2021 Transit Development Plan Update May 2021
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2021 Transit Development Plan Update May 2021 Presented to Greenville Transit Authority Prepared by Connetics Transportation Group Table of Contents Executive Summary ..................................................................................................................................................... 1 Fixed Route Service Expansion Update ...................................................................................................................... 6 Capital Cost Update ................................................................................................................................................... 16 Countywide Demand Response Plan ....................................................................................................................... 22 List of Figures Figure 1. Projected Annual Greenlink Operating Budget by Time Period (FY20$, in M) ......................................... 3 Figure 2. Projected Annual Greenlink Capital Budget (FY20$, in M) ........................................................................ 3 Figure 3. Proposed Radial Routes .............................................................................................................................. 8 Figure 4. Proposed Connector Routes........................................................................................................................ 9 Figure 5. Proposed Crosstown Routes ..................................................................................................................... 10 Figure 6. Proposed Circulator Routes ....................................................................................................................... 11 Figure 7. Job Coverage for Expanded Fixed Route Network ................................................................................... 15 Figure 8. Stop Location Analysis ............................................................................................................................... 17 Figure 9. Peer Operators of Countywide Demand Response .................................................................................. 22 Figure 10. Zone Concept Overview ........................................................................................................................... 25 Figure 11. Zone Concept Anchor Points ................................................................................................................... 26 List of Tables Table 1. Projected Operations Cost by Project ........................................................................................................... 4 Table 2. Projected Capital Cost by Project ................................................................................................................. 5 Table 3. Fixed Route Expansion Changes .................................................................................................................. 6 Table 4. Fixed Route Expansion Service Summary ................................................................................................... 7 Table 5. Projected Operating Cost for Fixed Route Expansion................................................................................ 12 Table 6. GAP Productivities by Route Added ............................................................................................................ 13 Table 7. Bus Stop Infrastructure Needs by Route ................................................................................................... 19 Table 8. Vehicle Procurement Plan .......................................................................................................................... 21 Table 9. Peer Operator Population Density .............................................................................................................. 23 Table 10. Demand Response Peer Analysis ............................................................................................................ 23 Table 11. Zone Concept Ridership and Operating Statistics .................................................................................. 27 Table 12. Zone Concept Annual Cost Estimates ..................................................................................................... 27 Executive Summary The dawn of the 2020s is an exciting time for the Greenville metropolitan area. The region continues to expand, with robust population and employment growth. Between 2010 and 2019 the county population grew by 16%, adding to 72,000 residents. Residential, commercial, and office development is abundant, and Greenville has densified as more residents move to the county. This growth is putting pressure on the region to provide more urban amenities and services, including Greenlink transit service. A Necessary Update As development changes where people live and work in Greenville County, and how they commute between the two, it is necessary to review previous assumptions and ensure future plans match the evolving landscape. This document is an update to the 2020-24 Transit Development Plan, which was adopted by the Greenville Transit Authority Board of Directors in April 2018. Since the previous plan was completed only three years ago, it is generally agreed that the previous analysis, findings, and decisions are still appropriate. Thus, this document focuses on the changes to travel markets and developments that have occurred in the intervening three years, and updates transit service recommendations to best serve Greenville residents. The TDP Update focuses on three specific analyses: • A review and update to the fixed route service expansion plan; • An analysis of future capital costs, including new maintenance facility, additional bus stop locations, and accompanying vehicle plan for the proposed service expansion plan; and • A plan for countywide demand response service to provide transit service to residents of the outer parts of Greenville County who do not have access to fixed route bus service. The Next Ten Years A significant expansion of Greenlink services is planned over the next ten years to meet the transportation needs of Greenville County residents. Projected Operating Budget Needs The Greenlink annual operating budget for 2021 is projected at $7.03 million (FY20$), including both fixed route and GAP paratransit service, but not including the downtown trolley. If all proposed operating plans are realized, Greenlink would need an additional $16.07 million in annual funds (FY20$) to operate the expanded system. The full expansion plan includes: • $8.54 million in cost to increase service to the core Greenlink network, including: o Increases in Weekday 30-minute peak frequency on core routes o Increases in Saturday 30-minute frequency on core routes o New Sunday service • $6.79 million in cost for route expansion, including: o 15 new routes o Adjustments to two existing Greenlink routes (504 and 506) • $0.74 million in additional GAP service, including: Greenlink 2021 Transit Development Plan Update Page 1 o Additional Saturday and Sunday service to match service expansion in the core network o Additional geographic coverage to match fixed route expansion Figure 1 provides the growth in annual operating cost by time period, while Table 1 provides a more detailed look at operating cost of individual projects. Projected Capital Budget Needs A robust capital plan accompanies Greenlink’s proposed service expansion, including new stop infrastructure, new bus vehicles, and a new maintenance facility. If all proposed capital plans are realized, Greenlink would need between $55.68 million and $95.33 million (FY20$) in capital dollars to realize the expanded system. However, the implementation timeline for these projects stretches past 2029, so the year over year impact of this proposed capital budget is uncertain. The capital expansion plan includes: • $28.62 million (FY20$) to construct a new maintenance facility • $7.13 million (FY20$) in bus stop improvements for expansion routes • A range of $19.95 million to $59.60 million (FY20$) in bus vehicle capital costs, depending on the type of propulsion selected Figure 2 provides the capital cost by time period, while Table 2 provides a more detailed look at capital cost of individual projects. Countywide Demand Response Concept This TDP Update also explores the feasibility of operating demand response in the outer parts of Greenville County beyond where fixed route and GAP service would operate. The analysis shows a need between $5.36 million and $7.44 million (FY20$), annually, to operate countywide demand response outside of the expanded fixed route network. The range of cost depends on whether the concept is directly operated or purchased transportation. A capital cost of $1.76 million (FY20$) would also be needed to purchase 22 Ford Transit vehicles for the countywide demand response concept. Greenlink 2021 Transit Development Plan Update Page 2 Figure 1. Projected Annual Greenlink Operating Budget by Time Period (FY20$, in M) Projected Annual Operating Budget (FY20$, in M) $25.0 $20.0 $15.0 $10.0 $5.0 Annual Operating Budget (in M) (in Budget Operating Annual $- Existing 2021-24 2025-29 After 2029 Fixed Route GAP Figure 2. Projected Annual Greenlink Capital Budget (FY20$, in M) Capital Cost Estimate (FY20$, in M) $50.0 $45.0 $40.0 $35.0 $30.0 $25.0 $20.0 Total Capital Cost Capital Total $15.0 $10.0 $5.0 $- 2021-24 2025-29 After 2029 Infrastructure Costs Vehicle Costs (CNG) Additional Cost for Electric