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Meteorological Conditions During the Mosaic Expedition: Normal Or Anomalous?

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Meteorological Conditions During the Mosaic Expedition: Normal Or Anomalous? Rinke, A, et al. 2021. Meteorological conditions during the MOSAiC expedition: Normal or anomalous?. Elem Sci Anth,9:1.DOI:https:// doi.org/10.1525/elementa.2021.00023 RESEARCH ARTICLE Meteorological conditions during the MOSAiC expedition: Normal or anomalous? Annette Rinke1, John J. Cassano2,3,*, Elizabeth N. Cassano2, Ralf Jaiser1, and Do¨rthe Handorf1 This article sets the near-surface meteorological conditions during the Multidisciplinary drifting Downloaded from http://online.ucpress.edu/elementa/article-pdf/9/1/00023/474726/elementa.2021.00023.pdf by guest on 25 September 2021 Observatory for the Study of Arctic Climate expedition in the context of the interannual variability and extremes within the past 4 decades. Hourly ERA5 reanalysis data for the Polarstern trajectory for 1979–2020 are analyzed. The conditions were relatively normal given that they were mostly within the interquartile range of the preceding 4 decades. Nevertheless, some anomalous and even record-breaking conditions did occur, particularly during synoptic events. Extreme cases of warm, moist air transported from the northern North Atlantic or northwestern Siberia into the Arctic were identified from late fall until early spring. Daily temperature and total column water vapor were classified as being among the top- ranking warmest/wettest days or even record-breaking based on the full record. Associated with this, the longwave radiative fluxes at the surface were extremely anomalous for these winter cases. The winter and spring period was characterized by more frequent storm events and median cyclone intensity ranking in the top 25th percentile of the full record. During summer, near melting point conditions were more than a month longer than usual, and the July and August 2020 mean conditions were the all-time warmest and wettest. These record conditions near the Polarstern were embedded in large positive temperature and moisture anomalies over the whole central Arctic. In contrast, unusually cold conditions occurred during the beginning of November 2019 and in early March 2020, related to the Arctic Oscillation. In March, this was linked with anomalously strong and persistent northerly winds associated with frequent cyclone occurrence to the southeast of the Polarstern. Keywords: MOSAiC, Meteorological conditions, Interannual variability, ERA5 1. Introduction atmosphere-ice-ocean-biogeochemistry-ecosystem. To place The Multidisciplinary drifting Observatory for the Study of the single MOSAiC year of data in a broader climate context, Arctic Climate (MOSAiC) expedition (Shupe et al., 2020) it is important to know whether the expedition occurred was a yearlong (October 2019–September 2020) drift with under “normal” or “unusual” conditions. This study focuses the sea ice across the central Arctic Ocean, based around on the near-surface meteorological conditions experienced the German icebreaker Polarstern. Its overarching goal was during the MOSAiC expedition and compares these to a long- to study the climate of the “new” Arctic (https://mosaic- term reanalysis record. expedition.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/mosaic_ Before the start of MOSAiC, the conditions in the Arctic scienceplan.pdf), which is characterized by warming were exceptional with record warm air temperatures in temperatures, retreating and thinning sea ice, and changing summer 2019, the longest ice-free summer period since atmospheric and ocean circulation (e.g., Stroeve and Notz, 1979, and unusually thin sea ice (Krumpen et al., 2020). 2018; Box et al., 2019). A major goal of MOSAiC is to improve The MOSAiC winter of 2019/2020 attracted a lot of atten- the understanding of Arctic climate processes and the com- tion because the Arctic stratosphere featured an excep- plex interactions and feedbacks within the coupled tionally strong and cold polar vortex and related extreme ozone loss, accompanied by an unprecedentedly 1 Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marie Research, Alfred positive phase of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) during Janu- Wegener Institute, Potsdam, Germany ary–March 2020 (Wohltmann et al., 2020; Lawrence et al., 2 National Snow and Ice Data Center, Cooperative Institute for 2020; Manney et al., 2020). Related to this, unprece- Research in Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO, USA dented warming over Eurasia and particularly the Kara 3 Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, University and Laptev Seas regions was reported for those winter of Colorado, Boulder, CO, USA months. During spring and summer 2020, mean tempera- * Corresponding author: tures were above normal for most of the Arctic (Ballinger Email: [email protected] et al., 2020), with Siberia observing record-breaking Art. 9(1) page 2 of 17 Rinke et al: MOSAiC meteorological conditions temperatures associated with a persistent Siberian heat the data are within the IQR, we consider them being wave (Overland and Wang, 2020). For the actual MOSAiC “normal.” If the data are out of IQR but still within the drift path and speed, and the sea-ice conditions (such as 5th–95th percentile range, we consider them “unusual” or thickness, melt ponds, etc.), the atmospheric circulation “anomalous.” If data are above/below the 95th/5th per- patterns and associated anomalies in near-surface wind, centiles, we consider them being “extremely anomalous” temperature, and radiation are relevant. or “record-breaking.” This is equivalent with the 3 top The aim of this article is to characterize the 12-month highest/lowest rankings considering the full record time series of near-surface meteorological conditions dur- 1979–2020. The application of a standard 30-year clima- ing the MOSAiC expedition and compare this with the tological reference period from 1981 to 2010 confirms our previous 41 years (1979–2019). This study is based on the conclusions about the “anomalous” events. In addition, we European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts used the recent decade 2010–2019 as a reference period (ECMWF) fifth generation reanalysis ERA5 (Hersbach et to characterize the state of the “new Arctic.” al., 2020). This reanalysis has been selected because of its We cover the full annual cycle of MOSAiC. This includes high resolution (ca. 30 km horizontal and 1 hourly tem- the passive (drifting) and active (steaming) ship time. At poral resolutions) and use of a significantly more the following dates, the Polarstern was located at a perma- Downloaded from http://online.ucpress.edu/elementa/article-pdf/9/1/00023/474726/elementa.2021.00023.pdf by guest on 25 September 2021 advanced 4D-var assimilation scheme, as well as its nent ice station and passively drifting with the ice: Octo- improved performance over the Arctic (Graham et al., ber 4, 2019 to May 15, 2020 (Legs 1–3), June 18, 2020 to 2019a; Graham et al., 2019b). Still, similar to other reana- July 30, 2020 (Leg 4), and August 22, 2020 to September lyses, ERA5 struggles with a few Arctic specifics. These 19, 2020 (Leg 5). include a positive wintertime 2-m air temperature (T2M) bias which is largest during very cold stable conditions 2.1. Near-surface meteorological data and is associated with poorly represented surface inver- The following ERA5 data were used to characterize the sions and turbulent heat fluxes over sea ice (Graham et al., near-surface meteorological conditions: mean sea level 2019a). However, since these are systematic biases, and pressure (MSLP), 2 m and 850 hPa air temperature, 10 because this study compares ERA5 conditions during the m wind speed and direction, total column water vapor MOSAiC year to ERA5 conditions during the previous 4 (TCWV), and surface radiation components. For these vari- decades, these biases are likely not relevant. Future work ables, hourly ERA5 data from October 1, 2019, through based on MOSAiC meteorological observations can pro- September 30, 2020 (Figure S1) were extracted for the 4 vide a comparison between ERA5 and the actual meteo- grid points nearest to the Polarstern position. Along the rology observed during the expedition, but since these same MOSAiC trajectory, the hourly 4-grid-points data data are currently still being quality controlled, the cur- were extracted for the preceding 41 years of 1979–2019. rent reanalysis—only results presented here provides a first In addition to the time series, box plots (with median, IQR, assessment of the MOSAiC expedition meteorology and its and minimum–maximum range) and the probability den- comparison to the prior decades. sity functions from Kernel density estimation with Gauss- By assessing the MOSAiC’s meteorological conditions in ian kernels are presented to identify changes in the the context of interannual variability and extremes within distribution of the considered variables. To identify any the past 4 decades, this study will document whether the record conditions, we ranked both the daily and monthly MOSAiC conditions, along the drift track, were close to the values for the full period from 1979 to 2020. All results long-term mean or exceptional and identify any record con- are the same regardless whether one simply averages the 4 ditions. Furthermore, this analysis will highlight some grid points or calculates a distance-weighted average; interesting meteorological situations and synoptic events thus, the first approach is used. Spatial monthly anomaly that can be the focus of future studies. maps with respect to the 41-year climatology are calcu- lated to indicate regionally unusual conditions. 2. Data based on ERA5 Statistics of near-surface meteorological conditions and 2.2. Cyclone detection and tracking cyclones, based on ERA5, are calculated for each month Along with the near-surface meteorological conditions of the MOSAiC year, from October 2019 to September described above, cyclones that impacted the MOSAiC drift 2020, as well as for the previous 41 years, from 1979 to were analyzed. For this analysis, all cyclone centers whose 2019. The latter period is used as the long-term reference. closed isobars encompass the Polarstern location were con- The statistics for the MOSAiC and pre-MOSAiC years are sidered.The cyclone tracking algorithm used for this work is compared.
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