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Long-Term Volcanic Hazard Assessment on El Hierro (Canary Islands)

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Long-Term Volcanic Hazard Assessment on El Hierro (Canary Islands) Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Open Access Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., 2, 1799–1835, 2014 Natural Hazards www.nat-hazards-earth-syst-sci-discuss.net/2/1799/2014/ and Earth System doi:10.5194/nhessd-2-1799-2014 NHESSD © Author(s) 2014. CC Attribution 3.0 License. Sciences Discussions 2, 1799–1835, 2014 This discussion paper is/has been under review for the journal Natural Hazards and Earth Long-term volcanic System Sciences (NHESS). Please refer to the corresponding final paper in NHESS if available. hazard assessment on El Hierro (Canary Long-term volcanic hazard assessment Islands) on El Hierro (Canary Islands) L. Becerril et al. 1 1 1 1 2 2 L. Becerril , S. Bartolini , R. Sobradelo , J. Martí , J. M. Morales , and I. Galindo Title Page 1Institute of Earth Sciences Jaume Almera, ICTJA-CSIC, Group of Volcanology, SIMGEO Abstract Introduction (UB-CSIC) Lluis Sole i Sabaris s/n, 08028 Barcelona, Spain 2 ◦ Instituto Geológico y Minero de España (IGME) c/Alonso Alvarado, 43-2 A 35003-Las Conclusions References Palmas de Gran Canaria, Spain Tables Figures Received: 22 January 2014 – Accepted: 27 January 2014 – Published: 24 February 2014 Correspondence to: L. Becerril ([email protected]) J I Published by Copernicus Publications on behalf of the European Geosciences Union. J I Back Close Full Screen / Esc Printer-friendly Version Interactive Discussion 1799 Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Abstract NHESSD Long-term hazard assessment, one of the bastions of risk-mitigation programs, is re- quired for territorial planning and for developing emergency plans. To ensure qualita- 2, 1799–1835, 2014 tive and representative results, long-term volcanic hazard assessment requires several 5 sequential steps to be completed, which include the compilation of geological and vol- Long-term volcanic canological information, the characterization of past eruptions, spatial and temporal hazard assessment probabilistic studies, and the simulation of different eruptive scenarios. Despite being on El Hierro (Canary a densely populated active volcanic region that receives millions of visitors per year, no Islands) systematic hazard assessment has ever been conducted in the Canary Islands. In this 10 paper we focus our attention on El Hierro, the youngest of the Canary Islands and the L. Becerril et al. most recently affected by an eruption. We analyze the past eruptive activity (how), the spatial probability (where) and the temporal probability (when) of an eruption on the island. By studying the past eruptive behavior of the island and assuming that future Title Page eruptive patterns will be similar, we aim to identify the most likely volcanic scenarios Abstract Introduction 15 and corresponding hazards, which include lava flows, pyroclastic fallout and pyroclastic density currents (PDCs). Finally, we estimate their probability of occurrence. The end Conclusions References result is the first total qualitative volcanic hazard map of the island. Tables Figures 1 Introduction J I The possibility of future eruptive activity, coupled with population growth and economic J I 20 and cultural development in the majority of active volcanic areas, means that preventive Back Close measures against volcanic risk such as the development of volcanic hazard analysis must be undertaken. This type of analysis is a fundamental part of risk management Full Screen / Esc tasks that include the developing of volcanic hazard maps, territorial planning, emer- gency plans, etc. Printer-friendly Version 25 The volcanic hazard of a given area is the probability that it will be affected by a pro- cess of a certain volcanic magnitude within a specific time interval (Fournier d’Albe, Interactive Discussion 1800 Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | 1979). Therefore, volcanic hazard assessment must necessarily be based on good knowledge of the past eruptive history of the volcanic area, which will tell us “how” NHESSD eruptions have occurred. It also requires the spatial probability of occurrence of a haz- 2, 1799–1835, 2014 ard to be determined, i.e. “where” the next eruption can take place (volcanic suscep- 5 tibility) and its extent, as well as its temporal probability, i.e. “when” the next eruption may occur in the near future. Long-term volcanic The complexity of any volcanic system and its associated eruptive processes, to- hazard assessment gether with the lack of data that is typical of so many active volcanoes and volcanic on El Hierro (Canary areas (and in particular those with long periods between eruptions), make volcanic Islands) 10 hazard quantification a challenge. Different steps need to be followed sequentially in any long-term volcanic hazard assessment. The first step consists in evaluating the L. Becerril et al. likelihood of a further eruption, which will provide an indication of which areas are most likely to host future vents (Martí and Felpeto, 2010). The long-term spatial probability Title Page of vent opening can be estimated using structural data. These data can be converted 15 into probability density functions (PDFs) and then combined to obtain the final suscep- Abstract Introduction tibility map (Martin et al., 2004; Felpeto et al., 2007; Connor and Connor, 2009; Martí and Felpeto, 2010; Cappello et al., 2012; Becerril et al., 2013; Bartolini et al., 2013). Conclusions References The next step corresponds to the temporal probability estimation of any possible Tables Figures volcanic event. Long-term forecasting is based on historical and geological data, as well 20 as on theoretical models, and refers to the time window available before the volcanic J I system becomes unstable again. In this regard, some authors use statistical methods based on the Bayesian event-tree for long-term volcanic hazard assessment (Newhall J I and Hoblitt, 2002; Marzocchi et al., 2008; Sobradelo et al., 2010). Back Close Once spatial and temporal probabilities have been estimated, the next step forward 25 consists of computing several scenarios as a means of evaluating the potential extent of Full Screen / Esc the main expected volcanic and associated hazards. Most of these studies are based on the use of simulation models and Geographical Information Systems (GIS) that Printer-friendly Version allow volcanic hazards such as lava flows, PDCs and ash fallout to be modelled and Interactive Discussion 1801 Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | visualized (Felpeto et al., 2007; Toyos et al., 2007; Martí et al., 2012; Alcorn et al., 2013). NHESSD The Canary Islands are the only area of Spain in which volcanic activity has oc- 2, 1799–1835, 2014 curred in last 600 yr and represent one of the world’s principal volcanic zones. The 5 geodynamic environment in which the archipelago lies and the characteristics of its re- cent and historical volcanism suggest that the volcanic activity that has characterized Long-term volcanic this archipelago for more than 60 Ma will continue in the future. However, only few vol- hazard assessment canic hazard studies have ever been conducted in the Canary Islands, mainly over the on El Hierro (Canary previous decade. Most work to date has focused on Tenerife and Lanzarote (Gómez- Islands) 10 Fernández, 1996; Araña et al., 2000; Felpeto et al., 2001, 2007; Felpeto, 2002; Car- racedo et al., 2004a, b, 2005; Martí and Felpeto, 2010; Sobradelo et al., 2010; Martí L. Becerril et al. et al., 2012; Bartolini et al., 2013), although other studies have been carried out on Gran Canaria (Rodríguez-González et al., 2009), El Hierro (Becerril et al., 2013) and Title Page one for the Canary Islands as a whole (Sobradelo et al., 2011). 15 In this study we focus on El Hierro and conduct a long-term volcanic hazard assess- Abstract Introduction ment by taking into account spatial and temporal probabilities. Despite being small and submarine in nature (Martí et al., 2013), the most recent eruption on El Hierro (Octo- Conclusions References ber 2011–February 2012) highlighted the need for volcanic hazard studies given the Tables Figures negative impact on tourism and the local economy of any volcanic event. El Hierro has 20 a population of 10 960 inhabitants (www.ine.es), 0.51 % of the total population of the J I Canary Islands. Its main economic resources are tourism and fishery, two aspects that may be – and in fact were – seriously affected by the impact of volcanic activity. J I In this work we present a systematic analysis of the volcanic hazard present on this Back Close island that includes the following steps: (1) characterization of past volcanism in the 25 study area; (2) estimation of spatio-temporal probabilities; (3) simulation of the most Full Screen / Esc probable eruptive scenarios; and (4) assessment of the volcanic hazard. Printer-friendly Version Interactive Discussion 1802 Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | 2 Geological setting NHESSD The Canary Islands extend for roughly 500 km in a chain that has developed on the pas- sive margin of the African Plate in the eastern central Atlantic Ocean (Fig. 1). The Ca- 2, 1799–1835, 2014 narian Archipelago is the result of long-term volcanic and tectonic activity that started 5 around 60 Ma ago (Robertson and Stillman, 1979; Le Bas et al., 1986; Araña and Ortiz, Long-term volcanic 1991; Marinoni and Pasquaré, 1994). A number of contrasting models – including the hazard assessment presence of a hotspot, the propagation of a fracture from the Atlas and mantle decom- on El Hierro (Canary pression melting associated with uplift of tectonic blocks – have been mooted to explain Islands) the origin of the Canary Islands (Le-Pichon and Fox, 1971; Anguita and Hernán, 1975; 10 Schmincke, 1982; Araña and Ortiz, 1991; Hoernle and Schmincke, 1993; Hoernle et al., L. Becerril et al. 1995; Carracedo et al., 1998; Anguita and Hernán, 2000). Although all of the islands (except La Gomera) have been witness to Holocene vol- canic activity, volcanism in historical times has been restricted to La Palma, Lanzarote, Title Page El Hierro and Tenerife.
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