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The Time to Begin Plans for COVID-19 Eradication Is Now

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The Time to Begin Plans for COVID-19 Eradication Is Now SHORT COMMUNICATION The time to begin plans for COVID-19 eradication is now T Jacob Johna, Dhanya Dharmapalanb a PhD (Virology), FRCP (Paediatrics), Former Professor & Head, Department of Clinical Virology, Christian Medical College, Vellore, India b MBBS, MD, Consultant, Paediatric Infectious Diseases at Apollo Hospitals, Navi Mumbai, India Abstract After the world recovers from the pandemic of SARS-CoV-2, it is most likely to stabilise as endemic and seasonal, deserving/demanding control efforts perpetually in all countries, unless it can be eradicated. The risk of mortality is high among those above 65 years and those with chronic “lifestyle” diseases. Endemic circulation will, therefore, take a heavy toll on life annually. Eradication is an extreme form of control, eliminating the disease permanently and globally. Effective vaccines are expected in the near future. As the pandemic abates, herd immunity will be very high, enabling early eradication by additional build-up of a vaccine-induced herd immunity. Public memory of the pandemic will be fresh, which will assist in social mobilisation and fund raising towards eradication. If time is lost, the infection is likely to become non-eradicable as domestic/farmed animals may become fresh reservoirs. Resolve to eradicate and designing its road-map must be made at the earliest. Key words: COVID-19, pandemics, vaccines, global health “We cannot solve our problems with the globally.1 Risks of severe disease and death are same thinking we used when we created them.” high in those above 65 years and those with chronic (Einstein) non-communicable diseases (co-morbidities).2 Children, adolescents, and young healthy adults The COVID-19 pandemic, a veritable tend to develop asymptomatic infection or only mild symptoms and are at low risk of death. nightmare The mode and speed of the spread of SARS- The pandemic of the Coronavirus disease- CoV-2 resembles that of influenza viruses. The 2019 (COVID-19), caused by an infection with 1918 influenza pandemic (causative virus Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus identified by paleo-virology as A H1N1) had three type 2 (SARS-CoV-2), has sowed disease, death, successive waves in March, September– and devastation in its path across all countries of November, and early 1919.3 H1N1 virus was the world. By the end of June 2020, it has caused replaced by H2N2 when it became a pandemic in over 9.4 million cases and over 480,000 deaths 1957, which was then replaced by the H3N2 November 2020. Christian Journal for Global Health 7(4) 48 John & Dharmapalan pandemic virus of 1968,4 but the 2009 pandemic everywhere using non-pharmacological H1N1 virus did not replace H3N2, and since then, interventions. both H1N1 and H3N2 are endemic globally. Each To presume it will die out will turn out to be pandemic virus became globally endemic unless a huge risk if it does not. The world will be safer replaced by another influenza virus, and SARS- if we presume the opposite—that it will become CoV-2 will most likely emerge as globally pan-endemic when herd immunity grows endemic.5 We have no reason to expect a less sufficiently high.5 In the medium term, as the virulent beta coronavirus to emerge and replace disease remains endemic with annual seasonal this highly virulent pandemic virus. prevalence, senior citizens and those with co- Two other coronaviruses have emerged as morbidities will have to live in fear of infection and zoonosis first and then human-to-human its consequences, unless effective anti-viral transmission continued: the SARS-CoV-1 and the therapy is developed or at least one safe and MERS-CoV, causing severe acute respiratory effective vaccine becomes available, accessible, syndrome (SARS) and the Middle-Eastern and affordable even in low income countries, or respiratory syndrome, respectively. The former did unless the disease is eradicated. become a pandemic involving 27 countries, resulting in 8,096 cases and 774 deaths.6 By Can COVID-19 be eradicated? diligently case diagnosing, contact tracing, and Disease eradication is defined as permanent quarantining, SARS was eradicated within one reduction to zero of the worldwide incidence of the year without a vaccine or anti-viral drug. causative infection, with deliberate efforts.8 For This approach failed with SARS-CoV-2 COVID-19 eradication, the coronavirus because of greater transmission efficiency and the transmission must be interrupted globally. fact that infected asymptomatic and pre- Three biomedical criteria determine if a symptomatic (during incubation period) disease can be eradicated: i) availability of vaccine individuals transmitted infection, whereas SARS for primary prevention; ii) availability of a virus was transmitted only after a fever developed, diagnostic tool to reliably detect infection; iii) allowing case detection and breaking of absence of extra-human reservoir of the agent.8 transmission chains. Fortunately, it has not re- Although SARS-CoV-2 only recently appeared as zoonosis in the country of origin as jumped species from bats to humans as a zoonosis, precautions were taken. it is now an anthroponosis, meaning efficiently MERS-CoV has appeared several times as a spreading person-to-person, hence theoretically zoonosis, often resulting in limited person-to- eradicable.8 The presumptive parent virus in the person transmission. Further spread could be bat is a millennia old. Its emergence as an interrupted so that it has neither persisted as emerging anthroponosis of zoonotic origin had not anthroponosis nor became a pandemic. However, happened before 2019, so we have to presume it is when imported into the Korean Republic, it caused a one-off event. As an anthroponosis, it is a major epidemic, but once detected and when non- eradicable, in spite of its original reservoir pharmacological interventions were applied, it remaining in nature. However, constant vigilance 7 could be eliminated. SARS-CoV-2 is a highly and escalated surveillance for any new zoonotic to efficient person-to-person transmitter and, within a human introduction is needed. span of 4 months from first recognition in China, it If such re-introductions recur, eradication has reached all United Nations member countries. may have setbacks, but we will know if It is now fully entrenched globally as reintroduction, if any, since surveillance will be of anthroponosis and it would be naive and foolhardy eradication quality. Thus, if we fear reintroduction to expect that its transmission could be interrupted of either the same or another coronavirus capable of easy/rapid spread, we must eradicate the current November 2020. Christian Journal for Global Health 7(4) 49 John & Dharmapalan one, instead of remaining unprepared for such are always possible.10 Although such infections eventualities. have been stray instances of reverse zoonosis Diagnostic tests like reverse transcription (human-to-vertebrate transmission), the natural polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) and antibody extension of transmissibility is continued enzootic tests are already available. SARS-CoV-2 is transmission. excreted in the faeces and found in sewage. Non-pharmacological deterrents of Environmental surveillance of sewage for SARS- transmission require social distancing. Humans CoV-2 can, therefore, be used to detect infection if need social interactions from the cradle to the during the eradication programme it silently re- deathbed. Economic reconstruction and emerges in the community. This is a lesson we administrative, health management, recreational, have learned from environmental surveillance of educational, and religious activities require social the polio eradication programme. interactions. However, social interactions will The critical intervention tools are vaccines to promote virus transmission when it is endemic, a build herd immunity sufficient to interrupt potential catch-22. transmission. Currently several vaccine candidates Most important, we must galvanize the world are in the pipeline. We expect more than one to prepare for eradication while the memory of the vaccine to be on the market by 2021. Since nightmare of the pandemic remains fresh in the infection and transmission are based on upper public’s mind and when public cooperation can respiratory mucosal infection, the best vaccine that readily be solicited. Technically, the best offers upper respiratory mucosal protection should opportunity to eradicate the coronavirus will be in be used for eradication. Since basic reproduction the near-term, when herd immunity will be number Ro is below 4, theoretically the herd extremely high as the pandemic peaks and evolves immunity threshold for interruption of as pan-endemic. transmission would be about 75%.9 Vaccination coverage has to top up the existing herd immunity What will it take to develop a global due to natural infection. Vaccine efficacy will agenda for eradication? determine the coverage needed: the higher the Eradication becomes a global agenda only efficacy, the lower the coverage needed. when the World Health Assembly passes a resolution to commit the World Health Why think of eradication when the Organisation and its member nations to join in pandemic is still on? partnership to achieve this goal. For the reasons Wisdom calls for early eradication of the argued above, eradication must be achieved in the virus without providing it time and opportunity to shortest possible time—ideally as short as five better adapt to human hosts and alter behaviour, years or perhaps a little longer, according to
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