/Foreign affairs 16% Housing 12% Morality/Individual Behaviour 10% Inflation/Prices 9% Taxation 8%

Base: 1,037 British adults 18+, 21-26 Feb 2008 At the time of Gordon Brown’s accession as Prime Minister, Labour still had a lead as the best party to manage the economy, though many were still undecided. Best Party on Managing the Economy

% Conservative Labour Lib Dem Other/None/Don't know 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 Feb Apr May Jul Jan Jul Feb Feb Sep Sep Sep Sep 97 97 98 99 00 00 01 02 03 04 06 07

QUESTION WORDING: “I am going to read out a list of problems facing Britain today. I would like you to tell me whether you think the Conservative party, the Labour party or the Liberal Democrats has the best policies on each problem.” Base: representative sample of at least 1,000 British adults age 18+ each month, interviewed face-to-face in home Source: Ipsos MORI MPs and Captains of Industry broadly share the public’s pessimism on the economy. Net Economic Optimism – MPs vs Captains vs General Public

Q Do you think that the general economic condition of the country will improve, stay the same or get worse over the next 12 % Change Net Score months? GDP General Public Captains 5 MPs % Change GDP 4.8 100 General General General 4.6 Election May Election Jun Election May 4.4 80 1997 2001 2005 4.2 Crisis at 4 Northern 60 Rock and 3.8 ‘credit 3.6 crunch’ 3.4 40 3.2 3 20 2.8 2.6 0 2.4 2.2 2 -20 1.8 1.6 -40 1.4 1.2 -60 Economi 1 c Crisis 0.8 in Russia 0.6 -80 and Asia Sept Sterling reached 5 July 7 0.4 Aug-Sep 11 year high against bombings 0.2 dollar Oct 2003 -100 1998 2001 0 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Base: Members of Parliament/British Captains of Industry/General Public (c. 1,000 British adults each month), 1995-2006 The NHS remains a key concern, though gradually more are becoming optimistic over time. More are also optimistic about opportunities for young people. Expectations of Government delivery: Mar 2008 Q Thinking about…over the next few years do you expect it/them to…? % Get better % Get worse The quality of education 33 24

Opportunities for 32 33 young people 29 30 Public transport

Skills in Britain’s 28 32 workforce 26 37 The NHS

Base: 1,012 British adults, 7-9 March 2008 Source: Ipsos MORI Social Research Institute Delivery Index Some improvements in perceptions over the quarter Q Thinking about… over the next few years, do you expect it/them to get better/worse? %net Nov 07 Mar 08 better 15% 8% 9% 5% 0%

-5% -1% -1% -4% +1 -8% -6%* -15% -11% -1 -16% -25% +7 +2 -35% +5

The quality The NHS Public Opportunities Skills in of Transport for young Britain’s education people workforce * September 2007 Base: 1,012 British adults, 7-9 March 2008 Source: Ipsos MORI Social Research Institute Delivery Index Expectations Trends

Q Thinking about… over the next few years do you expect it to get better/worse?

25 Education 15 9% 5 -1% -5 -11% -15 % net better Public transport -25 NHS -35 M M S N S D M J M M S N S D M J e M a a e e u S N F M o e a e e u S N M M p a a o r y p c n- a e o eb- v r p a - r p c n- a e o - y v r 0 - - - - r p v a a - - - - 0 0 0 0 - - - y p v 0 0 0 0 - - 2 0 0 03 0 - - r y 6 6 0 0 0 0 2 2 2 3 3 0 0 0 0 - - - - 6 7 7 7 3 4 4 0 0 0 0 - 7 8 4 4 5 5 5 5 6

Base: c.1,000 British Adults Most of the public remain pessimistic about the government’s handling of crime, immigration and pensions. Fewer of the public believes that the government listens to the people. Confidence in the government

Q How confident, if at all, are you that the government will . . . . in the next few years? Are you . . .

% Very confident % Fairly confident% Not very confident % Not at all confident Deal with climate change 6 33 35 21

Control/manage immigration 5 20 31 40

Listen to people’s 3 22 39 33 priorities

Do right thing 5 18 42 31 about pensions

Base: 1,012 British adults, 7-9 March 2008 Source: Ipsos MORI Social Research Institute Delivery Index A mixed picture in expectations over the last six months Q Thinking about… over the next few years, do you expect it/them to get better/worse? %net better Sept 07 Mar 08 10% 0% -10% -20% -19%-17% -30% -40% -38% -50% +2 -46% -47% -48%-50% -60% -56% -9 -2 +10

Deal with Listen to Do right thing Control/ climate people’s about manage change priorities pensions immigration Base: 1,012 British adults, 7-9 March 2008 Source: Ipsos MORI Social Research Institute Delivery Index Confidence in the government on crime

Q Please tell me whether you are confident in the current government, or not, when it comes to cracking down on crime and violence?

Don’t know 3% 30% Yes, confident

67%

No, not confident

Base: 510 British adults 18+, 7-9 March 2008 Source: Ipsos MORI Delivery Index Confidence in the government on crime has stabilised over time

Q Please tell me whether you are confident in the current government, or not, when it comes to cracking down on crime and violence? % yes, confident 70 68 60

50 51 49 42 40 39 36 36 35 32 32 30 29 29 31 31 29 30 25 20

10

0 M J N F S N M S N F M S N F M S N F M S N F M S M S N M M S N F M S N F M S N F M M S N M u eb eb e a e o a e o eb e o eb e eb o a e o a e o eb e o eb e eb o a a e o n p- a a o a e a a a o a p- a r v y p- v p- v p- v p- v y p- v r y p- v p- v p- v v r y p- v r - - - y y y - - - r y y - - 9 9 ------0 ------0 - - - 9 9 9 98 9 9 9 99 9 9 0 0 0 0 - 0 02 0 0 0 03 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 - 06 0 0 07 0 0 0 7 7 8 00 01 0 1 2 3 05 0 6 6 7 8 7 7 8 8 9 9 9 0 0 0 1 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 6 7 7

Base: c.1,000 British Adults (March 2008 c.500 British Adults) Source: Ipsos MORI The Ipsos MORI Delivery Index

The Ipsos MORI Delivery Index focuses on expectations for public services and the economy generally as well as on the key public services and Government aims, as well as on Government trust and influence The research is conducted every quarter, providing a regular “health check” on government performance and public expectations for the future The results are based on 1,012 interviews with adults aged 18+, 7-9 March 2008 Fieldwork was conducted by telephone Ipsos MORI Public Affairs www.ipsos-mori.com/publicaffairs - 020 7347 3000

For further details please contact: ƒ Ben Page ƒ Gideon Skinner ƒ Graham Keilloh

For more information about Ipsos MORI’s specialist research, please contact: ƒ Politics: Julia Clark and Ben Marshall ƒ Health: Jonathan Nicholls and Ben Page ƒ Crime: Ashley Ames and Rhonda Wake ƒ Education: Fiona Johnson ƒ Public Transport: Carole Lehman and Lisa Valade-DeMelo ƒ Environment: Phil Downing and Ed Langley