GUJARAT BJP's Rise to Power

Ghanshyam Shah

The BJP's victory in the 1995 assembly elections in was not due to a temporary wave. The party has slowly built its base among the OBCs, tribals and dalits in the state. Nevertheless, for a majority of the people who voted for the BJP, its 'Hindutva' plank remained a major consideration for extending support to the party. This was particularly true of the urban middle class voters.

I the other hand, displayed no will to fight slightly improved its position in the 1985 elections with a political agenda. During the elections despite the sympathy wave for THIS is not for the first time that the last five years most of the party leaders had Rajiv Gandhi. It bagged 11 seats, and 14.6 Congress(l) has lost power in Gujarat. With spent their energy to get political offices and per cent of the votes. The Congress was the support of Kisan Majdoor Lok Paksha other favours. After winning power in routed in the 1990 assembly poll, securing (KMLP), the Janata Morcha (United Front) Madhya Pradesh in 1993 the party bosses only 33 seats in a house of 182 members. formed the government in 1975.' It was the believed that somehow they would come to Its votes declined from 56 per cent in 1985 dissident Congress leader Chimanbhai Patel power again in 1995. They continued to to a mere 31 per cent in 1990, The Janata who, having been expelled from the party bank upon old strategies and calculations. Dal and the BJP, with partial electoral for his "anti-party" activities after his Individually, each party boss hoped to adjustment on some seats against the resignation as the chief minister, had continue in power and fought for. This tooth Congress, secured 70 and 67 seats organised the KMLP. The Janata Morcha and nail within the party against the rival respectively. They jointly formed the won 86 seats and the KMLP 11. Again the factions. Collectively, however, they had government under the leadership of Congress lost power in the 1990 elections. given up the battle. Their cynicism was so Chimanbhai Patel of the Janata Dal. With the support of the BJP, the Janata Dal, intense that many of them said privately that The main mission of Chimanbhai Patel, headed by Chimanbhai Patel, formed the all Congressmen, except of course during his absence from the chief minister's government. Both the non-Congress chief themselves, deserved to be defeated. office for nearly one-and-a-half decades, ministers - Babubhai Patel and Chimanbhai The BJP's impressive victory, with 122 was to come back to power by any means Patel - had Congress lineages. For the first seats out of 182 (42 per cent of the votes) possible. Being a master manipulator he, time the present chief minister does not have in the 1995 assembly, was not due to a along with all but three other Janata Dal a Congress background. The difference temporary wave. The parly has built up its legislators, joined Chandra Shekhar against between the post-1975 and the 1990 elections support structure brick by brick since the was that the Congress after its defeat in 1975 V P Singh as the Gujarat BJP withdrew rejuvenated itself and evolved new strategies 1960s. Its predecessor, the Jan Sangh, became support to his ministry. In order to play with to expand its base among the deprived active in the state in 1951 soon after its birth. regional sentiments, he toyed with the idea communities. This did not happen after the RSS leaders from Saurashtra, mainly of forming a regional party. He formed the 1990 defeat. Moreover, the Janata Morcha brahmins and rajputs, were the prime movers Janata Dal (Gujarat) to seek the support of and the Janata Dal were loose and ad hoc of the party. Though the party fielded the Congress. Rajiv Gandhi, whose main parties, whereas the candidates in the first three elections, it aim was to topple the VP Singh government, (BJP) is well organised and has evolved opened its account in the state assembly in directed the Gujarat Congress to extend strategics to make inroads into the Congress 1967 by getting one seat. In the midst of unconditional support to Patel, but he did support base. Indira Gandhi's 'garibi hatao' hurricane, the not take the state Congress leaders into For the first time in 1995, it was a straight party improved its position in the 1972 confidence. They faced an odd situation as fight between the Congress and the BJP. In elections by capturing three seats. Its front they had all along fought against Patel and the past the BJP was either a coalition partner organisation, the AkhiI Bharatiya Vidhyarthi or had scat adjustments with the non- Parishad (AVBP), played an important role Congress parties. In this election the BJP in the 1974 Navnirman students' movement. contested for all the 182 seats. The party was a partner in the Janata Morcha By securing 51 per cent of the votes polled which captured power in the 1975 elections; and 20 out of the 25 seats in the 1991 Lok it secured 18 seats, and two of its important Sabha elections, the BJP had demonstrated members, including the present chief its strength.2 It was almost a foregone minister, became ministers. The party used conclusion that the BJP would capture power that opportunity to consolidate its position in the slate. The party leaders were waiting by expanding its patronage network and in the wings to form the government. There recruiting RSS cadres into important was more than one contender for the post government positions. It maintained its of chief minister. After losing power in Uttar identity, though the Jan Sangh was dissolved Pradesh and Madhya Pradesh in the 1993 for a while. elections, the BJP in Gujarat had become The party fought its first election after its Notes: a Seats reserved for STs, having more active. The party changed its strategy and birth as the BJP in 1980. Like other non- than 70 per cent tribal population, priorities to expand its base in view of the Congress parties, it suffered a setback and b Constituencies with between 50 and 75 per cent urban voters. approaching elections. The Congress (I), on could secure only nine seats. The party

165 Economic and Political Weekly January 113-20, 1996 branded him as a pro-rich, upper-caste builder lobby was active and was openly 45 per cent, whereas it was 55 per cent in peasant leader. In the mid-term Lok Sabha supporting one or the other contending the l%7 elections. The 1995 polls have poll in 1991, the Congress entered into an aspirant. In an ad hoc arrangement broken that record. More important, this alliance with the JD (G) by sharing 10 out Chhabildas was made the chief minister, time voter turnout in tribal constituencies of the 26 seals. Both the Congress and the and he was forced to accommodate a large was higher than the state average, i e, 70 per JD (G) experienced a humiliating defeat, number of power seekers in his 38-member cent. The urban constituencies, however, while the BJP won 24 out of 26 seats. ministry, which had two deputy chief continued the earlier pattern of low turnout Urmilaben Patel, the CM's wife, was also ministers. (Table 1). defeated. The BJP had a lead in 119 assembly Factionalism came to the surface again Contrary to general belief, there is no segments out of 182. Between the JD (G) during the distribution of tickets. The senior positive relations hip between the high turnout and the Congress, the performance of the leaders had their own lists for all the 182 and the BJP victory, for the Congress also former was worse. The JD (G) could take constituencies. The JD(G) faction succeeded won seats where the turnout was high. In a lead in only I8 assembly segments (31 per in getting a large chunk, and many of those 30 constituencies the turnout was more than cent) out of the 59 in which it contested, who did not get the party ticket contested 20 per cent higher than in the 1990 elections, whereas the Congress secured a lead in 40 as independents. The BJP also had a and the Congress won 30 per cent of the scats per cent of the segments. The lesson was faction - fight over selection of candidates, from these constituencies. It had a similar clear - the JD (G) had no popular base in and some of the rejected aspirants contested performance in the low turnout constituencies the state. But the Congress high command as independents. There was, however, a as well (Table 2). gave preference to the JD faction within the significant difference between the Congress The BJP secured more voles than the party rather than to its own party loyalists. and the BJP rebels - many of the Congress Congress in all the regions of the state. For reasons having to do with national rebel candidates received support from the Barring two, it captured all the seats in the politics, the prime minister wanted to keep one or the other party faction leaders, urban areas, securing more than 20 per ccnt Gujarat under Congress rule; therefore he whereas this was not so in the case of the more votes than its rival. An independent did not want to displease Chimanbhai Patel. BJP. A majority of the winning independent won one of the remaining two seals with less Soon after the 1991 Lok Sabha election candidates were ex-Congress leaders, while than 100 votes; the Congress captured the some senior Congress leaders from the state no BJP rebel won. Several cases were other seal with a narrow margin of 5 percent. openly advocated withdrawal of support to reported in the press pointing out that sonic The narrowest gap between the Congress the Chimanbhai Patel government. They of the Congress bosses provided financial and ihe BJP was in the tribal constituencies; warned that it was suicidal for the party to and other support to independent candi- the BJP secured 14 out of the 2b ST reserved continue to support him, but the national dates in order to ensure the defeat of the seals. The Congress votes in these consti- leaders did not heed their advice. Chimanbhai Congress. tuencies declined by 2 per cent as compared Patel slowly won over some of the Congress to the last assembly poll. However, the MLAs by promising them positions in the II independent candidates gained ground, ministry, and the JD (G) merged with the securing lour seats. Three of these were the Congress. A senior Congress leader was As else where in the country, voting turnout Congress rebels. made the deputy chief minister. in the assembly elections in Gujarat was the After the 1991 debacle the Congress highest so far. The highest turnout in the past became more and more alienated from its was 63.7 percent, in 1967. In the 1995 polls support structure. No effort was made to 64.36 per cent of voters (66.65 pet cent of rejuvenate the party. All the factions remained males and 61.78 per cent of females) busy in circuit house annexe politics3 with exercised their franchise. The highest turn- the aim of defeating one another. There was out, between 70 and 73 per cent, was in three evidence of cross voting in the Rajya Sabha districts of north Gujarat. Tribal consti- elections in 1993-94. The party avoided tuencies in the country are generally known lacing the electorate as far as possible - for a low level of voter turnout.4 postponed panchayat and municipal elections This was so in Gujarat also. On the whole, under one pretext or the other. This happened between 1952 and 1990 the average voter tor the first time in Gujarat since the inception turnout in tribal constituencies was 49 per of panchayati raj in 1964. The party held cent. In the 1985 election it was the lowest, elections only when it had no other choice, thanks to the directive of the high court. The TABLE: 2: VOTING TURNOUT AND PARTY PERFORMANCE INDIFFERENT CONSTITUENCIE S elections for 54 nagar palikas (municipalities) look place in January, in which the BJP's edge over the Congress was evident. Out of 1.803 seals the Congress won 311 and 16 per cent of the votes, as against 625 seats and 30 per cent of the votes won by the BJP. The independents won the largest number of seats. The Congress had a clear majority in six municipalities whereas the BJP had it in only 12 municipalities. Chimanbhai Patel died in 1994 and the party could not find another leader who could manage the show. The industrial and

166 Economic and Political Weekly January 13-20, 1996 North Gujarat continued to be a strong hold Sharad Joshi in organising the patidar could secure only three out of the 11 SC of the BJP, but the party faced close com- peasants and did not allow Joshi's Kisan reserved seats, it does not necessarily mean petition with the Congress in central Gujarat. Sabha to penetrate in north Gujarat and that the BJP won these seats with the Kheda was the only district in the state in Saurashtra. The campaign on Ram Janma- overwhelming support of dalits. Two points which the Congress captured more than 50 bhoomi and the anti-reservation agitation in need to be mentioned here. First. SCs per cent of the seats (nine out of 17). This 1982 enabled the party to consolidate its constitute, on an average, only 10 per cent is an area of milk co-operatives dominated base among the upper and middle castes of the voters in the reserved constituencies. by patidars and a numerically large kshatriya including patidars, suthar, potters and other Second, urban dalits who are upwardly population. Madhavsinh Solanki enjoys artisan groups. During the 1995 elections mobile, particularly the younger generation, popularity among the kshatriyas. There was the BJP secured more than 65 per cent of began to shift their loyalties from the no significant improvement in the BJP's the votes from these castes in urban and rural Congress to the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP), performance in district - it secured areas (Tabic 6). It may be mentioned that the Republican Party, and even to the BJP. five out of the 13 seats. a majority of its office-bearers both at the This is evident from the survey carried out The Congress and the BJP had a close state and the district level belong to the in Surat city in 1993. Though in urban areas competition in 31 constituencies, with either upper castes." the dalits and adivasis increasingly moved party winning the seat with a margin of 5 The social composition of the Congress towards the BJP, a majority of them in rural per cent or less votes (Table 4). Such a neck- support structure began to change after the areas are still pro-Congress (Table 6 and 7). to-neck fight was more visible in the rural split in the party in 1969. It carved out an The BJP has followed the electoral and tribal constituencies than in the 27 urban image as a pro-poor and pro-backward castes arithmetic of the Congress. It has slowly constituencies. The BJP had a comfortable party. ThealIianc e of the kshatriyas, harijans. built its base among the OBCs, adivasis and victory in urban areas. The Congress and the adivasis and Muslims (KHAM) strategy in dalits. Pro-BJP kshatriya leaders formed BJP candidates lost deposits in 14 and six distribution of party tickets and offices; the the Kshatriya Sabha in north Gujarat to constituencies respectively. 20-point and other poverty alleviation counter the Congress-supported kshatriyas." programmes; reservation for OBCs; and the ShankarsinhThakor.ex-president of the state Ill pro-poor activities of some of the Congress BJP, belongs to the kshatriya (koli-thak or) leaders such as Jinabhai Darjee, Madhavsinh community. The present president from Though voting is an individual act, in Solanki, Narsinh Makwana, etc, gave the it is generally a collective decision of party a firm support base among the OBCs, TABLE: 5:DISTRIBUTION OF RESPONDENTS IN RURAL AREAS BY PARTY PREFERENCE AND REASONS a family in which the voices of males SCs, and STs. However, with the declining (Per rent) dominate. 88 per cent of respondents in rural influence of pro-poor leaders within the Gujarat reported that all members of their party and their infighting since the mid- families all along voted for the same party. 1980s, its pro-poor image was on the wane. Hence, one docs not find a difference between Though Chimanbhai Patel tried to project the male and the female voting pattern,despite himself as pro-poor, no one took him the fact that some parties claim to be more seriously. Several projects promising relief concerned about the emancipation of women to the poor were announced but there were and field more female candidates than their few Congressmen who were committed to rivals. In the 1995 elections in Gujarat there their implementation. This task was left to were only 94 women candidates as against the government machinery which was 2,545 males, of which nine belonged to the increasingly getting engulfed in corruption Congress and three to the BJP. Only three and indifference. The downtrodden began women, all from the Congress, got elected. to resent the blatant corruption. SC and ST In the outgoing house there were four women educated youths were required to pay money members. For the first time the ruling party to get jobs reserved for them, and even docs not have any woman member in the Congressmen could not help them. state assembly. However, a majority of the dalits and The BJP attracted a larger number of adivasis in rural areas still support the younger voters than the Congress, both in Congress (Table 6). Though the Congress urban and rural areas (Tables 6 and 7). A larger number of senior citizens, those TABLE 4: MARGIN OF VOTES FOR WINNING CANDIDATES above 55 years, in the countryside voted for the Congress, but this was not so in the cities. Till the 1960s the Jan Sangh was primarily the party of a section of urban petty traders and professionals belonging to brahmin and bania castes. A few ex-rulers, rajputs from Saurashtra, were also its supporters. Its base among the urban middle castes expanded in the mid-1970s; Slowly the party won over a section of palidars who once supported the Swatantra Party. Its base among this dominant peasant caste has expanded since the early 1980s. The party competed with

167 Economic and Political Weekly January 13-20, 1996 168 Economic and Political Weekly January 13-20, 1996 south Gujarat also is an OBC In the 1990 language and idiom as that of the BJP. The communal riots whose number increased and 1995 elections the party fielded a size- involvement of some Congress workers in particularly after 1985. Under the Congress able number of candidates belonging to the riots in Surat and Vadodara is widely known. regime, which claimed to be their protector, OBCs. The BJP has won over a large section On the other hand, a few Congressmen who they were victims of TADA. In 1993,14.094 of the OBCs in the urban areas and half regarded themselves as secular were helpless persons were arrested in Gujarat under the of those in rural areas (Tables 6 and 7). and frustrated with their own government. act. It was a widespread belief among the The party has co-opted tribal and dalit Muslims suffered the most in a series of Muslim masses that the majority of detainees leaders in different districts and has also hijacked Ambedkar's ideology and TABle 6; PROfile Of RURAL VOTERS BY PARTY Preference symbols. The BJP extended its support to (Per cent) NGOs in opposing the proposed forest bill, which is anti-tribal. The party also supported various struggles of tribals demanding land for cultivation. It won more than 29 per cent of the tribal votes in tribal and non-tribal constituencies. Though this time the BJP did not focus us electoral campaign on Hidutva or against minorities, for most of the BJP voters, that remained a major consideration for extending support to the parly. This was particularly true in the case of the urban middle class. This, however, does not mean that the rural poor were not influenced by the Hindutva ideology. Those who were not enamoured of the Congress' pro-poor promises and programmes voted for the BJP because of its campaign for Hindutva. Of course, their number was very small. A large number of otherwise non-committed urban middle class BJP voters said that corruption or price rise was not the issue which determined their voting behaviour. They felt that the BJP was no better than the Congress. "All politicians are the same... But what is important is that the BJP stands for Hindus and will build Ram mandir in Ayodhya." This was a com- mon retrain. The last-minute ban on the VHP worked as a catalytic force in reviving the Hindutva ideology. Sadhvi Rithambara, Ashok Singhal and many other VHP leaders and sadhus of various sects asked Hindus to vote for the party that promised to protect Hindu interests. Almost all Congress leaders fell that the ban was untimely and none of them defended it. They did argue that the BJP was a communal party but they were not able to convince the masses how and in what way communal politics is dangerous to the nation. They almost conceded the BJP argument that the decision to ban the VHP was meant primarily to please the Muslim voters.

During Congress rule in the 1980s, the parly's support structure among the Muslims, who constitute 10 percent of the population, was considerably eroded. None of the party leaders even attempted to prevent the spread of Hindutva ideology. They only paid a lip- service to secularism. At the most, they chanted in meetings thai the BJP was 'komvadi', communal. During communal riots many of the district-level Congress leaders talked of Muslims in almost the same

Economic and Political Weekly January 13-20, 1996 169 belonged to their community. Even liberal voters as well, but they do not necessarily space is available for other left of centre pro-Congress Muslim leaders like Banduk- have a preference for the BJP. In 1995 the bourgeois parties to compete with the BJP wala were not appeased. The secular Con- BJP successfully built up a campaign and provide an alternative within the present gress leaders were helpless. A number of spreading the impression that it would win parliamentary system. Muslims believed that "we have no choice. the election this time. Except for Muslims, One [Congress] stabs from the back and the it sought the support of all sections of society; Notes other [BJP] stabs from the front. The former though it repeatedly declared that the party is more dangerous than the latter." They felt was not against the minority communities. [Satyakam Joshi supervised the field work. that neither the JD nor the BSP could A pro-BJP tempo dominated the scene. Malvika Munim coded the data with care and formidably challenge the Congress or the Nearly one-fourth of the BJP voters voted Vimal Trivedi processed it in the midst of his BJP. According to them, dalits were no less for the party for no specific reason. They many other commitments. Biswaroop Das read anti-Muslim than the upper or middle caste did it just because others did it. A patidar the manuscript and made useful suggestions. I am grateful to all of them. Hindus. Muslims therefore either abstained who had earlier voted for the Congress, The data for rural ureas was collected as a from voting or voted against the Congress voted for the BJP this time because "it was part of a study on Panchayati Raj in Gujarat'. and the BJP. In all, 118 Muslims contested the trend". An old adivasi from south Nine talukas corresponding to nine state the elections, as many as 66 of them Gujarat said, "every one in our faliya' assembly constituencies in three districts - Surat independent. The BSP fielded 24 Muslims, (locality) tended to support the BJP, so I also in south Gujarat, Mehsana in north Gujarat and and the Congress gave tickets to 10 Muslims supported if. The party's election manifesto Junagadh in Saurashtra - were selected Three mainly in the constituencies having more promising reduction in fare in state transport villages, selected randomly in each taluka, were than 20 per cent Muslim population. These buses and supply of Rs 2 per kg of wheat chosen for data collection. In each village. 10 are urban or semi-urban constituencies. The did influence some voters. An adivasi per cent of the voters were selected randomly BJP did not have any Muslim candidate. landless labourer from south Gujarat said Nearly 5 per cent of the respondents were either not available or refused to answer, and have Only one Muslim got elected as against three that the BJP had made several promises and been dropped from the analysis. These in the previous assembly, and he is an "we hope that it would fulfil them". Some interviews were earned out through structured independent. others, 18 per cent of the BJP voters in rural questionnaires between March 25 to April 25, The Gujarat urban middle class protested areas, wanted to try out the party. They, 1995, soon after the elections against blatant corruption in the admini- however, are not committed to the BJP. The data for urban areas was collected as a stration in 1974. Chimanbhai Patel was their part of the study on 'Communal Consciousness target. Once he was ousted, the society sat IV and Communal Violence' in Sural city in May back and slowly began to accept corruption July 1991 Fifty-three polling booths from as inevitable. However, corruption spread The overall image of the BJP as a pro- municipal wards were selected to interview citizens. From each polling booth. 25 voters further and after 1985 it has crossed all Hindu party has continued. That was the were selected with the help of a random table bounds. One is required to pay a bribe to reason for its support by a large number of for interview The total number of respondents get a peon's or a teacher's post or to get a Hindus, particularly from the upper and was 1,325, from which we could interview 723 ration card, a loan or even a subsidy under middle castes. The party, however, tried to A number of them were either wrongly listed welfare programmes. The urban middle class, downplay its communal i mage in the election or had shifted their residence; some were not though sore over this, somehow managed campaign so as to win over electoral support available at the time of interview; and few to get things done but the poor .suffered the from a cross-section of society. To some avoided us. most because they have no money to pay. extent the party has succeeded in its objective. Since the data presented above was not This was their main complaint against the The BJP has won over a sizeable section of collected as part of an election study, it suffers Congress government, along with the price the OBCs and artisan castes from the from methodological limitations. Our sample is in no way representative of the state assembly rise which has made their lives miserable. Congress. Many of the tribals and dalits constituencies] This was a major consideration for the poor, have not yet shifted their loyalty from the who shifted their support from the Congress Congress to the BJP. The latter, though, has 1 Ghanshyam Shah, 'The 1975 Gujarat Assembly to the BJP. Sixteen per cent of the BJP gained substantial ground which helped it Elections in India', Asian Survey, Volume XVI, supporters hoped that the party would check to win most of the ST and SC reserved seats. No 3, March 1976. prices and corruption (Table 5). This time However, it is too early to say whether it 2 Ghanshyam Shah, 'Tenth Lok Sabha Elections: the BJP promised them a bhay, bhookh one would be able to consolidate its newly- BJP's Victory in Gujarat'. Economic and bhrastachar mukta (free from fear, hunger acquired base. The party may not be able Political Weekly, Volume XXVI, No 51, and corruption) Gujarat. "Let us try it out. to resolve its contradictions. Strongholds of December 21. 1991. What else can we do?" was the stand of many the upper castes and middle classes within 3 The annexe of the circuit house has been almost permanently occupied by a non-committed voter. the BJP would come in the way of its political leaders who operate from that place. government to adopt pro-poor policies, A major advantage of the Congress was Leaders from Delhi come and stay there while that it has around 15 per cent of the voters particularly those having the potential to the local leaders make their representations. as its traditional supporters, committed to endanger their interests. Moreover, the party 4 Myron Weiner and John Osgood Field. 'How the party. They voted for the party in the does not have any leader who openly Tribal Constituencies in India Vote' in Jagadish previous elections and continue to do so champions the cause of the downtrodden. Bhagwati et al (eds) Electoral Politics in the irrespective of its performance. A young The BJP's future also depends upon how the Indian States: Three Disadvantaged Sectors, dalit said that "my grandfather was a Congress plans its future and on the Manohar Book Service, Delhi, 1975. 5 Gajendraprasad Shukla, Bharatiya Janata supporter of the Congress, so was my father, emergence of new secular forces. The Paksha (Gujarat) na Netao', Arthat, Volume and I also believe in the 'panja' (palm) Congress in Gujarat will take time to recover XIV, No I, January-March 1995. from the shock of its defeat. At present, there (Congress symbol)". Some said that the 6 Ghanshyam Shah, 'The BJP and Backward is no will or plan of action to rejuvenate the Congress was an old and experienced party. Castes in Gujarat'. South Asian bulletin. There are of course, anti-Congress traditional party. If the Congress fails to resurrect itself. Volume XIV, No I, 1994.

170 Economic and Political Weekly' January 13-20, 1996