Review of Research on Educational Access, Transitions and Equity Perspectives, Patterns and Policy Implications Keith M Lewin

www.create-rpc.org

Review of Research on Educational Access, Transitions and Equity Perspectives, Patterns and Policy Implications

Keith M Lewin

Bangladesh, Ghana, India, South Africa China, Kenya, Malawi, Sri Lanka

Presentation slides © Create:Keith M Lewin Partners

University of Cape Coast If Education for All had happened beyond Dakar (2000) or Jomtien (1990) then in 2011…….

• All children would be in school at the age of six years • There would be no overage children in schools • All children would attend consistently and progress at the appropriate age and graduate from primary and lower secondary • Levels of achievement would indicate most children scored within one year of the norm for their grade • Learning would take place in appropriate spaces • There would be no differences in participation by wealth, gender, location, social group, disability etc • The Global Monitoring Report would not identify 65 million primary age children out of school A Twelve Point Framework for Equitable Access

1. Improve early childhood health 2. Entry and progression on schedule for age 3. Act on causes of drop out on supply and demand sides 4. Diagnose and remedy Silent Exclusion 5. Manage increased access to Post Primary 6. Promote effective pedagogies and manage learning 7. Build schools and enhance facilities 8. Develop/distribute learning materials fit for purpose 9. Train and deploy competent and motivated teachers 10. Use monitoring assessment to improve learning 11.Provide sustainable financing + track utilisation 12.Develop indicators and monitor distribution and equity Profiling Exclusion Demand Supply

Individual School quality, characteristics process and outcomes and agency Meaningful Equitable Access Household District educational Characteristics governance and Agency Community social, economic, and resources and political

Equity Mobility Transitions Distribution Poverty Reduction Growth

• Sustained attendance not just enrolment • On-schedule progression at appropriate ages • Meaningful learning and adequate achievement • Normal health and nutrition • Appropriate learning environment • pedagogy / curriculum / teachers / facilities • Reasonable access to subsequent levels of education • More equity + less variation in quantity/quality of inputs

Access = Att + Age + Ach + Hn + Le (p + c+ t + lf ) +…

Numbers without Meaningful Access may be 300 million? CREATE Zones of Exclusion

100 Unlikely Zone 1 to Enrol No Never Should Access 90 Enrol CREATE Enrol Zones of Exclusion 80 www.create-rpc.org Zone O 70 © [email protected] No Zone 2 No Pre- Primary Drop Outs Access School 60

Zone 4 40 Zone 3 At Risk Primary Leavers Overage, Low Attenders and Achievers % Participating No 30 Zone 5 Drop Outs Access

20 Zone 6 At Risk At Risk 10 Secure Enrolment, Attendance and Achievement Access 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 910 Primary Grades Lower Secondary Grades Ghana

350000 Z Zone 1 o 300000 n Zone 2 Zone e Age/Grade 250000 Population Zone 4 0 Zone 5 Charts 200000 Zone 3 P Silent Exclusion Boys r 150000

Enrolment Girls e s Zone 6 c 100000 h Ghana o o 50000 Secure Enrolment with Meaningful Learning l S. Africa 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 101112 © [email protected] Grade

South Africa

Z 700000 Zone 1 o Zone 4 n 600000 Zone 2 e 500000 0 Age/Grade Zone 5 Population 400000 P Zone 3 r Silent Exclusion e 300000 Zone 6 s c h 200000 o o Secure Enrolment with Meaningful Learning Boys l 100000 Girls

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 101112 Grade CREATE Model based on NDoE Data Gross Enrolment Rates - Grade and Gender 2000-2009

200 150

175 Uganda Tanzania GER =120; NER = 97 125

150 GER =111; NER = 99 100 125

Girls % 2006 75 100 Girls % 2007 Girls % 2008 75 Girls % 2009 50 Girls % 2006 Girls % 2010 Girls % 2007 50 GER 2006 Girls % 2008 GER 2007 25

Girls % 2009 Gross Enrolment Rate and % Girls GrossEnrolment Rate and% Girls GER 2008 25 GPI – 1.01 Girls % 2010 GPI – 99 GER 2009 GER 2006 GER 2010 0 GER 2007 0 G1 G2 G3 G4 G5 G6 G7 G8 G9 G10 G11 G12 G13 GER 2008 G1 G2 G3 G4 G5 G6 G7 G8 G9 G10 G11 G12 G13 (S4) (S5) (S6) (S1) (S2) (S3) (S4) (S5) (S6) (S7) (S1) (S2) (S3) GER 2009 Grade GER 2010 Grade 250 200

225 Malawi Ethiopia 175

200 150 GER =100; NER = 85 175 GER =113; NER = 91

125 150 Gross Enrolment Rates Girls % 2006 125 100 Girls % 2007

100 Girls % 2008 75 Girls % 2009 Girls % 2006 75 Girls % 2010 Girls % 2007 50 GER 2006 Girls % 2008 50 GER 2007 Girls % 2009 % Girls Gross Enrolment Rate and % Girls Gross Enrolment Rate and % Girls 25 Enrolled GER 2008 25 Girls % 2010 GPI – 1.03 GPI – 0.94 GER 2009 GER 2006 GER 2010 0 GER 2007 0 G1 G2 G3 G4 G5 G6 G7 G8 G9G10 G11 G12 GER 2008 G1 G2 G3 G4 G5 G6 G7 G8 G10 G9 G11 G12 (S4) (S1) (S2) (S3) (S4) (S1) (S2) (S3) GER 2009 © [email protected] Grade GER 2010 Grade Enrolments by Year and by Grade 2000-2009

1,800,000 2,500,000 Uganda Tanzania 1,600,000 2002 Cohort Track 2,000,000 1,400,000

1997 Cohort Track 1,200,000 1978 Cohort Track 1,500,000 1,000,000 G1 G1 G2 800,000 1,000,000 G2 G3 Enrolment Enrolment G3 600,000 G4 G4 400,000 G5 500,000 G5 G6 G6 200,000 G7 G7 0 0

5 9 5 1 5 0 3 6 9 2 5 8 1 4 7 0 3 6 9 8 8 9 0 0 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 9 9 9 0 0 0 0 9 9 0 0 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 0 0 0 0 19 1987 1 1991 1993 1 1997 1999 2 2003 2 2007 2009 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2

1,200,000 Malawi 4,500,000

4,000,000 1,000,000 1995 Cohort Track 3,500,000 2005 Cohort Track 3,000,000 800,000 G1 G2 2,500,000 G1 600,000 G2 G3 2,000,000 G3

G4 Enrolment Enrolment 1,500,000 G4 400,000 G5 G5 G6 1,000,000 G6 200,000 G7 500,000 G7 G8 G8 - 0 9 0 4 8 0 99 00 001 00 005 006 009 010 0 6 8 4 6 1 2 2 2002 2003 2 2 2 2007 20 2 2 9 9 9 0 0 9 9 9 0 0 1 1992 1994 1 1 2000 2002 2 2© [email protected] Equity Issues? Horizontal and vertical equity Access and Equity

• Girls and boys from the richest 20% are more than 8 times as likely to be in grade 9 as those from the poorest 20% in SSA. Urban residents are at least 5 times more likely to be in Grade 9 • Less than 50% of children will complete lower secondary school in SSA. About 95% will reach Grade 9 in China but less than 50% in India. Many will receive less than 150 days of schooling a year, and less than four hours a day time on task • In much of SSA and SA more than one third of children are overage by two years or more. Attendance may be less than 60% . Absenteeism is correlated with poverty and low achievement • GPIs based on NER average 95% in SSA + S Asia; many different patterns of GPI now exist, with wide intra-country variations; middle and high enrolment regions and countries enrol more girls • Less than 15% of schools provide more than 80% of university entrants in SSA, especially in science/engineering. Many graduates are over 25 years old Enrolments by Grade, Wealth and Gender

1 1

0.9 0.9

0.8 Rich Boys 0.8 Rich Boys

0.7 0.7 Rich/Male Rich/Male 0.6 Rich/Female 0.6 Rich/Female Middle/Male Middle/Male 0.5 0.5 Middle/Female Middle/Female 0.4 Poor/Male 0.4 Poor/Male % Participation Poor/Female % Participation 0.3 Poor Girls 0.3 Poor Girls Poor/Female

0.2 0.2

0.1 0.1

0 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Kenya Grade Uganda Grade

1 1

Rich Boys 0.9 0.9 Rich Boys 0.8 0.8

0.7 0.7 Rich/Male Rich/Male

0.6 Rich/Female 0.6 Rich/Female Middle/Male Middle/Male 0.5 0.5 Middle/Female Middle/Female 0.4 0.4 Poor/Male Poor/Male % P articipation % Participation Poor Girls Poor/Female Poor/Female 0.3 0.3

0.2 0.2 Poor Girls 0.1 0.1

0 0

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Ghana Malawi © [email protected] Grade Grade Enrolments by Age and Grade 2000-2009

900000 Uganda 1,200,000 Tanzania 800000 1,000,000 700000

600000 800,000

500000 G1 G1 G2 600,000 400000 G2 G3 G3 Enrolment Enrolment 300000 G4 400,000 G4 200000 G5 G5 G6 200,000 G6 100000 G7 G7 0 0 5 6 7 8 9 101112131415161718 19 20 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 Age Age

2000000 350,000 Malawi Ethiopia 1800000 300,000 1600000

250,000 1400000 G1 1200000 200,000 G2 1000000 G3 G1 150,000 G4 Enrolment 800000 G2 Enrolment G5 G3 100,000 600000 G4 G6 400000 G5 50,000 G7 G6 G8 200000 G7 G8 0 0 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17

1.6 More Girls 1.4 R2 = 0.5765 1.2

1.0

0.8

0.6

0.4 Gender Parity Index Parity Gender More Boys 0.2

0.0 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130

Gross Enrolment Secondary © [email protected] Enrolment of Boys and Girls by Age

80000

70000

60000

50000 Boys 40000 More Girls Girls Enrolment 30000 More Girls More Boys 20000

10000

0 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19

Total Enrolment and Percentage of Girls by Grade 50 48.1 47.8 2,000 Girls% 2005 47.2 46.7 46.2 46.0 45.6 45.5 45.6 45.9 Girls% 2004 45 1,800 Girls% 2003 1,659 Girls% 2002 40 1,600 Girls% 2001 Girls% 1999 35 38.2 1,400 Girls% 1997 35.9 Girls% 1995 33.8 32.8 32.9 Girls% 1993 30 1,257 1,200 30.5 Girls% 1990 29.5 28.7 25 27.5 27.6 1,000 Total 2005 856 Total 2004 713 20 669 800 Total 2003 Enrolment('000)

Percentageof Girls 606 Total 2002 15 535 600 Total 2001 442 397 Total 1999 531 10 332 400 Total 1997 255 391 Total 1995 330 5 280 200 Total 1993 184 161 133 Total 1990 0 119 112 0 G1 G2 G3 G4 G5 G6 G7 G8 G9 G10 Patterns of Achievement Achievement and Silent Exclusion

300 300

250 250

200 Normal Distribution

150 150 Positive Skew Negative Skew

100 NumberNumber ofof Candidates Candidates Number Candidates of

0 1 3 5 5 7 7 9 9 11 11 13 13 15 15 17 17 19 19 21 21 23 23 25 25 27 27 29 29 31 31 33 33 35 35 37 37 39 39 41 41 Performance IndicatorIndicator [email protected] © [email protected] Skewed Achievement Patterns

300 44% in Grade 6 250 Pass at Grade 3 level or below

200

150 Silent Exclusion 17% in Grade 6 Pass at Grade 6 100 Grade 6 or above

Number of Candidates 50

0 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31

-50

70 70

60 Positive Skew 50

Public Negative Skew 40

20 Private Percentage of Schools - Accra Public Accra - Schools of Percentage 10

0 Q5 Q4 Q3 Q2 Q1

250 GER Primary = 99% for Country A GER Primary = 99% for Country B 200

Country A NER Primary = 92% for Country A 150 if 25% of Grade 4-6 are overage NER Primary = 92% for Country B if 15% of Grade 4-6 are overage 100 Country B

Boys Girls Total Enrolled 520000 480000 1000000 School Age 547368 547368 1094737 GER 95.0% 87.7% 91.3% GPI 0.92 Unenrolled 27368 67368 Ratio Girls/Boys out of school 2.5 If 10% less girls in population Enrolled 520000 480000 1000000 School Age 576177 518559 1094737 GER 90.3% 92.6% 91.3% GPI 1.03 Unenrolled 56177 38559

Ratio Girls/Boys out of school © [email protected] 0.7 A 12 Point Framework Towards a Twelve Point Plan to Improve Access?

1. Early childhood health – stunting; debilitating infection; poor nutrition; cognitive disadvantage Regular school/clinic health checks; circles of support for children 2 Entry to school by age six – exclusion from pre school, late entry to grade 1, lack of birth registration, unfriendly schools Pro-poor pre-school; entry days; birth registrations, child seeking schools 3 Drop outs – supply and demand side push and pull; poverty and costs; relevance and motivation; locus of responsibility Child monitoring/follow up; child seeking schools; incentives 4 Silent exclusion –over age progression; poor attendance, ill health; low achievement; inadequate learning infrastructure Managing progression + attendance; tracking learning; investing in quality 5. Access to post primary –inequitable opportunity; exclusion linked to costs; boarding; curriculum relevance; effective demand; selection; tracking Selection; pro-poor subsidies; cost efficiencies; distance and size; demand led 6. Effective pedagogies –small schools, oversize schools and classes; mixed age groups; cognitive matching; mixed methods; time on task; relevance CPD and INSET; multigrade; curriculum development; school effectiveness Towards a Twelve Point Plan to Improve Access? 7. Buildings – inadequate building stock; lack of clean water and sanitation and services; poor infrastructure; no maintenance School mapping; affordable construction; preventative maintenance 8. Learning materials – poor availability; low quality; few enrichment materials and other learning and teaching aids; patterns of use; time on task Efficient procurement/distribution of learning materials/aids 9. Teachers – poor supply and distribution; compromised time on task; limited subject and pedagogic knowledge and skill Improved deployment; targeted support; effective management 10. Assessment and monitoring of learning – unreliable data on participation and learning; little tracking of children; poor evidence base for policy Investment in data collection and monitoring; track progress; commission analyses 11. Adequate financing – unbalanced investment across sectors; gaps in financing EFA goals; low allocations of GDP and govt budget; inefficiency, corruption Balanced sectoral investment; control unit costs; manage growth and resources 12. Indicators of progress – current indicators aggregate participation and conceal inequities; confidence levels often unavailable; changes ambiguous Develop better indicators that monitor efficiency and effectiveness and equity www.create-rpc.org

Review of Research on Educational Access, Transitions and Equity Perspectives, Patterns and Policy Implications

Keith M Lewin

Bangladesh, Ghana, India, South Africa China, Kenya, Malawi, Sri Lanka