The Demographics of the U.S. Equine Population 10CHAPTER
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The Demographics of the U.S. Equine Population 10CHAPTER Emily R. Kilby Introduction n this demographic examina- How Many U.S. of Agriculture (USDA), the coun- tion of America’s equine popu- try’s equine inventory was 3.75 mil- Ilation, the numbers clearly Horses Are There? lion in 2002 (USDA 2002). NASS show upward trends in all things This most basic question of demo- reported 3.15 million horses, equestrian over the past fifty years. graphic research is yet to be ponies, donkeys, and mules in 1997 Will that trajectory continue, answered with satisfactory accu- and, in 1992, 2.12 million. In a sin- adding year after year to the cur- racy for the U.S. equine popula- gle decade, the equine population rent ten million population, or will tion. Horses and other equidae are jumped 1.63 million, or 77 percent, loss of open spaces turn the tide as no longer sufficiently critical at least according to USDA. it limits horse housing and riding to national well-being to warrant The American Veterinary Med- room? Will ownership patterns the close government oversight ical Association (AVMA) put the undergo fundamental changes afforded food-producing animals, 2001 horse population at 5.1 mil- when population density, land nor are they so much a part of the lion (AVMA 2002), a 28 percent costs, and escalating environmen- average American experience as to increase over the 4 million calcu- tal controls eliminate the “back- inspire close scrutiny of their num- lated for 1996, which had repre- yard”-keeping concept and make bers and condition. Instead, avail- sented an 18 percent decrease suburban boarding stables unten- able demographic data for horses from the 4.9 million estimated five able? Will horse production and their kin have arisen from spe- years before that. expenses rise in the face of land cial interests or within restricted pressures to the point that eques- populations, resulting in seemingly trian involvement, now a highly conflicting figures. Equine egalitarian pursuit in this coun- The American Horse Council Foundation (AHCF), a funding Census Taking try, truly becomes a rich person’s The American horse population is entity of the American Horse game? not nearly so volatile as these con- Council, commissioned a study in Horse people started fretting flicting figures seem to indicate. 2004 using data provided by horse over these sorts of questions not Indeed, vast changes have occurred owners for the previous year. The long after horses stopped being in equine numbers over the past resulting report put the American beasts of burden in this country century, with as many as six million horse population at 9.2 million in and became mostly recreational horses and mules disappearing in 2003, a 33 percent increase over partners and companions. So far, a single decade, but those losses the 6.9 million reported ten years the equine species has flourished were in response to the mechaniza- before (AHCF 2005). in its nonutilitarian role, but tion of farming and transportation According to the National Agri- there’s no end run around the fact (Table 1). (The lack of data from cultural Statistics Service (NASS), that horses are and always will be 1960 to the present is regrettable. an agency of the U.S. Department large animals in a shrinking natu- USDA surveys ceased to be an accu- ral world. 175 • The commerce of horse involve- Table 1 ment was the survey focus. Respondents in the owner U.S. Equine Population During group had to be at least eight- Mechanization of Agriculture een years old and owner or part- and Transportation owner of a horse(s). Data for youth involvement and for non- Year Number of Horses and Mules owning equestrians may be underreported or excluded. 1900 21,531,635 • The survey posed questions in terms of horses only. No input is 1905 22,077,000 explicitly solicited for other 1910 24,042,882 equidae, which include ponies, miniature horses, donkeys/bur- 1915 26,493,000 ros, and mules. It is not uncom- 1920 25,199,552 mon for recreational horse own- ers to maintain a mix of breeds 1925 22,081,520 and types, and if respondents 1930 18,885,856 answered the questions quite literally, the lesser but still sig- 1935 16,676,000 nificant population of ponies 1940 13,931,531 and asses is not included in the 9.2 million figure. Finally, it 1945 11,629,000 appears that owners and pro- 1950 7,604,000 ducers specializing in minia- ture horses might have been 1955 4,309,000 excluded entirely. 1960 3,089,000 • The survey sample was derived from equestrian membership Source: Adapted from Ensminger (1969). lists and business databases. The 18,648 usable owner/indus- try supplier responses from rate assessment because they did American Horse Council which the report data were sub- not take into account recreational The AHC has surveyed the eco- sequently derived (along with horses, and the horse industry has nomic activity associated with different surveys of horse show attempted only occasionally to horses and horse uses every and racing management) repre- undertake a national horse popula- decade since the mid-1980s. The sent a valid pool for studying tion assessment in the past thirty- data are collected primarily for economic matters, but the sam- six years.) However, it appears to political purposes. By specifying ple would have excluded owners be fairly safe to conclude that the dollars-and-cents figures for a spe- who maintain horses with little 1950s marked the low point of cialized and relatively small recre- or no organizational contact or American equine numbers, with ational and business entity, the commercial involvement. Horse horses and mules largely phased AHC, a lobbying organization, can population figures and activity out of agricultural production and better influence national and state profiles may have been skewed transportation but not yet filling legislatures in matters affecting by this selection process. significant recreational roles. Since horse breeders, owners, trainers, • The primary response mecha- then, the trend in equine numbers dealers, and recreational, sport- nism was through an Internet has been steadily upward. ing, and business users. The larger website, with a small proportion The surveys’ purposes, designs, the numbers shown, the more of mailed questionnaires for and sampling methodology account impact equestrian interests those without computer access. for the three divergent assessments appear to have. Again, the methodology selected of the American equine population The AHC’s population figures against owners outside main- cited above and most likely for the were shaped by the following stream culture, which would not relatively large shifts reportedly study characteristics, as ex- have much effect on an eco- occurring within short intervals plained in the study’s technical nomic impact study but probably as well. appendix (AHCF 2005): underrepresents “invisible” own- 176 The State of the Animals IV: 2007 ers in providing raw equine pop- son stables would be captured dur- vals and produces a demographics ulation figures. ing the list-building process. sourcebook to aid its members in The AHC report’s very precise The most recent USDA enumera- making business and marketing tally of U.S. horses in 2003— tion lists 3.64 million horses and decisions. The data for these reports 9,222,847—is actually the center ponies and 105,358 mules, burros, come from a statistically representa- point of a statistically determined and donkeys in the “other animal tive sample chosen from an estab- range defining a 95 percent confi- production category,” along with lished panel of U.S. households that dence interval. According to these the likes of bison, goats, rabbits, have agreed to participate in surveys calculations, if the same methodol- and bees. Horse/pony numbers on of this nature (Clancy and Rowan ogy were applied a hundred times, income-producing farms increased 2003). The most recent survey, per- ninety-five of the surveys would by one million between 1992 and formed in 2001, found 1.7 percent produce a U.S. horse population 1997 and by another half-million by of responding households reporting figure somewhere between 2002, a 78 percent increase overall. horse ownership, with an average of 8,869,858 and 9,575,837. Given During the same decade, ass num- 2.9 horses per owning household. the methodology’s exclusion of bers nearly doubled between 1992 Using data of this sort for the vari- certain types of horse owners and and 1997, rising from 67,692 to ous species, the AVMA can offer pop- some equine classes, the actual 123,211, then fell back to 105,358 ulation-estimating formulas for vet- equine population seems likely to in 2002. While the progression in erinarians to use in calculating be at the higher end of the range horse/pony numbers reflects the potential client pools in their com- or possibly exceeding that 9.6 mil- population trend reported by other munities. The AVMA’s equine for- lion (rounded) maximum figure. observers, the rather precipitous mula is therefore: divide the com- rise and retreat of ass numbers in a munity population by 2.69 to get U.S. Department single decade begs the question of the number of households, then of Agriculture a sampling or reporting anomaly in multiply the number of households USDA has kept tabs on agricultural one of the years. by 0.05. The national proportion production through periodic cen- Recognizing the shortcomings of of horses to households was deter- suses, starting in 1840. Every five the purely agricultural enumeration mined by this study. years, NASS attempts to survey all model for gathering equine data, Though it does provide a useful U.S.