Survey of Ambient Air Pollution Health Risk Assessment Tools
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Risk Analysis DOI: 10.1111/risa.12540 Survey of Ambient Air Pollution Health Risk Assessment Tools Susan C. Anenberg,1,∗ Anna Belova,2 Jørgen Brandt,3 Neal Fann,4 Sue Greco,5 Sarath Guttikunda,6 Marie-Eve Heroux,7 Fintan Hurley,8 Michal Krzyzanowski,9 Sylvia Medina,10 Brian Miller,8 Kiran Pandey,11 Joachim Roos,12 and Rita Van Dingenen13 Designing air quality policies that improve public health can benefit from information about air pollution health risks and impacts, which include respiratory and cardiovascular diseases and premature death. Several computer-based tools help automate air pollution health im- pact assessments and are being used for a variety of contexts. Expanding information gath- ered for a May 2014 World Health Organization expert meeting, we survey 12 multinational air pollution health impact assessment tools, categorize them according to key technical and operational characteristics, and identify limitations and challenges. Key characteristics in- clude spatial resolution, pollutants and health effect outcomes evaluated, and method for characterizing population exposure, as well as tool format, accessibility, complexity, and de- gree of peer review and application in policy contexts. While many of the tools use com- mon data sources for concentration-response associations, population, and baseline mortality rates, they vary in the exposure information source, format, and degree of technical complex- ity. We find that there is an important tradeoff between technical refinement and accessibility for a broad range of applications. Analysts should apply tools that provide the appropriate geographic scope, resolution, and maximum degree of technical rigor for the intended assess- ment, within resources constraints. A systematic intercomparison of the tools’ inputs, assump- tions, calculations, and results would be helpful to determine the appropriateness of each for different types of assessment. Future work would benefit from accounting for multiple un- certainty sources and integrating ambient air pollution health impact assessment tools with those addressing other related health risks (e.g., smoking, indoor pollution, climate change, vehicle accidents, physical activity). KEY WORDS: Air pollution; health impact assessment tools; mortality; ozone; particulate matter 1Environmental Health Analytics, LLC, Washington, DC, USA. 9Environmental Research Group, King’s College London, Lon- 2Abt Associates, Bethesda, MD, USA. don, UK. 3Department of Environmental Science, Aarhus University, 10French Institute for Public Health Surveillance, Saint Maurice, Roskilde, Denmark. France. 4U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Research Triangle Park, 11The World Bank, Washington, DC, USA. NC, USA. 12Institute of Energy Economics and Rational Use of Energy, Uni- 5Public Health Ontario, Toronto, Ontario, Canada. versity Stuttgart, Stuttgart, Germany. 6Division of Atmospheric Sciences, Desert Research Institute, 13European Commission, Joint Research Centre (JRC), Institute Reno, NV, USA. for Environment and Sustainability (IES), Ispra VA, Italy. 7World Health Organization Regional Office for Europe, Bonn, ∗Address correspondence to Susan Anenberg, Environmental Germany. Health Analytics, LLC, 3704 Ingomar St. NW, Washington, DC, 8Institute of Occupational Medicine, Edinburgh, UK. USA; [email protected]. 1 0272-4332/16/0100-0001$22.00/1 C 2016 Society for Risk Analysis 2 Anenberg et al. 1. INTRODUCTION concentration-response relationships from epidemi- ology studies in one location among a single popula- Decades of toxicological, clinical, and epidemi- tion at low concentrations only. The IER approach ological research demonstrate significant associa- was used by the Global Burden of Disease project to tions between exposure to ambient air pollution and calculate that approximately 3.2 million and 150,000 deleterious human health effects, including respira- premature deaths globally in 2010 were attributable tory disease, cardiovascular disease, and premature to ambient PM and ozone, respectively.(16) In addi- (1–4) 2.5 death. Air pollution is a mixture of components, tion, household air pollution was associated with an including fine particles (PM2.5), ground-level ozone estimated 4 million premature deaths globally in 2010 (O3), oxides of nitrogen (NOx), and oxides of sulfur (approximately 0.5 million overlapping with the esti- (SOx). The health effects of individual air pollutants mated ambient particulate matter deaths), making it have been reviewed in detail to support the setting of the fourth worst health risk factor after high blood ambient air quality guidelines by the World Health pressure, smoking, and alcohol use. Ambient PM , (5) 2.5 Organization and national standards, such as the not including ambient ozone, was the seventh worst (6–9) U.S. National Ambient Air Quality Standards. health risk factor globally based on associated pre- For example, extensive reviews by the U.S. EPA con- mature deaths. clude that long-term exposure to PM2.5 is associated Driven by the extensive body of literature with premature death, heart attacks, irregular heart- demonstrating their health effects, ambient concen- beat, and respiratory symptoms such as aggravated trations of particulate matter and ozone are now (7) asthma and decreased lung function, that short- regulated in many countries. Setting these regu- term exposure to O3 is associated with respiratory ef- lations at levels sufficient to protect public health fects, cardiovascular effects, and premature all-cause typically makes use of a variety of technical inputs, mortality, and that long-term exposure to O3 is as- including estimates of the total population health sociated with respiratory effects, including some ev- burden posed by the pollutants at current concen- idence for association with premature respiratory trations as well as the health benefits of reducing air (8) mortality. Beyond individual pollutants, research is pollution levels. There are a number of variants to also increasingly demonstrating the health effects of these two inputs—for example, analysts may wish to air pollution mixtures, such as from biomass smoke understand the historical trend in the human health (10–12) or traffic. In addition, studies show that some burden of air pollution caused by a specific polluting areas have a confluence of health risks from multiple sector or experienced by a certain subpopulation pollutants, and therefore a multi-pollutant air quality such as children. Over the last decade, governmental, management approach may be efficient at mitigating intergovernmental, and nongovernmental entities (13,14) those risks. have invested in tools that are better able to meet While the majority of epidemiological research this growing demand for more specific and timely has been conducted in North America and Europe, information regarding health impacts associated with insofar as it is available, evidence suggests that the exposure to air pollutants. For example, the U.S. En- associations between air pollutants and health effects vironmental Protection Agency developed the Envi- (10) are relatively consistent around the world. How- ronmental Benefits Mapping and Analysis Program ever, as some studies indicate a leveling off of risk (BenMAP-CE) in part to help fulfill requirements by at high PM2.5 concentrations found in many devel- the Office of Management and Budget and the Clean oping countries, researchers have leveraged epidemi- Air Act to characterize the benefits and costs of U.S. ological studies of ambient PM2.5, typically higher air pollution regulations.(17,18) Other countries and levels of indoor air pollution in developing coun- intergovernmental organizations such as the World tries where solid fuel is used for cooking and home Health Organization and World Bank have invested heating, and very high particulate exposure levels in similar tools to quantify air-pollution-related from cigarette smoking to develop “integrated ex- health impacts for a variety of purposes.(19–21) (15) posure response” (IER) curves. Because the IER Health impact and health burden assessments curves were developed from concentration-response depend strongly on the evidence available from air data taken from around the world, among a vari- pollution epidemiology and exposure science. Re- ety of populations, and across a range of exposure cent advances in these two disciplines have enabled concentrations including high PM2.5 concentrations, health impact assessments to combine findings from they may be more broadly applicable globally than atmospheric science and epidemiology, allowing Survey of Ambient Air Pollution Health Risk Assessment Tools 3 analysts to quantify an increasing number of health ing health impacts, wherein epidemiology-derived outcomes in far greater detail than was previously concentration-response associations and population- possible. Over the last decades, air pollution epi- level exposure estimates are used to determine the demiology has characterized risks of certain health portion of cases of a particular health effect that may outcomes in a population exposed to a higher level of be attributable to air pollution in a particular time pe- air pollution relative to a population exposed to less riod. This method requires information about air pol- air pollution (“relative risk”). Many determinants lution concentration levels, the relationship between of health, including socioeconomic status and other concentrations and health outcomes (which could be risk factors