Commissioned by IIEX
Regeneration Plan for Derry~Londonderry
Volume One: Foundation Document
Baseline Analysis and SWG Summary Reports
1.1 Ba fff June 2010
1.2
2
Contents Page
Part 1: Baseline Analysis 003
Part 2: Modelling Results 141
Part 3: Citi-Scope Residents Survey 146
Part 4: SWG Foundation Documents 166
Part 5: SWG Actions: Long-list to short-list 211
Part 6: A proposal for the growth of the higher education 226
provision in Derry~Londonderry to 2020, within
the framework of the Mark II Regeneration Plan.
Part 1: Baseline 3
Section Page
Building a Baseline 4
The Economic Context 12
Derry~Londonderry Today and Tomorrow 21
Looking Within – A City of Disparity 88
An Urban Comparison 108
The Challenge 118
Summary – Business as Usual is not Acceptable 124
Annex A: North West Baseline Forecast Summary 126
Annex B: Urban Local Authorities Used For 130 Benchmarking Annex C: Oxford Economics‟ Suite of Forecast 131 Models Linked to Citi-Scope Model Annex D: Citi-Scope Ward Module Methodology 135
Annex E: Citi-Scope Ward Baseline Forecast 140 Profiles
Part 1 – Baseline 4
Building a Baseline
Introduction
Ilex Urban Regeneration Company Limited (Ilex) commissioned Oxford Economics in April 2009 to develop an econometric model of the North West Region (known as the Citi-Scope model) in order to support the development of the strategic masterplan. More specifically, the key objectives of Oxford Economics‟ wider contribution to the masterplan are to:
. Produce a „live‟ socio-economic statistical baseline profile of the region (the district council areas of Derry~Londonderry, Strabane and Limavady and parts of Donegal); and
. Construct a „city region‟ econometric model capable of forecasting and evaluating the performance of key policy decisions.
This report presents the socio-economic baseline profile of the region. It also provides a discussion of the current and future macroeconomic context and a detailed profile of the Derry~Londonderry and North West economy.
In addition it provides a discussion of how the Citi-Scope Model can measure and forecast inequality and identifies the scale of the challenge facing the Derry~Londonderry economy.
In many ways, the report overlaps with existing work completed by Indecon, PwC and Oxford Economics (see a list of these reports further below). However it fills a number of gaps by providing an update on the recession and its impact; covering wider North West analysis including the incorporation of Donegal performance and forecasts; and undertaking for the first time ward-level analysis and forecasts.
Therefore it should be used as a report to discuss the baseline „policy neutral‟ outcome for the North West Region and the scale of the challenge, and to agree the platform upon which the Regeneration Strategy will be built.
Part 1: Baseline 5
Background
Ilex Urban Regeneration Company Limited was set up in July 2003 by the Office of the First Minister and Deputy First Minister (OFMDFM) and the Department for Social Development (DSD).
Its role is to plan, develop and sustain the economic, physical and social regeneration of the Derry~Londonderry City Council Area. Ilex‟s mission is:
“To create and promote a deliverable vision for the regeneration of Derry~Londonderry, to secure the community‟s commitment to that vision, and to pursue single-mindedly its implementation”
Historically Derry~Londonderry and the wider North West Region have lagged behind more prosperous areas in NI east of the River Bann. This includes the Belfast Metropolitan Area, the widely acknowledged regional driver of the NI economy.
As discussed later in this report, the achievement of economic convergence poses a significant challenge. However it is a challenge that has received considerable political support:
“Our aim is to deliver in Derry~Londonderry the best regeneration any city in these islands has ever seen” Margaret Ritchie, Minister for Department for Social Development, December 2007
To date, there have been a number of strategic interventions by Ilex in the priority areas of education, transport and infrastructure, retail, tourism, arts and culture, spatial planning and branding. In addition, Masterplans for Fort George and Ebrington have been launched and work commenced, while future projects have been planned and started.
Furthermore, there have been a number of studies on the local economy that include:
. “Urban Regeneration Baseline Study of Derry~Londonderry City Council Area”: This report completed by Indecon International was a baseline study of the area to help inform the development of the Ilex Regeneration Plan.
. “Labour Market Study”: This report, produced jointly by Oxford Economics and PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC), provided a labour market analysis with ten-year forecasts, a review of relevant policies, and recommendations for the future.
. “Addressing the Gap in Educational Attainment and Qualification in Derry”: Produced by PwC and Oxford Economics, this research assessed alternate futures for the Derry~Londonderry
Part 1: Baseline 6
economy from changes to educational outcomes (at KS2 and GCSE level), higher education expansion and a reduction in economic inactivity.
. “Comparative analysis of Derry~Londonderry‟s economic performance”: This report by Oxford Economics provided a comparison of Derry‟s recent economic performance against a number of comparator urban areas in NI, GB and ROI.
Against this backdrop, Ilex felt a need to understand and consider how the city and North West economy might look in the future, what the challenges facing the city and region were, and subsequently the approach needed to achieve the aim of:
„To reach, within a reasonable timescale, a situation where we have an economically sustainable city making a net economic contribution to the local economy (NI) and to the Island – a city paying its way in the world‟
Citi-Scope Model
The Citi-Scope model being developed by Oxford Economics for use by Ilex is a tool to assist decision makers in making choices. It is being designed to support the development of the Regeneration Mark II plan and provide ongoing support to Ilex and its partners going forward. The model will be handed over to Ilex upon completion.
The model will help to provide empirical evidence to not only quantify the impact of the regeneration plan, but other specific developments which may be under consideration, now or in future.
Coverage
The Citi-Scope Model is a user-friendly, comprehensive econometric model for the North West (Derry~Londonderry, Limavady, Strabane, Donegal); and Derry~Londonderry wards. It incorporates data, analysis and forecasts, under a baseline and alternate future scenarios, for:
. Demographics (population, housing stock, migration etc);
. Workplace economy (employee jobs by sector, self-employment and sectoral GVA);
. Labour market (resident employment, unemployment and inactivity);
. Skill supply and demand;
Part 1: Baseline 7
. Employment land demand;
. Commuting and traffic flows;
. Environmental accounts;
. Tourism demand;
. Fiscal accounts (spending, revenue and overall balance); and
. Selected economic appraisal output results (consistent with HM Treasury and DFP Green Book).
It also has an in-built „warning flagging‟ system to highlight where demand or supply bottlenecks are likely to hinder realisation of a particular scenario outcome.
Given the modular design of the Citi-Scope Model, other modules, data and capacity / functionality can be added at later a date.
The model itself provides the holistic evidence base (from people to projects) to ground the Regeneration Strategy. It will, for the first time, offer ward level accounting and forecasts of all citizens and workers, alongside fiscal balance analysis, traffic flows and environmental accounts.
As a result, the Citi-Scope model should, in theory if used appropriately, prevent a „wish list‟ regeneration plan and avoid the inconsistencies so common in the myriad of projects / initiatives that are often treated in isolation.
Box 1.1: Modelling limitations
It is worth however highlighting the limitations of modelling in this context. Not every intervention can be modelled as a scenario (e.g. governance, community cohesion) and a successful regeneration strategy will achieve more than just economic growth (e.g. improvement in quality of life).
In addition econometric models are only as good as the data available and the assumptions employed. The quality of data at district council level in NI is very poor indeed (and worse at ward level). Furthermore, keeping the model up to date is vital and can undermine its usefulness if it is not carried out. Models can also be complex to run, understand and interpret (but ensuring it is well documented and designed can mitigate against this risk). Finally, acceptance of results is imperative for the work to have merit.
Part 1: Baseline 8
The model is not designed to replace existing methodologies but rather to bring best practice in assessing the economic and social benefit of projects under one simplified roof and add value to the debate by thinking about the collective impacts of a range of developments running concurrently or in sequence.
It will complement existing methods within government and produce results (i.e. the economic appraisal output results) to input into the processes which central government carry out when assessing project evaluations and impact assessments. The design of the model will be such that the outputs would be set out in a way as to be both robust enough to be acceptable for scrutiny and transparent enough to be understood and, where appropriate, be challenged and re-visited.
To this end, the model is being built using clearly defined data and is underpinned by robust and transparent assumptions which are fully documented. It will carry out the standard impact tests that would be carried out for a given project (for example looking at direct, indirect and induced impacts and gross versus net impacts, net present value analysis and assessing fiscal implications etc) and present these results in an easy to understand format.
However beyond that, it will look at the wider implications of a project that is not typically fully explored in an impact assessment. For example exploring the supply-side requirements of a new investment and the equality implications – who will work in the new project, what will be their skills, will in- migration be required and if so what will its impacts be? It will benchmark the changes made post- project to the economy and test these for plausibility (using a ranking system). As said above, it will present risk „flags‟ to warn of potential skills shortages, land shortages or environmental concerns (for example) that a project may raise.
As such the model is designed to look at both the demand and supply issues with respect to any development or initiative and to do so in a consistent and inclusive manner. By looking at the impacts of plans in this holistic way, the spatial, equality, infrastructure and environmental aspects of proposed initiatives can be considered collectively. This in itself should bring benefits to the regeneration process and prioritisation of initiatives by improving understanding of potential consequences or issues that an intervention, policy or investment might cause that would not be immediately apparent.
The model will provide a fully consistent set of economic accounts for the North West Region for the final regeneration plan. It will also provide evidence during the process of strategy development to help fine-tune policy suggestions and the potential impacts across the area. This in turn will help the sequencing of the final proposed strategy, which is vital to ensure expected outcomes are more likely realised.
Part 1: Baseline 9
Sustainability of Citi-Scope
The Citi-Scope Model will provide Ilex with an evidence tool to present transparent impact assessment results for a range of investments, thus reducing future costs associated with this basic „evidence gathering‟ stage of many impact assessments. In addition its „on the desktop‟ nature will allow Ilex to examine a wider range of options or re-visit minor „tweaks‟ to existing options without incurring significant cost or need to engage third parties.
The model is being designed in Excel to aid use and transparency and will be updated by Oxford Economics for a period of three years. Updating is a relatively straightforward process and as the model will be developed to allow adjustment of assumptions as new evidence comes on stream, it will thereby remain valid for a period beyond the lifecycle of this project.
It is hoped that elements of the model and its design will be transferable to other applications as the time-series nature and „collective consideration‟ of a range of initiatives should represent an innovative and holistic approach to assessing large-scale multi-initiative economic development schemes.
Wider engagement
The Oxford Economics team have been engaging with experts around Northern Ireland (including government officials, leading economists and Ilex members) to ensure the model is as robust as it possibly can be. The model will not remove the need for full impact assessments nor will all of the assumptions be un-challengeable. However as a tool it should improve understanding of potential impacts of a wide range of policies and save Ilex resources going forward. The development of the model has and will continue to be shared with an expert Steering Group and the model tweaked to respond to queries and concerns raised by members of the group.
Purpose of the baseline report
This report presents the Citi-Scope Model‟s estimates of the current and future trends in the Derry~Londonderry and Wider North West economies under a baseline „policy neutral‟ scenario, including analysis at Derry~Londonderry ward level. It is designed to inform the development of the Regeneration Plan by:
. Presenting an understanding of the macro environment within which the Regeneration Plan will be implemented;
. Showing the likely future path for the local economy in the absence of new initiatives;
Part 1: Baseline 10
. Identifying where, and by how much, the local economy is under-performing and over-performing;
. Measuring the scale of the challenge facing the Regeneration Plan; and
. Suggesting possible areas for initiatives to focus.
It is against the baseline outcomes contained in this report that the expected outcomes from the draft Regeneration Plan will be compared.
Future deliverables to Ilex
In working towards a new Regeneration Plan for Derry~Londonderry, there will be a number of additional deliverables to Ilex. The 13 Sector Working Groups (SWGs) are currently discussing and formulating a suite of initiatives aimed at achieving the overall vision for a future Derry~Londonderry. Oxford Economics will engage with the SWGs and provide feedback on these initiatives and identify which can be estimated using the Citi-Scope model.
A set of impact results (where applicable) for the final set of initiatives will be produced and a short section quantifying the potential impact of the overall strategy written for inclusion in the Regeneration Plan.
In addition to this input into the development of the Regeneration Plan, Oxford Economics will also provide Ilex with a technical explanation of the model and a manual setting out how the model is operated, and hand over the Citi-Scope model (in Excel).
Report structure
This report takes the following structure:
. Chapter 2: The economic context – this chapter provides a discussion of the wider global and macroeconomic environment and implications for the Derry~Londonderry economy. It also provides the wider economic context within which the Regeneration Plan will be implemented;
. Chapter 3: Derry~Londonderry today and tomorrow – the next chapter presents a comprehensive review of historic and forecast economic trends in the local economy. It articulates the likely future position in the absence of any new initiative for Derry~Londonderry and for the wider North West economy;
Part 1: Baseline 11
. Chapter 4: Looking within – a city of disparity - this chapter provides analysis of within Derry~Londonderry performance and forecasts at ward level and in doing so, considers the absolute and relative extent of disparities today and tomorrow (in the absence of new initiatives);
. Chapter 5: An urban comparison – based on evidence from previous chapters, this chapter highlights the challenges facing the region by benchmarking Derry~Londonderry with other UK urban economies (note data limitations prevent similar comparisons with ROI urban economies);
. Chapter 6: Understanding the challenge ahead – building on chapter 5, this chapter further articulates the challenge facing Derry~Londonderry and considers issues of „scale‟ in terms of addressing the challenge.
. Chapter 7: Summary – business as usual is not acceptable – a concluding chapter which reaffirms why the „do nothing‟ baseline outcome is not an acceptable scenario for the region, especially given Ilex‟s aspirations;
. Annex A: North West baseline forecast summary;
. Annex B: Urban local authorities used in urban benchmarking analysis in chapter 5;
. Annex C: Overview of Oxford Economics‟ suite of forecast models which link to the Citi-Scope Model;
. Annex D: Citi-Scope ward module methodology; and
. Annex E: Citi-Scope ward baseline forecast profiles
Part 1: Baseline 12
The Economic Context
Understanding the context
The recession, which has engulfed the global economy in 2008/09, has brought unprecedented change to almost every economy in the world. The scale and severity of the recession took everyone by surprise, economists included, and the outlook for recovery remains uncertain and lined with challenges. Despite some welcome cushioning from southern shoppers, Derry~Londonderry has, just like the rest of Ireland, North and South, experienced the effect of the recession.
It is important to examine this economic backdrop to help understand the baseline forecasts and to make sure the Regeneration Plan is appropriate in a post-debt world.
An unprecedented scale of recession
The recession is expected to have contracted the world economy by -2.1% in 2009, the first global recession since the Second World War. For many countries, the contraction was much worse, reaching depression levels in some areas (Table 2.1).
Table 2.1: GDP annual growth, selected countries 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 United States 2.7 2.1 0.4 -2.5 3.2 3.0 3.2 3.1 Japan 2.0 2.3 -1.2 -5.3 1.2 1.6 2.1 2.4 Eurozone 3.1 2.7 0.5 -4.0 1.0 1.6 2.1 2.4 Ireland 5.4 6.0 -3.0 -7.1 -0.9 2.9 3.3 3.3 Germany 3.4 2.6 1.0 -5.0 1.5 1.9 2.1 2.3 France 2.4 2.3 0.3 -2.2 1.2 1.4 1.8 2.2 UK 2.9 2.6 0.6 -4.8 1.2 2.3 3.0 3.3 Italy 2.1 1.5 -1.0 -4.8 0.8 1.1 1.8 2.2 China 11.6 13.0 9.6 8.7 9.6 9.1 9.0 9.0 India 9.9 9.4 7.5 6.7 7.4 9.1 9.0 8.8 Source: Country National Statistical Authorities, Oxford Economics Note: Forecasts as of 3rd February 2010
The recession was primarily a function of an unwinding of debt and the associated impacts that this had on global trade, confidence and asset values. For countries where the housing boom was most acute (such as Ireland and Spain) the recession had a much more pronounced impact. Equally there has been a much sharper contraction where countries are susceptible to world demand fluctuations (such as Germany and Japan).
The US has not suffered as markedly as originally feared, especially given the level of sub-prime mortgages within the country – which many people attribute to be the spark that ignited the melt down.
Part 1: Baseline 13
The UK has experienced a sharp contraction, but interestingly it has suffered much less in job loss terms than competitor countries, such as the US or the Eurozone average. This is partly due to more modest falls in the construction sector but also reflects the harsh reality that this recession, like almost all others, has impacted most heavily in job terms on the production sectors of the economy. As Table 2.2 shows, Ireland is on a totally different scale of job loss than anywhere else.
Table 2.2: Total employment annual average growth, selected countries
1998-08 2008-11 2011-20 United States 1.1 -0.7 1.2 Japan -0.2 -0.7 -0.1 Eurozone 1.4 -1.0 0.4 Ireland 3.8 -5.2 1.7 Germany 0.6 -0.3 0.0 France 1.1 -0.7 0.4 UK 0.9 -0.8 0.6 Italy 1.4 -1.0 0.1 Spain 4.6 -2.2 1.9 Source: Country National Statistical Authorities, Oxford Economics Note: Forecasts as of 3rd February 2010
In addition to falling levels of employment, the recession has also resulted in productivity falls across most countries (most notably Germany and Japan) which have further impacted on overall output. The output gap (i.e. the difference between actual and potential output) is likely to lead to a jobless recovery; in other words as demand begins to rise, we expect to see improvements in productivity before any real gains in the labour market (in terms of net new job creation).
Table 2.3: Productivity annual average growth, selected countries
Productivity growth (%) 1998-08 2008-09 2008-11 2011-20 United States 1.7 1.4 2.1 1.9 Japan 1.5 -3.8 -0.2 1.7 Eurozone 0.8 -2.3 0.5 1.7 Ireland 2.4 1.4 4.1 2.3 Germany 0.9 -4.9 -0.3 2.1 France 1.0 -1.0 0.8 1.5 UK 1.8 -3.1 0.3 2.3 Italy -0.1 -3.3 0.0 1.5 Spain -0.4 3.1 1.4 0.7 Source: Country National Statistical Authorities, Oxford Economics Note: Forecasts as of 3rd February 2010
Part 1: Baseline 14
A long road back
The implication of a recession that has resulted in falling productivity in the UK is that the outlook for job creation is at best modest as firms seek to rebuild productivity levels (Figure 2.1). Firms appear to have adapted to changing conditions, through reduction in working hours / overtime, taking on less staff and natural wastage, rather than rapid job cuts. This has been helpful in the short-term, as unemployment has not peaked at the level previously projected. However it does mean that the route back will be slow and offer only limited job opportunities.
As noted above, recovery is therefore likely to result in productivity improvements before any real gains in employment are seen. As such we expected employment levels to remain broadly static over the short term, before returning to subdued rates of growth.
Fig 2.1: Total employment, UK and NI
1050 35000 1000 NI (LHS) 950 UK (RHS) 900 30000 850 800 750 25000
700 Totalemployment (000's) Totalemployment (000's) 650 600 20000
1981 1985 1989 1993 1997 2001 2005 2009 2013 2017
Source: ONS, DETI, LFS, Oxford Economics
Unemployment is likely to stay higher than in the recent past, which was previously kept low by the high level of demand in secondary activities (such as construction and retailing) resulting from the credit and consequent housing boom (Fig 2.2). This „new norm‟ in labour market conditions will change the face of government policy with job creation firmly back on the agenda nationally and locally.
Unemployment levels may be lower if the level of out migration proves greater than currently projected (as it is expected to do so in Ireland), but this in itself would dampen demand for a range of services, not least the construction sector.
Part 1: Baseline 15
Fig 2.2: Claimant unemployment rate, UK and NI
18.00 16.00 NI (LHS) 14.00 UK (RHS) 12.00 10.00 8.00 6.00 4.00
Unemployment(%) rate 2.00 0.00
1981 1985 1989 1993 1997 2001 2005 2009 2013 2017
Source: NOMIS, Oxford Economics Note: Claimant unemployment rates shown in Figure 2.2 are mid year points
Rebalancing debt - a long-term problem
A future reason for a modest outlook in jobs and spending growth for the UK (and thereby NI also) and ROI, is the need to rebuild balance sheets - by businesses, governments and individuals.
Corporate balance sheets may be beginning to improve already as world trade picks up and firms begin to produce again following a period of running down stocks.
However the situation for individuals and governments looks much more challenging. The process of rebalancing debt is likely to take a decade or more with the UK and ROI governments both seeking to improve public finances by reducing spending and possibly raising taxes. Though it must be said that the ROI government has been swifter to act with painful squeezes in UK and NI public finances likely to occur later and possibly be drawn out for longer.
Consumers will also have to rebalance debt though interestingly this may affect UK and NI consumers more. Unlike in the UK, the personal saving ratio in ROI did not collapse during the boom years. In fact ROI has one of the highest personal saving ratios in Europe which may surprise some readers. Although no NI personal saving ratio data exists, it is likely to be closer to the UK than ROI in our view.
It is unclear precisely how and at what rate personal debt will be reduced. Indeed for consumers debt may not fall at all as was the case in the 1990s (although the UK personal saving ratio did rise).
Part 1: Baseline 16
However it is unlikely that consumer debt will rise further and this, in our view, will be a key feature of the decade ahead.
To conclude on this section, with the fiscal deficit at 9% and 11% of GDP in UK1 and ROI respectively in 2009 and the personal savings ratio (percent of disposable income not consumed) at 5% in the UK (from 0% previously), it is clear the scale of rebalancing required.
Fig 2.3: Personal saving ratio, UK and ROI
% disposable income
15 Forecast
ROI 10
5 UK
0 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015
-5 Source:Source: ONS,CSO, ONS,CSO, Oxford Oxford Economics Economics
Fig 2.4: Government fiscal deficits, UK and ROI
1 Public sector borrowing requirement
Part 1: Baseline 17
% GDP ROI general government Forecast 5% balance % GDP
0% 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014
-5%
UK PSNB -10%
-15% Source: HM Treasury, ONS, Department of Finance, CSO, Oxford Economics
The response to debt rebalancing has been interesting and very different across the UK and Ireland. Ireland has made explicit pledges, had two „tax‟ budgets and a „spending cut‟ budget in the space of 18 months. This has been well received internationally but has a marked impact on local spending and consumer confidence. The UK has been more circumspect, looking to suggest future savings but continuing to spend heavily during recession. This might be termed a so-called Keynesian response – though behaviour pre-recession was rather less Keynesian so it has been something of a „death bed conversion‟.
For Northern Ireland there has been little fiscal impact to date. The cost of benefits are a Westminster issue and do not impact upon the Executive‟s available funds and the budgets have brought small additional monies – though efficiency saving programmes are underway. Nevertheless the state of NI public finances is clearly unsustainable and pressure is coming on public funds, an important contextual backdrop for the Regeneration Plan.
Borders and trade
Derry~Londonderry is the largest UK city with a mainland border with ROI and hence the Eurozone. Clearly the operation of two currencies either side of the border has an important macroeconomic influence on the North West economy.
Part 1: Baseline 18
In recent times it has been cross-border shopping flows, driven by the exchange rate (but also the often overlooked sharper rise in domestic inflation in ROI), which has been the most visible example of this influence.
CSO and the Office of the Revenue Commissioners estimate total cross-border shopping by households from ROI in 2008 to northern retailers to be something in the order of €350m-€550m (excluding vehicle purchases). A breakdown of this figure for cross-border spending in Derry~Londonderry, Newry, Enniskillen etc is not available. This spending has helpfully masked some of the reigning back of consumer spend by NI residents in locations such as Derry~Londonderry. To put this estimate of cross-border retail spending in context, NI‟s total out-of-state tourist visitor spending in 2008 was just under £400m.
The fragility of this significant spending flow however, which is dependent on the exchange rate, VAT, inflation and pricing policies of major retailers etc, is a further important contextual point. Although some rebalancing in the exchange rate towards a stronger value for Sterling is expected (Fig 2.5), tax changes are reducing the cost differential with VAT in the UK being restored to 17.5%, and prices are falling in the south driven in part by supermarkets purchasing cheaper products from GB in Sterling (thereby being able to charge lower Euro prices). Although the overall effect of these developments is almost impossible to accurately predict, their potential impact on Derry~Londonderry and thus on its economic vision and opportunities, should not be understated.
FUK:ig 2.5: Exchange US Dollar andrates Euro exchange rate versus £ sterling 2.2 Forecast
2.0 US$/£ Sterling strengthening 1.8
1.6 Sterling weakening 1.4
Euro/£ 1.2
1.0 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 Source: Oxford Economics
Part 1: Baseline 19
Recovery – if and when?
Economic recovery is technically underway at the time of writing (early 2010) and all recessions do come to an end. However the legacy of debt on finances which remain to be rebalanced (especially in the public sector) and only limited improvement likely in the construction sector, mean that 2010 may see economic growth, but this is likely to be fairly anaemic and do little to regain the losses of 2008/09.
Table 2.4: GDP growth, UK, ROI and NI
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 UK 2.9 2.6 0.6 -4.8 1.2 2.3 3.0 3.3 Ireland 5.4 6.0 -3.0 -7.1 -0.9 2.9 3.3 3.3 NI (GVA) 2.9 2.6 0.1 -4.4 1.4 1.6 2.3 3.0 Source: ONS, ONS Regional Accounts, CSO, Oxford Economics
There are a range of risks to the forecast recovery, which could alter the economic backdrop upon which the Regeneration Plan operates .These include:
. Public sector job cuts: It is not clear the extent to which improvements in public finances will be found in spending savings and to what extent it will be through tax rises. Either outcome has the potential to destabilise the recovery through limiting demand and thus growth.
. World demand: If the world economy can return to its pre-recession growth rates (which debt re- balancing suggests is unlikely) then the knock on effect could be a more sharp economic recovery (often referred to as a „V‟ shaped recovery).
. Double dip: There has been considerable debate over the possibility of a so called „double dip‟ recession as rising VAT may be coupled with other tax rises, rising inflation and banks calling time on companies with high levels of debt. This could push the economy back into recession in 2010. On the upside this would curtail interest rate rises.
. Energy prices: Though a risk across the globe, the possibility of rising commodity prices would have a direct impact upon the Derry~Londonderry economy. Being more peripheral, transport costs are particularly crucial to the Derry economy.
. Consumer spending: If tax rises prove sharper than expected or NI budget cuts/tax rises are more severe than expected, then consumers could retrench further which would have an adverse impact.
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As a result, the forecasts presented in this report are subject to a number of downside risks. However the recovery that has spread across the global economy (with some exceptions) is gathering pace at present. At the time of writing US growth has continued to outperform expectations. There is therefore scope for upward revisions to our forecasts as new data becomes available.
Implications for Derry~Londonderry and the Regeneration plan
The economic backdrop matters for a wide range of reasons, but looking at Derry~Londonderry there are a number of ways in which it will have a specific impact:
. Funding environment: Over the lifecycle of the Regeneration Plan, the public purse will be under extreme pressure and new funding streams harder to come by. The need to generate long (and even shorter-term) returns will be crucial and the exploration of innovative alternative funding streams will also be required. In addition, public sector spending will come under more scrutiny and be subject to more intense value for money assessments;
. Access to credit: Over the short and medium-term, access to credit will be restricted (or at least more expensive) for both businesses and individuals, therefore limiting private sector demand and potentially investment;
. Vulnerability to exchange rates: There is a clear risk that the exchange rate could move in a less favourable direction (and other important influences such as inflation) and thus undermine the cross border retail flows which have been very important in Derry~Londonderry‟s recent economic performance;
. Public sector jobs: Linked to the financial pressures facing the public sector, the possibility of significant job creation in public services is limited. Equally this could work against the relocation of public sector jobs across NI. for which Derry~Londonderry was one of the first tier nominations for relocation from Belfast; and
. Competition from other locations: The recession has made every western location desperate to generate job growth and many with excess labour supply (and better offerings than Derry~Londonderry). This will make it even more challenging to create employment, attract FDI and keep relative costs (wages and others) nationally and internationally competitive.
Part: Baseline 21
Derry ~ Londonderry today and tomorrow
This section presents the baseline outlook for the Derry~Londonderry economy from the Citi-Scope Model, consistent with the macro context described in the previous chapter.
The chapter is structured around the following sub-headings (which relate to the coverage of the Citi- Scope Model):
. Demographics
. Labour market
. Economic activity overview (resident-based)
. Employment (workplace-based)
. Sectoral employment structure (workplace-based)
. Occupational employment structure (workplace-based)
. Self-employment (workplace-based)
. Employment (resident-based)
. Unemployment and inactivity (resident-based)
. Output / GVA
. Business stock and creation / closures
. Skills
. Skills of the population
. School leavers
. Wages
. Housing market (house prices and stock)
. Deprivation
. Tourism
Part 1: Baseline 22
. Commuting and transport flows
. Employment land
. Environmental accounts
. Fiscal accounts
The chapter then provides summary performance and forecasts for the wider North West economy. Note that ward level data within Derry~Londonderry is covered in the following chapter.
Demographics
Derry~Londonderry has enjoyed consistent population growth (Fig 3.1). After a relatively strong period of growth over the 1980s and 1990s (18% between 1981 and 2000, twice the NI average), population growth slowed and lagged that of the NI average from 2001 to 2009 (Fig 3.1).
Population growth in Derry~Londonderry has been predominantly a function of high birth rates, which after falling in the late 90s and early noughties, have levelled and indeed begun to rise in the latest data.
Fig 3.1: Total population, Derry~Londonderry and NI
120 2000
115 1900
110 1800
105 1700
100 Population(000s) Population(000s) 1600 95 Derry (LHS) 1500 90 NI (RHS)
85 1400
1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019
Source: NISRA, Oxford Economics, Citi-Scope Model (Oxford Economics) Note: withdrawal of armed forces in 2001 lead to the reduction in total population shown in the Figure
Part 1: Baseline 23
An analysis of the drivers of population change (migration and natural increase) shows the Derry~Londonderry economy has suffered from net out migration since 1999 (Fig 3.2). Net out migration peaked in 2001 with almost 1,200 leaving the Council area. This trend has been in contrast to the net in-migration experienced by other urban areas in NI but is similar to Belfast. The withdrawal of armed forces in 2001 (and the years leading up to it) contributed much to the net out migration.
Fig 3.2: Components of population change, Derry~Londonderry
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5 000s 0.0
1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 -0.5 Births Deaths -1.0 Migration
-1.5
Source: NISRA
It is interesting that the city has largely missed out on the significant in-flow of international migration which most locations in NI (and the UK in general) have experienced in recent times. This may reflect limited employment opportunity, though the strong retail sector and tourist-related employment might have been expected to attract more in the way of international migration. The other key factor in the net migration pattern is the steady loss of Derry~Londonderry residents to job opportunities and education elsewhere in NI and beyond, and this skilled pool of labour not returning in large numbers.
Looking forward, the rate of local population growth is expected to remain slightly below the regional average over the period (6.2% compared to 6.9% from 2009 to 2020). Over the short and medium term, we expect net migration to remain negative due to fewer job opportunities, with the Belfast Metropolitan Area (BMA) remaining the key source of jobs in the regional economy. However as shown in Fig 3.1, population is expected to continue to rise, driven by natural increase (despite a modest fall in the number of births per annum in the area).
Part 1: Baseline 24
Labour market
Economic activity (resident)2
In 2008 the Derry~Londonderry economy had a lower rate of economic activity than the NI average (Table 3.1). While the proportion of the working age population unemployed was two percentage points greater than NI, the proportion employed was nearly ten percentage points below that of NI. This has implications for the wealth creation, consumer demand, and the area‟s attractiveness as a business location.
Economic inactivity is greater than the regional average (note this is often the case in urban areas). The proportion of the working age population recorded as „looking after the family / home‟ and „long term sick‟ are a combined 7 percentage points greater than the average.
Table 3.1: Working age economic activity structure, Derry~Londonderry and NI (2008)
Derry minus NI Derry NI (pp) 000s % % %
Economically active Employed * 40.5 59% 69% -9.5 Unemployed ** 3.6 5% 3% 1.9
Economically inactive Looking after family/home 6.1 9% 6% 2.2 Long-term sick 8.3 12% 8% 3.4 Early retired 1.6 2% 3% -0.3 Student inactive 6.0 9% 7% 1.8 Other inactive 4.4 6% 5% 1.6
Source: Census Office for NI, LFS, DSD, Citi-Scope Model (Oxford Economics) Note: * Includes economically active students. ** Census-scaled (equivalent to ILO unemployed as opposed to Job Seekers Allowance claimant unemployed)
Low employment rates are generally considered „unfavourable‟; however there are categories of inactivity that may be considered desirable, most notably students. The presence of students is an attraction to businesses and ensures that, if encouraged to stay, there will be more productive labour available in the future. The presence of the Magee university campus in Derry~Londonderry will always provide downward pressure on the rate of economic activity rate. The size of the student population however, does not outweigh the scale of inactivity.
2 Resident economic activity refers to the economic status of the resident population (i.e. those who live in the local area) regardless of whether they work outside the local economy. However workplace based data refers to those who work in the local economy regardless of where they reside.
Part 1: Baseline 25
Employment (workplace)
Despite the trend of net out migration, Derry~Londonderry has enjoyed the same consistent period of job creation as NI (Fig 3.3). In fact over the period 2005 to 2008, the local economy experienced faster workplace job growth than the regional average, 6% compared to 3.4% respectively. This can partly be explained by Derry~Londonderry‟s sectoral structure (discussed below).
Fig 3.3: Total workplace employment, Derry~Londonderry and NI
53 900
51
850 49
47 800 45
43 750
41
Total employment (000s) employment Total Totalemployment (000s) 39 Derry (LHS) 700 NI (RHS) 37
35 650
1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 Source: DETI Census of Employment, LFS, Oxford Economics, Citi-Scope Model (Oxford Economics)
Like NI, Derry~Londonderry‟s level of total employment peaked in 2008, before the start of the recession. As depicted in the chart, and discussed earlier, the recession has had a significant impact on employment. Globally the initial impact on financial services quickly spread to the construction sector and through to the wider economy. All sectors, with the exception of public services, have experienced job loss since the start of the recession.
We estimate that it will take both the local and regional economies until 2013 before employment growth starts to recover. However the tighter public spending environment, restricted access to credit and strengthening of Sterling should result in subdued rates of employment growth during the early years of the labour market recovery. To put the impact of the recession in context it will take until the end of 2017 for the local economy to return to its 2008 peak level of employment.
Part 1: Baseline 26
Sectoral employment (workplace)
Health & social work (20%) and retail & distribution (18%) are the major employers in Derry~Londonderry, reflecting the area‟s „hub‟ structure in the North West of the Island. Fig 3.4 also shows the importance of the public sector for employee jobs. Nearly 40% of employment can be found in the public administration, health & social work and education sectors. Furthermore the scale of indirect and induced jobs supported by the public sector will be significant.
Fig 3.4: Workplace employee job structure, Derry~Londonderry (2008)
Electricity, Gas & Water Extraction 1% 0% Financial Intermediation Agriculture 1% 1% Transport & Communications 3%
Other Personal Services Health & Social Work 4% 20% Construction 4%
Hotels & Restaurants 6%
Public Admin. & Defence 8% Distribution 18%
Manufacturing 10%
Education 12% Business Services 12% Source: DETI Census of Employment, Citi-Scope Model (Oxford Economics)
Fig 3.5 illustrates Derry~Londonderry‟s employee structure relative to NI and highlights how highly dependent the local economy is upon the public sector for employment (again a common urban feature where hospitals and universities are often located). This has a number of implications for future prospects. Throughout the „core‟ recession phase the public sector should provide cushion against tightening fiscal conditions (though this phase has almost passed by the time of reporting). However given the inevitable cuts in public expenditure (necessary to re-balance public finances), this level of dependence may not only hinder future growth, but could offer a serious risk to overall employment levels. Tables 3.2 and 3.3 present our forecasts for sectoral growth.
Part 1: Baseline 27
Fig 3.5: Workplace relative employee job structure, Derry~Londonderry versus NI (2008)
Manufacturing Other Personal Services Health & Social Work Education Public Admin. & Defence Business Services Financial Intermediation Transport & Communications Under developed Hotels & Restaurants Over dependent relative to NI Distribution relative to NI Construction Electricity, Gas & Water Extraction Agriculture
-4% -3% -2% -1% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% Derry/Londonderry-NI
Source: DETI Census of Employment, Oxford Economics, Citi-Scope Model (Oxford Economics)
Table 3.2: Workplace sectoral employee average annual growth, Derry~Londonderry and NI 1998-08 2008-11 2011-20 Derry NI Derry NI Derry NI Agriculture -5.0% -2.5% -1.1% -1.1% -1.5% -1.5% Extraction 0.9% 1.0% -5.1% -5.1% -2.3% -2.3% Manufacturing -6.2% -2.0% -6.9% -4.0% -1.8% -1.1% Utilities -2.2% -2.4% -1.8% -1.8% -2.5% -2.5% Construction 3.4% 3.9% -8.2% -7.9% 2.5% 2.3% Distribution & retail 3.8% 2.8% -1.2% -1.0% 0.6% 0.9% Hotels & restaurants 2.7% 2.3% -0.8% -0.6% 1.8% 1.5% Transport & communication 1.0% 2.6% -0.9% -1.0% 0.9% 0.7% Financial services 2.6% 3.0% -1.4% -0.8% 0.6% 0.9% Business services 10.0% 7.1% -2.1% -1.7% 3.5% 2.8% Public admin. & defence 1.3% 0.0% -1.1% -1.3% -1.6% -1.7% Education 1.0% 1.2% 0.3% 0.5% 0.3% 0.3% Health 2.0% 2.3% 0.5% 0.7% 0.4% 0.5% Other personal services 3.4% 2.2% -0.7% -0.3% 0.4% 0.3% Total 1.4% 1.8% -1.6% -1.3% 0.7% 0.6%
Source: DETI Census of Employment, Oxford Economics, Citi-Scope Model (Oxford Economics)
Part 1: Baseline 28
Table 3.3: Workplace sectoral employee job change (000s), Derry~Londonderry and NI
1998-08 2008-11 2011-20 Derry NI Derry NI Derry NI Agriculture -0.2 -3.6 0.0 -0.4 0.0 -1.5 Extraction 0.0 0.2 0.0 -0.3 0.0 -0.3 Manufacturing -4.1 -19.8 -0.9 -10.0 -0.6 -7.4 Utilities -0.1 -0.8 0.0 -0.2 -0.1 -0.5 Construction 0.5 13.8 -0.4 -9.5 0.4 7.8 Distribution & retail 2.5 32.1 -0.3 -3.9 0.4 10.3 Hotels & restaurants 0.6 9.0 -0.1 -0.7 0.4 6.0 Transport & communication 0.1 7.1 0.0 -0.9 0.1 2.1 Financial services 0.1 4.9 0.0 -0.5 0.0 1.5 Business services 3.3 39.8 -0.3 -3.9 1.9 21.5 Public admin. & defence 0.4 0.0 -0.1 -2.2 -0.5 -7.9 Education 0.5 8.4 0.0 1.0 0.1 2.1 Health 1.5 23.3 0.1 2.5 0.3 5.5 Other personal services 0.5 6.4 0.0 -0.3 0.1 1.0 Total 5.8 120.8 -2.1 -29.2 2.6 40.0 Source: DETI Census of Employment, Oxford Economics, Citi-Scope Model (Oxford Economics)
An analysis of Tables 3.2 and 3.3 shows:
. Agriculture, manufacturing and utilities: These sectors have experienced a decade of job loss (4,400 jobs have been lost over the period 1998 to 2008) as the economy has gradually shifted to more service-orientated activity, and manufacturing becomes more high tech, productive and capital intensive. As a city, the Derry~Londonderry economy has experienced faster contraction than the NI average. This trend has continued into the recession, and we do not expect it to change during the recovery phase. However the scale of losses will be much smaller as the sectors are now more modest in scale.
. Construction: Although the construction sector did not grow as fast as the regional average over the last decade (partly linked to demographics and lack of international in-migration), it still created approximately 500 net new jobs. Given the change in fortunes in the housing market and restrictions on lending, house building has all but ceased, and major construction projects have been postponed. As a result we estimate that a significant number of the jobs created over the last decade will be lost by 2011. However with recovery in the housing market and in the economy in general, the construction sector in Derry~Londonderry should recover most of the jobs lost by 2020.
Part 1: Baseline 29
. Retail and hotels & restaurants: Over the last decade the retail sector has been the second largest source of net new jobs in Derry~Londonderry (2,500 jobs have been created over the period 1998 to 2008), reflecting the city‟s position as a retail hub for the North West (more recently augmented by cross border trade). Employment growth in the hotels and restaurants and distribution and retail sectors from 1998 to 2008, outperformed the NI average. However we estimate that during the recession both will decline slightly faster than the NI average. During recovery we expect the retail sector to more than recover the jobs lost during the recession, while the hotels and restaurants sector is expected to grow strongly as the sector matures and is supported by rising tourism to the Island and city in general.
. Financial and business services: The business services sector was the main driver of employment creation in the Derry~Londonderry economy over the decade to 2008, a sign of the changing structure of urban economies. Although some of the gains will be lost over the recession, business services will remain the key growth sector in the local economy. Levels of consumer expenditure and business investment are expected to be lower over the recovery phase as access to credit is limited and debt is repaid. As a result, growth will be more reliant on external demand through exports. We therefore we expect business services (tradable services in particular) to be a key driver of drive future job growth in Derry~Londonderry and NI.
. Public services: Over a third of net employment growth in the local economy over the last decade came from the public sector, with health accounting for the bulk of public sector job creation. During the recession, only the education and health sectors are expected to record positive employment growth. Looking into recovery, although public services are expect to suffer from the tighter public spending environment, the increased demand arising from a rising population should result in future job growth in education and health, though at a lower rate than in the past. However public administration is forecast to experience a net job loss.
. Other: In addition to the above sectors, the transport & communications sector and other private services are expected to follow the general trend of contraction during the recession, and growth in recovery. The presence of Project Kelvin in the area could offer opportunities for employment growth in communications and in other aspects of private services.
Given these sectoral employment forecasts and Derry~Londonderry‟s urban characteristics, we estimate it will experience a more severe contraction in employment than NI during recession. However it is expected to marginally out-perform the NI average over the period 2011 to 2020.
Part 1: Baseline 30
Occupational structure (workplace)
An analysis of workplace occupations reflects the sectoral structure of the increasingly services sector orientated Derry~Londonderry economy. Fig 3.6 shows the high proportions of employment in professional (15%) and associate professional and technical (14%) occupations in Derry~Londonderry, compared to NI as a whole (i.e. bars to the right). The concentration of education and health employment in the area is a major reason for the high stock of professional occupations.
There appears to be a relatively low proportion of skilled trades (11%) in Derry~Londonderry which is hardly surprising as the city has experienced a general decline in its agriculture and manufacturing sector over the last decade, though skilled trades are likely to have been boosted through job creation within the construction sector in recent years. The proportion of total employment within sales and customer service related occupations is also not surprising given, as noted above, that retail is one of the largest sectors in the area. Arguably however, as a city, Derry~Londonderry might be expected to have relatively more managers and administrative occupations than the NI average. We discuss the stock and flow of Derry~Londonderry skills later in this section.
Fig 3.6: Relative workplace occupation job structure, Derry~Londonderry versus NI (2008)
Elementary
Process, Plant & Machine Operatives
Sales & Customer Service
Personal Service
Under developed Skilled Trades Over dependent relative to NI relative to NI Administrative & Secretarial
Associate professional & Technical
Professionals
Managers & Senior Officials
-7% -5% -3% -1% 1% 3% 5% 7% Derry/Londonderry - NI
Source: Census Office for NI, LFS, Oxford Economics, Citi-Scope Model (Oxford Economics)
Part 1: Baseline 31
Self-employment (workplace)
As the local and regional economies experienced growth in employee jobs, self employment also grew. Although these figures can be volatile from year to year, the general upward trend over the past decade is evident (Fig 3.7). Growing numbers of self-employed in construction and in a wide range of service activities has been a major factor in growth in self-employment.
Fig 3.7: Workplace total self-employment, Derry~Londonderry and NI
6 140
130
120 5
110 000s 000s 100 4 90 Derry (LHS) NI (RHS) 80
3 70
199119921993199419951996199719981999200020012002200320042005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020
Source: Census Office for NI, LFS, Oxford Economics, Citi-Scope Model (Oxford Economics)
Looking forward the number of self employed is expected to fall over the recession, returning to the 2003 level. It will take until 2012 for the number of self-employed to begin rising.
Employment (resident)
Historically, Derry~Londonderry‟s resident employment rate has been well below the NI average (Fig 3.8). Recent growth in workplace employment (Fig 3.3) has only had a limited impact on closing the gap between the local economy and the regional average.
In 1997 Derry~Londonderry‟s resident employment rate was an estimated 10 percentage points (pp) below the NI average, and by 2003 according to official data, this gap had widened to 13 percentage points before falling back to a gap of 10 percentage points in 2008.
In truth the LADB data from DETI, which determines the trend in Derry~Londonderry‟s resident employment rate before and after the 2001 Census year, is extremely volatile (which is understandable given sample sizes), even after applying moving averages as is done in the Citi-Scope
Part 1: Baseline 32
Model. As such we have significant doubts over the veracity of the suggested fall in Derry~Londonderry‟s resident employment rate between 2001 and 2003 and the sharp rise between 2003 and 2006. A more stable upward path is more likely in our view.
Fig 3.8: Resident employment rate, Derry~Londonderry and NI
70
65
60
Derry
55 NI Resident employment rate (%) employment rate Resident
50
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Source: DETI LADB, LFS, Oxford Economics, Citi-Scope Model (Oxford Economics) Note: Resident employment rate is the proportion of the local area working age population employed and living in the local area
Assuming the trend in resident employment is closely aligned to changes in workplace employment (although commuting patterns can also change) Fig 3.9 suggests that it is highly unlikely that Derry~Londonderry‟s resident employment rate fell between 2001 and 2003 (as workplace employment was growing). Equally the suggested growth in resident employment levels from the LADB over the period 2003-2006 looks implausible given the moderate expansion in workplace employment (unless out commuting increased significantly).
Part 1: Baseline 33
Fig 3.9: Resident employment and workplace employment annual change, Derry~Londonderry
000s 2.5 Resident employment (LADB 3-yr ma)
2.0 Workplace employment
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
-0.5
-1.0
-1.5 Note: People-based
Source: DETI LADB, DETI Census of Employment, Citi-Scope Model (Oxford Economics)
We also looked at other data sources as an alternative to infer likely recent changes in Derry~Londonderry‟s resident employment. Taking mid-year working age population estimates from NISRA, JSA claimant data for unemployment, and DLA, child benefit and further education full-time enrolment data for inactive categories, we developed a proxy measure of the annual change in Derry~Londonderry‟s resident employment (Fig 3.10 below), where the change in resident employment is the residual.
Again this suggests that a fall in the resident employment rate between 2001 and 2003 according to the LADB is highly unlikely, as is the LADB scale of implied growth in resident employment between 2003 and 2006. Interestingly however it suggests that resident employment levels have risen in 2007 and 2008 whilst the LADB moving average indicated a „plateauing‟.
Part 1: Baseline 34
Fig 3.10: Resident employment official and proxy annual change, Derry~Londonderry
000s 2.5 Resident employment (LADB 3-yr ma)
Resident employment proxy 2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
-0.5
-1.0
-1.5 Note: People-based
Source: DETI LADB, DSD, DEL, NISRA, Citi-Scope Model (Oxford Economics)
Over the period from the 2001 Census, we therefore have doubts over the volatile LADB trend in Derry~Londonderry‟s resident employment rate. Although the overall magnitude of change, while possibly still on the high side, may be more plausible. We are still using the LADB moving average figures in the Citi-Scope model but would be open to adjusting the data to a more realistic trend. This would have obvious implications for employment trends in wards (see next chapter and Annex E).
Looking ahead, the baseline forecast predicts Derry~Londonderry‟s employment rate to remain below its recent peak for the foreseeable future, with the drop during and after the recession not being offset in the recovery period. Importantly too, the resident employment rate gap with the NI average is expected to remain throughout the decade. As such Derry~Londonderry‟s resident employment rate outlook is perhaps the most significant challenge facing the Regeneration Strategy.
Unemployment and inactivity (resident)
Over the decade to 2008, Derry~Londonderry‟s claimant unemployment rate halved to 6% (Fig 3.12). However it remained significantly above the NI average. The recession has reversed much, though notably not all of the recent unemployment falls. We estimate unemployment rates to peak in 2011 at just over 10% compared to 6.5% for NI (unemployment currently stands at 6.9% in Derry~Londonderry in December 2009).
Part 1: Baseline 35
Although we expect the labour market to start to recover in 2012, unemployment rates are likely to remain above recent lows over the forecast period given the subdued rates of employment growth and mis-match of skills demanded and supplied through the recovery phase. There is therefore a need for the Regeneration Strategy to include initiatives aimed at uplifting and matching skill levels within the area.
Fig 3.11: Claimant unemployment rate, Derry~Londonderry and NI
14
12
10
8
6 population )
4 Derry NI 2
0 Unemployment rate (as a percent of the working of the age a percent (as Unemployment rate
1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
Source: NOMIS, Oxford Economics, Citi-Scope Model (Oxford Economics)
Fig 3.12: ILO unemployment rate, Derry~Londonderry and NI
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2 Derry NI 0
ILO unemployment rate (as a percent of labour ILO force) a percent unemployment(as rate 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Source: Census Office for NI, LFS, DETI LADB, Oxford Economics, Citi-Scope Model (Oxford Economics)
Part 1: Baseline 36
During the consistent period of job creation enjoyed in the local economy pre-recession, unemployment rates fell steadily (note a higher inflow of migrants may have impacted on this trend). However over the period June 2008 to December 2009, the recession had resulted in a 72% increase in the number of people claiming unemployment benefits (an extra 2,000 people). An analysis of claimant on-flows (i.e. the starting to receive claimant unemployment benefits) shows that those bearing the brunt of the recession are those people aged 24 and under (although some of these people will have left unemployment during this period).
Fig 3.13: Claimant unemployment on-flow by age, Derry~Londonderry (June 2008 - December 2009)
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2 Derry NI 0
ILO unemployment rate (as a percent of labour ILO force) a percent unemployment(as rate 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Source: Census Office for NI, LFS, DETI LADB, Oxford Economics, Citi-Scope Model (Oxford Economics)
During the consistent period of job creation enjoyed in the local economy pre-recession, unemployment rates fell steadily (note a higher inflow of migrants may have impacted on this trend). However over the period June 2008 to December 2009, the recession had resulted in a 72% increase in the number of people claiming unemployment benefits (an extra 2,000 people). An analysis of claimant on-flows (i.e. the starting to receive claimant unemployment benefits) shows that those bearing the brunt of the recession are those people aged 24 and under (although some of these people will have left unemployment during this period).
Part 1: Baseline 37
Fig 3.13: Claimant unemployment on-flow by age, Derry~Londonderry (June 2008 - December 2009)
4,500 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 Under 19 Aged 20- Aged 25- Aged 30- Aged 35- Aged 40- Aged 45- Aged 50- Aged 55- Aged 60 24 29 34 39 44 49 54 59 and over
Source: NOMIS Note: This is the total stock of people entering unemployment in Derry~Londonderry over the period June 2008 to December 2009. Many leave unemployment subsequently, so this is not equivalent to the total net change in unemployment.
Unsurprisingly, as the economy has been experienced job loss since the start of the recession, the number of those claiming unemployment benefit for 12 months and over (considered the long-term unemployed), has more than doubled since July 2008 (Fig 3.14).
Fig 3.14: Claimant long-term unemployment, Derry~Londonderry
1,000
900
800
700
600
500
400
300
200 No. claimants (over 12 months) No. 12 claimants (over 100
0
Dec-07 Feb-08 Apr-08 Jun-08 Aug-08 Oct-08 Dec-08 Feb-09 Apr-09 Jun-09 Aug-09 Oct-09 Dec-09
Source: NOMIS
Part 1: Baseline 38
Despite the recent period of growth, rates of inactivity in both Derry~Londonderry and NI remained consistently high (Fig 3.15). This is often considered one of the failures of economic policy in NI to address the region‟s high level of economic inactivity (in contract job creation and reducing unemployment have been major successes).
Given the impact of the recession on the job market in the short term, and the subdued rates of employment growth once into recovery, we do not expect any improvements in inactivity over the forecast period. This is a concern and could be a major inhibitor of future growth and could have significant equality impacts. Relatively low levels of available labour in the local economy will limit consumer spending, business growth and could harm the attractiveness of the area to foreign investors. However not all elements of inactivity are a drag on economic growth. For example students may be recorded as inactive during their years of study, yet provide more productive labour once they enter the labour market.
Fig 3.15: Economic inactivity rate, Derry~Londonderry and NI
% working age pop
50% Forecast
45%
40% Derry
35%
30% NI
25%
20% 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019
Source: Census Office for NI, DETI LADB, LFS, Oxford Economics, Citi-Scope Model (Oxford Economics) Note: The economic inactivity rate is the percentage of the working age population not employed not unemployed (i.e. not part of the labour force)
Breaking inactivity into its constituent parts reveals that the number of students, and those early retired, are expect to rise going forward (Figure 3.16). Therefore inactive categories such as the long-term sick, those looking after the home should fall modestly as a percent of the working age population.
Part 1: Baseline 39
Fig 3.16: Economic inactivity rate – inactive students and early retired, Derry~Londonderry
% w orking age pop 12% Forecast Student inactive 10%
8%
6%
4%
Early retired 2%
0% 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019
Source: Census Office for NI, DETI LADB, LFS, Oxford Economics, Citi-Scope Model (Oxford Economics)
An analysis of sickness (as measured by the percent of the working age population receiving DLA benefits) shows there has been no significant improvement over the decade in absolute or relative terms (Figs 3.17 and 3.18). In 2001, Derry~Londonderry had the third highest level of „sickness‟ in NI. Only Strabane and Belfast recorded a higher rate. To put this in context, over one in every ten working age residents in the Council area received DLA benefit, compared to only one in every twenty in North Down. By 2009 its relative position improved marginally, despite the level of sickness rising. The latest data shows that Derry~Londonderry has the fourth highest proportion of working age population claiming Disability Living Allowance (DLA) in the region (Fig 3.18).
Part 1: Baseline 40
Fig 3.17: DLA working age benefit recipients (2001)
% working age population 14%
12% Derry
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
NI Derry Ards Down MoyleAntrim Larne Belfast Omagh Armagh Lisburn Strabane Limavady Coleraine Craigavon Banbridge Ballymena CookstownDungannon Ballymoney FermanaghCastlereagh Magherafelt North Down Carrickfergus Newtownabbey Newry & Mourne Source: DSD, NISRA
Fig 3.18: DLA working age benefit recipients (2009)
% working age population 14%
Derry 12%
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
NI Derry Ards Down Moyle Antrim Larne OmaghBelfast Armagh Lisburn Strabane Limavady Coleraine Craigavon Banbridge Ballymena Cookstown Dungannon Fermanagh Ballymoney MagherafeltCastlereagh North Down Carrickfergus Newtownabbey Newry & Mourne
Source: DSD, NISRA
In addition, the Derry~Londonderry economy has the highest proportion of lone parent households in Northern Ireland. It also has one of the highest rates of teenage pregnancy in the region. These factors present additional complexities for policy makers aiming to stimulate employment growth and labour market participation.
Part 1: Baseline 41
Fig 3.19: Lone parent households (2001)
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
Ards Moyle AntrimDown Larne Belfast Lisburn Omagh Armagh Strabane Craigavon Coleraine Limavady Ballymena Banbridge DungannonBallymoneyCookstown FermanaghMagherafeltCastlereaghNorth Down Carrickfergus Percentage All lone All parent households Percentage with dependent children Newtownabbey Derry~Londonderry Newry and Mourne
Source: Census Office for NI
Fig 3.20 shows the strong positive relationship between lone parent households and the percent of the working age population recorded as looking after the home (one of the inactive categories). Fig 3.21 shows the positive relationship between households with limiting long-term illness and the proportion of the working age long-term sick. The findings suggest that lone parents / family break up and health are two significant barriers to higher employment rates (though causation could work both ways).
Fig 3.20: Association between lone parent households and looking after family / home economically inactive, NI Local Government Districts (2001)
11% Newry & Mourne Derry
10%
9%
8% (2001) 7%
6%
5% y = 0.3648x + 0.0537
R2 = 0.246 Looking after familyLooking /after home % working populationage 4% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% Lone parent households with dependent children % total households (2001)
Source: Census Office for NI
Part 1: Baseline 42
Fig 3.21: Association between households with limiting long-term illness and long-term sick economically inactive, NI Local Government Districts (2001)
14% Strabane
Derry 12%
10%
8%
6% North Down y = 0.4059x - 0.0783 Long-term sick %sick Long-term working populationage (2001) R2 = 0.9066
4% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50% 55% Households with one or more persons with a limiting long- term illness % total households (2001)
Source: Census Office for NI
Output / GVA
Gross value added (GVA) output data for district council areas is not available directly from ONS Regional Accounts or the ABI. Oxford Economics estimate GVA at district council level based on employment, wages relative to NI and Regional Accounts GVA data published for 5 NUTS3 sub- regions in NI (Belfast, Outer Belfast, East, North and West & South). It should be noted that at a local level the activities of individual firms can have a large impact on GVA and the data may thus appear volatile. Figures should, therefore be treated with extreme caution.
Annual GVA / economic growth in Derry~Londonderry has generally lagged the regional average over the last decade (Fig 3.22). The decline in GVA in 2000 and 2002 is hard to defend and explain, and is most likely due to data volatility in wages and heavy declines in manufacturing employment (wages and employment are used in estimating GVA). During this three-year period, Derry~Londonderry suffered major losses in some of its value added industries, especially in textiles. Wage data for this period show a decline in average wages of 8% in Derry~Londonderry between 1998 and 2001. As we do not correct or „tweak‟ officially published data, our estimates of GVA reflect similar volatility.
Part 1: Baseline 43
Fig 3.22: GVA growth, Derry~Londonderry and NI
6
4
2
0
% per annum 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 -2
-4 Derry NI
-6
Source: ONS Regional Accounts, Oxford Economics, Citi-Scope Model (Oxford Economics)
Given the structure of the economy, we estimate that Derry~Londonderry will be more severely hit by the recession and recover more slowly until 2013. From 2013 on, we expect the local economy to out perform or match the NI average given the likely sectors for future employment growth and their tendency to locate in city areas.
Table 3.4 estimates productivity at a NUTS 3 level. Derry~Londonderry is captured within the „North of NI‟ NUTS 3 region (which also includes Ballymoney, Coleraine, Limavady, Moyle, and Strabane) which in 2007 had a level of productivity eight percentage points below the NI average.
Table 3.4: Relative productivity at NUTS 3 level in NI, NI=100
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Belfast 116 114 113 113 113 113 115 116 117 Outer Belfast 93 94 94 95 96 95 95 95 96 East of NI 102 103 103 103 103 103 102 102 102 North of NI 95 96 96 95 94 94 93 92 92 West and South of NI 87 88 89 89 90 90 90 89 88 Source: ONS Regional Accounts, Oxford Economics Note: Productivity equals GVA divided by total employment
However when we estimate productivity for the Local Government District economies based on their structure of employment and relative wages, we find that Derry~Londonderry has a productivity level similar to the NI average (Table 3.5).
Part 1: Baseline 44
Table 3.5: Relative productivity within North of NI NUTS 3 sub-region, NI=100
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Ballymoney 92 95 96 96 90 86 86 87 76 Coleraine 99 100 101 100 101 101 102 101 103 Derry~Londonderry 107 103 103 100 100 100 100 100 99 Limavady 95 93 88 87 90 92 93 92 87 Moyle 69 70 68 67 67 68 69 69 59 Strabane 87 88 91 92 92 91 90 88 81 NI 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 Source: ONS Regional Accounts, Oxford Economics, Citi-Scope Model (Oxford Economics) Note: Productivity equals GVA divided by total employment
We estimate that despite the slightly faster rates of output growth, slightly faster employment growth will keep productivity in Derry~Londonderry close to the regional average (Table 3.6) over the forecast period. Again suggesting that a „business as usual‟ growth profile will not be enough to lift the local economy above the NI average, and close the productivity performance gap with Belfast.
Table 3.6: Productivity, Derry~Londonderry, Belfast and NI (2005 prices)
2007 2009 2011 2015 2019 (£000s) (£000s) (£000s) (£000s) (£000s) Derry 30.8 30.1 31.2 34.0 36.1 Belfast 39.1 38.4 39.5 43.2 45.9 NI 31.1 30.4 31.4 34.3 36.4 Source: ONS Regional Accounts, Oxford Economics, Citi-Scope Model (Oxford Economics) Note: Productivity equals GVA divided by total employment
Business registrations, closures and stock
Over the last decade, the rate of annual business registrations per 1,000 working age population (a measure of entrepreneurship) has been below the NI average. Although business registrations were similar in 1997, there was a dramatic fall in Derry~Londonderry over the subsequent 5 years, driven by significant falls in the retail, manufacturing and agricultural sectors. Although 2003 brought improvement in business registrations and went someway towards closing the gap with the NI average, the local economy could not build on this convergence. Over the forecast period we estimate a significant fall in business starts in 2009, before Derry~Londonderry and NI return to trend growth rates.
Part 1: Baseline 45
Fig 3.23: Total business registrations per 1,000 of working age population, Derry~Londonderry
4.5
4.0
3.5
3.0
2.5
Derry working age population 2.0 NI
1.5 Total business registrations per 1,000
1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019
Source: NOMIS, NISRA, Oxford Economics, Citi-Scope Model (Oxford Economics)
Analysis of business de-registrations or closures shows that the local economy has been more successful than the NI average, with the exception of 2001 (i.e. a lower rate of closures). The latest available data shows that both Derry~Londonderry and NI had already started to experience a rise in de-registrations.
Fig 3.24: Total business de-registrations per 1,000 of working age population, Derry~Londonderry and NI
4.0
3.5
3.0
2.5 working age working populationage Derry 2.0 Total business closures per 1,000 per 1,000 Total closures business NI
1.5
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Source: NOMIS, NISRA
Given the unprecedented period of economic growth enjoyed over the last decade, it is no surprise that the stock of businesses in both Derry~Londonderry and NI have risen (Figure 3.25). Over the forecast period we expect business stock to fall on the back of lower levels of demand and higher lending restrictions before rising.
Part 1: Baseline 46
Fig 3.25: Total VAT registered business stock, Derry~Londonderry and NI
2,700 70,000
2,600 67,000
2,500 64,000
2,400 61,000 2,300
58,000 Total business Total stock business Total business stock Total stock business 2,200 Derry (LHS) 55,000 2,100 NI (RHS)
2,000 52,000
1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019
Source: NOMIS, Oxford Economics, Citi-Scope Model (Oxford Economics)
Skills
Working age skills
Sectoral employment growth has a number of implications for skills demand in the area, with future demand likely to be in higher skilled jobs. Figure 3.26 shows the proportion of the working age population qualified to Level 4 and above (equivalent to Degree / HND / HNC qualifications). With the exception of Ards, Derry~Londonderry has the lowest proportion of its working age population qualified to level 4 and above (across the councils for which LADB data is available). The best performing local areas are those within the Belfast Metropolitan Area. The data on skills from the LADB is however very volatile and the results should be treated with extreme caution.
Fig 3.26: Resident working age share qualified to NVQ level 4+ (2008) - LADB
40
35
30
25
20
15
Ards Antrim Down Derry Belfast Lisburn Omagh Armagh Craigavon BanbridgeBallymenaColeraine %of working population age qualified to and 4 NVQ above Castlereagh North Down Fermanagh
Newtownabbey Newry & Mourne
Source: DETI LADB Note: Data not available for all Council areas due to small sample sizes (Derry ranked out of 17 District Councils)
Part 1: Baseline 47
However an analysis of Census data, (which is more complete, though also has issues over classification) shows that Derry~Londonderry performed much better in relation to the stock of graduates than the 2008 LADB data shown above suggests (Fig 3.27). However it still lagged behind the majority of the Belfast Metropolitan Area councils.
Fig 3.27: Resident working age share qualified to NVQ level 4+ (2001) - Census
% working age population 30%
25%
20% Derry
15%
10%
5%
0%
NI Derry Ards Down Antrim Larne Moyle BelfastLisburn Omagh Armagh Coleraine Limavady Strabane Banbridge Ballymena Craigavon CastlereaghNorth Down DungannonFermanagh Magherafelt CookstownBallymoney Carrickfergus Newtownabbey Newry and Mourne Source: Census Office for NI
Regardless of the source of data, a pre-requisite for any modern city economy is a strong supply of qualified labour as increasingly the most successful firms require higher skills levels across their workforce. Although the proportion of residents qualified to level 4 and above has risen over time according to LADB data (Table 3.7), the Derry~Londonderry gap between Belfast and the NI average has widened (even allowing for some volatility). This relatively low stock of highly skilled labour (relative to the NI average and BMA) is a concern and again a potential barrier to future success.
Part 1: Baseline 48
Table 3.7: Resident working age share qualified to NVQ level 4+, Derry~Londonderry, Belfast and NI - LADB Working age % NVQ 4 and above Derry~Londonderry Belfast NI 1997 18% 19% 17% 1998 16% 19% 19% 1999 18% 22% 19% 2000 18% 24% 19% 2001 17% 24% 20% 2002 19% 21% 21% 2003 20% 22% 22% 2004 22% 23% 23% 2005 24% 25% 23% 2006 21% 30% 23% 2007 21% 29% 25% 2008 22% 33% 26% Source: DETI LADB
Part 1: Baseline 49
Box 3.1: Why skills matter
The stock and flow of skilled labour in an economy is a significant determinant of economic success. Table 3.8 shows a simple relationship between labour market participation and skill levels in NI over the period 2005 to 2007. It is clear that a positive relationship exists between the highest qualification level attained and the likelihood of employment. Likewise, there is strong negative relationship between skill level and the likelihood of being unemployed and inactive.
Table 3.8: Association between skills and economic activity
Inactive excluding Employed Unemployed students and early retirees
NVQ 5 93% 1% 5% NVQ 4 91% 1% 8% NVQ 3 84% 3% 14% NVQ 2 81% 4% 15% NVQ 1 68% 7% 25% NVQ 0 54% 5% 41% Source: LFS (3-year average 2005-2007) Source: LFS (3-year average 2005-2007) In addition, recent DEL research undertaken by Oxford Economics found a relationship between graduates and productivity. This relationship is largely causal, i.e. concentrations of graduates in a local economy lead to higher productivity and higher wages for all employees. However it is worth noting that more graduates will not automatically lead to higher productivity in an area, due to graduate mobility. Instead graduate concentrations are likely to be determined by demand for graduate skills i.e. appropriate graduate jobs. However for an economy to attract graduate jobs to an area, a strong annual flow and stock of skills is helpful.
UK regions: Private sector graduates and productivity
Productivity (UK=100, 2007) 140
130 London
120
110
100
90 y = 243.34x + 65.799 NI R2 = 0.9034 80 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% Private sector graduates % total employment (2001) Source: Census, Regional Accounts, DETI, ONS, Oxford Economics Source: DEL, The influence of graduate qualifications on average wages and productivity across the UK, February 2009
Part 1: Baseline 50
School leavers
Despite the local economy‟s low working age stock of skills, Derry~Londonderry has the 6th highest proportion of school leavers (approximately 50%) leaving secondary education with 2+ A-levels in 2007/08 (Fig 3.28).
Fig 3.28: Share of school leavers with 2+ A-Levels (2007/08)
% school leavers
60%
55%
Derry 50%
45%
40%
35%
30%
NI Derry Ards MoyleDown Larne Antrim Omagh Lisburn Belfast Armagh Strabane Coleraine Limavady Ballymena Banbrdige Craigavon CastlereaghFermanaghMagherafeltNorth Down Dungannon Cookstown Ballymoney Carrickfergus Newtownabbey Newry & Mourne
Source: DE School Leaver Survey Note: Based on place of pupil residence
However Derry~Londonderry underperforms relative to the NI average in relation to the proportion of school leavers achieving 5+ GCSEs A*-C. In 2007/08, it only out performed four Local Government Districts (Fig 3.29). In addition it has the second highest proportion of school leavers achieving no qualifications (Figure 3.30).
These have implications for how quickly the local economy can improve its relative stock of skills, and increase the demand for places in Higher Education and Further Education colleges. It also has repercussions for any future aim to out-perform the regional average in terms of skill structure.
Part 1: Baseline 51
Fig 3.29: Share of school leavers with 5+ GCSEs A*-C (2007/08)
% school leavers
80%
75%
70%
Derry 65%
60%
55%
50%
NI Derry Ards AntrimDown Moyle Larne Omagh Armagh Lisburn Belfast Coleraine Strabane Limavady Craigavon BallymenaBanbrdige North DownMagherafeltCastlereaghFermanaghDungannon Cookstown Ballymoney Carrickfergus Newtownabbey Newry & Mourne Source: DE School Leaver Survey Note: Based on place of pupil residence. School leavers refers to the number of children aged 16 and over leaving school each year, whether they leave at GCSE or A-Level grade
Fig 3.30: Share of school leavers with no GCSEs (2007/08)
% school leavers
10%
8%
6% Derry
4%
2%
0%
NI Derry Ards LarneDown Moyle Antrim Belfast Omagh LisburnArmagh Strabane Coleraine Limavady Craigavon Banbrdige Ballymena Cookstown NorthDungannon Down Ballymoney Fermanagh MagherafeltCastlereagh Carrickfergus Newtownabbey Newry & Mourne
Source: DE School Leaver Survey Note: Based on place of pupil residence
Regardless of the relatively poor performance at GCSE level, Derry~Londonderry has a larger proportion of school leavers enrolling in higher education than the NI average (Fig 3.31). However there are considerable differences between Local Government Districts (16.5 percentage points between the top and worst performing areas) which have resulted in downward pressure on the NI average. As such, although the local economy outperforms the regional average, it has significantly less (7.5 percentage points) school leavers enrolling in higher education than Omagh, Fermanagh, Castlereagh, and Magherafelt.
Part 1: Baseline 52
Fig 3.31: Share of school leavers entering higher education (2007/08)
% school leavers
50%
46%
Derry 42%
38%
34%
30%
NI Derry Ards Moyle Down Antrim Larne Omagh Lisburn Armagh Belfast Strabane Coleraine Limavady Ballymena Craigavon Banbrdige FermanaghCastlereaghMagherafeltNorthDungannon Down Cookstown Ballymoney Carrickfergus Newtownabbey Newry & Mourne
Source: DE School Leaver Survey Note: Based on place of pupil residence
Furthermore an analysis of higher education destinations shows that Derry~Londonderry school leavers are more likely to move to institutions elsewhere. Fig 3.32 presents the higher education destinations of school leavers for Derry~Londonderry and Belfast. Although over half of Belfast school leavers going on to higher education remain in Belfast, only 20% of Derry~Londonderry school leavers attend higher education at Magee. Furthermore nearly a third of those from Derry~Londonderry attending higher education do so in Great Britain compared to only a fifth of those from Belfast.
Part 1: Baseline 53
Fig 3.32: School leavers entering undergraduate higher education by destination, Derry~Londonderry and Belfast (2006/07)
60% Derry 54% Belfast
50%
40%
30% 30% 25%
20% 21% 20%
10% 5% 3% 1% 0% Belfast HEIs UU Magee UU Coleraine GB HEIs (including UUJ)
Source: DE School Leaver Survey Note: Based on place of pupil residence
The local area has broadly the same proportion of school leavers attending Further Education as the NI average (Figure 3.33).
Fig 3.33: Share of school leavers entering further education (2007/08)
% school leavers
45%
40%
35%
Derry 30%
25%
20%
15%
NI Ards Derry Antrim Moyle Down Larne Armagh Omagh LisburnBelfast Limavady Coleraine Strabane Craigavon Banbrdige Ballymena Ballymoney CookstownNorth DownCastlereagh Dungannon Magherafelt Fermanagh Carrickfergus Newtownabbey Newry & Mourne
Source: DE School Leaver Survey Note: Based on place of pupil residence
Part 1: Baseline 54
Box 3.2: Education attainment and outturns Commentary from the PwC / Oxford Economics research study „Addressing the Gap in Educational Outturns in the Derry City Council Area‟ noted how attainment levels (from Key Stage 1 to A-Level) of the city‟s school population are generally good in UK terms. However education outturns, which were defined as highest qualifications of residents, are less impressive with a much higher share of the city‟s working age population having no qualifications than the UK average.
One of the main reasons for the city‟s less impressive education outturn (despite a reasonable attainment record) is out-migration. A main driver if this is the high share of mobile A-Level leavers and graduates who leave Derry~Londonderry annually and do not return. This is partly due to low demand for their skills (i.e. not enough jobs being created and particularly not enough high value and high paid jobs). Those with the least qualifications are much less mobile and tend to remain in local labour markets even when there are insufficient jobs available to them.
The Steering Group for the research requested a closer examination of education attainment in Derry~Londonderry within a NI context. The key findings were:
Education attainment – KS 1-3 tests are not particularly informative. Though Derry~Londonderry ranks in the bottom 5 councils for each, its performance is not far below the NI average (and less far below than for education outturns and economic outcomes). One area of relative weakness though is attainment in secondary schools. The number of secondary school pupils not achieving any GCSE passes (almost 1 in 10) is close to double the NI average. Education outturns – comparisons of education outturns depend on the source of data. Census figures show Derry~Londonderry to have an above NI average share of working age residents with no qualifications, whereas more recent LADB data shows the opposite (LADB is survey-based and volatile from year to year). Both sources do however show Derry~Londonderry to have a below average working age share of graduates (Belfast has above average).
On this basis, we viewed higher education achievers leaving Derry~Londonderry as a more important priority than education attainment issues, though the weaker attainment of secondary schools was worthy of note.
The high levels of under-achievement and inability to hold on to greater numbers of those attending higher education can have knock on affects on business performance and foreign investment. Derry~Londonderry has to compete on the global stage for foreign investment, which is increasingly dominated by high value added tradable services sector. Such investments look for locations with an abundant supply of the skills needed for their business. Although the local economy boasts a Higher Education institution, the underlying skills profile of the working age population is a significant weakness.
Part 1: Baseline 55
Table 3.9 presents some analysis on actual versus expected resident employment levels in Derry~Londonderry. As can be seen from columns two and three, the percent of those employed at each skill level in Derry~Londonderry is below the regional average. Interestingly for lower qualification levels, the difference between NI and Derry employment rates rise.
Table 3.9: Resident employment in Derry~Londonderry actual versus expected (2001)
Actual minus expected Derry NI pp 000s
Resident employment rate No qualifications 36% 48% -12.8 -3.2 Level 1 61% 70% -9.3 -1.1 Level 2 62% 69% -7.4 -0.8 Level 3 70% 73% -3.1 -0.2 Level 4 81% 85% -4.3 -0.3 Level 5 88% 88% 0.1 0.0
Total working age (actual) 56% 65% - - Total working age (expected controlled for skills) 64% 65% -8.7 -5.6
Resident employment rate 16-17 27% 39% -11.6 -0.5 18-19 48% 39% 9.4 0.3 20-24 61% 68% -7.2 -0.5 25-29 67% 77% -10.3 -0.8 30-44 63% 73% -10.3 -2.4 45-59 50% 61% -11.4 -1.9 60-64 25% 40% -15.5 -0.3
Total working age (actual) 56% 65% - - Total working age (expected controlled for age) 65% 65% -9.4 -6.1
Total working age (actual) 56% 65% - - Total working age (expected controlled for skills 64% 65% -8.3 -5.4 and age) Source: Census Office for NI, Oxford Economics, Citi-Scope Model (Oxford Economics)
If we apply the NI average employment rate by skill level and age to Derry~Londonderry data, we would expect an additional 5,400 residents employed.
Wages
There is a strong pool of evidence to show that a relationship between higher levels of education and incomes exist. Given the skills profile discussed above, it is no surprise that Derry~Londonderry only ranks 17th out of the 26 Local Government Districts for mean weekly resident earnings (Fig 3.34). This is despite the concentration of employment in the relatively well paid public sector inflating average wages in the area.
Part 1: Baseline 56
Fig 3.34: Average weekly full-time resident wages (2009)
650
600
550
500
450
400
350
300
NI Ards Larne Down DerryMoyle Av. Resident weekly full weekly time Av. Resident (£,2009) pay gross Antrim LisburnBelfast ArmaghOmagh Coleraine Limavady Strabane BallymenaBanbridge Craigavon Castlereagh North Down Fermanagh MagherafeltBallymoneyDungannon Cookstown Carrickfergus Newtownabbey Newry & Mourne
Source: DETI ASHE
However an analysis of workplace wages shows that the local economy enjoys a level of full-time weekly wages closer to the NI average (Figure 3.35). This suggests that many of the higher paid jobs in Derry~Londonderry are taken up by non-residents commuting into the area.
Fig 3.35: Average weekly full-time workplace wages (2009)
550
500
450
400
350
Av. Workplace weekly full time gross pay (2009)paygrosstime weeklyfull WorkplaceAv. 300
NI Ards AntrimLarne Derry Down Moyle Belfast Lisburn Armagh Omagh Strabane Coleraine BanbridgeBallymena Limavady Craigavon Castlereagh North DownDungannon FermanaghMagherafelt CookstownBallymoney Carrickfergus Newtownabbey Newry & Mourne
Source: DETI ASHE
Part 1: Baseline 57
Box 3.3: Link between productivity and wages
There is an obvious relationship between productivity and wages. Fig 3.36 below shows that if an economy secures higher paid jobs, productivity levels are likely to be higher.
Fig 3.36: Relationship between productivity and wages, Local Government Districts (2009)
120
Belfast
110
Newtownabbey 100 Derry
90
Down
80
70 Strabane y = 0.4776x + 48.657 Relative median workplace wages all jobs (NI=100) jobs wages median workplace all Relative R2 = 0.4126
60 60 80 100 120 140 Relative productivity (NI=100) Source: DETI ASHE, Citi-Scope Model (Oxford Economics) Housing market
It has been well documented that NI experienced the fastest UK regional growth in house prices in recent years. Official house price data from the University of Ulster revealed that average house prices in Derry~Londonderry reached almost £228,000 at their peak in 2007 (Figure 3.37), only £2,500 below the NI average. House prices in Derry~Londonderry have remained slightly below the NI average despite strong growth in recent years. The price and affordability plots clearly identify the changes in the housing market that occurred in the „boom‟ and the subsequent re-balancing needed / underway
Part 1: Baseline 58
Fig 3.37: House prices, Derry~Londonderry and NI FigFig 3.38: HouseHouse priceprice affordabilityaffordability ratio, ratio, Derry~LondonderryDerry~Londonderry and NI and NI 250000 14
12 200000 Less affordable 10
150000 8
6
100000
Affordability House prices (£) prices House 4
50000 Derry Derry 2 NI NI
0 0
1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Source: University of Ulster, Bank of Ireland, Oxford Source:Source: University University of Ulster, of Ulst Banker, Bank of Ireland, of Ireland, ASHE, ASHE, Oxford Oxford Economics, Economics, Citi-Scope Model (Oxford Economics) Citi-ScopeEconomics, Model Citi (Oxford-Scope Economics) Model (Oxford Economics) Note: Affordability ratio is ratio of average house prices to annual average wages Note: Affordability ratio is ratio of average house prices to annual average wages This gap in house prices is expected to narrow over the short-term forecast as house prices in NI have fallen at a faster rate (almost -20%) between 2008 and 2009 (compared to -11% for Derry~Londonderry). In medium term NI grows slightly faster due to stronger economic growth projected in the BMA (Belfast Metropolitan Area)
Fig 3.38 shows the pattern of house price affordability in Derry~Londonderry and NI. To put these affordability ratios into context, the traditional „income multiple‟ to determine levels of lending used to be 3 to 3.5 times a single income or 2.5 to 2.75 times joint incomes. However during the housing boom ratios crept up with more generous credit provision and mortgage arrangements available. Given the substantial correction in NI and sub-regional house prices, affordability has improved markedly falling from 2007 peaks of 12.8 and 11.3 to 8.4 and 7.5 in 2009 for Derry~Londonderry and NI respectively. Affordability is forecast to fall further, but remain above historic trends.
In Oxford Economics view, future rises in the ratio of house prices to earnings are unsustainable and unlikely to occur at least over a sustained period. As financial institutions look to rebuild their balance sheets and reduce their exposure to risk, borrowing requirements have been tightened and the cost of borrowing (above the base rate of interest) has risen. Therefore the restricted availability of mortgages will limit the levels of demand in the housing market. In addition, attitudes to risk and borrowing by individuals are likely to change, at least in the short term. If the ratio of house prices to earnings were to rise, the rate of interest would eventually react to dampen demand in the market (though only if this occurred nationally via Bank of England decisions).
The housing stock in NI and Derry~Londonderry has been growing at a steady rate over the last decade, at approximately 19% between 1998 and 2008 (Fig 3.39). We expect supply to continue on
Part 1: Baseline 59 this trend, as populations locally and regionally continue to grow. A major determinant of future housing demand, asides from demographics, lending conditions and the economy, will be the trend in the average number of persons per household. Any stabilisation in this previously falling trend will limit the future demand for new housing.
Fig 3.39: Housing stock (000s), Derry~Londonderry and NI
60 1000
55 900
50 800
45
700 40
600 35 Derry (LHS) NI (RHS)
30 500
19951996199719981999200020012002200320042005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020
Source: DSD, Oxford Economics, Citi-Scope Model (Oxford Economics)
Deprivation
The less than favourable employment rate and wages of Derry~Londonderry residents are reflected in the deprivation measures for Northern Ireland (Table 3.10).
Overall Derry~Londonderry is the second most deprived Local Government District, with only its near neighbour Strabane ranked as more deprived (Limavady also ranks in the 10 most deprived councils). Across the four deprivation measures of Extent, Concentration, Income, and Employment Derry~Londonderry ranks second or third most deprived in Northern Ireland. In the absence of any new initiative, this relative under-performance and level of deprivation is likely to remain.
Part 1: Baseline 60
Table 3.10: Rank of deprivation (2005)
Rank of Rank of Average Rank of Local Rank of Income Rank of Extent Employment Rank Concentration Scale Scale Strabane 1 1 3 7 9 Derry~Londonderry 2 3 2 2 2 Moyle 3 10 21 26 26 Belfast 4 2 1 1 1 New ry and Mourne 5 4 6 3 3 Cookstow n 6 11 15 17 20 Omagh 7 9 13 11 11 Limavady 8 6 7 18 22 Dungannon 9 14 9 9 14 Fermanagh 10 15 11 6 10 Craigavon 11 5 5 5 5 Ballymoney 12 25 25 23 25 Armagh 13 18 18 13 12 Larne 14 16 20 25 24 Dow n 15 20 16 10 8 Antrim 16 19 17 21 18 Magherafelt 17 24 24 20 21 Coleraine 18 12 10 12 15 Lisburn 19 7 4 4 4 Ballymena 20 13 14 15 17 Banbridge 21 26 26 22 19 Ards 22 22 22 14 7 New tow nabbey 23 8 8 8 6 Carrickfergus 24 17 12 24 23 Castlereagh 25 21 19 19 16 North Dow n 26 23 23 16 13
Source: NISRA Note: This table has been sorted by average rank (1= most deprived, 26 = least deprived)
Tourism
Figs 3.40-3.45 below present recent trends and baseline forecasts for tourism performance in Derry~Londonderry. Note this analysis refers only to overnight trips by out-of-state (i.e. outside NI) and domestic visitors from NITB regional tourism estimates. This therefore excludes day trippers, whose activities are particularly difficult to capture in tourism statistics.
The key tourism trends and forecast messages are:
. Recent performance – there has been a rise from the mid-1990s in tourist trips, nights and spend (no doubt helped by the improved security situation both regionally and locally), although a fall back from 2004 (this may however be related to changes in data methodologies which we are investigating). Average spend per trip, in 2006 prices, has remained relatively constant between £160 and £190, while the average number of nights per trip has declined moderately.
Part 1: Baseline 61
. Forecast performance – in the long-run we predict steady growth in tourist visitor numbers to and spend in Derry~Londonderry. Note this baseline does not include the full impact of the Walled City signature project or the positive tourism spillover if Derry is awarded the UK City of Culture in 2013 (this would be incorporated into an intervention scenario if selected by the Tourism Sector Working Group). The short-term prospects for tourism are however particular difficult to predict. On the one hand global and domestic recessionary factors present downside risks, while upside risks exist from the competitive value of Sterling (albeit strengthening) and potentially greater numbers of domestic and ROI overnight visitors choosing not to travel further.
Fig 3.40: Tourist trips, Derry~Londonderry Fig 3.41: Tourist nights, Derry~Londonderry
Derry: Tourist trips Derry: Tourist nights 000s 000s 180 800 Forecast Forecast
160 700 140
120 600
100 500
80
60 400 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 Source: NITB, Citi-Scope Model (Oxford Economics) Source: NITB, Citi-Scope Model (Oxford Economics)
Note: Out-of-state and domestic overnight Note: Out-of-state and domestic overnight
Part 1: Baseline 62
Fig 3.43: Tourist spend per trip, Derry~Londonderry Fig 3.42: Tourist spend, Derry~Londonderry Derry: Real tourism spend per trip Derry: Real tourism spend 2005 prices £m (2005 £250 prices) Forecast 40 Forecast £220 35
£190 30
25 £160
20 £130
15
£100 10 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 Source: NITB, Citi-Scope Model (Oxford Economics) Source: NITB, Citi-Scope Model (Oxford Economics)
Note: Out-of-state and domestic overnight Note: Out-of-state and domestic overnight
Fig 3.44: Tourist spend per night, Fig 3.45: Tourist nights per trip, Derry~Londonderry Derry~Londonderry
Derry: Real tourism spend per night Derry: Tourist nights per trip 2005 prices 10 £60 Forecast Forecast
£55 8
£50
6 £45
£40 4
£35 2 £30
£25 0 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 Source: NITB, Citi-Scope Model (Oxford Economics) Source: NITB, Citi-Scope Model (Oxford Economics)
Note: Out-of-state and domestic overnight
The tourism module in Citi-Scope has developed the demand (nights and trips) forecasts one stage further to predict the demand for accommodation by type (Table 3.11). This will be particularly
Part 1: Baseline 63 important for the „risk warning‟ module of Citi-Scope where supply shortages will be flagged if accommodation demand exceeds capacity, e.g. indicating occupancy rates greater or close to 100%,
Note tourism transport infrastructure demand for the local economy, e.g. flights into the City of Derry Airport etc, is extremely complex as visitors from outside the island of Ireland to NI typically enter via airports and ports in Belfast. As such the Citi-Scope Model does not forecast tourism transport infrastructure demand.
The forecast results in Table 3.11 for accommodation demand should be treated as provisional for now as due to lack of data, we have had to apply NI-wide accommodation assumptions which may not be strictly applicable to Derry~Londonderry (taken from the NI Passenger Survey and UK Travel Survey of domestic visitors). As more data becomes available, this analysis will be updated.
However in the meantime, the analysis predicts that the demand for accommodations establishments will rise over the long-term, from one 4/5* hotel to two and two 3* hotels to four etc. This is based on the NI-average size of establishments by type – where for example hotels in Derry to have fewer rooms / beds than the NI average, then the outcome of this analysis would differ.
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Table 3.11: Tourist nights and establishment forecast demand by accommodation type, Derry~Londonderry (provisional)
2008 2015 2020 2030
Nights (000s) 4/5* hotel 67.7 73.5 73.6 73.7 3* hotel 51.6 63.3 69.1 80.6 2* hotel 8.6 9.3 9.3 9.3 1* hotel 3.1 3.3 3.3 3.3 Guesthouse/B&B 125.0 135.7 135.8 136.1 Caravan/campsite 61.5 66.7 66.8 66.9 Youth hostel 29.7 32.3 32.3 32.4 Friends/relative's house 203.2 213.3 207.8 196.8 Rented house/cottage/flat 86.3 93.7 93.8 94.0 Total nights 636.6 691.2 691.9 693.4
% total nights 4/5* hotel 11% 11% 11% 11% 3* hotel 8% 9% 10% 12% 2* hotel 1% 1% 1% 1% 1* hotel 0% 0% 0% 0% Guesthouse/B&B 20% 20% 20% 20% Caravan/campsite 10% 10% 10% 10% Youth hostel 5% 5% 5% 5% Friends/relative's house 32% 31% 30% 28% Rented house/cottage/flat 14% 14% 14% 14%
Establishments (rounded) 4/5* hotel 1 2 2 2 3* hotel 2 3 3 4 2* hotel 1 1 1 1 1* hotel 0 0 0 0 Guesthouse/B&B 52 56 56 56 Caravan/campsite na na na na Youth hostel 2 2 2 2 Friends/relative's house na na na na Rented house/cottage/flat 29 31 31 31
Source: NITB, Citi-Scope Model (Oxford Economics)
Commuting and transport
The transport module of Citi-Scope estimates and forecasts commuter flows for:
. In and out commuting at council level by mode of transport (car and other road vehicles3 , bus, train and other), i.e. number of cars travelling from Strabane, Limavady, rest of NI and Donegal to employment in Derry~Londonderry.
3 This also includes car sharing and commuting by taxi.
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. Within Derry~Londonderry commuting between areas of the city by mode of transport (car and other road vehicles, bus, bicycle/foot and other)
. In addition the associated carbon footprint of commuter flows is also estimated and forecast using assumptions on distance travelled, mode of transport type and official metrics on CO2 emissions per mile.
For the „within Derry‟ commuting patterns there were two issues:
. transport flows across 30 wards and 4 modes of transport has the potential to be incredibly complex and unwieldy, and produce overly-detailed traffic flow estimates; and
. for disclosure reasons, NISRA are unable to provide this level of detail from the Census on commuting and mode of transport patterns.
Therefore in consultation with Ilex, Oxford Economics decided to combine traffic flows into categories that align directly with the main arterial routes into and within Derry~Londonderry for both private and public transport (which NISRA were able to provide the necessary Census data) 4 .
Having studied road maps provided by the Roads Service in the DRD Traffic and Travel Information reports, we identified the main arterial road routes into the city from council areas outside as:
. A2 from Limavady (which will include traffic from Coleraine)
. A5 from Strabane
. A6 from Dungiven (which will include traffic from Magherafelt and as far as Belfast)
. A40 from Letterkenny
In terms of routes within the city, we decided the most manageable approach was to combine wards into the following quadrants (see Annex E for the list of wards in each quadrant). Note East and West are defined as falling either side of the River Foyle.
4 Note for the same arterial route, this involves combining traffic flows from outside the city with commuting flows from wards located on or close to the route travelling in the same direction, e.g. commuters from Dungiven and Magherafelt on the A6, combined with commuters from Holy Mount, Enagh, Altnagelvin, Clondermot and Lisnagelvin etc travelling to Strand, The Diamond and Ebrington.
Part 1: Baseline 66
. North East
. South East
. North West
. South West
. Core City Centre (Strand and The Diamond)
Traffic flow estimates are then calculated, for example, for the number of people travelling by bus from the north western wards of Carn Hill, Shantallow East and Ballynashallog etc to the core city centre.
The only current train route is the Belfast-Ballymena-Coleraine-Derry~Londonderry NIR line which has no further stops within the Derry~Londonderry council boundary (this means that train transport flows will only capture commuting at council level and not between wards / different parts of the city).
Tables 3.12- 3.17 below present the baseline commuter forecasts at council-level and „within Derry‟. Some of the key observations include: a rise in and out commuting to all council locations; the almost negligible number of commuters by train into and out of Derry~Londonderry; and a rise of 900 in commuting from current levels from NE, NW, SE and SW wards to Derry‟s core city centre (an increase of 12%)
Part 1: Baseline 67
Table 3.12: Council-to-council commuting transport flows (2001)
Limavady, Strabane, Resident Derry ~ Coleraine, Fermanagh & Rest NI Donegal L'derry Ballymoney & Omagh Workplace Moyle A5 A2 / A6 A2 / A5 / A6 A40 Derry~Londonderry 1,779 2,831 992 1,310 See w ithin Car and other road vehicles (excl bus) 1,630 2,586 896 1,190 council Bus (passengers) 122 193 80 104 commuting Train (passengers) 0 14 6 0 tables Other 28 37 9 16 Strabane, Fermanagh & Omagh - A5 877 Car and other road vehicles (excl bus) 814 - - - - Bus (passengers) 51 - - - - Train (passengers) 0 - - - - Other 12 - - - - Limavady, Coleraine, Ballymoney & Moyle - A2 / A6 1,219 Car and other road vehicles (excl bus) 1,136 - - - - Bus (passengers) 47 - - - - Train (passengers) 18 - - - - Other 19 - - - - Rest NI - A2 / A5 / A6 1,121 Car and other road vehicles (excl bus) 940 - - - - Bus (passengers) 156 - - - - Train (passengers) 17 - - - - Other 7 - - - - Donegal - A40 578 Car and other road vehicles (excl bus) 541 - - - - Bus (passengers) 27 - - - - Train (passengers) 0 - - - - Other 10 - - - -
Source: Census Office for NI, Citi-Scope Model (Oxford Economics)
Part 1: Baseline 68
Table 3.13: Council-to-council commuting transport flows (2030)
Limavady, Strabane, Resident Derry ~ Coleraine, Fermanagh & Rest NI Donegal L'derry Ballymoney & Omagh Workplace Moyle A5 A2 / A6 A2 / A5 / A6 A40 Derry~Londonderry 1,830 2,912 1,020 1,347 See w ithin Car and other road vehicles (excl bus) 1,676 2,660 922 1,224 council Bus (passengers) 126 199 82 107 commuting Train (passengers) 0 14 7 0 tables Other 29 39 9 17 Strabane, Fermanagh & Omagh - A5 1,009 Car and other road vehicles (excl bus) 935 - - - - Bus (passengers) 60 - - - - Train (passengers) 0 - - - - Other 13 - - - - Limavady, Coleraine, Ballymoney & Moyle - A2 / A6 1,381 Car and other road vehicles (excl bus) 1,284 - - - - Bus (passengers) 53 - - - - Train (passengers) 22 - - - - Other 22 - - - - Rest NI - A2 / A5 / A6 1,459 Car and other road vehicles (excl bus) 1,224 - - - - Bus (passengers) 204 - - - - Train (passengers) 22 - - - - Other 10 - - - - Donegal - A40 815 Car and other road vehicles (excl bus) 763 - - - - Bus (passengers) 38 - - - - Train (passengers) 0 - - - - Other 15 - - - -
Source: Census Office for NI, Citi-Scope Model (Oxford Economics)
Part 1: Baseline 69
Table 3.14: Council-to-council commuting transport flow carbon emissions and social cost of emissions
2001 2008 2010 2020 2030
Out commuting Train single journeys (passengers, 000s) 14 17 17 17 17 Bus single journeys (passengers, 000s) 113 134 136 139 142 Motorcycle single journeys (passengers, 000s) 10 12 12 12 12 Car single journeys (passengers, 000s) 1,362 1,600 1,599 1,627 1,670 Distance all forms (m miles) 55.6 66.3 67.1 68.7 70.4 Average distance per single journey (miles) 37 38 38 38 38 Total emissions (CO2 tonnes) 17,601 20,963 21,219 21,693 22,254 Social cost CO2 emission (£m 2006 prices) 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.8
In commuting Train single journeys (passengers, 000s) 8 8 8 8 8 Bus single journeys (passengers, 000s) 200 201 187 197 206 Motorcycle single journeys (vehicles, 000s) 22 22 20 21 22 Car single journeys (vehciles, 000s) 2,499 2,510 2,343 2,469 2,570 Distance all forms (m miles) 75.2 75.6 70.5 74.3 77.4 Average distance per single journey (miles) 28 28 28 28 28 Total emissions (CO2 tonnes) 24,543 24,647 23,015 24,249 25,243 Social cost CO2 emission (£m 2006 prices) 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.9
Source: Census Office for NI, Citi-Scope Model (Oxford Economics)
Part 1: Baseline 70
Table 3.15: Within Derry~Londonderry commuting transport flows (2001)
Resident NW city SW city Core city Total (within NE city wards SE city wards wards wards centre wards Derry) Workplace
NE city wards 3,262 1,609 924 645 151 6,592 Bus (passengers) 106 118 75 104 33 435 Car and other road vehicles (excl bus) 1,776 1,281 797 484 105 4,442 Bycle and foot (people) 763 168 24 25 8 988 Other (people) 618 42 29 32 5 727 SE city wards 1,012 2,980 579 409 102 5,081 Bus (passengers) 65 82 44 62 25 278 Car and other road vehicles (excl bus) 787 1,625 495 276 56 3,238 Bycle and foot (people) 103 448 15 37 16 619 Other (people) 56 824 26 34 6 946 NW city wards 508 577 3,157 1,244 249 5,735 Bus (passengers) 42 53 203 107 32 437 Car and other road vehicles (excl bus) 415 468 1,672 751 116 3,422 Bycle and foot (people) 27 27 667 262 72 1,054 Other (people) 24 30 615 124 29 821 SW city wards 233 292 828 1,455 96 2,904 Bus (passengers) 5 9 40 55 3 111 Car and other road vehicles (excl bus) 214 249 636 621 59 1,778 Bycle and foot (people) 12 22 110 344 22 509 Other (people) 3 13 42 436 12 506 Core city centre 863 1,010 2,020 1,696 717 6,306 Bus (passengers) 165 136 391 137 32 861 Car and other road vehicles (excl bus) 633 751 1,390 825 209 3,807 Bycle and foot (people) 41 86 120 546 332 1,125 Other (people) 25 37 120 187 144 513 Total (within Derry) 5,878 6,468 7,508 5,448 1,315 26,618 Bus (passengers) 383 398 753 465 125 2,124 Car and other road vehicles (excl bus) 3,824 4,373 4,989 2,956 544 16,687 Bycle and foot (people) 946 750 935 1,213 450 4,294 Other (people) 726 946 832 813 196 3,512
Source: Census Office for NI, Citi-Scope Model (Oxford Economics)
Part 1: Baseline 71
Table 3.16: Within Derry~Londonderry commuting transport flows (2030)
Resident NW city SW city Core city Total (within NE city wards SE city wards wards wards centre wards Derry) Workplace
NE city wards 3,203 1,519 868 603 143 6,335 Bus (passengers) 104 112 70 97 31 414 Car and other road vehicles (excl bus) 1,743 1,209 748 453 99 4,252 Bycle and foot (people) 749 158 22 23 8 961 Other (people) 606 40 28 30 5 709 SE city wards 1,085 3,341 631 441 113 5,611 Bus (passengers) 70 92 48 67 28 304 Car and other road vehicles (excl bus) 844 1,822 539 298 61 3,565 Bycle and foot (people) 111 502 16 40 18 687 Other (people) 61 924 28 37 6 1,055 NW city wards 542 633 3,580 1,339 271 6,365 Bus (passengers) 45 58 230 116 35 484 Car and other road vehicles (excl bus) 443 513 1,897 809 126 3,787 Bycle and foot (people) 29 29 756 282 78 1,174 Other (people) 26 33 697 133 32 920 SW city wards 275 352 981 1,787 115 3,511 Bus (passengers) 6 10 48 67 3 135 Car and other road vehicles (excl bus) 252 300 753 762 71 2,139 Bycle and foot (people) 14 27 130 422 26 619 Other (people) 3 15 50 536 15 619 Core city centre 1,194 1,441 2,839 2,346 1,068 8,888 Bus (passengers) 228 195 550 190 47 1,210 Car and other road vehicles (excl bus) 875 1,072 1,953 1,141 311 5,352 Bycle and foot (people) 56 122 168 756 495 1,597 Other (people) 34 53 168 259 214 729 Total (within Derry) 6,299 7,286 8,899 6,516 1,710 30,710 Bus (passengers) 453 467 945 537 144 2,546 Car and other road vehicles (excl bus) 4,157 4,916 5,890 3,462 669 19,095 Bycle and foot (people) 959 839 1,093 1,523 625 5,038 Other (people) 730 1,065 971 995 272 4,032
Source: Census Office for NI, Citi-Scope Model (Oxford Economics)
Table 3.17: Within Derry~Londonderry commuting transport flow carbon emissions and social cost of emissions
2001 2008 2010 2020 2030
Bus single journeys (passengers, 000s) 849 954 900 965 1,018 Car single journeys (passengers, 000s) 6,675 7,223 6,760 7,240 7,638 Bicycle / on foot single journeys (people, 000s) 1,718 1,903 1,788 1,913 2,015 Other transport single journeys (people, 000s) 1,405 1,523 1,429 1,529 1,613 Distance all forms (m miles) 27.7 29.7 27.7 29.7 31.4 Average distance per single journey (miles) 2.6 2.6 2.5 2.6 2.6 Total emissions (CO2 tonnes) 7,575 8,058 7,517 8,058 8,524 Social cost CO2 emission (£m 2006 prices) 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3
Source: Census Office for NI, Citi-Scope Model (Oxford Economics)
Part 1: Baseline 72
Estimates of the cost of commuting (in terms of the £ value of commuter and other traffic time lost) will be estimated for intervention scenarios directly from these traffic flow patterns and a range of assumptions. These assumptions will include journey actual duration by all possible routes versus expected duration when there is no congestion (to calculate time „lost‟), UK Department for Transport value of time lost metrics (adjusted for UK-Derry~Londonderry wage differentials) to monetise time „lost‟, distance travelled and Department for Energy and Climate Change carbon emission conversion factors per mile for different transport types etc.
Note analysis of the economic costs of traffic flows can be complex and wide ranging, covering impacts such as lost investment, reduced staff productivity, wage pressures, agglomeration benefits. To avoid, in our view, unnecessary over-complicity in the Citi-Scope Model, we will limit the analysis to the value of the commuter time lost due to delays (traffic travelling at speeds slower than a „no congestion‟ scenario). Further detail could be added at a later date subject to demand.
Employment land
The methodology to estimate land use in Citi-Scope is based on almost exactly the same approach used in research for DRD by Oxford Economics and Roger Tyms & Partners to forecast future business land need in NI 5 . The main difference is that the Citi-Scope Model takes the DRD methodology one step further by also estimating business land needs for non-B space sectors6. This ensures that the Citi-Scope Model will present a more complete picture of overall business land need against which zoned employment land supply can be compared.
The basic approach to estimating employment land need (demand) is as follows: . Converting employment estimates and forecasts into individual B-space and non-B space employment categories. Note this involves construction of a highly detailed 4-digit employee jobs and self-employment series and application of a 4-digit SIC-land use matrix7 .
5 http://www.drdni.gov.uk/index/regional_planning/information_gathering.htm
6 B-space broad categories cover industry, office and warehousing. Sectors such as agriculture, retail, hotel & restaurants, education, health & social work, mining, utilities and elements of transport, all fall under non-B space categories.
7 There is some debate amongst planners whether full-time equivalent jobs or total jobs should be used to estimate business land need. Some are of the view that it is the concept of a workspace that matters more than actual number of jobs. For example in 24-hour call centres where 2-3 employees may use the same workspace, the business land need could be considered to be 1 workspace for 2-3 staff. However in order to produce conservative estimates of business land need (i.e. higher figures), the approach used by Roger Tyms & Partners for DRD was to base business land need on total jobs rather than full-time equivalent jobs (which can serve as a rough proxy for workspaces). This approach has been maintained in the Citi- Scope Model.
Part 1: Baseline 73
. Converting B-space and non-B space employment into floorspace requirements (m2) using job density ratios (m2 per job) applied in the DRD study for B-space land uses and English Partnership job density ratios for non-B space land uses8. . Converting floorspace requirement to total land requirement (m2) using plot ratio assumptions applied in the DRD study (30%).
Forecasts for future business land needs in Derry~Londonderry are presented in Table 3.18 below. This shows that over the entire period 2010-2025, there is a net requirement for 250,000 m2 of employment land. For useful context, this is equivalent to roughly 34 hectares, which represents 0.1 per cent of the total council boundary area.
The majority of this demand comes from the following land uses – office, health & education, retail, leisure & catering and miscellaneous & other (which includes sub-sectors in transport and other personal services).
Note however the negative land requirement for industry and to a lesser degree, other public services (includes elements of public administration) and primary & utilities (primary includes agriculture). As employment land vacated by declining sectors, such as elements of manufacturing, may not be suitable for other land uses, it is often important to look at the gross land requirement to be conservative (see final column in the table below). The total gross requirement for employment land is 341,000 m2.
Table 3.18: Future B-space and non B-space business land need, Derry~Londonderry (2010- 2025 ) 9)
Floorspace Net land Gross land Net employment Job density ratio requirement Plot ratio requirement requirement change (000s) (m2 per job) (000 m2) (000 m2) (000 m2)
B-space 1.9 - 31.0 - 103.4 153.1 Office (B1a) 2.1 17.9 38.1 30% 126.9 126.9 Industry (B1b/c, B2) -0.5 31.8 -14.9 30% -49.7 0.0 Warehousing (B8) 0.2 40.1 7.9 30% 26.2 26.2
Non B-space 2.5 - 43.9 - 146.4 187.7 Retail, leisure & catering 1.1 19.0 20.4 30% 68.0 68.0 Health & education 0.9 19.0 17.7 30% 59.1 59.1 Other public services -0.2 19.0 -3.1 30% -10.4 0.0 Primary & utilities -0.1 80.0 -9.3 30% -30.9 0.0 Miscellaneous & other 0.8 23.0 18.2 30% 60.6 60.6
Total 4.4 17.1 74.9 30% 249.8 340.8 Source: DRD Business Land Need Study, English Partnerships, Citi-Scope Model (Oxford Economics)
8 Note the job density assumption for agriculture, which falls under „primary and utilities‟, may under-estimate the land requirement. However as the Derry council area is a largely urban area and the base forecast is for a net decline in employment, this is a less important issue than if the area in question was rural and had a forecast large growth in agriculture employment. 9 Note analysis of future business land need can be produced for any combination of time periods.
Part 1: Baseline 74
One of the original objectives of the DRD business land need study, which is of relevance to the Citi- Scope Model (for flagging „risk warnings‟), was to compare forecast business land need / demand against available supply. For the following reasons the final analysis undertaken was severely limited:
. Lack of supply data - one of the requirements of the DRD study was to undertake a supply-side audit of existing provision of business land use and its spatial distribution. In England this data has been published as a time series dataset since 1998 by the Valuation Office and Communities and Local Government. However to date this data is not yet produced as a matter of routine in NI 10..
. No assessment of supply viability – zoned employment land figures from area plans, presented in the DRD report as planned employment land supply, did not necessarily mean that all of this land is developable. The scope of the DRD study did not extend to assess the quality or market attractiveness of the supply sites. It could be that the sites identified are not financially viable to develop either because of an infrastructure deficit, are not environmentally viable or because their location is not attractive to potential B-space occupiers.
. No account of land transfers to other uses - the comparison of demand versus supply did not take account of future losses, where employment land is transferred to other uses such as housing or retail.
An important conclusion of the DRD study (albeit heavily caveated given the factors above), which applied across almost all councils, including Derry~Londonderry, was that zoned employment land from area plans was more than sufficient to provide for forecast business land needs (although in the DRD study only demand from B-space employment was considered). In other words unlike more land constrained areas such as around London and the South East of England, employment land is highly unlikely to act as a future barrier to growth across NI.
While now considerably outdated (and almost reaching the final year of its timeframe), the 2011 Derry Area Plan, published in 2000, indicated that 155ha of zoned industrial land (excluding town centre) was available for development. Note 155ha is equivalent to 1.5 million m2.. Obviously some of this land will have been developed but still compared to the forecast gross demand for 341,000 m2. across all land use categories between 2010 and 2025, this suggests that there is sufficient employment land in the city to support the baseline employment growth. Going forward however, we recognise the need to work with Ilex and planners in the North West to arrive at a more up-date and accurate picture of
10 Although the NI Land and Property Services (LPS) were able to provide provisional floorspace stock statistics using taxation records, LPS urged caution using the data as this is the first time it has been produced and it is still considered provisional.
Part 1: Baseline 75 available employment land for the next 10, 20, 30 years in Derry~Londonderry. It is our understanding that a more recent area plan has not yet been published.
Environmental accounts
Environmental accounts for Derry~Londonderry are based on historical carbon emissions data from the Department of Energy and Climate Change (DECC). This aims to provide nationally consistent carbon emission estimates at local authority and regional level. This data is available from 2005–2007, which forms the base starting point for emission forecasts.
Note we focus on carbon dioxide emissions as it is the most significant of the greenhouse gases associated with global warming. There are other emissions (such as sulphur dioxide associated with acid rain), waste and recycling metrics etc, which could be added at a later date.
The Citi-Scope Model estimates and forecast total CO2 emissions for Derry~Londonderry, aggregated from CO2 emissions from the following four sources:
. Industrial and commercial (including the energy sector); . Domestic households; . Transport; and . Land use, land use change and forestry (LULUCF).
Industrial and commercial emissions are forecast using sectoral employment forecasts and ratios of carbon intensity by sector (applying Derry-UK sector differentials from DECC historic data). Domestic household emissions are forecast using population projections, alongside Derry~Londonderry per capita household emission rates (in so much as they are estimated to differ from the UK average).
Transport emissions are potentially the most complex to model and forecast. The simple approach currently adopted is to assume transport-related emissions are a function of economic output. While this does not incorporate differences in commuting patterns and modes of transport used (which may shift under scenarios Citi-Scope will model), for transparency we can at least estimate, from the commuting module, the associated carbon footprint of commuting. Finally LULUCF emissions are based on area (ha) figures.
Baseline national forecasts for ratios of carbon intensity by sector, household etc are based on indirect assumptions about confirmed incoming legislation which are incorporated into Oxford Economics‟ UK carbon model. They therefore do not represent „business as usual‟.
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For economic appraisal analysis (which as far as possible requires a monetary value for all major benefits and costs), it is important to attempt to monetise scenario impacts on carbon emissions relative to the baseline. To do this we use metrics recommended by the Stern Review to convert carbon emissions in tonnes into £ costs to society11.
The forecasts from Citi-Scope‟s environmental module are presented in Table 3.19 and Figs 4.36-4.39 and are largely self-explanatory. Overall Derry~Londonderry‟s CO2 emissions are forecast to fall from 1.1 k tonnes in 2007 to 0.8k tonnes in 2003. This is due to a range of factors including the restructuring of the economy away from sectors with higher carbon intensity and a fall in electricity demand etc. Importantly however Derry~Londonderry is still expected to have a higher per capita emission rate than the UK average over the entire forecast period.
Table 3.19: Total CO2 emissions, Derry~Londonderry
Carbon emmissions (k tonnes CO2 annual unless stated) 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2020 2030
Industry, commercial & energy 508 552 553 550 518 516 552 523 Domestic households 347 363 342 344 351 353 247 128 Road transport 195 190 197 194 190 185 181 156 Work commuting outside Derry 22 24 23 21 21 21 22 22 Work commuting into Derry 23 22 23 25 23 23 24 25 Work commuting within Derry 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 9 LULUCF -4 -1 0 0 0 1 7 13
Total emissions (k tonnes) 1,046 1,103 1,091 1,088 1,059 1,055 986 820 CO2 tonnes per capita 9.7 10.2 10.0 10.0 9.7 9.6 8.5 6.8
Social cost (£m, 2006 prices) 36.6 38.6 38.2 38.1 37.1 36.9 34.5 28.7 Source: DECC, Citi-Scope Model (Oxford Economics)
11 In the Stern Review report on „The economics of climate change‟, part of the report reviews literature on the social costs of carbon emissions. While estimates of unit social costs vary significantly, one conclusion is that a lower benchmark of £35 per tonne CO2 (2006 prices) is reasonable for a global decision context.
Part 1: Baseline 77
Fig 3.46: Total CO2 emissions, Fig 3.47: Total CO2 emissions per capita, Derry~Londonderry and UK Derry~Londonderry and UK
UK, NI and Derry: Total CO2 emissions UK, NI and Derry: Total CO2 emissions per capita 2005=100 Tonnes
120 Latest data Forecast 12 Latest data Forecast
11 110
10 100
9
90 8
Derry 80 Derry 7 UK UK 70 6 1991 1995 1999 2003 2007 2011 2015 2019 2023 2027 1991 1995 1999 2003 2007 2011 2015 2019 2023 2027 Source: DECC, Oxford Economics, Citi-Scope Model (Oxford Economics) Source: DECC, Oxford Economics, Citi-Scope Model (Oxford Economics) Source: DECC, ONS, NISRA, Citi-Scope Model (Oxford Source: DECC, Citi-Scope Model (Oxford Economics) Economics)
Comparing across NI councils, Derry has an above NI average total CO2 emission rate (Fig 3.48), partly driven by one of the highest emission rates, on a per job basis, for industrial, commercial and energy emissions (Fig 3.49).
Fig 3.49: Industry, commercial & energy CO2 emissions per job (average 2005-2007) Fig 3.48: Total CO emissions per capita 2 (average 2005-2007) Industry, comm. & energy CO2 emissions per job (UK North Down =100) Belfast Castlereagh Total CO2 emissions per capita (UK=100) Down Coleraine Castlereagh Newry and Mourne Carrickfergus Antrim North Down Newtownabbey Ards Limavady Newtownabb Banbridge Belfast Ards Craigavon Ballymoney Down Craigavon Coleraine Moyle Limavady Magherafelt Ballymoney Omagh Strabane Armagh Newry and Ballymena Lisburn Lisburn UK Strabane Banbridge NI Moyle Dungannon NI Carrickfergus Magherafelt UK Derry Larne Omagh Derry Larne Fermanagh Armagh Cookstown Ballymena Dungannon 0 100 200 300 400 500 Antrim Source: DECC, Oxford Economics Fermanagh Cookstown 0 50 100 150 200 250 Source: DECC, DETI Source: DECC, Oxford Economics
Note to ensure environmental outputs from Citi-Scope are set in a policy relevant context (and to aid development of environmental „risk warnings‟), it is possible to use the above results to compare long- term emission trends for Derry~Londonderry against Government targets (e.g. such as Kyoto and PSA 22 from the Programme for Government12) for emission reductions.
12 PSA 22 targets a reduction in greenhouse gas emissions of 25% below 1990 levels by 2025. Comparing forecast emissions to 1990 levels is however problematic as DECC emissions data at local government level is only available, to the best of our knowledge, from 2005.
Part 1: Baseline 78
Fiscal accounts
Construction of fiscal accounts for Derry~Londonderry has been one of the most challenging modules of the Citi-Scope Model. The results presented in this baseline report should therefore be treated as illustrative and in years 2 and 3 of the model efforts will be made to improve the estimates.
The fiscal accounts module is challenging for several reasons. These include:
. Lack of published NI historic public finance accounts as complete tax revenue data is not generally available below UK national level. Although DFP have recently shared with us public expenditure and tax figures for NI for 2006/07 from the NI Net Fiscal Balance Report which match broadly to Oxford Economics‟ published research on UK regional public finances;
. Lack of any published NI district council public finance accounts covering all areas of expenditure and tax revenue required. As such, much of the district council data needs to be estimated / apportioned from regional NI data (note more local authority public finance data is available in England);
. Complex workplace versus resident methodology issues. For example should Derry~Londonderry‟s fiscal contribution include or exclude output generated and associated corporation tax and income tax paid by in-commuters working in the city economy but living outside, and associated corporation tax and income tax paid by residents working outside the city? Similarly is all health spending on Altnagelvin hospital, located in Derry~Londonderry, attributable to the city economy or should it be apportioned pro-rata on the basis of the residential addresses of patient admissions?;
. The detailed number of sub-components which comprise total spending and total tax revenue; and
. Finally the outlook for UK public finances, and thereby the future state of NI public finances, is very uncertain and not likely to be made clearer until after the spring 2010 UK election. This, combined with the complexity forecasting individual components of public finances, makes projecting Derry~Londonderry‟s baseline fiscal accounts an extremely difficult exercise.
It is worth illustrating the level of detail in the current fiscal account module of the Citi-Scope Model to illustrate the sophistication and complexity of the analysis.
. Derry~Londonderry tax revenue – corporation tax, income tax, national insurance contributions, VAT, domestic rates, vehicle excise duty, stamp duty, fuel duty, tobacco and alcohol duty,
Part 1: Baseline 79
business rates, capital gains tax, inheritance tax, betting & gaming duties, air passenger duty, landfill duty, climate change levy, customs duties and other taxes, royalties and receipts.
. Derry~Londonderry public expenditure – general public services, defence, public order & safety, enterprise & economic development, science & technology, employment policies, agriculture forestry & fishing, transport, environment protection, housing & community amenities, health, recreation culture & religion, education & training and social protection.
It is well-known that NI as a whole receives a generous public expenditure allocation from HM Treasury with levels of public spend per capita in NI well above the UK average and in fact any other UK region (Fig 3.20). Similarly with a large public sector and comparatively under-developed private sector, the level of tax revenue receipts per capita in NI is well below the UK average. Consequently estimates of the net fiscal balance of NI pre-recession, typically termed as the „subvention‟, is in the region of minus £6-7bn, equivalent to -20 to -25% of GVA in NI. To put this in context, the comparative public finance deficit levels in both the UK and ROI today, which many commentators are describing as fiscal crises (because at national level deficits must be financed by borrowing and paying back debt over a protracted period), are around minus 11-12% GDP. In other words from a pure numbers perspective, the relative state of NI public finances pre-recession was roughly twice as bad as the current recession state of UK and ROI public finances. Our estimate of the 2010 net fiscal position of NI is a deficit of close to minus 30% expressed relative to GVA.
Table 3.20: Public spend per head (2008
Expenditure Population, Spending (£ billion) 000s (2008) per head North East 24.9 2,576 £9,657 North West 65.2 6,876 £9,484 Yorkshire & the Humber 45.5 5,213 £8,721 East Midlands 36.1 4,433 £8,154 West Midlands 47.6 5,411 £8,792 Eastern 45.7 5,729 £7,975 Greater London 83.0 7,620 £10,899 South East 69.2 8,380 £8,254 South West 47.8 5,209 £9,185 Wales 29.7 2,993 £9,921 Scotland 55.3 5,169 £10,706 Northern Ireland 20.1 1,775 £11,343 UK 570.2 61,383 £9,289 Source: PESA and Oxford Economics
Part 1: Baseline 80
Fig 3.50 below presents published figures, estimates and forecasts for net public finances in the UK, ROI, NI and Derry~Londonderry. One of the key messages from this chart is that Derry~Londonderry‟s net fiscal position is worse (i.e. more in deficit) than the NI average. Furthermore it is expected to remain so in the medium to long-term in the baseline scenario. This is not surprising given that Derry~Londonderry has a below NI average resident employment rate, levels of benefit dependency are comparatively high, unlike Belfast in-commuting is relatively low so the workplace economy (which would pay corporation tax etc) is not particularly large, and the public sector is comparatively large (therefore a higher level of associated spending is attributed to the city economy).
Fig 3.50: Net public finances (workplace-based), UK, ROI, NI and Derry~Londonderry
% GDP / GVA
10% Forecast
ROI Surplus
0% 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
UK
-10%
Deficit
-20% NI
-30% Derry
-40%
Source: HM Treasury, ONS, Department for Finance, CSO, Oxford Economics, Citi-Scope Model (Oxford Economics)
Note: UK refers to the public sector net borrowing requirement. ROI refers to the general government budget balance. NI and Derry~Londonderry refer to the net fiscal balance – public expenditure minus tax revenue.
Recall from earlier in the report the aim of Ilex „to reach, within a reasonable timescale, a situation where we have an economically sustainable city making a net economic contribution to the local economy (NI) and to the Island – a city paying its way in the world‟. Clearly Derry~Londonderry is currently far from „paying its way‟ given its estimated large fiscal deficit, and is not expected to do so under the baseline scenario. However it should also be said that according to our very preliminary analysis, only North Down across all NI councils is estimated to register a net fiscal surplus.
Part 1: Baseline 81
For thinking about targets, a more realistic and plausible aspirational fiscal scenario for Derry~Londonderry therefore might be to achieve the NI average fiscal balance position by a specified year. Achieving a net surplus might either require implausibly high employment rates, a relocation of public sector jobs outside Derry~Londonderry, major cuts in public spending (which have knock-on tax impacts) or imposition of higher taxes (which Ilex would have very limited power to do in any case).
Wider North West
As the main city in the North West, Derry~Londonderry‟s sphere of influence for labour, consumers, supply chains etc, covers Limavady, Strabane, and parts of Donegal (e.g. Letterkenny and Innishowen). This sub-section provides a short analysis of this wider North West economy.
Demographics
Like Derry~Londonderry, the wider North West economy has enjoyed population growth over the last decade (Fig 3.51). An analysis of the underlying trends highlights that natural increase (births minus deaths) has been the primary driver of population growth (Fig 3.52).
Looking forward this trend is forecast to continue, with net out migration expected to be a feature over the forecast period, with the exception of Donegal from 2014, though pre-2014 Donegal is expected to have a large net migration outflow (Fig 3.53).
Fig 3.51: Total population, North West (1990=100) Fig 3.52: Natural increase share of total population, North West
1.4 135 Limavady Limavady 1.2 130 Strabane Strabane Donegal Donegal 1.0 125 Derry Derry 0.8 120
0.6 115
0.4
Indexof total population 110
Natural increase (% population) total increase Natural 0.2 105
0.0 100
1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 Source: NISRA, Citi-Scope Model (Oxford Economics) Source: NISRA, Citi-Scope Model (Oxford Economics) Source: NISRA, Citi-Scope Model (Oxford Economics)
Part 1: Baseline 82
Fig 3.53: Net migration, North West
4.0 Limavady 3.0 Strabane Donegal 2.0 Derry
1.0 000s 0.0
1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 -1.0
-2.0
-3.0
Source: NISRA, CSO, Citi-Scope Model (Oxford Economics) Note: Total migration includes Donegal, international and domestic migration not available. Migration refers to movement in and out of council area only
Workplace employment
Total workplace employment in the North West has grown year on year since 2000, driven by growth in Donegal and Derry~Londonderry. An analysis of the local authorities shows that both Limavady and Strabane failed to secure net job growth over the period, despite the job gains at NI level. The job losses experienced to date and expected over the recession will keep both Limavady and Strabane below their 2002 level of employment during the entire forecast. In addition, the scale of the recessionary impact is such that Donegal is not expected to return to its peak 2008 level of employment over the forecast period (i.e. by 2020).
Fig 3.54: Total workplace employment, North West (2002 = 100)
120
Limavady 115 Strabane Donegal
110 Derry
105
100 Indexof total employment
95
90
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Source: DETI Census of Employment, LFS, Citi-Scope Model (Oxford Economics)
Part 1: Baseline 83
The major sectors for employment in the North West are retail (25%) and health (18%). The importance of Derry~Londonderry as an employer in the area has a significant impact on the employee structure. However comparing Fig 3.48 to Fig 3.4 shows that the wider North West is more dependent on the declining manufacturing and agricultural sectors for employment, and less dependent on business services (which is the key growth sector over the forecast period).
Fig 3.55: Sectoral employment structure, North West (2008)
Transport & comms Other personal 3% services 5% Agriculture 7% Retail & hotels Public Admin 25% 7% Financial & business services 11%
Construction 12% Extraction, Health & education manufacturing 18% &utilities 12%
Source: DETI Census of Employment, LFS, CSO, Citi-Scope Model (Oxford Economics) Note: People-based employment
Resident employment and unemployment
Like workplace employment, resident employment rates in the North West have risen over the recent period, with the exception of Limavady (though we have question marks over the data). Analysis of resident employment rates shows that while Strabane‟s workplace employment levels have fallen since 2000, its resident employment rate apparently has risen. This suggests that increasing numbers of Strabane residents have been commuting out of the area for work.
Part 1: Baseline 84
Table 3.21: Resident employment rate, North West
2001 2008 2011 2020 Limavady 63.5 53.3 49.0 48.3 Strabane 58.0 64.1 61.1 60.9 Donegal 59.0 61.2 50.1 54.5 Derry 56.1 59.5 56.0 56.0 Source: DETI LADB, CSO, Citi-Scope Model (Oxford Economics) Note: Per cent working age population
We estimate that looking forward the recession will have a considerable impact on resident employment rates. The recession is likely to speed up structural change, with manufacturing shifting further from low value added to high value added activities, and all economies becoming more service sector orientated. However city locations such as Derry~Londonderry are likely to gain much of the additional service sector jobs given the greater concentrations of available and skilled labour, businesses and transport links. Furthermore those areas suffering the greatest job loss are also likely to experience a legacy of skills mismatch.
Intuitively, we have seen rising unemployment rates and expect future unemployment to remain above the recent low levels enjoyed in the North West. The scale of the recession in Ireland and the short- term impact of the exchange rate will leave Donegal with the highest rate of unemployment over the short-term in the North West. However with exchange rate movements and recovery in the labour market, plus an expected outflow of Eastern European migrants, Donegal should experience a faster decline in its rate of unemployment while Limavady, Strabane and Derry~Londonderry are expected to experience relatively little improvement.
Fig 3.56: ILO unemployment rate, North West
22
20
18
16
14
12
10 Limavady Strabane 8 Derry 6 Donegal 4
2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019
Source: Census Office for NI, LFS, NOMIS, CSO, Citi-Scope Model (Oxford Economics) Note: Per cent of labour force
Part 1: Baseline 85
Economic inactivity
Despite Donegal and Derry~Londonderry enjoying rising levels of employment and all of the North West reaching low levels of unemployment, inactivity has remained an underlying problem. Fig 3.57 shows that each local economy in 2009 suffered from higher levels of inactivity relative to NI. In particular Limavady was some 14 percentage points above the regional average (at least according to LADB data).
Fig 3.57: Economic inactivity and ILO unemployment, North West (2009)
% working age pop
60% Economically inactive
ILO unemployed (Census-scaled)
50%
40%
30% 42% 35% 37% 32% 20% 29%
10%
10% 8% 9% 8% 6% 0% Derry Limavady Strabane Donegal NI
Source: Census Office for NI, DSD, DEL, CSO Census, CSO QNHS, Citi-Scope Model (Oxford Economics) Note: ILO unemployment expressed as a per cent of working age population rather than a per cent of labour force as in Fig 3.56
Output / GVA
Again, as noted in Section 3.4 earlier, GVA data at local level can be volatile and should be treated with caution, especially as it needs to be estimated from wider NUTS 3 data north and south. However with that caveat, Fig 3.49 presents estimates of GVA for the wider North West economies. Given our approach to estimating GVA, historic and future growth closely follows that of total employment shown above.
As such the recession will have a significant impact on GVA, particularly for Donegal. However over the forecast period all economies are expected to recover any loses in GVA and return to growth.
Part 1: Baseline 86
Fig 3.58: Index of total GVA, North West (2000 = 100)
200
Limavady 180 Strabane Donegal 160 Derry
140
Index of total GVA total of Index 120
100
80
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
Source: ONS Regional Accounts, CSO Regional Accounts, Citi-Scope Model (Oxford Economics)
In 2007, productivity in Limavady and Strabane lagged behind the Derry average. As a result of future estimated economic growth being concentrated in urban areas, we expect this performance gap to widen over the forecast period. As stated earlier Derry~Londonderry is expected to remain close to the NI average, while productivity in Donegal is estimated to remain well above the NI average (given our baseline exchange rate forecasts). This is partly explained by the inclusion of multinational profits in ROI GVA data, which contributes on average 15-20% more to GVA levels than in NI. The low rate of corporation tax in the south has been a key factor, alongside a rapidly improving skills offering, in attracting multinational corporations to locate in Ireland and declare a significant proportion of profits there.
Table 3.22: Productivity, North West
2007 2009 2011 2015 2019 (£000s) (£000s) (£000s) (£000s) (£000s) Limavady 27.0 26.3 27.2 29.0 30.2 Strabane 25.0 23.9 24.8 26.5 27.6 Donegal 42.6 41.9 46.5 49.9 56.2 Derry 30.8 30.1 31.2 34.0 36.1 Source: ONS Regional Accounts, CSO Regional Accounts, DETI Census of Employment, LFS, CSO, Citi-Scope Model (Oxford Economics) Note: 2005 prices. Donegal figures converted to £ using 2005 exchange rates
Part 1: Baseline 87
House prices
Local area house prices are forecast in Citi-Scope for Limavady, Strabane and Derry~Londonderry. Donegal data is unfortunately not available post-2006 and is not currently forecast in Citi-Scope. Despite this, it is clear that the unprecedented levels of housing demand and access to cheap mortgages resulted in house prices more than tripling since 2000 (Fig 3.59).
The inevitable housing correction has eroded a significant share of the prices rise, and affordability levels have already improved significantly, signalled by a decline in the affordability ratio (Fig 3.60). As discussed earlier, affordability levels are not estimated to rise again over the forecast period given mortgage lenders attitudes to risk, and the still high levels of consumer debt.
Fig 3.59: House prices, North West 250
Limavady
200 Strabane
) Donegal s
Derry 000
£ 150 (
100 House pricesHouse 50
-
1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 Source: University of Ulster, Bank of Ireland, ESRI / TSB, Citi-Scope Model (Oxford Economics) Note: Donegal figures are presented in £ using annual exchange rates. Citi-Scope does not yet forecast Donegal house prices
Fig 3.60: Housing affordability, North West
14
12 Limavady Strabane 10 Derry
8
6
4 More affordable House price affordability Houseprice ratio 2
0
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Source: University of Ulster, Bank of Ireland, ASHE, Citi-Scope Model (Oxford Economics) Note: Donegal is excluded from affordability analysis and North West affordability ratio as Donegal wage data not available
Part 1: Baseline 88
Looking within – a city of disparity
The Derry~Londonderry city economy faces a relatively unique set of economic, social and political challenges in a UK or Irish context.
Its resident population is to a large degree segregated on religious grounds (and thereby cultural grounds also). In one third of wards, 90% of the population is either Catholic or Protestant (although this is not uncommon across other parts of NI, particularly in Belfast).
This has led to significant differences in economic and social outcomes and behaviour at ward level. For example differences in commuting patterns, skills outturns and economic activity status across wards. This adds greater complexity to formulating an inclusive regeneration plan for the city.
This chapter provides a brief discussion on how the Citi-Scope Model measures and forecasts economic outcomes across wards, and hence equality.
This is accompanied by: . A snapshot of current disparity indicators (measured on a resident basis) – employment rate, highest qualifications, education attainment, school leaver destinations and labour mobility (proxied by commuting destinations). We also include brief analysis of the recent pattern of net job creation by ward workplace location.
. A brief overview of baseline forecasts for wards.
. Aggregate measures of current and future Derry~Londonderry disparity indicators and benchmarking against other NI councils – the primary purpose of this sub-section is to analyse aggregate trends in inequality and compare the extent of disparity in Derry~Londonderry with other NI councils to understand how „unequal‟ the city economy is. Note in a market economy such as the UK or Ireland, some degree of inequality is inevitable. The key issue is the extent of, and trend in, inequality.
. Convergence or divergence in ward inequality in the baseline scenario – a brief look, in terms of employment rates and highest qualifications, at whether convergence or divergence in ward economic outcomes is predicted under the baseline scenario.
Note this chapter is a high-level summary of the annex ward forecast profiles in Annex E. Annex D provides more data on the construction of the ward data, model and forecast approach.
We start by setting out the challenges measuring and forecasting inequality at ward level.
Part 1: Baseline 89
Box 4.1: Challenges measuring and forecasting inequality at ward level
Inequality is a complex and data-hungry indicator to measure and forecast. The most widely used indicator is the Gini coefficient. This measures, on a scale of 0 to 1, the extent of disparities in household incomes. As such it is often calculated from large-scale national household surveys of sufficient sample size to produce robust results.
For Derry~Londonderry, sufficient and robust ward household income data is not available (nor indeed is it for other urban areas in UK and Ireland). The Family Resource Survey, managed by DSD, collects district council household income data but sample sizes are extremely small given the cost of running the survey.
There are small area income statistics available from companies such as MapInfo, Experian, CACI and others. These have not been used in this study partly due to cost, partly concerns about their respective methodologies and partly due to inconsistencies with the data used elsewhere in Citi- Scope.
Nevertheless to overcome these problems, the Citi-Scope Model focuses on estimates and forecasts for ward resident employment rates (a direct economic outcome indicator) and ward resident highest level of working age qualifications (an indicator of ward skills / employment potential). It should be noted that employment rates and income are positively correlated so in a very indirect way, income inequality is being measured. (In reality however benefit payments for the non-employed means that disparities in household incomes may be less than disparities in employment rates).
To proxy for an aggregate measure of inequality, in a similar way to the Gini coefficient, the Citi- Scope Model then estimates the standard deviation of employment rates and qualifications across wards (i.e. the spread / differentials of characteristics between wards).
In addition, the Citi-Scope Model also stores other indicators which can be used to assess inequality, but are more difficult to forecast – e.g. quality of life indicators.
Snapshot of current disparity indicators
As said above, this section provides a snapshot of current disparity indicators, primarily measured on a resident basis.
Resident employment rate
Disparities in ward resident employment rates are stark, both in terms of actual data from the 2001 Census and estimated ward employment rate data for 2008 from the Citi-Scope Model (Figs 4.1 and 4.2).
Part 1: Baseline 90
Census data in 2001 showed that only Kilfennan (1 of 30 wards) had a resident employment rate over 70% (across all NI wards more than 2 in 5 wards had resident employment rates over 70% in 2001).
Strikingly three wards had employment rates below 40%, with Brandywell the worst performer with an employment rate of 34% - this was the third lowest employment rate across all NI wards in 2001 bar Falls and Whiterock in Belfast.
Estimates for 2008 employment rates suggest that while there have been some improvements during the „golden era‟ for the NI economy and in line with the Derry~Londonderry average trend (6 wards now have employment rates above 70%), a significant number of wards still have employment rates below 50% (5 compared to 9 in 2001). An important message from this is that growth for the city as a whole has had „trickle down‟ benefits across wards, although some areas have benefited more than others.
Fig 4.1: Working age resident employment Fig 4.2: Working age resident employment rate, Derry~Londonderry wards (2001) rate, Derry~Londonderry wards (2008)
Derry: Resident employment rate (2001)
Brandywell Creggan Central Creggan < 50% Brandywell Creggan South Creggan South The Diamond Crevagh Shantallow East Shantallow East Strand The Diamond Carn Hill Strand Shantallow Shantallow Westland Carn Hill Beechwood Enagh Crevagh Westland Victoria Culmore Rosemount Victoria Culmore Rosemount Derry Beechwood Enagh Derry Springtown Holly Mount Caw Springtown Clondermot Claudy Pennyburn Caw Holly Mount Clondermot Foyle Springs Pennyburn Claudy Foyle Springs Altnagelvin Altnagelvin Lisnagelvin Lisnagelvin Banagher Banagher New Buildings New Buildings Ebrington Eglinton Ballynashallog Ebrington Eglinton Ballynashallog Kilfennan Kilfennan 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% Source: Census Office for NI, Citi-Scope Model (Oxford Economics)
Fig 4.3 presents estimates of actual minus expected resident employment rates in 2001, similar to the analysis undertaken earlier for Derry versus NI. To recap, the actual resident employment rate is the number of working age residents employed in any location divided by the resident working age population of a particular ward according to 2001 Census data. The expected resident employment rate is the employment rate „expected‟ if the employment rates by age and skill level in the ward in question were exactly the same as the Derry average. In other words this analysis „controls‟ for the skills and age structures of each ward to proxy the „propensity to work‟ (as skills and age are strongly correlated with employment rates). We recognise that this proxy may also reflect local ward demand, however as the analysis is solely within Derry~Londonderry, the demand at city level applies uniformly
Part 1: Baseline 91 across all wards. It may though pick up labour mobility issues where actual employment rates are lower than expected due to a combination of „propensity to work‟ and the spatial pattern of where jobs are being created and mobility of residents in respective wards.
Again there are significant differences across the Derry~Londonderry wards. While Kilfennan and Banagher have an estimated 10% higher propensity to work, Brandywell, Creggan Central, Strand, the Diamond and Creggan South have a propensity to work at least 10% less than expected.
If actual employment rates were equivalent to expected employment rates (i.e. all wards had the same „propensity to work‟), only one ward (Creggan Central) would still have a resident employment rate below 50% in 2008
Fig 4.3: Working age actual minus expected (given skills and age structure)
resident employment rate, Derry~Londonderry wards (2001)
Derry: Actual minus expected resident employment rate (2001) Brandywell Creggan Central Strand The Diamond Creggan South Employment rate Shantallow West actual > expected Shantallow East Westland given skills and Rosemount age structure Carn Hill Beechwood (higher propensity Crevagh to work) Culmore Victoria Springtown Pennyburn Enagh Employment rate Foyle Springs actual < expected Clondermot given skills and age Ballynashallog Caw structure (lower Altnagelvin propensity to work) Holly Mount Claudy New Buildings Ebrington Lisnagelvin Eglinton Banagher Kilfennan -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% Source: Census Office for NI, Citi-Scope Model (Oxford Economics)
As a result, while the Regeneration Plan will have the challenge of raising employment rates across Derry~Londonderry as a whole, it will have to be cognisant of the different needs and challenges of its wards. For certain wards with a low „propensity to work‟, the availability of jobs, particularly if low paid relative to the level of social security benefits, may not be the only solution to raising employment rates. Understanding „propensity to work‟ reasons will be crucial to effective development of the Regeneration Plan and requires local knowledge beyond the capacity of modelling relying on primarily on published data.
Part 1: Baseline 92
Resident working age qualifications
The scale of the challenge is perhaps even more apparent when considering the skills profile of the resident working age population in each ward (Figs 4.4 to 4.7). Remember the correlation between skills and employment rates and wages; hence skills are important for final labour market outcomes and income. Also the previous chapter discussed the likelihood that a higher share of jobs will require higher skill levels in the future.
Given the relative under-performance of Derry~Londonderry in a sub-regional context (for example the share of graduates compared to Belfast and comparative lack of in-commuting), the relative skills under-performance of some of its wards is a concern.
Employment growth in secondary and support sectors will be more limited going forward (following the retail and construction booms of the last decade), and therefore the employment opportunities open to those with no qualifications will be restricted. Achieving equitable future growth across the city will therefore be increasingly difficult in the absence of improvements in resident skills.
Based on 2001 Census data, the vast majority of wards are vulnerable by having over half their working age population with no qualifications and less than one in five residents skilled to graduate level. (Note earlier analysis at Derry~Londonderry level was based on DETI LADB and Census data – ward analysis is based solely on Census data, so 2008 data extrapolated from 2001 Census data is not comparable with 2008 DETI LADB working age skills data)
Although we estimate the skills position of wards to have improved considerably by 2008 (as older, less qualified persons exit the working age cohort and are replaced by higher skilled young persons), major difference across wards still exist, and a significant number of wards are still estimated to have one in every three residents with no formal qualifications.
Part 1: Baseline 93
Fig 4.4: Working age resident highest Fig 4.5: Working age resident highest qualification – graduate, Derry~Londonderry qualification – graduate, Derry~Londonderry wards (2001) wards (2008)
Derry: Resident graduate qualifications (2001) Derry: Resident graduate qualifications (2008) Creggan South Creggan South Creggan Central Working age Creggan Working age Brandywell Brandywell Shantallow East Shantallow Carn Hill Carn Hill Banagher Crevagh The Diamond The Diamond Crevagh Banagher Ebrington Ebrington Westland Westland Shantallow West Victoria Victoria Shantallow Beechwood Holly Mount Lisnagelvin Enagh Claudy Beechwood Caw Claudy Holly Mount Caw Enagh Derry Derry Lisnagelvin Springtown Springtown Clondermot New Buildings New Buildings Clondermot Altnagelvin Altnagelvin Kilfennan Culmore Culmore Eglinton Foyle Springs Kilfennan Eglinton Rosemount Rosemount Foyle Springs Strand Strand Pennyburn Pennyburn Ballynashallog Ballynashallog 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% Source: Census Office for NI, Citi-Scope Model (Oxford Economics) Source: Citi-Scope Model (Oxford Economics)
Fig 4.6: Working age resident highest Fig 4.7: Working age resident highest qualification – no qualifications, qualification – no qualifications, Derry~Londonderry wards (2001) Derry~Londonderry wards (2008)
Working age Derry: Resident no qualifications (2001) Ballynashallog Ballynashallog Pennyburn Working age Pennyburn Ebrington Ebrington Kilfennan Kilfennan Strand Strand Foyle Springs Foyle Springs Eglinton Springtown Springtown New Buildings Culmore Rosemount New Buildings Eglinton Rosemount Culmore Altnagelvin Altnagelvin Clondermot Lisnagelvin Derry Clondermot Lisnagelvin Derry Claudy Claudy Holly Mount Beechwood Shantallow Westland Enagh Caw Victoria Victoria Caw Banagher Beechwood Shantallow Crevagh Enagh Banagher The Diamond Westland Crevagh The Diamond Holly Mount Carn Hill Carn Hill Shantallow Shantallow Brandywell Source:Brandywell Citi-Scope Model (Oxford Economics) Creggan Creggan Creggan South Creggan South 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% Source: Census Office for NI, Citi-Scope Model (Oxford Economics)
Resident educational attainment and school leaver destinations
As stated above, older, less qualified persons are exiting the working age cohort and are being replaced by higher skilled young persons. However the pattern of educational at attainment of school leavers at ward level is far from uniform. Data from the Department for Education‟s School Leaver Survey (Fig 4.8) shows that while half of wards have more than two-thirds of school leavers achieving at least 5+ GCSEs with grades A*-C, 5 wards have less than half achieving this level.
Part 1: Baseline 94
This disparity is even more apparent from school leaver destination data (Fig 4.9). At the top end over half of school leavers in a number of wards go onto higher education compared to just 1 in 5 for a number of the bottom ranked wards. Though it should be said that these high ranked wards may not necessarily benefit as many of the young persons going onto higher education will study outside the city and may not return to live in the same ward and work in the city. These patterns may well change significantly as a result of the recession.
Fig 4.8: Share of school leavers Fig 4.9: Share of school leaver with at least 5+ A*-C GCSEs, destinations – higher education, Derry~Londonderry wards Derry~Londonderry wards
(2007/08) (2007/08) Derry: School leavers achieving at least 5+ A*-C GCSEs Derry: School leavers destination HE (2007/08) (2007/08) Ballynashallog Ballynashallog Eglinton Eglinton Foyle Springs Foyle Springs Banagher New Buildings Beechwood Beechwood Clondermot Banagher Claudy Enagh Culmore Claudy Strand Strand Creggan Central Culmore The Diamond Crevagh New Buildings Springtown Rosemount Shantallow Pennyburn Holly Mount Enagh The Diamond Springtown Pennyburn Crevagh Rosemount Brandywell Kilfennan Shantallow Caw Carn Hill Carn Hill Kilfennan Shantallow East Caw Creggan Central Shantallow East Clondermot Altnagelvin Altnagelvin Holly Mount Westland Westland Victoria Ebrington Brandywell Lisnagelvin Ebrington Creggan South Creggan South Victoria Lisnagelvin 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Source: DE School Leaver Survey Source: DE School Leaver Survey Resident labour mobility
Analysis of commuting patterns, as well as resident employment rates, highlights a number of issues for the development of the Regeneration Plan.
Overall commuting by Derry~Londonderry residents is relatively restricted. In some wards, over 50% of those employed work within the ward, or in those surrounding it (Fig 4.10).
Typically speaking for Derry~Londonderry, the higher the percent of people working within the ward or in contiguous wards (a proxy for mobility), the higher the resident employment rate (Fig 4.11). Intuitively then, the higher the resident employment rate, the lower the proportion of residents working outside the ward, city centre and contiguous wards. (Although the R-squared value, the strength of the association, is weak)
This relationship is slightly surprising as it might have been expected that wards with more mobile residents would have had higher employment rates. It may though also be telling us that there are few jobs in locations with low employment rates such as Creggan Central and South, which subsequently
Part 1: Baseline 95 forces residents to commute further than they might ideally want to [combined, the Creggan wards have only 1% of the city‟s total jobs (yet 5% of the working age population)].
Fig 4.10: Commuting mobility – work in ward Fig 4.11: Commuting mobility – work in ward and contiguous wards (2001) and contiguous wards – relationship with resident employment rate (2001) Derry: Commuting - work in ward and contiguous wards (2001) Derry: Commuting and resident employment rate Ebrington Strand The Diamond 80% Foyle Springs Enagh Claudy Banagher Pennyburn 70% Eglinton Holly Mount Carn Hill Rosemount 60% Caw Springtown Clondermot Victoria Lisnagelvin 50% Brandywell Kilfennan Westland Altnagelvin 40% Ballynashallog Crevagh Culmore
New Buildings rate (2001) employment Resident Creggan South 30% Shantallow y = 0.2258x + 0.4727 Beechwood 2 Shantallow East R = 0.0792 Creggan Central 20% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% Source: Census Office for NI, Citi-Scope Model (Oxford Economics) % work in ward and contiguous ward (2001) Source: Census Office for NI, Citi-Scope Model (Oxford Economics)
Fig 4.12: Commuting mobility – work outside Fig 4.13: Commuting mobility – work outside ward, city centre and contiguous wards ward, city centre and contiguous wards – (2001) relationship with resident employment rate (2001) Derry: Commuting - work outside ward, continguous ward and city centre (2001) Derry: Commuting and resident employment rate New Buildings Westland Shantallow East 80% Victoria Altnagelvin Shantallow West Creggan Central 70% Kilfennan Lisnagelvin Beechwood Creggan South Culmore 60% Crevagh Brandywell Rosemount Clondermot 50% Eglinton Banagher Ballynashallog Caw 40% Pennyburn Holly Mount The Diamond
Strand rate (2001) Residentemployment Claudy 30% Foyle Springs y = -0.2385x + 0.6688 Enagh R2 = 0.0316 Springtown Carn Hill 20% Ebrington 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% % work outside ward, city centre and contiguous ward (2001) Source: Census Office for NI, Citi-Scope Model (Oxford Economics) Source: Census Office for NI, Citi-Scope Model (Oxford Economics)
Not fully satisfied with this analysis, we extended it one stage further by estimating average commuting distances for each ward (Fig 4.14). This is based on the distance between the ward in question and all employment destinations (wards in Derry and councils outside), weighted by numbers commuting to each location. Comparing average commuting distances in the 2001 Census year to resident employment rates (Fig 4.15), suggests a positive association does in fact exist between mobility and the likelihood of being in work.
Part 1: Baseline 96
Fig 4.15: Average commuting distance – relationship with resident employment rate, Fig 4.14: Average commuting distance, Derry~Londonderry wards (2001) Derry~Londonderry wards (2001) Derry: Commuting and resident employment rate Derry: Commuting average distance (miles, 2001) 80%
Banagher Strand Claudy 70% Eglinton New Buildings Altnagelvin Pennyburn 60% Banagher Holly Mount Lisnagelvin Enagh Ballynashallog Culmore 50% Westland Springtown Kilfennan Foyle Springs 40% Shantallow East Victoria
Carn Hill rate (2001) Residentemployment Creggan Central Brandywell 30% Shantallow y = 0.0304x + 0.3373 Caw R2 = 0.364 Rosemount Creggan South Beechwood 20% Crevagh 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 Brandywell Clondermot Average commuting distance in miles (2001) The Diamond Ebrington Source: Census Office for NI, Citi-Scope Model (Oxford Economics) 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 Source: Census Office for NI, Citi-Scope Model (Oxford Economics)
One other piece of analysis worth exploring in relation to commuting is evidence on willingness to work across locations. If commuting in Derry~Londonderry wards is split by East and West of the River Foyle, we find that residents are significantly more likely to work in the wider East-West area they live. In the case of Ebrington for example, over three-quarters of residents choose to work east of the River Foyle (where they reside), while only 17% choose to work west of the River Foyle (which includes the core city centre wards of Strand and Diamond). The Ebrington analysis however may have been skewed by army personnel based and working at the barracks. Over 70% of Brandywell and Westland employed residents work west of the Foyle, where these wards are located.
This suggests that at a more aggregated level of analysis (East versus West of the river), there are potential issues with labour mobility which should be borne in mind when thinking about the ward-level resident employment impact from major sites located on either sides of the River Foyle (e.g. Fort George and Ebrington).
Table 4.1: Selected Derry~Londonderry ward commuting patterns (2001)
Work in city centre (Strand Work East of Work West of and The Foyle Foyle Diamond)
East of Foyle Ebrington 10% 76% 17% Victoria 17% 57% 34%
West of Foyle Brandyw ell 34% 20% 72% Westland 27% 18% 71%
Source: Census Office for NI, Citi-Scope Model (Oxford Economics)
Part 1: Baseline 97
Workplace employment
The final analysis of this section focuses on where net job creation has occurred since 2001 (Fig 4.16).
This reveals that employment levels in approximately half of Derry~Londonderry‟s wards grew during the „golden era‟ for the NI economy, while the other half experienced a decline.
The Strand, in the city centre, has been the top performing ward (in absolute net job terms) with more than double the net employment growth of any other ward. Pennyburn on the other hand (the Strand‟s neighbour) experienced the largest fall in employment over the period.
Overall job creation has been concentrated in a small number of wards (in addition the spatial distribution of workplace jobs is similarly concentrated – 5 wards contain half of Derry~Londonderry‟s jobs). This is by no means unique to Derry~Londonderry – Belfast has an even greater concentration of jobs and recent job creation in its city centre wards – nor a bad thing necessarily as it can facilitate more efficient provision of transport infrastructure if a large share of employees work in nearby locations (not to mention potential clustering benefits).
Though where labour mobility is a barrier to employment (and in the absence of changing the commuting attitudes of residents), a scenario where job creation is concentrated in certain wards may prevent some wards from fully benefiting from the opportunities and the realisation of more equitable employment growth to close employment rate gaps.
It should however be recognised that equitable employment growth is difficult to achieve and would require a number of complimentary policies – improving the spatial pattern of where jobs are created (bringing jobs to the people – but businesses will want to choose where to locate), supporting greater labour mobility, improving skills and improving the „propensity to work‟ in lagging wards.
Derry: Workplace net job creation (2001-2008)
Pennyburn Claudy Job-based New Buildings Enagh Shantallow East Holly Mount Rosemount Ebrington Crevagh Beechwood Creggan Central Caw Ballynashallog Culmore Creggan South Westland Kilfennan Banagher Lisnagelvin Shantallow West Eglinton Victoria Brandywell Altnagelvin Clondermot Carn Hill Springtown The Diamond Foyle Springs Strand -1,000 -500 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 Source: Census Office for NI, DETI, Citi-Scope Model (Oxford Economics)
Part 1: Baseline 98
Aggregate measures of Derry~Londonderry disparities and trends – how unequal in relative terms?
Baseline ward forecasts
Before looking at aggregate measures of inequality across wards, both historically and in future, we felt it useful to present recent trends and forecasts for the key variables at ward level which underpin the equality analysis. Tables 4.2-4.6 below therefore cover ward: total resident population, workplace employment, resident employment rates, unemployment rates (% working age population) and the working age resident shares of graduate (NVQ4+) highest qualifications. More detail on individual wards is presented in the forecast profiles in Annex E.
Table 4.2: Total population (000s), Derry~Londonderry wards 1998-2008 2008-2010 2010-2020 1998 2008 2010 2020 (% annual (% annual (% annual avg) avg) avg) Altnagelvin 4.3 4.7 4.7 4.8 0.8% -0.1% 0.2% Ballynashallog 4.0 3.5 3.4 3.1 -1.3% -1.4% -0.9% Banagher 3.0 3.4 3.3 3.9 1.3% -1.4% 1.7% Beechw ood 2.7 2.3 2.2 2.0 -1.5% -1.7% -1.2% Brandyw ell 2.6 2.2 2.2 1.7 -1.6% -1.4% -2.2% Carn Hill 3.4 3.0 3.0 2.8 -1.2% -0.3% -0.5% Caw 2.9 2.6 2.5 2.3 -1.1% -1.1% -0.9% Claudy 2.9 3.3 3.3 3.3 1.3% 0.4% -0.2% Clondermot 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.1 0.1% 0.8% 0.3% Creggan Central 3.1 3.0 2.9 2.8 -0.5% -1.0% -0.5% Creggan South 2.5 2.4 2.3 2.2 -0.7% -0.4% -0.6% Crevagh 5.5 6.6 6.8 8.4 1.8% 1.0% 2.3% Culmore 6.3 9.2 9.9 11.6 3.8% 3.7% 1.6% Ebrington 3.5 2.5 2.5 2.3 -3.1% 0.1% -0.8% Eglinton 3.9 4.6 4.7 5.3 1.6% 1.1% 1.2% Enagh 3.2 5.2 5.2 7.5 4.7% 0.8% 3.6% Foyle Springs 4.1 3.9 3.9 3.8 -0.6% 0.8% -0.3% Holly Mount 3.6 5.1 5.4 7.3 3.6% 3.5% 3.0% Kilfennan 3.4 3.1 3.1 2.9 -0.9% -0.4% -0.6% Lisnagelvin 3.6 3.3 3.3 3.0 -0.8% -0.3% -0.9% New Buildings 3.8 3.6 3.5 3.4 -0.6% -0.9% -0.3% Pennyburn 3.1 2.6 2.5 2.3 -1.7% -1.6% -1.2% Rosemount 2.7 2.3 2.4 2.2 -1.4% 0.6% -0.7% Shantallow East 2.8 2.6 2.6 2.4 -0.7% -0.8% -0.8% Shantallow West 6.5 6.9 7.1 7.6 0.7% 1.1% 0.7% Springtow n 3.8 3.6 3.6 3.5 -0.7% -0.2% 0.0% Strand 3.6 3.6 3.7 3.6 0.1% 1.2% -0.2% The Diamond 2.6 2.3 2.3 2.1 -1.3% -0.3% -1.1% Victoria 2.6 2.7 2.7 3.1 0.1% 1.1% 1.3% Westland 2.4 2.1 2.1 1.9 -1.4% -0.3% -1.0% Derry 105.5 109.1 110.2 116.2 0.3% 0.5% 0.5%
Source: Census Office for NI, DSD, NISRA, Citi-Scope Model (Oxford Economics)
Part 1: Baseline 99
Table 4.3: Total workplace employment (job-based, 000s), Derry~Londonderry wards
1998-2008 (% 2008-2010 (% 2010-2020 (% 1998 2008 2010 2020 annual avg) annual avg) annual avg)
Altnagelvin 3.1 3.8 3.7 3.9 2.0% -0.2% 0.4% Ballynashallog 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.7% -2.3% 1.0% Banagher 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.8 1.3% -4.6% 0.7% Beechwood 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.2 -3.5% -2.1% 0.5% Brandywell 0.3 0.7 0.7 0.7 10.4% -0.4% 0.1% Carn Hill 0.7 1.5 1.5 1.5 8.6% 0.2% 0.1% Caw 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.4 -0.7% -3.5% -0.2% Claudy 1.1 0.6 0.5 0.5 -6.6% -5.5% 0.5% Clondermot 1.0 1.5 1.5 1.5 4.6% -1.2% 0.2% Creggan Central 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 -0.6% -0.3% 0.2% Creggan South 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 1.9% -0.6% 0.3% Crevagh 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.5 -2.4% -4.0% 2.1% Culmore 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.3 0.7% -1.5% 0.9% Ebrington 2.0 1.9 1.9 2.0 -0.1% -1.0% 0.4% Eglinton 3.2 3.3 3.1 3.3 0.4% -3.6% 0.5% Enagh 3.6 3.2 3.0 3.3 -1.3% -2.5% 0.9% Foyle Springs 1.6 2.3 2.1 2.1 3.6% -3.5% -0.1% Holly Mount 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.6 -3.5% -3.4% 2.4% Kilfennan 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 1.5% -1.3% 0.1% Lisnagelvin 0.7 1.0 1.0 1.0 3.8% -1.8% 0.1% New Buildings 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.2 -12.1% -13.5% 2.3% Pennyburn 4.3 3.3 2.9 2.9 -2.8% -5.6% 0.1% Rosemount 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 -2.6% -1.0% 1.0% Shantallow East 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.2 -6.5% -1.4% 0.7% Shantallow West 0.5 0.8 0.8 0.8 5.3% -1.5% 0.4% Springtown 1.0 2.0 1.9 2.3 7.6% -3.0% 1.9% Strand 5.3 7.9 7.8 8.3 4.2% -0.6% 0.6% The Diamond 4.4 5.7 5.6 5.8 2.7% -1.4% 0.5% Victoria 1.5 2.1 2.0 2.1 3.1% -0.9% 0.6% Westland 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 1.6% -0.7% 0.5% Derry 43.1 49.6 47.6 50.3 1.4% -2.0% 0.5%
Source: Census Office for NI, DETI Census of Employment, Citi-Scope Model (Oxford Economics)
Part 1: Baseline 100
Table 4.4: Resident employment rate (% working age population), Derry~Londonderry wards
2001-2008 2008-2010 2010-2020 2001 2008 2010 2020 (pp change) (pp change) (pp change)
Altnagelvin 65% 68% 65% 66% 2.9 -2.4 0.9 Ballynashallog 68% 75% 74% 75% 7.2 -0.7 0.6 Banagher 65% 69% 66% 64% 3.6 -2.9 -2.1 Beechwood 50% 58% 57% 61% 8.5 -1.2 4.3 Brandywell 34% 40% 40% 45% 5.9 0.3 4.8 Carn Hill 46% 54% 53% 55% 7.4 -0.8 1.7 Caw 58% 65% 63% 66% 6.7 -1.6 3.0 Claudy 63% 64% 62% 64% 0.6 -1.9 2.5 Clondermot 61% 65% 62% 62% 4.8 -3.2 -0.2 Creggan Central 35% 35% 34% 35% 0.4 -0.6 0.9 Creggan South 37% 42% 40% 42% 5.3 -1.9 1.9 Crevagh 50% 49% 45% 41% -1.1 -3.8 -4.5 Culmore 56% 57% 52% 49% 0.8 -4.3 -3.2 Ebrington 67% 72% 70% 70% 4.9 -2.2 0.3 Eglinton 69% 71% 69% 67% 2.0 -2.6 -1.1 Enagh 56% 54% 50% 44% -2.3 -4.2 -6.2 Foyle Springs 62% 68% 66% 68% 5.9 -1.4 2.0 Holly Mount 61% 59% 55% 50% -1.9 -4.7 -4.5 Kilfennan 74% 76% 75% 75% 2.3 -0.7 0.0 Lisnagelvin 65% 68% 68% 69% 2.4 -0.2 1.3 New Buildings 66% 70% 68% 70% 3.5 -2.3 2.9 Pennyburn 61% 67% 67% 69% 5.8 -0.1 1.9 Rosemount 53% 57% 54% 58% 4.9 -3.3 3.7 Shantallow East 44% 49% 47% 49% 5.3 -2.0 2.5 Shantallow West 47% 52% 50% 49% 5.0 -2.7 -1.2 Springtown 57% 63% 62% 64% 6.1 -1.4 2.3 Strand 46% 51% 48% 49% 4.3 -2.8 1.5 The Diamond 43% 50% 48% 50% 6.8 -2.5 2.6 Victoria 51% 57% 52% 51% 5.5 -4.5 -1.6 Westland 48% 56% 54% 57% 8.1 -2.4 3.5 Derry 56% 59% 57% 56% 3.4 -2.5 -0.9
Source: Census Office for NI, DETI LADB, Citi-Scope Model (Oxford Economics)
Part 1: Baseline 101
Table 4.5: ILO (Census-scaled) unemployment (% working age population), Derry~Londonderry wards
2001-2008 2008-2010 2010-2020 2001 2008 2010 2020 (pp change) (pp change) (pp change)
Altnagelvin 6% 4% 7% 7% -1.8 3.0 -0.7 Ballynashallog 4% 1% 4% 3% -2.1 2.1 -0.4 Banagher 5% 2% 5% 5% -2.7 3.0 -0.4 Beechwood 9% 5% 8% 7% -4.4 3.0 -0.9 Brandywell 13% 10% 14% 12% -3.1 3.6 -1.6 Carn Hill 11% 6% 10% 9% -4.4 3.6 -1.0 Caw 7% 5% 7% 6% -2.2 2.3 -0.8 Claudy 7% 6% 8% 7% -0.4 2.1 -0.8 Clondermot 7% 3% 6% 6% -4.0 3.8 -0.6 Creggan Central 14% 11% 15% 14% -2.9 4.0 -1.3 Creggan South 12% 10% 14% 13% -2.2 3.7 -1.2 Crevagh 8% 6% 10% 9% -2.7 4.1 -0.8 Culmore 7% 5% 8% 8% -2.8 3.7 -0.5 Ebrington 6% 4% 7% 6% -1.8 2.4 -0.6 Eglinton 5% 3% 5% 5% -2.0 2.8 -0.4 Enagh 7% 5% 11% 10% -2.1 6.4 -0.7 Foyle Springs 6% 3% 5% 5% -3.0 2.0 -0.5 Holly Mount 6% 4% 8% 8% -2.8 4.8 -0.4 Kilfennan 4% 3% 5% 4% -1.3 1.7 -0.5 Lisnagelvin 6% 5% 6% 6% -1.3 1.8 -0.7 New Buildings 4% 3% 7% 6% -1.2 3.6 -0.7 Pennyburn 5% 2% 4% 3% -3.1 1.5 -0.5 Rosemount 10% 7% 13% 11% -3.4 5.7 -1.4 Shantallow East 10% 6% 10% 9% -3.6 3.8 -1.0 Shantallow West 9% 6% 9% 9% -3.4 3.3 -0.7 Springtown 7% 4% 7% 6% -2.9 2.5 -0.7 Strand 12% 8% 11% 10% -3.6 3.2 -0.9 The Diamond 13% 9% 14% 13% -4.5 5.1 -1.3 Victoria 12% 8% 14% 12% -4.5 6.0 -1.1 Westland 10% 7% 11% 10% -2.8 3.5 -1.0 Derry 8% 5% 9% 8% -2.8 3.5 -0.7
Source: Census Office for NI, NOMIS, Citi-Scope Model (Oxford Economics)
Part 1: Baseline 102
Table 4.6: Resident share of NVQ 4+ highest qualifications (% working age population), Derry~Londonderry wards
2001-2008 2008-2010 2010-2020 2001 2008 2010 2020 (pp (pp (pp change) change) change) Altnagelvin 17% 19% 19% 23% 1.8 0.2 3.9 Ballynashallog 33% 36% 36% 38% 2.8 0.0 2.4 Banagher 11% 13% 13% 16% 1.8 0.1 2.9 Beechwood 14% 16% 16% 21% 2.3 0.5 4.5 Brandywell 8% 10% 10% 13% 1.4 0.3 3.5 Carn Hill 9% 10% 10% 11% 0.8 0.2 1.3 Caw 15% 16% 16% 19% 1.8 -0.1 2.8 Claudy 15% 16% 16% 20% 1.3 0.3 4.0 Clondermot 17% 19% 19% 22% 2.1 -0.1 3.1 Creggan Central 6% 6% 7% 9% 0.6 0.2 1.9 Creggan South 4% 6% 6% 9% 1.4 0.2 2.5 Crevagh 12% 12% 11% 11% -0.2 -0.6 0.1 Culmore 20% 19% 19% 20% -0.1 -0.5 1.0 Ebrington 13% 13% 13% 14% 0.4 -0.1 0.9 Eglinton 21% 20% 20% 20% -0.5 -0.4 0.5 Enagh 15% 15% 14% 13% -0.6 -0.6 -0.7 Foyle Springs 21% 23% 23% 28% 2.4 0.1 4.7 Holly Mount 15% 14% 13% 13% -0.9 -0.7 -0.2 Kilfennan 19% 21% 21% 26% 1.8 0.6 4.7 Lisnagelvin 14% 17% 18% 25% 3.0 1.0 6.1 New Buildings 17% 19% 18% 21% 1.2 -0.5 2.7 Pennyburn 24% 26% 26% 29% 1.4 0.2 2.7 Rosemount 21% 23% 23% 27% 1.5 0.2 3.8 Shantallow East 9% 10% 9% 11% 0.6 -0.2 1.4 Shantallow West 13% 14% 14% 15% 1.2 -0.2 1.7 Springtown 16% 18% 18% 20% 1.6 -0.1 2.8 Strand 23% 25% 25% 29% 1.9 -0.1 4.0 The Diamond 12% 13% 13% 15% 1.2 0.3 2.3 Victoria 13% 14% 13% 15% 1.2 -0.6 1.7 Westland 13% 14% 14% 16% 1.1 -0.2 2.4 Derry 16% 17% 17% 19% 1.0 -0.1 1.8
Source: Census Office for NI, Citi-Scope Model (Oxford Economics)
Part 1: Baseline 103
Aggregate measures of inequality, trends and baseline forecast
Whilst the Derry~Londonderry economy has enjoyed employment growth over the last decade during the „golden era‟ for the NI and ROI economies, our analysis suggests that the underlying disparities across wards have remained relatively unchanged.
Fig 4.17 presents the standard deviation of ward resident employment rates for selected years (in other words a measurement of the variation across wards, similar in principle to the Gini income coefficient). Over the period 2001 to 2008, the Citi-Scope model estimates that the level of disparity in ward employment rates has remained broadly unchanged. Furthermore, we estimate the extent of the variation will persist over the forecast period, and in fact rise slightly.
To put it another way, Fig 4.18 shows the average working age resident employment rate in the top 5 and bottom 5 wards in Derry~Londonderry, and the associated gap between the two. Although improvements in resident employment rates have been registered across the top and bottom 5 groupings of wards, the scale of the gap is forecast to remain large at around 30-31%.
Fig 4.17: Working age resident employment Fig 4.18: Top 5 and bottom 5 average working rate standard deviation, Derry~Londonderry age resident employment rate, wards Derry~Londonderry wards
Derry: Ward resident employment rate standard Derry: Ward top 5 and bottom 5 resident employment 0.200 deviation % working age rate pop 100% Top 5 Bottom 5 Gap 0.160
80% 74% 73% 71% 69% 0.120 0.12 0.11 0.11 0.11 60%
43% 41% 43% 0.080 39% 40% 30% 30% 30% 31%
0.040 20%
0.000 0% 2001 2008 2010 2030 2001 2008 2010 2030 Source: Citi-Scope Model (Oxford Economics) Source: Census Office for NI, Citi-Scope Model (Oxford Economics) Similar analysis was undertaken for the variation in working age qualification levels. Figs 4.19 and 4.20 report a similar lack of change in disparities and in fact, the forecasts such a slight rise in inequality in terms of the share of resident working age graduates.
Part 1: Baseline 104
Fig 4.20: Top 5 and bottom 5 Fig 4.19: Working age resident average working age resident graduate qualifications standard graduate qualifications, deviation, Derry~Londonderry wards Derry~Londonderry wards Derry: Ward resident graduate qualifications standard Derry: Ward top 5 and bottom 5 resident employment 0.150 deviation % working age rate pop 40% Top 5 Bottom 5 Gap
0.120 34%
30% 26% 0.090 24% 0.08 22%
0.06 20% 19% 0.06 18% 0.060
11% 10% 8% 0.030 7%
0.000 0% 2001 2008 2030 2001 2008 2030 Source: Citi-Scope Model (Oxford Economics) Source: Census Office for NI, Citi-Scope Model (Oxford Economics)
Benchmarking Derry~Londonderry‟s inequality
Analysis thus far has concentrated on inequalities within Derry~Londonderry. However as said earlier, inequalities are inevitable in a market-led economy such as the UK and ROI. It is useful therefore to benchmark the city‟s inequality with other council areas in NI using the same standard deviation approach. We have done this below in Figs 4.21-4.24 for the following ward indicators – employment rate, qualifications, education attainment and school leaver destinations.
The key messages are:
1. Derry~Londonderry has the second highest level of inequality for ward employment rates, behind only Belfast;
2. The city also has above average inequality for ward working qualifications (share of graduates);
3. But below average inequality for education attainment (school leavers achieving at least 5+ GCSEs with grades A*-C) and school leavers entering higher education.
Part 1: Baseline 105
Fig 4.21: Ward working age resident Fig 4.22: Ward working age resident graduate employment rate standard deviation, NI Local qualifications standard deviation, NI Local Government Districts (2001) Government Districts (2001)
NI councils: Ward resident employment rate standard NI councils: Ward resident graduate qualifications deviation standard deviation Belfast Belfast Derry Castlereagh Lisburn North Down Newtownabbey Lisburn Carrickfergus Coleraine Coleraine Carrickfergus Craigavon Newtownabb Larne Ballymena Armagh Derry Limavady Antrim Strabane Larne Ballymena Ards Dungannon Craigavon Castlereagh Down Newry & Newry & Down Moyle Fermanagh Banbridge North Down Dungannon Ards Armagh Moyle Omagh Banbridge Strabane Antrim Ballymoney Cookstown Greater disparity within Fermanagh Greater disparity within Omagh councils Magherafelt councils Magherafelt Limavady Ballymoney Cookstown 0.000 0.030 0.060 0.090 0.120 0.150 0.000 0.030 0.060 0.090 0.120 0.150 Source: Census Office for NI, Citi-Scope Model (Oxford Economics) Source: Census Office for NI, Citi-Scope Model (Oxford Economics)
Fig 4.24: Ward school leaver destination standard deviation – entering higher Fig 4.23: Ward education attainment education, NI Local Government Districts standard deviation – 5+ A*-C GCSEs, NI Local (2007/08) Government Districts (2007/08) NI councils: Ward school leavers destination higher NI councils: Ward school leavers with 5+ A*-C GCSEs education standard deviation Moyle standard deviation Belfast Ballymena Castlereagh Castlereagh North Down Moyle Antrim Coleraine Ballymena Belfast Omagh Carrickfergus Carrickfergus Limavady Lisburn Antrim Coleraine Newtownabbey Craigavon Craigavon Newtownabbey Dungannon Ards North Down Ballymoney Lisburn Armagh Ards Dungannon Larne Larne Omagh Banbridge Down Newry & Derry Cookstown Fermanagh Derry Cookstown Down Banbridge Limavady Greater disparity within Ballymoney Fermanagh councils Magherafelt Greater disparity within Magherafelt Newry & Mourne councils Strabane Strabane Armagh 0.00 0.05 0.10 0.15 0.20 0.25 0.30 Source: DE School Leaver Survey, Citi-Scope Model (Oxford Economics) 0.00 0.05 0.10 0.15 0.20 0.25 0.30 Source: DE School Leaver Survey, Citi-Scope Model (Oxford Economics) labour market outcomes and education outturns (so yes inequality, on this evidence, is an important issue) but relatively low for education inputs / attainment. This reaffirms one of the key challenges highlighted earlier that one of the Derry~Londonderry‟s problems is retaining its highest achieving young persons (or at least attracting them back).
Part 1: Baseline 106
Of course one of the challenges for reducing inequality for indicators such as employment rates and qualifications is that as personal circumstances of individuals improve, they may well seek to move out of lagging areas. This would result in a cycle of the low performing wards being permanently left with low employment rates. This is one of the most challenging areas of the ward module of Citi-Scope, particularly when considering the impact of interventions and thinking about how to best to reduce inequalities.
Convergence or divergence in ward inequality under the baseline scenario?
The final section of this chapter looks briefly, in terms of employment rates and highest qualifications, at whether convergence or divergence in ward economic outcomes is predicted under the baseline scenario.
Table 4.7 shows how the improvement in labour market outcomes between 2001 and 2008 (a decline in the number of wards with employment rates less than 50%) is expected to experience a set back in the recession. Despite the recovery phase and return to long-term growth, the number of wards with employment rates below 50% is expected to be 6 in 2030, one higher than in 2008. Against this relatively gloomy outlook, it should be highlighted that the number of wards with employment rates above 70% in 2030 is expected to rise and be at its highest ever level.
Table 4.7: Resident employment rates, Derry~Londonderry wards
2001 RER 2008 RER 2010 RER 2030 RER
> 70% Kilfennan 74% Kilfennan 76% Kilfennan 75% Kilfennan 77% Ballynashallog 75% Ballynashallog 74% Ballynashallog 75% Ebrington 73% Ebrington 70% New Buildings 74% Eglinton 71% Lisnagelvin 72% New Buildings 70% Ebrington 72% Caw 71% Foyle Springs 70% Pennyburn 70%
< 50% Westland 48% Shantallow East 49% Shantallow East 47% Shantallow West 49% Shantallow West 47% Crevagh 49% The Diamond 47% Culmore 48% Carn Hill 46% Creggan South 42% Strand 46% Strand 48% Strand 46% Brandywell 40% Crevagh 45% Creggan South 46% Shantallow East 44% Creggan Central 35% Brandywell 40% Enagh 44% The Diamond 43% Creggan South 40% Creggan Central 38% Creggan South 37% Creggan Central 35% Crevagh 38% Creggan Central 35% Brandywell 34%
Source: Census Office for NI, Citi-Scope Model (Oxford Economics) Note: RER = resident employment rate
Part 1: Baseline 107
The picture for resident skills, in terms of graduate shares, is slightly different, with improvement predicted across the board (Table 4.8). The number of wards with graduate shares above 25% is predicted to rise significantly by 2030, whilst at the same time the number of wards with graduate shares below 15% is predicted to roughly halve. However still by 2030, 7 wards are expected to have less than 1 in 7 working age residents with graduate qualifications.
While overall the skills outlook appears positive, what is more important is the extent to which the future skills supply matches what the economy needs and that persons with the required qualifications are willing to work at the prevailing wage levels offered and travel to where the jobs are located.
With the economy becoming increasingly „skills hungry‟, especially in a post-debt and export-led era, a moderate improvement in the skills offering is no guarantee that future skill needs can be fully met or in relative terms, that Derry‟s skills offering is superior to competing locations.
Table 4.8: Resident graduate qualifications % working age population. Derry~Londonderry wards
2001 % 2008 % 2030 %
> 25% Ballynashallog 33% Ballynashallog 36% Ballynashallog 40% Pennyburn 26% Foyle Springs 33% Strand 25% Strand 33% Pennyburn 31% Rosemount 31% Lisnagelvin 31% Kilfennan 31% Altnagelvin 28% Beechwood 26% Clondermot 25% Claudy 25% < 15% Lisnagelvin 14% Holly Mount 14% Carn Hill 13% Beechwood 14% Shantallow West 14% Holly Mount 13% Shantallow West 13% Victoria 14% Enagh 13% Ebrington 13% Westland 14% Shantallow East 13% Victoria 13% Ebrington 13% Crevagh 11% Westland 13% Banagher 13% Creggan South 11% Crevagh 12% The Diamond 13% Creggan Central 11% The Diamond 12% Crevagh 12% Banagher 11% Carn Hill 10% Carn Hill 9% Shantallow East 10% Shantallow East 9% Brandywell 10% Brandywell 8% Creggan Central 6% Creggan Central 6% Creggan South 6% Creggan South 4%
Source: Census Office for NI, Citi-Scope Model (Oxford Economics)
Part 1: Baseline 108
An urban comparison
This section provides comparative analysis of Derry~Londonderry‟s performance in the context of other UK city / urban economies.
Benchmarking of urban indicators
In comparing Derry~Londonderry to other urban areas, we have avoided using absolute levels, to remove the „size‟ or „scale‟ effect of larger and smaller cities. Instead, this section provides a comparable analysis using proportions and rates which allow us to benchmark the performance of the local economy. In undertaking this analysis we benchmark Derry~Londonderry performance against 85 urban areas throughout the UK. A detailed list is included in Annex B. It is fair to conclude that only a subset of these 85 areas make effective comparators but all are included for completeness.
Labour market
As discussed in the previous sections, the labour market in the local economy suffers from lower employment rates and higher rates of inactivity. Within NI, the Derry~Londonderry economy had the third lowest employment rate in 2008, at just under 60%. Table 5.1 provides an urban comparison of employment rates across the UK. In 2008 Derry~Londonderry had the lowest working age employment rate of all UK urban areas.
Table 5.1: Working age employment rate (2008)
Working age employment rate Rank (out (%) of 86) Bracknell Forest 85.3 1 South Gloucestershire 84.1 2 North Somerset 82.2 3 Milton Keynes 79.9 4 Swindon 79.9 4 Kingston upon Hull, City of 62.3 82 Birmingham 61.5 83 Liverpool 60.5 84 Manchester 60.1 85 Derry 59.4 86 Source: NOMIS, DETI LADB
Part 1: Baseline 109
A significant improvement in the resident employment rate represents a significant challenge for Derry~Londonderry. From a demand perspective, the structure of the economy and the inevitable tighter public expenditure climate are likely to limit the speed of employment growth. From a supply perspective, Derry~Londonderry has a large proportion of its working age population inactive and with no formal qualifications.
Not surprisingly Derry~Londonderry has one of the highest claimant unemployment rates in our urban league table (Table 5.2). At 6.9%, the local economy would have to reduce unemployment by nearly two percentage points to reach mid table. Even halving the current rate of claimant unemployment would still leave Derry~Londonderry outside the top ten urban locations.
Table 5.2: Working age claimant unemployment rate (December 2009)
Unemployment rate (%) Rank (out of 86) Wokingham 1.7 1 Bath and North East Somerset 2.0 2 South Gloucestershire 2.1 3 Aberdeen City 2.3 4 Windsor and Maidenhead 2.4 5 Knowsley 6.6 74 Leicester 6.6 74 Derry 6.9 76 North East Lincolnshire 7.0 77 South Tyneside 7.1 78 Source: NOMIS
Relative performance in relation to long-term unemployment presents an even greater challenge. Only five of the urban comparators have a greater proportion of residents recorded as long-term unemployed. Halving the proportion of long-term unemployment would only move the local economy to mid table.
Part 1: Baseline 110
Table 5.3: Working age long-term unemployment rate (December 2009)
Long-term unemployment Rank (out (%) of 86) Wokingham 0.2 1 South Gloucestershire 0.2 1 North Somerset 0.2 1 Bath and North East Somerset 0.2 1 Bracknell Forest 0.2 1 Wolverhampton 1.2 79 Nottingham 1.2 79 Derry~Londonderry 1.3 81 Kingston upon Hull, City of 1.4 82 Redcar and Cleveland 1.4 82 Source: NOMIS
Derry performs better in relation to youth unemployment (Table 5.4). However future improvements in this area will be particularly difficult. The current recession has had significant impacts on those aged under 24, with the bulk of new unemployment claimants from this age group. The legacy of the recession may well mean that those unemployed will find it increasingly difficult to enter employment, making the relative long-term unemployment position more difficult to address. Though in saying this, many urban areas will face the same challenge as Derry~Londonderry.
Table 5.4: Youth unemployment (December 2009)
Youth unemployment (% of total Rank (out unemployment) of 86) Wokingham 21% 1 Windsor and Maidenhead 23% 2 Milton Keynes 24% 3 Bracknell Forest 24% 4 Slough 24% 5 Stockport 31% 47 Wirral 31% 48 Derry 31% 49 Armagh 31% 50 St. Helens 31% 51 Source: NOMIS
Part 1: Baseline 111
Economic structure
The importance of the financial & business services sector, and in particular tradable services, for future growth in urban areas was discussed in Section 3. Our comparative analysis shows that although Derry~Londonderry enjoyed significant growth in the sector over the last decade, it has a relatively small proportion of its jobs in this wealth generating sector. By contrast Belfast ranked 27th, despite the large size of its public sector. In fact Derry~Londonderry would need to create an additional 2,350 jobs (40% increase on the current level) in this sector to secure a mid table ranking.
Table 5.5: Financial & business services employment concentration (2008)
Percent employed in finance and business Rank (out (2008) of 86) Bracknell Forest 37% 1 Wokingham 37% 2 Reading 34% 3 Bristol, City of 33% 4 Edinburgh, City of 32% 5 St. Helens 14% 69 Barnsley 14% 70 Derry~Londonderry 14% 71 Kirklees 14% 72 Oldham 13% 73 Source: ABI, DETI Census of Employment, LFS Note: NI Local Government Districts estimated for 2008
As highlighted in Section 3, Derry~Londonderry is arguably over-reliant on the public sector for employment. Table 5.6 shows that it ranks just outside the top 10 urban areas for the concentration of employment in public administration. Belfast ranks top of this list and Cardiff also ranks highly, reflecting how capital cities typically have a strong public administration role.
Again, this has implications for the prosperity of the local economy given the health of public finances across the UK. The challenge for the Regeneration Strategy is to grow employment in the private sector (with particular focus on tradable services) so Derry~Londonderry‟s dependence on the public sector is reduced (unless of course public sector jobs can be attracted through relocation).
Part 1: Baseline 112
Table 5.6: Public administration employment concentration (2008)
Percent employed in Rank (out public administration of 86) (2008) Belfast 13% 1 Newcastle upon Tyne 12% 2 Sefton 12% 3 Swansea 12% 4 Blackpool 11% 5 Middlesbrough 9% 10 Cardiff 9% 11 Derry~Londonderry 8% 12 Sunderland 8% 13 Birmingham 8% 14 Source: ABI, DETI Census of Employment, LFS Note: NI Local Government Districts estimated for 2008
Residents skills
An analysis of the stock of skills across our urban areas highlights the weakness of Derry~Londonderry skill offering. It placed 57th in terms of the percent of the working age population qualified to NVQ level 4 (Table 5.7 – this is consistent with skills analysis in chapter 3). By contrast Belfast ranked 13th, Lisburn 33rd, and Armagh 67th. To put this context, for Derry~Londonderry to achieve a mid table ranking, the number of those qualified to NVQ level 4 would need to grow by more than 8% (equivalent to 1,200 people).
Table 5.7: Resident working age qualified to NVQ 4+ (2008)
% of working age population qualified to NVQ Rank (out 4+ of 86) Edinburgh, City of 45.1 1 Wokingham 44.1 2 Aberdeen City 41.2 3 Brighton and Hove 40.3 4 Windsor and Maidenhead 39.0 5 South Tyneside 22.0 55 Liverpool 21.9 56 Derry~Londonerry 21.7 57 Bolton 21.5 58 Leicester 21.4 59
Part 1: Baseline 113
Source: NOMIS, DETI LADB Note: NVQ 4 is equivalent to degree / HND / HNC qualifications. Excludes commuters (which has a significant impact in many locations)
However a key concern for Derry~Londonderry is the percent of the working age resident population with no qualifications. In our league table, the local economy ranks second from bottom with 26.1% of the working age population with no qualifications. This compares to less than 10% with no qualifications in the top 16 urban locations. Achieving a stepped improvement in this area will be a significant challenge. For Derry~Londonderry to achieve even a mid table ranking, the proportion of the working age with no qualifications would have to fall to 14.1%, which would effectively require nearly halving those with no formal qualifications.
Table 5.8: Resident working age with no qualifications (2008)
% of working age population with no Rank (out qualifications of 86) North Somerset 5.2 1 Bracknell Forest 6.0 2 Wokingham 6.2 3 Edinburgh, City of 6.4 4 South Gloucestershire 6.4 4 Leicester 22.3 82 Stoke-on-Trent 23.3 83 Knowsley 23.7 84 Derry~Londonderry 26.1 85 Wolverhampton 28.2 86 Source: NOMIS, DETI LADB
Wages
Given the relatively low stock of skills in the local economy, it is not surprising that Derry~Londonderry ranks 81st on the urban league table for resident weekly wages. Shifting the local economy to mid table in the rankings would require an uplift in weekly wages to that of Belfast (equivalent to an increase of £46 per week).
Part 1: Baseline 114
Table 5.9: Resident median gross full-time weekly wages (2008)
Median gross average Full-time weekly wage - Rank (out resident (£) of 86) Windsor and Maidenhead 674.6 1 Wokingham 630.7 2 Bracknell Forest 567.3 3 Reading 559.8 4 Trafford 536.6 5 Kingston upon Hull, City of 407.7 79 Walsall 406.4 80 Derry~Londonderry 406.2 81 Stoke-on-Trent 402.4 82 Sunderland 398.6 83 Source: ASHE
An analysis of workplace weekly wages however shows Derry~Londonderry to be mid table with a rank of 41st. This highlights that most of the well paid jobs in the city (a majority of which are in the public sector) are taken by workers who reside elsewhere and commute to work in Derry~Londonderry.
Table 5.10: Workplace median gross full-time weekly wages (2008)
Median gross average Full-time weekly wage Rank (out - workplace (£) of 86) Bracknell Forest 667.2 1 Wokingham 627.1 2 Windsor and Maidenhead 619.7 3 Slough 584.3 4 Derby 574.9 5 Belfast 465.1 39 Knowsley 464.9 40 Derry~Londonderry 464.5 41 Poole 463.6 42 Salford 461.7 43 Source: ASHE
Part 1: Baseline 115
Benefit dependency
As noted previously, inactivity in Derry~Londonderry is a major barrier for economic growth, and drain on public finances. In February 2009 Derry~Londonderry had the largest annual sickness benefit payments per capita as measured by incapacity and severe disablement benefits (Table 5.11).
Table 5.11: Incapacity benefit / severe disablement benefit payments per capita (February 2009)
Annual sickness benefits per Rank (out capita of 86) Wokingham £45 1 Windsor and Maidenhead £50 2 Bracknell Forest £58 3 Reading £76 4 Bath and North East Somerset £76 5 Belfast £219 82 Hartlepool £221 83 Stoke-on-Trent £232 84 Barnsley £235 85 Derry~Londonderry £240 86 Source: NOMIS and DSD
To put the scale of the challenge into context, nearly one in every five working age residents in some of Derry~Londonderry‟s wards receive Disability Living Allowance (DLA). However, when we include the unemployed, long-term sick, looking after the family / home and other inactive groups, the scale of the challenge becomes clear. Four of Derry~Londonderry‟s wards have over half their working age population in non-employment (see Figure 4.1 and 4.2).
Carbon footprint
A comparison of CO2 emissions across our urban areas shows that Derry~Londonderry has one of the highest CO2 emission rates per capita. Although as shown in Fig 5.1, a chart repeated from earlier, almost half of NI councils have a higher per capita CO2 emission rate compared to the UK average.
To achieve a mid table ranking, the local economy would need to cut emission by 3.1 tonnes of CO2 per capita, the equivalent of a 31% reduction.
Part 1: Baseline 116
Table 5.12: Total carbon emissions per capita (2007)
Per capita carbon emissions (tonnes CO2) Rank (out of 82) South Tyneside 5.0 1 Torbay 5.0 2 Medway 5.2 3 Brighton and Hove 5.3 4 Luton 5.3 5 Trafford 9.5 72 Hartlepool 9.8 73 Derry~Londonderry 10.1 74 Warrington 10.3 75 South Gloucestershire 10.4 76 Source: DECC Note: Sum of industry & commercial, energy, domestic household, road transport and LULUCF emissions
Fig 5.1: Total CO2 emissions per capita, NI Local Government Districts (average 2005-2007)
Total CO2 emissions per capita (UK=100) Castlereagh Carrickfergus North Dow n Ards New tow nabb Belfast Craigavon Dow n Coleraine Limavady Ballymoney Strabane New ry and Lisburn UK Banbridge Moyle NI Magherafelt Derry Omagh Larne Armagh Ballymena Dungannon Antrim Fermanagh Cookstow n
0 50 100 150 200 250 Source: DECC, Oxford Economics
Source: DECC, NISRA, Citi-Scope Model (Oxford Economics)
Part 1: Baseline 117
Commuting
Derry~Londonderry had a relatively low percent of its workplace employment taken up by in- commuting in 2001, 18% compared to Manchester‟s 64%. This is not necessarily a bad thing for the local economy. It suggests that any employment creation within the city is likely to be taken up by residents. However it also suggests that there is scope for Derry~Londonderry to increase its position as the economic hub of the North West.
Table 5.13: In-commuting share of workplace employment (2001)
In commuting % workplace Rank (out employment of 82) Manchester 64% 1 Nottingham 57% 2 Knowsley 56% 3 Newcastle upon Tyne 56% 4 Belfast 55% 5 Edinburgh, City of 18% 80 Doncaster 18% 81 Derry~Londonderry 18% 82 Torbay 17% 83 Wirral 16% 84 Source: ONS and NISRA Census
The Regeneration Plan should aim to provide additional employment growth in the future, whilst ensuring that residents are appropriately skilled to benefit from this growth. However if it is to close the gap with Belfast or to out perform the NI average, the City, like others will inevitably need to be characterised as being more open and attractive to in-commuters.
Part 1: Baseline 118
The challenge
This section discusses the challenge of achieving Ilex‟s aspirations of an “economically sustainable city making a net economic contribution to the local economy (NI) and to the Island”. Given the baseline scenario presented in Section 3 and the fragile macro environment (Section 2), this section provides some suggestions regarding desirable targets for the city. It concentrates on economic based variables, however the new Regeneration Strategy for Derry~Londonderry will include aims and objectives beyond the scope of quantification of the Citi-scope Model. For example some social benefits such as more integrated communities and a greater sense of community and civic pride, resident satisfaction and changes in Governance etc.
The need for an „alternate future‟
The baseline outlook for the Derry~Londonderry economy suggests a challenging future, with employment levels slowly struggling back to 2008 levels. Although growth is forecast to outstrip the NI average as the strengths of an urban economy come to the fore. However the forecasts do not suggest a significant change in economic fortunes and many of the current problems of low employment rates and below potential performance are not projected to change
As an urban centre, Derry~Londonderry currently languishes towards the foot of most of the comparative UK urban metric tables (chapter 5), and again only modest change is projected. As such there is a clear need for an „alternate future‟ where the economy can be supported to grow more rapidly and some of the long-term economic challenges can be tackled. The Regeneration Plan is designed to be the cornerstone of this „alternate future‟ bringing real change and improved conditions for the Derry~Londonderry economy.
Having explored the baseline in detail and benchmarked the Derry~Londonderry labour market, the key question is – what should the quantified aim / vision be for the Derry~Londonderry economy?
This is not the only metric against which a plan should be measured – this focuses on the economic indicators and does not consider the range of social, political, environmental, cultural, health and equality factors which should also be key to achieving an „alternate future‟. The discussion bellow sets out some broad economic metrics that might be considered indicative of a suitable challenge which would deliver a real change and see Derry~Londonderry move towards a mid table ranking against urban comparators. This is drawn from the baseline analysis and represents the considered view of the Oxford Economics team. Alternative challenges and empirical aims could be considered and measured within the Citi-Scope Model.
Part 1: Baseline 119
Each metric is considered separately at present. Intuitively, each is interconnected, and improvement to employment levels, will improve the employment rate, the fiscal balance and undoubtedly unemployment rates etc. The fully working Citi-Scope Model will be capable of considering the wider implications of achieving individual targets.
An issue of scale
The first consideration in setting out a vision or challenge is the size of economy aspired to? Most economic strategies seek to increase people and jobs as part of the overall economic growth and attractiveness. This is not however a given – some areas would seek to maintain current size and improve the economic conditions of the existing population – avoiding problems of congestion and reducing the need for major construction of housing, transport etc.
There is no right or wrong in this – it is a question for Derry~Londonderry – is the vision one of growth and expansion in size or improvement within the steady expansion already forecast to occur? If the city was to increase in size, a plausible population aim might be 121,000 by 2020 (as opposed to the 116,000 in the baseline). This would make Derry~Londonderry 42% the size of Belfast, a similar „second‟ city scale to other regions.
Growth and productivity – a target?
With government targets so frequently set out in terms of GDP / GVA growth and or productivity, should this not form a cornerstone of an economic vision for Derry~Londonderry? Though it is possible to produce estimates of GDP growth and consequently productivity, the lack of reliable data make this arguably inappropriate as a mechanism for local targeting. Even if there was a target, it needs to be remembered that GVA can increase in ways that do little to improve the overall economic conditions for residents in an area (for example one major multinational firm located in Derry~Londonderry could generate enough profits to raise GVA / productivity to the target level (recall GVA is essentially the sum of wages and profits) but yet employ a very small number of residents. A good example may be a nuclear power station in this regard.
As such GVA and productivity is not, in Oxford Economics view, suitable for inclusion as a headline quantified aim for the Regeneration Plan. However given productivity is government‟s first PSA, similarly we do not feel it should be ignored.
Part 1: Baseline 120
Jobs – the key to change
Employment growth is an obvious aspiration for the local economy. Currently the employment rate is low and this is one key indicator that reflects both wider economic and individual success. At present, an additional 9,000 resident jobs would raise the employment rate to 72.5% and move Derry~Londonderry to the middle of the UK urban league table (Table 6.1). This is an achievable and challenging aim at the same time.
As we have already shown, if Derry~Londonderry were to achieve the regional average employment rates for each level of skills (using the 2001 Census data) we would expect an additional 5,400 employed, the equivalent of 16% growth. Applying this level of growth to the 2009 employment level, we would expect this to result in over 7,600 additional people employed. The remaining 1,400 jobs would therefore bring the Derry~Londonderry economy above the regional average.
To put this level of employment in context, employment in Derry~Londonderry in 2009 (47,830) is only 23% the size of Belfast. It would take an additional 13,300 jobs to bring Derry~Londonderry up to 30% the size of Belfast.
However as shown in Section 3, we expect Derry~Londonderry‟s population to rise, and with it the working age population. This future growth means that the actual number of jobs required to move Derry~Londonderry up to mid-table ranking would need to rise (assuming all other urban areas were to remain static). As Table 6.1 shows, an additional 13,700 jobs would then need to be created by 2020 given the growth in working age population.
Table 6.1: Possible employment targets
To reach mid table given To reach mid 2020 level of working age 2008 table population Employment rate (%) 59.4 72.5 72.5 Employment level (000s) 41.0 50.0 54.7 Change from 2008 (000s) 9.0 13.7
This challenge does not of course suggest how the jobs would be created, in what sectors and where within the city – it merely sets the scale of the change that would make a measurable lasting difference to the people of Derry~Londonderry.
Part 1: Baseline 121
Furthermore, there is scope for Derry~Londonderry to accommodate more jobs (whether taken by in- commuters or residents). Table 6.2 below shows that Derry has the second lowest job density of urban areas. Intuitively there are issues around where urban boundaries are located, and indeed much of Derry~Londonderry hinterland is rural. However it is worth noting that even doubling the number employed would only move Derry~Londonderry up one place on the urban league table. This suggests 10,000 extra jobs is entirely plausible.
Table 6.2: Jobs per hectare (2008)
Rank (out of Urban area Job per hectare 86) Portsmouth 23.9 1 Southampton 23.6 2 Bristol, City of 19.0 3 Luton 18.5 4 Reading 18.3 5 Peterborough 2.2 82 Doncaster 2.2 83 Lisburn 1.2 84 Derry~Londonderry 1.1 85 Armagh 0.4 86 Source: ONS and NISRA Census, ABI, LFS, DETI Census of Employment, Oxford Economics
Unemployment and benefits – consistent with jobs
In working towards an improved employment rate, it is worth noting that if Derry~Londonderry were to reduce claimant unemployment by 1,300 it would place Derry~Londonderry mid table in the city rankings (as of December 2009). In addition, if current income support levels fell by around 4,000, it would move Derry~Londonderry to the Northern Ireland average. Both of these potential improvements would be feasible and indeed likely assuming the local economy achieves the employment growth discussed in the sub-section above.
Skills
Derry~Londonderry would have to half the proportion of the working age population with no formal qualifications (10,000 people) to achieve a mid table urban ranking. It would also have to raise the proportion of the working age population qualified to NVQ level 4 from 21.1% to 28.7% (5,350 people) to match that of Belfast. To put that in context only Ballynashallog has over 28.7% of its working age population currently qualified to NVQ Level 4 (34%).
Part 1: Baseline 122
Environment
CO2 emissions per capita in Derry~Londonderry are amongst the highest across urban areas in the UK, though we also showed that NI as a whole has an above emission rate. If the Regeneration Plan aims to bring the city more in line with mid-table urban areas, it must consider issues such as:
. How this conflicts with rising employment levels and encouragement of more flexible commuting patterns;
. How the local economy will be become a more attractive destination to commute to for work and leisure; and
. If the transport system can adequately support reductions in emissions (perhaps through increased public transport).
The baseline forecast is for a reduction in emission levels but this is unlikely to move the city up the urban table as similar improvements are expected across the board.
Equality
Although equality can not be comprehensively considered by the Citi-Scope model (either because insufficient data exist to model the specific inequality indicators or because there is no reliable way of forecasting the change in the indicators), the model does not makes some estimates of labour market outcomes and their spatial distribution across wards within Derry~Londonderry that are a useful equality indicator.
For example if, as a minimum, one aim of the Regeneration Plan was for no ward to have a working age resident employment rate below 50% by 2030 (if say the Regeneration Plan has a 20-year timeframe), this would provide a significant challenge and represent real change if achieved. This is because under the baseline scenario, 6 wards are predicted to have employment rates below 50% in 2030, one more than in 2008 and only three less than in the 2001 Census year out of a total of 30 wards. In terms of quantifying this challenge, raising employment rates in these six wards up to 50% by 2030 would require getting 2,000 more persons into employment. If the target was a minimum 60% employment rate across all wards, the target would be 11,100 jobs.
However it is important to note, as we said previously, that often as people‟s economic conditions improve, they may move out of less successful economic areas. Therefore it can be hard to raise employment rates in less successful areas if those persons who policy may be benefiting move out. In this case a target in numbers not percent may be more appropriate.
Part 1: Baseline 123
At present there are currently 5 wards with employment rates estimated to be less than 50%. Creggan Central (35%) and Brandywell (40%) have particularly low employment rates.
Summarising the challenge
The Derry~Londonderry economy consistently under-performs when measured against other urban areas throughout the UK, while the baseline forecasts suggest it will struggle to make any significant improvements over the medium term.
Therefore the forthcoming regeneration plan should adopt an aspirational, yet achievable set of quantified aims to measure real change. With an aim to move the local economy to the middle of the urban league table, a range of targets could be considered. Whilst these are not meant to be binding, they are presented to reflect the views of Oxford Economics having carried out the construction of the Citi-Scope baseline model. These changes would make a demonstrable measurable difference to Derry and transform its relative standing economically. The estimates are done in light of the „natural‟ rate of growth in Derry~Londonderry – in other words the increase in scale that might be an aspiration has not been considered when looking at the other employment rate, skills and environmental quantified aims.
The scale of this challenge is considerable, yet it is one the Derry~Londonderry economy must aspire to if it is to achieve the overall vision of becoming a vibrant and economically sustainable city.
Part 1: Baseline 124
Summary – business as usual is not acceptable
Baseline forecasts suggest the need for change
The economy in Derry~Londonderry, though making progress, continues to face extreme challenges of worklessness, lower levels of skills, equality, public sector dependency, constrained wealth levels and city centre vibrancy.
The current recession, as well as having major implications for Derry~Londonderry, has focused minds on the scale of the challenge. To date the private sector has not been able to create sufficient activity to drive the economy and to address the underlying weaknesses. This is likely to be both a problem of demand and supply issues. For example the availability of suitable labour and relatively connectivity will be as important and interconnected with issues of demand from the labour market.
The baseline forecasts suggest that although Derry~Londonderry‟s labour market is forecast to grow above the regional average, as urban strengths come to the fore, this will be insufficient to redress the relative performance deficit. Thus the challenge will continue to be prevalent over the medium term.
In addition, public funding is coming under extreme pressure and the ability to support major Regeneration schemes and ideas is becoming limited – or at least the need to prove the long term benefits of an initiative have grown. The important decisions that will be made in coming years will define a generation – Derry~Londonderry will hope that it can make ones that can move it towards the mid table of urban performance from its currently lowly position.
Building on strengths
Though the challenges are significant, the Derry~Londonderry economy has a number of strengths that it can build on. It has a relatively young population and a university campus within the city which if supported and promoted in the right way can provide a vital flow of skilled labour to local and international business in Derry~Londonderry. The City has a history of strong community engagement which could help towards delivering a partnership approach to regeneration. As an area, it boasts an attractive riverside location with desirable hinterland and rural living options. There is also a strong cultural heritage and artistic offering that can be promoted to visitors and potential investors, and major development sites and opportunities such as the Ebrington site and UK City of Culture bid.
With this set of endowments the potential exists to make the transformational change the Regeneration Plan aspires to help deliver – many locations in contrast have a much weaker set of fundamentals upon which to move forward from.
Part 1: Baseline 125
Building on the baseline – using Citi-Scope to quantify the plan
There is an acceptance across all sectors (Government, private and voluntary) of the challenge ahead in delivering a more prosperous and inclusive city. It is significant and the range of initiatives will need to be creative, connected and courageous. The Citi-Scope model and the baseline produced within it help to establish the scale, extent and nature of the challenge. When the quantified initiatives are agreed and provided, the Citi-Scope Model will help to quantify the change that might be achieved through the plan. Not only will this help to ensure the plan achieves the economic step change aspired to, but also it will help make the case to the wide range of funders required to realise the vision in a time of reduced funding streams.
A truly inclusive plan that transforms Derry~Londonderry will have many aims and goals outside of those contained in Citi-Scope but the core element of economic vitality which will be necessary to ensure the long term sustainability of the other elements of the Plan can be quantified.
Citi-Scope has already clearly identified that doing nothing is not an option – Derry~Londonderry is not on course to achieve its economic potential or indeed contribute sufficiently to government‟s own economic targets. The model will also be used during the Regeneration Plan‟s evolution to assist its development in such a way that ensure Derry~Londonderry does reach its economic potential – something that would be desirable not only for Derry~Londonderry but for the NI economy as a whole
Part 1: Baseline - Annex A 126 Annex A: North West baseline forecast summary
Derry~Londonderry 1998-2008 2010-2030 1995 2001 2008 2010 2012 2020 2030 (annual avg (annual avg growth) growth)
Demography Total population 102,123 105,335 109,097 110,259 111,513 116,435 121,385 0.3% 0.5% Working age population 62,292 66,759 70,474 71,019 72,070 75,706 78,275 0.7% 0.5% Working age population % total 61% 63% 65% 64% 65% 65% 64% - -
Workplace employment (people-based) Agriculture, forestry & fishing 726 641 468 507 492 437 382 -5.3% -1.4% Manufacturing 9,110 7,038 4,681 3,849 3,745 3,243 2,576 -6.4% -2.0% Construction 2,266 2,653 2,848 2,267 2,340 2,828 3,333 4.0% 1.9% Retail & distribution and hotel & restaurants 5,821 6,978 8,577 8,218 8,002 8,640 8,940 3.0% 0.4% Transport & communications 1,165 1,435 1,370 1,370 1,391 1,484 1,520 0.5% 0.5% Financial & business services 2,088 3,608 6,320 5,850 6,094 7,992 9,222 9.7% 2.3% Public administration & defence * 3,232 3,442 3,726 3,713 3,507 3,125 2,935 1.3% -1.2% Education and health & social w ork 8,652 10,096 11,364 11,542 11,392 11,823 12,576 1.9% 0.4% Other personal services 1,344 1,418 1,881 1,763 1,761 1,831 1,885 3.9% 0.3% Total ** 38,102 40,063 43,608 41,537 41,174 43,828 45,761 1.1% 0.5%
Resident economic activity Resident employment rate (% w orking age) na 56% 59% 57% 55% 56% 56% - - Unemployment rate (ILO, % labour force) na 13% 8% 13% 14% 13% 12% - - Economic inactivity rate (% w orking age) na 38% 37% 37% 38% 38% 38% - -
Commuting Net commuting na 3,838 3,072 2,509 2,512 2,837 3,037 - -
Output (workplace-based) Real GVA (£m, 2003 prices) 1,150 1,328 1,508 1,451 1,501 1,844 2,226 1.6% 2.2% Real GVA annual grow th 4.0% 0.6% 1.1% 1.2% 2.1% 2.1% 1.9% - - Productivty (£000s, 2003 prices) *** 30 33 35 35 36 42 49 0.5% 1.7% Real GVA per capita (£000s, 2003 prices) 11 13 14 13 13 16 18 1.2% 1.7%
Source: Various and Citi-Scope Model (Oxford Economics)
Notes: * Figure is job-based ** Also includes government training schemes and cross-border out commuting (sectoral breakdow n not available) *** Real GVA divided by total w orkplace employment (people-based)
Part 1: Baseline - Annex A 127 Strabane
1998-2008 2010-2030 1995 2001 2008 2010 2012 2020 2030 (annual avg (annual avg growth) growth)
Demography Total population 36,489 38,273 39,614 39,956 40,270 41,403 42,214 0.6% 0.3% Working age population 22,153 23,784 24,820 24,962 25,243 26,110 26,402 0.8% 0.3% Working age population % total 61% 62% 63% 62% 63% 63% 63% - -
Workplace employment (people-based) Agriculture, forestry & fishing 1,618 1,432 1,138 1,273 1,264 1,223 1,179 -3.8% -0.4% Manufacturing 2,843 2,685 968 896 891 851 762 -10.7% -0.8% Construction 1,241 1,609 2,130 1,779 1,781 2,124 2,472 7.1% 1.7% Retail & distribution and hotel & restaurants 1,247 1,478 2,191 2,078 2,002 2,097 2,098 4.7% 0.0% Transport & communications 208 250 272 272 273 278 269 1.7% -0.1% Financial & business services 208 294 779 745 731 836 860 12.6% 0.7% Public administration & defence * 683 597 477 477 451 407 389 -3.0% -1.0% Education and health & social w ork 1,705 1,669 1,701 1,726 1,688 1,694 1,712 0.6% 0.0% Other personal services 249 241 320 304 306 329 353 3.6% 0.7% Total ** 10,731 10,734 10,438 10,021 9,857 10,297 10,535 -0.2% 0.3%
Resident economic activity Resident employment rate (% w orking age) na 58% 64% 62% 61% 61% 62% - - Unemployment rate (ILO, % labour force) na 11% 8% 12% 13% 12% 12% - - Economic inactivity rate (% w orking age) na 37% 33% 32% 33% 33% 32% - -
Commuting Net commuting na -2,607 -4,953 -4,971 -4,943 -5,087 -5,224 - -
Output (workplace-based) Real GVA (£m, 2003 prices) 280 329 303 294 299 345 389 0.0% 1.4% Real GVA annual grow th 8.0% 2.6% -0.7% 1.1% 1.5% 1.3% 1.1% - - Productivty (£000s, 2003 prices) *** 26 31 29 29 30 33 37 0.2% 1.2% Real GVA per capita (£000s, 2003 prices) 8 9 8 7 7 8 9 -0.5% 1.1%
Source: Various and Citi-Scope Model (Oxford Economics)
Notes: * Figure is job-based ** Also includes government training schemes and cross-border out commuting (sectoral breakdow n not available) *** Real GVA divided by total w orkplace employment (people-based)
Part 1: Baseline - Annex A 128 Limavady 1998-2008 2010-2030 1995 2001 2008 2010 2012 2020 2030 (annual avg (annual avg growth) growth)
Demography Total population 30,568 32,639 34,117 34,601 35,074 36,912 38,747 0.5% 0.6% Working age population 19,048 21,120 22,085 22,334 22,716 24,050 25,038 0.5% 0.6% Working age population % total 62% 65% 65% 65% 65% 65% 65% - -
Workplace employment (people-based) Agriculture, forestry & fishing 1,332 1,040 783 802 757 641 527 -5.1% -2.1% Manufacturing 1,771 1,931 1,720 1,570 1,542 1,403 1,189 -2.4% -1.4% Construction 1,043 1,533 2,075 1,636 1,642 1,940 2,250 5.7% 1.6% Retail & distribution and hotel & restaurants 1,674 2,126 2,690 2,535 2,591 2,829 2,981 3.3% 0.8% Transport & communications 85 161 163 163 165 175 176 1.3% 0.4% Financial & business services 242 345 820 758 754 896 978 11.7% 1.3% Public administration & defence * 1,154 1,082 1,045 1,039 979 873 820 0.1% -1.2% Education and health & social w ork 1,832 2,163 2,418 2,476 2,443 2,549 2,700 2.1% 0.4% Other personal services 203 363 292 276 273 272 266 1.8% -0.2% Total ** 11,085 12,208 12,616 11,981 11,864 12,279 12,576 0.4% 0.2%
Resident economic activity Resident employment rate (% w orking age) na 64% 53% 50% 48% 48% 48% - - Unemployment rate (ILO, % labour force) na 9% 8% 17% 17% 17% 17% - - Economic inactivity rate (% w orking age) na 33% 44% 42% 43% 44% 44% - -
Commuting Net commuting na -737 1,254 1,225 1,239 1,080 969 - -
Output (workplace-based) Real GVA (£m, 2003 prices) 267 309 334 317 324 368 414 0.7% 1.3% Real GVA annual grow th 4.1% -5.0% -2.5% 0.9% 1.5% 1.3% 1.1% - - Productivty (£000s, 2003 prices) *** 24 25 26 26 27 30 33 0.2% 1.1% Real GVA per capita (£000s, 2003 prices) 9 9 10 9 9 10 11 0.2% 0.8%
Source: Various and Citi-Scope Model (Oxford Economics)
Notes: * Figure is job-based ** Also includes government training schemes and cross-border out commuting (sectoral breakdow n not available) *** Real GVA divided by total w orkplace employment (people-based)
Part 1: Baseline - Annex A 129 Donegal 2002-2008 2010-2030 1995 2002 2008 2010 2012 2020 2030 (annual avg (annual avg
growth) growth)
Demography Total population 129,457 137,575 154,673 155,609 156,084 167,416 184,884 2.0% 0.9% Working age population 78,551 88,060 100,806 100,804 100,537 104,441 110,803 2.3% 0.5% Working age population % total 61% 64% 65% 65% 64% 62% 60% - -
Workplace employment (people-based)
Agriculture, forestry & fishing na 5,771 4,896 3,776 3,524 3,333 2,942 -2.7% -1.2% Manufacturing, mining & quarrying and utilities na 8,653 6,245 4,974 4,560 3,946 2,967 -5.3% -2.5% Construction na 4,334 6,112 3,276 3,087 3,870 4,626 5.9% 1.7% Retail & distribution and hotel & restaurants na 11,381 12,854 11,071 11,121 13,552 15,709 2.0% 1.8% Transport & communications na 1,645 1,933 1,972 2,024 2,710 3,481 2.7% 2.9% Financial & business services na 3,011 4,482 4,204 4,231 5,357 6,550 6.9% 2.2% Public administration & defence na 2,513 2,791 2,692 2,441 2,464 2,630 1.8% -0.1% Education and health & social w ork na 7,750 11,638 11,578 10,927 12,467 14,339 7.0% 1.1% Other personal services na 2,191 3,197 3,083 3,076 3,739 4,420 6.5% 1.8% Total na 47,249 54,148 46,626 44,991 51,437 57,665 2.3% 1.1%
Resident economic activity Resident employment rate (% w orking age) 51% 58% 61% 52% 50% 55% 57% - - Unemployment rate (ILO, % labour force) 15% 9% 9% 20% 21% 12% 10% - - Economic inactivity rate (% w orking age) 39% 36% 33% 36% 37% 38% 38% - -
Commuting Net commuting na -3,559 -7,521 -5,413 -5,370 -5,522 -5,616 - -
Output (workplace-based) Real GVA (£m, 2003 prices *) na 1,879 2,293 2,072 2,188 2,926 4,244 3.4% 3.6% Real GVA annual grow th na 9.0% -2.7% -1.8% 3.0% 3.8% 3.8% - - Productivty (£000s, 2003 prices) * na 40 42 44 49 57 74 1.1% 2.6% Real GVA per capita (£000s, 2003 prices) * na 14 15 13 14 17 23 1.4% 2.8%
Source: Various and Citi-Scope Model (Oxford Economics)
Notes: * And 2003 exchange rates. Includes expatriated profits of multinationals
Part 1: Baseline - Annex B 130
Annex B: Urban local authorities used for benchmarking
Aberdeen City Kingston upon Hull, City of Sheffield Armagh Kirklees Slough Barnsley Knowsley Solihull Bath and North East Somerset Leeds South Gloucestershire Belfast Leicester South Tyneside Birmingham Lisburn Southampton Blackburn with Darwen Liverpool Southend-on-Sea Blackpool Luton St. Helens Bolton Manchester Stockport Bournemouth Medway Stockton-on-Tees Bracknell Forest Middlesbrough Stoke-on-Trent Bradford Milton Keynes Sunderland Brighton and Hove Newcastle upon Tyne Swansea Bristol, City of North East Lincolnshire Swindon Bury North Somerset Tameside Calderdale North Tyneside Telford and Wrekin Cardiff Nottingham Thurrock Coventry Oldham Torbay Darlington Peterborough Trafford Derby Plymouth Wakefield Derry Poole Walsall Doncaster Portsmouth Warrington Dudley Reading Wigan Dundee City Redcar and Cleveland Windsor and Maidenhead Edinburgh, City of Rochdale Wirral Gateshead Rotherham Wokingham Glasgow City Salford Wolverhampton Halton Sandwell York Hartlepool Sefton
Part 1: Baseline - Annex C 131
Annex C: Oxford Economics‟ suite of forecast models linked to Citi-Scope Model
World and UK macro and industry models
Oxford Economics‟ models are run in conjunction with the complete suite of economic models, each of which is integrated with the other models. Oxford Economics‟ UK macro model is itself fully integrated with Oxford Economics‟ world model. The UK regional model is then fully integrated with the UK macro model. This means that regional forecasts reflect a range of global economic developments.
Oxford Economics hierarchy of economic models
Model Outputs
WorldWorld Model Model (OE)
UK Income & Consumer Spending, UK UKMacro Macro Model Model (OE) Unemployment, Exports, Inflation, Public spending etc
Output and Employment UK UKIndustry Industry Model Model (OE) 59 Sectors
Employment by UK Regional Model 26 Sectors, GDP by 23 sectors (RF/OE) Total wages by sector, Demography, House prices and rents
Project defined variables, including at least labour market and demography data. May also include LocalLocal Models Models (RF/OE) output, housing, residence based labour market data, commuting,
incomes and migration
Model Linkages Outputs
Part 1: Baseline - Annex C 132
UK regional model
Oxford Economics‟ regional model was originally developed by Graham Gudgin (who became Director of the NIERC in 1985) while at the University of Cambridge. In 1985 the multi-regional model (MRM) became the basis for the UK's first regional industrial forecasting service. Oxford Economics produce a report on the economic outlook for the UK regions twice a year. The model currently forms the basis of a fully-fledged regional forecasting service and services a range of clients including major UK organisations both public and private.
The geographical scope of the MRM encompasses the twelve Government Office Regions of the UK. The model is industrially disaggregated. For each region, employment projections are made for 26 industries. GVA estimates both on a residence and workplace basis are made for 23 industries. Total employment by occupation is also available by 25 occupation classifications. Other economic and demographic indicators projected include unemployment, the labour force, population, average earnings, personal income and consumers' expenditure.
NI Policy Simulation Model (NI_PS)
The NI Policy Simulation Model (NI_PS), which sits within the UK regional model, is a recently developed model for the NI economy, capable of monitoring and forecasting the economic indicators for prosperity set out by the Economic Development Forum. The model is funded by the Department of Enterprise, Trade and Investment, Department of Finance and Personnel, Department of Employment and Learning and the Office of the First Minister and Deputy First Minister. It has been utilised by central and local government in Northern Ireland in recent years for a range of research projects.
The NI_PS model is a unique and groundbreaking tool to assist policy makers. Its key benefits are set out below:
. Allows storage and management of the large number of variables required, from disparate sources, to effectively monitor the EDF indicators . Allows time series analysis of the trends in the indicators providing useful context and insight on individual indicators . Facilitates comparative analysis with other UK regions / countries . Allow the indicator's future trends to be explored in tandem with each other so forecasts are consistent with each other
Part 1: Baseline - Annex C 133
. Provides the ability to test the impact of policy on economic outcomes . Gives an early warning system of emerging economic challenges . Assists the process of target setting . Provides an effective monitoring tool and empirical evidence base to assist the process of developing policy . Identifies gaps in both data and understanding . Prompts future research to plug gaps in understanding revealed by the model building
Local Model of Administrative Districts (LOMAD)
Oxford Economics have developed a NI Local Forecast Model of Administrative Districts (LOMAD). LOMAD is the forecast model used by Belfast City Council and has also been used for labour market forecasts for Derry City Council and for projects for a number of other councils. LOMAD uses our well- established NI Policy Simulation Model as its basis.
LOMAD holds detailed historical data (in some cases back to 1980) and forecasts (up to 2030) at district council level for a wide range of indicators including:
. Population . Employees (by 15 sectors – people and jobs) . Self-employment (by 9 sectors) . Unemployment . Gross value added output (by 14 sectors – consistent with NUTS 3 data, this is the only source of district council level GVA) . Productivity (9 sectors) . Occupational structure (9 groups – resident and workplace-based) . Commuting (9 occupational groups) . Tourism (trips and spend) . VAT registered businesses (4 sectors – new registrations, closures and stocks) . House prices . Wages (resident and workplace-based) . The model can also be developed to add other indicators of specific interest such as business land need, skill requirements and commuter transport flows by mode of transport.
Part 1: Baseline - Annex C 134
All – Island cross-border local economic forecasting model Following on from the All-Island Skills Study, Oxford Economics, in partnership with University College Cork, developed a unique cross-border economic forecasting model for the Newry-Dundalk Twin City region (on behalf of Newry & Mourne LSP).
Based on this data availability and matching exercise, the model Oxford Economics were able to develop, which already includes forecasts for the Derry-Donegal border region (and can be broken down further to split Letterkenny from the rest of Donegal), has capacity for a fairly wide range of economic variables. These include:
Demography
. Total population, working age population, net migration and natural increase
Workplace employment (people-based)
. Total employment
. Sectoral employment – agriculture, forestry & fishing; production (mining & quarrying, manufacturing and utilities); construction; retail & distribution; hotel & restaurants; transport & communications; financial & business services; public administration & defence; education; health & social work; other personal services
Economic activity
. Resident employment, labour force, unemployment and inactivity (including resident employment and unemployment rates)
Output
. Nominal factor cost GVA (in € and £)
. Real factor cost GVA annual growth (local currency)
Other
. Net commuting, nominal factor cost GVA per capita
Part 1: Baseline - Annex D 135
Annex D: Citi-Scope ward module methodology
Post-2001 Census estimate Historical data sources Forecast methodology methodology
Demography RCA and LPS 1993-2007 (QA Ward housing stock forecast by DSD) based on ward 10-year trend
Total housing stock NA (2008 and 2009 data available Sum of ward total housing but errors apparent - query stock scaled to Derry has been posted with DSD) aggregate forecast RCA and LPS 1993-2007 (QA Ward vacancy rate fixed at by DSD) 2007 ward vacancy rate
Vacancy rate NA Vacancy rate = Vacant Sum of ward vacant housing housing stock / total housing stock scaled to Derry stock aggregate forecast RCA and LPS 1993-2007 (QA by DSD) Total housing stock minus Occupied housing stock NA (2008 and 2009 data available vacant housing stock but errors apparent - query has been posted with DSD) Derry occupancy rate trend Derry occupancy rate trend adjusted for 2001-2007 natural adjusted for 2001-2007 natural increase factor (births minus increase factor (births minus Occupancy rate (average 2001 Census resident deaths) deaths) number of persons per population and 2001 RCA occupied housing stock) occupied housing stock Estimate / forecast Estimate / forecast constrained to a minimum constrained to a minimum occupancy rate of 1.75 and occupancy rate of 1.75 and maximum occupancy rate of 4 maximum occupancy rate of 4 Occupied housing stock * Occupied housing stock * occupancy rate occupancy rate 2001 Census resident Total population population Sum of ward population scaled Sum of ward population scaled to Derry NISRA mid-year total to Derry aggregate forecast population estimates
Part 2: Modelling results in detail 136
Post-2001 Census estimate Historical data sources Forecast methodology methodology Sum of ward working age Sum of ward working age economic activity status economic activity status categories categories 2001 Census resident Working age population population by age band Sum of ward working age Sum of ward working age population scaled to Derry population scaled to Derry NISRA mid-year working age aggregate forecast population estimates Workplace employment Derry workplace sector employment trend Derry workplace sector
employment trend Sum of ward sector Sectoral employment 2001 Census workplace employment scaled to Derry (except for retail & Sum of ward sector employment workplace sector employment distribution) employment scaled to Derry estimate (DETI Census of aggregate sector employment Employment and self- forecast employed estimates in Citi- Scope Model) Ward population trend (retail & distribution is thought of here Ward population forecast as a secondary sector) (retail & distribution is thought
of here as a secondary sector) Sum of ward sector Retail & distribution 2001 Census workplace employment scaled to Derry employment employment Sum of ward sector workplace sector employment employment scaled to Derry estimate (DETI Census of workplace sector employment Employment and self- forecast employed estimates in Citi- Scope Model) Ward bi-annual employee job change 2001 Census workplace Sum of ward combined sector
employment employment forecast change Sum of ward employee jobs Total workplace scaled to Derry workplace total employment 2001-2007 DETI Census of Sum of ward total employment employment estimate (DETI Employment bi-annual scaled to Derry workplace total Census of Employment and employee jobs employment forecast self-employed estimates in Citi-Scope Model) Resident economic activity
Part 2: Modelling results in detail 137
Post-2001 Census estimate Historical data sources Forecast methodology methodology Allocation of North West Allocation of North West Region and rest NI workplace Region and rest NI workplace employment change using an employment change using an interpolated 2001 Census interpolated 2008 ward ward commuting matrix-2008 estimated commuting pattern ward estimated commuting matrix-2030 ward estimated pattern matrix, 2001 Census commuting pattern matrix, propensity to work factor and 2001 Census propensity to 2001 Census skills of non- work factor and 2001 Census employed factor (excluding skills of non-employed factor inactive students and early (excluding inactive students retired) and early retired) 2001 Census resident Resident employment employment Ward estimate / forecast Ward estimate / forecast constrained to a minimum / constrained to a minimum / maximum resident maximum resident employment rate change of +/- employment rate change of +/- 2% pa (% working age 2% pa (% working age population) population)
Ward estimate / forecast Ward estimate / forecast constrained to a minimum / constrained to a minimum / maximum resident maximum resident employment rate of 25%-85% employment rate of 25%-85% (% working age population) (% working age population) Derry unemployment rate trend adjusted for ward Ward JSA claimant trend 2001 Census resident relative resident employment
unemployment rate change Unemployment Sum of ward unemployment
scaled to Derry unemployment 2001-2009 JSA claimants Sum of ward unemployment estimate scaled to Derry unemployment forecast
Part 2: Modelling results in detail 138
Post-2001 Census estimate Historical data sources Forecast methodology methodology Derry looking after family / home rate trend adjusted for ward age structure factor (persons aged 20-44 from Ward child benefit claimant 2001 Census) 2001 Census resident inactive trend
- looking after family / home Looking after family / Sum of ward looking after Sum of ward looking after home family / home scaled to Derry 2001-2007 working age child family / home scaled to Derry looking after family / home benefit claimants looking after family / home forecast estimate
Ward forecast constrained to a minimum rate of 4% (% working age population) Derry long-term sick rate trend adjusted for historic (2001- 2009) ward relative DLA rate change 2001 Census resident inactive Ward DLA recipient trend
- long-term sick Sum of ward long-term sick Long-term sick Sum of ward long-term sick scaled to Derry long-term sick 2001-2009 DLA working age scaled to Derry long-term sick forecast recipients estimate
Ward forecast constrained to a minimum rate of 4% (% working age population) Derry early retired rate trend Derry early retired rate trend adjusted for ward age adjusted for ward age structure factor (median age structure factor (median age from 2001 Census) from 2001 Census)
Sum of ward early retired Sum of ward early retired 2001 Census resident inactive Early retired scaled to Derry early retired scaled to Derry early retired - early retired estimate forecast
Ward estimate / forecast Ward estimate / forecast constrained to a minimum rate constrained to a minimum rate of 4% (% working age of 4% (% working age population) population)
Part 2: Modelling results in detail 139
Post-2001 Census estimate Historical data sources Forecast methodology methodology Derry inactive student rate trend adjusted for wad age structure factor (persons aged Ward FE full-time enrolment 10-18 from 2001 Census) 2001 Census resident inactive trend - students Sum of ward inactive student Inactive students Sum of ward inactive students scaled to Derry inactive 2001-2008 further education scaled to Derry inactive student forecast full-time enrolments student estimate Ward forecast constrained to a minimum rate of 2% (% working age population) Derry other inactive rate trend Derry other inactive rate trend
2001 Census resident inactive Other inactive Sum of ward other inactive Sum of ward other inactive - other inactive scaled to Derry other inactive scaled to Derry other inactive estimate forecast Resident economic activity by highest qualification Rolling age resident Rolling age resident qualification share structure for qualification share structure for each economic activity status each economic activity status category * ward resident category * ward resident All economic activity 2001 Census resident population at each economic population at each economic status categories by NVQ economic activity by age band activity status category activity status category 0-5 by NVQ 0-5
Sum of ward categories scaled Sum of ward categories scaled to Derry resident economic to Derry resident economic activity by NVQ 0-5 estimates activity by NVQ 0-5 forecasts
Part 1: Baseline - Annex E 140
Annex E: Citi-Scope ward baseline forecast profiles
Quadrant location Ward (for transport commuting analysis) Altnagelvin South East Ballynashallog North West Banagher South East Beechwood South West Brandywell South West Carn Hill North West Caw North East Claudy South East Clondermot South East Creggan Central South West Creggan South South West Crevagh South West Culmore North West Ebrington North East Eglinton North East Enagh North East Foyle Springs South West Holly Mount South East Kilfennan North East Lisnagelvin North East New Buildings South East Pennyburn North West Rosemount South West Shantallow East North West Shantallow West North West Springtown North West Strand City Centre The Diamond City Centre Victoria South East Westland South West
Part 2: Modelling results in detail 141
Headline impact results
Employment and GVA impact
• Taken in aggregate, the catalyst projects generate an estimated 12,300 net additional jobs and contribute £465m of additional GVA (wages and profits, 2005 prices) to the D~L economy by 2020 above the baseline forecast in 2020.
• This is 25% higher than the Oxford Economics Summer 2010 baseline forecasts for both employment and GVA in D~L in 2020.
• The comparable figures for the impact of the plan compared to baseline estimates in 2030 are 17,100 jobs and £594m of GVA respectively. The rate of job creation slows as a range of projects complete or reach their target levels. However with the additional skilled labour and potential for further catalytic impacts based on the new economy structure there are upsides to this outlook.
• Note the GVA impact figure is not the cumulative total of additional GVA. Impacts in individual years will vary, especially during the construction phase of the major capital projects
Table 1: Employment and GVA by broad sector in D~L, baseline and catalyst project scenario (2020)
Employment impact annual profile
Assessing the annual profile of employment is complex as the profile of the construction work associated with several catalyst projects (higher education expansion, City of Culture, Fort George and the Integrated Transport Strategy) and the „spike‟ associated with the City of Culture in 2013 require detailed modelling on a year by year basis (typically capital spend costs are only available in aggregate). The estimated time profile of the Plan‟s employment impact looks as follows.
Part 2: Modelling results in detail 142
Fig 1: Total employment in D~L, baseline and catalyst project scenario (1993-2030)
Fiscal impact
Provisional fiscal impact results suggest D~L‟s „fiscal balance‟ would improve by £183m in 2020 13 relative to the baseline . This improves the estimated deficit by 13% but still leaves the city running at an annual „cost‟ of £1.2bn. The improvement is largely a result of additional jobs, wages and profits generated by the D~L economy, plus a reduction in welfare payments. As much of the fiscal improvement accrues to Westminster, for example corporation tax, income tax or welfare benefit savings, the local tax impact would be more modest (although rates income does accrue moderately).
If also for comparing the public funding costs of the Plan, which span over several years, it is important to consider fiscal impacts of the Plan across all years, including beyond 2020. Although it is necessary to discount future fiscal benefits using an appropriate discount factor, using techniques such as net present value (NPV).
Spatial impact
A key element of the Citi-Scope modelling suite, and over-arching objective of the Plan, is to be able to gauge resident employment impacts by ward (as well as other factors such as labour market participation, skills, education attainment and participation in higher levels of education).
1. Fiscal balance, in broad terms, refers to the difference between the level of spending on public services and welfare payments in an area and the level of tax and non- tax revenue generated.
2. Note: The Citi-Scope Model assumes that as skills and mobility improve and employment opportunities become available, people do not move out of the ward in which they live. In practice significant out flows from more deprived wards is a likely outcome as residents improve their labour market status. This will only be prevented if the areas can be made more desirable and housing quality and amenities improve accordingly alongside the improved wealth profile. The catalyst project, „Quality Places, Spaces and Neighbourhoods‟, is specifically targeted at addressing this concern, and includes an intervention to implement an open spaces and greenways master plan.
Part 2: Modelling results in detail 143
The complexity of this should not be under-estimated given the need to first make sensible assumptions about the scale of targeting interventions to residents in wards (e.g. employment schemes, early intervention nurturing and skills escalation), translating this into the impact on the available supply of labour willing and able to work and commute from each ward, and then allocating 14 workplace jobs across D~L residents by wards, as well as to commuters and migrants .
Estimates suggest the following workplace and resident based impacts:
- Workplace: The majority of direct and catalytic additional jobs are in:
- Pennyburn, 36% (Fort George)
- Ebrington, 10% (City of Culture)
15 - City centre – Strand, 13% (where Magee and NWRC are also located ), and - City centre – Diamond, 7%
- The remaining net job impact is spread throughout other wards in the city.
- Resident: 30% of workplace jobs in D~L, which are forecast to be taken by D~L residents, are estimated to go to residents of D~L‟s top 10 most deprived wards, comprising 25% of the City‟s population (based on the new 2010 multiple deprivation results). This compares to the current stock of jobs of which the Citi-Scope model estimates only 20% are held by residents from these same top 10 most deprived wards. An alternative presentation of the ward labour market impacts is illustrated below. This shows how many of the most deprived wards are projected to benefit from the largest increase in resident employment rates. The negative resident employment rate impact for Strand and The Diamond is explained by an influx of a large number of students, many of whom are assumed to be inactive.
3. Debate is ongoing regarding the location of any Magee expansion but at present, as this is undecided, the impact is modelled on the basis of the university‟s current location.
.
.
Part 2: Modelling results in detail 144
Fig 2: Catalyst project scenario ward resident employment rate impact (2020)
Urban benchmarking impact
• The model provides for the capacity to benchmark the improvements in the city against other urban locations in the UK. The benchmarking suggests that by 2020 there will be a modest improvement in employment rate ranking, but the increased numbers of students attending the university and the college (most of whom will be economically inactive) prevents a more substantive rise and the city remains amongst the lowest 10%. Sickness levels and inactivity fall as the projects increase the number of people available for work, however limited employment opportunities for the lower skilled means that unemployment levels increase. This suggests significant additional available labour, which is a potential strength for the city to future investors.
• The city improves markedly as a centre for creative, cultural tourist, and digital employment, moving into the top 20 locations in the UK (by 2030 as much of the catalytic digital employment occurs post 2020) from a current position of 38th. This reflects an already strong position upon which to build, endorsing the plan‟s sectoral focus. The creative, cultural and tourist sector (excluding digital) also shows marked improvement rising from a mid-rank position into the top 20 by 2020.
• Professional services employment moves up ranking from a relatively low ranking (71st) by close to 20 positions on the „urban ranking ladder‟ by 2020.
Environmental impact
• The Citi-scope model produces carbon emission estimates, based upon population, employment and transport estimates. In the main carbon emissions increase in line with additional economic
Part 2: Modelling results in detail 145
activity and population, with a rise of 17% in CO2 emissions projected by 2020 (1,156k tonnes) above the baseline projection in 2020. Notably there is fall of 6% in emissions per job estimated by 2020 as the structure of employment changes and usage within sectors improves from changed working practices and technological change.
Transport impact
• The Citi-scope model produces basic transport information using the estimates of resident and workplace employment patterns. At present the model estimates an increase in commuting car journeys into D~L of 1,500 per day by 2020. Within city bus journeys are projected to rise by 10,000 by 2020, assuming a continuation of a switch from car to bus travel (partly as a result of the transportation strategy).
• This is five times the level of within city bus journeys recorded in 2001, reflecting an increase in mobility in the city and a policy shift towards bus usage. Car journeys within the city are forecast to fall by 20% from 2001 levels, again assuming success in the policy aims of the transportation strategy.
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The Survey
. A representative sample survey based on face-to-face interviews with 515 adult respondents of the Derry City Council Area was undertaken in August 2009.
. The initial results of that survey (residents living within the top 10 % most disadvantaged areas) are reported in this summary document.
. The composition of the survey sample in this report generally reflects the known demographics found within the Census 2001 data and other up to date statistical information. As such we are content that the information provided represents a representative sample.
Executive Summary
In general, the majority of residents were positive about their local neighbourhood and feel safe when out and about in their neighbourhood. There has been limited social mobility within these communities with over 75% of residents living in the neighbourhood more than 10 years.
A quarter of local residents reported teenagers hanging around the streets, rubbish and litter lying around, vandalism, people being drunk or rowdy and speeding vehicles/motorcycles as very big problems in their neighbourhood. The key areas of improvement that residents would like to see in their community were activities for teenagers, facilities for young children, jobs and employment, cleanliness of streets and the level of crime in their community.
Although, most residents are satisfied with Derry~Londonderry as a city in which to live, a significant number of residents feel unsafe when outside in the city centre after dark. Also, over fifty percent of residents did not consider Derry~Londonderry a friendly place for Protestants, ethnic minorities and gay, lesbian, bi sexual and transgender and a high proportion of residents feel that gay, lesbian, bisexual, transgender, travellers and ethnic minorities are treated unfairly in the city compared to other groups.
Residents are keen to get more involved in the decisions that affect their local community and the Derry City Council area. Over forty percent of residents reported that they did not feel that they could influence decisions affecting their local neighbourhood and over sixty percent of residents did not feel that they can influence decisions affecting the Derry City Council area.
Over a third of residents volunteer in their local community and a significant number of residents provide unpaid care in the community. The majority of residents reported being in good health,
Part 3: Citi-Scope Residents Survey however, over fifty percent of residents smoke and only thirty percent take part in or play sport and /or physical activity on a regular basis. Also residents raised concerns in relation to accessibility of GP‟s and dentists, the availability of respite care, training, information, advice and support to carers and waiting times for the hospital and outpatient clinics.
Nearly a quarter of all residents did not feel that education was important in their life however this figure fell considerably by age to 5% for 18-25 year olds.
Up to forty per cent of residents are interested in undertaking a course of study next year. Women are more interested in further education than men. Key barriers to entering further education are childcare, confidence and cost – especially for women. The top five things that residents think most need improving in Derry~Londonderry, is training, followed by education, activities and service for young people and arts.
A half of all those unemployed felt it was unlikely that they would begin work in the next twelve months and a significant number of residents said they were worse off financially than a year ago. Only 5.6% of residents could envisage starting their own business in the foreseeable future
Most residents are satisfied with their housing accommodation but some areas of dissatisfaction were cited including traffic noise, parking, dampness, difficulty in heating their home and layout.
Over a third of residents do not have access to a motor car for personal use and up to seventy five percent of residents have used public transport over the last 12 months. Approximately, forty percent of residents use public transport at least once a week. The major transport problems identified by residents were that bus fares were too expensive, the lack of night time services, no services to where you want to go and having to take two buses to get to the hospital. In addition, over a third of residents find it difficult to travel from their home to the hospital and recycling facilities and over a quarter of residents find it difficult to travel from home to a local dentist and council offices.
More than seventy per cent of residents are concerned about the environment and over a third of residents have taken action solely for environmental reasons in the last 12 months such as using less water, taking a life bag when shopping and switching off appliances when not in use. However, more than a quarter of residents do not recycle paper/cardboard and aluminium cans, approximately 50% of residents do not recycle plastic, glass and clothes and up to seventy five percent of residents do not recycle wood or electrical goods.
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Approximately sixty percent of residents are satisfied with cultural and entertainment provision across the city. Most residents have never visited a museum, musical performance or play/theatre and approximately one fifth of residents have never eaten out or went to a pub/club.
Top 10 % Disadvantaged Areas in the DCC Area
Respondent profile
. 42.5% of residents area living in the Triax NR Area, 19.4% in the Outer North NR area, 17.9% in the Outer West NR area, 7.1% in the Waterside NR area, 5.6% in the rural area and 7.5% from all other areas
. Over a quarter of all residents have been living in the neighbourhood since birth and a further 50% have been living in their neighbourhood 10 or more years.
. Local residents are predominantly from urban area 93.3%
. Local residents are predominantly from white ethnic groups 98.4%.
. 59.5% of the local residents interviewed were female and 40.5% male
. Local residents interviewed were predominantly Roman Catholic 90% followed by 4.8% Presbyterian, 2.8 % Church of Ireland, 1.2% Other Christian, 0.8% Other and 0.4% None
. 41.7% of respondents were single and never married, 36.1% were married, 9.1% were divorced, 6.3% were separated and 5.6% were widowed
. 21.6% of those interviewed were lone parents
. 9.1% of residents had dependents aged 0-4 years old, 32.9% of residents had dependents aged 0-18 years old and 4.4% of residents had dependents with a long term illness.
. 14.5% of respondents provide unpaid care and of those who provide this unpaid care 41.5% provide more than 50+ hours per week
. Local residents interviewed were predominantly heterosexual 92.7%.
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. 59.6% of residents interviewed consider themselves to be Nationalist, 8.0% consider themselves to be Unionist and 25.6% consider themselves neither Nationalist or Unionist and 6.8% declined to answer
. 51.2% of all households have no children aged 17 years or under, 20.2% of all households have one child aged 17 or under, 14.3% of all households have 2 children aged 17 or under, 6.7% of all households have 3 children aged 17 or under and 1.6% of households have 4 or more children aged 17 years or under
. 26.2% of all households have one adult aged 18 or over, 34.5% of all households have 2 adults aged 18 or over, 16.3% of all households have 3 adults aged 18 or over and 4% of all households have more than 4 adults aged 18 years or over
. 45.6% of households had no adults over 18 years of age working, 23.8% of households have 1 adult working, 15.5% of households have 2 adults working and 7.1% of households have 3 adults working.
. 3 out of every 10 households have a member/s of their household who have a disability that affects their normal day to day activities
. 36.1% of respondents were unemployed, 21.6% were in full time paid employment, 2.1% were in part-time paid employment, 11.2% were retired, 6.6% were long term sick/disabled and 4.1% were looking after family/home
Local Neighbourhood
. 5 out of every 10 residents have been resident in the area for 10 years or more and 7.2% have been resident in the area less than 2 years. Over a quarter of all residents have been living in the area since birth.
. 79.9% of residents felt fairly (36.9%) or very strongly (43%) belonged to their local neighbourhood
. 27.1% of residents either disagreed (19.8%) or strongly disagreed (7.3%) with the statement that they felt a sense of pride in the way their neighbourhood, street, community looks and feels
. Activities for teenagers and facilities are ranked as the most important in making somewhere a good place to live. This was followed by housing, good neighbours, clean streets, level of crime and health services
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. A significantly higher percentage of males compared to females ranked education and housing as the most important in making somewhere a good place to live.
. A significantly higher percentage of females compared to males ranked access to the countryside, culture and leisure activities, parks and open spaces, facilities for young people, level of pollution, traffic congestion, cross community relations, road/pavement repairs and wage levels/cost of living as the most important in making somewhere a good place to live
. Activities for teenagers are ranked as the most in need of improving. This was followed by facilities for young children, jobs and employment, clean streets and level of crime
. A significantly higher percentage of females compared to males ranked community activities, education, parks and open spaces, road/pavement repairs, shopping and cross community relations in most need of improvement in their local area
. A significantly higher percentage of males compared to females ranked health in most need of improvement in their local area
. Only 8.4% of residents were either fairly ( 5.6%) or very (2.8%) dissatisfied with their local neighbourhood as a place to live
. 12.3% of residents (8.9% of males and 14.7% of females) rated their neighbourhood as a poor place to bring up children and young people.
. 39.4% of residents (40.6% of males and 38.5% of females) rated their neighbourhood as a poor place for providing recreation, sport, play and learning opportunities for children and young people.
. 65.1% of residents (65.9% of males and 73.8% of females) would like to see additional support and services for children and young people in their community.
. Significantly more people have a positive sense of community than have a negative sense. For example, 82% of people say their area is a friendly place to live compared with 10.3% who either disagree a little or strongly that their area is not a friendly place to live
. Likewise, 86.1% say that they would be happy asking certain local people to keep an eye on their house and property compared with 10.2% who either disagree a little or strongly about asking someone to keep an eye on their house or property.
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. 66.9% of residents interviewed felt their area was a close tight knit community compared to 15.2% who disagreed a little and 8.6% who disagreed strongly that their area was a close, tight knit community.
. Although residents have positive attitudes towards their community, 51% considered entertainment facilities poor, 49% considered arts and culture activities poor, 47% considered employment services poor, 47% considered play facilities poor, 39% considered rural parkland poor, 39% considered business start up service and facilities were poor, 38% consider youth facilities and policing service poor, 35% considered recreation facilities poor and 34% considered sport facilities and physical activities poor
Health
. 15.6% of residents describe their health as poor (8.4%) or very poor (7.2%)
. 31.9% of residents say they have a long-standing illness, disability or infirmity and of those 64.2% had a health problem or disability that limited their daily activities.
. Additional support and/or services they would like to see put in place to help manage their illness or disability more effectively included more affordable/free disabled car parking, better information on what is available, better access to some buildings, more visits from nurses and support groups.
. Around 5% of people report that over the past month they feel all or most of the time so down in the dumps that nothing could cheer them up.
. 5% of people report that they have not felt calm and cheerful over the past month. 9.6% report that they have had no energy over the past month and 7.6% have felt downhearted and low most or all of the time over the past month.
. Over the past month 3.2% felt worn out all the time, 6.5% felt tired all the time, 6.1 % felt stressed all of the time and 6.4% felt their health had limited their social activities.
. 73.1% of residents (58.6% of males and 82.7% of females) have used health and social services over the past year.
. The main health and social services used by residents over the past year were GP, followed by Dentist, Hospital consultant, health visitor, Chiropodist and Physiotherapist
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. 14% of residents were fairly dissatisfied (9.5% males and 16.5% females) and 3.4% (5.4% males and 2.3% females) were very dissatisfied with health and social services. The main reasons mentioned for their dissatisfaction was access to GP‟s and dentists.
. 50% of residents smoked and of those 74.8% smoked on a daily basis. 80.5% of females smoked daily compared to 66% of males
. 52.4% of respondents participated in physical activity for 20 minutes or more at least 3 times a week
. The main reasons given by residents for not participating in physical activity were due to their illness followed by having no time, they don‟t want to, expense and no facilities.
. 16.7% of residents have been in need of regular help (e.g. getting washed, getting dressed, getting a meal ready) during the last five years and 18% had a close relative, friend or neighbour who have been in need of regular help during the last five years.
. Only 4.5% were dissatisfied with the level of care received.
. 17.7% of residents felt that people in need of personal care had no choice about who provided them with the care they needed and 16.3% felt that people in need of personal care in their local neighbourhood were not able to get the services and support they needed to continue to live at home for as long as they wanted to
. Actions residents would like to see put in place to ensure people in need of personal care are able to get the services and support they needed to continue to live at home for as long as they wanted to included recruiting unemployed people to help clean up areas and do gardens, recruit more home helps and having a network of people that are trustworthy and can keep an eye.
. 74.7% of residents felt that there should be more advice, information, support and/or help provided to carers such as training, more support groups, more respite care, more advice and support workers and online support/forums/chat rooms
. 13.2% of residents found the time you have to wait for an operation in hospital as a major problem and 14.8% reported the waiting time for an appointment at an outpatient clinic in hospital as a major problem.
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. 1 in every 10 residents reported children and teenagers experiencing behaviour or emotional problems as a major problem over the last 12 months
Physical Security
. Thinking about their local neighbourhood approximately 27% of residents report that teenagers hanging around the streets, rubbish or litter lying around and vandalism are very big problems.
. This is followed by approximately 25% of residents who report that people being drunk or rowdy in public places and speeding vehicles/motorcycles as very big problems in their local neighbourhood
. 20% of residents report that quads/scramblers is a very big problem, 19.4% report car parking with the area as a very big problem, 15.6 % report people using or dealing drugs as a very big problem and 14.8% report people not treating others with respect as a very big problem.
. Less than 10% of residents report that abandoned or burnt out cars, bonfire sites, theft/burglary, sectarianism, people being attacked or harassed because of the colour of skin, ethnic group, religion or sexual orientation, vacant property or fly tipping as very big problems in their neighbourhood
. Less than 5% of residents report that solvent abuse and neighbour disputes are very big problems in their neighbourhood.
. 30.6% of residents disagreed (16.7%) or strongly disagreed (13.9%) that local public services were successfully dealing with the problems above.
. 53% of residents tended to disagree (24.5%) or definitely disagreed (28.5%) that parents in their local community took enough responsibility for the behaviour of their children.
. Over the past 12 months 1 out of every 5 residents or members of their household have experienced vandalism of property and vandalism of vehicle
. 13.9% of residents or members of their household has experienced a verbal threat over the past 12 months, 10.7% of residents or members of their household have experienced a physical assault over the past 12 months and 7.5% of residents or members of their household have experienced a burglary over the past 12 months
. 2.8% of residents and/or members of their household have experienced a sexual assault.
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. 2.8% of residents and/or members of their household have experienced a racist attack and 2.8% have experienced a sectarian attack over the past 12 months
. As a direct result of being worried about criminal acts or acts of antisocial behaviour over the last 12 months, 32.9% of residents report that they have removed things from view in their vehicle, 24.6% has improved their home security. 17.1% have used taxi/car rather than walk, 16.7% have avoided certain areas, 15.1% avoid going out late at night and 2.8% carry a personal alarm
. 8.7% of residents have thought of moving away in the last 12 months as a direct result of being worried about criminal acts or acts of antisocial behaviour.
. 41.4% of residents report that they do not have a house insurance policy
. 19.4% of respondents felt fairly unsafe (10.7%) or very unsafe (8.7%) when outside in their local neighbourhood after dark compared to only 1.6% of respondents who felt fairly unsafe (0.8%) and very unsafe (0.8%) when outside in their local neighbourhood during the day.
. 17.1% of females felt fairly or very unsafe in their neighbourhood after dark compared to 9% of males.
. 38.1% of respondents felt fairly unsafe (22.2%) and very unsafe (15.9%) when outside in the city centre after dark compared to only 0.8% of respondents who felt fairly unsafe and 0.4& who felt very unsafe in the city centre during the day.
. 42.4% of females felt fairly or very unsafe in the city centre after dark compared to 33.6% of males
. The type of initiatives residents would like to see put in place to help them feel safer when they are in the city centre include more street lighting, more CCTV, more police foot patrols and tougher action against people who commit anti social behaviour.
Education
. 8% of residents reported they are in full time education
. Of those not in full time education 83.3% had left full-time education by the age of 17 years old and a further 11.5% had left by the age of 21 years old.
. Around 23% of adult residents report that education is not very important (14.4%) or not at all important in their life (8.2%).
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. 26.3% of males and 20.1% of females reported that education is not very important or not at all important in their life.
. 5% of 18-22 year olds reported that education is not at all important in their life, compared to 9.7% of 36 to 40 years olds, 8.3% of 41-46 years olds and 16.7% of 50-56 year olds
. 38.4% of residents reported an interest in undertaking a course of study next year. Of those 22% would be interested in a full-time course, 68% in a part-time course, 5% in either a full or part-time course and 5% are undecided.
. Of those interested in undertaking a course of study next year 71% were females and 29% were males.
. Only a third of those interested in undertaking a course next year want to undertake the course to help their career or gain employment.
. 40.3% of females would like to do a course next year mainly for leisure compared to only 16% of males
. Just over two fifths of residents (42.4%) report that there are reasons that prevent them from undertaking a course of study at the moment.
. Of those who have reasons that prevent them from undertaking a course of study at the moment 73.5% were female and 26.5% were male. The most common reasons cited were lack of childcare, cost, lack of confidence, lack of time and the time courses are held
. Over two thirds of residents (71.2%) report a satisfaction with their level and/or type of qualifications
. Residents think that easier access to courses/training, a better choice of courses, better funding for education (too costly) and graduate schemes with employers would help them to develop and increase their level and/or type of qualifications.
Standard of Living
Housing
. The main type of housing residents are living in are terraced house/bungalow (49.6%) followed by semi detached (28.2%), detached house (7.7%), purpose built flat/maisonette/house (5.2%), semi
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detached bungalow (4.4%), rooms in flat/maisonette/house (2.0%), detached bungalow (1.6%) and part of house/maisonette (1.2%)
. 35.2% of respondents are owner occupied, 34.4% of respondents rent their home from the NIHE, 13.4% rent from a Housing Association, 9.7% rent privately, 7.3% neither rent or own and either live with parents, their partner, their grandparents or relatives
. 8 out of ten residents are satisfied with their housing accommodation. Only 7.6% of residents are dissatisfied or very dissatisfied with their housing accommodation. The reasons for dissatisfaction included traffic noise, parking, dampness, difficulty to heat and layout
Household Items
. Over 4.8% of residents do not have a fridge freezer and 4.0% do not have a washing machine
. Between 90% and 95% of residents have a mobile phone (90.9%) and colour TV (93.7%)
. 6% of residents do not have a smoke detector
. Just over 70% have a fixed telephone line
. Less than 35% of residents have a dishwasher and just over 50% have a game console and plasma 32 inch TV
. Approximately 6 out of 10 residents have a tumble dryer, (59.5%) PC/laptop (63.9) and Sat/cable TV (63.9%)
Income
. 27% of residents or someone in their household found it a major problem to find employment over the last 12 months and 21.4% found it a major problem to afford recreational activities over the last 12 months.
. Over the past year up to 17% of residents are finding budgeting a major problem, 14% are finding it a major problem to heat their home, 12% are finding it a major problem to have enough money for clothing and shoes and 11% are finding it a major problem to pay for the utility bills.
. 15.2% of respondents are finding it quite difficult (11.1%) or very difficult (4.1%) to manage financially
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. 35.7% of respondents said they were worse of financially than they were a year ago compared to 12.7% of respondents who said they were better off than they were a year ago
. 20.3% of respondents think they will be worse off financially in a year from now compared to 7.9% of respondents who think they will be better off financially in a year from now
Internet
. 4 out of 10 households had access to the internet at home
. 61.2% of females and 53.1% of males had access to the internet at home
. The most common reason why households did not have the internet at home was because they did not have a PC at home, followed by lack of interest, cost, no need, cost of PC/software, lack of skill and confidence and feeling too old.
Transport
. 36% of people do not have access to a motor car for their personal use
. 37% of respondents travel outside their area everyday, 22% travel several times a week outside their area and 22% travel about once a week outside their area.
. 37% of respondents found it difficult (24.2%) or very difficult to travel (12.3%) to the hospital from their home and 32.7% found it difficult (22.5%) or very difficult (10.2%) to travel to a recycling facility from their home
. 27.9% of respondents found it difficult or very difficult to travel to a local dentist from their home and 25.7% found it difficult or very difficult to travel to the Council offices from their home.
. 24.9% found it difficult or very difficult to travel to public open spaces from their home and 24% found it difficult to travel to the job centre from their home
. Between 5 and 10% of respondents found it difficult or very difficult to travel from their home to local shop (5.6%), shopping centre/supermarket (7.7%), shop selling fresh fruit and veg (9.9%), post office (6.1%), parent and toddler group (8.8%), preschool (6.7%), primary school (4.1%) and public transport (9.8%)
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. Approximately 1 in 10 people found it difficult or very difficult to travel from their home to a chemist (11.7%), secondary school (11.2%), library (11.6%), bank/cash point (12%) and work (11%)
. Approximately 1 in 5 people found it difficult or very difficult to travel from their home to Social Security Office (19.8%), Further Education College (21.4%), health centre (21%), sports and leisure centre (20.7%) and doctors (20.8%)
. 27.2% of residents report that they have not used public transport in the last 12 months
. 9.1% report that they use public transport more than 5 times a week, 13.6% 2-4 times a week and 14.4% once a week.
. The most often reason cited as to why they do not use public transport more often are that transport doesn‟t go where I want followed by prefer private transport, no need, don‟t go out, lack of full-time service, no services, prefer to walk/cycle, not convenient, not safe and age/disabilities make it unsuitable.
. 12% of respondents felt that the non-availability of public and/or private transport affected their ability to travel. Respondents noted that there are too few services to certain areas of the city such as Culmore, that the late night service/s was non existent and that the service restricts you from taking the kids on a day out or visiting relatives.
. Residents cited that the some of the major transport problems for people in the DCC area are that bus fares are too expensive, lack of night time services, no services to where you want to go, having to take two buses to get to the hospital and congestion
. Residents felt that a number of steps could be taken to overcome public transport problems in the city including reducing fares, improving the night time service, being more users friendly, putting on more routes throughout the city and improving access for people with mobility problems.
Environment
. Overall, 72.3% of people were concerned (32.7%), fairly concerned (22%) or very concerned (17.6%) about environmental issues.
. When residents were asked to rank their top five environmental problems that are important to them household waste received the highest ranking followed by climate change, traffic congestion and pollution in the rivers.
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. 34.2% of respondents (61.7% female and 38.3% male) have taken action solely for environmental reasons in the last 12 months.
. The type of actions they have taken include recycling, switching energy supplier, changing to energy saving bulbs, using less water, switching off appliances when not in use, walking when possible and taking a life bag when shopping.
. The areas of environmental improvement which respondents would like to see introduced or developed within the city to help improve the environment include cleaner streets, more kerbside collections, more recycling centres nearer to local areas, more advice on conserving energy and water, plant more trees, solar panels on houses, regenerate derelict land, control illegal dumping and dog owners being more responsible for dog fouling
. When asked whether or not they recycle materials the most common material recycled by residents was paper/cardboard (74.6%), followed by metal/aluminium cans (65.1%), plastic (56%), glass (55.2%), clothes (50.4%), kitchen waste (28.2%), electrical goods (27.8%) and wood (24.2%)
. The main reasons given why the residents or their household have not regularly recycled certain items over the past 12 months are because they have no time/lack of desire, lack of household storage, no recycling facilities and recycling facilities are too far away.
Employment
. 1 in 10 respondents (58.3% female and 41.7% male) were self employed
. 21.6% of residents were in paid full time employment (61.5% females and 38.5% males) and 2% of residents were in part-time employment (100% females). Of those who were employed their occupations ranged from teacher, secretary, lecturer, freelance graphic designer, supermarket manager, chemist to cleaner, kitchen assistant, electrician, bar staff, bricklayer, security guard, school care taker and play worker.
. A significant minority of people employed were dissatisfied with their work life balance (13.3%) dissatisfied and (9.7%) very dissatisfied
. 36.1% of respondents reported they were unemployed. Of those unemployed 8.5% were unemployed less than a year, 11.1% were unemployed 1 to 2 years, 41.9% were unemployed between 2 and 5 years, 25.6% were unemployed between 5 to 10 years and 12.8% were unemployed 10 or more years
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. Of those who are unemployed the most common difficulties they faced when trying to find suitable work is reported as there are no jobs in the area, followed by its not economically viable, feel I need training/skills first, not qualified/lack qualifications, no reliable transport to jobs and low confidence levels
. Additional support or services they reported are required to help them gain employment are better paid jobs, more flexible working hours, more job opportunities and more information about volunteering.
. Approximately 48% of respondents felt it was unlikely or very unlikely that they would begin paid work in the next twelve months.
. 11.9% of respondents had participated in a government training programme (56.7% were males and 43.3% were females) in areas such as bricklaying, carpentry, childcare, hairdressing and beauty, IT and health and hygiene.
. Respondents commented that the training programmes either started their career, started their first job after finishing, helped them get out of the house and helped them with writing CV/interview skills
. 5.6% of respondents (57.1% females and 42.9% males) could envisage starting their own business in the foreseeable future. The type of business they would envisage starting up included retail, construction, food processing/catering, IT, health, tourism, environmental planning and care service.
. Males were more interested than females in starting their own business in IT, health and construction whilst females were more interested than males in starting their own business in food processing/catering and retail.
Participation, Influence & Voice
Neighbourhood
. 41.2% of respondents tend to disagree (21%) or definitely disagree (20.2%) that they can influence decisions affecting their local neighbourhood and 23.5% of respondents don‟t know if they can influence decisions affecting their neighbourhood.
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. 39.4% of respondents would like to be more involved in the decisions that affect their local neighbourhood and a further 43.2% would get more involved in the decisions that affect their local neighbourhood depending on the issue
. Actions respondents would like to see in their local community to enable them to have an influence on decisions affecting their neighbourhood included posters, local newsletter, local venues where residents can meet to discuss issues, more information in parish bulletins, local radio
City
. 7 out of every 10 respondents did not feel informed about public services or how local bodies made decisions
. 6 out of every 10 respondents did not feel informed about what standard of service you should expect from local public services, how well local public services are performing, how to complain about local public services and what to do in the event of a large scale emergency
. 11.7% of respondents did not feel very well informed about how and where to register to vote and 4.6% did not feel well informed at all
. 63.5% of respondents tended to disagree (27.8%) or definitely disagree (35.7%) that they can influence decisions affecting the Derry City Council Area
. A third of all respondents were dissatisfied or very dissatisfied with local peoples ability in Derry~Londonderry to influence decisions that affect their lives and the city
. Areas of support that residents want to see put in place which would enable more local people to have an influence on decisions affecting their city included more public meetings, more opinion surveys and clinics held by councillors to ensure people can access them more easily
. A quarter of all respondents would like to be more involved in the decisions that affect Derry~Londonderry and a further 47.7% of respondents would like to get involved on decisions that affect the city depending on the issue
Volunteering
. 35.3% of residents (60.7% females and 39.3% males) report that they volunteer.
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. The most popular type of organisation that residents volunteer with is youth groups, women groups, resident organisations, senior citizen groups, charity groups and religious groups.
. Some of the reasons reported by residents for not volunteering included same people always involved, lack of confidence, lack of time and family commitments.
Sport and Physical Activity
. Only 3 out of every 10 respondents take part in or play sport and /or physical activity on a regular basis.
. The type of sport or physical activity that residents take part in or play on a regular basis include running, cycling, swimming, dancing, football, walking, fencing, yoga, aerobics, weight training, circuit training, hiking, boxing, handball, volleyball, basketball, netball, hockey and hurling.
. Residents report that reducing the cost of sport/physical activities and having activities closer to home would encourage them to take part in or play sport/physical activity on a regular basis.
. 1 out of every 5 respondents were either fairly (14.7%) or very dissatisfied (5.3%) with the sports/physical activity provision in Derry~Londonderry. Of those very dissatisfied with sports and physical activity provision 61.5% were males compared to 38.5% of females.
. The reasons given by respondents for their dissatisfaction were that during school holidays there are none, when schools off everything shuts down and they need modernised/done up.
Cultural & Entertainment Activities
. 89.7% of respondents have never taken part in lessons in music/drama or dance.
. 81% of respondents have never visited a museum, 75.7% of respondents have never attended a musical performance and 66.7% of respondents have never attended a play/theatre.
. 3 out of every 10 respondents have never visited the cinema or attended events/festivals.
. 18.8% of respondents never eat out whilst 21% eat out once a month, 19.2% eat out more than once a month and 28.8% eat out less than once a month.
. 21.9% of respondents never go to a pub/club whilst 25.9% go to a pub/club more than once a month, 13.2% go to a pub/club once a month and 21.5% go to a pub/club less than once a month.
Part 3: Citi-Scope Residents Survey
. 1 out of every 4 respondents go to a pub/club more than once a month and 1 out of every 5 respondents eat out more than one a month.
. Less than 2% of respondents take part in or attend lessons in music/drama/dance, play/theatre, or events/festivals more than once a month.
. Less than 1% of respondents take part in or attend musical performance, or museums more than once a month.
. The festival/events attended by respondents in the last year include the Halloween Activities, St Patrick‟s Day Parade, the Gasyard Feile, the Galliagh Festival, Christmas Lights, the Jazz Festival and the Glen Fun Day.
. 62.7% of respondents were either very satisfied (25.4%) or fairly satisfied (37.3%) with cultural and entertainment provision in Derry~Londonderry.
. Residents report „too pricey‟ and „no transport‟ for their dissatisfaction with cultural and entertainment provision in Derry~Londonderry.
. Residents report that they would like to see more free or affordable entertainment e.g. open air festivals, more open spaces for people to meet and enjoy and something in my local area, Galliagh to enhance the cultural and entertainment provision in Derry/Londonderry.
. When respondents were asked to describe what would be their best evening out in the city they stated „going to the pictures and for a few drinks‟, „meal with friends and then few drinks in pub‟, „watch football in pub‟, „theatre and meal‟ and „going to see play/performance in Millennium Forum‟.
. When respondents were asked what if anything would help improve their shopping experiences in the city they stated „more parking‟, „cheaper parking nearer the shops‟ and „more seats in shopping centres‟.
Identity, Expression and Self Respect
. 30% of respondents tend to disagree (20.8%) or definitely disagree (9.2%) that Derry/Londonderry is a place where people from different backgrounds get on well together.
. 39.6% of respondents think there is a very big problem (8.3%) or a fairly big problem (31.3%) with people not treating each other with respect and consideration.
Part 3: Citi-Scope Residents Survey
. 36.4% of respondents said relations between Protestants and Catholics in Derry~Londonderry are better than they were 5 years ago compared to 9.9% of respondents who said that relations were worse than they were 5 years ago.
. 46.7% of respondents said relations between Protestants and Catholics were about the same as they were 5 years ago.
. If residents had a choice where to live, 46.7% of residents report that would they prefer to live in a mixed religion neighbourhood compared to 33.8% of residents who reported that they would prefer to live in a neighbourhood with people of their own religion.
. If residents had to move to a new job 52.8% of residents report that they would prefer a mixed religion workplace compared to 8.5% of residents who would prefer a workplace with people of only their own religion. 29.4% had no preference.
. Actions residents would like to see put in place to enhance community relations between Protestants and Catholics within the city included removing the barriers of division e.g. Fountain wall, integrated schooling, more cross community projects, better education for mutual understanding, local venue/s where people of different religions can meet, more shared space within the city, more cross community festivals, more events such as ethnic minorities demonstrating their culture and less secrecy around „loyal orders‟.
Your City
. 82.9% of residents report that they are very satisfied (26.9%) or fairly satisfied (56%) with Derry~Londonderry as a city in which to live.
. The things residents report that they like best about living in Derry~Londonderry are family, friends, people, history, atmosphere, schools nearby and central to the city.
. The main concerns about Derry~Londonderry that residents report are street violence, drinking, drug culture, anti social behaviour, litter, too many pubs/clubs and open long hours, dog fouling, fear of violence, fearful of young people, unemployment, low paid jobs, graffiti and ongoing argument over the name of the city.
. When residents were asked to rank the top five things that they think most needs improving in Derry~Londonderry, the most Important issue that they identified in need of improving was training, followed by education, activities and service for young people and arts.
Part 3: Citi-Scope Residents Survey
. 59% of respondents did not consider Derry~Londonderry a friendly place for Protestants, 58.4% of respondents did not consider Derry~Londonderry a friendly place for ethnic minorities and 54.4% of respondents did not consider Derry~Londonderry a friendly place for gay, lesbian, bi sexual and transgender.
. 34.9% of respondents did not consider Derry~Londonderry a friendly place for young people, 23.3% did not consider Derry~Londonderry a friendly place for senior citizens and 19.9% did not consider Derry~Londonderry a friendly place for Catholics.
. 1 out of every 4 respondents did not consider Derry~Londonderry a friendly place for people with a disability.
. 14.7% of respondents did not consider Derry~Londonderry as a friendly place for children and 13.4% did not consider Derry~Londonderry a friendly place for families.
. 48% of respondents ranked less antisocial behaviour as their number one issue that they would like to see change over the next 10 years in Derry~Londonderry to make it a better place to live.
. This was followed by 7.5% of respondents who ranked tourism as the number one issue they would like to see improve over the next 10 years, 6.3% of respondents who ranked more affordable housing as the number one issue and 5.2% of respondents who ranked more visible police as their number one issue that they would like to see change over the next 10 years in Derry~Londonderry to make it a better place to live.
. 52.4% of residents feel that gay, lesbian, bisexual and transgender are treated unfairly in Derry~Londonderry. Similarly, 48.9% of residents feel that travellers are treated unfairly and 44.8% of residents feel that people from other ethnic minorities are treated unfairly in the Derry/Londonderry when compared to other groups.
. This was followed by 38.4% of residents who feel that young people are treated unfairly in Derry~Londonderry, 37.6% of residents who feel that Protestants are treated unfairly and 35.2% of residents who feel that people with a disability are treated unfairly
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SWG Page
Education and Skills 167
Enterprise and Employment 172
Tourism, Arts, Culture and Leisure 176
Marketing the Derry Opportunity 179
Transport & Infrastructure 182
City Region Assets 186
River Asset 190
Environment and Conservation 193
Citizenship and Civic Pride 197
Health and Well Being 202
Children and Young People 205
Successful Neighbourhoods 208
Part 4: SWG Foundation Documents 167 Appendix D1 – SWG Foundation Documents 167 Education and Skills
Inequalities, Needs Challenges and Opportunities
The key issues in Education & Skills are rooted in family poverty (including poverty of aspiration) and are reflected in inequalities in attainment levels and in the deficit in the stock of skills of the resident workforce.
There is a need to raise Literacy and Numeracy levels, to enhance Family Support and Parenting (including support to raise aspiration) , to very substantially expand the Higher Education Provision in the city, to devise a strategy to provide direction to and monitor the impact of skills development provision in the city and to foster collaboration (between schools, between schools and FE & HE, between skills providers and between the education and skills sector and the business community) by building a community of schools. Finally there is a need to track people‟s progress through the education and skills system from an early age through to their mid twenties, so as to enable the effective targeting of timely support to those who need it most.
Addressing these needs proactively would:
. Create opportunities for more people to participate in the world of work and to contribute more to family and civic life;
. Deliver much of the up-skilling necessary for the city to be a competitive location in which to grow the economy of the future;
. Reduce the inequalities in attainment and skills levels evident across the city; and
. Help to attract Investment
Improving the levels Literacy and Numeracy would provide the community with a sound foundation on which to build an adaptable workforce, one which would be better placed to service the needs of the economy and reap the benefits which an expansion of the HE (particularly University) provision would create in terms of opportunities for up-skilling, job and wealth creation in emerging sectors such as Sustainable Technologies and growth sectors such as Tourism, Creative Technologies, Construction, Arts practices and the Professions associated with International Business and Medicine.
Another challenge is to raise the stock of skills in the resident community so that many more of our people are qualified at higher levels. One estimate suggests that in future 54% of the net requirement
Part 4: SWG Foundation Documents 168 from education and in-migration will be for people qualified to NVQ level 4 and above if we are to be competitive in the economy of the future. Depending on the data source being reviewed the current estimate is that between 17 & 22% of the working age population is qualified to this level. The city requires a clear and consistently applied strategy to attain this shift, engaging those currently in the workforce as well as new entrants and those of working age currently not in employment.
There are individual schools within Derry~Londonderry which excel academically and are within the top quartile of schools across the whole of Northern Ireland. Educational outturns across the district council area as a whole, however, lag behind the Northern Ireland average, with 27% of the working age population having no formal qualifications compared to a national average of 22%. This is due in part to the out-migration of many of the City‟s highest achievers to pursue the wider choice of Higher Education and Employment opportunities offered outside the region. The disparity in educational attainment across the City is illustrated in the percentage of school leavers achieving 5 GCSE‟s at A*- C which ranges from 35% to 93% across all wards.
One example is at Key Stage 3, where attainment in English at level 5 ranges from 13.5% to 100% of pupils across the city, in Maths the attainment range at level 5 is 28% to 100%.
The wards in which attainment is lowest include Brandywell, Creggan Central and South, Ebrington, Strand and Victoria. Pockets of low attainment are also evident in Lisnagelvin, New Buildings and Westland showing possible early signs of deprivation to come.
The link between low educational performance and low socio-economic circumstances has been well documented and is widely accepted. Recent research (Joseph Rowntree Foundation: Poorer children‟s educational attainment: how important are attitudes and behaviours, March 2010) suggests that a school‟s performance is a relatively minor contributor to low attainment. Of the various influencing factors, evidence suggests that family background and household income are critical to pupil attainment levels. The richness of the home learning environment is particularly important in Early Years. At Primary School Level, maternal aspirations for Higher Education, how far parents and children believe their own actions can affect their lives and children‟s behavioural problems are important. At Second Level, expectations for Higher Education and access to material resources are amongst the important influences. Parents‟ own cognitive abilities are important throughout childhood.
This link between low educational performance and low socio-economic circumstances is fully evident in Northern Ireland, with those entitled to Free School Meal Entitlement (FSME) three times less likely to attain three or more A-Levels than would ordinarily be expected. Whilst Derry~Londonderry has both the Grammar and Non-Grammar schools with the highest proportion of pupils entitled to Free
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School Meals, there is evidence to suggest that some of the schools with high levels of FSME are delivering better than would be expected attainment levels.
In light of these disparities early identification and intervention are important, as well as support for parents and the promotion of, and access to, Higher Education. There is good practice within the pre- school, primary, second level and Higher Education sectors which can be built upon and which needs to be shared across all schools and within the Further and Higher Education Sectors. Initiatives are beginning to take shape to address the education and skills deficit, particularly with respect to promoting and widening access to Further and Higher Education. The „Step-up‟ Programme, available to non selective schools in partnership with the University of Ulster provides an intense two-year programme of science related activity which complements dedicated work by teachers delivering Applied Science courses post 16. The University and schools work with up to 50 partners in industry, commerce, hospitals and government agencies to provide students with work experience, learning activities, support and mentoring aimed at building self-esteem and an interest in STEM (Science Technology Engineering and Maths) subjects as a pathway for future progression. This initiative, together with the fact that four of our second level schools are STEM specialist schools, gives us a sound foundation on which to build in relation to the promotion of STEM subjects.
Nevertheless, much more remains to be done to ensure that all of the City‟s residents have access to the opportunity to realise their full educational potential as well and up-skill so that they can contribute to realising our vision.
Vision
“Through dedication to excellence in education and skills provision, we attain our high personal, community, cultural and economic ambitions, creating a vibrant, outward looking, high achieving city region.”
Priorities
. Address the impacts of family poverty through collaboration and partnership between those who teach, those who nurture and those who provide care and support;
. Enhance levels of educational attainment starting with literacy and numeracy, whilst promoting attainment in certain subject areas such as STEM;
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. Enhance skills provision to deliver increased ambition and an improved stock of skills in the community, through a skills strategy for the city with clear pathways from School, through FE and HE to the world of work.
. Expansion of HE provision in the city
. Tracking of all learners from an early age and a policy of early intervention
Proposals
We have arranged our proposals into 5 Programmes of Action as follows:
. Literacy and Numeracy, Family Support and Nurturing Programme
. Early Intervention
. Targeted at those who need it most
. A Community of Schools
. Expand the Foyle Learning Community to include primary schools
. A Forum for sharing best practice
. A School Leadership Programme
. A Virtual Learning Environment
. Expansion of HE Provision
. Increase in University Provision by 5,400 FTEs to 9,400 (2,000 – 6,000 MaSN)
. Increase in HE MaSN @ NWRC from 750 – 1,500
. A Centre of Excellence in Arts Practice and Creative Technologies
. Institutes of Health & Well Being and Sustainability
. 20 new Research Chairs
. Strategy for Skills Escalation
. A Skills Strategy
. A Skills Directorate to develop, drive and monitor the Strategy
. An Enhanced School Employer Visits Programme
. An Apprenticeship Programme around Regeneration Projects
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. A Public Works Programme
. Tracking System
. Supports increased accountability
. Tracks people from early years into the workplace
. Allows for better targeting to those who need most help
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Enterprise and Employment
Inequalities, Needs, Challenges and Opportunities
Levels of unemployment and economic inactivity remain high in Derry~Londonderry with 5,063 currently unemployed (7.3%) as well as approximately 9,000 (28%) classified as economically inactive. There also appears to be a „third generation of poverty‟ prevalent in many parts of the City, whereby children are born into families where both their parents and grandparents were unemployed. A key challenge for the City is to move up the value chain as wage levels remain 10% lower than elsewhere in NI.
Whilst the area contains highly successful enterprises including both multi-national and indigenous enterprises such as Seagate, Fujitsu, Singularity and E&I Engineering it does however also possess the lowest proportion of Small-Medium Enterprises (SMEs) in Northern Ireland as well as the lowest level of new business start-ups. Both Foreign Direct Investment and Indigenous Enterprise will continue to play an important part in the development of the enterprise sector within the City-region.
Despite these current conditions there remains a clear potential for growth within the City particularly with respect to the opportunities that „Project Kelvin‟ can create in the telecommunications and associated sectors including the development of complementary enterprises in the area of digital media including the production of digital media content. In addition to this there remains further potential to increase inward investment, maximise the benefits from the tourism sector and riverside developments as well as the opportunities that can be exploited if the University is further developed and expanded.
The existence of the C-TRIC centre also provides opportunities for the development of sustainable high-value added employment in concert with the University of Ulster‟s plans to develop Institutes for Sustainable Technologies and Health and Well Being.
Derry~Londonderry‟s location close to the border endows it with advantages relating to the relative benefits of both taxation regimes and these must be fully exploited in order to ensure complete and sustainable regeneration of the complete City-region.
The City-region‟s location also makes it an outstanding area for the development of sustainable technologies and an exemplar „Green Region‟.
The City-region will benefit from the inclusion of the rural area in the regeneration programme and all proposals will be rural proofed accordingly.
We will require strong support from the other SWGs to realise this plan.
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Vision
“To become a globally recognised entrepreneurial City-region, offering quality sustainable employment opportunities to all residents and a world class location for inward investors and tourists alike”
Priorities
To narrow the gap and inequalities in employment and enterprise in Derry~Londonderry we will contribute towards the Regeneration Plan‟s Objectives of:
. creating 15,000 jobs by 2020
. Increase the resident employment rate to the NI average
. Ensuring that no ward has a resident employment rate less than 50%
. Enhancing the skills base of those currently unemployed;
. Increase the performance of further and higher education as economic drivers;
. Reduce the high levels of economic inactivity by tackling the attitudinal issues around low take-up for learning and employment especially self-employment.
. Accelerate the development of the City-region economy making it „outward looking‟
In doing so we will create an innovative City which is entrepreneurial, maximising opportunities in areas such as the Digital sector, including those arising from Project Kelvin, and those arising from the emerging Sustainability Sector. We will explore new models of co-operative business development and ensure that these economic opportunities are made available to the citizens through pro-active personal development programmes. We will ensure that principles of sustainability and rural-proofing are embodied in our plan.
Proposals
We will support the development and growth of higher value added jobs and businesses in the
City –region through provision of a supportive environment for growth; we will enhance the skill base of the City‟s residents to reduce the high levels of economic activity and „low take-up‟ of employment and learning and encourage access into the world of work by:
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Skills and Development
. Implementing Personal Development Programmes (PDPs) linked to skills and training which will be flexible and suitable to be customized to the needs of individuals and their communities.
. Increase number of Social Benefit Clauses within local contracts to enhance skills and experience of unemployed and economically inactive within city in order to maximise the social and economic impact of capital spending programmes
. Developing capacity to capitalise on changes in future industrial skills and sectors for economic growth in Science, Technology, Engineering and Mathematics subject (STEM) areas; and
. Expanding university places to cater for between 8,000 and 10,000 full time students within the city.
. Accelerate the development of the C-TRIC facility to advance the city as an innovative city
. Creating a Confederation of Sector Specific Innovation Centres to develop and grow the next generation of indigenous businesses.
. Focusing on Fort George as a world class knowledge/innovation hub; and
. Implementing a Business Enterprise Development Programme in conjunction with the relevant agencies, tailored to the needs of the City;
. Working with schools and colleges to expand awareness and levels of entrepreneurship
. Fostering co-operative business development through the adoption of proven models.
Digital
. Creating the optimum high bandwidth access for Small and Medium Enterprises (SME) and all domestic users (especially those most deprived) through existing providers or through the development of a Metropolitan Area Network for the City;
. Supporting the development of data centres and other industries that can exploit the opportunities arising from Project Kelvin;
. Providing a supportive environment for business involved in the production of digital media content;
. Creating on Ebrington a centre for tourism arts and culture with a facility to nurture the development of digital content business in the creative sector;
. Working with existing enterprises to move up the value chain through collaborative effort, including mentoring, and staff training to enable them to expand their market share locally, regionally and internationally utilising digital technology; and
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. Encouraging the development of online public services through a Digital City.
Sustainability
. Promoting, developing and implementing sustainable energy technologies through a „Green New Deal approach;
. Actively facilitating and supporting the development of the Sustainable Social Economy; and
Attitudes
. Creating a positive and proactive environment to gain employment; and
. Having an integrated, single plan, carefully managed, supported by all of the players at a local and national level
Outward looking
. Creating dedicated investment initiatives, in partnership with government agencies, linking with Diaspora programme to promote the City region internally and externally and work pro-actively to maximise opportunities as they present themselves to the City; and
. Building upon the expertise generated by an expanded university and the Innovation Centres to promote the region as a centre for innovative, knowledge-based businesses.
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Tourism, Arts, Culture and Leisure
Challenges and Opportunities
Levels of tourism within the North-West region have been consistently lower than other parts of Northern Ireland in recent years with just over 149,000 trips to Derry~Londonderry in 2007. This compares negatively with approximately 883,000 trips to the Causeway Coast and Glens area. In addition to this Northern Ireland generated £509.9 million in tourist spending in 2007, representing 11% of all tourism revenues generated on the island of Ireland. Of this spend, only £28 million or 6% was spent in the Derry City District Council area. This is despite the fact that in the „walled city‟ Derry~Londonderry has a visitor attraction of international repute and one of five signature tourism projects identified by the Northern Ireland Tourist Board.
Tourism is a primer growth sector for Derry~Londonderry, however, while steps have been taken by bodies including the NITB and Tourism Ireland and the Derry Visitor Convention Bureau, much more needs to be done to address underperformance and to fully maximise the tourism potential in terms of inward visitor spend, local employment and new investment.
The Signature Tourism Project, the river and Ebrington project have significant potential in terms of developing and diversifying the City‟s tourism offering and positioning it as a “Signature Destination”. Derry~Londonderry‟s Tourism Strategy and Action Plan 2009-2012 highlights the River Foyle and riverside as the most underused of the City‟s strategic assets. This again demonstrates the range of assets that can be maximised and developed from a tourism perspective.
In addition much untapped potential remains in the use and promotion of the existing arts and cultural attractions more effectively as well as capitalising on the rich sporting talent that the City has to offer.
Vision „A City of historic distinction with diversity and vibrancy in arts, culture and leisure for all ‟
Priorities
To increase the tourism economy and maximise the benefits of arts, culture, leisure and sport to the lifestyle and opportunity for the people of Derry~Londonderry we will:
. Establish Derry~Londonderry as the leading heritage destination on the Island of Ireland.
. Boost Derry~Londonderry‟s reputation and position as a leading cultural & Arts destination;
. Establish Derry~Londonderry as the tourism destination of the North West;
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. Establish Derry~Londonderry as a City of sport and leisure.
Empowerment
. We recognise and support the considerable insights and values brought to our city and all our sectors through Education (Role of the University and higher education colleges) training, up- skilling, capacity building and the empowerment this confers in bridging people into employment and enterprise, contributing to the city‟s competitiveness and high performance and to building sustainable economic growth
Proposals
We will boost the City‟ reputation and position as a leading cultural & Arts destination by:
. Securing City of Culture designation for 2013 and develop a cultural tourism strategy so as to create a legacy of festivals and events of local, national and international importance;
. Securing a beacon anchor project for Ebrington that will strengthen the City as the cultural capital of the north-west and bring downstream benefits;
. Creating a Cultural Partnership Forum with cross border, regional and international arts linkages; and
. Increase engagement with education in formal and non-formal ways through community empowerment.
We will establish Derry~Londonderry as the leading tourism destination of the North West by:
. Complete the current Signature Tourism Project and transform into a Signature Destination Project incorporating the current and planned initiatives and investments in product development.
. Processing the application for UNESCO World Heritage Status and using branding and international publicity when World Heritage Status can be obtained
. Improving and unifying the institutional framework and resources with an immediate boost on marketing and visitor servicing;
. Implementing the medium – long term objectives of the Tourism Strategy – „Focus on the Future‟;
. Creating and maintaining special links to London and the global Derry~Londonderry Diaspora;
. Introducing the new brand and branded approach for Derry~Londonderry; and
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. Developing the “Evening and Night Economy” in conjunction with the arts, culture. food and beverage sectors and retailers.
We will establish Derry~Londonderry as a City of sport and leisure by:
. Implementing a comprehensive sport and leisure strategy to establish a new growth niche for the City;
. Investing in infrastructure (hard and soft) for leisure and sport at school, community, club, regional and elite levels; and
. Development of an all weather sports stadium and leisure complex
. Improving participative structures and partnerships for the development, management and shared use of leisure and sport at local level.
We will establish Derry~Londonderry as a leading heritage destination on a regional, national and international stage by:
. Filling gaps within the wider heritage product and developing and linking themes including early Christian, Plantation, Siege, Industrial, transport, maritime and contemporary/political - and service areas including archives and genealogy.
. Improving strategic development, integration and communications within the heritage sector by developing a heritage forum and heritage strategy;
. Building capacity across the heritage sector by increasing access to training/employment; by implementing professional guidelines with regards collections care; and through raising standards of visitor services;
. Encouraging audience development through a range of projects including targeted formal and non-formal learning programmes and activities; and
. Redevelopment of partnership approach to management and promotion of the built environment, placing it at the heart of the regeneration of the city and region.
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Marketing the Derry Opportunity
Inequalities, Needs Challenges and Opportunities
Effective and targeted marketing is a critical aspect to the success of initiatives and strategies across all cities. Derry~Londonderry has been the subject of much negative press over the years and as such has presented many difficulties in terms of promoting those attractions that it has had to offer.
Despite this, there is now an appreciation of the importance of marketing strategies to promote the City as a centre for business, tourism, education, retail and culture. Derry~Londonderry has embarked on an ambitious strategy to capitalise upon the uniqueness of the City, its character, vibrancy and its creativity. The aim is to develop an international image, reputation and experience to provide differentiation from its competitors.
From the business and consumer perspective it is essential that the City provides a welcoming, distinctive, vibrant, inclusive, confident and world-class experience, and the existing branding strategy aims to ensure that this is realised as well as moving the City up the league table from its current lowly ranking.
Vision
“From the consumer and business perspective, Derry~Londonderry will provide a City experience that is welcoming, distinctive, vibrant, creative, inclusive, confident and world class. This will help us achieve a step-change in the City‟s competitive position through higher market performance and improved reputation”.
Priorities
To achieve a step-change in the City‟s competitive position we will:
. Provide a quality experience for all audiences;
. Build distinctiveness to match market performance; and
. Identify best prospects for markets and customers and deliver excellence in the marketing performance.
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Proposals
We will provide a quality experience for all audiences by:
. Implementing an ambassador programme that connects young people, Diaspora, citizen and media to understand the City‟s ambition and their role in a successful future;
. Developing a co-ordinated welcome programme that drives standards and shares experiences; and
. Providing a programme that extends the variety and choice of daytime and evening time attractions in the City;
We will build distinctiveness to match market performance by:
. Identifying quantifiable successes that demonstrate distinctiveness;
. Understanding our competitive position with other cities;
. Developing a showcase initiative to highlight achievement and successes;
. Implementing a skills programme linked to the digital economy;
. Achieving City of Culture status and hosting other quality events programmes;
. Enhancing the outdoor space and developing an evening economy programme;
. Building creativity and confidence in all the City‟s residents;
. Investing in the river and the City‟s natural and environmental assets;
. Developing a cluster programme to build sustainability; and
. Developing outward connections.
We will deliver excellence in the City‟s marketing experience by:
. Performing research to demonstrate change in market share and develop a segmentation model;
. Improving the use of new technology and CRM systems matching media choice to customer groups; . Developing events and initiatives to make the City more welcoming for families;
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. Identifying opportunities for shared trade platforms and initiatives for tourism, investment and education; and
. Providing a „one-stop-shop‟ for marketing, experience and strategic connections to product development.
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Transport and Infrastructure
Inequalities, Needs, Challenges and Opportunities
Derry~Londonderry, like the rest of Northern Ireland, has had a dependence on the use of the motor vehicle. In 2007, 84% of the Northern Ireland labour force travelled to work either by car, van or minibus. A commitment to invest in high quality and affordable public transport is required in both Derry~Londonderry and Northern Ireland to address this imbalance in order to ease congestion in urban centres and to make such centres more attractive for commercial investment and the general consumer.
As a starting point, the SWG used the draft Integrated Transport Study as the basis for analysing the sector. Following a review of the baseline information a number of deficiencies were identified. The main ones being:
. Notable deficiencies in public transport such as lack of cross linked services, poor interchange facilities, remote rail station, limited P&R and poor evening services.
. Increasing congestion and reliance on the private car.
. Parking management and facilities for both cars and cycles.
. Lack of integration within and between modes.
. Lack of investment in sustainable modes.
. Access and connectivity to, from and within the region.
The Citi-Scope Survey with all 16 Section 75 focus groups highlighted at least one transport issue. Some of the issues identified included:
. Poor or no services to key facilities
. Poor night time services
. Insufficient public transport – cannot go across the city
The SWG identified a number of opportunities in relation to transport:
. Reduce congestion and reliance on the private car;
. Create an integrated public transport system;
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. Promote safe and sustainable modes of transport;
. Enhance access and connectivity to, from and within the region
Vision
“The City will have an integrated whole system approach to transport and infrastructure which provides the foundation to achieve sustainable economic and social development and growth improving the quality of life for all”.
Key Projects
A number of projects have been developed which will make a transformational change to the city and region over the lifetime of the Regeneration Plan.
The projects are:
. A5 and A6 and the Atlantic Corridor routes
. Orbital Link with 3rd Road Bridge
. Upgrade of the Rail Line and Rolling Stock
. QBCs and Feeder Services (taxis and buses)
. Implementation of Walking and Cycling Masterplan
Actions: short term – within 12 months:
. A5 and A6 (to include Atlantic Corridor)
. Public Inquiry completed . Orbital Link with 3rd Road Bridge
. Appointment of consultants . Upgrade of Rail Line & Rolling Stock
. Feasibility, design and costings for route and rolling stock improvements . QBCs and Feeder Taxi Services
. Feasibility, design and costings for a QBC route
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. Implementation of Walking and Cycling Masterplan
. Development of Safer Routes to Schools . Cycle parking provision . Pilot public cycle hire scheme . Improve linkages across Foyle Expressway . Develop plan leading to removal of Queen‟s Quay car park
* Subject to more detailed feasibility, economic and operational assessment
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Actions: medium term – 2 to 4 years:
. A5 and A6 (to include Atlantic Corridor)
. Approved subject to satisfactory progress through the statutory process . Economic appraisal . Funding secured . Work commenced and completed
. Orbital Link with 3rd Road Bridge
. Feasibility, design and costings
. Upgrade of the Rail Line & Rolling Stock
. Improved speed and journey times . Commuter service to Belfast . Feasibility study for Western Corridor Linkages . Feasibility of CODA realignment and halt
. Quality Bus Corridors (QBCs) and Feeder Taxi Services
. Bus priority measures . Real Time Information . QBC . Trial of Orbital Service . Cross linked services . Additional P&R
. Implementation of Walking and Cycling Masterplan
. Completion of Walking and Cycling Masterplan and associated support infrastructure . Further pedestrian improvements in Walled City
Actions: long term – 5 years+
. Bus only bridge
. Feasibility, design and costings
* Subject to more detailed feasibility, economic and operational assessment
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City Region Assets
Vision
“To develop assets such that they create the foundation upon which equality can be promoted and such that they provide the City with what it needs to become a sustainable regional capital”.
Summary of SWG Proposals and Priorities
Our challenge is to go beyond „floor space‟ as a measure of success. It‟s about working the connect between physical development of assets to bring about social and economic regeneration and community benefit. Our challenge is to work assets to achieve the maximum impact and re-invent Derry~Londonderry‟s Regional City Role.
In order to achieve this, the SWG has developed a new spatial understanding of the City based ona network of functional clusters. The clusters represent a set of diverse opportunities to develop the city‟s physical assets on an area-by-area basis, which when taken together, provide the basis for the long-term development of Derry~Londonderry as a Core Regional City. The SWG has developed a series of maps of the clusters, illustrating their location, extent, character, connectivity and spatial arrangement. The clusters referred to in the table below represent the SWG‟s view as to the locations where we feel the most tangible physical opportunities exist in order to promote the future development of the City. The Spatial Framework which the mapping illustrates also provides a physical template within which the projects and proposals of other SWGs can be given a physical locus.
Underpinning Elements Spatial Clusters Development Opportunities (these should form the basis of a new area plan and change in planning policy)
Equality: Walled City Cluster:
Across all the spatial clusters, ensure that Realise the potential of the heritage assets, and development promotes equality of opportunity reinforce the existing cultural and arts quarter, as using all measures necessary, as a means of well as encouraging a wider mix of uses and tackling deprivation in disadvantaged areas activities, including living spaces and tourism. and, among people who are the most vulnerable and the most in need within Section 75 categories.
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Sustainability: Place Making and Central Core (city centre) Cluster: Urbanism: Regenerate the commercial, cultural, and social Across all spatial clusters, to drive up urban function of the city centre, putting the central core at quality across the City to achieve ever higher the heart of Derry‟s competitiveness, and address standards of design of buildings, new and the imbalance between the northern and southern existing neighbourhoods, public spaces and ends of the city centre. areas of special character. This might include the establishment of a City Design Panel to assess major strategic projects. Also to promote the issue of design and urbanism through the nurturing of sustainable planning principles applied across the City to include a Strategic City-wide Urban Design Framework and a specific Urban Design Action Plan for the City Centre.
Sustainability: Carbon-neutral Campsie Strategic Corridor: Development:
Across all the spatial clusters, insist upon Reinforce the corridor‟s strategic employment role – carbon-neutral development in buildings and especially in terms of inward, indigenous housing by standardising in policy the need for investment and job and business creation for the sustainable construction methods and most deprived and the most in need under Section materials, renewable energy sources for heat 75 – from Gransha, along the A2, to the City of and power, and the need for retrofitting Derry airport. existing public buildings and social housing.
Sustainability: Balanced Economy: Skeoge and Outer North Link Cluster:
Across all the spatial clusters, promote a Capitalise on the area‟s investment and road balanced economy whereby inward, infrastructure by promoting sustainable new and indigenous investment and job and business existing communities as well as any future plans for creation are given the same prominence as developing services within these communities, and other forms of investment. Inward, indigenous by encouraging inward, indigenous investment and investment and job and business creation job and business creation for the most deprived and should aim to: promote meaningful jobs and the most in need under Section 75, focused on the livelihoods, especially among the most Skeoge Industrial Park. deprived and the most in need under Section 75; reduce low-paid, low-skilled, and low value-adding jobs which drive the most deprived and the most in need under Section 75 into the black economy; seek opportunities which play to local strengths and make use of local resources; seek to bring community, social, and economic benefits.
* Subject to more detailed feasibility, economic and operational assessment
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Sustainability: Sustainable, Connected Higher and Further Education Cluster: Communities:
To apply best practice from other parts of the Facilitate the expansion of the University on the UK and Europe in respect of the creation of Foyle and Londonderry College site; and ensure sustainable communities in the planning and that the expansion will bring about a growth in development of new neighbourhoods and the student numbers, and will complement and regeneration of existing communities through integrate the economic regeneration proposals for the application of principles founded in the the city. Egan Wheel around Governance, Society and Culture, Housing and the Built Environment, Economy, Local Service Delivery, Equity, Environment, Energy and Climate Change and Transport and Connectivity. Specifically for Transport and Connectivity, to enhance public and accessible transport as a means of providing appropriate and affordable transport to residents – particularly the most deprived and the most in need under Section 75 – and to do so using the public transport system as well as alternative options such as the creation of community transport businesses, with consideration given to the taxi industry.
Funding Options and the Asset Register: Ebrington / St Columb‟s Park Quarter:
To develop a palette of funding propositions through the creation of an advanced financial Develop the quarter for a mix of commercial and architecture including a Public Asset Register, cultural uses, and use as a showcase of high a „Percent for Community‟ Policy, ring fencing quality design of new buildings and public space. receipts from public asset property developments and Joint Venture schemes with bespoke regeneration companies.
Free Derry Quarter:
Reinforce the position of the Free Derry Corner as a tourist and cultural destination, and promote the opportunity for indigenous job and business creation for the most deprived and the most in need under Section 75, in hospitality, catering, and visitor services. Further build upon and extend the existing private, and social / community enterprises in the area (e.g. Rath Mor Business Park, Creggan Country Park).
Clondermot and Corrody Road Cluster:
Develop a masterplan for Clondermot based on the findings of the Clondermot EQIA; and develop Corrody Road for social and community benefits.
* Subject to more detailed feasibility, economic and operational assessment
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Derry-Letterkenny Strategic Corridor:
Improve leisure provision at Templemore complex.
Pennyburn Fort George Cluster:
Prepare an area-based masterplan for the cluster area, and assess the future of Fort George in the short and long-term.
Foyle Valley Cluster:
Promote the development of the Brandywell Stadium in partnership with DCC and Triax; and promote the area as a riverside attraction and recreational space.
Clooney Cluster:
Facilitate the relocation of Foyle and Londonderry College and Ebrington Primary School, and enhance the local open space provision.
* Subject to more detailed feasibility, economic and operational assessment
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The River Asset
Inequalities, Needs Challenges and Opportunities
Current use of the river is very limited other than in respect to the economy of the Port. Because there is so little general use made of the river at present equality is little impacted as an issue. The river can and should be much more used. In particular the river has the capacity to perform critical functions in the Regeneration Plan:
. Delivering high levels of socially developmental sports, recreation and access to the countryside
. Opening up a new economic sector in marine leisure and tourism in synergy with the general tourism sector
. Transforming the image and profile of the city through physical development of the waterfront
Critical interventions will include the improvement of access along the riverside in the city and the countryside on Greenways and urban public realm, the enhancement of physical points of access to the river for marine leisure and recreation, the restructuring of river management to give integrated and focused management of the river and the riversides for leisure and tourism (Foyle Initiative) and the preparation of an urban waterfront Masterplan to positively direct riverside development towards realisation of the Vision.
Vision
“The river and its waterfronts will be the focal point of the City – it will be highly active with wide- ranging leisure and marine activities enjoyed by all its citizens and tourist alike and its banks will bustle with the life of the City. The river will be renowned for the excellence of its management as a tool for social and economic development and for its conserved ecological and environmental value”. “Imagine the City without the river”.
Priorities
To realise the Vision we will pursue the following strategic objectives:
. Develop the river as a broadly based, water related, leisure, recreation and sports resource with high availability of physical access and operated to ensure use by all sections of society and specifically the disadvantaged youth. . Achieve a high quality, safe and accessible public realm on riversides in town centre (and elsewhere)
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. Use the river as a means of connecting communities with the city and places of social amenity and economic activity and to use the river and its banks as a means of providing easy access to the countryside
. Grow the river economy in leisure, tourism and otherwise and so create employment
. Overcome the physical inadequacies of the urban riverfront and enable the use the river as a key element in the transformation of the social and economic value of the city-region.
. Achieve an intensification and integration of management of the river and riversides to actively drive the development of new socio-economic and economic uses of the river which contribute to the regeneration of Derry~Londonderry.
Proposals
We will achieve our strategic objectives by implementation of the following proposals:
. Greenways: Continuous routes north and south of the city on both banks (per Access Plan Derry~Londonderry 2009-2014) including rural and suburban visitor nodes and additional crossing points / ferry links
Greenway starter projects: New Bridge over Pennyburn, Path from Peace bridge to St Columb‟s Park (plus activity trail) and pedestrian/cycle use improvements on lower deck of Craigavon Bridge.
Priority Greenway Lengths: Pennyburn to Boom Hall (2km), Peace Bridge to Duke Street/ Craigavon Bridge (500m), and Peace Bridge to Gransha (3km)
. Prehen Boathouse: Refurbish boathouse and slip for club use and improve economic significance and sustainability of the building by including commercial or administrative use of upper floor.
. Tourist Boat: Trip boat operating from city-centre between Craigavon Bridge and Culmore with historical commentary and drop off/pick up at Culmore (new pontoon)
. Urban Design Plan: Preparation of Strategic Riverside masterplan to ensure excellence in future development of city riverfront.
. Foyle Initiative: Intensification and integration of management of the river and riversides in a specific initiative to actively drive the development of new socio-economic and economic uses of the river which contribute to the regeneration of Derry~Londonderry.
* Subject to more detailed feasibility, economic and operational assessment
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. Daisyfield Boat Project: Gateway development at Daiseyfield in association with Brandywell Project and include waterside recreational amenity such as schools boathouse or National Centre for Excellence in Water-sports
. Daisyfield Bridge: New footbridge between Daiseyfield and Prehen to link boating amenities and establish further loop to riverside Greenways
. Visitor Moorings: Chain of informal cruiser and yacht moorings on the river and Lough Foyle to allow easy cruising over long distances.
. Boat Access: Multiple informal and formal points of access to the river for boat-slipping, and canoe/dingy use.
. Riverside Realm: Continuous high quality riverside public realm throughout city
* Subject to more detailed feasibility, economic and operational assessment
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Environment & Conservation
Inequalities, Needs Challenges and Opportunities
The quality of our environment influences what we become and provides us with a sense of well being and identity. Environmental concerns are not an obstacle to economic development, regeneration, or promoting equality. Environmental sustainability is in fact closely bound up with the sustainability of our economic and social well-being. The priority actions aim to address sustainability, social need, and regeneration, simultaneously through the creation of green jobs that tackle pressing issues like fuel poverty and food poverty. The expectation of continuous conventional economic growth is now in question as we increasingly face the limits of the planet to meet our demand for energy and resources.
The following opportunities, strengths and challenges have been identified;
. As a region, we have a high dependence on imported fossil fuels for our energy needs and a disproportionately high carbon footprint despite having an abundance of renewable resources. Energy security is inextricably linked to food security. The region nonetheless has abundant underexploited renewable energy resources.
. The City Region also has a wealth of natural and cultural assets including an historic built heritage and archaeological features and a rich variety of natural habitats, some of which have been designated as Areas of Special Scientific Interest (ASSI), Special Protection Areas (SPA) and Areas of Outstanding Natural Beauty (AONB). These include the River Foyle which has shaped the City‟s past and will shape its future. This heritage is of immense value to local people and visitors alike however, these assets need to be recognised, protected and enhanced. The City has abundant green spaces that could benefit from strategic development for the benefit of all communities.
. The Citi-Scope survey noted that more than seventy per cent of residents are concerned about the environment and over a third of residents have taken action solely for environmental reasons in the last 12 months. The education system has an important role in developing citizenship education that raises awareness of sustainability issues and empowers people in the transition to a sustainable economy and lifestyle.
. While levels of waste recycling have increased in recent years, the need to further „reduce, reuse, recycle‟ will continue to present a challenge in meeting EU/UK environmental legislation. As well as maximising resource recovery and reuse, new waste management practices, processes, and technologies will also need to consider minimisation of greenhouse gases, and risk to public health.
* Subject to more detailed feasibility, economic and operational assessment
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Vision
“The City and its region will be a model of environmental protection and enhancement (both built and natural) and a far-reaching exemplar of a sustainable economy and local participation. It will foster biodiversity, guarantee the wellbeing of its inhabitants and support the cultural identity of its people”.
Priorities
To address inequalities and create a sustainable City region we will:
. Reduce the City region‟s dependency on imported fossil fuels and alleviate fuel poverty amongst its residents;
. Facilitate the transition to a low carbon sustainable City through development of regional renewable energy sources and technology and by promoting education for sustainability and awareness of all environmental issues such as biodiversity, waste and the built environment;
. Address the threat of food poverty by supporting the local food economy and reconnecting the City to its rural hinterland;
. Adopt and implement sustainable waste management practices to reduce the growth in waste arising and the amount of municipal waste going to landfill; and
. Protect and enhance the biodiversity of the region and beyond, delivering a healthy environment for people and wildlife to succeed in.
Proposals
We will reduce the City region‟s dependency on imported fossil fuels and alleviate fuel poverty amongst its residents by:
. Creating a regional Centre of Excellence for Renewable Energy, Research and Development
. Upgrading and retrofitting of the City region‟s existing buildings including roof & cavity wall insulation and renewable energy applications with targeted job creation through the creation of a „green‟ intermediate labour market;
. Implementing a Green Energy and Energy Efficiency Pilot Scheme project community including a biomass district heating (CHP) system with potential for cross community partnership and inclusion of schools, public buildings, businesses and local farmers;
* Subject to more detailed feasibility, economic and operational assessment
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. Setting up a Regional Energy Taskforce to address our reliance on fossil fuels and establish a roadmap to reduce energy consumption, generate heat & electricity from local, alternative energy sources and address the robustness of the existing energy infrastructure: and
. Ensuring that the City‟s physical assets are developed using sustainable technologies and applying energy efficient measures such as smart metering and solar panels.
We will facilitate the transition to a low carbon sustainable City by promoting education for sustainability and awareness of all environmental issues by:
. Setting up a North West Education for Sustainability Forum to provide a co-ordinated and integrated approach to providing sustainable education and raising awareness of environmental issues.
. Adoption of a „green campus‟ policy led by the Higher Education providers in the City focusing on curriculum, campus management, community and culture incorporating a regional R&D Institute for sustainable technologies.
. Encouraging and facilitating all schools within the City region to achieve „eco-schools‟ status with provision of school kitchen gardens and/or wildlife gardens.
We will address the threat of food poverty, supporting the local food economy and reconnect the City to its rural hinterland by:
. Adopting a strategic Urban Gardening Programme providing infrastructural support to turn green spaces in and around the City into allotments, community gardens and market gardens prioritising low income areas/groups.
. Implementing a local food economy programme to develop procurement of local produce, development of farmers markets and the expansion of horticultural training
. Adopting a cross border farmers support pilot scheme
. Implementing a food waste reduction programme
We will adopt and implement sustainable waste management practices including:
. Establishing reuse opportunities providing employment and training
. Creating R&D opportunities with regard to waste treatment technologies through the higher education sector and indigenous companies
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. Separate collections of food waste and garden waste for treatment through eg. composting, or anaerobic digestion (AR) facilities.
We will protect and enhance the biodiversity of the region and beyond, delivering a healthy environment for people and wildlife to succeed in by;
. Developing conservation apprenticeship schemes to develop skills within society and for young people to recognise the environmental sector as a potential career;
. Identifying, protecting and enhancing priority wildlife sites in the City and region; and
. Surveying and controlling key invasive species found in the City and region where possible.
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Citizenship and Civic Pride
Inequalities, Needs Challenges and Opportunities
“Effective Citizenship means, at its simplest, members of local communities being ready, willing and able to get involved in local issues. This is not simply about people having the opportunity to participate, but also about the skills, knowledge and confidence they need to take part”16. „Active Citizenship‟ emanates from an individual‟s relationship with the community, in which she/he lives. It summarises how we contribute to the greater good of all. In this City we have a long track record of people working for the common good, this is best demonstrated through the wide variety of social organizations which have been developed here through the years. People have contributed by their participation in a wide range of activities, from the formation of the Credit Union to the development of Tenants and Neighbourhood Associations through to more political activities such as involvement in Civil Rights campaigns, and the formation and membership of political parties. Indeed. for years this City has been referred to as the „cockpit of the troubles‟ which is a direct reference to the intense involvement of its citizens, particularly those from the worst deprived areas, in how decisions are made and for many years, and how these have been imposed on others. This is a City where engagement in meaningful processes whereby democracy is extended to be as inclusive as possible, is an everyday demand.
Locally, when we speak of „civic pride‟, we are usually referring to the strong feeling of identification we have for our city, our rural areas, our communities, and our neighbourhoods: a sense of belonging that exists at both an individual and a collective level. This sense of pride is also evident in the vibrant community and voluntary sector and in willingness of people to contribute directly and indirectly in local fund and awareness raising initiatives such as the 10001 Santa Appeal, the Foyle Hospice Fun Run and many, many other community events.
We are proud of our city and our communities. Our people regularly demonstrate many characteristics envied by others but there is always scope to do more. We acknowledge that, there are people and communities who do not share equally in our sense of civic pride and citizenship. In particular, there is evidence of the growing sense of the isolation of our older people and a disfranchisement of people, particularly younger people, who are living in deprived communities and who have experienced low employment and educational attainment levels, who have experienced poor health, and have low morale and expectations about their future.
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There is a strong sense of pride and resilience across local communities and there are opportunities to increase levels of cross community participation, for more people to take ownership and responsibility for resolving local issues and to be directly involved in making it a better, more prosperous place.
Vision
“A place where people are equal included, valued and respected. A place where people have rights and act responsibly. A place where people have the opportunity to participate. A place where people are proud to belong and feel safe”.
Priorities
To instill a sense of civic pride and promote citizenship we will:
. Increase participation;
. Build caring communities;
. Promote positive perceptions;
. Build a sense of pride in both place and self;
. Build respect and promote diversity; and
. Create opportunities.
Through promoting citizenship and civic pride, we will facilitate the development of empowered, informed & supported communities which will in turn enable people to create and maximise their opportunities with regard to employment, education, health, housing and other aspects of society.
Proposals
We will increase participation by:
In the short term:
. Auditing current volunteering activity and identifying gaps, and
. Lobbying for resources and changes in the benefits system to support voluntary activity.
In the medium term by:
. Developing and delivering volunteering interventions to enhance citizenship and civic pride.
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. Establishing a North West Civic Forum – incorporating a programme of events, public meetings and educational initiatives, and,
. Introducing a Civic £ scheme.
We will build respect and promote diversity by:
In the short term:
. Developing a citizenship, diversity and values education programme, that can be rolled out across all our pre, primary and secondary schools .
. Developing a series of community based, citizenship leadership training initiatives,
. Establishing a web based citizenship and civic pride educational and support resource which incorporates a repository of initiatives, good practice and information.
. Developing and promoting a Citizenship Charter for the area.
. Rolling out a programme of events for Local Democracy Week
. Introduce a „Diversity Month‟ to be held annually in September
In the medium term by:
. Set ting up and hosting an Annual Schools Convention.
. Developing and implementing a cross sectoral community engagement strategy.
. Establishing a Social Responsibility Programme.
. Undertaking a 3 Yearly Citizen Survey and collating continuous feedback via the Citizenship and Civic Pride web resource.
In the long term by:
. By providing mixed „Meeting Places for Pre, Primary and Secondary school children
We will build and harness a sense of pride in both place and self by:
In the short term:
. Implementing an „Open Art Galleries‟ Initiative.
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. Developing a „Tourism/Cultural Ambassadors‟ Scheme.
. Establishing a Citizens Trail – History and Cultural for local people.
. Addressing the Naming Issue, and
. Implementing an animation programme for the pedestrian/cycle bridge and interlinked areas
In the medium term, by:
. Holding an Annual Community Event.
We will build caring communities by:
In the short term:
. Designing, delivering and sustaining tailored interventions to promote inter-community support and engagement.
. Designing, delivering and sustaining a range of neighbour/citizen/community support initiatives including specific initiatives targeted at older people.
. Supporting on the streets youth outreach initiatives.
. Supporting community mediation initiatives
In the medium term by,
. Introducing a „CARES‟ programme based on the Chicago model.
. Designing and rolling out a Citizenship Education Programme, (including sustainability, equality and diversity).
We will promote positive perceptions by:
In the short term:
. Promoting existing recreational opportunities
. Undertaking a cross sectoral gap analysis and developing improvement strategy for recreational opportunities
. Establishing a cross political & cross sectoral concordat on job/ investment opportunities
. Promoting the availability of quality education opportunities
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. Developing & implementing a city centre safety plan
. Delivering a focused media campaign on promotion of city
. Developing & implementing a festivals & events strategy
. Establishing a cross sectoral Civic Pride Champions Group ( with dedicated resources) to manage the media and promote all good news emanating from the council area
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Health and Wellbeing
Inequalities, Needs, Challenges and Opportunities
The health and wellbeing of any population is inextricably linked with levels of poverty and disadvantage experienced by the residents and Derry~Londonderry is no exception. The socio- economic conditions in which people live and work can impact both positively and negatively on their health and social well-being. Almost 50% of children in the area have experienced poverty at some point over the last four years. Average life expectancy in the Council area is almost two years less than the Northern Ireland average for both males and females.
Poor socio-economic conditions demonstrate themselves in other ways:
. 1 in 10 children are regular smokers with an average start age of 11.8 years;
. 25% of 13-14 year olds surveyed have been drunk in the last 12 months; and
. Self harm rates in the City Council area are double those in the rest of the West.
The Marmot Review of Health Inequalities in England concluded that: “Health inequalities result from social inequalities and action on health inequalities requires action across all the social determinants of health.” The review also concluded that action to address health inequalities has important economic benefits by reducing the costs of illness.
The Regeneration Plan represents an opportunity to deal with these problems in an integrated way particularly given the recent designation of Derry~Londonderry as a Healthy City by the World Health Organisation which stresses the importance of:
. Creating caring and supporting environments;
. Healthy living; and
. Healthy urban environment and design.
Vision
“An environmentally friendly City that nurtures values and cares for all its citizens. A happy, healthy beautiful, safe, nurturing place where we can achieve our full potential and which equally values all citizens”.
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Priorities
To address the health inequalities in Derry~Londonderry we will:
. Develop Derry~Londonderry as an „Early Intervention City‟;
. Challenge and transform the current alcohol culture throughout the City;
. Stop the rise of obesity by promoting an active City;
. Promote positive more sustainable communities by eradicating poverty and tackling social injustice;
. Promote and improve mental health and wellbeing in all age groups; and
. Promote active aging.
Proposals
We will develop Derry~Londonderry as an Early Intervention City by:
. Establishing Derry~Londonderry as an early intervention City placing particular emphasis on the life chances of children, young people and families; and
. Agreeing an early intervention strategy and action plan and developing the Health and Social Care workforce and relevant community and voluntary partners to support early intervention
We will transform the current alcohol culture throughout the City by:
. Taking the lead in bringing about legislative change on the availability of alcohol; and
. Developing Derry~Londonderry as a lead City in Community Mobilisation on the issue of alcohol by strengthening existing partnerships and building on current best practice.
We will establish Derry~Londonderry an active City to stop the rise in obesity by;
. Challenging the prevailing culture of sedentary lifestyles, poor diet and lack of physical activity for all age groups;
. Designing and delivering health improvement programmes based on evidence based models of good practice in a settings based approach i.e.; schools, communities, workplaces etc; and
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. Promoting healthy lifestyles, active play and physical activity for all citizens and abilities through provision of accessible physical and sports activities in partnerships with statutory, community and voluntary partners.
We will promote positive and more sustainable communities by;
. Consolidating the work of initiatives such as „The Community Safety Partnership‟ and the development of emerging Community Safety Forums; and
. Enhancing the safety and security of citizens by ensuring the planning and design of neighbourhoods allows for social interaction, recreation and community cohesion.
We will promote and improve mental health and wellbeing in all age groups by:
. Developing Derry~Londonderry as the lead City in reducing the incidence and impact of mental and emotional distress, mental ill health, suicide and self harm.
. Identifying at an early stage those individuals at risk through initiatives such as the Self Harm register and Community Response Programmes;
. Promoting positive changes and attitudes towards people who experience mental health problems and illness; and
. Removing the stigma associated with mental illness through community awareness campaigns around positive messages about mental health and well-being.
We will promote active ageing by:
. Recognising and promoting older people as a valuable resource by developing best practice initiatives around active ageing to delay the onset of later years illness and disability;
. Developing a Charter of Rights for older people to underpin service delivery to improve access to and delivery of services; and
. Increasing investment in domiciliary care and home support to facilitate and encourage independent living
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Children and Young People
Inequalities, Needs Challenges and Opportunities
The key challenge is that in relation to child indicators in the areas of health, safety, education, economic and environmental wellbeing, Derry~Londonderry is not the best place to grow up in. There is a correlation between family income and negative outcomes. This means that children and young people in poorer families encounter multiple challenges to their holistic development from an early age. This systemic inequality perpetuates cycles of poverty through generations. The view of the Children and Young People's SWG is that in order to address this systemic inequality the needs and rights of children and young people must be central to the process of each SWG and this commitment to children and young people should be evidenced in interventions which will make a positive impact on their lives. The Regeneration plan provides a key opportunity to address these issues through:
. Implementing a Child Rights based approach which is focused on addressing inequalities.
. Focusing resources and effort on Early Intervention
Implementing a Child Rights based approach- UNICEF Child Friendly Communities
A 2007 UNICEF report - „Child Poverty in Perspective: An Overview of Child Well-being in Rich Countries' - measured and compared overall child well-being across six dimensions: maternal well- being, health and safety, education, peer and family relationships, behaviours and risks, and young people‟s subjective sense of their own well-being. Out of 21 industrialised countries in the report, the UK ranked worst overall when the indicators were aggregated together.
UNICEF's Child Friendly Communities initiative was launched to try to address that finding, and to make children‟s rights a reality in the UK. The initiative aims to realise and embed child rights at the local level, improving the well-being of children and young people. Derry~Londonderry has been identified by UNICEF as the first community in NI to pilot the initiative and one of 12 identified communities in the UK.
Focusing Resources and Effort on Early Intervention
Recent research has focused on examining early care and education initiatives as public investments. Many policymakers have considered early education initiatives as a school readiness strategy or as a way to close the achievement gap. Now, economic experts are offering another reason: mounting evidence shows that investments in early education may be considered as an economic development strategy.
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This summary highlights three reports: the first from Art Rolnick, Senior Vice President and Director of Research at the Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank; the second from James Heckman, Nobel Prize winner in economics from the University of Chicago; and the latest report from the High/Scope Educational Research Foundation on the longitudinal study of the Perry Preschool Program. This study evidences the impact of high quality early care and education on low income three and four year olds showing that adults at age 40, who participated in a pre-school programme in their early years, have: . Higher earnings;
. Are more likely to hold a job;
. Committed fewer crimes; and
. Are more likely to have graduated from high school.
Early Intervention programmes have the potential, therefore, to ensure that Derry~Londonderry can become a healthy, happy and safe place to be born and grow up in.
Vision
“This City and district will provide the opportunities for every child and young person to reach their full potential and will be the best place to be born and grow up in”
Priorities
To realise a Child Friendly Community that provides all children and young people with an environment where they can prosper we will work on 7 outcome areas to make Derry~Londonderry:
. A healthy, happy place;
. A safe community;
. A place to enjoy and learn;
. A place that children and young people feel part of;
. A community where rights are real;
. A place where every child and family has enough; and
. An environment with space to grow.
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The processes that are essential to inform these priorities are to
. Support the ongoing participation of children and young people using the 'Re-Generation-Children and Young People First' process and methodology.
. Establish structures for accountability to and performance measurement of the Mark II Regeneration Plan by children and young people.
. Child-proof interventions developed by other SWGs to ensure that these make a positive impact on the most disadvantaged children and young people and that they have a focus on Early Intervention.
. Develop tangible interventions that will make a difference, informed by the issues identified by children and young people in the 'Re-Generation-Children and Young People First' participation and engagement process.
Proposals
The following are the three 'big ideas' emerging from the work of the Children and Young Peoples' SWG and its engagement with children and young people:
. A Child Friendly Community as recognised by UNICEF, which puts the participation of children and young people at the heart of decision making.
. An Early Intervention City- delivering early intervention services and programmes needed to improve health and social care outcomes for children and young people.
. Spaces to Grow, Places to Go- Access to places and spaces to play, meet, create, live and learn which are accessible, safe and where children and young people are welcomed as equal citizens
The background and rationale for these proposals has been informed by a number of pieces of work the SWG has undertaken:
. The „Re-Generation Children and Young People First‟ Participation Process and report (Output report available upon request)
. The UNICEF Child Friendly Community Action plan
. 'Quad' meeting to establish common principles with Health, Education and City Regional Assets SWGs
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Successful Neighbourhoods
Inequalities, Needs Challenges and Opportunities
In general, the majority of residents who took part in the Citi-Scope survey were positive about their local neighbourhood and a strong sense of belonging to Derry~Londonderry.
Nevertheless there are significant inequalities which exist within the City in terms of community relations, community development, access to services and community safety. In addition to this much more needs to be done to sufficiently address anti-social behaviour within many communities, with a quarter of local residents in the most deprived wards reporting teenagers “hanging around the streets”, with attendant issues of vandalism and drunkenness.
Community relations, particularly in terms of relations with, for example, minority groups, are an area which needs improved within the City. The Citi-Scope data highlights important issues with respect to community cohesion in that more than half did not consider Derry~Londonderry a friendly place for Protestants, ethnic communities or gay and lesbian people.
Vision
In 5 years time:
“The most immediate needs and striking inequalities that exist within and between neighbourhoods will have begun to be practically addressed. In particular this will mean: improved access to services; beginning to raise aspirations; starting to address social and educational barriers to employment and more inclusive, diverse, peaceful and successful neighbourhoods”.
In 20 years time:
“Our neighbourhoods will be attractive, safe, diverse, inclusive, peaceful and sustainable places, occupied by healthy, actively engaged citizens who have the capacity to access social, cultural and economic opportunities. Inequalities will have been addressed, aspirations raised and poverty tackled”.
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Priorities
To address the issues and inequalities within and between the City‟s neighbourhoods we will:
. Ensure that the creation and maintenance of successful neighbourhoods, and improvements in the quality of life of their residents, are underpinned by a sufficient provision of adequate high quality, accessible housing;
. Increase awareness of, and access to, quality public and community service provision in the most deprived or isolated neighbourhoods and groups;
. Create and maintain safe, attractive, peaceful and inclusive neighbourhoods where residents and the public, from all backgrounds, feel secure and welcome; and
. Develop and sustain confident communities with the capacity, commitment and vision to improve the quality of life for all in their neighbourhood.
Proposals
We will enhance the provision of high quality accessible housing by:
. Improving and seeking to eradicate spatial inequalities in housing conditions;
. Tacking spatial and sectional inequalities in the access to affordable housing and access to housing advice and assistance; and
. Promoting the role of housing in supporting regeneration and economic development initiatives.
We will increase the awareness of and access to community service provision by:
. Creating and managing a directory of physical and human resources;
. Producing and making available a number of culturally sensitive local brochures setting out key services in each area;
. Identifying gaps in service provision and physical infrastructure with a view to addressing them and building upon existing services;
. Improving and developing play provision in areas without provision; and
. Considering ways to fully utilise green spaces.
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We will create safe, attractive, peaceful and inclusive communities by:
. Developing a coordinated multi-agency structure to address community safety issues and ultimately reduce crime, the fear of crime and antisocial behaviour;
. Develop an open and accountable partnership between the community, voluntary and statutory sectors which ensures that rights are upheld in order to maintain a safe, just and equitable community for everyone; and
. Sustain and develop capacity and implement programmes for challenging prejudice and promotion of Good Community Relations at neighbourhood level.
We will enhance community capacity by:
. Investigating the feasibility of a Community Allowance to provide financial gain on top of benefits for work that assists the local community;
. Developing and maintaining a Citywide volunteers database;
. Identifying and improving key area based services which will contribute to improved education and social skills based on needs assessment in individuals and communities; and
. Holding an annual community awards ceremony to celebrate excellence in communities
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SWG Actions: Long-list to short List
The actions and delivery approaches proposed by the 12 SWG have been collated in a „Long List‟ as outlined [over leaf / in Figure 1]. On review of this list, it became apparent that many of the actions proposed were identified by more than one SWG and also, in many instances, actions could reasonably be grouped together under one overarching programme. In addition some proposed actions, while extremely important, were more akin to aspirations rather than actionable initiatives. As a result, in order to integrate the actions proposed by the SWGs and to identify the key actions that will enable, drive and achieve transformational change, a matching and filtering process was applied to the initial long list of 189 SWG actions. This included an exercise to identify those actions which are:
. Shortlisted actions/programmes (SL);
. Considered to be a Delivery Approach (DA);
. Duplicated by another action (DL);
. Considered to be a component part of a wider programme (CP); and
. Not considered to be specific actionable interventions (NI).
The key output from this process is a long list of actions with each having been allocated one of the five codes above as outlined overleaf and, where a priority is considered to be a duplicate or component part of another, a reference number is included to show the link between these actions. This allows the list to be sorted to highlight a condensed list of collaborative actions and programmes which encompass the combined output from the SWGs. This shortened list is outlined in [Figure 2]
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Long List of Actions identified by SWGs (Figure 1)
Actions Ref Allocation Link
Education and skills
Literacy and Numeracy, Family Support and Nurturing Programme: Early SL intervention and targeted at those who need it most 1
A Community of Schools Programme: • Expand the Foyle Learning Community to include primary schools • Create a Forum for Best Practice SL • Create a School Leadership Programme; and • A Virtual Learning Environment 2
Expansion of the HE Provision: • Increase in University Provision by 5,400 FTEs to 9,400 (2,000 – 6,000 MaSN) • Increase in HE MaSN @ NWRC from 750 – 1,500 SL • A Centre of Excellence in Arts Practice and Creative Technologies • Institutes of Health & Well Being and Sustainability • 20 new Research Chairs 3
Strategy for Skills Escalation including: • A Skills Strategy • A Skills Directorate to develop, drive and monitor the Strategy DA • An Enhanced School Employer Visits Programme • An Apprenticeship Programme around Regeneration Projects • A Public Works Programme 4
A Tracking System which: • Supports increased accountability SL • Tracks people from early years into the workplace • Allows for better targeting to those who need most help 5
Enterprise and employment
Implement Personal Development programmes linked to skills and training which will be flexible and suitable to be customised to the needs of individuals and their communities 6 SL
Developing capacity to capitalise on changes in future industrial skills and sectors for economic growth in STEM areas 7 SL
Expanding the university campus to cater for between 8,000 and 10,000 full time students 8 DL 3
Creating a Confederation of Sector Specific Innovation Centres to develop and grow the next generation of indigenous businesses 9 SL
Focus on Fort George as a world class knowledge/innovation hub 10 SL
Implement a bespoke Business Enterprise Development Programme in conjunction with the relevant agencies tailored to the needs of the city 11 DA
Fostering Co-operative business development through the development of proven models 12 SL
Working with schools to further develop awareness of entrepreneurship 13 DL 4
Increase the number of Social Benefit Clauses within local contracts to enhance skills and experience of unemployed and economically inactive within the city in order to maximise the social and economic impact of capital spending programmes 14 SL
Accelerate the development of the C-TRIC facility to advance the City as an 15 SL
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Actions Ref Allocation Link innovative city
Create the optimum high bandwidth access for Small and Medium Enterprises (SME) and the domestic user on the island through existing providers or through the development of a Metropolitan Area Network for the City 16 SL
Support the Development of Data Centres and other industries that can exploit the opportunities arising from Project Kelvin 17 SL
Provide a supportive environment for business involved in the production of digital media content 18 NI
Working with existing enterprises to move up the value chain through collaborative effort, including mentoring, and staff training to enable them to expand their market share locally, regionally and internationally utilising global technology 19 SL
Creating on Ebrington a centre for tourism, arts and culture with a facility to nurture the development of digital content business in the creative sector 20 SL
Encouraging the development of online public services through a digital city 21 DL 124
Promoting developing and implementing sustainable energy technologies through a Green New Deal approach 22 CP 104
Actively facilitating and supporting the development of the Sustainable Social Economy 23 NI
Creating a positive and proactive environment to gain employment 24 NI
Having an integrated single plan carefully managed and supported by all of the players at local and national level 25 DA
Creating dedicated investment initiatives, in partnership with government agencies, linking with Diaspora programme to promote the City region internally and externally and work pro-actively to maximise opportunities as they present themselves to the City 26 DL 47
Building upon the expertise generated by an expanded university and the Innovation Centres to promote the region as a centre for innovative, knowledge- based businesses 27 SL
Tourism, arts culture and leisure
Securing City of Culture designation for 2013 and develop a cultural tourism strategy so as to create a legacy of festivals and events of local, national and international importance 28 SL
Creating a Cultural Partnership Forum with cross border and regional arts linkages 29 DA
Increase engagement with education in formal and non formal ways through community empowerment 30 CP 1,2
Securing a beacon anchor project for Ebrington that will strengthen the City as the capital of the North West and bring downstream benefits 31 SL
Complete the current Signature Tourism Project and transform into a Signature Destination Project incorporating the current and planned initiatives and investments in product development 32 DL 20
Processing the application for UNESCO World Heritage Status and using branding and international publicity when World Heritage Status can be obtained 33 CP 42
Improving and unifying the institutional framework and resources with an immediate boost on marketing and visitor servicing 34 DL 64
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Actions Ref Allocation Link
Implementing the medium - long term objectives of the Tourism Strategy: 'Focus on the Future' 35 SL
Creating and maintaining special links to London and the global Derry Diaspora 36 CP 47
Introducing the new brand and branded approach for Derry~Londonderry 37 DL 64
Developing the Evening and Night Economy in conjunction with the arts, culture, food and beverage sectors and retailors 38 DL 49
Implementing a comprehensive sport and leisure strategy to establish a new growth niche for the city 39 DA
Investing in the infrastructure for leisure and sport at school, community, club, regional and elite levels 40 SL
Improving participative structures and partnerships for the development and management and shared use of leisure and sport at local level 41 DA
Filling gaps within the wider heritage product and developing and linking themes including early Christian, Plantation, Seige, Industrial, transport, maritime and contemporary political - and service areas including archives and genealogy 42 SL
Improving strategic Development, integration and Communications within the heritage sector by developing a heritage forum and heritage strategy 43 DA
Building capacity across the heritage sector by increasing access to training/employment; by implementing professional guidelines with regards to collections care and through raising standards of visitor services 44 SL
Encouraging audience development through a range of projects including targeted formal and non formal learning programmes and activities 45 SL
Redevelopment of partnership approach to management and promotion of the built environment, placing it at the heart of the regeneration of the city and region 46 DA
Marketing the Derry opportunity
Implement an ambassador programme that connects young people, Diaspora, citizen and media to understand the city‟s ambition and their role in a successful future; 47 SL
Develop a co-ordinated welcome programme that drives standards and shares experiences; 48 DL 64
Provide a programme that extends the variety and choice of daytime and evening time attractions in the city 49 SL
Identify quantifiable successes that demonstrate distinctiveness; 50 CP 52
Understand our competitive position with other cities; 51 CP 64
Develop a showcase initiative to highlight achievement and successes; 52 SL
Implement a skills programme linked to the digital economy; 53 CP 17
Achieve City of Culture status and hosting other quality events programmes; 54 DL 28
Enhance the outdoor space and develop an evening economy programme; 55 DL 49
Build creativity and confidence in all the city‟s residents; 56 NI
Invest in the river and the City‟s natural and environmental assets; 57 NI
Develop a cluster programme to build sustainability 58 CP 108
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Actions Ref Allocation Link
Develop outward connections. 59 CP 47
Perform research to demonstrate change in market share and develop a segmentation model; 60 CP 52
Improve the use of new technology and CRM systems matching media choice to customer groups; 61 CP 52
Develop events and initiatives to make the city more welcoming for families; 62 CP 49
Identify opportunities for shared trade platforms and initiatives for tourism, investment and education; 63 CP 64
Provide a „one-stop-shop‟ for marketing, experience and strategic connections to product development. 64 SL
Transport and infrastructure
Removing all on-street parking in the Walled City and along the quays 65 SL
Removing through traffic from the Walled City 66 SL
Implementing better parking management arrangements 67 CP 65
Creating a new transport interchange at Foyle Street which will integrate bus and rail services 68 SL
Co-ordinating the cross linking of bus services 69 SL
Continuing the investment in upgrading the railway line 70 SL
Provide safer routes to schools promoting walking and cycling 71 SL
Implementing footway widening schemes within the walled city 72 CP 98
Continuing to work with Sustrans to connect communities in the east and west of the city to the new foot and cycle bridge and complete the city wide cycle network 73 SL
Implement air quality schemes 74 CP 66,71,73
Building the Peace Bridge 75 SL
Implementing Bus Priority restrictions in those areas which experience most congestion 76 SL
Providing additional park and ride facilities on access routes into the city 77 SL
Completing the A2 Dualling Scheme and the A5 and A6 road schemes 78 NI
Trialling an outer orbital route and building a third road bridge 79 SL
Building a bus only bridge 80 SL
Development of City Region Assets
Walled City: Realise the potential of the heritage assets, and reinforce the existing cultural and arts quarter, as well as encouraging a wider mix of uses and activities, including living spaces and tourism. 81 DL 42
Central Core (city centre): Regenerate the commercial, cultural, and social function of the city centre, putting the central core at the heart of Derry‟s competitiveness, and address the imbalance between the northern and southern ends of the city centre. 82 DL 49
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Actions Ref Allocation Link
Campsie: Reinforce the corridor‟s strategic employment role – especially in terms of inward, indigenous investment and job and business creation for the most deprived and the most in need under Section 75 – from Gransha, along the A2, to the City of Derry airport. 83 DL 9
Skeoge and Outer North Link: Capitalise on the area‟s investment and road infrastructure by promoting sustainable new and existing communities as well as any future plans for developing services within these communities, and by encouraging inward, indigenous investment and job and business creation for the most deprived and the most in need under Section 75, focused on the Skeoge Industrial Park. 84 DL 9
Higher and Further Education: Facilitate the expansion of the University on the Foyle and Londonderry College site; and ensure that the expansion will bring about a growth in student numbers, and will complement and integrate the economic regeneration proposals for the city. 85 DL 3
Ebrington / St Columb‟s Park House: Develop the quarter for a mix of commercial and cultural uses, and use as a showcase of high quality design of new buildings and public space. 86 DL 20
Free Derry: Reinforce the position of the Free Derry Corner as a tourist and cultural destination, and promote the opportunity for indigenous job and business creation for the most deprived and the most in need under Section 75, in hospitality, catering, and visitor services. Further build upon and extend the existing private, and social / community enterprises in the area (e.g. Rath Mor Business Park, Creggan Country Park). 87 SL
Clondermot and Corrody Road: Develop a masterplan for Clondermot based on the findings of the Clondermot EQIA; and develop Corrody Road for social and community benefits. 88 DA
Derry-Letterkenny Strategic Corridor: Improve leisure provision at Templemore complex. 89 DL 40
Pennyburn Fort George: Prepare an area-based masterplan for the cluster area, and assess the future of Fort George in the short and long-term. 90 DL 10
Foyle Valley: Promote the development of the Brandywell Stadium in partnership with DCC and Triax; and promote the area as a riverside attraction and recreational space. 91 DL 40
Clooney: Facilitate the relocation of Foyle and Londonderry College and Ebrington Primary School, and enhance the local open space provision. 92 SL
River asset
Greenways - continuous routes north and south of the city on both banks including rural and suburban visitor nodes and additional crossing points / ferry links. Greenway starter projects: New Bridge over Pennyburn, path from Peace bridge to St Columb;s Park (plus activity trail) and pedestrian/cycle use improvements on lower deck of Craigavon Bridge. Greenway starter projects: New Bridge over Pennyburn, path fro Peace bridge to St Columb;s Park (plus activity trail) and pedestrian/cycle use improvements on lower deck of Craigavon Bridge. Greenway lengths: Pennyburn to Boom Hall, Peace Bridge to Duke Street/Craigavon Bridge, Peace Bridge to Gransha 93 SL
Prehen Boathouse: Refurbish boathouse and slip for club use and improve economic significance and sustainability of the building by including commercial or administrative use of upper floor 94 SL
Daisyfield Boat Project; Gateway development at Daisyfield in association with Brandywell Project and including waterside recreational amenity such as schools boathouse or National Centre for Excellence in Water Sports 95 SL
Daisyfield Bridge: New footbridge between Daiseyfield and Prehen to link boating 96 SL
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Actions Ref Allocation Link amenities and establish further loop to riverside Greenways;
Urban Design Plan: Preparation of Strategic Riverside masterplan to ensure excellence in future development of the river front; 97 DA
Riverside Realm: continuous high quality riverside public realm throughout the city; 98 SL
Foyle Initiative‟ intensification and integration of the management of the river and riversides in a specific initiative to avtively drive the development of new socio- economic and economic uses of the river which contribute to the regeneration of Derry Londonderry. 99 DA
Boat Access: Multiple informal and formal points of access to the river for boat slipping and canoe, dingy use 100 CP 96
Visitor Moorings: Providing a chain of informal cruiser and yacht moorings on the river and lough to allow easy cruising over long distances; and 101 SL
Tourist Boat operating from city-centre between Craigavon Bridge and Culmore with historical commentary and drop off/pick up at Culmore (new pontoon). 102 SL
Environment and conservation
Creating a regional Centre of Excellence for Renewable Energy, Research and Development 103 CP 3
Upgrading and retrofitting the city region's existing buildings including roof and cavity wall insulation and renewable energy application with targeted job creation and use of ILMs 104 SL
Implementing a Green Energy and Energy Efficiency Pilot Scheme project community including a biomass district heating (CHP) system with potential for cross community partnership and inclusion of schools, public buildings, businesses and local farmers; 105 SL
Ensure the city's physical assets are developed using sustainable technologies and applying energy efficient measures such as smart metering and solar panels 106 CP 104
Setting up a Regional Energy Taskforce to address our reliance on fossil fuels and establish a roadmap to reduce energy consumption, generate heat & electricity from local, alternative energy sources and address the robustness of the existing energy infrastructure: and 107 DA
Setting up a North West Education for Sustainability forum to provide a co- ordinated and integrated approach to providing sustainable education and raising awareness of environmental issues. 108 SL
Adoption of a „green campus‟ policy lead by the Higher Education providers in the City focusing on curriculum, campus management, community and culture incorporating a regional R&D Institute for sustainable technologies. 109 CP 103, 3
Encouraging and facilitating all schools within the City region to achieve „eco- schools‟ status with provision of school kitchen gardens and/or wildlife gardens. 110 SL
Urban Gardening Programme support green spaces and provide allotments prioritising low income areas 111 SL
Develop local food economy linking with farmers and expansion of horticultural training 112 SL
Adopt cross border farmers support pilot scheme 113 CP 112
Food waste reduction programme 114 SL
Establish reuse opportunities providing employment and training 115 SL
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Actions Ref Allocation Link
Create R&D opportunities with regard to waste treatment technologies through HE and indigenous companies 116 CP 103, 3
Separate collections of food waste and garden waste for treatment through eg composting or anaerobic digestion 117 CP 114
Developing conservation apprenticeship schemes to develop skills within society and for young people to recognise the environmental sector as a potential career; 118 CP 104
Identifying, protecting and enhancing priority wildlife sites in the city and region; 119 CP 108
Surveying and controlling key invasive species found in the City and region where possible. 120 CP 108
Successful neighbourhoods
Improving and seeking to eradicate spatial inequalities in housing conditions 121 CP 122
Tackling spatial and sectional inequalities in the access to affordable housing and advice and assistance 122 SL
Promote the role of housing in regeneration and economic development initiatives 123 SL
Create and manage a directory of physical and human resources 124 SL
Identify gaps in service provision and physical infrastructure with a view to addressing them and building upon existing services 125 NI
Improving and developing play provision in areas without provision 126 CP 40
Poducing and making available a number of culturally sensitive local brochures setting out key services in each area 127 DL 124
Consider ways to fully utilise green spaces 128 CP 111 and 40
Develop a co-ordinated multi-agency structure to address community safety, crime, the fear of crime and antisocial behaviour 129 DA
Develop an open and accountable partnership between the community, statutory and voluntary sectors which ensures rights are upheld in order to maintain a safe, just and equitable community for everyone 130 DA
Sustain and develop capacity and implement programmes for challenging prejudice and promoting Good Community Relations at neighbourhood level 131 SL
Investigate the feasibility of a Community Allowance to provide financial gain on top of benefits for work that assists the community 132 DL 14
Develop citywide volunteers database 133 CP 124
Identify and improve key area based services to improve education and social skills based on needs assessments in individuals and communities 134 CP 6
Hold an annual community awards ceremony to celebrate excellence in communities 135 SL
Children and young people
A Child Friendly Community as recognised by UNICEF, which puts the participation of children and young people at the heart of decision making 136 CP
An early intervention City – delivering early intervention services and programmes needed to improve health and social care outcomes for children and young people 137 DL
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Actions Ref Allocation Link
Spaces to Grow, Places to Go – Access to places and spaces to play, meet, create, live and learn which are accessible, safe and where children and young people are welcomed as equal citizens 138 CP
Health and wellbeing
Establish Derry~Londonderry as an early intervention city placing particular emphasis on the life chances of children, young people and families 139 CP 1
Agree an early intervention strategy and action plan. Develop the Health and Social Care workforce and relevant community and voluntary partners to support early intervention 140 CP 1
Derry~Londonderry to take the lead in bringing about Legislative change on the availability of alcohol 141 SL
Establish Derry~Londonderry as the lead city for Community Mobilisation on the issue of alcohol by strengthening existing partnerships and building on current best practice 142 SL
Challenge the prevailing culture of sedentary lifestyles, poor diet and lack of physical activity for all age groups. 143 SL
Design and Deliver health improvement programmes based on evidence based model of good practice in a settings based approach ie schools, communities, workplaces etc. 144 NI
Promote healthy lifestyles, active play and physical activity for all citizens and abilities through provision of accessible physical and sports activities in partnership with statutory, community and voluntary partners 145 CP 40
Promote positive more sustainable communities in Derry~Londonderry by consolidation the work of initiatives such as 'The Community Safety Partnership' and the development of emerging Community Safety Forums 146 SL
Enhance the Safety/Security of citizens by ensuring the planning and design of neighbourhoods allowing for social interaction, recreation and community cohesion 147 SL
Develop Derry as the lead city in reducing the incidence and impact of mental illness, health, suicide and self harm. 148 SL
Early identification of individuals at risk through initiatives such as the Self Harm register and Community Response Programme (prevention of cluster suicides) 149 SL
Promote positive changes and attitudes towards people who experience mental health problems and illness 150 CP 148 Remove the stigma associated with mental illness through community awareness campaigns around positive messages about mental health and wellbeing 151 CP 148 Recognise and promote older people as a valuable resource by developing best practice initiatives around active ageing to delay the onset of later years illness and disability 152 NI
Develop a Charter of Rights for older people to underpin service delivery to improve access to and delivery of services 153 SL
Increase investment in domiciliary care / home support to facilitate and encourage independent living 154 SL Citizenship & Civic Pride
Lobbying for resources and change in benefits scheme to support voluntary activity 155 CP 132, 14
Auditing current volunteering activity and identifying gaps 156 DL 155
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Actions Ref Allocation Link
Developing and delivering volunteering interventions to enhance citizenship and civic pride 157 SL
Establishing a North West Civic Forum - incorporating a programme of events, public meetings and educational initiatives 158 DA
Develop a Civic £ Scheme 159 CP 132,14
Rolling out a programme of events for Local Democracy Week 160 CP 155
Developing and implementing a cross sectoral community engagement strategy. 161 CP 155
Developing a citizenship, diversity and values education programme, that can be rolled out across all our pre, primary and secondary schools. 162 DL 2
Set ting up and hosting an Annual Schools Convention. 163 CP 2
Establishing a web based citizenship and civic pride educational and support resource which incorporates a repository of initiatives, good practice and information. 164 DL 155
Developing a series of community based, citizenship leadership training initiatives, 165 SL
By providing mixed „Meeting Places for Pre, Primary and Secondary school children 166 CP 2
Developing and promoting a Citizenship Charter for the area. 167 CP 155
Establishing a Social Responsibility Programme. 168 CP 155
Undertaking a 3 Yearly Citizen Survey and collating continuous feedback via the Citizenship and Civic Pride web resource. 169 CP 154
Introduce a 'Diversity Month' to be held annually in September 170 CP 155
Holding an Annual Community Event' 172 CP 52
Implementing an Open Art Galleries initiative 172 SL
Developing a 'Tourism, Cultural Ambassadors' Scheme 173 CP 47
Addressing the Naming Issue 174 SL
Establishing a 'Citizens Trail' - history and culture for local people 175 SL
Implementing an animation programme for the pedestrian/cycle bridge and interlinked areas 176 CP 97
Supporting on the streets youth outreach initiatives 177 CP 155
Designing and delivering a range of neighbour/citizen support initiatives, including specific initiatives targeted at older people 178 CP 155
Designing and delivering tailored interventions to promote inter-community support and engagement. 179 SL
Designing and rolling out a Citizenship Education Programme, (including sustainability, equality and diversity). 180 CP 155
Introducing a CARES Programme based on the Chicago Model 181 CP 155
Supporting community mediation initiatives 182 SL
Promoting existing recreational opportunities 183 DL 41
Developing & implementing a festivals & events strategy 184 DL 28
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Actions Ref Allocation Link
Delivering a focused media campaign on promotion of city 185 DL 48, 64
Developing & implementing a city centre safety plan 186 DL 129
Establishing a cross political & cross sectoral concordat on job/ investment opportunities 187 SL
Promoting the availability of quality education opportunities 188 DL 64
Establishing a cross sectoral Civic Pride Champions Group (with dedicated resources) to manage the media and promote all good news emanating from the council area 189 DA
Undertaking a cross sectoral gap analysis and developing improvement strategy for recreational opportunities 190 DL 41
Short list and delivery approach actions identified by SWGs (Figure 2)
Actions Ref
Education and skills
Literacy and Numeracy, Family Support and Nurturing Programme: Early intervention and targeted at those who need it most 1
A Community of Schools Programme: Expand the Foyle Learning Community to include primary schools; Create a Forum for Best Practice; Create a School Leadership Programme; and A Virtual Learning Environment 2
Expansion of the HE Provision: • Increase in University Provision by 5,400 FTEs to 9,400 (2,000 – 6,000 MaSN) • Increase in HE MaSN @ NWRC from 750 – 1,500 • A Centre of Excellence in Arts Practice and Creative Technologies • Institutes of Health & Well Being and Sustainability • 20 new Research Chairs 3
A Tracking System which: • Supports increased accountability • Tracks people from early years into the workplace • Allows for better targeting to those who need most help 5
Enterprise and employment
Implement Personal Development programmes linked to skills and training which will be flexible and suitable to be customised to the needs of individuals and their communities 6
Developing capacity to capitalise on changes in future industrial skills and sectors for economic growth in STEM areas 7
Creating a Confederation of Sector Specific Innovation Centres to develop and grow the next generation of indigenous businesses 9
Focus on Fort George as a world class knowledge/innovation hub 10
Fostering Co-operative business development through the development of proven models 12
Increase the number of Social Benefit Clauses within local contracts to enhance skills and experience of unemployed and economically inactive within the city in order to maximise the social and economic impact of capital spending 14
Part 5: SWG Actions: Long-list to short-list 222
Actions Ref programmes
Accelerate the development of the C-TRIC facility to advance the City as an innovative city 15
Create the optimum high bandwidth access for Small and Medium Enterprises (SME) and the domestic user on the island through existing providers or through the development of a Metropolitan Area Network for the City 16
Support the Development of Data Centres and other industries tha can exploit the opportunities arising from Project Kelvin 17
Working with existing enterprises to move up the value chain through collaborative effort, including mentoring, and staff training to enable them to expand their market share locally, regionally and internationally utilising global technology 19
Creating on Ebrington a centre for tourism, arts and culture with a facility to nurture the development of digital content business in the creative sector 20
Building upon the expertise generated by an expanded university and the Innovation Centres to promote the region as a centre for innovative, knowledge-based businesses 27
Tourism, arts culture and leisure
Securing Securing City of Culture designation for 2013 and develop a cultural tourism strategy so as to create a legacy of festivals and events of local, national and international importance 28
Securing a beacon anchor project for Ebrington that will strengthen the City as the capital of the North West and bring downstream benefits 31
Implementing the medium - long term objectives of the Tourism Strategy: 'Focus on the Future' 35
Investing in the infrastructure for leisure and sport at school, community, club, regional and elite levels 40
Filling gaps within the wider heritage product and developing and linking themes including early Christian, Plantation, Seige, Industrial, transport, maritime and contemporary political - and service areas including archives and genealogy 42
Building capacity across the heritage sector by increasing access to training/employment; by implementing professional guidelines with regards to collections care and through raising standards of visitor services 44
Encouraging audience development through a range of projects including targeted formal and non formal learning programmes and activities 45
Marketing the Derry opportunity
Implement an ambassador programme that connects young people, Diaspora, citizen and media to understand the city‟s ambition and their role in a successful future; 47
Provide a programme that extends the variety and choice of daytime and evening time attractions in the city 49
Develop a showcase initiative to highlight achievement and successes; 52
Provide a „one-stop-shop‟ for marketing, experience and strategic connections to product development. 64
Transport and infrastructure
Removing all on-street parking in the Walled City and along the quays 65
Removing through traffic from the Walled City 66
Creating a new transport interchange at Foyle Street which will integrate bus and rail services 68
Co-ordinating the cross linking of bus services 69
Continuing the investment in upgrading the railway line 70
Provide safer routes to schools promoting walking and cycling 71
Part 5: SWG Actions: Long-list to short-list 223
Actions Ref
Continuing to work with Sustrans to connect communities in the east and west of the city to the new foot and cycle bridge and complete the city wide cycle network 73
Building the Peace Bridge 75
Implementing Bus Priority restrictions in those areas which experience most congestion 76
Providing additional park and ride facilities on access routes into the city 77
Trialling an outer orbital route and building a third road bridge 79
Building a bus only bridge 80
Development of City Region Assets
Free Derry: Reinforce the position of the Free Derry Corner as a tourist and cultural destination, and promote the opportunity for indigenous job and business creation for the most deprived and the most in need under Section 75, in hospitality, catering, and visitor services. Further build upon and extend the existing private, and social / community enterprises in the area (e.g. Rath Mor Business Park, Creggan Country Park). 87
Clooney: Facilitate the relocation of Foyle and Londonderry College and Ebrington Primary School, and enhance the local open space provision. 92
River asset
Greenways - continuous routes north and south of the city on both banks including rural and suburban visitor nodes and additional crossing points / ferry links. Greenway starter projects: New Bridge over Pennyburn, path from Peace bridge to St Columb;s Park (plus activity trail) and pedestrian/cycle use improvements on lower deck of Craigavon Bridge. Greenway starter projects: New Bridge over Pennyburn, path fro Peace bridge to St Columb;s Park (plus activity trail) and pedestrian/cycle use improvements on lower deck of Craigavon Bridge. Greenway lengths: Pennyburn to Boom Hall, Peace Bridge to Duke Street/Craigavon Bridge, Peace Bridge to Gransha 93
Prehen Boathouse: Refurbish boathouse and slip for club use and improve economic significance and sustainability of the building by including commercial or administrative use of upper floor 94
Daisyfield Boat Project; Gateway development at Daisyfield in association with Brandywell Project and including waterside recreational amenity such as schools boathouse or National Centre for Excellence in Water Sports 95
Daisyfield Bridge: New footbridge between Daiseyfield and Prehen to link boating amenities and establish further loop to riverside Greenways; 96
Riverside Realm: continuous high quality riverside public realm throughout the city; 98
Visitor Moorings: Providing a chain of informal cruiser and yacht moorings on the river and lough to allow easy cruising over long distances; and 101
Tourist Boat operating from city-centre between Craigavon Bridge and Culmore with historical commentary and drop off/pick up at Culmore (new pontoon). 102 Environment and conservation
Upgrading and retrofitting the city region's existing buildings including roof and cavity wall insulation and renewable energy application with targeted job creation and use of ILMs 104
Implementing a Green Energy and Energy Efficiency Pilot Scheme project community including a biomass district heating (CHP) system with potential for cross community partnership and inclusion of schools, public buildings, businesses and local farmers; 105
Setting up a North West Education for Sustainability forum to provide a co-ordinated and integrated approach to providing sustainable education and raising awareness of environmental issues. 108
Encouraging and facilitating all schools within the City region to achieve „eco-schools‟ status with provision of school kitchen gardens and/or wildlife gardens. 110
Part 5: SWG Actions: Long-list to short-list 224
Actions Ref
Urban Gardening Programme support green spaces and provide allotments prioritising low income areas 111
Develop local food economy linking with farmers and expansion of horticultural training 112
Food waste reduction programme 114
Establish reuse opportunities providing employment and training 115
Successful neighbourhoods
Tackling spatial and sectional inequalities in the access to affordable housing and advice and assistance 122
Promote the role of housing in regeneration and economic development initiatives 123
Create and manage a directory of physical and human resources 124
Sustain and develop capacity and implement programmes for challenging prejudice and promoting Good Community Relations at neighbourhood level 131
Hold an annual community awards ceremony to celebrate excellence in communities 135 Children and young people
Develop Clondermot Cluster and in particular Corrody Road Site 136
Health and wellbeing
Derry~Londonderry to take the lead in bringing about Legislative change on the availability of alcohol 140
Establish Derry~Londonderry as the lead city for Community Mobilisation on the issue of alcohol by strengthening existing partnerships and building on current best practice 141
Challenge the prevailing culture of sedentary lifestyles, poor diet and lack of physical activity for all age groups. 142
Promote positive more sustainable communities in Derry~Londonderry by consolidation the work of initiatives such as 'The Community Safety Partnership' and the development of emerging Community Safety Forums 145
Enhance the Safety/Security of citizens by ensuring the planning and design of neighbourhoods allowing for social interaction, recreation and community cohesion 146
Develop Derry as the lead city in reducing the incidence and impact of mental illness, health, suicide and self harm. 147
Early identification of individuals at risk through initiatives such as the Self Harm register and Community Response Programme (prevention of cluster suicides) 148
Develop a Charter of Rights for older people to underpin service delivery to improve access to and delivery of services 152
Increase investment in domiciliary care / home support to facilitate and encourage independent living 153
Citizenship and civic pride
Developing and delivering volunteering interventions to enhance citizenship and civic pride 156
Developing a series of community based, citizenship leadership training initiatives, 164
Implementing an Open Art Galleries initiative 171
Addressing the Naming Issue 173
Establishing a 'Citizens Trail' - history and culture for local people 174
Designing and delivering tailored interventions to promote inter-community support and engagement. 178
Part 5: SWG Actions: Long-list to short-list 225
Actions Ref
Supporting community mediation initiatives 181
Establishing a cross political & cross sectoral concordat on job/ investment opportunities 186
Part 6: A proposal for the growth of the Higher Education provision 226
A report by the Resources Group on HE for the FHE Sub Group
June 2010
Contents Page
1.0 Executive Summary ...... 227 2.0 Purpose of report ...... 230 3.0 Vision ...... 231 4.0 Access, Aspiration, Attainment and Participation ...... 234 5.0 Demand ...... 235 6.0 Portfolio ...... 239 7.0 Student Numbers and MaSN: ...... 243 8.0 Research ...... 245 9.0 Working with the business and the community ...... 247 10.0 Other Strategic Opportunities for Expansion ...... 249 11.0 Marketing ...... 250 12.0 Location Regeneration & Timescale ...... 251 13.0 Cross Border Perspective ...... 252 14.0 Finance and Business Plan ...... 253 15.0 Economic Impact ...... 255 16.0 Structure and Delivery Plan ...... 256 17.0 Members of the HE Resources Group ...... 257
APPENDIX A: The Derry~Londonderry City Region Economy ...... 259 APPENDIX B: The Demand For Higher Education in the UK and Northern Ireland ...... 261 APPENDIX C: Disciplines and Student Numbers - A Draft Summary Prospectus for 2020 ...... 265
Part 6: A proposal for the growth of the Higher Education provision 227 227 1.0 Executive Summary
a) Derry~Londonderry is embarking on a regeneration programme which aims to deliver „the best regeneration any city in these islands has ever seen‟. This proposal for a substantial expansion in higher education provision at the University of Ulster‟s Magee campus and at the North West Regional College (NWRC) is a proposition that has been agreed between the University of Ulster and the social partners engaged in developing a regeneration plan that will fulfil this ambition. This proposition is one vital component of the overall plan for the economic, physical and social renewal of the city, which is being delivered as a single, agreed vision and implementation plan from the city to government. b) The proposal has been agreed by the University of Ulster (referred to in this report as the University), U4D and the ILEX Further and Higher Education Sub-Group (ILEX- FHESG)17 which was set up to define a proposition for the future of HE provision within the Mark II Regeneration Plan and, in that context, is for presentation to and adoption by the Strategy Board via the Education and Skills SWG. It will form part of an agreed submission by Derry-Londonderry to the NI Executive and to the Davies Review of Higher Education Strategy in Northern Ireland. c) The working group and those working on the regeneration plan for the city share a vision of a university presence in the city, which transcends traditional academic and cultural boundaries, as a proven agent for equality, inclusion, regeneration and participation. d) The working group has fully adopted the conclusions and recommendations of the independent report by the ILEX Research Study18, which makes a strong and persuasive case for a substantial university expansion to between 7,800 and 10,000 full time equivalent students (FTE). e) The recommendations of the ILEX Research Study are consistent with, and supported in particular by, two other pieces of work that are independent from it in both their origin and their methodology. The U4D group developed a business plan19 to investigate the scale at which any university might be economically viable and showed that an expansion would be marginally sustainable (5% surplus), with some 9,200 FTEs, but that 10,700 FTE students would be preferred to ensure the long-term sustainability of any expansion. In January 2010 the ILEX-FHESG used a set of comparator universities in cities similar to Derry to define reasonable and sustainable aspirations20. This study concluded that a sustainable target population of 10,500 FTEs was reasonable and that particular effort should be expended in strengthening the research base and the teaching of STEM subjects. f) In the context of this body of evidence, we have agreed a realisable and sustainable aspiration for a university campus which serves 9,400 FTEs (including 6,000 MaSN), supported by enhanced provision of 750 MaSN at the NWRC (bringing the total MaSN there to 1,500). g) The adoption of the recommendations of this report equates to a targeted flexing of MaSN for Magee of 4,000 and for NWRC of 750 over the 10 year period to 2020.
17 See section 16 for authorship 18 Addressing the Gaps in Educational Outturns in the Derry City Council Area – PwC/Oxford Economics for Ilex and its Partners – Nov 2009 In this paper referred to as the „ILEX Research Report‟ 19 U4D University for Derry 2020 Business Plan, January 2010 20 „University Higher Education in Derry: Reality and Sustainable Aspiration – FHE Sub Group of the Regeneration Process
Part 6: A proposal for the growth of the Higher Education provision 228 228
h) We recognise the scale of this aspiration in terms of expansion of MaSN at both the University and NWRC. An expansion of this scale is required if the regeneration process is to meet its goal of creating 15,000 new jobs in the next 10 years and if we are to achieve the up-skilling of the resident workforce envisaged in the Oxford Economics Skills Forecast for the North West21 (54% of the total net skills requirement is for persons with NQF level 4 qualifications and above). i) An expansion of this size would cost an extra circa £45m - £50m per annum in revenue costs, together with a capital investment of in the region of £200m. (figures to be confirmed). We recognise a range of opportunities for private sector / philanthropic contributions to both revenue costs (especially the costs of increasing research activities) and capital costs, for example in the provision of student accommodation. j) A campus of this size would be a net contributor to the University and the local economy. The total economic impact of the proposed expansion is forecast to be circa £495m per annum by 2030, rising to some £1bn by 20402 and would become the catalyst for city-wide economic renewal. In conjunction with other supporting interventions, this has been forecast to lead to the creation of 2,800 new jobs (direct and indirect) by 2020, rising to 7,700 by 20302. The economic impact flowing from the implementation of this proposal is vital if Derry ~ Londonderry is to make the transformation envisaged as a result of the regeneration process. k) We wish to build on the current research excellence at the University by delivering 20 more Research Professorships with associated investment in support staff, equipment and facilities. Such a programme will make a major contribution to the University profile, status and the international credibility of Derry~Londonderry as a place of learning and innovation, and as a destination for mobile investment. l) The ILEX Report stresses the need to make „Derry-Londonderry a more attractive place to live, work and invest in‟ and refers to a „University City‟. We share this aspiration and believe that the most effective way of achieving this is to link the expansion of the HE provision in the city with its overall regeneration in a single plan for the city. m) Within this city plan, the development of an attractive, welcoming and safe university campus will act as a catalyst for future economic growth, sustainability and social cohesion. n) The significant expansion of student numbers proposed here is an essential component of the overall plan for the economic growth, viability and sustainability of the city o) The balanced portfolio of teaching and learning, research and development and work with business, industry and the community articulated in this proposal will drive the transformation of the city. p) Our plan is to build on the University‟s national reputation for widening access. The University is consistently in the top 10 of UK universities and consistently exceeds its HEFCE benchmark in this regard. Thus we envisage a provision which both provides HE for Derry people, as well as HE in Derry. We recommend the extension of the concept of „widening access‟ to include the provision of an enhanced range of cultural and academic activities and programmes for the community of the North West of Ireland. q) International students add an important dimension in helping a local community appreciate the richness of cultural diversity and, as such, can reinforce indigenous community cohesion. We believe that there are special cultural and economic opportunities for Derry~Londonderry in links with North America, China and India. r) We recognise that an integrated city plan has the potential to provide significant tangible and intangible returns from the projected public investment. The ILEX Report recognises that universities can play a significant role in regeneration; we argue that all
21 Workforce Future Skill Needs Analysis North West Workforce Development Forum Report (Oxford Economics February 2010
Part 6: A proposal for the growth of the Higher Education provision 229 229
interests in Derry~Londonderry must come together if the aspirations set out in this paper are to be realised. s) The ILEX Report identifies various partners, but stops short of recommending how this strategy will be delivered. This is a key issue for the city, which will be addressed in the wider regeneration process under deliverability of the overall plan. This working group recommends the instigation of an Alliance for Higher Education Expansion as a core element of the implementation structure that will be set up for the process. This Alliance should be supported by a resource dedicated to supporting the University and the NWRC to deliver the aspirations set out in this paper. This resource would reflect the „whole city‟ approach to regeneration, and the delivery of the higher education expansion in particular.
Part 6: A proposal for the growth of the Higher Education provision 230 230 2.0 Purpose of report
This report is one output from the regeneration process which sets out to deliver in Derry~Londonderry „the best regeneration any city in these islands has ever seen”
It outlines an agreed set of proposals for the future of HE provision within the Mark II Regeneration Plan and, in that context, is for presentation to and adoption by the Strategy Board via the Education and Skills SWG. It will eventually form part of an agreed submission by Derry-Londonderry to the NI Executive and to the Davies Review of Higher Education Strategy in Northern Ireland.
The primary objectives of this higher education expansion are:
− to create a „University City‟ of UK, Irish & international renown − to contribute to the region‟s regeneration to the maximum benefit of all its citizens − to improve access to, and attainment in, higher education for disadvantaged sections of the community − to energise inward and local economic investment through a financially, academically and environmentally sustainable university with world class research excellence
This report is concerned principally with the funding, impact and student numbers involved in the development of the university in Derry~Londonderry. The figures in this report, apart from a brief commentary in section 3 on HE in FE, relate to students based on the Magee campus of the University.
The implementation of these proposals will make a significant contribution towards attaining the emerging targets for the regeneration plan, which includes:
Increasing employment from 40,500 (2008) to 55,000 (2020) by creating over 15,000 net new jobs by 2020 (35% increase in employment)
This proposition is one of the critical interventions which would have a transformational impact on both the supply of appropriately skilled people and, linked with actions being developed by other ILEX-SWGs, stimulate the demand required to make a significant contribution towards attaining this employment target.
The Ilex Research Report forecasts that an expansion of the University campus in Derry~Londonderry to circa 10,000 FTEs could stimulate the creation of 2,700 jobs by 2020, rising to 7,600 by 2030.
Part 6: A proposal for the growth of the Higher Education provision 231 231 3.0 Vision
The long term Vision for Derry~Londonderry is
“to create a strong, vibrant, forward looking City Region that is attractive to investors and appealing to visitors – a place of diversity, equality and opportunity where all residents enjoy an outstanding quality of life and are given the opportunity to realise their full potential”
The mission of the regeneration plan is:
„to deliver renewal – economic, physical and social - building a stronger and more vibrant economy with increased prosperity for our city and region, in ways which ensure that opportunities and benefits from regeneration are targeted towards the most deprived groups in our communities‟.
There are a number of key components to the emerging regeneration plan, one of which is the substantial expansion of the HE provision in Derry~Londonderry as part of an education and skills strategy which aims „to nurture a desire to learn that will enable people to realise their full potential throughout their lives, and provide the basis on which to grow a more dynamic economy in the region‟22.
This strategy has the following priorities:
Addressing the impacts of family poverty through collaboration and partnership between those who teach, those who nurture and those who provide care and support; Enhancing levels of educational attainment at all levels including literacy and numeracy and STEM subject areas; and Enhancing skills provision to deliver increased ambition and an improved stock of skills in the community, through enhanced HE provision with clear pathways from school, through FE and HE to the world of work.
Our vision is that by 2020 Derry-Londonderry will enjoy the benefits of a
substantially expanded university of 9,400 full time equivalent students, which
transcends traditional academic and cultural boundaries as a proven agent for
regeneration, participation and inclusion.
The key elements of the vision are that: a) Derry-Londonderry is widely recognised as a „University City‟ b) access to and participation in higher education is widened c) there is close collaboration between higher and further education providers
22 Education & Skills SWG
Part 6: A proposal for the growth of the Higher Education provision 232 232 d) existing academic and research excellence is developed to deliver a self- sustaining university campus in Derry~Londonderry e) the expanded provision maximises its impact on local (including cross border) communities f) the expanded provision is a driver of continuous regeneration in local and regional economies g) the global profile and promotion of the Derry-Londonderry city offer is greatly enhanced h) specialist provision (e.g. extended medical school provision) is made possible, if necessary, by collaboration with existing external agencies. i) the expanded provision results in an enhanced public realm with a high quality and accessible built environment
The enhancement of the university will enable Derry-Londonderry to reassert
itself as the second city of Northern Ireland, as well as the fourth city and urban
centre of the island of Ireland. Its impact will be significant with local, regional
and international benefits to the economy, environment, cultural life and higher
education participation.
Part 6: A proposal for the growth of the Higher Education provision 233 233
The ILEX Research Study (October 2009), by Oxford Economics and PwC, „Addressing the Gap in Educational Outturns in the Derry City Council Area‟, made a strong and persuasive case for a substantial expansion of the Magee campus, to between 7,800 and 10,000 full time students, to make a significant contribution to transforming the city into a „University City‟.
Two recent studies support the findings of the ILEX report:
a) In November 2009 the U4D group published their „Vision for a 21st Century University in Derry‟ document, followed in January 2010 by a financial business plan23 which showed that, while an expanded university in Derry would break even at an FTE count of around 7300, some 10700 FTE‟s would be required if the project was to be seen as independently economically viable. b) In January 2010 the ILEX-FHESG examined the issue by the analysis of empirical data24. This study examined comparable cities in Britain and Ireland – selected for their similarity to Derry~Londonderry in terms of population and geographical location – to host , sustain and benefit from equitable student populations and research activity. The results also supported the findings of the ILEX Research Report in that it concluded that a sustainable target for expansion should be in the region of 10,500 FTEs though it acknowledged a range of possible interventions from about 9,200 to 14,100. This report specifically noted a requirement for expansion of the university research base in the city and emphasised the importance of STEM subjects.
Here we have integrated the recommendations of these separate reports, with full regard to the timescale of this expansion, and have concluded that 9,400 university-based FTE students is a realistic target for the 2020 Vision.
The ILEX Research Report stops short of recommending how or where that expansion should take place in the university. Here we develop these areas in Section 5 below.
23 U4D University for Derry 2020 Business Plan, January 2010 24 „University Higher Education in Derry: Reality and Sustainable Aspiration – FHE Sub Group of the Regeneration Process
Part 6: A proposal for the growth of the Higher Education provision 234 234 4.0 Access, Aspiration, Attainment and Participation
Inclusion, equality and participation are at the heart of the Regeneration Plan for the city. For this proposal to meet the Economic and Equality objectives of the Regeneration Plan it requires enhanced pathways into HE through FE in particular. Such pathways will help to address another of the inherent challenges of Derry~Londonderry – the poverty of personal aspiration.
The University of Ulster at Magee already has a number of exemplary programmes on campus and in partnership with FE colleges to improve access and raise aspiration, participation and attainment in HE by those from disadvantaged communities. The Step-Up programme deserves particular mention. Through Step-Up the University liaises with and supports secondary schools located in disadvantaged areas of Derry with a view to enhancing both the aspiration of school leavers and their performance in examinations. Through this programme many of Derry‟s young people have progressed receiving first- class degrees in the sciences who might otherwise never have considered attending university. The Step-Up programme is now nationally and internationally recognised as a exemplar in widening access.
In general the University has a national reputation for widening access which we thoroughly endorse and would see expanded. The University is consistently in the top 10 institutions for widening access nationally and has never failed to achieve its HEFCE benchmarks in this regard.
Another feature of the University‟s operation which we applaud and would maintain and expand is the access link established between the University in Derry~Londonderry and the NWRC. The ILEX Research Study recognises the importance of working in partnership with FE colleges such as NWRC. The current full time (MaSN) HE at the college is 750 and this report would support raising this to at least 1,500 thereby providing wider access to FE and delivering progression to HE programmes. As outlined in the ILEX Research Report, these FE MaSN are separate and additional to the university based MaSN. Compared to further education colleges in GB this is a significant HE base in FE for a city region the size of Derry-Londonderry.25 This will raise the total full time student population in the city „to between 8,800 and 11,000‟.
The ILEX Report, however, also recognises that HE in FE cannot be the core recruitment market for the university.
25 Note also that the university will need circa 500 of its MaSN associated with third year, three-semester student progression from FDs in FE to HE
Part 6: A proposal for the growth of the Higher Education provision 235 235 5.0 Demand
A higher proportion of Northern Ireland‟s students study outside Northern Ireland than is the case with the home nations of Great Britain.
The Department for Employment and Learning has recently (August 2010) published the statistical bulletin on Destination of Leavers from UK Higher Education institutions: Northern Ireland analysis 2008/09. The report demonstrates that the majority of Northern Ireland students who go to Great Britain to study and are then employed go on to work in Great Britain after leaving university. By contrast, the overwhelming majority of those who study in Northern Ireland and then work after graduation do so in Northern Ireland. This report was published in the same week as disclosure of a reported shortfall of higher education places in Northern Ireland for the 2009/10 entry, with applications from 27,000 potential students for 8,378 available places: a rise of 2,000 applicants from Northern Ireland schools this year and a projected 10,000 students „destined to be disappointed‟ – i.e. with appropriate grade, but no university place.
A higher proportion of students in Derry do not go on to study at university level, or study away from Derry, than in the rest of Northern Ireland or Ireland26.
This is in part a consequence of:
a) the cap on Maximum Student Numbers (MaSN) in Northern Ireland – the driver for which has been the depressed state of employer demand for HE rather than regarding a growing HE sector as the catalyst for economic growth and hence participation (see DEL Report 200527); b) an uneven HE provision across Northern Ireland, with a relatively low provision in terms of volume and scope of provision in Derry~Londonderry; c) a lack of access opportunities to higher education from FE and disadvantaged communities; d) a poor profile of Northern Ireland in general and Derry~Londonderry in particular as locations to study at university level. Northern Ireland and Derry- Londonderry did recruit students from the rest of UK up to 20 years ago, but, with the imposition of the MaSN cap and fewer university places in NI than there are qualified applicants seeking to fill them, it has not been in the interests of the University to promote its programmes to the Great Britain market; e) a lack of some specialist and appropriate courses offered by Northern Ireland institutions, but which are offered in Great Britain.
26 See U4D Dataset Paper October 2009 which is summarise in Appendix A 27 „Consideration of the Optimum Number of Full Time Undergraduate Places in Northern Ireland Higher Education‟ – A position paper DEL 2005
Part 6: A proposal for the growth of the Higher Education provision 236 236
In research, commissioned by DEL in 2008, into the attitudes of school leavers to HE28, there are valuable insights into the factors which influence demand, but no firm conclusions were drawn sufficient to base decisions on potential demand for HE. Further, there are many examples of failed attempts by government to plan for the supply of graduates to meet „assessed needs‟. As a consequence, save for specific needs such as STEM graduates, which respond to particular needs of employers, or access programmes, which respond to community needs, funding bodies have avoided attempts to assess and/or stimulate demand in particular disciplines or for particular groups.
By contrast, analysis of UCAS applicants‟ preferences provides an indication of student demand for course and location (with the footnote „health warning‟ [13]). In addition to meeting the particular needs of the local economy (now and in the future) and to increasing access to higher education, growth in HE in Derry~Londonderry must be in the high-volume recruiting subject areas of Ireland, GB and globally. It is here that there is a prospect of the university in Derry increasing its market share in real terms. This has been the approach adopted in the formative years of newly established universities in the UK, without prejudice to their focus on academic quality and the student experience. Appendix B analyses in detail the UK and Northern Ireland UCAS demand preferences by subject and, in Northern Ireland, by institution. This analysis is reflected in Section 6 below.
By contrast, UCAS analyses of applicants‟ preferences provide an indication of student demand for course and location, with a „health warning‟29. In addition to meeting particular needs of the local economy (now and in the future) and increasing access to higher education, growth in HE in Derry~Londonderry must be in high-volume recruiting subject areas in Ireland, GB and globally. It is here that there is a prospect of the expanded university in Derry increasing its actual market share. This has been the approach adopted in the formative years of newly established universities in the UK, without prejudice to a focus on academic quality and the student experience. Appendix B analyses in detail the UK and Northern Ireland UCAS demand preferences by subject and, in Northern Ireland, by institution. This analysis is developed in Section 6 below.
There are two important dimensions to the demand for, and hence supply of, higher education:
28 „After School: Attitudes and perceptions of Northern Ireland school leavers towards higher and further education, training and employment‟ DEL June 2008 29 See Appendix B page 22.
Part 6: A proposal for the growth of the Higher Education provision 237 237
a) There is substantial evidence to support the contention that a well- educated society will be more creative, generate GVA and hence stimulate a continuing demand for HE. This is a precept that is shared by developed and developing countries, especially in times of economic downturn. This policy can also be linked to the needs and skill base of a local economy. Even though the Magee campus is located in the North West region – containing the Derry and Strabane districts, which for the past quarter century have been among those with the highest unemployment rates in the UK - its graduates have been getting jobs as readily as those from universities in the lowest unemployment areas.
b) Recruitment from outside a city region and country will bring significant investment to a local economy. This is a factor that has been recognised by the UK government in sponsoring the start up of new universities in the UK and in supporting the recruitment of international students through the British Council. Each student coming to study in a city from outside the region/country represents export earnings for that economy.
The current MaSN allocated to Magee has constrained the development of a course portfolio. An expanded portfolio, together with a regenerated city, would consistently attract a high level of students, including students from the North West who currently choose to study elsewhere and who fail to return to take up employment at home. Relatively few students from Great Britain or the rest of Ireland come to study in Derry~Londonderry. This policy has had a constraining effect on the Northern Ireland economy and on HE participation in disadvantaged areas such as Derry-Londonderry. It is one that we recognise will be difficult to change in the new era of HE stringency. But we also argue that for Derry~Londonderry this is precisely the time to unlock the potential of a targeted relaxation of MaSN, especially if this is linked to economic, physical and social renewal of the city.
The ILEX Report stresses, „making Derry-Londonderry a more attractive place to live, work and invest in‟. Respondents to that study expressed the desire for Derry~Londonderry to be positioned as a university city, one where the university was universally regarded as a cornerstone of the social and cultural fabric of the place and a key driver of the local economy. The „University City‟ envisaged would have renowned centres of education, research, culture, art and technology and residents of diverse backgrounds, which give the city it‟s intellectual and international flavour. The U4D 2020 Vision and Business Plan
Part 6: A proposal for the growth of the Higher Education provision 238 238 documents30 support these aspirations by linking the regeneration of the city to the growth of the university.
This report endorses these complementary objectives in principle and asserts that by 2020 Derry will have developed a profile as a highly attractive „University City‟ - welcoming, safe and responsive to the changing lifestyle and learning environment of students and staff. A „Prospectus for Derry‟ will be recognised as an exemplar of best practice in promoting a university and its host city in an integrated way. There has been a significant shift in the variables affecting a student choice in the UK, since the introduction of student fees. The „student experience‟ - and increasingly so with a significant raising of fees by 2020 - is determined by the quality of the offering of the city and region which the university serves, as much as the facilities, portfolio and academic standing of the university. The city of Derry-Londonderry requires a deliverable vision as an attractive and safe city, with an economic, physical and social regeneration programme, linked to the expansion of the university. At the heart of this vision lies the principle of a diverse yet cohesive university that welcomes students and staff, irrespective of background. This also extends to shared global links between the university and the city in the recruitment of international (non EU) students. Such students not only enhance diversity, they are, as indicated above, a valuable source of external income.
The concept of „University City‟ also extends to pedagogy - where and how students study. Academic study will be increasingly boundless with wireless access extending the „Learning Landscape‟31 beyond the classroom and the boundaries of the university into the city. Advances in information technology and communications have opened up new possibilities for distance learning and inter-institutional collaboration. Magee already has a number of exemplary national programmes exploiting new technologies.
30 „A Vision for a 21st Century University in Derry‟ U4D and „University for Derry -2020 Business Plan‟ U4D January 2010 31 See http://learninglandscapes.lincoln.ac.uk project funded by HEFCE, SFC and HEFCW 2008-09
Part 6: A proposal for the growth of the Higher Education provision 239 239 6.0 Portfolio
In this section we provide an illustrative portfolio for 2020, recognising that in practice the university would maintain vigilance in continuously reviewing its portfolio ensuring dynamism and innovation throughout its operation. We acknowledge that the University of Ulster, as an independent body, has the ultimate authority in this respect but we trust that our recommendations provide a sense of how such a portfolio might interact with the city‟s economic, physical and social offering
The ILEX report recommends that the expanded university focuses on „subjects in the emerging growth sectors (post recession)‟ and identified inter alia construction, culture arts and tourism, creative technologies, financial and advanced business services, the health and caring professions and high value engineering‟. We endorse this strategy of investing for the future and have considered below the intersection of these strategically important areas with the strengths already in place in the University.
Appendix B provides an analysis of UCAS reports on applications to all subject areas in the UK generally and Northern Ireland universities in particular. High recruiting disciplines include Business and Management, Law, Psychology, Sports Science and „the Creative Industries‟. The latter represents approximately £100bn to the UK economy and includes art, design, media production and technologies. Many of the businesses in this sector are small and work successfully in remote locations. University taught research and enterprise programmes can act as a catalyst for the establishment and the maintenance of competitive advantage in such firms.
Appendix C provides projected student numbers by discipline and school. In more detail an indicative 2020 portfolio might include:
Teaching of the Arts and Humanities
- An expanded Derry Centre for International Business internationally recognised for its expertise in social enterprise, finance and commerce, accountancy, marketing and entrepreneurship. - A new Centre of Art and Design focussing on graphic and product design, supporting a new Derry Arts Quarter and building on the strengths in design presently offered through the University‟s School of Creative Arts. - An expanded School of Law possibly incorporating the existing Post- Graduate School of Professional Legal Education. - Media Production and Film Making, building on existing strengths currently in Magee and stimulating and bringing support to a new SME cluster in North West Ireland. Key to such a development would be securing industrial placements in major TV and film studios
Part 6: A proposal for the growth of the Higher Education provision 240 240 - Fashion Design, potentially linked to a new Creative Quarter along the regenerated Foyle waterfront. Such programmes have flourished in cities where the textile industry has failed (e.g. Leicester) and successfully started up where no textile industry has ever existed (e.g. Lincoln) -in both cases stimulating a local demand and linking with national markets. - A new School of Architecture focusing on enabling urban development and regeneration, a philosophy at the heart of a number of leading practices globally (e.g. DEGW and Sazaki) which might also work with the school on Derry‟s regeneration programme. A school, similar to the Architectural Association in London, would need to have an international dimension with potential linkages, possibly with the World Bank as well as the collaborating practices. Note that new, successful architecture schools in cities of similar size to Derry have been established in the past 10 years in Cork, Lincoln, Limerick and Waterford32. - Journalism and an enhanced humanities portfolio, building on the excellence in Irish Studies in Derry~Londonderry, the subject has a distinctive character and with links to media, performing arts and business. - Linked to journalism, design and business are advertising and associated public relations. A cross faculty programme linked to these disciplines would enable graduates to find their way through the new world of multi- media publicists addressing changing clienteles and tapping new sources of finance. - A new Irish School of Performing Arts, expanding the established Music and Drama programmes to include a generic Performing Arts Degree and Arts Administration programme
Teaching of Science and Technology
- an enhanced, high quality Computing Sciences portfolio focusing on established sectors of activity and HE Skills needs in the city region with new programmes in Mathematics and Statistics - We fully endorse the concept of an Institute for Sustainable Technologies identified by the University in its recent bid to DEL and acknowledged in the ILEX report. Such a centre offers the opportunity to develop a viable interface between classroom based learning and practical experimentation in technology and enterprise, so that the „walls‟ of the „campus‟ are open and alive to innovation and sharing of skills, a truly innovative centre of learning and entrepreneurial training to be established with private sector, international, EU and regional funding. This centre could combine science with new skills training for genuinely sustainable technology and enterprise, in the fields of renewable energy, information technology, and innovative business and marketing practices. It offers the opportunity to expand the University‟s excellent record of teaching in the
32 „A Future for Architectural Education in Ireland‟ Professor John Worthington for The Royal Institute of the Architects of Ireland 2005
Part 6: A proposal for the growth of the Higher Education provision 241 241 environmental sciences into the Magee campus and for students of sustainable technologies at Magee to avail of existing teaching provision in environmental sciences. - Engineering, contingent upon industrial placement and collaboration with local and global engineering companies. This is an area of particular importance to local businesses, which will benefit from the industrial linkages which this initiative will bring. - The further development of the Centre of Excellence in Intelligent Systems.
Teaching related to Health and Well Being
- The expansion of the world class science research and teaching base in Biomedical Sciences to the Magee campus and related research in Biochemistry, with strong links to the Derry~Londonderry campus as a foundation for the establishment of a Derry-Londonderry Medical School in the plan period (see below) - We also applaud the establishment of an Institute of Health and Well- being in conjunction with critical partners such as Altnagelvin Hospital, the Western Trust, DHSSPS and the BMA - The development of programmes in Sports Science, focusing on „science and performance‟ but also using the unique resource of the Foyle to develop water sports and golf in Derry as national centres of excellence. These are highly attractive programmes – for example, in the East Midlands five of the universities offer such programmes – with combinations offering 82 single and joint honours programmes. - an expanded Health and Social Care portfolio expanding and specialising in teaching and researching Nursing with the addition of Children‟s Nursing, Midwifery and Allied Health Professions (AHPs) in concert with expanded provision in Clinical Psychology, Social Work and Social Policy with a special focus, as national centres of excellence, on Primary Care, Mental Health and Disability Studies.
We have not considered in this report the additional student number requirement for a Medical School in the city and we recognise that this is subject to a separate funding stream and bidding process. We recognise however the critical importance of a medical research and teaching faculty to the community and the health economy of the North West. A medical school has a number of clear benefits including that it:
a) facilitates the recruitment and retention of clinicians and allied health professionals in a way which is not possible in areas remote from such a facility; and b) generates an enhanced research programme, which acts as a substantial investment in itself to the local economy.
In this report we fully endorse the capacity building of health programmes especially nursing and including mental health, social care and bio-sciences in the University. We also welcome the existing research excellence in Derry-Londonderry, especially the new C-TRIC centre at Altnagelvin and the importance of such research to medicine.
Part 6: A proposal for the growth of the Higher Education provision 242 242
The enhancement of Health, Social Care and Biosciences programmes in Derry~Londonderry would have the added advantages of helping to drive increased employment in the Health Sector and meeting the health targets emerging for the regeneration plan
Nearly all new medical schools in the UK in the past 15 years have been the result of collaboration between the NHS and more than one university. We recognise that Altnagelvin is the only acute hospital of sufficient standing in the North West to accommodate such a school - university interests apart – and that this will have implications for the expansion of Biomedical Sciences research and teaching within the expanded University in Derry~Londonderry. We strongly recommend the establishment of a Medical School Working Group between all interested parties to determine how best to establish a medical school in the city to serve the North West.
Part 6: A proposal for the growth of the Higher Education provision 243 243 7.0 Student Numbers and MaSN:
In relation to student numbers and MaSN at the University we have
a) adopted the ILEX Research Study‟s range of 7,800-10,000 FTE undergraduates for university on-campus provision as our starting point; b) reflected on the implications of providing the portfolio of subjects set out in Section 5 in relation to university provision; and c) incorporated the University‟s current plan and aspects of the U4D Business Plan and the FHE Sub-Group Comparative Data.
In relation to HE in FE provision, at the NWRC we have recommended a growth from 750 to 1,500 FT (MaSN) two year foundation degrees (FDs) or equivalent HE provision.
At Magee we have agreed that we should target a 6,700 full time on-campus UK/EU undergraduate population with a MaSN of 6,000 plus 700 being DHSSPS funded programmes in Nursing, Children‟s Nursing and Midwifery and AHP programmes, representing a modest increase of 200 FTEs on the existing health related funded numbers.
In total this suggested expanded provision delivers a three-fold increase in the current MASN (2,000) attributable to Magee and a four-fold increase in the current MaSN bid (1,000) by the University to DEL for ASNs.
These targets are below the aspirations of U4D in its vision for a 2020 university. However, if the plan is linked to a successful regeneration strategy, we recognise that the delivery of this agreed proposition will act as a catalyst for future growth and the further development of both the University and the city.
Table 1 illustrates this potential breakdown by FTE and student numbers. The Home/EU full to part time undergraduate ratio is 1:0.2.
Part 6: A proposal for the growth of the Higher Education provision 244 244 Table 1 Breakdown of student numbers by mode - Derry 2020
Student numbers by mode Source of revenue Type Quantity FTE multiplier FTE FT PT Home/EU FTUG 6000 1 6000 MaSN 6000 DHSSPS FT/UG 700 1 700 DHSSPS 700 Home/EU PTUG 0.6 900 1500 Home/EU FTPG 500 1 500 Home/EU PTPG 0.6 300 500 NonEuro FTUG 1000 1 1000
Total FT Students 8200 Total PT Students 2000 Total Students 10200 Total FTE 9400
A number of points require clarification:
a) International (non Home and non EU) students pay full cost fees b) Part time and post graduate home and EU students are not controlled through MaSN, As such MaSN only pertains to funded home and EU full time undergraduates not allied to medicine (e.g. nursing and Allied to Health Professionals), who are funded by the DHSSPS. c) Medical numbers would be additional to the above. d) We could do better than this plan in the recruitment of postgraduate students, if the academic, environmental and cultural standing of the city and university in Derry-Londonderry were achieved as in this plan.
The University of Ulster has submitted a proposal to DEL for an additional 1,000 MaSN UG FT student numbers by 2015. We are pleased to support this as a de minimus step towards a university of 9,400 FTE students by 2020. We recommend that an additional allocation of 1,000 more MaSN be made for 2015 based on this proposition. This would bring the target MaSN to 4,000 by 2015 and 6,000 by 2020.
Part 6: A proposal for the growth of the Higher Education provision 245 245 8.0 Research
The ILEX-FHESG report on university provision in the city identified several internationally renowned centres of research in the University at Magee but, while acknowledging the difficulties attendant on measuring research performance in a single campus of a unitary institution, concluded a particular focus was required in the development of more high quality research activity. There is plenty of evidence that high quality research in universities leads to commercial innovation, sustainable employment and wealth creation. Successful centres of research add credibility to a city‟s case for inward investment.
The accompanying increase in academic staff will assist in the enhancement of research capability, with more RAE-based income, more external grants and more funding from commercial collaboration. New postgraduate courses based on the developing research strengths will be offered, attracting local, national and international graduates. The appointments process for new staff will ensure that not only the quality of teaching and learning is assured, but that research strength and technology and knowledge transfer capability and capacity are also greatly enhanced. The growth of research strength in a HE institution in this way is often based substantially on the „organic‟ development delivered by academic staff employed to deliver teaching on a varied portfolio of course such as those described in Section 6 above and to undertake research within established groups. But it is unlikely that this natural progression alone will deliver the scale and speed of change in the research profile which is needed. In this report we recommend a more interventionist approach.
UK universities‟ experience with the RAE process and the achievements of SFI in the Republic of Ireland demonstrate how important is the direct recruitment of top class research leadership and talent – often from overseas and from the Diaspora. World class university centres of research, for example ECIT in Belfast and the Tyndall Institute in Cork, have been established with investment from the universities themselves, from the economic development agencies, from the EU, from philanthropists and from business and industry. Prominent in their success is the role of the research professors, their post-doctoral research staff, their PhD students and their support staff.
An ongoing and substantial programme of targeted recruitment of research talent, over and above teaching staff requirements and focussing on a cluster of well supported and high performing research centres, will deliver further significant benefits to Derry in terms of academic and commercial credibility as well as economic outcomes. Such a targeted intervention has the added advantage of being less dependent on the long rise times associated with developments in undergraduate teaching, for example, and might be initiated on a relatively short timescale adding to the attractiveness of the entire project and providing independent and rapid avenues for increase in non-MaSN research based learning. The presence of such a strengthened and expanded creative research community in the city, attracted by the quality of life offering as well as career opportunity, itself adds to the credibility and value of the Derry proposition.
Whilst the precise focus of such research intervention is beyond the scope of this report, it is useful to consider the possibilities offered by innovative combinations and expansions of the current research strengths at the University notably in STEM, health and humanities, (Biomedical Sciences, Nursing, Environmental Sciences, Psychology, Intelligent Systems and Robotics, Built Environment,
Part 6: A proposal for the growth of the Higher Education provision 246 246
Nanotechnology and Advanced Materials, Law and Celtic Studies), which might be developed in Derry to support the this 2020 vision including
a) the clinical and translational opportunities offered by a strategic alliance with Altnagelvin Hospital, the Western Trust and the C-TRIC facility, which have the potential to produce world class centres of research and which would contribute strongly to the economic strength of the region. The creation of an Institute of Health and Wellbeing, which will include „organic‟ research in nursing and psychology, might be expanded rapidly to incorporate high- powered Centres for Neurobiology & Neuro-Science, Vascular Medicine and Personalised Medicine. b) Further investment in the established centre of excellence in the Institute of Intelligent Systems and Robotics which together with (a) will also underpin the proposed Centre of Excellence in Medical Imaging (CEMI). c) Existing research excellence in the University Research Institutes for Advanced Materials, Built Environment and Environmental Sciences can be linked with Intelligent Systems and Robotics and expanded toward the development of a strong research base within the Institute of Sustainable Technologies not only capitalising on the exponential increase in demand for low-carbon technologies but also might encompass research in sustainable development. d) International research strengths in earthquake physics, hydrological sciences and satellite remote sensing might also be combined with the social sciences expertise in INCORE and the University‟s UNESCO Centre to develop a Centre for Disaster Risk Reduction. e) We also acknowledge existing strengths in research in Law and in Celtic Studies both which performed very creditably in the 2008 RAE. These existing research foci could also avail of support under this scheme.
The above are illustrative of how innovative investment in existing strengths in research would build capacity. They share common criteria of being multi- disciplinary, complementary, include both basic and translational programmes and engage in a partnership with the local community as participants in research agenda. Wherever appropriate, the objective is to make joint appointments between industrial partners, including the Western Trust and the University, filling posts at the international excellence level.
In support of these interventions a target for 2020 should be the creation of 20 more research chairs with appropriate investment in support staff, equipment and facilities. This will result in up to 150 additional post-doctoral researchers and PhD students, and at least 10 new postgraduate courses, each aiming to recruit up to 20 students. Such a programme will make a major contribution to the University profile, status and the international credibility of Derry~Londonderry.
Part 6: A proposal for the growth of the Higher Education provision 247 247 9.0 Working with the business and the community
Agreeing this proposition opens up the possibility of the University of Ulster enhancing and invigorating the existing alliance with the business community in Derry~Londonderry to achieve the ambition set out in this proposal.
Such an alliance opens up the possibility of increased private sector investment to support the infrastructure requirements and the enhancement of research at the Derry~Londonderry campus. The alliance also opens up the opportunity for advisory input from the private sector to a city-wide advisory council for HE development. The business case which will be required to support this proposition will detail the opportunities for private sector funding and advisory input more fully.
The relationships built during the Ilex process and, in particular, during the development of this report, provide the foundation for building such an Alliance. This Alliance could play a significant role in realising the ambition set out in this proposal and in fulfilling the three components of the „Regeneration Plan Mission‟ – growing the local economy, promoting equality through improved education and building genuine partnership.
In addition to teaching and research all universities in the UK are engaged in „third stream‟ areas of activity, which essentially transfer the knowledge base of a university‟s teaching and research activities into enterprise and community-based programmes. Such programmes can be supported by government and EU grants. They can also extend into business start up programmes which get embedded in the local economy. Magee already represents a model of what can be achieved in this regard. A number of significant enterprises in Derry have been directly or indirectly supported by the developmental work carried on at Magee:
a) Community/co-operative enterprise. b) The Teaching Company Scheme/Knowledge Transfer Partnership/sandwich placement c) Derry Boston Ventures (DBV) This important programme was initiated by the University at the instance of John Hume MEP MP. It sponsored a succession of trade missions to the United States, including one which led to the Seagate investment in Derry. d) Nurturing new business ventures. In June 1999 the University opened its own Technology and Software Incubator Centre on the Magee campus. e) Consultancy The wide spread of programmes at Magee has permitted the offering of a wide range of consultancy support to enterprises and the community in Derry. All faculties including humanities (language teaching) have been involved. Under these proposals this activity would be greatly expanded increasing investment and serving the business community of the city.
Magee has also been active in breaking down the cultural and physical barriers between „town and gown‟ and we see the expanded provision as having a
Part 6: A proposal for the growth of the Higher Education provision 248 248 strong role in the promotion of the cultural life of the city. We would maintain and extend the existing philosophy and offer an enhanced range of facilities and programmes which are „open-access‟ to the community of North West Ireland. The humanities and the visual and performing arts provide enrichment to the cultural life of a city through, public lectures, exhibitions, conferences, seminars, concerts, dramatic performances, fashion shows and final year degree shows. Libraries, arts centres, coffee shops and restaurants, book shops and galleries can all enrich the public realm of a „university offering‟ as an integral part of the city townscape.
All of these elements are significant variables in attracting university staff and students to the city. If integrated with the city fabric, they can also break down the perceived barriers to participation in higher education.
Part 6: A proposal for the growth of the Higher Education provision 249 249 10.0 Other Strategic Opportunities for Expansion
A thriving international university community enriches the global reach of a city. International students represent valuable exports to the economy and additional cost-plus income to a university.
The capacity for a university to recruit international students depends on:
a) established academic excellence; b) historic links between cities; c) an attractive and welcoming environment; and d) good communications & networks.
The enhanced Derry-Londonderry „University City‟ would have much to offer as a destination for international students. Attractive and career enhancing undergraduate courses, postgraduate course specialisms and PhD research programmes within the successful research centres of excellence, together with the merits of our „location offering‟ would all contribute to a persuasive proposition. The special relationships that Derry~Londonderry has (with Boston for example) create particular opportunities, as does the scale and affection of the North West of Ireland diaspora.
The University of Ulster‟s established international profile, including institutional partnerships in the Far East and the USA, can be built upon to encourage and guide prospective students to the city. This will be especially important in the early years of the development plan, until the Derry-Londonderry higher education offering is fully registered on the international radar. International students also add an important dimension in helping a local community appreciate and celebrate cultural diversity and, as such, can reinforce indigenous community cohesion.
A realistic ambition for a fully developed university in Derry-Londonderry would be a further 1,000 full-time, full-cost international students.
Other full-cost, or better still market-priced, consultancy programmes will play an increasing part in a university offering as financial strictures begin to bite. This is best achieved by the commercialisation of a high quality research capacity and the „private‟ legal status of a university affords considerable scope to develop this element of its activity. Universities can enjoy significant economies of scale where teaching, research and consultancy programmes all feed off each other.
Part 6: A proposal for the growth of the Higher Education provision 250 250 11.0 Marketing
With few exceptions, all universities in the UK need to market their teaching and research programmes, as an integral part of a „location offering‟, inter alia, to attract high quality students and staff to the university and the city. Increasingly this will be supplemented by a greater push to attract commercial consultancy contracts, as if the university were a commercial enterprise.
A commercial business would approach this requirement by identifying the needs of target audiences (students, staff, researchers, inward investors, start-ups, funders etc) and how these needs can be met with reference to the existing and planned resources and facilities. Magee has considerable experience of such a commercial focus in its recent past and recognises the importance of extending this approach to the promotion of taught and research programmes, including marketing to the Republic of Ireland. A high profile STEM recruitment initiative is planned.
Running through this report are three key marketing variables which need to be maximised if the university is to achieve our shared growth and impact ambitions:
a) academic excellence in teaching and research ; b) a broadly based curriculum; and c) a high quality city physical and cultural environment.
For the developing university in Derry-Londonderry to achieve 9,400 students there will need to be a step change in each of these variables to attract „market share‟ from the UK, EU and the international pool of potential students. At present there is no freestanding prospectus which promotes all these variables for the university offering in Derry-Londonderry. We recommend that this is remedied as a matter of urgency. The process of assembling a „Prospectus for Derry‟ will bring partners together in working through the strengths and weaknesses in the „university and city offering‟, building on the strengths and working to address the weaknesses of the combined university and city offering. This process could be an outworking of the regeneration process, with the University and NWRC collaborating with Derry City Council, Invest NI and others through the „Marketing the Derry Opportunity‟ Sectoral Working Group.
Marketing the „University City‟ will also have a positive impact on the objectives of the other ILEX SWGs, including for example enterprise and employment, and tourism, culture arts and leisure. It will also make a contribution to, and benefit from, establishing Derry as a cultural centre, supporting the UK City of Culture 2013 designation.
Part 6: A proposal for the growth of the Higher Education provision 251 251 12.0 Location – Regeneration & Timescale
This proposition is set in the context of the overall economic, physical and social renewal of the city. Our view is that the expansion of higher education, and the University in particular, is one of the key drivers of transformation which will have a positive impact in each of these three domains. While we agree that the issue of location will be important in the final geography of the regenerated city, we acknowledge that there is a range of views on the location issue which we have, for the present, been unable to resolve. We have therefore agreed that we will not make any recommendation on the location issue in this report.
We stress however that this issue needs to be addressed in a timely fashion if the ambitions of this report are to be attained within the agreed timescale.
Part 6: A proposal for the growth of the Higher Education provision 252 252 13.0 Cross Border Perspective
As a „University City‟ of renown, Derry would possess - through its geography, history and culture - the potential to act as unifying force for good in Ireland, the UK, Europe and globally.
The proposed increase in MaSN to 6,000 Home/EU students would, by definition, open up the flow of Irish students cross border, creating greater mutual understanding and cohesiveness in the next generation of business and community leaders. This is perhaps the most valuable attribute of a significant university presence in any location, but of even greater significance where its location, as with Derry-Londonderry, speaks directly to this agenda.
There is clearly an important opportunity in reopening of the historical cross-border recruitment of students, from which the University benefited before the introduction of top-up fees in the UK. A review of the funding of HE is currently underway in the Republic of Ireland which may well result in the introduction of fees there. This would likely result in a rapid increase in recruitment, particularly from the border counties. The recommended expansion of the University in Derry would be ideally placed in space and in time to avail of any such resurgence.
The critical mass of student growth and the development of research proposed in this report will also provide the economies of scale for the city and the University to support institutional collaboration in research, economic development and community projects across Ireland. We believe that this unique potential is not only of significance to the UK and the Republic of Ireland, but also to the wider European Union. Specific exemplars of such collaboration, beyond the community of students and staff and complementing partnership in course provision where this leads to efficiencies in access to specialist teaching and facilities, include:
1. NorthWest Now, the partnership of InvestNI and the IDA to promote the North West region as a „Business and Technology Zone‟ attractive to inward investors and innovative indigenous companies.
2. Programmes in English language training for overseas students, offered on both sides of the border by private organisations and the education sector.
3. Collaboration in health care and related research, building on the work of the proposed Institute of Health and Well Being.
Part 6: A proposal for the growth of the Higher Education provision 253 253 14.0 Finance and Business Plan
Taken together the independent studies referred to in section 3 of this report33conclude that a university in Derry/Londonderry would need to have a critical mass of circa 10,000 FTEs if it were to:
a) offer a full range of programmes b) have maximum economic impact on the local economy and c) be institutionally sustainable
A detailed Business Plan34 for the development of a 10,000+ FTE university in Derry~Londonderry has been prepared for the U4D interest group and is available from U4D. Its assumptions and conclusions are very close to those of the ILEX Research Report, for example in terms of:
a) aspirant size of university; b) the indicative course portfolio; c) the average costs of funding by DEL per student; and d) the impact on GVA and the regional economy
The U4D Business Plan also concludes that:
a) a Derry~Londonderry campus of the University just breaks even at 7,300 FTEs (5,600 MASN35), but is not sustainable and b) 9,200 students the university makes a 5% return, sufficient to be sustainable, prior to the recent major reductions in funding.
It is a government requirement that a university generates a sufficient surplus to be sustainable.
From section 6 above we are recommending a target of 6,700 FTEs (MASN 6,000 and 700 DHSSPS) in 2020 with other modes retained at 2020 levels. This would result in the university employing approximately 1,300 staff and having a turnover of circa £85m.
We are also recommending an increase in FE MaSN to 1,500 (from 750) and the establishment of 20 extra professorships by 2020.
The combined additional revenue costs associated with an expansion of this magnitude are estimated at circa £45m (plus the research costs and the cost of FE MaSN @ £5,000 per FTE)
The capital costs associated with an expansion of this magnitude are estimated at circa £200m.
On capital the U4D Business Plan assumes that the university will benefit from working in partnership with public, third sector and private agencies in funding projects and/or in transfer of risk.
33 (1) The Oxford Economics and PwC study for ILEX (2) University Higher Education in Derry: Reality and Sustainable Aspiration – FHE Sub Group of the Regeneration Process (3) U4D Business Plan 34 „University for Derry -2020 Business Plan‟ U4D January 2010 35 Excluding Medical Students
Part 6: A proposal for the growth of the Higher Education provision 254 254 Table 2, developed in the U4D plan, summarises the potential total capital costs of the university development with the expectation of joint public private or entirely commercial financing wherever possible. The assumptions in terms of space utilisation are those used by the University in its OJEU notice for the expansion in Belfast Cathedral Quarter. The table illustrates how the cost of certain university facilities can be mitigated in such locations by joint ventures with private and public sectors, where additional footfall and/or lettings, to say key workers if student numbers are not met, can provide the conditions for third party investors. For example in the U4D Business Plan all the funding of 5,000 en suite residential units @ £20k per unit are assumed to be financed and the risk borne by the private sector.
Table 2 Potential capital cost of university expansion in the inner city
£m a) Academic and academic related infrastructure 10,000 minus 3,000 existing space full time equivalents (SFTEs) equals 7,000 additional students @ 5.3m 2/FTE Requires 37,100 m 2 additional space in total @ £2,000 /m 2 74.2
b) Sport, leisure and extra mural facilities say 6,500 square metres @ £1,500 m 2/FTE (£9.75m) run as joint ventures with the private sector University capital contribution 3.0
c) Student residences Say additional 5,000 en suite units at £20k per unit (£100m) built entirely by the private sector 0.0
Total Capital Cost to University 77.2 (est. additional private sector investment from (b)&(c) (109.75m) (est. total capital cost of expansion (186.75m)
To achieve a viable university, linked to a sustainable city regeneration programme by 2020, this plan would require (figures to be confirmed):
a) an inner city regeneration programme of circa £50m b) a university investment of £77m funded by - university loan of up to £25m. The Business Plan indicates that this is serviceable. - DEL capital grant over 10 years of say £20m - a fund-raising campaign of £32m c) additional or redistributed DEL revenue funding of £45m per annum to support the additional 5,400 eligible Home/EU FTEs d) additional funding of circa £150,000 to establish each additional research chair e) the facility to cover the 5 year accumulative deficit on the I&E account at circa £10m36 before the University in Derry~Londonderry breaks even.
36 „University for Derry -2020 Business Plan‟ U4D January 2010
Part 6: A proposal for the growth of the Higher Education provision 255 255 15.0 Economic Impact
DN – This section to be re-drafted once Oxford Economics has modelled this proposal.
An integrated university and regeneration plan has the potential to provide significant tangible and intangible returns from the projected public investment.
a) It will break down the barriers to access and participation from those who find universities remote and disengaged from the community b) With a turnover of £85 million the university would deliver a multiplier impact of potentially 2.5 into the local GDP/GVA per annum i.e. c£210m per annum c) When fully developed the University will employ 1,300 staff (an additional 750 above the current level of 550) and generate at least twice that number, indirectly, based on experience in other UK cities. d) The regeneration investment of say £50m can lever in 10 times that in private investment which will add to the university jobs (directly and indirectly) created e) The new jobs will increase the local and national tax revenues and reduce unemployment benefits f) A significant part of the built environment of Derry~Londonderry will be improved physically, enhancing land values and hence acting as the catalyst for further investment. g) An improved public realm will provide a safer and more secure city and increase tourism. A large and respected university that attracts students from outside the region will also contribute substantially to Derry~Londonderry as an attractive tourism destination. Parents and friends will visit students and the quality and attractiveness of city facilities will improve greatly as the city becomes populated by more young people with strong cultural interests. h) The University also has the potential to act as a stimulus to new economic clusters in the economy, including, for example, the creative industries, worth £100bn to the UK economy and geographically appropriate to the North West of Ireland. Innovation and Incubator Workshops to seedbed new industries from the staff and students of the university will be key to its enterprise offering. i) There is also the potential for Derry, with such an evocative waterfront and potential extra curricula offering, to become an established international conference city – linked in part to a University’s need ‘to be recognised’ for staging academic conferences.
The Ilex Research Report modelled the Economic Impact of various levels of expansion of the University. The closest option to the expansion proposed in this paper is option 4 from that report – a 6,200 expansion in FTEs to 11,000 FTEs, with 10,000 at Magee.
In this report it is estimated that an expansion to 10,000 FTEs at Magee, together with associated job creation through foreign direct investment and through the creation and expansion of locally owned businesses, could deliver the following impacts (increases on baselines) by:
2020 2030 2040 Workplace Employment 2,800 7,700 12,600 GVA ( £m, 2003 prices) 98 495 1,086
Note that these impacts depend on a number of assumptions including the course portfolio, the number of jobs created directly and indirectly and the productivity of the industries within which the jobs are created.
The economic impact is being re-modelled as part of the Regeneration Plan Drafting Process.
Part 6: A proposal for the growth of the Higher Education provision 256 256 16.0 Structure and Delivery Plan
The ILEX Research Report identifies various partners but stops short of recommending how this strategy will be delivered. This is a key issue for the city in the context of the delivery of the overall regeneration plan. We are acutely aware of the constraints on the powers and authority of the City Council and ILEX in contrast to the situation in other UK cities.
However, this does not prevent a partnership being established in Derry-Londonderry, similar to those established in other UK cities, to drive and deliver a strategy which focuses on expansion of the University as an integral part of the overall regeneration strategy for the city.
Members of the partnership could include ILEX, the City Council, the University, the private sector and the community/voluntary sector. The partnership could be set up under the auspices of the Strategy Board (or its successor body). One object of the partnership would be to design a Development Framework for the University Quarter, as a guide to future development37, to commission and access funding for enabling works, access gap funding on a project-by-project basis, to act as a catalyst for delivery on key projects and to ensure community support for and commitment to the expansion plan. The University expansion programme would comprise a number of jointly funded projects – e.g. part regeneration, part DEL, part philanthropy, part private sector investment and, as confidence and land values increase in the area, a growth in wholly funded commercial developments.
Such a body would not fetter in any way the independence of their constituent members. It would ensure, however, that there is a shared local responsibility for delivery within a legally constituted body. In the context of a growing university this principle of a shared responsibility is critical.
If the recommendations in this report are followed the delivery of an enhanced and sustainable higher education provision in Derry-Londonderry cannot be the sole responsibility of the University.
37 There is considerable experience in other UK cities of preparing such frameworks/master plans
Part 6: A proposal for the growth of the Higher Education provision 257 257 17.0 Members of the HE Resources Group
The members of the HE Resources Group are:
David Chiddick, representing U4D, is Emeritus Professor of Land Economy at the University of Lincoln. An urban economist and town planner, with post graduate research in transport studies, he is a Chartered Town Planner and as a onetime Chartered Surveyor he was founding editor of the Journal of Property Management. Following an early career as a senior planning officer in strategic planning he has spent the last 30 years in urban regeneration as an academic and practitioner. Appointed a Professor of Land Economy in 1985 he was onetime Pro Vice Chancellor of De Montfort University and, for the past 10 years until his recent retirement, he was founding Vice Chancellor of the University of Lincoln. He has published widely on inner city regeneration and, inter alia, was founding Director of Leicester City Challenge and the Brayford Regeneration Trust and consultant to the V&A and the MerchantTaylors Company. In academe he was a member of the Dearing Committee Review of HE in 1997 and recently chaired a major research study by 14 universities in the UK on new Learning Landscapes in HE. Following several NHS non executive directorships he is currently Chair of the East Midlands Strategic Health Authority. He was awarded a CBE in 2010 for services to higher education.
Gerard Finnegan, Ilex
Gerard Finnegan is a Chartered Accountant who has almost twenty five years experience working in the private and public sectors in Northern Ireland and overseas. He has recently set up his own business as a Management and Economic Development Consultant after having led the PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC) Assurance team in Derry~Londonderry, where he provided advice to small and medium sized business in the West of Northern Ireland for four years.
Gerard has gained almost 15 years experience in Economic Development and Regeneration in the North West. For two years he headed the Finance and Corporate Governance functions at Ilex, Northern Ireland‟s first Urban Regeneration Company. Here he designed, tested and implemented the financial and corporate governance procedures required to support the business. He also compiled and negotiated a £39m Integrated Development Fund bid for the North West.
Prior to that he led the Invest NI team in the North West for eight years during which time he worked as a business and economic advisor for private and public sector enterprises.
He has been a governor of the NWRC and a member of a number of other socio-economic partnerships in Derry~Londonderry. He is currently a council member of Londonderry Chamber of Commerce.
Deirdre Heenan, The University of Ulster
John McCloskey, Vice Chair of the ILEX-Education & Skills SWG and Chair of their Further and Higher Education Sub-Group, is Professor of Geophysics at the University of Ulster where he heads the Geophysics Research Group. After graduating from QUB he taught physics at second level and was awarded the both Institute of Physics Teacher of Physics Award and the Association of Science Teachers in Ireland Science Teacher of the Year award in 1992. He was awarded the European Geophysical Society Publication Award for 1993 for a paper published from his PhD thesis. He was appointed lecturer in the University of Ulster, School of Environmental Sciences the same year and earned a personal chair in Geophysics in 2001. He
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served as Head of the School of Environmental Sciences from 2003-7, as an elected member of the Senate from 2004-8. He recently completed his term as Chair of the Natural Environmental Research Council (NERC) Geophysical Equipment Facility and has served on the governing bodies of the N. Ireland Geological Survey and the British Geophysical Association and on the NERC Services Review Panel and the Royal Irish Academy Geodesy and Geophysics Committee. His research focuses on the physics of earthquakes and, in particular, the identification of regions in which future large earthquakes are likely. John publishes in the foremost science journals and is a regular commentator in the national and international press where he argues for better communication of natural hazards science to vulnerable populations in the developing world.
Fabian Monds, CBE BSc PhD CEng MIET MBCS CCMI, is Emeritus Professor of Information Systems at the University of Ulster. From 1995 until 2000 he was ProVice Chancellor for Planning for the University and Provost of the Magee College (Derry) Campus. Previously he had worked at Purdue University Indiana and at the Queen‟s University of Belfast.
He was BBC Governor for Northern Ireland from 1999 to 2006 and he was the founding Chairman of Invest Northern Ireland from 2001 to 2005.
He has served on many public bodies, for example the NI Information Age Initiative and he co- founded several information technology companies, notably Medical & Scientific Computer Services Ltd. His published work includes the books „An Introduction to Mini and Micro Computers‟ (with Robert McLaughlin) 1981 and „The Business of Electronic Product Development‟ 1984, together with over 70 papers in the fields of information systems, signal processing and entrepreneurship.
He is Chair of the Northern Ireland Centre for Trauma and Transformation in Omagh, Chair of the NI Panel of the UK Teaching Awards, Chair of Omagh Enterprise Company and NI Co-Chair of the Steering Group of the US – Ireland R&D Partnership. He is Vice-Chair of the Governing Body of NW Regional College and recently chaired the Expert Group on International Aspects of HE for DEL.
Richard Osterhus, Education & Skills SWG
Biographies to be added
Part 6: A proposal for the growth of the Higher Education provision 259 259 APPENDIX A: The Derry~Londonderry City Region Economy
Several studies have highlighted the current economic characteristics of Derry-Londonderry and the North West, including the ‘North West Gateway Strategic Alliance Scoping Study’ Indecon March 2009. A report commissioned by U4D ‘A Summary of Higher Education in Northern Ireland: a Review of Evidence’ (see www.u4d.eu) highlights succinctly the disadvantaged state of the local economy: Derry/Strabane is within 1% of the highest rate of economic inactivity in the whole of the UK (Liverpool). The rate in Derry/Strabane is 34.2%, compared to an average of 21.1% in the UK and just 8.3% in the lowest area (St Edmundsbury in Suffolk). Derry-Londonderry has the highest unemployment rate in Northern Ireland at 7.2%, compared to 4.9% in Northern Ireland and 4.2% across the UK. 29% of working age people in Derry-Londonderry and 40% in Strabane has no qualifications, compared with 22% in Northern Ireland. There is a very low level of graduates in the Derry-Londonderry population. 18% of 15 to 75 year olds in Derry-Londonderry have qualifications at ISCED levels 5/6. This compares to 35% in a comparable Scottish city of Aberdeen. Derry-Londonderry has average pay far below the norm. The weekly median pay is £359 in Derry, compared to £417 in Northern Ireland and £478 in the UK. Northern Ireland has the third lowest productivity level of any UK region. Northern Ireland has the lowest R&D investment of any UK region. Universities are a major driver of wealth and contribute substantially to economic well-being. Universities contributed £31bn to the UK economy in the 2007/8 year. The University of Lincoln – only founded in 2001 and which U4D is seeking to emulate in Derry-Londonderry – already generates £187m - £250m a year to the local economy and employs 1,180 staff. Qualifications are good for employment prospects. 89% of working aged adults with degree/professional level qualifications is in employment in the UK, compared with 65% of those with lower school level qualifications. Graduates of working age earn around 70% more per week than their non-graduate counterparts.
The report makes clear that the economy of Derry-Londonderry and Strabane is weak. To become stronger the economy requires higher local skills to drive higher levels of employment and higher pay.
In their skills forecast for the North West Workforce Development Forum area (Derry~Londonderry, Limavady & Strabane), Oxford Economics forecast that in future (2010 – 2020) 54% of the future skills requirement will be for those qualified at NVQ level 4 and above. Current estimates range from 17% - 22%, depending on the dataset reviewed.
The education and skills inequalities faced by residents of Derry~Londonderry can be summarised as follows: Males perform less well at all levels of education than females and young male Protestants now perform worst of all within the DCCA. Pupils on Free School Meals (FSM) perform much worse, on average, than their counterparts who are not eligible for FSM. The range of this variation is significant, with at A Level FSM pupils achieving 2/3 fewer A Levels A-C than non-FSM pupils. The higher the education/skills level reached the more likely you are to be in employment – this relationship holds throughout the city.
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One in four of residents have no qualifications as compared to one in five in Northern Ireland. While less than one third of those unskilled are in employment within some wards (Brandywell) almost two thirds of those similarly skilled are employed in other wards (Kilfennan). At GCSE level although Free School Meals Entitlement (FSME) pupils perform less well than their non-FSME pupils this differential widens significantly when the threshold is further expanded from 5 GCSEs A* -C to 5 GCSEs A* – C including Maths and English. This suggests that fewer pupils from disadvantaged households succeed in achieving Maths and English at grade C or better and there are clear implications for such an outcome in terms of their ability to access STEM subjects following completion of GCSEs. At Key Stage 3 level 5 only one in seven males in some schools achieve the required level in English whereas in other schools 100% reach this level. In general females are more likely to wish to return to education or to take part in training. The key barriers to female participation in training are childcare, cost and confidence.
Part 6: A proposal for the growth of the Higher Education provision 261 261 APPENDIX B: The Demand For Higher Education in the UK and Northern Ireland
Chapter 4 recognised that „attitude surveys of potential HE students and attempts by government to plan for higher education to meet the needs of the professions, public, private and third sectors have proven over decades to be fraught with difficulty‟.
Where surveys have been conducted they are often inclusive. For example whilst research, commissioned by DEL in 2008, into the attitudes of school leavers to HE38 provided valuable insights into the factors which influence demand, no firm conclusions were drawn sufficient to base decisions on potential demand for higher education.
By contrast, UCAS analyses of applicants‟ preferences provide indicative (see next para) student demand by course and location from Home/EU students. For a university in Derry-Londonderry to achieve the necessary growth and hence sustainability, core recruitment will need to be in high-volume recruiting subjects areas in Ireland, GB and globally, where there is a prospect of Derry- Londonderry taking market share. This has been the approach adopted in the formative years of newly established universities in the UK, without prejudice to a focus on academic quality and the student experience.
The following table and analysis must be regarded with a „health warning‟. It represent applications, not applicants and any inference in terms of differences between subjects or institutions need to be qualified in these terms. Each applicant can list up to 5 choices on their UCAS form. This difference can influence the relative level of demand in NI significantly. For example, those having a clear preference for a subject that is offered at only one or two locations in Northern Ireland are more likely to include choices outside of Northern Ireland than those who wish to study a subject that is offered at several locations in Northern Ireland. Also, use of this type of aggregate level data is now more problematic since applicants do not list their choices in order of preference (UCAS made this change in 2008).
Table B1 is a composite summary of two detailed tables39, available on the UCAS website, providing the UK and Northern Ireland UCAS demand
38 „After School: Attitudes and perceptions of Northern Ireland school leavers towards higher and further education, training and employment‟ DEL June 2008 39 http://www.ucas.ac.uk/about_us/stat_services/stats_online/data_tables/subject/2008
Part 6: A proposal for the growth of the Higher Education provision 262 262 preferences from Home/EU applicants by subject and, in Northern Ireland, by institution.
Table B1 gives the top ten subject areas in the UK as a whole, Queens and Ulster. Note that Queens has smaller Business, Social Studies, Built Environment, and Creative Arts and Design (all high demand disciplines in the UK) offerings, and hence demand, than Ulster. By contrast Queens has Medicine and a strong Engineering focus. Engineering, Mathematics and Biological Sciences have grown in attraction in recent years. Queens has no disciplines in the growing Mass Communications subject group which connects, in the better national Media Studies programmes, directly with the growing global Creative Industries sector. Of particular interest from the table is what is not in the top 10. „Technologies‟ has been included in the table as an example of a low recruiting subject group. Other such subjects include all Languages, with historic languages generating extremely low demand and the Physical Sciences, which have declined dramatically in the past decade and resulted in course closures in leading universities. Computing Science demand is cyclical and we are emerging from a prolonged trough in the demand for Computing Science programmes, including Games Computing, a highly commercial sector which grew rapidly ten years ago.
This analysis has informed the portfolio developed for the university in Derry in 2020 and the draft summary prospectus in Appendix C correlates strongly with same.
Within the DEL HE Strategy (international theme) we have also development a ranking for the most popular for international students at Northern Ireland universities:
16.9% Subjects allied to medicine (including medicine) 14.9% Business and Admin. Studies 12.6% Engineering and Technology 7.6% Education 7.1% Social studies 5.9% Physical Sciences 5.6% Biological Sciences 5.2% Creative Arts and Design 4.4% Architecture, Building and Planning 4.2% Languages
With certain notable exceptions (e.g. Physical Sciences and Languages) the strongest discipline areas are similar to those of the UK and NI students.
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A Composite Summary Table of UCAS Applications to UK and NI Universities from UK students ranked by 10 highest to all Ulster Campuses (Source UCAS 2008)
Subject Group Selected sub groups UK QUB Ulster
Business & Admin studies Total 265,805 1315 4563
Business studies 52,914
Management studies 63,719
Finance 7,628
Accounting 30,980
Marketing 17,528
Hospitality, Leisure, Tourism etc 32,485
Subjects allied to Medicine Total 215,647 1041 3796
Social Studies Total 186,107 159 3467
Economics 43,278
Politics 24,796
Sociology 20,408
Social Work 56,786
Architecture, Build & Plan Total 49,882 632 2500
Architecture 26,852
Town and Country Planning 4,266
Mathematical & Comp Sci Total 111,756 1324 1960
Mathematics 33,843
Operational Research 294
Computer Science 49,062
Information Systems 12,306
Artificial Intelligence 351
Creative Arts & Design Total 215,372 523 1896
Fine Art 18,399
Design studies 71,790
Music 23,014
Drama 44,233
Dance 7,198
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Mass Communications Total 48,177 N/A 1450
Media studies 23,733
Journalism 12,263
Law Total 104,914 1202 1393
Biological Sciences Total 173,308 1240 1367
Engineering Total 108,144 1240 862
Mechanical Engineering 27,911
Electronic and Electrical Eng 21,055
Technologies Total 10,515 155 65
Grand Total of National Applications 2,195,637
Part 6: A proposal for the growth of the Higher Education provision 265 265 APPENDIX C: Disciplines and Student Numbers - A Draft Summary Prospectus for 2020
Art, Architecture and Design - Architecture 400 - Art and Design 800 1200
Business and Law - Business 800 - Law 400 1200
Health, Life and Social Sciences - Health 700 - Social Care 300 - Social Sciences 300 - Sports Science 300 1600
Media and Humanities - Media 500 - Humanities 300 - Performing Arts 200 - Arts Administration 200 1200
Science and Technology - Biological/Biomedical Sciences 300 - Computing 400 - Engineering 300 - Mathematics and Statistics 200 - Sustainable Technologies 400 1500
______
Total DHSSPS Funded Full Time Undergraduates 700 ______
Total MASN Funded Full Time Undergraduates 6000 ______
Total Home/EU full time funded undergraduates 6700 ______
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International Full Time Students 1000 Postgraduate full time students 500 ______
Total full time students (UG and PG) 8200 ______
Total Part Time undergraduate students 1500 Total Part Time postgraduate students 500 ______
Total student population 10200 ______
The above excludes:
a) Medical students in Derry-Londonderry 2020 b) HE students based in Further Education Colleges, which are assumed to be „direct funded‟