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Socio-Economic Perspectives

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Socio-Economic Perspectives Limpopo Water Management Area North Reconciliation Strategy Date: February 2016 Phase 1: Study planning and Process PWMA 01/000/00/02914/1 Initiation Inception Report Phase 2: Study Implementation PWMA 01/000/00/02914/2 Literature Review PWMA 01/000/00/02914/3/1 PWMA 01/000/00/02914/3 Supporting Document 1: Hydrological Analysis Rainfall Data Analysis PWMA 01/000/00/02914/4/1 PWMA 01/000/00/02914/4 Supporting Document 1: Water Requirements and Return Flows Irrigation Assessment PWMA 01/000/00/02914/5 PWMA 01/000/00/02914/4/2 Water Quality Assessment Supporting Document 2: Water Conservation and Water Demand PWMA 01/000/00/02914/6 Management (WCWDM) Status Groundwater Assessment and Utilisation PWMA 01/000/00/02914/4/3 Supporting Document 3: PWMA 01/000/00/02914/7 Socio-Economic Perspective on Water Yield analysis (WRYM) Requirements PWMA 01/000/00/02914/8 PWMA 01/000/00/02914/7/1 Water Quality Modelling Supporting Document 1: Reserve Requirement Scenarios PWMA 01/000/00/02914/9 Planning Analysis (WRPM) PWMA 01/000/00/02914/10/1 PWMA 01/000/00/02914/10 Supporting Document 1: Water Supply Schemes Opportunities for Water Reuse PWMA 01/000/00/02914/11A PWMA 01/000/00/02914/10/2 Preliminary Reconciliation Strategy Supporting Document 2: Environmental and Social Status Quo PWMA 01/000/00/02914/11B Final Reconciliation Strategy PWMA 01/000/00/02914/10/3 Supporting Document 3: PWMA 01/000/00/02914/12 Screening Workshop Starter Document International Obligations PWMA 01/000/00/02914/13 Training Report P WMA 01/000/00/02914/14 Phase 3: Study Termination Close-out Report Limpopo Water Management Area North Reconciliation Strategy i TABLE OF CONTENTS Page 1 INTRODUCTION .............................................................................................................. 1-1 1.1 Appointment of professional service provider (PSP) ........................................... 1-1 1.2 Background to the Project .................................................................................. 1-1 1.3 Study Area ......................................................................................................... 1-3 1.4 Main objectives of the study ............................................................................... 1-6 1.5 Purpose of this report ......................................................................................... 1-6 2 DEMOGRAPHICS ............................................................................................................ 2-1 2.1 Current situation ................................................................................................. 2-1 2.2 Population growth projections ............................................................................. 2-7 3 DOMESTIC WATER AND SANITATION SERVICE LEVELS ...................................................... 3-1 3.1 Water service levels ........................................................................................... 3-1 3.2 Sanitation service levels ..................................................................................... 3-4 4 DOMESTIC WATER REQUIREMENT PROJECTIONS ............................................................. 4-1 5 HOUSEHOLD INCOME DISTRIBUTION ............................................................................... 5-1 6 INDUSTRIAL WATER REQUIREMENTS ............................................................................... 6-1 7 SUMMARY ..................................................................................................................... 7-1 8 REFERENCES ................................................................................................................ 8-1 APPENDICES APPENDIX A POPULATION PROJECTIONS PER CATCHMENT P WMA 01/000/00/02914/4/3 – Supporting Document 3: Socio-Economic Perspective on Future Water Requirements Limpopo Water Management Area North Reconciliation Strategy ii LIST OF FIGURES Page Figure 1.1: Overview of the catchments of the Limpopo WMA North .................................. 1-2 Figure 1.2: General layout of the study area ....................................................................... 1-5 Figure 2.1 Population in the catchments ........................................................................... 2-3 Figure 2.2 Number of settlements in the different catchments ........................................... 2-4 Figure 2.3 Project area population according to District Municipalities .............................. 2-5 Figure 2.4 Urban rural profile of the Study Area ................................................................ 2-6 Figure 3.1 Household water service levels in Limpopo WMA North (2011) ....................... 3-2 Figure 3.2 Household water service levels per catchment ................................................. 3-3 Figure 3.3 Households per catchment below RDP sanitation service levels (2011) ........... 3-5 Figure 4.1 Residential water requirements per catchment (million m3/a) ........................... 4-6 Figure 5.1 Primary household income groups in the Study Area ....................................... 5-2 Figure 5.2 Household income distribution per catchment (2011 %) ................................... 5-2 Figure 6.1 Project locality of proposed new coal mines ..................................................... 6-3 LIST OF TABLES Page Table 2.1 Summary of Limpopo WMA demographics ....................................................... 2-1 Table 2.2 Summary of Limpopo WMA demographics at the catchment level .................... 2-2 Table 2.3 Project area population per District and Local Municipality (2011) ..................... 2-5 Table 2.4 Urban-rural population profile per catchment (2011) ......................................... 2-6 Table 2.5 Summary of projected population growth rates per catchment .......................... 2-8 Table 3.1 Household water service levels in the Limpopo WMA North (2011)................... 3-1 Table 3.2 Primary household sources of water in Limpopo WMA North (2011) ................. 3-3 Table 3.3 Sanitation service level for Limpopo WMA North (2011) .................................... 3-5 Table 4.1 Residential water demand projections for Limpopo WMA North: Base-case ..... 4-2 Table 4.2 Alternative scenario for residential water requirements ..................................... 4-5 P WMA 01/000/00/02914/4/3 – Supporting Document 3: Socio-Economic Perspective on Future Water Requirements Limpopo Water Management Area North Reconciliation Strategy iii Table 4.3 Residential water requirement projections per catchment (million m3/a) ............ 4-6 Table 4.4 Projected residential water requirements or the Lephalala catchment ............... 4-7 Table 4.5 Projected residential water requirements for the Mokolo catchment .................. 4-8 Table 4.6 Projected residential water requirements for the Mogalakwena catchment ........ 4-9 Table 4.7 Projected residential water requirements for the Nzhelele catchment .............. 4-10 Table 4.8 Projected residential water requirements for the Sand catchment ................... 4-11 Table 5.1 Household income distribution per catchment in the Study Area ....................... 5-1 Table 6.1 Total estimated water requirement in Polokwane LM: 2014-2035 (million m3/a) ..................................................................................................... 6-1 Table 6.2 Estimated water requirements for mining in Makhado (million m3/a) .................. 6-2 Table 6.3 Summary of projected non-domestic water requirements in the Sand catchment (million m3/a) .................................................................................... 6-3 Table 6.4 Total estimated non-domestic water requirements in Limpopo WMA North (million m3/a) ..................................................................................................... 6-5 Table 6.5 Total estimated water requirements (million m3/a) in Limpopo WMA North........ 6-5 Table 7.1 Total estimated domestic water requirements (million m3/a) in Limpopo WMA North ....................................................................................................... 7-2 LIST OF UNITS a annum ha hectare kℓ kilolitre km kilometer km2 square kilometre ℓ/c/d liter per capita per day ℓ/s litre per second m metre m³ cubic meter m³/a cubic meter per annum Mℓ/d megalitre per day mm millimetre m3/ha/a cubic meter per hectare per annum P WMA 01/000/00/02914/4/3 – Supporting Document 3: Socio-Economic Perspective on Future Water Requirements Limpopo Water Management Area North Reconciliation Strategy iv LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS AECOM AECOM SA (Pty) Ltd CoAL Coal of Africa Limited DGP District Growth Point DM District Municipality DWA Department of Water Affairs DWS Department of Water and Sanitation LEIP Limpopo Eco-Industrial Park LM Local Municipality LSP Local service points MCWAP Mokolo-Crocodile Water Augmentation Project MGP Municipal Growth Point ORWRDP Olifants River Water Resources Development Project PCP Population concentration points PGP Provincial Growth Point RDP Reconstruction and Development Programme SEZ Special Economic Zone Stats SA Statistics South Africa WCWDM Water Conservation and Water Demand Management WMA Water Management Area WRPM Water Resources Planning Model WRSM2000 Water Resources Simulation Model 2000 WRYM Water Resources Yield Model WSA Water Service Authority P WMA 01/000/00/02914/4/3 – Supporting Document 3: Socio-Economic Perspective on Future Water Requirements Limpopo Water Management Area North
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